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Nasdaq-100 Futures Fall to 30,969.50 as Chip Shares Slide

Market OutlookPublished For the session61 min readby AlgoIndex Research Team
Nasdaq-100 Futures Fall to 30,969.50 as Chip Shares Slide

December Nasdaq-100 futures fell 432.75 points to 30,969.50 as chip shares slid. Levels, the 31,180 to 31,240 short and Friday's survey.

At 12:42 PM ET on Thursday the news feed carried a press report that a leading artificial-intelligence developer's annualised revenue is about 20 billion dollars less than previously signalled. Provider commentary said chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares were hammered on demand concerns after the report. The semiconductor index closed down 3.39 percent. The Nasdaq-100 cash index lost 1.39 percent, against a 0.47 percent decline in the S&P 500 and a 0.10 percent gain in the Dow.

Settlement came at 30,969.50, down 432.75 points or 1.38 percent from Wednesday's 31,402.25. The 674.00 point range was the widest since the 958.75 point range of 09/21 and ran 1.39 times the published 14-day average daily range of 486.63 points. The settle finished at 26.3 percent of it. Both ends stepped down again. It was the lowest settle since the 30,760.50 settle of 10/01. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. Next up is the University of Michigan preliminary survey at 10:00 AM ET Friday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.

At a glance

December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 30,969.50, down 432.75 points or 1.38 percent. That is 26.3 percent of a 674.00 point range and 106.33 points beneath the Pivot Point at 31,075.83. The 31,466.00 high printed inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening and the 30,792.00 low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. Thursday's 2026-10-08 row on the provider's daily record shows volume of 685,470 contracts, against 509,635 on Wednesday's revised 2026-10-07 row; open interest, a column that lags one session, reads 281,627 on Thursday's row. The composite multi-indicator read eased to 80 percent buy, strength minimum and direction weakening. The settle sits beneath the 5-day and 9-day averages and above the 20-day through 200-day. Dealer positioning puts the cash close 264.19 points beneath the modeled volatility threshold at 30,990, or 31,233.69 in futures at the 243.69 point basis, and 109.81 points above the modeled gamma flip at 30,616, or 30,859.69. Overhead: the 9-day average at 30,985.92, the Pivot Point, one standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67. Beneath: the 30,922.97 target price, the 30,859.69 flip equivalent, the 30,792.00 low and Pivot S1 at 30,685.67. The primary setup is a short from 31,180 to 31,240, stop 31,380, targets 31,040, 30,870 and 30,700. Chips lead. The first-order event, in the review's judgment, is the 10:00 AM ET inflation-expectations survey, unconfirmed.

Thursday traded through the 31,180 to 31,220 band and its 31,050 stop

Our Thursday outlook set a long from 31,180 to 31,220 with a stop at 31,050 and targets at 31,350, 31,500 and 31,650. Thursday's completed bar, on the provider's daily record, opened at 31,403.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 31,466.00 and a low of 30,792.00, and settled at 30,969.50. Tonight's review states the same four prints. The band traded. So did the stop. The low ran 388.00 points beneath the band's lower edge and 258.00 beneath 31,050. Settlement came 210.50 points under the band and 80.50 under the stop.

Order matters for the targets. The open sat 183.00 points above the band's upper edge. The first 30-minute bar, the 6:00 PM ET bar, traded from 31,403.00 to 31,439.50, wholly above the band and 53.00 points above 31,350. The chart's 30-minute bars place the 31,466.00 high inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening and the 30,792.00 low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. The high cleared 31,350 by 116.00 points and stopped 34.00 short of 31,500. The record cannot show whether the band traded before that high. So no target is scored from the band. The record holds prints only. It shows no fills.

The exit lines can be scored. The card named a settle beneath Pivot S2 at 30,977.42 as its invalidation. Thursday settled 7.92 points beneath it. By the card's own terms, the thesis was negated at the settle. The low had traded 185.42 points beneath that line. Its second test was acceptance beneath 31,107.66, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes. The low ran 315.66 points under 31,107.66. Yet the preserved bars hold one close beneath the line, the 4:30 PM ET bar's 31,021.25 after the settlement. That test cannot be scored from this record.

The weighted path missed. We had the contract holding above Pivot S1 at 31,189.83, with a pullback into the 31,189.83 to 31,205.10 band of Pivot S1 and the 5-day average weighted as a buying area. The low traded 397.83 points beneath that Pivot S1. The settle finished 220.33 beneath it. Our alternative was a further rise in yields after the thirty-year auction that takes the contract beneath 31,107.66 and toward Pivot S2 at 30,977.42. Its price leg came true. Its yield leg did not. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points.

Two session bands can be checked against a timed print. The Globex band of 31,250 to 31,520 held both timed Globex prints. The 6:00 PM ET bar's 31,403.00 low sat 153.00 points above its bottom, and the 31,466.00 high in the 10:30 PM ET bar sat 54.00 beneath its top. The afternoon band of 31,100 to 31,600 did not hold. The 1:00 PM ET bar reached 30,792.00, 308.00 points beneath its bottom. The London and morning bands need a fuller intraday record, so they go unscored. Across the full session the low broke the 31,250 bottom of the low-range case by 458.00 points, the 31,100 bottom of the mid-range case by 308.00 and the 30,950 bottom of the high-range case by 158.00. The high stayed inside all three. Only the high-range case held the settle, 19.50 points above its bottom.

The macro override named a sharp rise in yields after the thirty-year auction or an escalation in the Gulf. Yields fell. The thirty-year yield index closed at 5.61 percent. The President said at 12:17 PM ET, per the news feed, that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms. Later items came after the cash close. At 4:17 PM ET the news feed carried an Iranian state media report of explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz. Press reports between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran. No gap beneath 31,050 occurred, since the session opened 353.00 points above it. No record here ties any of these to a price move. We grade the card as written.

A 31,466.00 high, a 30,792.00 low and a 674.00 point range

Thursday opened at 31,403.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.75 points above Wednesday's settle. Its first 30-minute bar traded from 31,403.00 to 31,439.50 and closed at 31,436.25. The 31,466.00 high came inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening. The 30,792.00 low came inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. Settlement came at 30,969.50, 496.50 points beneath the high and 177.50 above the low. Only selected 30-minute bars were preserved. Nothing here describes the path between them.

Late quotes sat near 31,000. After the settlement, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar traded from 30,995.25 to 31,026.00 and closed at 31,021.25. That quote is not used as the settlement. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. The provider's day open, high and low of 31,020.50, 31,036.25 and 30,995.00, shown at the time of writing, belong to that new session, not to Thursday.

Those extremes also come from the ladder. Thursday's high and low are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and checked against every rung. The third resistance point at 32,033.67 minus the third support point at 30,011.67, divided by three, returns 674.00. The second pair, 31,749.83 and 30,401.83, divided by two, returns the same 674.00. Three times the 31,075.83 Pivot Point less the settle gives 62,257.99. That is one hundredth from the 62,258.00 sum of the solved pair, because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair reproduces all seven published rungs. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Thursday daily bar carry the same high and low.

Against Wednesday the bar stepped down at both ends. The high sits 55.00 points beneath Wednesday's 31,521.00 and the low 351.00 beneath Wednesday's 31,143.00. That makes two lower settles in a row. Activity jumped. Thursday's 2026-10-08 row on the provider's daily record shows volume of 685,470 contracts, against 509,635 on Wednesday's 2026-10-07 row, which was revised after our Thursday outlook carried 500,010. Open interest reads 281,627 on Thursday's row, the figure Wednesday's row carried when that outlook was written. Wednesday's row now reads 280,402. The column lags one session, so no open-interest change is asserted.

The prior week still frames the move. That week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 30,356.75 to 31,282.50. Thursday's high sat 183.50 points above its top, while the low stayed inside its range. This week, October 5 through Thursday, has spanned 31,616.50 to 30,792.00. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 31,616.50, set on 10/06, sits 647.00 points above the settle. The one-month low of 29,053.00 sits 1,916.50 points beneath it. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the quarterly reference, 31,616.50 above and 27,482.00 beneath.

Session highs over the last six sessions read 31,151.50, 31,282.50, 31,371.00, 31,616.50, 31,521.00 and 31,466.00. Lows read 30,529.25, 30,760.25, 30,957.50, 31,309.25, 31,143.00 and 30,792.00. Settlements ran 30,760.50, 31,061.75, 31,317.75, 31,483.25, 31,402.25 and 30,969.50. Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 353.50, 393.75, 622.25, 522.25, 413.50, 307.25, 378.00 and 674.00. Settle changes over the same eight read plus 47.00, plus 85.50, plus 61.75, plus 301.25, plus 256.00, plus 165.50, minus 81.00 and minus 432.75. Thursday's range was the widest of the group.

The retracement grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,334.75 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 30,032.26, all beneath the settle. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high sits at 30,037.12. No four-hour series was captured. Swing structure here rests on daily bars only.

