At 8:30 AM ET on Friday the December Nasdaq-100 contract stood at 30,989.75. Within that 30-minute bar it reached 31,179.00. The bar coincided with the employment report, which the calendar lists at 8:30 AM ET, and payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast, per the news-feed calendar. The climb kept going after the 9:30 AM ET cash open. The 10:00 AM ET bar printed 31,282.50, the highest print since the 31,293.50 high of 06/22.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 31,061.75, up 301.25 points or 0.98 percent from Thursday's 30,760.50. It was a fourth consecutive higher settle, the highest since the 31,167.00 settle of 06/15 and the largest one-day gain since the 867.50 point advance of 09/21. The 522.25 point range ran 1.09 times the published 14-day average daily range of 479.66 points. The settle finished at 57.7 percent of it, 220.75 points beneath the high. The cash index closed at 30,807.93, up 1.00 percent, which provider commentary described as a new record high. Yields did not follow. The ten-year yield index closed five basis points higher at 5.28 percent. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, and Monday's first-order event is the 10:00 AM ET services survey, listed on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 31,061.75, up 301.25 points, at 57.7 percent of a 522.25 point range and 26.92 points above the Pivot Point at 31,034.83. Preliminary volume was 573,483 contracts, per the provider's daily record. Friday's open interest is not yet published. Thursday's row reads 272,272. The composite multi-indicator read rose to 88 percent buy, direction strongest. Every settlement average sits beneath the settle. Overhead: the 31,094.00 post-settlement high, the 31,130.25 afternoon high, the 31,189.04 stall, the 31,216.61 target price, the 31,243.82 to 31,256.62 group, the 31,282.50 high and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42. Beneath: the Pivot Point and the 31,028.50 stall, the 30,988.00 pullback low, one standard deviation support at 30,866.88, the 30,836.60 threshold and the 30,787.17 to 30,753.82 group. The primary setup is a long from 30,900 to 30,940, stop 30,740, targets 31,100, 31,280 and 31,460. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday. The first-order event is the 10:00 AM ET services survey, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Friday settled 401.75 points above the untouched 30,620 to 30,660 band
Our Friday outlook set a long from 30,620 to 30,660 with a stop at 30,440 and targets at 30,840, 31,040 and 31,240. Friday's completed bar, on the provider's daily record, opened at 30,771.25, marked a high of 31,282.50 and a low of 30,760.25, and settled at 31,061.75. Tonight's review states the same open, high, low and settle. Price never reached the band. The low stopped 100.25 points above its upper edge, and the 30,440 stop sat 320.25 points beneath that low. Above, the high ran 442.50 points through the 30,840 first target level, 242.50 through the 31,040 second and 42.50 through the 31,240 extension.
The 30-minute series gives the order. The session opened at 30,771.25, already 111.25 points above the band, and its first bar also printed the 30,760.25 low. The 7:00 PM ET Thursday bar was the first to trade above 30,840, reaching 30,854.75. Nothing traded above 31,040 before the 8:30 AM ET bar. The highest earlier print, 31,035.50 in the 5:30 AM ET bar, stopped 4.50 points short. The 8:30 AM ET bar reached 31,179.00, and the 10:00 AM ET bar printed 31,282.50, the first print above 31,240. No bar traded into the band. Bars show sequence only. With the zone untouched, no fill and no result is asserted. Settlement landed at 31,061.75, 401.75 points above the band's upper edge.
Our session bands sat too low. The Globex band of 30,650 to 30,900 held the low, 110.25 points above its bottom, while the 30,935.75 print in the 1:00 AM ET bar ran 35.75 points over its top. The European band topped out at 30,950. The 5:30 AM ET bar's 31,035.50 cleared it by 85.50. The morning band's 31,050 top gave way by 232.50 points to the 31,282.50 high. The afternoon band of 30,500 to 31,000 contained the 30,994.75 afternoon low, 5.25 points beneath its top, and the 31,130.25 afternoon high ran 130.25 over it. Across the full session the high cleared the 31,230 top of the high-range case by 52.50 points. The settle landed inside the mid-range case, 38.25 points beneath its 31,100 top.
The weighted path missed on the upside. We had the Globex session holding between the 30,633.29 deviation support and the 30,813.75 Pivot Point ahead of the 8:30 AM ET report. The 6:30 PM ET Thursday bar traded 22.00 points above that Pivot Point, at 30,835.75. The dip toward the 30,633.29 to 30,684.34 group never came. The low stayed 75.91 points above the group's top, and the 30,529.25 low was never tested.
Neither invalidation test triggered. The settle finished 585.75 points above the 30,476.00 Pivot S1 threshold. The low held 231.00 points above 30,529.25, so no 30-minute close could fall beneath it. The macro override named a strong employment report with firm wages that drove yields back toward Thursday's 5.34 percent session peak. By the news-feed calendar's figures the report was soft, with hourly earnings up 0.1 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast. The ten-year yield index still closed five basis points higher, at 5.28 percent, six basis points beneath that peak. On Iran, the President said at 3:58 PM ET that Iran is not doing well. We grade the card as written.
