Is a Major Market Correction Really a Concern?

The screens have started to look familiar again: red across the indices, breathless posts about “the big one,” and viral charts warning that it’s “not the time to buy the dip.” In recent days, two headlines in particular have poured gasoline on the narrative—and they deserve serious scrutiny.

Warren Buffett published his final letter as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, formally handing the reins to Greg Abel. Separately, Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in “The Big Short,” announced he is shutting down Scion Asset Management, telling clients his view of value is no longer “in sync with the markets.”

Social media quickly turned this into a story of two legends “quitting” at the same time because a crash is imminent. The reality is more nuanced—and considerably more important for anyone managing capital in today’s environment.

This article represents the first half of a critical project: a deep dive into the evidence. The second half—how to turn this analysis into a practical crash playbook for traders—will follow separately.

1. The Week the Legends Stepped Aside

What Buffett Actually Said

On November 10, Berkshire Hathaway released Warren Buffett’s final shareholder letter as CEO. At 95, he is stepping down from the chief executive role after roughly six decades, with long-time lieutenant Greg Abel formally taking over. Buffett will remain chairman and has signaled he will continue writing annual letters and directing his vast personal stake.

The line that went viral was this:

“Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.”

Taken in isolation, it sounds like a warning that a 50% wipeout is around the corner. In context, it is something closer to a reminder of basic market physics: even great businesses suffer brutal drawdowns, and long-term shareholders must be psychologically prepared for them.

Buffett is not moving to cash, liquidating Berkshire, or predicting a date for the next crash. He is executing a long-planned succession and preaching the same discipline he has for decades: accept volatility, avoid leverage, and think in decades.

What Burry Actually Said

Michael Burry’s move is different in nature. Regulatory filings show that Scion Asset Management terminated its SEC registration on November 10, effectively ending its life as a registered hedge fund. In an October 27 letter to investors, Burry wrote:

“My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.”

He told clients he would liquidate the funds and return capital by year-end, with a small holdback for audit and tax purposes. The message is fairly direct: in his view, prices—especially in AI-related names—have become so disconnected from fundamentals that running a traditional value-oriented, often contrarian fund is no longer attractive.

What it is not is a guarantee that the crash he fears will materialize on schedule. His warning deserves serious attention, but pattern recognition suggests caution about drawing immediate conclusions.

2. Valuations: How Expensive Is “Expensive”?

If we want to know whether a large drawdown is plausible, we must start with valuations. Here the numbers are unambiguous: U.S. equities are expensive by almost any historical yardstick.

As of early November, FactSet estimates the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 at roughly 22–23 times earnings, compared with a 10-year average around 18–19 times. That puts today’s market in roughly the top decile of valuations since 1990, according to percentile charts reproduced in the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.

One widely followed analysis estimates that the S&P 500 trades about 60% above its long-term trend valuation, implying below-average 10-year forward returns and a high probability of at least one deep correction along the way. None of these models can time a sell-off—but they do tell us the downside distance is large if sentiment were to normalize.

A Market Dominated by Seven Stocks

The valuation problem is amplified dramatically by concentration. The “Magnificent Seven”—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—now account for roughly one-third to 37% of the entire S&P 500 by market value, up from about 20% in 2023.

Several of these stocks trade on forward P/Es dramatically higher than the market average, and their average five-year return has exceeded 300%, versus under 100% for the rest of the index. Nvidia alone now represents around 7–8% of the S&P 500, roughly equal in weight to the smallest 200-plus companies combined in some estimates.

Official Warnings About an AI-Driven Bubble

This is not just the worry of a few bloggers or Twitter accounts. Major financial institutions are sounding alarms:

The IMF’s October 2025 Global Financial Stability Report concludes that risk asset prices, especially U.S. equities, appear stretched relative to fundamentals, and notes that a narrow group of IT and AI-related stocks are predominantly driving the S&P 500. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned in October that the risk of a sharp market correction has increased, specifically highlighting the danger that AI-pumped tech stocks could slump and trigger broader stress.