The settle now sits inside the average stack. Computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions through Thursday, the 5-day stands at 31,246.90, the 9-day at 30,985.92, the 20-day at 30,520.24, the 50-day at 30,057.26, the 100-day at 30,025.07 and the 200-day at 28,179.05. The settle sits 277.40 points beneath the 5-day and 16.42 beneath the 9-day. It is 449.26 above the 20-day, 912.24 above the 50-day, 944.43 above the 100-day and 2,790.45 above the 200-day.

Window arithmetic still lifted every short average. The 5-day rose 41.80 points from Wednesday's 31,205.10, because the 10/01 settle of 30,760.50 left the window and was replaced by 30,969.50. The 9-day rose 8.92 points from 30,977.00 as the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 left its window. The 20-day rose 77.19 points from 30,443.05 as the 09/10 settle of 29,425.75 left, and the 50-day rose 67.12 points from 29,990.15 as the 07/29 settle of 27,613.75 left. The 50-day sits 32.19 points above the 100-day. The older 50 settles in the 100-day window averaged 29,992.88. The 20-day sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settles in the 50-day window averaged 29,748.61. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Friday: 31,038.38 for the 9-day, 30,707.31 for the 18-day and 30,150.84 for the 40-day.

Momentum cooled. The oscillator figures are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the page may carry the live Globex price in place of the settle. Relative strength reads 56.24 on the 9-day, 57.93 on the 14-day and 57.32 on the 20-day. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 48.64 percent and the 14-day 62.22 percent. The 14-day %K sits at 81.90 percent, beneath %D at 89.90 percent. The smoothed lines have turned down from high readings.

Positive direction still leads. On the 9-day the directional index reads 27.84, with positive direction at 24.11 and negative at 20.19; on the 14-day it reads 19.40, with positive direction at 24.49 against negative at 19.42. Historic volatility reads 11.99 percent on the 9-day and 15.78 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 80 percent buy, down from 88 percent in the prior session's snapshot, with strength described as minimum and direction as weakening. A week ago it read 80 percent buy. A month ago, 56 percent. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 50 percent and the long-horizon group 100 percent. The composite trend indicator reads buy.

Volatility frames Friday. The published 14-day average true range stands at 465.69 points, 1.50 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 486.63. The 9-day figures are 466.37 and 469.83, and the 20-day figures 474.92 and 472.40. One 14-day average true range either side of the settle spans 30,503.81 to 31,435.19. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower, built from five settlements. One deviation spans 30,748.00 to 31,191.00, two span 30,656.25 to 31,282.75 and three span 30,585.85 to 31,353.15. Those bands describe settlement dispersion only.

A 3.39 percent chip slide, lower yields and the positioning map

Chips set the tone. The semiconductor index closed at 12,623.71, down 442.44 points or 3.39 percent, after a session range of 12,483.95 to 12,997.48. The desk note, the 5:11 PM ET edition, said data-center related shares saw sharp declines. It cited drops of about 5 percent in several chip and infrastructure names, about 4 percent in two others and about 3 percent in the largest chipmaker. It said energy and consumer staples showed relative strength as capital rotated toward defensive sectors. At 2:17 PM ET the news feed carried a press report that a chip-design software company is looking to help Chinese artificial-intelligence labs speed chip design.

The broad market fell less. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 30,725.81, down 1.39 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,765.36, down 0.47 percent, and the Dow rose 0.10 percent. Among the largest companies, the news feed reported at 12:02 PM ET that the largest handset maker announced an October 13 product launch event. At 4:00 PM ET it carried a press report of a further launch around October 27. These are statements carried by the news feed and not earnings data. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Thursday evening or Friday.

Yields eased. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points, and the thirty-year yield index at 5.61 percent. A thirty-year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 5.618 percent with a bid-to-cover of 2.540, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand against a forecast of 200 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. Lower yields did not lift the Nasdaq-100 on Thursday, which in this review's interpretation points to the earnings-outlook concern as the session's driver, ahead of duration.

The Fed voices leaned hawkish. A regional Federal Reserve president said between 1:45 PM ET and 2:04 PM ET, per the news feed, that more firming will be required and that rates ought to be going up in the next six to nine months. The calendar lists a Federal Reserve governor who spoke at 4:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2026.

Volatility rose across the board. The Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility gauge closed at 21.98, up 0.98, and the S&P 500 volatility index at 15.41, up 0.33. The desk note put the volatility-of-volatility index at 88, up five points. The dollar index slipped 0.10 percent to 102.14. November crude settled at 91.49, up 3.64 percent, and December gold at 4,157.0, up 16.3. The desk note said the S&P 500 hedging-flow measure finished at about minus 2 billion dollars of delta, driven mainly by same-day put buying. It put the broader equities measure at about minus 3 billion, dominated by longer-dated call selling, and read the day as a risk-off session.

The basis edged wider. The measured closing basis, the December settlement of 30,969.50 less the 30,725.81 cash close, is 243.69 points, against 242.17 on Wednesday.

The desk note comes next. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes, not Thursday's. The NDX reference of 31,160 equals Wednesday's 31,160.08 cash close, and the QQQ reference of 757 equals Wednesday's 757.71 fund close. Taking 1.39 percent off 31,160.08 gives 30,726.9, consistent with the 30,725.81 close. Every level is therefore read against Thursday's 30,725.81 cash close.

On the cash index the primary call-side ceiling sits at 31,500 and the largest gamma concentration at 31,000. The modeled volatility threshold sits at 30,990, the modeled gamma-flip level at 30,616 and the primary put-side support base at 28,000. The 30,725.81 close sits 774.19 points beneath the ceiling, 264.19 beneath the threshold and 109.81 above the flip level. The note lists 31,000, 31,500, 30,000 and 32,000 as key strikes. Gamma tilt reads 1.591 for the index and 1.054 for the fund. Gamma notional reads plus 14.193 million dollars for the index and plus 245.869 million for the fund.

The fund proxy sits beneath both lines. Its primary call-side ceiling and largest gamma concentration sit at 760, the modeled volatility threshold at 757, the modeled gamma-flip level at 750 and the primary put-side support base at 700. The fund's positioning console, marked as updated 2026-10-08, showed a 748.74 quote against a 757.71 previous close. That quote sits beneath both the 757 threshold and the 750 flip level. The console shows call gamma of minus 859 million against put gamma of minus 2.2 billion. It attributes 15.70 percent of gamma to the nearest expiration, up from 12.59 percent. Its high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded.

Conversions carry four cash levels into futures. At the measured closing basis of 243.69 points, cash 31,500 corresponds to 31,743.69 on the December contract, the 31,000 concentration to 31,243.69, the 30,990 threshold to 31,233.69 and the 30,616 flip level to 30,859.69. These are conversions made by this review. The source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair. The threshold and the flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.

In this review's interpretation a cash close beneath the modeled volatility threshold on the index, and beneath both the threshold and the flip level on the fund, leaves the contract in the less dampened zone. Thursday's high traded 232.31 points above the 31,233.69 threshold equivalent. The low traded 67.69 beneath the 30,859.69 flip equivalent. The settle sits between the two, 264.19 points beneath the first and 109.81 above the second.

The trade map for Friday

The primary setup is a short from 31,180 to 31,240, around one standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 and 31,233.69, the December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold. The case rests on position. The settle sits beneath the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages after a 674.00 point range that closed near the lower quarter, at 26.3 percent. The cash close sits beneath the modeled volatility threshold, and the composite's strength is described as minimum with direction weakening. The stop at 31,380 sits above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 and three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15. Two readings cut the other way. The composite still reads 80 percent buy, and positive direction leads on both directional systems. So the setup is an analyst judgment that Thursday's chip-led selling extends from a rally. It is not a measured edge. The settle sits beneath the entry band, so the setup needs a rally to engage. The 14-day average true range of 465.69 points compares with a 170 point stop distance from the 31,210 midpoint.

Primary setup for Friday
Direction
Short
Entry Zone
31,180 to 31,240
Stop Loss
31,380 (above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 and three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15)
Target 1
31,040 (1.62 points above the 9-day average crossing price at 31,038.38)
Target 2
30,870 (10.31 points above 30,859.69, the December equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level)
Target 3 (extended)
30,700 (14.33 points above Pivot S1 at 30,685.67)
Risk-to-Reward
Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3, measured from the 31,210 midpoint of the entry zone against the 31,380 stop, which is 170 points of risk
Invalidation
A settle above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above two standard deviations resistance at 31,282.75, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 31,282.75; a touch alone does not remove it
Macro override
A sharp recovery in chip shares, or a fall in yields after the inflation-expectations survey that revives large-capitalisation buying, would invalidate the short in real time; a gap above the 31,380 stop removes the setup, and Wednesday's 31,521.00 high and the 31,616.50 52-week high become the references within one 14-day average true range of 465.69 points
Alternate setup
None stated in the session review

Overhead the references start 16.42 points above the settle, at the 30,985.92 9-day settlement average. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,021.25 after the settlement, and the new Friday session had printed 31,036.25 by the time of writing. The 9-day average crossing price at 31,038.38 and the Pivot Point at 31,075.83 form the first resistance. The 3-10 day average crossover stall at 31,122.18 comes next. Then the zone. One standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 and the 31,233.69 conversion of the cash 30,990 threshold sit inside it. The 31,243.69 conversion of the cash 31,000 concentration and the 5-day settlement average at 31,246.90 sit 3.69 and 6.90 points above its top. Two standard deviations resistance at 31,282.75, three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 follow, all beneath the stop. Wednesday's 31,402.25 settle, Thursday's 31,466.00 high, Wednesday's 31,521.00 high and the 31,616.50 52-week high sit above it. Pivot R2 at 31,749.83, the 31,743.69 conversion of the cash 31,500 ceiling and Pivot R3 at 32,033.67 are the extended references.

