In the 7:30 PM ET half hour on Wednesday evening, November crude printed 88.77, the low of Thursday’s session. The 11:00 AM ET bar held the high, 93.20. The contract settled at 91.49 at 2:30 PM ET, up 3.21 points or 3.64 percent from Wednesday’s 88.28. Volume printed 303,313 contracts on the provider’s dated daily record for Thursday, against 295,162 on Wednesday’s revised row.
The settle finished at 61.4 percent of a 4.43 point range, 1.71 points beneath the high. That range ran 0.98 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.52 points and was the widest since the 5.62 point range of 10/02. The gain was the largest since the 3.61 point gain of 09/15. The settle was the highest since the 92.87 settle of 10/01. Higher high, higher low. Only selected 30-minute bars were preserved, so nothing here describes the path between them.
Provider commentary said crude settled sharply higher on signs of possible escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. It cited a press report that the White House had asked for strike options. The same commentary cited record freight costs for cargoes leaving the Middle East and Gulf of Mexico shut-ins of more than 1.28 million barrels a day ahead of Hurricane Isaias. The commentary also said prices fell from their highs in the afternoon after the President said the United States would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections, a statement the news feed carried at 12:17 PM ET. That account is the commentary’s. No price move here is tied to a specific headline. December Brent rose 4.08 to 104.28. The dollar index slipped 0.10 percent to 102.14, and the ten-year yield index eased four basis points to 5.23 percent. Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here. Its published 14-day average true range of 4.11 points is 4.49 percent of the settle.
November WTI settled up 3.21 at 91.49, at 61.4 percent of an 88.77 to 93.20 range. Support starts at the 91.15 Pivot Point, then the 90.56 9-day average, the 90.35 relative-strength midpoint, the 90.30 9-day crossing and one deviation support at 90.16. Pivot S1 sits at 89.11. Overhead sit the 91.87 target price, the 92.04 to 92.82 band and Thursday’s 93.20 high, then Pivot R1 at 93.54. The primary setup is a long from 90.15 to 90.45, stop 88.95, targets 91.65, 93.00 and 94.35. The captured calendars carry no crude-specific release for Friday; in our judgment the Iran strike-plan press reports and the mine reports matter more than any scheduled item, with a weekend ahead.
Thursday’s short, graded against the bar
Thursday’s card was a short. That outlook set it from a rally into 90.00 to 90.30, around one deviation resistance at 90.07 and Pivot R1 at 90.19. The stop sat at 91.45. Targets sat at 88.85, 87.55 and 86.25, with an outright invalidation on a settle above 91.38. Thursday opened at 89.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a 93.20 high and an 88.77 low, and settled at 91.49. The dated 10/08 row of the provider’s daily record carries the same four prices.
We put the entry band at 90.00 to 90.30. It traded. So did the 91.45 stop, and so did the 88.85 first target. All three sit inside a 4.43 point range: the low ran 1.23 points beneath the band’s lower edge, the high 1.75 above the stop, and the 88.77 low eight cents through the first target.
A few prints can be placed. The session’s first bar, at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, traded 88.80 to 89.06. That range holds the 88.85 first target, and its high sat 94 cents beneath the band. The 7:30 PM ET bar that evening held the 88.77 low. The 11:00 AM ET bar on Thursday held the 93.20 high. No bar in between was preserved. When the band and the stop first traded cannot be shown, and this outlook asserts no fill and no result for the card.
The deeper targets stayed out of reach. The 87.55 second target sat 1.22 points beneath the low. The 86.25 third target sat 2.52 beneath it.
The outright invalidation was met. The card negated the thesis on a settle above 91.38, and Thursday settled at 91.49, 11 cents above it and four cents above the stop. The card also removed the edge on acceptance above Wednesday’s 90.98 high, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above it. Whether that printed during the session cannot be shown. The 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settle, closed at 91.18.
The macro override named a confirmed halt of tanker traffic through the Strait, or more Gulf output halted by the storm. Its test was a gap above the 91.45 stop. No such gap came. The 6:00 PM ET reopen printed 89.00, 2.45 points beneath the stop. At 1:24 PM ET the news feed did carry that 1.3 million barrels a day, or 63 percent, of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut in.
The range work missed high. The low-range case, 87.60 to 89.60, held the low with 1.17 to spare, and the high ran 3.60 above its top. The most likely band, 86.90 to 90.30, gave way by 2.90 at the high. The settle sat 1.19 above it. Even the high-range case, 84.20 to 92.30, missed by 90 cents at the high, with the settle 81 cents inside its top.