A 30,760.25 low at the reopen, a 31,282.50 high by 10:00 AM ET
Friday opened at 30,771.25 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 10.75 points above Thursday's settle. That first bar printed the 30,760.25 session low, a quarter point beneath the settle, and closed at 30,788.75. The Asian hours were firm. The 8:00 PM ET bar reached 30,920.00, the 9:30 PM ET bar dipped to 30,791.50 and the 1:00 AM ET bar reached 30,935.75.
Europe carried it higher. The 3:30 AM ET bar reached 30,990.00 and the 5:30 AM ET bar 31,035.50, before the 7:30 AM ET bar eased to 30,913.25. The 8:00 AM ET bar closed at 30,990.00. Then came the report. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which coincided with the employment report the calendar lists at that time, traded between 30,986.00 and 31,179.00 and closed at 31,169.00. The 9:00 AM ET bar reached 31,222.25.
The cash open followed at 9:30 AM ET. The 10:00 AM ET bar printed the 31,282.50 high and closed at 31,265.50. It gave ground fast. The 10:30 AM ET bar eased to 31,155.75, and the 11:00 AM ET bar fell to 30,988.00, 294.50 points beneath the high, before closing at 31,063.25. From the 11:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 30,994.75 and 31,130.25, a 135.50 point band, and the 3:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,070.00. Settlement at 4:00 PM ET was 31,061.75. The 4:00 PM ET bar after it reached 31,094.00, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,049.00. The preserved provider series holds 46 bars from the reopen through that bar.
Those extremes also come from the ladder. They are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 31,831.67 minus the third support point at 30,264.92, divided by three, returns 522.25. The second pair, 31,557.08 and 30,512.58, divided by two, returns the same 522.25. Three times the 31,034.83 Pivot Point less the settle gives 62,042.74, one hundredth from the 62,042.75 sum of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded. No Globex session has reopened. The provider's overview still shows the completed Friday session, and the chart's daily bar carries the same four figures.
Against Thursday the bar stepped up at both ends. The high sits 131.00 points above Thursday's 31,151.50, and the low 231.00 above Thursday's 30,529.25. Activity cooled. Preliminary volume was 573,483 contracts, per the provider's daily record, against 795,240 on Thursday's row as now published. Thursday's row carries open interest of 272,272, the figure the provider's overview also shows, and Friday's is not yet published.
The week finished higher. Across five sessions the contract gained 172.50 points or 0.56 percent from the 30,889.25 settle of 09/25. The prior week, September 21 through September 25, spanned 31,094.75 to 29,904.00, and Friday's high traded 187.75 points above its top. The 52-week high on the December contract stands at 31,336, 53.50 points above Friday's high and 274.25 above the settle. No prior-quarter high or low was captured.
Four higher settles in a row. The settlement sequence from 09/18 reads 29,917.25, 30,784.75, 31,028.50, 30,764.75, 30,766.75, 30,889.25, 30,566.25, 30,613.25, 30,698.75, 30,760.50 and 31,061.75. The four gains add up to 495.50 points from the 30,566.25 settle of 09/28. The settle now sits 33.25 points above the 09/22 settle of 31,028.50, so the contract has cleared the settlement highs of the late-September consolidation. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 457.50, 320.50, 564.00, 353.50, 393.75, 622.25 and 522.25. The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,430.83 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,167.75. No four-hour series was captured. The 30-minute series is the only intraday evidence used.
Every average sits beneath the settle. Computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 260 completed sessions through Friday, the 5-day stands at 30,740.10, the 9-day at 30,794.42, the 20-day at 30,204.70, the 50-day at 29,811.22, the 100-day at 29,970.59 and the 200-day at 28,074.26. The settle sits 321.65 points above the 5-day, 267.33 above the 9-day, 857.05 above the 20-day and 1,250.53 above the 50-day. It is 1,091.16 above the 100-day and 2,987.49 above the 200-day.
Window arithmetic explains the moves. The 5-day rose 34.50 points from Thursday's 30,705.60 as the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 left its window. The 9-day rose 30.78 from 30,763.64 as the 09/21 settle of 30,784.75 left, and the 20-day rose 62.15 from 30,142.55 as the 09/03 settle of 29,818.75 left. The 100-day sits 159.37 points above the 50-day. Its older 50 settles averaged 30,129.96, higher than the latest 50. The projection grid gives 30,765.16 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Monday, 296.59 points beneath the settle.
Momentum is stretched. The oscillator figures are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session, read with the Friday settle as the most recent value because no Globex session reopens until Sunday. Relative strength reads 69.25 on the 9-day, 64.54 on the 14-day and 60.91 on the 20-day. The 14-day stochastic sits near the top of its range. Its raw reading is 90.10 percent, with %K at 84.02 percent above %D at 80.18 percent.
Direction reads positive above negative. On the 9-day the directional index reads 25.73, with positive direction at 28.48 and negative at 13.14; on the 14-day it reads 17.39, with positive direction at 26.82 against negative at 15.53. Historic volatility reads 10.03 percent on the 9-day and 15.33 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 88 percent buy, up from 80 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as average and direction as strongest. A week ago it also read 88 percent buy. A month ago, 8 percent sell. The short-horizon and medium-horizon groups average 100 percent buy, the long-horizon group 33 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
Volatility frames Monday. The published 14-day average true range stands at 470.64 points, 1.52 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 479.66; the 9-day figures are 472.38 and 453.47, and the 20-day figures 480.87 and 450.79. One 14-day average true range either side of the settle spans 30,591.11 to 31,532.39. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower, built from five settlements. One deviation spans 30,866.88 to 31,256.62, two span 30,786.16 to 31,337.34 and three span 30,724.22 to 31,399.28. Those bands describe settlement dispersion only, and a weekend gap can open outside them.