Support starts 46.53 points beneath the settle, at the 30,922.97 published target price. The 30,859.69 conversion of the cash 30,616 flip level comes next, with Target 2 at 30,870 sitting 10.31 points above it. Thursday's 30,792.00 low, the 30,760.50 settle of 10/01 and one standard deviation support at 30,748.00 follow. The 18-day average crossing price at 30,707.31, Pivot S1 at 30,685.67, two standard deviations support at 30,656.25, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24 and three standard deviations support at 30,585.85 form the next grouping, 121.46 points deep. Then the deeper levels. The 20-day settlement average at 30,520.24, Pivot S2 at 30,401.83, the 30,356.75 prior-week low and the 50 percent retracement at 30,334.75 sit beneath it. The 40-day crossing price at 30,150.84, the 50-day average at 30,057.26 and Pivot S3 at 30,011.67 are the deeper references.

The night comes first. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday with the news feed's 4:17 PM ET state media report on Hormuz and the 4:42 PM ET to 4:45 PM ET press reports on Pentagon strike plans already released. It had traded between 30,995.00 and 31,036.25 by the time of writing. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias reads neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 31,075.83, with an expected Globex band of roughly 30,800 to 31,150.

Europe follows. A European Central Bank governing council member is listed at 3:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Thursday's 674.00 point range shows that moves well beyond the average daily range remain possible. Bias reads neutral to lower, with an expected band of roughly 30,750 to 31,200.

Then the data. Canadian employment and the unemployment rate are listed at 8:30 AM ET, with forecasts of 5 thousand jobs and 6.5 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, as the cash session opens, also per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the survey. The University of Michigan preliminary survey is listed at 10:00 AM ET, with forecasts of 47.6 for sentiment, 4.7 percent for one-year inflation expectations and 3.5 percent for five-year expectations, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The morning band runs roughly 30,650 to 31,280. Above the Pivot Point, the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band is the first meaningful resistance.

The afternoon closes the week. The cash close at 4:00 PM ET is the last before the weekend, and a regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The afternoon band runs roughly 30,650 to 31,250. No Friday evening session follows. Globex resumes at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, so two days of weekend headline exposure separate Friday's close from the next open. The calendar lists Monday, October 12, as the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times. A weekend gap above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 or beneath Pivot S1 at 30,685.67 would reset the level map.

That is the hinge. In this review's judgment the first-order scheduled event for the Nasdaq-100 on Friday is the 10:00 AM ET inflation-expectations survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, with chip-sector follow-through the main unscheduled influence. Further out, the calendar lists the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. It lists the consumer price index for September at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and the largest contract chipmaker's results conference at 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026.

Three scenarios frame the day. Across the full session the low-range case runs 30,750 to 31,200, the mid-range and most likely case 30,650 to 31,300 and the high-range case 30,500 to 31,435. All three nest. In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 30,685.67 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67, with a rally toward the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band that fails beneath Pivot R1 weighted above a sustained recovery. Three grounds carry that weight. A settle beneath the 5-day and 9-day averages. A cash close beneath the modeled volatility threshold. A composite whose strength reads minimum, with direction weakening. One risk stands out. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a recovery in chip shares that lifts the contract through Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 toward Wednesday's 31,521.00 high.

Two sessions after the 52-week high, Friday asks whether the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band caps any rebound.

The complete data picture

Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level map, then the complete numeric reference underneath.