The path call missed too. That outlook expected the contract to hold between Pivot S1 at 87.17 and the 90.07 to 90.23 band. It weighted a rally that failed beneath Wednesday’s 90.98 high above a sustained break higher. The high ran 2.22 past 90.98. The named alternative was a lift through 91.38 toward Pivot R2 at 92.09. Its price leg came. The high cleared 92.09 by 1.11, and the settle held 11 cents above 91.38. The daily bar cannot say which headline, if any, lay behind it.
The session bands score only in part. Globex at 87.60 to 89.60 held the first bar and the 88.77 low; the rest of that window left no bars. London at 87.40 to 89.80 cannot be scored at all. The 11:00 AM ET bar’s 93.20 high sat 3.00 above the morning band’s 90.20 top. The 91.49 settle, struck at 2:30 PM ET, sat 1.69 above the afternoon band’s 89.80 top.
The largest gain since 09/15, the widest range since 10/02
Thursday opened at 89.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 72 cents above Wednesday’s settle. It marked a daily high of 93.20 and a daily low of 88.77, and settled at 91.49 at 2:30 PM ET. The chart’s 30-minute bars, recorded when the data were read, place the low inside the 7:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening. They place the high inside the 11:00 AM ET bar. Only the extremes and selected bars survive. No claim is made about the path between them.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 91.49 at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the 4:30 PM ET bar traded 90.71 to 91.19 and closed at 91.18. That quote is not used as the settlement anywhere here. Friday’s session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. The provider’s day open, high and low of 91.29, 91.37 and 90.94, shown when the data were read, belong to that new session.
The extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from its outer pairs. Pivot R3 at 97.97 minus Pivot S3 at 84.68, divided by three, returns 4.43. So does 95.58 less 86.72, halved. Three times the 91.15 Pivot Point less the 91.49 settle gives a 181.96 high-plus-low sum. That is one cent from the 181.97 of the solved pair, because the published pivot is rounded. The pair of 93.20 and 88.77 reproduces all seven rungs. The settlement row and the chart’s completed Thursday bar carry the same high and low.
Both extremes sit above Wednesday’s. The 93.20 high sits 2.22 points above Wednesday’s 90.98, and the 88.77 low 81 cents above Wednesday’s 87.96. Session highs over the last six sessions read 93.68, 93.51, 91.88, 90.05, 90.98 and 93.20. The lows read 88.79, 87.89, 88.74, 86.86, 87.96 and 88.77. Settlements ran 92.87, 91.11, 89.43, 89.44, 88.28 and 91.49. The settle at 61.4 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 1.71 points on the daily bar.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 96.54 to 87.89. Thursday’s range sits inside it. This week, October 5 through Thursday, has spanned 93.20 to 86.86. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 10.20 points above the settle. The one-month low of 86.86 sits 4.63 points beneath it. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes stand in: 101.69 above and 70.19 beneath.
Ranges widened again. Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 5.96, 3.38, 4.89, 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02 and 4.43. Thursday ended a run of three sessions with ranges near three points. Settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 3.22, plus 1.04, plus 2.45, minus 1.76, minus 1.68, plus 0.01, minus 1.16 and plus 3.21.
The retracement grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 89.66. That is 1.83 points beneath the settle. The 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 85.94. Above the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.53, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02. No four-hour series was captured. Swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
Averages come from the provider’s daily settlement series for the November contract, 259 completed sessions through Thursday. The 5-day stands at 89.95, the 9-day at 90.56, the 20-day at 93.09, the 50-day at 86.72, the 100-day at 82.00 and the 200-day at 75.66. The settle sits 1.54 points above the 5-day, 93 cents above the 9-day and 4.77 above the 50-day. Only the 20-day sits overhead, 1.60 points up.
The short averages still slipped. The 5-day fell 28 cents from Wednesday’s 90.23 as the 10/01 settle of 92.87 left its window and 91.49 replaced it. The 9-day fell 10 cents from 90.66 as the 09/25 settle of 92.41 left. The 20-day fell 35 cents from 93.43 as the 09/10 settle of 98.40 left. The 50-day rose 24 cents from 86.49 as the 07/29 settle of 79.68 left its window. The 20-day still sits above the 50-day. The last 20 settlements averaged 93.09 against 86.72 for the full 50, so the 30 older settlements in the window averaged 82.48. The projection grid puts Friday’s 9-day crossing at 90.30, the 18-day at 92.23 and the 40-day at 89.40.
Momentum sits near the middle. The oscillator figures are as published on the provider’s technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. That page may carry the live Globex price, so the readings are quoted as published. Relative strength reads 51.40 on the 9-day, 52.41 on the 14-day and 53.70 on the 20-day. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 47.83 percent and the 14-day 44.69 percent. The smoothed lines lag. The 14-day %K reads 26.86 percent and %D 20.79 percent, both in the lower half of their range.