Payrolls at 29,000, a 5.28 percent ten-year and a 2.40 percent chip gain
Start with the report. The calendar lists the employment report at 8:30 AM ET. Payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and 162,000 previously, the unemployment rate printed 4.2 percent against 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent on the month against 0.3 percent, all per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said August payrolls were revised to 133,000 from 162,000. The desk note said the priced chance of an October rate increase fell below 25 percent. Factory orders, which the calendar lists at 10:00 AM ET, rose 0.1 percent against a 0.2 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar.
Duration did not rally with the equity index. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.28 percent, up five basis points. Provider commentary said Treasury yields erased an early decline and that a regional Federal Reserve president said at least another 50 basis points of increases may be needed. Another regional president said at 3:06 PM ET that inflation is going the wrong way. No inflation-protected real yield was captured. Provider commentary also said the report bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve will not be forced to raise rates this month.
Chips led. The semiconductor index closed at 13,136.67, up 2.40 percent from 12,829.00, per the provider's daily record, and the desk note said the semiconductor fund rose about 2 percent. Provider commentary said the rally in chipmakers pushed the Nasdaq-100 to a new record high. The desk note said the large-capitalisation technology group rose about 2 percent and the technology fund about 1 percent to a record high, led by two large chip designers. Two cybersecurity names also set records, the desk note said. The cash index closed at 30,807.93, up 1.00 percent.
Single-name headlines sat in the background. An electric-vehicle maker reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 units against an estimate of 456,896, per the news feed. At 12:07 PM ET the news feed said a large internet-search company raised the price of its budget phone by 100 dollars. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday. The desk note lists bank earnings on 10/13 among its key dates, unconfirmed. None of these items is used as a level input.
Geopolitics ran into the close. The President said at 3:58 PM ET that Iran is not doing well, and at 4:00 PM ET that a diesel export ban will not be imposed. Provider commentary on crude cited press reports that Saudi Arabia plans an offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen and a coordinated release of strategic reserves. Crude fell 1.90 percent, which provider commentary said helped equities. Two days of headline exposure now separate the settle from the Sunday reopen.
The broad market lagged. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,722.72, up 0.73 percent, so the Nasdaq-100 cash index outperformed by 0.27 percentage points. The volatility index closed at 15.31, down 1.08 points, and its own volatility gauge at 87.02. The dollar index slipped 0.17 percent to 101.93, gold's December contract fell 0.95 percent to 4,162.3 and November WTI fell 1.90 percent to 91.11. The desk note said S&P 500 fixed-strike implied volatilities fell 1 to 3 points across strikes after the employment report.
Hedging flow split by index. The desk note said real-time hedging flow on the Nasdaq registered minus 3 billion dollars of delta on the day, dominated by same-day options, against plus 4 billion dollars on the S&P 500. The weekly positioning report covering September 29 was carried on the news feed at 3:41 PM ET. Its Nasdaq contract figures were not captured, so none is asserted.
Positioning comes next. The desk note used is the 5:12 PM ET edition for Friday, read at 6:17 PM ET, and its reference prices are the prior session's closes. The cash index reference of 30,501 equals Thursday's 30,501.56 cash close, and the fund reference of 742 equals Thursday's 742.03. Every level is therefore read against Friday's closes: 30,807.93 for the cash index and 749.58 for the technology fund. The fund closed up 1.02 percent, above the 748.64 52-week high shown on the positioning console.
On the cash index the largest gamma concentration sits at 30,000, 807.93 points beneath the close. The modeled gamma-flip level at 29,969 and the modeled volatility threshold at 29,470 both sit beneath it, and the primary put-side support base is 28,000. The key strikes are 30,000, 29,475, 31,000 and 30,500, and the combination levels 31,234, 30,837, 30,990 and 31,020. Gamma tilt reads 1.558 with a gamma notional of 10.452 million dollars, close to flat, and the 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.048. One oddity repeats. The call-side ceiling field reads 29,475, beneath both the close and the modeled gamma-flip level, so it is excluded from the level structure.
The fund carries the short gamma. Its largest gamma concentration and modeled gamma-flip level both sit at 740 and the modeled volatility threshold at 742, with the primary call-side ceiling at 760 and the primary put-side support base at 730. The fund closed at 749.58, above all three lower references and 10.42 beneath the 760 ceiling. Gamma tilt reads 0.909 and the gamma notional minus 210.636 million dollars, so the proxy's dealers carry a net short gamma position, and the 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.032. Put volume of 1.878 million contracts exceeded call volume of 1.359 million. The fund console dated 2026-10-02 attributes 26.66 percent of the fund's gamma and 5.05 percent of its delta to the nearest expiration. Its high and low volatility point fields are treated as low confidence and excluded.
