On Friday December crude settled at 103.27, up 3.80 or 3.82 percent, after a 5.08 point session between 98.84 and 103.92. The settle finished at 87.2 percent of that range. Both ends rose. The 103.92 high cleared Thursday's 100.17 by 3.75, and the 98.84 low sat 1.12 above Thursday's 97.72. It was the largest one-day gain since the 4.61 point rise of 09/10. The settle and the high both top every settle and every high in the provider's record, which runs back to 10/13/25.
Our Friday card never came into play. Its long band, 98.10 to 98.40, sat beneath the whole day, and the 98.84 low stopped 44 cents above its top. The high ran 3.72 past the extended 100.20 target without an entry from the card. No intraday series was preserved, so the order of the day's prints cannot be shown. Here that order does not change the grade.
Brent rose less. Its December contract settled at 116.72, up 3.55 or 3.14 percent, per the news feed at 2:47 PM ET and the provider's daily record. Its premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.45 from 13.70. December now sits 2.33 above January's 100.94, against 1.95 on Thursday, a steeper backwardation at the front of the curve.
Gulf headlines filled the day. At 11:06 AM ET the news feed carried a maritime security report of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. At 3:32 PM ET it carried an Iranian Revolutionary Guards statement, via state media, that two tankers struck naval mines on an unauthorised route south of the Strait. At 3:36 PM ET it carried the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran. These items coincided with the session and its aftermath; no intraday series was preserved, so no move is attributed to any one of them.
December crude settled at 103.27, up 3.80. That is 87.2 percent of a 98.84 to 103.92 range, with a higher high and a higher low. It sits above all six settlement averages, 4.02 above the 5-day at 99.25. Resistance starts at Friday's 103.92 high, also the 52-week high, then the 104.56 target price and Pivot R1 at 105.18, with one standard deviation resistance at 105.68. Support starts at the 102.01 Pivot Point, then the 101.93 relative strength projection, one standard deviation support at 100.86, the 100.34 stochastic projection and Pivot S1 at 100.10. The setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 101.60 to 101.90, stop 100.75, targets 102.75, 103.75 and an extended 104.75. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.37 under it, and the 102.75 first target sits 52 cents beneath the settle too. A weekend separates Friday's settle from the 6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen.
Friday's 3.80 rally stayed 44 cents above the band
First, the grading. In Friday's outlook we set a long on the December contract from 98.10 to 98.40, stop 97.60, with targets at 98.90, 99.55 and an extended 100.20. A settle beneath Thursday's 97.72 low would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 98.10 would remove the edge. The card is graded on December's Friday bar.
Then December traded. Its bar, from the provider's settlement row, opened at 99.10 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 70 cents above the band's top. It marked a high of 103.92 and a low of 98.84, and settled at 103.27. The low stopped 44 cents above 98.40. The band was never reached. Nor was the stop. The low sat 1.24 above 97.60 and 1.12 above Thursday's 97.72 low.
So the card's entry condition was not met on the daily bar. The 98.90 first target lies inside the range, 6 cents above the low. The high also cleared 99.55 and the extended 100.20, finishing 3.72 above 100.20. With the band untouched, those prints came without an entry from the card. The settle finished 3.07 above 100.20 and 4.87 above the band's top. No invalidation settle printed. The acceptance condition could not print either. A 30-minute close beneath 98.10 needs a print beneath 98.10, and the low held at 98.84. No intraday series was preserved for Friday, so the daily bar cannot show whether the high or the low came first. No fill and no result is asserted.
Our ranges were too low. Every scenario broke at the top. The low-range case of 98.10 to 100.40 gave way by 3.52, the most likely case of 97.70 to 100.80 by 3.12 and the high-range case of 96.60 to 101.60 by 2.32. Their bottoms held by 74 cents, 1.14 and 2.24. The deviation bands broke too. One deviation, 98.54 to 100.40, gave way by 3.52. Two deviations, 98.16 to 100.78, gave way by 3.14, and three deviations, 97.86 to 101.08, by 2.84. Their bottoms held by 30 cents, 68 cents and 98 cents. One average true range around Thursday's settle, 95.84 to 103.10, broke at the top by 82 cents. The settle finished 17 cents above that edge. The session bands for Globex, London, the morning and the afternoon need an intraday series, so they are not graded.