Level map
December E-mini (NQZ26), every reference from 32,033.67 down to 30,011.67, to scale
32,033.67 Pivot R331,743.69 Cash 31,500 ceiling in futures31,521.00 Wednesday high31,402.25 Wednesday settle31,353.15 3 standard deviation resistance31,246.90 5-day settlement average31,233.69 Cash 30,990 threshold in futures31,122.18 3-10 day crossover stall31,038.38 9-day average crossing price31,021.25 4:30 PM ET bar close30,922.97 Published target price30,792.00 Thursday low, 1:00 PM ET bar30,748.00 1 standard deviation support30,685.67 Pivot S130,637.24 38.2 percent from the 4-week high30,520.24 20-day settlement average30,356.75 Prior-week low30,150.84 40-day average crossing price30,037.12 38.2 percent from the 13-week high30,025.07 100-day settlement average31,749.83 Pivot R231,616.50 52-week high, 10/0631,466.00 Thursday high, 10:30 PM ET bar31,359.67 Pivot R131,282.75 2 standard deviation resistance31,243.69 Cash 31,000 largest gamma in futures31,191.00 1 standard deviation resistance31,075.83 Pivot Point31,036.25 Friday-session high at writing30,985.92 9-day settlement average30,859.69 Cash 30,616 gamma flip in futures30,760.50 10/01 settle30,707.31 18-day average crossing price30,656.25 2 standard deviation support30,585.85 3 standard deviation support30,401.83 Pivot S230,334.75 50 percent retracement30,057.26 50-day settlement average30,032.26 38.2 percent from the 4-week low30,011.67 Pivot S3STOP 31,380SHORT 31,180 TO 31,240THU SETTLE30,969.50
Thursday settle
30,969.50
Direction
Short
Entry band
31,180 to 31,240
Stop
31,380
Resistance above, nearest last
31,075.83
Pivot Point
+106.33
31,038.38
9-day average crossing price
+68.88
31,036.25
Friday-session high at writing
+66.75
31,021.25
4:30 PM ET bar close
+51.75
30,985.92
9-day settlement average
+16.42
Thu settle
30,969.50
Support below, nearest first
30,922.97
Published target price
-46.53
30,859.69
Cash 30,616 gamma flip in futures
-109.81
30,792.00
Thursday low, 1:00 PM ET bar
-177.50
30,760.50
10/01 settle
-209.00
30,748.00
1 standard deviation support
-221.50
Five nearest levels on each side. Distances are in points from the settle. The short entry band runs from 31,180 to 31,240 and the stop sits at 31,380. The 31,616.50 high of 10/06 is the 52-week high.
Every level on the chart (40)
Sorted by price, top down. Gap is the distance from the settle in points.
PriceLevelGap
32,033.67Resistance
Pivot R3
Pivot R3, the top of the computed ladder
+1,064.17
31,749.83Resistance
Pivot R2
Pivot R2, an extended reference
+780.33
31,743.69Resistance
Cash 31,500 ceiling in futures
Cash-index 31,500 primary call-side ceiling at the measured 243.69 point basis
+774.19
31,616.50Resistance
52-week high, 10/06
The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, set on 10/06, 647.00 points above the settle
+647.00
31,521.00Resistance
Wednesday high
Wednesday's high, 55.00 points above Thursday's
+551.50
31,466.00Resistance
Thursday high, 10:30 PM ET bar
Thursday's high, printed inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening
+496.50
31,402.25Resistance
Wednesday settle
Wednesday's settle, 432.75 points above Thursday's
+432.75
31,359.67Resistance
Pivot R1
Pivot R1; the 31,380 stop sits 20.33 points above it, and a settle above it negates the short
+390.17
31,353.15Resistance
3 standard deviation resistance
Three standard deviations resistance, 26.85 points beneath the stop
+383.65
31,282.75Resistance
2 standard deviation resistance
Two standard deviations resistance; acceptance above it removes the edge
+313.25
31,246.90Resistance
5-day settlement average
5-day settlement average, 277.40 points above the settle
+277.40
31,243.69Resistance
Cash 31,000 largest gamma in futures
Cash-index 31,000 largest gamma concentration at the measured basis
+274.19
31,233.69Resistance
Cash 30,990 threshold in futures
Cash-index 30,990 modeled volatility threshold at the measured basis, inside the 31,180 to 31,240 entry band
+264.19
31,191.00Resistance
1 standard deviation resistance
One standard deviation resistance, inside the entry band
+221.50
31,122.18Resistance
3-10 day crossover stall
3-10 day average crossover stall price
+152.68
31,075.83Resistance
Pivot Point
Pivot Point, 106.33 points above the settle
+106.33
31,038.38Resistance
9-day average crossing price
Price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Friday; Target 1 at 31,040 sits 1.62 points above it
+68.88
31,036.25Resistance
Friday-session high at writing
High of the new Friday session at the time of writing, after the 6:00 PM ET Thursday reopen; it belongs to Friday, not Thursday
+66.75
31,021.25Resistance
4:30 PM ET bar close
Close of the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settlement; not used as the settlement
+51.75
30,985.92Resistance
9-day settlement average
9-day settlement average, the first resistance, 16.42 points above the settle
+16.42
30,922.97Support
Published target price
Target price published for Friday, the first support, 46.53 points beneath the settle
-46.53
30,859.69Support
Cash 30,616 gamma flip in futures
Cash-index 30,616 modeled gamma-flip level at the measured basis; Target 2 at 30,870 sits 10.31 points above it
-109.81
30,792.00Support
Thursday low, 1:00 PM ET bar
Thursday's low, printed inside the 1:00 PM ET bar, 351.00 points beneath Wednesday's
-177.50
30,760.50Support
10/01 settle
The 10/01 settle; Thursday's settle is the lowest since
-209.00
30,748.00Support
1 standard deviation support
One standard deviation support
-221.50
30,707.31Support
18-day average crossing price
Price at which the 18-day average would be crossed on Friday
-262.19
30,685.67Support
Pivot S1
Pivot S1; Target 3 at 30,700 sits 14.33 points above it
-283.83
30,656.25Support
2 standard deviation support
Two standard deviations support
-313.25
30,637.24Support
38.2 percent from the 4-week high
38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high
-332.26
30,585.85Support
3 standard deviation support
Three standard deviations support
-383.65
30,520.24Support
20-day settlement average
20-day settlement average, 449.26 points beneath the settle
-449.26
30,401.83Support
Pivot S2
Pivot S2
-567.67
30,356.75Support
Prior-week low
Low of the September 28 to October 2 week
-612.75
30,334.75Support
50 percent retracement
50 percent retracement of the four-week range
-634.75
30,150.84Support
40-day average crossing price
Price at which the 40-day average would be crossed on Friday
-818.66
30,057.26Support
50-day settlement average
50-day settlement average, 912.24 points beneath the settle
-912.24
30,037.12Support
38.2 percent from the 13-week high
38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high
-932.38
30,032.26Support
38.2 percent from the 4-week low
38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low
-937.24
30,025.07Support
100-day settlement average
100-day settlement average, 944.43 points beneath the settle
-944.43
30,011.67Support
Pivot S3
Pivot S3, the bottom of the computed ladder
-957.83
Red references sit above the settle and green references beneath it, the hatched band is the 31,180 to 31,240 short entry zone and the red line the 31,380 stop; every level in the review’s key-level section fits this scale, with the full pivot ladder, the retracements, the crossing prices, the recorded session prints and the four positioning conversions added. The 31,616.50 high of 10/06 is the 52-week high.
Session path
Wednesday’s and Thursday’s completed bars, the recorded 30-minute bars and the Friday reopen
WEDNESDAY, COMPLETED31,521.00 high31,402.25 settle31,510.00 open31,143.00 low378.00 point rangeTHURSDAY, COMPLETED31,466.00 high30,969.50 settle31,403.00 open30,792.00 low674.00 point range, settle 26.3 percent up it55.00 beneath Wednesday's high351.00 beneath Wednesday's lowRECORDED 30-MINUTE BARS6:00 PM ET10:30 PM ET1:00 PM ET4:30 PM ETWednesday eveningThursday31,439.5031,403.0031,026.0030,995.25close 31,021.2531,466.00day highday low30,792.00the 10:30 PM ET and 1:00 PM ET bars are shownby their recorded extreme onlyGLOBEX, FRIDAYreopened6:00 PM ETThursday31,020.50 open31,036.25 high30,995.00 lowat writing,not ThursdayOne price scale; the dotted line is the Thursday settle. Only selected 30-minute bars were preserved, so the path between them is not shown.
Wednesday, completed31,143.00 to 31,521.00
Open 31,510.00, settle 31,402.25, a 378.00 point range
Thursday, completed30,792.00 to 31,466.00
Open 31,403.00, settle 30,969.50, a 674.00 point range, settle 26.3 percent up it
6:00 PM ET bar31,403.00 to 31,439.50
Wednesday evening, the first bar of the session
4:30 PM ET bar30,995.25 to 31,026.00
After the settlement, close 31,021.25
The dark tick on every bar marks the Thursday settle at 30,969.50. All bars share one price scale.
Wednesday, completed
31,521.00
high
31,402.25
settle
31,510.00
open
31,143.00
low
Thursday, completed
31,466.00
high, 55.00 beneath Wednesday’s high
30,969.50
settle
31,403.00
open
30,792.00
low, 351.00 beneath Wednesday’s low
Recorded 30-minute bars, in time order
6:00 PM ET
Wednesday evening: 31,403.00 to 31,439.50
10:30 PM ET
Wednesday evening: the bar holding the 31,466.00 day high; only its high is recorded
1:00 PM ET
Thursday: the bar holding the 30,792.00 day low; only its low is recorded
4:30 PM ET
Thursday, after the settlement: 30,995.25 to 31,026.00, close 31,021.25
Only selected 30-minute bars were preserved, so the path between them is not shown; all bars share one price scale.
Globex, Friday
6:00 PM ET
Thursday: Globex reopened for the Friday session
31,020.50
Friday-session open at the time of writing, not Thursday
31,036.25
Friday-session high at the time of writing, not Thursday
30,995.00
Friday-session low at the time of writing, not Thursday
On the desktop chart the solid tick on each daily bar is the settle and the dashed tick the open. The chart’s 30-minute bars place Thursday’s 31,466.00 high inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening and the 30,792.00 low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar; only selected bars were preserved, so the figure makes no claim about the path between them. The 4:30 PM ET bar traded after the settlement, and the Friday figures belong to the new session at the time of writing.
Seven-session closes
Settles from 09/30 to 10/08 against the prior week’s range