Conversions carry the cash levels into futures. At the measured closing basis of 253.82 points, Friday's 31,061.75 settlement less the 30,807.93 cash close, both at 4:00 PM ET, cash 31,000 corresponds to 31,253.82, the cash 30,990 combination to 31,243.82, cash 30,500 to 30,753.82, cash 30,000 to 30,253.82 and the modeled gamma-flip level at 29,969 to 30,222.82. These are conversions made by this review. The source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled thresholds are not listed strikes. The fund serves as the positioning proxy for the dataset available. It stays secondary to technical structure and to the large-cap and semiconductor drivers. In this review's interpretation the proxy's net short gamma above its 742 threshold, with a quarter of its gamma in the nearest expiration, leaves room for larger moves on Monday in either direction.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a long from 30,900 to 30,940, a pullback zone between one standard deviation support at 30,866.88 and the 31,034.83 Pivot Point. The case rests on the bar. Friday produced a fourth consecutive higher settle, the highest since 06/15, above every settlement average, with the composite read at 88 percent buy and direction strongest. The stop at 30,740 sits beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and the 30,760.25 Friday low. Two readings cut the other way. The 14-day stochastic sits near the top of its range, and yields rose on the day. So the setup is an analyst judgment that momentum outweighs the stretched oscillators. The 14-day average true range of 470.64 points compares with a 180 point stop distance from the 30,920 midpoint. The settle sits 121.75 points above the top of the zone.
Overhead the references start 32.25 points above the settle, at the 31,094.00 post-settlement high in the 4:00 PM ET bar, with the 31,130.25 afternoon high in the 12:00 PM ET bar next. The 3-10 day crossover stall at 31,189.04 and the published target price at 31,216.61 follow. The cash 30,990 combination converts to 31,243.82 and the cash 31,000 key strike to 31,253.82, with one standard deviation resistance at 31,256.62 just above. Friday's 31,282.50 high and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42 sit 26.92 points apart. The 31,336 52-week high and two standard deviations resistance at 31,337.34 sit 1.34 points apart, with three at 31,399.28 above them. Pivot R2 at 31,557.08, the 14-day relative-strength 70 percent line at 31,571.18 and Pivot R3 at 31,831.67 are the extended references.
Support starts 26.92 points beneath the settle, at the 31,034.83 Pivot Point. The 9-day crossover stall at 31,028.50 sits 6.33 points lower, with the 30,988.00 morning pullback low beneath them. One standard deviation support at 30,866.88 sits 33.12 points beneath the zone, followed by the stochastic 80 percent threshold at 30,836.60. Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and two standard deviations support at 30,786.16 sit 1.01 points apart. The 9-day average crossing at 30,765.16, Friday's 30,760.25 low and the 30,753.82 conversion of the cash 30,500 strike sit directly beneath. All three hold above the 30,740 stop. Three standard deviations support at 30,724.22, Pivot S2 at 30,512.58 and the 38.2 percent retracement at 30,430.83 are the deeper references. Pivot S3 at 30,264.92, the cash 30,000 concentration at 30,253.82, the gamma-flip conversion at 30,222.82 and the 50 percent retracement at 30,167.75 lie beyond.
Sunday comes first. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday after two days of headline exposure. The President is listed to speak at 7:00 PM ET Friday, after the review was written, and Japanese services purchasing managers' data at 8:30 PM ET Sunday, both on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gap references above the settle are the 31,130.25 afternoon high, 31,256.62 and the 31,282.50 Friday high. Beneath it sit the 31,034.83 Pivot Point, 30,866.88 and Pivot S1 at 30,787.17. Bias reads constructive above 30,866.88, with an expected Globex band of roughly 30,900 to 31,200. A weekend gap can open outside it.
Europe follows. Final services purchasing managers' surveys for the euro area and the United Kingdom are listed between 3:50 AM ET and 4:30 AM ET, and euro area producer prices at 5:00 AM ET, all on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Friday's European hours lifted the contract to 31,035.50 by the 5:30 AM ET bar. Bias reads neutral to higher, with an expected band of roughly 30,950 to 31,250.
Then the survey. The services survey from the purchasing managers' institute is listed at 10:00 AM ET, forecast 55.2 against 55.4, with its employment component forecast at 49 against 47.8, all on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test. Friday's high came in the 10:00 AM ET bar and was followed by a 294.50 point pullback to the 11:00 AM ET bar low, so the morning carries two-way risk around the 31,282.50 high. The morning band runs roughly 30,900 to 31,350.
The afternoon closes the day. Friday's afternoon held a 30,994.75 to 31,130.25 band, and Monday's afternoon band runs roughly 30,950 to 31,300 into the 4:00 PM ET settlement. The calendar lists the trade balance at 8:30 AM ET on October 6, 2026, and the minutes of the September policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday. For Monday the review singles out one first-order event: the 10:00 AM ET services survey, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, read through the ten-year yield.
Three scenarios frame the day. Across the full session the low-range case runs 30,900 to 31,250, the mid-range and most likely case 30,780 to 31,340 and the high-range case 30,590 to 31,530. All three nest. In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the reopened contract above the 30,866.88 one-deviation support and the 31,034.83 Pivot Point through the Asian session, with a retest of the 31,282.50 high and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42 through the United States morning. The reading rests on four grounds. Four higher settles in a row. A settle above every settlement average. A composite read of 88 percent buy with direction strongest. And the cash index at what provider commentary called a record high. In the same judgment the services survey decides whether yields extend Friday's five basis point rise, the main channel that could cap the advance. A weekend shock that gaps the contract beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 would invalidate this reading.