Positive direction leads on both horizons. On the 9-day the directional index reads 18.27, with positive direction at 20.07 over negative at 13.93. The 14-day reads 22.59, positive at 21.11 over negative at 14.40. Historic volatility runs 34.50 percent on the 9-day and 36.96 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read for the Friday session rose to 32 percent buy from 8 percent in the prior session’s snapshot. Signal strength is described as average and direction as strengthening. It read 32 percent a week ago and 88 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 20 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy. The composite trend indicator reads hold.
Volatility sets the scale. The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.11 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.52. The 9-day figures are 4.22 and 4.32, the 20-day figures 3.95 and 4.38. Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range from 91.49 frames Friday between 87.38 and 95.60. The published deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements. One deviation spans 90.16 to 92.82, two spans 89.61 to 93.37 and three spans 89.19 to 93.79. The bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
Iran headlines, a Gulf storm and a wider Brent premium
Iran headlines ran all session. Between 11:44 AM ET and 11:48 AM ET the news feed carried statements from Iran’s military that its navy is ready to respond to unauthorized vessels in waters under its control. It also carried Houthi claims of missile attacks on Riyadh’s airport and on Najran.
At 12:17 PM ET and 12:21 PM ET the news feed carried the President’s statements that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, and that conversations with Iran were productive. The midterm elections are listed for November 3, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Provider commentary said prices fell from their highs in the afternoon after that statement. The link is the commentary’s. No intraday series was preserved to test it. At 12:58 PM ET the news feed carried that the Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels carrying Iranian oil.
More came after the settle. At 4:15 PM ET and 4:16 PM ET, per the news feed, Iran’s president said Iran will not leave the negotiating table and that proposals exchanged through intermediaries will be finalised. At 4:17 PM ET the news feed carried an Iranian state media report attributing explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz to tankers striking mines. Later reports went further. Between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET press reports said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran’s drone and missile arsenal, and that three aircraft carriers would soon be in the region. None was confirmed here.
Russia and Ukraine drew two items. At 3:12 PM ET the feed carried that United States envoys will meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Friday, per a source. At 3:32 PM ET it carried that the Kremlin agrees the conflict is in a stalemate.
Supply news pulled both ways. No new statement from the producer alliance was captured. At 2:16 PM ET the news feed carried that Venezuela’s oil output is up 8 percent this year. At 1:05 PM ET it carried that a large Saudi refinery has been repaired, per the chief executive of the company that runs it. At 12:44 PM ET it carried the same executive’s remark that oil prices are reaching exorbitant levels. A press report carried at 11:19 AM ET said most of the ownership in a proposed oil deal between the United States and Russia would go to Middle Eastern funds. None of these figures was measured here.
No inventory report came on Thursday. The previous weekly petroleum status report, released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, showed a crude draw of 3.186 million barrels against a forecast build of 1.915 million, per the news-feed calendar. The next one comes late. The calendar lists it for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. At 11:18 AM ET the news feed carried that the administration’s diesel executive order was published in the federal register. At 1:32 PM ET it carried a White House adviser saying refineries are turning back on.
The storm stayed in the headlines. At 1:24 PM ET the news feed carried that 1.3 million barrels a day, or 63 percent, of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut in. At 4:16 PM ET it carried a news feed report that Hurricane Isaias has shut in 1.28 million barrels a day. Products settled higher too. The November gasoline contract settled at 3.3160 dollars a gallon, up 0.0818 or 2.53 percent, and November heating oil at 4.8829, up 0.2602, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider’s settlement rows. On the settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, stands at 47.78 dollars a barrel against 47.56 on Wednesday. The heating oil margin stands at 113.59 against 105.87. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
Rates eased. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points, and the thirty-year yield index at 5.61 percent. A thirty-year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 5.618 percent with a bid-to-cover of 2.540, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The news feed described a tail of 0.1 basis point. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand against a forecast of 200 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The dollar index closed at 102.14, down 0.10 percent, after a session range of 102.03 to 102.47, per the provider’s quote.
Brent ran harder. Its December contract settled at 104.28, up 4.08 or 4.07 percent, so its premium over November WTI widened to 12.79 from 11.92. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,765.36, down 0.47 percent. Gold’s December contract settled at 4,157.0, up 16.3 points or 0.39 percent.
Positioning data have not moved. The latest report on the provider’s overview is still the one as of September 29, 2026: managed money long 209,028 contracts against short 129,436, a net long of 79,592, with commercials 873,637 long against 1,016,255 short. No change in positioning is asserted for Thursday. The overview shows open interest on the November contract at 206,677. That is Wednesday’s figure, on the dated 10/07 row, down from 236,274 on Tuesday’s 10/06 row. Thursday’s open interest had not been reported. The provider lists the contract’s expiration as 10/20/26, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December grows over the coming sessions.