The weighted path expected a hold between Pivot S2 at 96.67 and Pivot R2 at 101.57. The high broke it by 2.35. The settle finished 1.70 above that pivot. The dip toward the band did not arrive, since the low stopped 44 cents above it. The named alternative, a move beneath Thursday's 97.72 low toward Pivot S2 at 96.67, did not happen. The card's macro override named a confirmed de-escalation in the Gulf or a material supply release announced under the Defense Production Act. The review records no confirmed de-escalation. At 9:55 AM ET to 9:56 AM ET the news feed carried the Department of Energy's authorization of an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the strategic reserve. The review does not link that exchange to the act. At 10:56 AM ET to 10:58 AM ET the feed carried the President saying the US could end the Iran war very quickly. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review.
The December band at 101.60 to 101.90, beneath the Pivot Point
The map moved up 3.50, the gap between the two midpoints. Every price here is the December contract. The new band, 101.60 to 101.90, sits just beneath the 101.93 relative strength projection and the 102.01 Pivot Point. Its top sits 3 cents under the projection and 11 cents under the pivot. One standard deviation support at 100.86 sits 74 cents beneath the bottom. The settle sits 1.37 above the band's top and 1.67 above its bottom. The stop at 100.75 sits 11 cents beneath that deviation support. It sits 65 cents above Pivot S1 at 100.10.
No Globex session opens on a Friday evening. So the provider's overview showed Friday's own open, high and low, 99.10, 103.92 and 98.84, and they match the settlement row. Electronic trade ran after the settle until the 5:00 PM ET halt. The chart's last 30-minute bar ran 103.19 to 103.47 and closed at 103.44, 17 cents above the settle. Those are post-settlement quotes. They are not settlements and do not form a preserved intraday series.
Friday was wide and firm. Its range was the widest since the 6.12 of 10/20. The 103.92 high sits 3.75 above Thursday's 100.17 and the 98.84 low 1.12 above Thursday's 97.72. The settle above the 99.10 open leaves a body of 4.17. The upper shadow runs 65 cents above the settle and the lower shadow 26 cents beneath the open. Over ten sessions the settlements read 92.86, 93.17, 93.90, 96.50, 99.02, 98.54, 97.82, 97.15 and 99.47 before Friday's 103.27. That is a second higher settle in a row. Highs over six sessions read 99.34, 99.71, 101.37, 100.40, 100.17 and 103.92. Lows read 95.29, 96.72, 95.25, 96.26, 97.72 and 98.84. Friday's 103.92 is now the one-month, 13-week and 52-week high. The one-month low is 86.00, the 13-week low 71.00 and the 52-week low 55.63. Over the week the contract gained 4.25, or 4.29 percent, from the 99.02 settle of 10/16. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the quarterly reference.
Resistance starts 65 cents up, at Friday's high. The published target price at 104.56 follows, then Pivot R1 at 105.18 and one standard deviation resistance at 105.68. Two standard deviations resistance at 106.67 and the 107.00 top of one average true range come next. Pivot R2 at 107.09, the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 107.29 and three standard deviations resistance at 107.44 sit within 35 cents of each other. The 14-day relative strength projection at 80 percent, 108.84, and Pivot R3 at 110.26 are the extended references.