Friday's high stopped 26.92 points short of Pivot R1, and two days of headlines stand between the settle and the next print.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level map, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Cash-index levels at the measured 253.82 point basis: the 31,000 key strike translates to 31,253.82 in futures, the 30,990 combination level to 31,243.82, the 30,500 key strike to 30,753.82, the 30,000 gamma concentration to 30,253.82 and the 29,969 modeled gamma flip to 30,222.82. No other cash level is translated.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
3.1 Resistance, level by level
The first overhead references are the 31,094.00 post-settlement high in the 4:00 PM ET bar and the 31,130.25 afternoon high in the 12:00 PM ET bar, followed by the 3-10 day crossover stall at 31,189.04 and the published target price at 31,216.61. The NDX 30,990 combination level converts to 31,243.82 at the measured basis, one standard deviation resistance sits at 31,256.62, and the NDX 31,000 key strike converts to 31,253.82. Friday's 31,282.50 high in the 10:00 AM ET bar and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42 sit 26.92 points apart. Two standard deviations resistance at 31,337.34, the 52-week high on the December contract at 31,336 and three standard deviations resistance at 31,399.28 follow, with Pivot R2 at 31,557.08 and the 14-day relative-strength 70 percent line at 31,571.18 the extended references.
3.2 Support, level by level
The Pivot Point at 31,034.83 and the 9-day crossover stall at 31,028.50 sit between 26.92 and 33.25 points beneath the settle, with the 30,988.00 morning pullback low in the 11:00 AM ET bar beneath them. One standard deviation support at 30,866.88 and the stochastic 80 percent threshold at 30,836.60 come next. Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and two standard deviations support at 30,786.16 sit a point apart, with the 9-day average crossing at 30,765.16, Friday's 30,760.25 low in the 6:00 PM ET Thursday bar and the NDX 30,500 key strike conversion at 30,753.82 directly beneath. Three standard deviations support at 30,724.22, Pivot S2 at 30,512.58 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,430.83 are the deeper references, with Pivot S3 at 30,264.92 and the NDX 30,000 largest gamma concentration conversion at 30,253.82 beyond.
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 31,061.75 on Friday, up 301.25 points or 0.98 percent from Thursday's 30,760.50 settle, after trading between 31,282.50 and 30,760.25, a 522.25 point daily range. The settle finished at 57.7 percent of the range, and the 522.25 point range was 1.09 times the published 14-day average daily range of 479.66 points. It was a fourth consecutive higher settle, the largest one-day gain since the 867.50 point advance of 09/21 and the highest settle since the 31,167.00 settle of 06/15, and the 31,282.50 high was the highest print since the 31,293.50 high of 06/22. Across the week the contract gained 172.50 points or 0.56 percent from the 30,889.25 settle of 09/25.
The preserved 30-minute series fixes the order. The 30,760.25 session low printed in the first bar after the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, the contract rose overnight to 31,035.50 in the 5:30 AM ET bar, and the 8:30 AM ET bar, which coincided with the employment report released at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, carried it from 30,989.75 to 31,179.00. The 31,282.50 high printed in the 10:00 AM ET bar, the 11:00 AM ET bar fell back to 30,988.00, and the contract held between 30,994.75 and 31,130.25 through the afternoon into the 4:00 PM ET settlement, 220.75 points beneath the high.
The report was soft: payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and average hourly earnings 0.1 percent against 0.3 percent, per the news-feed calendar, and provider commentary said it bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve will not be forced to raise rates this month. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 30,807.93, up 1.00 percent, which provider commentary described as a new record high, led by a rally in chipmakers; the semiconductor index rose 2.40 percent. The ten-year yield index still closed five basis points higher at 5.28 percent, and the volatility index fell 1.08 points to 15.31.
The Primary Setup below is a long from the 30,900 to 30,940 band, between one standard deviation support at 30,866.88 and the 31,034.83 Pivot Point, stopped at 30,740 beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and the Friday low, with objectives at 31,100, 31,280 and an extended 31,460. Two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the 6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen.
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 30,771.25 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a daily high of 31,282.50 and a daily low of 30,760.25, and settled at 31,061.75 at 4:00 PM ET. The preserved 30-minute provider series, 46 bars from the reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar, places the low in the 6:00 PM ET Thursday bar and the high in the 10:00 AM ET Friday bar.
The Asian hours were firm. The contract reached 30,920.00 in the 8:00 PM ET bar, dipped to 30,791.50 in the 9:30 PM ET bar, and reached 30,935.75 in the 1:00 AM ET bar. The European morning carried it higher: the 3:30 AM ET bar reached 30,990.00 and the 5:30 AM ET bar 31,035.50, before the 7:30 AM ET bar eased to 30,913.25. The 8:00 AM ET bar closed at 30,990.00.