One gap is deliberate. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude: no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is borrowed from another instrument. The positioning inputs for crude are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
The trade map for Friday
Resistance starts 38 cents up. The settle at 91.49 sits 34 cents above the Pivot Point at 91.15, so the first resistance is the published target price at 91.87. A band follows. The 92.04 raw-stochastic midpoint price, the 18-day average crossing at 92.23, the 3-10 day average crossover stall at 92.39, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 and the 9-day average stall at 92.60 sit inside it. One deviation resistance at 92.82 caps it. The 20-day settlement average at 93.09 and Thursday’s 93.20 high come next. Two deviation resistance at 93.37, Pivot R1 at 93.54 and three deviation resistance at 93.79 follow. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28, Pivot R2 at 95.58, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02 and Pivot R3 at 97.97 are the extended references, with the 101.69 one-month high beyond.
Support begins at the 91.15 Pivot Point. The 9-day settlement average at 90.56 sits beneath it. The 90.35 relative-strength midpoint price, the 9-day average crossing at 90.30 and one deviation support at 90.16 form the band that anchors the setup. Then comes a crowd. The 89.97 raw-stochastic lower-band price and the 5-day settlement average at 89.95 sit two cents apart. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 89.66, two deviation support at 89.61, the 40-day average crossing at 89.40, three deviation support at 89.19 and Pivot S1 at 89.11 form the next grouping. Thursday’s 88.77 low, the moving-average convergence stall at 88.32 and Wednesday’s 88.28 settle follow. The 86.86 one-month low, Pivot S2 and the 50-day settlement average, both at 86.72, and Pivot S3 at 84.68 are the deeper references.
The primary setup is a long from a dip into 90.15 to 90.45, around one deviation support at 90.16 and the 9-day average crossing at 90.30. It needs a dip first. Thursday settled above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages. Positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite read rose to 32 percent buy with direction strengthening. A dip into that band offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11. Provider commentary tied Thursday’s pullback from the highs to the President’s statement, carried by the news feed, that no attack on Iran will come before the midterms. A de-escalation headline of that kind is the main risk to a long. So the setup is an analyst judgment against live headline risk. Risk is 1.35 from the 90.30 midpoint.
The band’s top sits 1.04 points beneath the settle. Friday’s session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday with the 4:17 PM ET mine report and the 4:42 PM ET to 4:45 PM ET press reports on Pentagon strike plans already out. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias is neutral to higher above the 91.15 Pivot Point. The expected Globex band is roughly 89.90 to 92.60, absent a headline shock. Gulf and Iran headlines are the gap risk in both directions.
Europe is quiet. A European Central Bank governing council member is listed at 3:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Thursday’s 4.43 point range shows that swings of four points remain possible inside a single session. Bias is neutral to higher, with an expected band of roughly 89.70 to 92.80. The 90.15 to 90.45 band is the first meaningful support beneath the Pivot Point.
Canada reports first. Canadian employment is listed at 8:30 AM ET with a forecast of 5 thousand jobs against a prior loss of 41.7 thousand, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, on the same basis. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey and its inflation expectations are listed at 10:00 AM ET, with a sentiment forecast of 47.6 and a one-year expectation forecast of 4.7 percent, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 89.60 to 93.00, with the 92.04 to 92.82 band the first meaningful resistance above the target price.
The weekend looms over the close. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET, the last settlement before a weekend in which the Iran strike-plan press reports and the Gulf storm outages remain open questions. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after the settle. Expected band roughly 89.60 to 93.20.
No session follows on Friday evening. Globex resumes at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11. The calendar lists Monday, October 12, as the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times. A weekend gap above Thursday’s 93.20 high or beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11 would reset the level map.
Next week fills up. The producer group’s monthly report is listed for Tuesday, October 13, on a calendar entry that itself marks the date unconfirmed. The calendar lists the consumer price index for September at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The captured calendars carry no crude-specific scheduled release for Friday and no mega-capitalisation earnings entry.
Three scenarios frame the full session. The low-range case runs 89.90 to 92.60, the mid-range case, which is the most likely, 89.10 to 93.50, and the high-range case 87.40 to 95.60. None carries a derived frequency. In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 89.11 and Pivot R1 at 93.54. In the same judgment Iran headlines decide the side. A dip toward the 90.15 to 90.45 band that holds above Pivot S1 is weighted above a break lower. Three readings carry that weighting. Thursday settled above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages. Positive direction leads on both directional systems. The composite read rose to 32 percent buy with direction strengthening. One alternative invalidates the reading. A confirmed de-escalation, such as progress through the intermediaries, that carries the contract through 89.11 toward the 86.86 one-month low would do it.