3. Macro and Credit: Late in the Cycle, But Not Obviously Broken

High valuations alone do not cause crashes. Price collapses usually need a catalyst: recession, credit stress, a policy shock, or some combination. So what does the macro backdrop actually look like?

Growth and Jobs: Cooling, Not Collapsing

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects U.S. real GDP growth of about 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2024 but still solid by advanced-economy standards. Global growth is pegged around 3.2%.

The unemployment picture is softer but not alarming. Official data show the U.S. unemployment rate rising to around 4.3% in August 2025, the highest in roughly four years but far below recession peaks. A Cleveland Fed model that uses the yield curve and sentiment puts the probability that the U.S. was in recession in October at about 24%—elevated, but not a sure thing.

Put simply: the economy looks late-cycle and fragile, but not yet in full-blown contraction. The best models say the odds of recession are meaningfully higher than normal but far from certain.

Credit Markets: Watchful, Not Panicked

If systemic trouble were close, we would normally expect to see stress build in corporate bond spreads and funding markets. Instead, the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread—a standard measure of junk-bond risk—is currently just over 3.0 percentage points above Treasuries, below its long-term average and far from the 6–8 point blowouts seen in past crises.

Credit investors are not yet demanding crisis-level compensation for taking risk. That can change quickly, but as of now it argues against the idea that a 2008-style event is already unfolding beneath the surface.

4. Putting the Pieces Together: What Kind of Risk Are We Really Facing?

When you combine elevated valuations and sky-high concentration in a narrow set of AI leaders with official warnings from the IMF and Bank of England about the risk of a sharp correction, all against a macro backdrop that is clearly late-cycle but not yet in full crisis, several conclusions emerge.

Scenario 1: AI-Led Deep Correction (High Probability)

It is not hard to sketch a “bubble snaps” scenario. AI capex and earnings growth slow or fail to meet the market’s extremely aggressive expectations. A handful of mega-caps that now represent more than a third of the S&P 500 suffer large multiple compression. Index funds and systematic strategies become forced sellers as those names fall, pulling down the broader benchmarks.

Scenario 2: Systemic 2008-Style Crisis (Lower Probability, Real Tail Risk)

For a full-scale crash, we would likely need more than just valuations: some combination of recession, credit stress, and policy error that pushes high-yield spreads sharply higher and freezes funding markets. Perhaps a misstep around sovereign debt or long-duration bond holdings, given the heavy fiscal overhang the IMF also flags.

Right now, those ingredients exist as vulnerabilities, not as active fires. Credit spreads are calm, unemployment is rising only slowly, and the Fed is leaning toward easing rather than tightening into weakness. The data indicate elevated, not extreme, stress.

The Real Risk: High Downside If the Mood Turns

The most honest way to summarize the situation is this: The market is priced as if AI-driven profit growth will remain very strong, and as if policy will be able to manage inflation and growth smoothly. At the same time, key official institutions are warning that valuations are stretched and that a “disorderly” correction is more likely than in recent years.

5. Where Buffett and Burry Actually Fit Into This Picture

Buffett and Burry are best understood as two very different expressions of the same discomfort with today’s market structure.

Buffett is not calling a top; he is reminding shareholders that 50% drawdowns have occurred three times during his tenure and will happen again. His response is to maintain a permanent capital base, hand the operational wheel to Abel, and keep compounding regardless of near-term turbulence.

Burry is voting with his feet: stepping back from managing outside money because the gap between his sense of value and the market’s is too wide for his style to function comfortably.

Neither action proves that a crash has already started. What they do confirm is that some of the most experienced investors on the planet see this regime as unusually unstable.

6. What This Means for Traders—And What Comes Next

For traders and active investors, the implications are straightforward:

The real edge comes from having predefined rules for how you will change behavior as objective stress indicators cross key thresholds. This article has focused on the diagnosis: what Buffett and Burry actually did, how expensive the market is, which institutions are sounding the alarm, and where the macro and credit tapes stand today.

The market may not be broken yet. But it is fragile in ways that demand respect—and preparation.