PRIOR WEEK 30,356.75 TO 31,282.5009/28 low 30,356.7510/07 high 31,521.00low 31,143.00high 31,466.00low 30,792.00lower highand lower lowCLOSERANGEWED 09/3030,698.75393.75THU 10/0130,760.50622.25FRI 10/0231,061.75522.25MON 10/0531,317.75413.50TUE 10/0631,483.25307.25WED 10/0731,402.25378.00THU 10/0830,969.50674.00Range row: daily high minus low in points, as listed in the review; the 09/29 range was 353.50
Prior week
30,356.75 to 31,282.50
Thu 10/08 close
30,969.50
Close, oldest to newest
WED 09/30
30,698.75
+85.50
Range 393.75 points
The prior week, 09/28 to 10/02, ran from the 09/28 low 30,356.75 to the 10/02 high 31,282.50
THU 10/01
30,760.50
+61.75
Range 622.25 points
FRI 10/02
31,061.75
+301.25
Range 522.25 points
MON 10/05
31,317.75
+256.00
Range 413.50 points
TUE 10/06
31,483.25
+165.50
Range 307.25 points
WED 10/07
31,402.25
-81.00
Range 378.00 points
high 31,521.00, low 31,143.00
THU 10/08
30,969.50
-432.75
Range 674.00 points
high 31,466.00, low 30,792.00, a lower high and lower low
Right-hand figure: change from the prior close in points; the 09/30 change is measured from the 30,613.25 settle of 09/29, whose range was 353.50. Each track shares one price scale; the grey band is the prior week range on the three sessions inside it, the dot the close, and the shaded bar the session range for 10/07 and 10/08. Range: daily high minus low in points, as listed in the review.
Closes and ranges come from the provider’s published daily settlement series; only the 10/07 and 10/08 ranges are drawn. The 10/08 bar sits beneath the 10/07 bar at both ends, its 31,466.00 high sat 183.50 points above the prior week’s top and its 30,792.00 low stayed inside that week’s range.
Primary setup
Entry, stop and targets to scale
RISK 170 POINTS FROM THE 31,210 MIDPOINT, 1RREWARD BLOCKS ALSO START AT THE 31,210 MIDPOINT31,380.00STOP31,040.00T130,870.00T230,700.00T3Thu settle 30,969.50SHORT ENTRY ZONE31,180.00 to 31,240.00midpoint 31,210Thursday high 31,466.00Wed settle 31,402.25Pivot R1 31,359.673 standard deviations 31,353.152 standard deviations 31,282.755-day average 31,246.90Cash 31,000 largest gamma in futures 31,243.69Cash 30,990 threshold in futures 31,233.691 standard deviation 31,191.003-10 day stall 31,122.18Pivot Point 31,075.839-day crossing 31,038.38T1 1 : 1.0, reward 170 from the midpoint9-day average 30,985.92Target price 30,922.97T2 1 : 2.0, reward 340 from the midpointCash 30,616 flip in futures 30,859.69Thursday low 30,792.0010/01 settle 30,760.501 standard deviation 30,748.0018-day crossing 30,707.31T3 1 : 3.0, reward 510 from the midpointPivot S1 30,685.672 standard deviations 30,656.2538.2 percent, 4-week high 30,637.24
Direction
Short
Entry band
31,180.00 to 31,240.00
Short entry zone
Stop
31,380.00
Risk
170
points from the 31,210 midpoint, 1R
Targets, rewards from the 31,210 midpoint
T1 31,040.00
1 : 1.0, reward 170 from the midpoint
T2 30,870.00
1 : 2.0, reward 340 from the midpoint
T3 30,700.00
1 : 3.0, reward 510 from the midpoint
Ladder, Thursday's high down to the 4-week retracement
31,466.00
Thursday high
+496.50
31,402.25
Wed settle
+432.75
31,380.00
Stop
+410.50
31,359.67
Pivot R1
+390.17
31,353.15
3 standard deviations
+383.65
31,282.75
2 standard deviations
+313.25
31,246.90
5-day average
+277.40
31,243.69
Cash 31,000 largest gamma in futures
+274.19
31,180 to 31,240
Short entry zone, midpoint 31,210
31,233.69
Cash 30,990 threshold in futures
+264.19
31,191.00
1 standard deviation
+221.50
31,122.18
3-10 day stall
+152.68
31,075.83
Pivot Point
+106.33
31,040.00
T1, 1 : 1.0, reward 170
+70.50
31,038.38
9-day crossing
+68.88
30,985.92
9-day average
+16.42
Thu settle
30,969.50
30,922.97
Target price
-46.53
30,870.00
T2, 1 : 2.0, reward 340
-99.50
30,859.69
Cash 30,616 flip in futures
-109.81
30,792.00
Thursday low
-177.50
30,760.50
10/01 settle
-209.00
30,748.00
1 standard deviation
-221.50
30,707.31
18-day crossing
-262.19
30,700.00
T3, 1 : 3.0, reward 510
-269.50
30,685.67
Pivot S1
-283.83
30,656.25
2 standard deviations
-313.25
30,637.24
38.2 percent, 4-week high
-332.26
RISK 170 POINTS FROM THE 31,210 MIDPOINT, 1R; the reward blocks also start at the 31,210 midpoint. Right-hand figures are distances in points from the settle.
Risk and reward blocks are all measured from the 31,210 midpoint of the entry zone against the 31,380 stop, 170 points of risk; the stop sits 20.33 points above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 and 26.85 points above three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15. The dotted line is the Thursday settle, beneath the entry zone.
Moving-average stack
Averages against the Thursday settle, with the gap in points
Highest to lowest: 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-daygap 277.40 above5-day31,246.90gap 16.42 above9-day30,985.92gap 449.26 beneath20-day30,520.24gap 912.24 beneath50-day30,057.26gap 944.43 beneath100-day30,025.07gap 2,790.45 beneath200-day28,179.0530,969.50SETTLEFOUR AVERAGES BENEATH THE SETTLE, TWO ABOVE IT
Above the settle
Two
5-day and 9-day
Beneath the settle
Four
20-day to 200-day
Highest to lowest: 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-day.
Two averages above the settle
31,246.90
5-day, gap 277.40 above
30,985.92
9-day, gap 16.42 above
Settle
30,969.50
Four averages beneath the settle
30,520.24
20-day, gap 449.26 beneath
30,057.26
50-day, gap 912.24 beneath
30,025.07
100-day, gap 944.43 beneath
28,179.05
200-day, gap 2,790.45 beneath
Gaps are in points from the 30,969.50 settle, measured from the unrounded averages.
Averages are shown to two decimals as computed from the settlement series; the gaps are measured from the unrounded averages, as the review states them. The projection grid puts the Friday crossing prices at 31,038.38 for the 9-day, 30,707.31 for the 18-day and 30,150.84 for the 40-day average.
Expected range
Session bands, scenario ranges and four volatility envelopes
settle 30,969.50GLOBEX6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET30,800 to 31,150LONDON3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET30,750 to 31,200MORNING9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET30,650 to 31,280AFTERNOON12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET30,650 to 31,250LOW RANGEfull-session scenario30,750 to 31,200MID RANGEfull session, most likely30,650 to 31,300HIGH RANGEfull-session scenario30,500 to 31,435ONE ATR465.69 points each side30,503.81 to 31,435.19ONE DEVIATIONpublished band30,748 to 31,191TWO DEVIATIONSpublished band30,656.25 to 31,282.75THREE DEVIATIONSpublished band30,585.85 to 31,353.15
Globex30,800 to 31,150
6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET
London30,750 to 31,200
3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET
Morning30,650 to 31,280
9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET
Afternoon30,650 to 31,250
12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET
Low range30,750 to 31,200
full-session scenario
Mid range30,650 to 31,300
full session, most likely
High range30,500 to 31,435
full-session scenario
One ATR30,503.81 to 31,435.19
465.69 points each side
One deviation30,748 to 31,191
published band
Two deviations30,656.25 to 31,282.75
published band
Three deviations30,585.85 to 31,353.15
published band
The dark tick on every bar marks the settle 30,969.50. All bars share one price scale.
Session bands and scenario ranges are analyst judgment; one ATR is 465.69 points each side of the settle. The deviation bands describe settlement dispersion only.
Session bands and scenario ranges are analyst judgment and carry no calibration; the envelopes are one 14-day average true range and the published one, two and three standard deviation bands, which describe settlement dispersion only.
Momentum gauges
Where each reading sits on its own scale
56.249-DAY RELATIVE STRENGTH14-day reads 57.9357.3220-DAY RELATIVE STRENGTHupper half of the scale62.22%14-DAY RAW STOCHASTIC9-day raw reads 48.64%81.90%14-DAY %Kbeneath its 89.90% %D80%COMPOSITE BUYdown from 88%, weakening
9-day relative strength
56.24
14-day reads 57.93
20-day relative strength
57.32
upper half of the scale
14-day raw stochastic
62.22%
9-day raw reads 48.64%
14-day %K
81.90%
beneath its 89.90% %D
Composite buy
80%
down from 88%, weakening
Readings are as published on the technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the page may carry the live Globex price. The composite read a week ago was 80 percent buy and a month ago 56 percent buy, and signal strength is described as minimum.
Directional movement
Positive against negative, with trend strength
POSITIVE DIRECTIONNEGATIVE DIRECTIONINDEX9-DAY24.1120.1927.8414-DAY24.4919.4219.40Spread 3.92 on the 9-day and 5.07 on the 14-day: positive direction still leads on both lookbacks.
9-day
Positive direction24.11
Negative direction20.19
27.84
directional index
3.92
spread, positive minus negative
14-day
Positive direction24.49
Negative direction19.42
19.40
directional index
5.07
spread, positive minus negative
Spread 3.92 on the 9-day and 5.07 on the 14-day: positive direction still leads on both lookbacks.
Historic volatility reads 11.99 percent on the 9-day and 15.78 percent on the 14-day.
Cross-asset moves
Thursday percent changes
LOWERHIGHER+4.67%Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge+3.64%Crude, November contract+2.19%Volatility index+0.39%Gold, December contract+0.10%Dow industrials-0.10%Dollar index-0.47%S&P 500 cash index-1.38%December Nasdaq-100 futures-1.39%Nasdaq-100 cash index-3.39%Semiconductor index
Thursday percent changes
Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge+4.67%
Crude, November contract+3.64%
Volatility index+2.19%
Gold, December contract+0.39%
Dow industrials+0.10%
Dollar index-0.10%
S&P 500 cash index-0.47%
December Nasdaq-100 futures-1.38%
Nasdaq-100 cash index-1.39%
Semiconductor index-3.39%
Green bars rose and red bars fell; bar length is to scale. The two volatility-gauge percentages and the gold percentage are computed from the close and the stated change.
The two volatility-gauge percentages and the gold percentage are computed from the close and the stated change; the crude percentage matches the dated settles of 88.28 and 91.49; the rest are as published. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points; the volatility index closed at 15.41, up 0.33, and the Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge at 21.98, up 0.98.