In our judgment the first-order influence on crude on Friday is unscheduled. It is whether the Pentagon strike-plan press reports and the mine reports escalate before the weekend, set against the President’s statement, per the news feed, that no attack will come before the midterms.
A day ago the card was a short from 90.00. Friday’s is a long from 15 cents higher.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
Carried below in the review’s own order: the level notes from sections 3.1 and 3.2, the executive summary from section 1, sections 2.1 to 2.6, sections 4.1 to 4.6, the coverage note from section 5, the session-by-session forecast from section 6, the Friday calendar from section 7 and the primary setup from section 8.
3.1 Resistance and 3.2 Support, level notes
The settle at 91.49 sits 34 cents above the Pivot Point at 91.15, so the first resistance is the published target price at 91.87. The 92.04 raw-stochastic midpoint price, the 18-day average crossing at 92.23, the 3-10 day average crossover stall at 92.39, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 and the 9-day average stall at 92.60 form a band beneath one standard deviation resistance at 92.82.
Thursday’s 93.20 high, two standard deviations resistance at 93.37, Pivot R1 at 93.54 and three standard deviations resistance at 93.79 come next. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28, Pivot R2 at 95.58, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02 and Pivot R3 at 97.97 are the extended references, with the 101.69 one-month high beyond.
Beneath the settle, the Pivot Point at 91.15 comes first, followed by the 90.35 relative-strength midpoint price, the 9-day average crossing at 90.30 and one standard deviation support at 90.16, the band that anchors the setup. The 89.97 raw-stochastic lower-band price, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 89.66, two standard deviations support at 89.61, the 40-day average crossing at 89.40, three standard deviations support at 89.19 and Pivot S1 at 89.11 form the next grouping. Thursday’s 88.77 low, the moving-average convergence stall at 88.32 and Wednesday’s 88.28 settle follow, then the 86.86 one-month low, Pivot S2 at 86.72, the 50-day settlement average at 86.72 and Pivot S3 at 84.68.
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 91.49 on Thursday, up 3.21 points or 3.64 percent from Wednesday’s settle of 88.28, after trading between 93.20 and 88.77, a 4.43 point daily range. The settle finished at 61.4 percent of the range, and the 4.43 point range was 0.98 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.52 points. Thursday printed a higher high and a higher low against Wednesday; the 3.21 point gain was the largest one-day gain since the 3.61 point gain of 09/15, the settle was the highest since the 92.87 settle of 10/01, and the range was the widest since the 5.62 point range of 10/02.
Provider commentary said crude settled sharply higher on signs of possible escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, after a press report that the White House had asked for strike options, on record freight costs for cargoes leaving the Middle East, and, in the commentary’s words, on Gulf of Mexico shut-ins of more than 1.28 million barrels a day ahead of Hurricane Isaias. The same commentary said prices fell from their highs in the afternoon after the President said the United States would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections, which are listed for November 3 per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed; the news feed carried that statement at 12:17 PM ET. Only a selected 30-minute bar record was captured, so no price move here is tied to a specific headline beyond that statement’s time stamp.
Brent’s December contract settled at 104.28, up 4.08 or 4.07 percent, so Brent’s premium over November WTI widened to 12.79 from 11.92. The ten-year yield index eased four basis points to 5.23 percent and the dollar index slipped 0.10 percent to 102.14. After the settle the news feed carried, at 4:17 PM ET, an Iranian state media report of explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz attributed to tankers striking mines. Between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET press reports said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran and that three aircraft carriers would soon be in the region.
Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here; the published 14-day average true range of 4.11 points is 4.49 percent of the settle, and Friday’s session runs into a weekend with these headlines unresolved. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 90.15 to 90.45 band, around one standard deviation support at 90.16 and the 9-day average crossing price at 90.30, stopped at 88.95 beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11, with objectives at 91.65, 93.00 and an extended 94.35.