Support starts 1.26 down, at the 102.01 Pivot Point. The 14-day relative strength projection at 70 percent, 101.93, sits 8 cents beneath it. One standard deviation support at 100.86 follows. The 100.34 stochastic projection and Pivot S1 at 100.10 form the next band, with two standard deviations support at 99.87 beneath. Then a tight band. The 99.54 bottom of one average true range, Thursday's 99.47 settle, the 99.25 5-day average, three standard deviations support at 99.10 and Friday's 98.84 low sit within 70 cents. The 98.21 crossing price for the 9-day, the 9-day average at 97.65, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 and Pivot S2 at 96.93 are the extended references; that retracement sits 6.20 beneath the settle. Pivot S3 at 95.02 lies beneath them. Then the long tail. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96, the 18-day crossing at 93.99, the 20-day at 93.13 and the 92.85 retracement from the four-week low lie further down. So do the 91.34 retracement from the 13-week high, the 40-day crossing at 91.25 and the 50-day at 88.92. Five more sit far beneath. They are the 86.00 one-month low, the 100-day at 81.89, the 200-day at 76.53, the 71.00 13-week low and the provider's 55.63 52-week low. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure rests on daily bars only.
Every average sits beneath price. The settle is 4.02 above the 5-day at 99.25, 5.62 above the 9-day at 97.65, 10.14 above the 20-day at 93.13 and 14.35 above the 50-day at 88.92. The gaps to the 100-day at 81.89 and the 200-day at 76.53 are 21.38 and 26.74. The 5-day rose 85 cents from 98.40. The 10/16 settle of 99.02 left the window and 103.27 replaced it. The 20-day rose 73 cents from 92.40 as the 09/25 settle of 88.71 left, and the 50-day rose 51 cents from 88.41. The order holds. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 86.11, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.86 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 71.17. Monday's crossing prices are 98.21 for the 9-day, 93.99 for the 18-day and 91.25 for the 40-day.
Momentum readings run hot. Relative strength reads 80.03 on the 9-day, 74.57 on the 14-day and 70.79 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 95.03 percent on the 9-day and 96.37 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 85.52 percent sits above %D at 81.62 percent, near the top of the range. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 30.88 against 3.04 on the 9-day with the ADX at 53.98, and 28.82 against 5.24 on the 14-day with the ADX at 41.30. Historic volatility reads 23.56 percent and 24.44 percent. The composite multi-indicator read for Monday holds at 100 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session. Its signal strength is described as maximum and its direction as strongest. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 72 percent a month ago. All three horizon groups average 100 percent buy, and the trend indicator reads buy. These are the provider's published readings, read at about 6:21 PM ET on Friday with no Globex session open, so they reflect the Friday settle.
Friday ran wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.73 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.62. Friday's 5.08 was 1.40 times that daily average. The 9-day figures are 3.88 and 3.80 and the 20-day 3.59 and 3.77. One average true range either side of the settle spans 99.54 to 107.00. The deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 100.86 to 105.68, 99.87 to 106.67 and 99.10 to 107.44. They describe settlement dispersion only. A weekend headline gap can open outside any of them. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 4.53, 3.24, 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45 and 5.08.
Hormuz mines, a 13.45 Brent premium and a smaller net long
The Strait set the tone. At 4:23 AM ET the news feed carried an Iranian claim, via state media, that what it called illicit vessel traffic in Hormuz had been stopped. At 11:05 AM ET to 11:06 AM ET it carried maritime security reports of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait near Oman. Then the afternoon. At 3:03 PM ET it carried an Iranian statement that a blockade of its southern ports had cut imports by 25 percent. At 3:32 PM ET it carried a Revolutionary Guards statement that two tankers struck naval mines on an unauthorised route south of the Strait. An undated item reported that Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes.
Washington spoke twice. At 10:56 AM ET to 10:58 AM ET the news feed carried the President saying the US could end the Iran war very quickly and was taking out all the oil it wants through Hormuz. The second remark came after the settle. At 3:36 PM ET to 3:37 PM ET it carried the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran and doubting that Iran will negotiate. In the provider's commentary, citing press reports, the two-day gain was attributed to speculation about renewed US military action against Iran. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. They coincided with the session and its aftermath; no move is attributed to any one of them.
Producers made news too. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting on deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. At 2:59 PM ET the news feed carried a statement by Iraq's prime minister that Iraq aims to raise oil production gradually to 10 million barrels a day by 2032. At 4:08 PM ET it carried a Venezuelan oil ministry statement putting output at 1.2 million barrels a day.