The 8:30 AM ET bar traded between 30,986.00 and 31,179.00 and closed at 31,169.00, and the 9:00 AM ET bar reached 31,222.25. After the 9:30 AM ET cash open the 10:00 AM ET bar printed the 31,282.50 high and closed at 31,265.50. The 10:30 AM ET bar eased to 31,155.75 and the 11:00 AM ET bar fell to 30,988.00 before closing at 31,063.25. From the 11:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 30,994.75 and 31,130.25, and the 3:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,070.00. The settlement at 4:00 PM ET was 31,061.75, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,049.00 after the settle. Globex does not reopen until 6:00 PM ET Sunday.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder and were not read independently from a bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 31,831.67 minus the third support point at 30,264.92, divided by three, returns 522.25, and the second resistance point at 31,557.08 minus the second support point at 30,512.58, divided by two, returns the same 522.25. Three times the Pivot Point of 31,034.83 less the 31,061.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 62,042.74, one hundredth from the 62,042.75 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 31,282.50 and 30,760.25 reproduces all seven published rungs. Because no Globex session has reopened, the provider's overview page still shows the completed Friday session with a day high of 31,282.50, a day low of 30,760.25 and an open of 30,771.25, and the chart's completed Friday daily bar and the provider's settlement row carry the same four figures.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed a higher high and a higher low against Thursday: the 31,282.50 high sits 131.00 points above Thursday's 31,151.50, and the 30,760.25 low sits 231.00 points above Thursday's 30,529.25. The low sits a quarter point beneath Thursday's 30,760.50 settle. The sequence of settlements this week ran 30,566.25, 30,613.25, 30,698.75, 30,760.50 and 31,061.75.
The prior week, September 21 through September 25, spanned 31,094.75 to 29,904.00, and Friday's high traded 187.75 points above that prior-week high. The 52-week high on the December contract, 31,336, sits 274.25 points above the settle and 53.50 points above Friday's high. No prior-quarter high or low was captured.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The daily settlement sequence from 09/18 reads 29,917.25, 30,784.75, 31,028.50, 30,764.75, 30,766.75, 30,889.25, 30,566.25, 30,613.25, 30,698.75, 30,760.50 and 31,061.75. Friday's settle sits 33.25 points above the 09/22 settle of 31,028.50, so the contract has now cleared the settlement highs of the late-September consolidation. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 457.50, 320.50, 564.00, 353.50, 393.75, 622.25 and 522.25.
The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,430.83 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,167.75. No four-hour series was captured; the 30-minute series in section 2.1 is the only intraday evidence used.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions through Friday. The 5-day average stands at 30,740.10, the 9-day at 30,794.42, the 20-day at 30,204.70, the 50-day at 29,811.22, the 100-day at 29,970.59 and the 200-day at 28,074.26.
The 31,061.75 settle sits 321.65 points above the 5-day average, 267.33 above the 9-day, 857.05 above the 20-day and 1,250.53 above the 50-day, so the contract is above every average in the stack. The 5-day average rose 34.50 points from Thursday's 30,705.60, because the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 left the window and was replaced by 31,061.75. The 9-day average rose 30.78 from 30,763.64 as the 09/21 settle of 30,784.75 left its window, and the 20-day rose 62.15 from 30,142.55 as the 09/03 settle of 29,818.75 left.
The 100-day average sits 159.37 points above the 50-day. Arithmetically, the 100-day average is the mean of the latest 50 settlements and the 50 before them, so the older 50 settlements averaged 30,129.96, higher than the latest 50; that is why the longer average sits above the shorter one even with the contract above both. The projection grid gives 30,765.16 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Monday.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session. Because no Globex session reopens until Sunday, the page was read with the Friday settle as its most recent value. Relative strength reads 69.25 on the 9-day, 64.54 on the 14-day and 60.91 on the 20-day.
The 14-day stochastic sits near the top of its range: the 14-day raw stochastic reads 90.10 percent, with the 14-day %K at 84.02 percent and %D at 80.18 percent. The directional system reads positive direction above negative direction. On the 9-day the directional index reads 25.73 with positive direction at 28.48 and negative direction at 13.14; on the 14-day it reads 17.39 with positive direction at 26.82 over negative at 15.53. Historic volatility reads 10.03 percent on the 9-day and 15.33 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 88 percent buy, up from 80 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as average and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 88 percent buy a week ago and 8 percent sell a month ago. The short-horizon and medium-horizon groups average 100 percent buy and the long-horizon group 33 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 470.64 points and the 14-day average daily range at 479.66 points; the 9-day figures are 472.38 and 453.47, and the 20-day figures 480.87 and 450.79. Friday's 522.25 point range was 1.09 times the 14-day average daily range.
A projection of one 14-day average true range of 470.64 points from the 31,061.75 settle frames Monday between 30,591.11 and 31,532.39. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 30,866.88 to 31,256.62, two spans 30,786.16 to 31,337.34 and three spans 30,724.22 to 31,399.28. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and a weekend gap can open outside them.