Cash index positioning map
Cash Nasdaq-100 terms as published
28,000Primary put-side base30,616Modeled gamma flip30,990thresholdModeled volatility31,160.08reference 31,160Wednesday close,32,000Key strike30,000Key strike30,725.81Thursday close31,000Largest gamma, keystrike31,500Call-side ceiling, keystrike
Cash terms as published. The Thursday close at 30,725.81 sits 774.19 points beneath the 31,500 ceiling, 264.19 beneath the 30,990 modeled volatility threshold and 109.81 above the 30,616 modeled gamma flip. Highest first.
32,000
Key strike
31,500
Call-side ceiling, key strike
31,160.08
Wednesday close, reference 31,160
31,000
Largest gamma, key strike
30,990
Modeled volatility threshold
30,725.81
Thursday close
30,616
Modeled gamma flip
30,000
Key strike
28,000
Primary put-side base
All 9 readings as a table
Lowest to highest.
PriceReading
28,000Primary put-side base
30,000Key strike
30,616Modeled gamma flip
30,725.81Thursday close
30,990Modeled volatility threshold
31,000Largest gamma, key strike
31,160.08Wednesday close, reference 31,160
31,500Call-side ceiling, key strike
32,000Key strike
At the measured 243.69 point basis the cash 31,500 ceiling translates to 31,743.69 in futures, the 31,000 largest gamma concentration to 31,243.69, the 30,990 modeled volatility threshold to 31,233.69 and the 30,616 modeled gamma flip to 30,859.69; no other cash level is converted. Gamma tilt on the index reads 1.591 with a gamma notional of plus 14.193 million dollars. The desk note’s reference column carries Wednesday’s closes. The axis is broken on the left so the 28,000 put-side base fits.
Fund proxy concentrations
Fund price domain only, never converted to futures prices
700Primary put-side base750Modeled gamma flip757.71reference 757Wednesday close,748.74Console quote, dated2026-10-08757Modeled volatilitythreshold760Ceiling, largest gammaconcentration
Fund price domain only. The 748.74 console quote sits 8.26 beneath the 757 modeled volatility threshold, 1.26 beneath the 750 modeled gamma flip and 11.26 beneath the 760 ceiling. Highest first.
760
Ceiling, largest gamma concentration
757.71
Wednesday close, reference 757
757
Modeled volatility threshold
750
Modeled gamma flip
748.74
Console quote, dated 2026-10-08
700
Primary put-side base
All 6 readings as a table
Lowest to highest.
PriceReading
700Primary put-side base
748.74Console quote, dated 2026-10-08
750Modeled gamma flip
757Modeled volatility threshold
757.71Wednesday close, reference 757
760Ceiling, largest gamma concentration
Gamma tilt on the fund reads 1.054 and the gamma notional plus 245.869 million dollars. The fund console, marked as updated 2026-10-08, shows call gamma of minus 859 million and put gamma of minus 2.2 billion and attributes 15.70 percent of gamma to the nearest expiration, up from 12.59 percent. The axis is broken on the left so the 700 put-side base fits.
Friday calendar
All times Eastern; amber marks items reported by the news-feed calendar
THURSDAY, RECORDED4:30 AM ETA Federal Reserve governor speaks8:30 AM ETJobless claims 197 thousand, forecast 200 thousand, news-feed calendar12:02 PM ETNews feed: largest handset maker sets an October 13 launch12:17 PM ETNews feed: the President on Iran and the midterms12:42 PM ETPress report on an AI developer's revenue1:00 PM ETThirty-year bond auction: 5.618 percent, 2.540 cover, unconfirmed1:45 PM ETNews feed: regional Fed president, to 2:04 PM ET2:17 PM ETPress report on a chip-design software company4:00 PM ETSettlement at 30,969.504:00 PM ETPress report of a further launch around October 274:17 PM ETNews feed: Iranian state media on Hormuz explosions4:42 PM ETPress reports on Pentagon strike plans, to 4:45 PM ET6:00 PM ETGlobex reopens for the Friday session7:30 PM ETJapanese household spending, unconfirmedFRIDAY, OVERNIGHT3:30 AM ETEuropean Central Bank governing council member, unconfirmedFRIDAY, UNITED STATES AND CANADA8:30 AM ETCanadian employment: forecasts 5 thousand, 6.5 percent, unconfirmed9:30 AM ETCash open9:30 AM ETEuropean Central Bank executive board member, unconfirmed10:00 AM ETMichigan survey: 47.6, 4.7 and 3.5 percent forecasts, unconfirmed4:00 PM ETCash close, the last before the weekend4:00 PM ETA regional Federal Reserve president, unconfirmedAHEAD6:00 PM ETSunday, October 11: Globex resumesAll dayOctober 12: Columbus Day, Globex on normal hours7:00 AM ETOctober 13: the largest bank reports, about this time8:30 AM ETOctober 14: consumer price index for September2:00 AM ETOctober 15: largest contract chipmaker results
THURSDAY, RECORDED
4:30 AM ET
A Federal Reserve governor speaks
8:30 AM ET
Jobless claims 197 thousand, forecast 200 thousand, news-feed calendar
12:02 PM ET
News feed: largest handset maker sets an October 13 launch
12:17 PM ET
News feed: the President on Iran and the midterms
12:42 PM ET
Press report on an AI developer's revenue
1:00 PM ET
Thirty-year bond auction: 5.618 percent, 2.540 cover
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
1:45 PM ET
News feed: regional Fed president, to 2:04 PM ET
2:17 PM ET
Press report on a chip-design software company
4:00 PM ET
Settlement at 30,969.50
4:00 PM ET
Press report of a further launch around October 27
4:17 PM ET
News feed: Iranian state media on Hormuz explosions
4:42 PM ET
Press reports on Pentagon strike plans, to 4:45 PM ET
6:00 PM ET
Globex reopens for the Friday session
7:30 PM ET
Japanese household spending
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
FRIDAY, OVERNIGHT
3:30 AM ET
European Central Bank governing council member
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
FRIDAY, UNITED STATES AND CANADA
8:30 AM ET
Canadian employment: forecasts 5 thousand, 6.5 percent
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
9:30 AM ET
Cash open
9:30 AM ET
European Central Bank executive board member
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
10:00 AM ET
Michigan survey: 47.6, 4.7 and 3.5 percent forecasts
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
4:00 PM ET
Cash close, the last before the weekend
4:00 PM ET
A regional Federal Reserve president
Reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed
AHEAD
6:00 PM ET
Sunday, October 11: Globex resumes
All day
October 12: Columbus Day, Globex on normal hours
7:00 AM ET
October 13: the largest bank reports, about this time
8:30 AM ET
October 14: consumer price index for September
2:00 AM ET
October 15: largest contract chipmaker results
Amber times are reported by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed; in the review’s judgment the 10:00 AM ET inflation-expectations survey is the first-order event. Recorded Thursday items are news-feed items and press reports. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday.
Amber items with no confirmation on the calendar used for confirmed times are marked unconfirmed; navy marks items the calendar lists, grey marks recorded news-feed items, press reports and session times. In the review’s judgment the 10:00 AM ET inflation-expectations survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, is the first-order event. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday.
3.1 Resistance, top down
32,033.67
Pivot R3, the top of the computed ladder
31,749.83
Pivot R2, an extended reference
31,743.69
Cash-index 31,500 primary call-side ceiling at the measured 243.69 point basis
31,616.50
The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, set on 10/06, 647.00 points above the settle
31,521.00
Wednesday's high, 55.00 points above Thursday's
31,466.00
Thursday's high, printed inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening
31,402.25
Wednesday's settle, 432.75 points above Thursday's
31,359.67
Pivot R1; the 31,380 stop sits 20.33 points above it, and a settle above it negates the short
31,353.15
Three standard deviations resistance, 26.85 points beneath the stop
31,282.75
Two standard deviations resistance; acceptance above it removes the edge
31,246.90
5-day settlement average, 277.40 points above the settle
31,243.69
Cash-index 31,000 largest gamma concentration at the measured basis
31,233.69
Cash-index 30,990 modeled volatility threshold at the measured basis, inside the 31,180 to 31,240 entry band
31,191.00
One standard deviation resistance, inside the entry band
31,122.18
3-10 day average crossover stall price
31,075.83
Pivot Point, 106.33 points above the settle
31,038.38
Price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Friday; Target 1 at 31,040 sits 1.62 points above it
31,036.25
High of the new Friday session at the time of writing, after the 6:00 PM ET Thursday reopen; it belongs to Friday, not Thursday
31,021.25
Close of the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settlement; not used as the settlement
30,985.92
9-day settlement average, the first resistance, 16.42 points above the settle
3.2 Support, top down
30,922.97
Target price published for Friday, the first support, 46.53 points beneath the settle
30,859.69
Cash-index 30,616 modeled gamma-flip level at the measured basis; Target 2 at 30,870 sits 10.31 points above it
30,792.00
Thursday's low, printed inside the 1:00 PM ET bar, 351.00 points beneath Wednesday's
30,760.50
The 10/01 settle; Thursday's settle is the lowest since
30,748.00
One standard deviation support
30,707.31
Price at which the 18-day average would be crossed on Friday
30,685.67
Pivot S1; Target 3 at 30,700 sits 14.33 points above it
30,656.25
Two standard deviations support
30,637.24
38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high
30,585.85
Three standard deviations support
30,520.24
20-day settlement average, 449.26 points beneath the settle
30,401.83
Pivot S2
30,356.75
Low of the September 28 to October 2 week
30,334.75
50 percent retracement of the four-week range
30,150.84
Price at which the 40-day average would be crossed on Friday
30,057.26
50-day settlement average, 912.24 points beneath the settle
30,037.12
38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high
30,032.26
38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low
30,025.07
100-day settlement average, 944.43 points beneath the settle
30,011.67
Pivot S3, the bottom of the computed ladder