Russia featured as well. At 9:18 AM ET the feed carried a localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire around Oleshky, which a White House statement placed from October 29. At 1:57 PM ET it carried a House bill introduced to block Russian oil imports. At 2:02 PM ET it carried a report that the Iranian and Russian presidents will hold talks in Moscow next week. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than supply changes measured for this review.
Reserves came up twice. At 9:55 AM ET to 9:56 AM ET the news feed carried the Department of Energy's authorization of an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the strategic reserve to address a supply disruption. It also carried a German stockpiling agency tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude from reserves. The captured calendars carry no crude inventory entry for Friday. The weekly rig count carried by the news feed showed 460 oil rigs against 459 the prior week, and a total of 603, unchanged. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. No gasoline, distillate, Cushing or strategic reserve inventory figure was captured, so none is asserted.
Products lagged crude. In the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.787 dollars a gallon against 4.7366 on Thursday, and December gasoline at 3.1284 against 3.0893. The heating oil margin is 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle. Against December WTI it stands at 97.78 dollars a barrel against 99.47 on Thursday. The gasoline margin stands at 28.12 against 30.28. Both narrowed while crude rose more than the products. The news feed's settlement items at 2:31 PM ET carried November diesel at 4.9842 and November gasoline at 3.2116. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
The dollar firmed. The dollar index closed at 101.81 in the provider's daily record, up 0.20 from Thursday's 101.61. The ten-year yield index rose to 4.99 percent from 4.95 percent. The US flash purchasing managers' composite printed 57.6 against a 57.6 forecast and 58.4 previously, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Services printed 57.9 and manufacturing 56.0, also per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 against a 46.3 forecast, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A firmer dollar is a modest headwind for dollar-priced crude; the size of that effect is not measured here.
Equities slipped. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,623.68, down 0.52 percent, with the volatility index at 19.45 against 19.03. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed little changed. Metals split. Gold's December contract settled at 4,007.9, down 1.29 percent, and silver's December contract fell 1.92 percent, while copper's December contract rose 1.71 percent. At 4:48 PM ET the news feed carried a rating agency statement that France's rating remains Aa3.
Money managers had trimmed before the rally. The weekly positioning report dated October 20 puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts, down 8,560 on the week, and short positions at 127,226, down 4,173. That leaves a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions fell 37,716 to 890,913 and commercial short positions fell 46,893 to 1,007,071. The report predates Thursday's and Friday's gains. December open interest stood at 311,983 for Thursday in the provider's record, and Friday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Friday's December volume was 309,751 contracts against 301,805 on Thursday. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Monday
The review's setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 101.60 to 101.90. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, and positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. The composite holds at 100 percent buy, and the December-January spread steepened to 2.33. That is the trend case. The band sits just beneath the 101.93 relative strength projection and the Pivot Point at 102.01. The stop at 100.75 sits beneath one standard deviation support at 100.86 and above Pivot S1 at 100.10. The first target, 102.75, sits above the Pivot Point and beneath Friday's 103.27 settle. The second, 103.75, sits beneath Friday's 103.92 high. The extended 104.75 sits above the 104.56 target price and beneath Pivot R1 at 105.18. Two caveats sit against it. The 9-day relative strength reads 80.03, and two days of weekend headline exposure leave room for a gap in either direction. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that dips are bought while supply headlines persist, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 101.75 midpoint the risk to the stop is 1.00, 26.8 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.73. The targets sit 1.00, 2.00 and 3.00 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.37 and its bottom 1.67 under it. The 102.75 first target also sits beneath the settle, by 52 cents, and 85 cents above the band's top. The 103.75 second target sits 48 cents above the settle and 17 cents beneath Friday's high. The extended 104.75 sits 19 cents above the target price and 43 cents beneath Pivot R1. A weekend gap can open through the stop.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 101.60 to 104.20, the most likely 100.90 to 105.20 and the high-range case 99.50 to 107.00. Then by session. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, after two days of weekend Gulf headline exposure. A gap above Friday's 103.92 high would put Pivot R1 at 105.18 in reach, in the review's reading. A gap beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 would expose two standard deviations support at 99.87 and Thursday's 99.47 settle. The bias is higher above the Pivot Point at 102.01. The review's expected band is roughly 101.60 to 104.60 absent a headline gap. London runs roughly 101.40 to 104.80, neutral to higher. The review names one standard deviation support at 100.86 as the first meaningful support beneath the Pivot Point. The 101.93 projection sits between them, 8 cents under the pivot. Friday's 103.92 high is London's first resistance. The morning band runs roughly 101.20 to 105.20. The target price at 104.56 sits above the settle inside it, and Pivot R1 at 105.18 sits 2 cents inside its top. The afternoon runs roughly 100.90 to 105.70 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. One standard deviation support at 100.86 sits 4 cents beneath its bottom. One standard deviation resistance at 105.68 sits 2 cents inside its top.