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Thursday session opened at 89.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 72 cents above Wednesday’s settle, marked a daily high of 93.20 and a daily low of 88.77, and settled at 91.49 at 2:30 PM ET. The chart’s 30-minute bars place the 93.20 high inside the 11:00 AM ET bar and the 88.77 low inside the 7:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening. Only the session extremes and selected bars were preserved rather than a complete intraday series, so this outlook makes no claim about the path between those bars.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 91.49 at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the chart’s 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 91.18; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere here. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday; the provider’s day open, high and low of 91.29, 91.37 and 90.94 shown when the data were read belong to that new session, not to Thursday.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 97.97 minus the third support point at 84.68, divided by three, returns 4.43, and the second resistance point at 95.58 minus the second support point at 86.72, divided by two, returns the same 4.43. Three times the Pivot Point of 91.15 less the 91.49 settle gives a high plus low sum of 181.96, one cent from the 181.97 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 93.20 and 88.77 reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider’s settlement row and the chart’s completed Thursday daily bar carry the same 93.20 high and 88.77 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Thursday printed a higher high and a higher low against Wednesday: the 93.20 high sits 2.22 points above Wednesday’s 90.98, and the 88.77 low sits 81 cents above Wednesday’s 87.96. The settle at 61.4 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 1.71 points on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 93.68, 93.51, 91.88, 90.05, 90.98 and 93.20, and the sequence of session lows reads 88.79, 87.89, 88.74, 86.86, 87.96 and 88.77.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 96.54 to 87.89, and Thursday’s range sits inside it. This week, October 5 through Thursday, has spanned 93.20 to 86.86. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 10.20 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 86.86 sits 4.63 points beneath it. Settlements over the last six sessions ran 92.87, 91.11, 89.43, 89.44, 88.28 and 91.49.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 101.69 above and 70.19 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 5.96, 3.38, 4.89, 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02 and 4.43, so Thursday ended a run of three sessions with ranges near three points. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 3.22, plus 1.04, plus 2.45, minus 1.76, minus 1.68, plus 0.01, minus 1.16 and plus 3.21.
The retracement grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 89.66, 1.83 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 85.94. Above the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.53, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider’s daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Thursday. The 5-day average stands at 89.95, the 9-day at 90.56, the 20-day at 93.09, the 50-day at 86.72, the 100-day at 82.00 and the 200-day at 75.66.
The 91.49 settle sits 1.54 points above the 5-day average, 93 cents above the 9-day and 4.77 points above the 50-day, and 1.60 points beneath the 20-day. The 5-day average fell 28 cents from Wednesday’s 90.23, because the 10/01 settle of 92.87 left the window and was replaced by 91.49. The 9-day average fell 10 cents from 90.66 as the 09/25 settle of 92.41 left its window, and the 20-day fell 35 cents from 93.43 as the 09/10 settle of 98.40 left. The 50-day average rose 24 cents from 86.49 as the 07/29 settle of 79.68 left its window.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 93.09 against 86.72 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 82.48. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Friday: 90.30 for the 9-day, 92.23 for the 18-day and 89.40 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider’s technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page may carry the live Globex price rather than the settle, so they are quoted as published. The 9-day relative strength reads 51.40, the 14-day relative strength 52.41 and the 20-day relative strength 53.70.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 47.83 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 44.69 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 26.86 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 20.79 percent, so the smoothed lines remain in the lower half of their range.
The 9-day directional index reads 18.27 with the 9-day positive direction at 20.07 and the 9-day negative direction at 13.93; the 14-day directional index reads 22.59 with positive direction at 21.11 and negative direction at 14.40, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 34.50 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 36.96 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 32 percent buy, up from 8 percent buy in the prior session’s snapshot, with signal strength described as average and direction as strengthening. The snapshot history reads 32 percent buy a week ago and 88 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 20 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads hold.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.11 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.52 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.22 with a 9-day average daily range of 4.32, and the 20-day average true range is 3.95 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.38. Thursday’s 4.43 point range was 0.98 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.11 points from the 91.49 settle frames Friday between 87.38 and 95.60. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 90.16 to 92.82, two spans 89.61 to 93.37 and three spans 89.19 to 93.79. These bands measure how settlements have dispersed, and the high and low can run beyond them.
4.1 Producer Alliance and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi and Russia Signals)
No new statement from the producer alliance was captured on the feeds read for this session. The news feed carried at 2:16 PM ET that Venezuela’s oil output is up 8 percent this year, at 1:05 PM ET that a large Saudi refinery has been repaired, per the chief executive of the company that runs it, and at 12:44 PM ET the same executive’s remark that oil prices are reaching exorbitant levels. A press report carried at 11:19 AM ET said most of the ownership in a proposed oil deal between the United States and Russia would go to Middle Eastern funds. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than figures measured here.
4.2 Inventory Data (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, Strategic Reserve)
The calendars captured for this session contain no inventory release for Thursday. The previous weekly petroleum status report, released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, on the calendar, showed a crude draw of 3.186 million barrels against a forecast build of 1.915 million, per the news-feed calendar. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The news feed carried at 11:18 AM ET that the administration’s diesel executive order was published in the federal register, and at 1:32 PM ET a White House adviser saying refineries are turning back on.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia and Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried between 11:44 AM ET and 11:48 AM ET statements from Iran’s military that its navy is ready to respond to unauthorized vessels in waters under its control, and Houthi claims of missile attacks on Riyadh’s airport and on Najran. At 12:17 PM ET and 12:21 PM ET, per the news feed, the President said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms and described productive conversations with Iran. At 12:58 PM ET, per the news feed, the Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels carrying Iranian oil.
