Essential Guides
Start here. These in-depth guides explain the institutional concepts behind every Market Outlook: gamma exposure, dealer positioning, market internals, and key S&P 500 price zones.
Market Outlook
Institutional ES futures and SPY options research, gamma levels, and key zones for trading the S&P 500.
Crude Oil Compresses at the Pivot Into an Unpriced Weekend
Crude oil settled 83.40 Friday, compressed above every major average with the weekend Hormuz headlines unpriced. Monday's plan buys the demand band at 82.40.
Gold Outlook: Fade the Bounce After a Hawkish Break
Gold broke 2.88 percent to settle at 4,529.9 on a hawkish Fed repricing; the desk fades a relief bounce into the 4,577 to 4,609 band, with a stop above 4,645.
Nasdaq-100 (NQ) Outlook: Fading the Retest Into the 50-Day Shelf
The September Nasdaq-100 settled 29,491.75 in the bottom sixth of its range as rate-hike odds jumped. Monday fades a failed retest toward the 29,437 shelf.
S&P 500: Buying the Base After the Hawkish Reversal
The S&P futures lost the 20-day on a hawkish Fed reversal but held the weekly frame. Why Monday buys the 7,710 base into a data-empty session, stop ES 7,692.
Crude Oil Defends a Higher Low as the Rally Cools After the Close
Crude oil settled 83.53 Thursday, defending a higher low as a Hormuz de-escalation headline cooled the rally after the close. Friday buys the pullback to 82.40.
Gold Outlook: Compressed at the 200-Day Into Jackson Hole
Gold settled at 4,642.4, compressed at its 200-day average into the Jackson Hole address; the desk favors a long off support with a stop under the 4,616 base.
Nasdaq-100 (NQ) Outlook: An AI Reset Reclaims the Averages Before the Symposium
Nasdaq-100 settled 29,695.75 on a narrow, AI-led advance and negative breadth. Friday buys the pullback shelf ahead of the 10:00 AM ET event risk near 29,495.
S&P 500: Buying the Pullback Into the Symposium
The S&P futures reclaimed the 20-day on a narrow, tech-led advance. Why Friday buys the 7,726 to 7,734 pullback into the symposium, with the stop at ES 7,711.
Crude Oil: Buying the Reversal Base
Crude oil reversed off a 79.62 low to settle at 82.23 into a headline-driven Thursday. Why the plan buys the 79.85 to 80.45 base, with 78.85 the line.
Gold Rejects a One-Month High: Why 4,703 Decides Thursday's Tilt
Gold reversed off a one-month high as long-end yields and the dollar firmed, settling 4,653.3 with a downside tilt below the 4,703 pivot toward 4,638.
Nasdaq-100: Buying the Overnight Reclaim
A chip-earnings beat gapped the Nasdaq back above its 20-day and 50-day band after the close. Why Thursday buys the 29,470 to 29,500 pullback, stop 29,415.
S&P 500: Buying the Retest After the Nvidia Gap
Nvidia's beat gapped the S&P futures to 7,741 overnight. Why Thursday's plan buys the 7,713 to 7,721 retest rather than chasing, with the pivot at ES 7,710.
Crude Oil: Selling the Rally Into Inventories
Crude settled at 82.36 on a heavy session into Wednesday's inventory report. Why the plan sells the 82.10 to 82.60 rally, with 83.35 the stop.
Gold: Holding the High Into the Inflation Print
Gold held near a high at 4,694 into Wednesday's inflation print. Why the plan dip-buys the 4,655 to 4,662 band, with 4,640 the line.
Nasdaq-100: Fading the Bounce Ahead of PCE
The Nasdaq rose 0.59 percent to 29,277 but the push stalled. Why Wednesday fades the 29,310 to 29,375 bounce ahead of PCE, with 29,435 the stop.
S&P 500: Buying the Dip Into the PCE Print
The S&P firmed to 7,692 before Wednesday's PCE print. Why the plan buys the 7,663 to 7,675 support band, with 7,651 the line.
Crude Oil: A Risk Premium Bleeding Out
Crude fell 2.35 percent to an 85.01 October settle as a risk premium bled out. Why Tuesday sells rallies into 85.08 to 85.67, with 86.15 the stop.
Gold: Grinding to New Highs, Buy the Dip
Gold pressed to another high near 4,698 on a soft dollar. Why Tuesday dip-buys the 4,645 to 4,662 pocket rather than chasing, with 4,600 the line.
Nasdaq-100: A Sharp Drop, and a Bounce to Buy
The Nasdaq dropped 0.96 percent to 29,106. Why Tuesday buys the 28,950 to 29,030 support band on a bounce, with 28,860 the stop.
S&P 500: Buying the Dip Off a Dense Support Shelf
The S&P eased to 7,669 into a light Tuesday. Why the plan buys the 7,648 to 7,658 support shelf, with 7,634 the line.
Crude Oil: A Firm Settle Ahead of a Monday Catalyst
Crude firmed to an 87.06 October settle before a tentative Monday catalyst. Why the plan buys the 85.80 to 86.30 band, with 85.20 the stop.
Gold: A Fresh High, and Where to Buy the Pullback
Gold jumped 2.39 percent to a fresh high near 4,681 on a weak dollar. Why Monday dip-buys the 4,610 to 4,645 band rather than chasing, with 4,558 the line.
Nasdaq-100: A Bounce Off Support Worth Buying
The Nasdaq settled at 29,388 after a bounce off the 20-day. Why Monday buys the 29,240 to 29,300 support band, with 29,175 the stop.
S&P 500: A Constructive Read Into a Light Monday
The S&P firmed to 7,691 into a light Monday calendar. Why the plan buys the 7,663 to 7,672 shelf above the gamma flip, with 7,646 the line.