Monday's calendar is light. The German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET and the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The news-feed earnings table lists a large US telecom company's results at 7:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no first-order US economic release for Monday morning. The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET after the 5:00 PM ET halt. Japan's services producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists no confirmed entry for Monday, October 26, 2026. For Tuesday, October 27 it lists the start of the FOMC meeting and the advance durable goods report at 8:30 AM ET. On Wednesday, October 28 it lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET and the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 100.10 and Pivot R2 at 107.09, with a dip toward the 101.60 to 101.90 band that holds above one standard deviation support at 100.86 weighted slightly above a direct extension. It names an alternative. A confirmed de-escalation over the weekend, or a supply response the market reads as material, could open Monday beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 and carry the contract toward Thursday's 99.47 settle. The review also flags a pullback. The 9-day relative strength at 80.03 and the 9-day raw stochastic at 95.03 percent describe an extended market, and both product margins narrowed. So a pullback before any extension is a live alternative. In the review's judgment the first-order influence for crude on Monday is the weekend's unscheduled Gulf headlines. No first-order scheduled release sits on the captured calendars for the day.
Friday's rally left the old band 44 cents behind; Monday's band waits 1.37 beneath the settle, just under the Pivot Point.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless November is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 103.27 on Friday, up 3.80 or 3.82 percent from Thursday's settle of 99.47, after trading between 103.92 and 98.84, a 5.08 point daily range. The settle finished at 87.2 percent of the range, and the 5.08 point range was 1.40 times the published 14-day average daily range of 3.62 points. Friday printed a higher high and a higher low against Thursday, the 3.80 point gain was the largest one-day gain since the 4.61 point gain of 09/10, and both the 103.27 settle and the 103.92 high sit above every settle and every high in the preserved record back to 10/13/25. The 103.92 high is also the provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high.
Over the week the contract gained 4.25 points or 4.29 percent from the 99.02 settle of 10/16. Brent's December contract settled at 116.72, up 3.55 or 3.14 percent, per the news feed at 2:47 PM ET and the provider's daily record, so its premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.45 from 13.70 on Thursday. The January WTI contract settled at 100.94 in the provider's daily record, which leaves December 2.33 points above January against 1.95 on Thursday, a steeper backwardation at the front of the curve.
The day's news flow was again dominated by the Gulf and by the prospect of renewed US action against Iran. The news feed carried at 10:56 AM ET the President saying the Iran war could be ended very quickly, at 11:06 AM ET a maritime security report of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, at 3:32 PM ET an Iranian Revolutionary Guards statement, via state media, that two tankers struck naval mines on an unauthorised route south of the Strait, and at 3:36 PM ET the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran. These items coincided with the session and its aftermath; no intraday series was preserved, so no move is attributed to any one of them.
The dollar index closed at 101.81 against 101.61 on Thursday and the ten-year yield index rose to 4.99 percent from 4.95 percent. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.52 percent while the Nasdaq-100 cash index closed little changed. The published 14-day average true range is 3.73 points. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 101.60 to 101.90 band just beneath the Pivot Point at 102.01, stopped at 100.75 beneath one standard deviation support at 100.86, with objectives at 102.75, 103.75 and an extended 104.75. A weekend separates Friday's settle from the Sunday reopen, and two days of Gulf headline exposure make a gap in either direction a live risk.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 99.10 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 37 cents beneath Thursday's settle, marked a daily high of 103.92 and a daily low of 98.84, and settled at 103.27 at 2:30 PM ET. No intraday series was preserved for this session in this review, so this review does not describe the order in which the high and the low printed, and no timed price path is asserted; the daily bar alone fixes the open, the extremes and the settle.