After the settle, per the news feed, Iran’s president said at 4:15 PM ET and 4:16 PM ET that Iran will not leave the negotiating table and that proposals exchanged through intermediaries will be finalised. An Iranian state media report carried by the news feed at 4:17 PM ET attributed explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz to tankers striking mines. Press reports between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran’s drone and missile arsenal and that three aircraft carriers would soon be in the region.
On Russia and Ukraine, the feed carried at 3:12 PM ET that United States envoys will meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Friday, per a source, and at 3:32 PM ET that the Kremlin agrees the conflict is in a stalemate. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed here.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilisation, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The November gasoline contract settled at 3.3160 dollars a gallon, up 0.0818 or 2.53 percent, and the November heating oil contract settled at 4.8829, up 0.2602, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider’s settlement rows. On the settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, stands at 47.78 dollars a barrel against 47.56 on Wednesday, and the heating oil margin at 113.59 against 105.87.
The news feed carried at 1:24 PM ET that 1.3 million barrels a day, or 63 percent, of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut in, and at 4:16 PM ET a news feed report that Hurricane Isaias has shut in 1.28 million barrels a day. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (Dollar Index, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk Appetite)
The dollar index closed at 102.14, down 0.10 percent, after a session range of 102.03 to 102.47, per the provider’s quote. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points, and the thirty-year yield index at 5.61 percent. A thirty-year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 5.618 percent with a bid-to-cover of 2.540, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the news feed described a tail of 0.1 basis point. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand against a forecast of 200 thousand, per the news-feed calendar.
Brent’s December contract settled at 104.28, up 4.08 or 4.07 percent, so its premium over November WTI widened to 12.79 from 11.92. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,765.36, down 0.47 percent, and gold’s December contract settled at 4,157.0, up 16.3 points or 0.39 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (Commitments Data, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The latest positioning report on the provider’s overview is still the one as of September 29, 2026: managed money long 209,028 contracts against short 129,436, a net long of 79,592, with commercials 873,637 long against 1,016,255 short, a net short of 142,618. The overview read for this session shows that September 29 report as its latest, so no change in positioning is asserted for Thursday.
Open interest on the November contract is shown at 206,677, which is Wednesday’s figure on the dated 10/07 row, down from 236,274 on Tuesday’s 10/06 row; Thursday’s open interest had not been reported at the time of capture, and the dated 10/08 row carries no open interest value. Thursday’s volume was 303,313 contracts against Wednesday’s 295,162, on the dated 10/08 and 10/07 rows. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December grows over the coming sessions.
5. No liquid options proxy
Crude is covered here without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider’s daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, and listed crude options do exist. No such dataset was read, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex and Asia)
The contract reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday with the 4:17 PM ET mine report, carried by the news feed from Iranian state media, and the 4:42 PM ET to 4:45 PM ET press reports on Pentagon strike plans both already released. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher above the 91.15 Pivot Point, expected Globex band roughly 89.90 to 92.60 absent a headline shock, with Gulf and Iran headlines the gap risk in both directions.
London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Friday)
A European Central Bank governing council member is listed at 3:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Thursday’s 4.43 point range shows that swings of four points remain possible inside a single session. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 89.70 to 92.80, with the 90.15 to 90.45 band the first meaningful support beneath the Pivot Point.
Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Friday, United States Open and Pit Session)
Canadian employment is listed at 8:30 AM ET with a forecast of 5 thousand jobs against a prior loss of 41.7 thousand, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, just before this window. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, and the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey with its inflation expectations at 10:00 AM ET, with a sentiment forecast of 47.6 and a one-year inflation expectation forecast of 4.7 percent, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 89.60 to 93.00, with the 92.04 to 92.82 band the first meaningful resistance above the target price.
Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Friday, NYMEX Pit Close)
Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET, the last settlement before a weekend in which the Iran strike-plan press reports and the Gulf storm outages remain open questions. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after this window. Expected band roughly 89.60 to 93.20.
Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)
There is no Friday evening session; Globex trading resumes at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, so two days of weekend headline exposure separate Friday’s settle from the next open. Monday, October 12, is the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times, on the calendar. A weekend gap above Thursday’s 93.20 high or beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11 would reset the level map.
Expected Range (Friday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 89.90 to 92.60. Mid-range scenario (most likely): 89.10 to 93.50. High-range scenario: 87.40 to 95.60.