4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle
The desk note said the large-capitalisation technology group rose about 2 percent and the QQQ fund about 1 percent to a record high, led by two large chip designers, and the desk note said two cybersecurity names also set records. An electric-vehicle maker reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 units against an estimate of 456,896, per the news feed. A large internet-search company raised the price of its budget phone by 100 dollars, per the news feed at 12:07 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday; the desk note lists bank earnings on 10/13 among its key dates, per the desk note and unconfirmed.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index closed at 13,136.67, up 2.40 percent from 12,829.00, per the provider's daily record, and the desk note said the semiconductor fund rose about 2 percent. Provider commentary said Friday's rally in chipmakers pushed the Nasdaq-100 to a new record high. The QQQ fund closed at 749.58, up 1.02 percent, above the 748.64 52-week high shown on the positioning console.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The employment report at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, showed payrolls up 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and 162,000 previously, the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent against 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings up 0.1 percent on the month against 0.3 percent, all per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said August payrolls were revised to 133,000 from 162,000, and the desk note said the priced chance of an October rate increase fell below 25 percent. Factory orders at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, rose 0.1 percent against a 0.2 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar.
Duration did not rally with the equity index. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.28 percent, up five basis points, and provider commentary said Treasury yields erased an early decline and that a regional Federal Reserve president said at least another 50 basis points of increases may be needed. Another regional president said at 3:06 PM ET that inflation is going the wrong way. No inflation-protected real yield was captured.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
The President said at 3:58 PM ET that Iran is not doing well and at 4:00 PM ET that a diesel export ban will not be imposed. Provider commentary on crude cited press reports that Saudi Arabia plans an offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen and a coordinated release of strategic reserves. Crude fell 1.90 percent, which provider commentary said helped equities. The weekend leaves two days of headline exposure before the Sunday reopen.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,722.72, up 0.73 percent. The volatility index closed at 15.31, down 1.08 points, and its own volatility gauge at 87.02. The dollar index slipped 0.17 percent to 101.93, gold's December contract fell 0.95 percent to 4,162.3 and November WTI fell 1.90 percent to 91.11. The desk note said S&P 500 fixed-strike implied volatilities fell 1 to 3 points across strikes after the employment report.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The desk note said real-time hedging flow on the Nasdaq registered minus 3 billion dollars of delta on the day, dominated by same-day options, against plus 4 billion dollars on the S&P 500. The weekly positioning report covering September 29 was carried on the news feed at 3:41 PM ET, but its Nasdaq contract figures were not captured. The provider's overview shows open interest at 272,272, which is Thursday's figure; Friday's had not been reported at the time of capture.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
The desk note read for this section is the 5:12 PM ET edition for Friday, read at 6:17 PM ET. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes, not Friday's: NDX 30,501 equals Thursday's 30,501.56 cash close and QQQ 742 equals Thursday's 742.03, so every level below is read against Friday's 30,807.93 cash close and 749.58 fund close and not against the reference column.
On the Nasdaq-100 index the largest gamma concentration sits at NDX 30,000, 807.93 points beneath the cash close, and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,969 and the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,470 both sit beneath it. The primary put side support base is NDX 28,000. The call-side ceiling field reads NDX 29,475, beneath both the close and the modeled gamma-flip level, the same inverted reading recorded in earlier editions, so it is excluded from the level structure. The note lists NDX 30,000, 29,475, 31,000 and 30,500 as key strikes and NDX 31,234, 30,837, 30,990 and 31,020 as combination levels. Gamma tilt on the index reads 1.558 with a gamma notional of 10.452 million dollars, close to flat, and the 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.048.
On the QQQ proxy the largest gamma concentration and the modeled gamma-flip level both sit at 740 and the modeled volatility threshold at 742, with the primary call side ceiling at 760 and the primary put side support base at 730. The fund closed at 749.58, above all three of the lower references and 10.42 beneath the 760 ceiling. Gamma tilt reads 0.909 and the gamma notional minus 210.636 million dollars, so the proxy's dealers carry a net short gamma position, and the 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.032. Put volume of 1.878 million contracts exceeded call volume of 1.359 million. The QQQ console dated 2026-10-02 attributes 26.66 percent of the fund's gamma and 5.05 percent of its delta to the nearest expiration; its high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded.
At the measured closing basis of 253.82 points, the December settlement at 4:00 PM ET less the cash close at 4:00 PM ET, NDX 31,000 corresponds to 31,253.82 on the December contract, NDX 30,500 to 30,753.82, NDX 30,000 to 30,253.82 and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,969 to 30,222.82. These are conversions made by this review; the source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled thresholds are not listed strikes. The review uses the QQQ fund as the positioning proxy for the Nasdaq-100 contract, a choice made for the dataset available, and it remains secondary to technical structure and to the large-cap and semiconductor drivers in section 4. In this review's interpretation the proxy's net short gamma above its 742 threshold, with a quarter of its gamma in the nearest expiration, leaves room for larger moves on Monday in either direction.