Cash-index levels at the measured 243.69 point basis: the 31,500 call-side ceiling translates to 31,743.69 in futures, the 31,000 largest gamma concentration to 31,243.69, the 30,990 modeled volatility threshold to 31,233.69 and the 30,616 modeled gamma flip to 30,859.69. No other cash level is translated.

Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review

3.1 Resistance, level by level

The settle at 30,969.50 sits 16.42 points beneath the 9-day settlement average at 30,985.92, and the 9-day average crossing price at 31,038.38 and the Pivot Point at 31,075.83 form the first resistance. The 3-10 day average crossover stall at 31,122.18 and one standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 follow, then 31,233.69 and 31,243.69, the December equivalents of the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,990 and the largest gamma concentration at NDX 31,000, the band that anchors the setup. The 5-day settlement average at 31,246.90, two standard deviations resistance at 31,282.75, three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 come next, then Wednesday's 31,521.00 high and the 31,616.50 52-week high. Pivot R2 at 31,749.83, the 31,743.69 equivalent of the primary call side ceiling at NDX 31,500, and Pivot R3 at 32,033.67 are the extended references.

3.2 Support, level by level

Beneath the settle, the published target price at 30,922.97 and the 30,859.69 equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,616 come first, followed by Thursday's 30,792.00 low and one standard deviation support at 30,748.00. The 18-day average crossing at 30,707.31, Pivot S1 at 30,685.67, two standard deviations support at 30,656.25, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24 and three standard deviations support at 30,585.85 form the next grouping. The 20-day settlement average at 30,520.24, Pivot S2 at 30,401.83 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,334.75 follow, then the 50-day settlement average at 30,057.26 and Pivot S3 at 30,011.67.

1. Executive Summary

The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 30,969.50 on Thursday, down 432.75 points or 1.38 percent from Wednesday's settle of 31,402.25, after trading between 31,466.00 and 30,792.00, a 674.00 point daily range. The settle finished at 26.3 percent of the range, and the 674.00 point range was 1.39 times the published 14-day average daily range of 486.63 points. Thursday printed a lower high and a lower low against Wednesday and a second consecutive lower settle; the range was the widest since the 958.75 point range of 09/21, and the settle was the lowest since the 30,760.50 settle of 10/01.

Semiconductors led the decline. The news feed carried at 12:42 PM ET a press report that a leading artificial-intelligence developer's annualised revenue is about 20 billion dollars less than previously signalled, and the desk note, the 5:11 PM ET edition, said data-center related shares fell sharply, with declines of about 5 percent in several chip and infrastructure names and about 3 percent in the largest chipmaker. The semiconductor index closed down 3.39 percent. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 30,725.81, down 1.39 percent, against a 0.47 percent decline in the S&P 500 and a 0.10 percent gain in the Dow.

The settle sits beneath the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages and above the 20-day through 200-day, positive direction still leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite multi-indicator read is 80 percent buy, with strength described as minimum and direction as weakening. Dealer positioning places the Nasdaq-100 cash close 264.19 points beneath the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,990 and 109.81 points above the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,616.

The published 14-day average true range of 465.69 points is 1.50 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 31,180 to 31,240 band, around one standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 and 31,233.69, the December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold, stopped at 31,380 above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67, with objectives at 31,040, 30,870 and an extended 30,700.

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Thursday session opened at 31,403.00 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.75 above Wednesday's settle, marked a daily high of 31,466.00 and a daily low of 30,792.00, and settled at 30,969.50. The chart's 30-minute bars place the 31,466.00 high inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening and the 30,792.00 low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. Only the session extremes and selected bars were preserved, not a complete intraday series, so this review makes no claim about the path between those bars.

After the settlement, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,021.25; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday; the provider's day open, high and low of 31,020.50, 31,036.25 and 30,995.00 shown at the time of writing belong to that new session, not to Thursday.

The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder and were not read independently from a bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 32,033.67 minus the third support point at 30,011.67, divided by three, returns 674.00, and the second resistance point at 31,749.83 minus the second support point at 30,401.83, divided by two, returns the same 674.00. Three times the Pivot Point of 31,075.83 less the 30,969.50 settle gives a high plus low sum of 62,257.99, 0.01 from the 62,258.00 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 31,466.00 and 30,792.00 reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Thursday daily bar carry the same 31,466.00 high and 30,792.00 low.

2.2 Daily Structure

Thursday's 31,466.00 high sits 55.00 points beneath Wednesday's 31,521.00, and its 30,792.00 low sits 351.00 points beneath Wednesday's 31,143.00. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 31,151.50, 31,282.50, 31,371.00, 31,616.50, 31,521.00 and 31,466.00, and the sequence of session lows reads 30,529.25, 30,760.25, 30,957.50, 31,309.25, 31,143.00 and 30,792.00. Settlements over the same sessions ran 30,760.50, 31,061.75, 31,317.75, 31,483.25, 31,402.25 and 30,969.50.

The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 31,282.50 to 30,356.75; Thursday's 31,466.00 high sat 183.50 points above that week's high, while its 30,792.00 low sat inside that week's range. This week, October 5 through Thursday, has spanned 31,616.50 to 30,792.00. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 31,616.50, set on 10/06, sits 647.00 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 29,053.00 sits 1,916.50 points beneath it.

No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 31,616.50 above and 27,482.00 beneath.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 353.50, 393.75, 622.25, 522.25, 413.50, 307.25, 378.00 and 674.00, so Thursday's range was the widest of the group. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 47.00, plus 85.50, plus 61.75, plus 301.25, plus 256.00, plus 165.50, minus 81.00 and minus 432.75.

The retracement grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,334.75 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 30,032.26, all beneath the settle. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high sits at 30,037.12. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Thursday. The 5-day average stands at 31,246.90, the 9-day at 30,985.92, the 20-day at 30,520.24, the 50-day at 30,057.26, the 100-day at 30,025.07 and the 200-day at 28,179.05.

The 30,969.50 settle sits 277.40 points beneath the 5-day average and 16.42 beneath the 9-day, and 449.26 above the 20-day, 912.24 above the 50-day, 944.43 above the 100-day and 2,790.45 above the 200-day. The 5-day average rose 41.80 points from Wednesday's 31,205.10, because the 10/01 settle of 30,760.50 left the window and was replaced by 30,969.50. The 9-day average rose 8.92 points from 30,977.00 as the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 left its window, and the 20-day rose 77.19 points from 30,443.05 as the 09/10 settle of 29,425.75 left. The 50-day average rose 67.12 points from 29,990.15 as the 07/29 settle of 27,613.75 left its window.

The 50-day average sits 32.19 points above the 100-day because the last 50 settlements averaged 30,057.26 against 30,025.07 for the full 100, which means the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,992.88. The 20-day sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 29,748.61. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Friday: 31,038.38 for the 9-day, 30,707.31 for the 18-day and 30,150.84 for the 40-day.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page may carry the live Globex price in place of the settle, so they are quoted as published. The 9-day relative strength reads 56.24, the 14-day relative strength 57.93 and the 20-day relative strength 57.32.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 48.64 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 62.22 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 81.90 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 89.90 percent, so the smoothed lines have turned down from high readings.

The 9-day directional index ADX reads 27.84 with the 9-day +DI at 24.11 and the 9-day -DI at 20.19; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 19.40 with the 14-day +DI at 24.49 and the 14-day -DI at 19.42, so positive direction still leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 11.99 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 15.78 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 80 percent buy, down from 88 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as minimum and direction as weakening. The snapshot history reads 80 percent buy a week ago and 56 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 50 percent buy and the long-horizon group 100 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 465.69 points and the 14-day average daily range at 486.63 points; the 9-day average true range is 466.37 with a 9-day average daily range of 469.83, and the 20-day average true range is 474.92 with a 20-day average daily range of 472.40. Thursday's 674.00 point range was 1.39 times the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 465.69 points from the 30,969.50 settle frames Friday between 30,503.81 and 31,435.19. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 30,748.00 to 31,191.00, two spans 30,656.25 to 31,282.75 and three spans 30,585.85 to 31,353.15. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.

4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle

The news feed carried at 12:42 PM ET a press report that a leading artificial-intelligence developer's annualised revenue is about 20 billion dollars less than previously signalled, and provider commentary said chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares were hammered on demand concerns after the report. Among the largest companies, the news feed carried at 12:02 PM ET that the largest handset maker announced an October 13 product launch event, and at 4:00 PM ET a press report of a further launch around October 27. These are statements carried by the news feed and not earnings data, and the captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Thursday evening or Friday.

4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation

The semiconductor index closed at 12,623.71, down 442.44 points or 3.39 percent, after a session range of 12,483.95 to 12,997.48. The desk note said data-center related shares saw sharp declines, with drops of about 5 percent in several chip and infrastructure names, about 4 percent in two others and about 3 percent in the largest chipmaker, while energy and consumer staples showed relative strength as capital rotated toward defensive sectors. The news feed carried at 2:17 PM ET a press report that a chip-design software company is looking to help Chinese artificial-intelligence labs speed chip design.

4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)

The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points, and the thirty-year yield index at 5.61 percent. A thirty-year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 5.618 percent with a bid-to-cover of 2.540, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A regional Federal Reserve president said between 1:45 PM ET and 2:04 PM ET, per the news feed, that more firming will be required and that rates ought to be going up in the next six to nine months, while a Federal Reserve governor spoke at 4:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand against a forecast of 200 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. Lower yields did not lift the Nasdaq-100 on Thursday, which in this review's interpretation points to the earnings-outlook concern as the session's driver, ahead of duration.