Most Likely Path
In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 89.11 and Pivot R1 at 93.54, with Iran headlines deciding the side. A dip toward the 90.15 to 90.45 band that holds above Pivot S1 at 89.11 is weighted above a break lower, because Thursday settled above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite read rose to 32 percent buy with direction strengthening. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a confirmed de-escalation, such as progress through the intermediaries, that carries the contract through 89.11 toward the 86.86 one-month low.
7. Friday Economic Calendar
The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET Thursday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank governing council member speaks at 3:30 AM ET Friday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Canadian employment and the unemployment rate are listed at 8:30 AM ET, with forecasts of 5 thousand jobs and 6.5 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, and the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET, with forecasts of 47.6 for sentiment, 4.7 percent for one-year inflation expectations and 3.5 percent for five-year expectations, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no crude-specific scheduled release for Friday and no mega-capitalisation earnings entry.
The calendar lists Monday, October 12, as the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours. The producer group’s monthly report is listed for Tuesday, October 13, on a calendar entry that itself marks that date unconfirmed. The calendar lists the consumer price index for September at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and the next weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026. In our judgment the first-order influence on crude on Friday is unscheduled: whether the Pentagon strike-plan press reports and the mine reports escalate before the weekend, set against the President’s statement, per the news feed, that no attack will come before the midterms.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Thursday’s settle sits above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite read rose to 32 percent buy with direction strengthening; a dip into one standard deviation support at 90.16 and the 9-day average crossing at 90.30 offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11. Provider commentary tied Thursday’s retreat from the 93.20 high to the statement, carried by the news feed, that no attack will come before the midterms; that link is the commentary’s. A de-escalation headline of that kind is the main risk to a long, so the setup is an analyst judgment against live headline risk.
Entry Zone: 90.15 to 90.45
Stop Loss: 88.95 (beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11 and three standard deviations support at 89.19)
Target 1 (T1): 91.65 (50 cents above the 91.15 Pivot Point, beneath the 91.87 target price)
Target 2 (T2): 93.00 (20 cents beneath Thursday’s 93.20 high)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 94.35 (7 cents above the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 89.11 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath two standard deviations support at 89.61, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 89.61.
Macro override: Confirmed progress in the talks through intermediaries, or a fast restart of Gulf of Mexico output, would remove the supply premium. In that scenario a drop through the 88.95 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and the 86.72 to 86.86 band of Pivot S2 and the one-month low becomes the reference within one 14-day average true range of 4.11 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November NYMEX WTI crude contract, CLX26, the November ’26 month, tracked on the continuous CL1! chart and prepared after Thursday’s close on October 8, 2026 for the Friday, October 9, 2026 session. The contract domain was checked before any level was used: the daily chart’s completed Thursday bar equals the provider’s settlement row, and the chart’s current Friday bar opened at 91.29, equal to the provider’s day open, while the provider’s published previous close of 91.49 equals the settlement, so chart and levels sit on the same November contract. The Globex session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday, so the day high, day low and open on the provider’s overview page belong to the Friday session and are not used as Thursday’s range.
Thursday’s session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs, checked against all seven published rungs and reproduced by the chart’s daily bar and the settlement row. Only the extremes and selected Thursday-session 30-minute bars were preserved: the 6:00 PM ET first bar, the 7:30 PM ET bar holding the low, the 11:00 AM ET bar holding the high and the post-settlement 4:30 PM ET bar. They place the high and the low in time; nothing is claimed about the path between them, and no price move is tied to a headline. The 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages were computed from the provider’s 259-session daily settlement series, which leaves out the partial Friday row. Volume and open interest are quoted from the dated rows of that daily record for 10/06, 10/07 and 10/08; the 10/08 row carries volume 303,313 but no open interest value, so no Thursday open interest is stated. The provider revised the 10/07 row after Thursday’s outlook was written: it now reads volume 295,162 and open interest 206,677, where that outlook cited 260,374 contracts and no open interest value. This outlook uses the revised row.
Oscillator readings are cited as published. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, so no gamma, dealer-positioning or options-flow claim is made. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar captured for this session; catalysts whose time had passed when collection began are recorded as completed. Headline items are statements carried by the news feed or by press reports, attributed as such. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Thursday’s grade uses Thursday’s open, high, low and settle as stated in tonight’s review and the dated 10/08 row of the daily record, which agree, the selected 30-minute bars above, and the setup card as published on Thursday’s outlook.
Not captured, and stated nowhere as a figure: a complete intraday series for Thursday, a four-hour series, a prior-quarter high or low, an inventory release for Thursday, a refinery utilisation figure, a seasonal demand series, Thursday’s open interest and a positioning report newer than September 29.
Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here, and Thursday’s gold outlook is here. Outlooks for the equity index, technology index, gold and crude contracts are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