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex and Asia)
The contract reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday after two days of headline exposure. Japanese services purchasing managers' data are listed at 8:30 PM ET Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gap references above the settle are the 31,130.25 afternoon high, 31,256.62 and the 31,282.50 Friday high; beneath it, the 31,034.83 Pivot Point, 30,866.88 and the 30,787.17 Pivot S1. Bias constructive above 30,866.88, expected Globex band roughly 30,900 to 31,200.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
Final services purchasing managers' surveys for the euro area and the United Kingdom are listed between 3:50 AM ET and 4:30 AM ET and euro area producer prices at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Friday's European hours lifted the contract to 31,035.50 by the 5:30 AM ET bar. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 30,950 to 31,250.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, RTH Open)
The services survey from the purchasing managers' institute is listed at 10:00 AM ET, forecast 55.2 against 55.4, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test. Friday's high came in the 10:00 AM ET bar and was followed by a 294.50 point pullback to the 11:00 AM ET bar low, so the morning carries two-way risk around the 31,282.50 high. Expected band roughly 30,900 to 31,350.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
The equity index contracts settle at 4:00 PM ET. Friday's afternoon held a 30,994.75 to 31,130.25 band. Expected band roughly 30,950 to 31,300.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The trade balance is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on October 6, 2026, and the minutes of the September policy meeting for 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, both of which the calendar lists.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 30,900 to 31,250; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 30,780 to 31,340; High-range scenario: 30,590 to 31,530.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the reopened contract above the 30,866.88 one-deviation support and the 31,034.83 Pivot Point through the Asian session, with a retest of the 31,282.50 high and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42 through the United States morning. That reading rests on a fourth consecutive higher settle, a settle above every settlement average, a composite read of 88 percent buy with direction strongest, and the cash index at what provider commentary called a record high. The 10:00 AM ET services survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, decides whether yields extend Friday's five basis point rise, which is the main channel that could cap the advance. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a weekend shock that gaps the contract beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
The Monday session reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday. The President is listed to speak at 7:00 PM ET Friday, after this review was written, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and Japanese services purchasing managers' data are listed at 8:30 PM ET Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
The European morning lists final services purchasing managers' surveys between 3:50 AM ET and 4:30 AM ET and euro area producer prices at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The United States morning carries the cash open at 9:30 AM ET and the services survey from the purchasing managers' institute at 10:00 AM ET, forecast 55.2 against 55.4, with its employment component forecast at 49 against 47.8, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday.
In this review's judgment the single first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 contract on Monday is the 10:00 AM ET services survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, through the ten-year yield. The trade balance follows at 8:30 AM ET on October 6, 2026, and the policy meeting minutes at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, both of which the calendar lists.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Friday produced a fourth consecutive higher settle, the highest since 06/15, above every settlement average, with the composite read at 88 percent buy and direction strongest; a pullback toward one standard deviation support offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and the 30,760.25 Friday low. The 14-day stochastic sits near the top of its range and yields rose on the day, so the setup is an analyst judgment that momentum outweighs the stretched oscillators.
Entry Zone: 30,900 to 30,940
Stop Loss: 30,740 (beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 and the 30,760.25 Friday low)
Target 1 (T1): 31,100 (38.25 above the 31,061.75 Friday settle)
Target 2 (T2): 31,280 (2.50 beneath the 31,282.50 Friday high and 29.42 beneath Pivot R1 at 31,309.42)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 31,460 (124.00 above the 31,336 52-week high on the December contract)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 30,787.17 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath 30,800 and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 30,800.
Macro override: A weekend geopolitical shock, a jump in yields after the services survey or a reversal in the semiconductor group would remove the momentum case. In that scenario the long is wrong immediately, and the 30,724.22 to 30,512.58 band becomes the reference within one 14-day average true range of 470.64 points.
Alternate setup: the session review states none.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, NQZ26, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 2, 2026 for the Monday, October 5 session. The contract was verified before any level was used: the daily chart title read 31,061.75 with a stated change of plus 301.25, which returns 30,760.50, equal to the provider's published previous close of 30,760.50, and the chart's completed Friday bar equals the provider's settlement row, so chart and provider are on the same December contract. No Globex session had reopened at the time of reading, so the day high, day low and open on the provider's overview belong to the completed Friday session. Friday's extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs, verified against all seven rungs and reproduced by the chart's daily bar. Statements about the order of prices within Friday's session rest on the preserved 30-minute provider series, which also orders the prints used to grade the prior card.
The settlement averages were computed from the provider's 260-row daily settlement series and are shown to two decimals; that series also supplies the seven closes charted above. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-02 row reads preliminary volume of 573,483 contracts with open interest not yet published, and the 2026-10-01 row now reads volume of 795,240 and open interest of 272,272, where Friday's outlook carried a preliminary 787,504 and no open interest. The open interest of 272,272 that the review cites from the provider's overview is that 10/01 figure. The oscillator readings are cited as published, with the Friday settle as the latest value. The desk note is the 5:12 PM ET edition for Friday, read at 6:17 PM ET, and the fund console is dated 2026-10-02; the desk note's reference prices are Thursday's closes and are used as such. Cash-denominated levels are translated with the measured 253.82 point basis, the 4:00 PM ET settlement against the 4:00 PM ET cash close from the same provider. The inverted cash-index call-side field and the console's volatility-point fields are excluded from the level structure. The volatility-index percentage is computed from the provider's Friday and Thursday closes. The 52-week high cited is 31,336 on the December contract. Scenario ranges, session bands and the path weighting are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar, the desk note or press reports and were not matched on the calendar used for confirmed times, and every catalyst whose time had passed by the 6:16 PM ET start of collection is recorded as completed.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here and the broad-index outlook for the same date is here. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