4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop

The President said at 12:17 PM ET, per the news feed, that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms. After the cash close, an Iranian state media report at 4:17 PM ET attributed explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz to tankers striking mines, and press reports between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran. Crude rose 3.64 percent on the session. These are statements carried by the news feed and were not confirmed.

4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility

The Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility gauge closed at 21.98, up 0.98. The S&P 500 volatility index closed at 15.41, up 0.33; the desk note put the volatility-of-volatility index at 88, up five points. The dollar index slipped 0.10 percent to 102.14. The December contract's settle of 30,969.50 less the 30,725.81 cash close gives a measured closing basis of 243.69 points, against 242.17 on Wednesday.

4.6 Institutional Positioning

Thursday's volume on the December contract was 685,470 contracts against 509,635 on Wednesday. The open-interest column on the provider's settlement series lags one session (the 2026-10-08 row reads 281,627 and the 2026-10-07 row 280,402), so no open-interest change is asserted for Thursday. The desk note said the S&P 500 hedging-flow measure finished at about minus 2 billion dollars of delta, driven mainly by same-day put buying, and the broader equities measure at about minus 3 billion, dominated by longer-dated call selling, which it read as a risk-off session.

5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)

This section uses the QQQ fund as the proxy for the positioning data available, alongside the index levels published in the same desk note. The desk note read for this section is the 5:11 PM ET edition for Thursday. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes, not Thursday's: NDX 31,160 equals Wednesday's 31,160.08 cash close and QQQ 757 equals Wednesday's 757.71 fund close, and 31,160.08 less 1.39 percent gives 30,726.9, consistent with the provider's 30,725.81 close. Every level below is read against Thursday's 30,725.81 cash close.

On the Nasdaq-100 index the primary call side ceiling sits at NDX 31,500, the largest gamma concentration at NDX 31,000, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,990, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,616 and the primary put side support base at NDX 28,000. The 30,725.81 cash close sits 774.19 points beneath the 31,500 ceiling, 264.19 points beneath the threshold and 109.81 points above the flip level. The note lists NDX 31,000, 31,500, 30,000 and 32,000 as key strikes. Gamma tilt reads 1.591 for the index and 1.054 for the fund, and gamma notional reads plus 14.193 million for the index and plus 245.869 million for the fund.

On the QQQ proxy the primary call side ceiling and the largest gamma concentration sit at 760, the modeled volatility threshold at 757, the modeled gamma-flip level at 750 and the primary put side support base at 700. The fund's positioning console, marked as updated 2026-10-08, showed a 748.74 quote against a 757.71 previous close, beneath both the 757 threshold and the 750 flip level, with call gamma of minus 859 million against put gamma of minus 2.2 billion and 15.70 percent of gamma attributed to the nearest expiration, up from 12.59 percent. The console's high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded.

At the measured closing basis of 243.69 points, the December settlement of 30,969.50 less the 30,725.81 cash close, NDX 31,500 corresponds to 31,743.69 on the December contract, the largest concentration at NDX 31,000 to 31,243.69, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,990 to 31,233.69 and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,616 to 30,859.69. These are conversions made by this review; the source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.

In this review's interpretation a cash close beneath the modeled volatility threshold on the index, and beneath both the threshold and the flip level on the fund, leaves the contract in the less dampened zone, and the 31,233.69 threshold equivalent is the level the setup in section 8 sells against.

6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex and Asia)

The contract reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday with the 4:17 PM ET state media report on Hormuz, carried by the news feed, and the 4:42 PM ET to 4:45 PM ET press reports on Pentagon strike plans already released. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 31,075.83, expected Globex band roughly 30,800 to 31,150.

6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)

A European Central Bank governing council member is listed at 3:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Thursday's 674.00 point range shows that moves well beyond the average daily range remain possible. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 30,750 to 31,200.

6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, RTH Open)

Canadian employment is listed at 8:30 AM ET, and the University of Michigan preliminary survey at 10:00 AM ET with a one-year inflation expectation forecast of 4.7 percent, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test after Thursday's chip-led decline. Expected band roughly 30,650 to 31,280, with the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band the first meaningful resistance above the Pivot Point.

6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Friday)

The cash close at 4:00 PM ET is the last before the weekend, and a regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 30,650 to 31,250.

6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)

There is no Friday evening session; Globex trading resumes at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, so two days of weekend headline exposure separate Friday's close from the next open. Monday, October 12, is the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times, as the calendar lists it. A weekend gap above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 or beneath Pivot S1 at 30,685.67 would reset the level map.

6.6 Expected Range (Friday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 30,750 to 31,200; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 30,650 to 31,300; High-range scenario: 30,500 to 31,435.

6.7 Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 30,685.67 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67, with a rally toward the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band that fails beneath Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 weighted above a sustained recovery, because the settle sits beneath the 5-day and 9-day averages, the cash close sits beneath the modeled volatility threshold and the composite's strength is described as minimum with direction weakening. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a recovery in chip shares that lifts the contract through Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 toward Wednesday's 31,521.00 high.

7. Friday Economic Calendar

The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET Thursday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank governing council member speaks at 3:30 AM ET Friday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.

Canadian employment and the unemployment rate are listed at 8:30 AM ET, with forecasts of 5 thousand jobs and 6.5 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, and the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET, with forecasts of 47.6 for sentiment, 4.7 percent for one-year inflation expectations and 3.5 percent for five-year expectations, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash session runs from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Friday.

Monday, October 12, is the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours, as the calendar lists it. Bank earnings begin on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, the consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the largest contract chipmaker's results conference is scheduled for 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order scheduled event for the Nasdaq-100 on Friday is the 10:00 AM ET inflation-expectations survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, with chip-sector follow-through the main unscheduled influence.

8. Primary Trade Setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The settle sits beneath the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages after a 674.00 point range that closed near the lower quarter, at 26.3 percent, the cash close sits beneath the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,990, and the composite's strength is described as minimum with direction weakening; a rally into one standard deviation resistance at 31,191.00 and 31,233.69, the December equivalent of that threshold, offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67. The composite still reads 80 percent buy and positive direction leads on the directional systems, so the setup is an analyst judgment that Thursday's chip-led selling extends from a rally, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 31,180 to 31,240

Stop Loss: 31,380 (above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 and three standard deviations resistance at 31,353.15)

Target 1 (T1): 31,040 (1.62 above the 9-day average crossing price at 31,038.38)

Target 2 (T2): 30,870 (10.31 above 30,859.69, the December equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 30,700 (14.33 above Pivot S1 at 30,685.67)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above two standard deviations resistance at 31,282.75 and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 31,282.75.

Macro override: A sharp recovery in chip shares, or a fall in yields after the inflation-expectations survey that revives large-capitalisation buying, would invalidate the short in real time. In that scenario a gap above the 31,380 stop removes the setup, and Wednesday's 31,521.00 high and the 31,616.50 52-week high become the references within one 14-day average true range of 465.69 points.

Alternate setup: the session review states none.

Sources and methodology

This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, NQZ26, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Thursday's close on October 8, 2026 for the Friday, October 9 session. Thursday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract and match the chart's completed daily bar. The Globex session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday, so the day open, high and low on the provider's overview at the time of writing belong to the Friday session and are not used as Thursday's range. The high and low are also the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and checked against all seven rungs. Only selected 30-minute bars were preserved: they place the high inside the 10:30 PM ET bar of Wednesday evening and the low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar, and the 6:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars charted above come from the same chart record. No other order within Thursday's session is stated.

The settlement averages were computed from the provider's 259-row daily settlement series, which excludes the incomplete Friday row, and are shown to two decimals; their gaps from the settle are measured from the unrounded averages. That series also supplies the seven closes charted above. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-08 row reads volume of 685,470 contracts and open interest of 281,627, and the 2026-10-07 row now reads volume of 509,635 and open interest of 280,402, where Thursday's outlook carried 500,010 and 281,627 for Wednesday. The open-interest column lags one session. The oscillator readings are cited as published. The two volatility-gauge percentages and the gold percentage are computed from the provider's closes and stated changes, and the crude percentage matches the dated settles. The 52-week high cited is 31,616.50, set on 10/06. Every key level comes from published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published moving-average projections and target price, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes; the four positioning conversions are added. The desk note is the 5:11 PM ET edition for Thursday; its reference prices are Wednesday's closes and are used as such, and the fund console is marked as updated 2026-10-08. Cash-denominated levels are translated with the measured 243.69 point basis, the settlement against the 4:00 PM ET cash close; the modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. Scenario ranges, session bands and the path weighting are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or press reports and were not matched on the calendar used for confirmed times, and every catalyst whose time had passed at the start of collection is recorded as completed.

Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here and the broad-index outlook for the same date is here. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.

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