The news feed's settlement item at 2:31 PM ET carried the December settle at 103.27, up 3.80 or 3.82 percent. This review records only that the 103.92 high and the 98.84 low both belong to Friday's completed session and that the settle sits 4.43 points above the low and 65 cents beneath the high.
No Globex session is open on a Friday evening, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 99.10, 103.92 and 98.84, belong to Friday's completed session and match the settlement row. The chart's 30-minute bars after the settle show electronic trade until the 5:00 PM ET halt, with a last 30-minute bar of 103.19 to 103.47 closing at 103.44; these are post-settlement quotes, not settlements, and they do not form a preserved intraday series.
Friday's completed-session extremes are also the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 110.26 minus Pivot S3 at 95.02, divided by three, returns 5.08, and Pivot R2 at 107.09 minus Pivot S2 at 96.93, divided by two, returns the same 5.08. Three times the Pivot Point of 102.01 less the 103.27 settle gives a high plus low sum of 202.76, which the pair of 103.92 and 98.84 reproduces exactly, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar on the continuous symbol carry the same 99.10 open, 103.92 high, 98.84 low and 103.27 settle, and the solved 103.92 high equals the separately published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday's 103.92 high sits 3.75 points above Thursday's 100.17, and the 98.84 low sits 1.12 points above Thursday's 97.72, so the session printed a higher high and a higher low. The settle above the 99.10 open leaves a body of 4.17 points, an upper shadow of 65 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 26 cents beneath the open.
Settlements over the last ten sessions ran 92.86, 93.17, 93.90, 96.50, 99.02, 98.54, 97.82, 97.15 and 99.47 before Friday's 103.27, so Friday made a second consecutive higher settle and printed the highest settle in the preserved record, which begins on 10/13/25. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 99.34, 99.71, 101.37, 100.40, 100.17 and 103.92, and the sequence of session lows reads 95.29, 96.72, 95.25, 96.26, 97.72 and 98.84.
The provider's published 52-week low of 55.63 and 13-week low of 71.00 sit far beneath, and the one-month low of 86.00 frames the lower side of the recent month. The forward curve sits in backwardation at the front: December settled 2.33 points above January's 100.94, against 1.95 points on Thursday. No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 4.53, 3.24, 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45 and 5.08, so Friday's range was the widest since the 6.12 range of 10/20. The settlement changes over the same ten sessions read plus 1.85, plus 0.31, plus 0.73, plus 2.60, plus 2.52, minus 0.48, minus 0.72, minus 0.67, plus 2.32 and plus 3.80.
The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07, 6.20 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.85 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 91.34. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions through Friday; no partial row was present because no Globex session is open on a Friday evening. The 5-day average stands at 99.25, the 9-day at 97.65, the 20-day at 93.13, the 50-day at 88.92, the 100-day at 81.89 and the 200-day at 76.53.
The 103.27 settle sits 4.02 points above the 5-day average, 5.62 points above the 9-day, 10.14 points above the 20-day and 14.35 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 85 cents from Thursday's 98.40, because the 10/16 settle of 99.02 left the window and was replaced by 103.27. The 20-day rose 73 cents from 92.40, because the 09/25 settle of 88.71 left that window, and the 50-day rose 51 cents from 88.41.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 93.13 against 88.92 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 86.11. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.86, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 71.17. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Monday: 98.21 for the 9-day, 93.99 for the 18-day and 91.25 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:21 PM ET on Friday with no Globex session open, so they reflect the Friday settle; they are the provider's published readings, not this review's computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 80.03, the 14-day relative strength 74.57 and the 20-day relative strength 70.79.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 95.03 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 96.37 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 85.52 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 81.62 percent, so %K sits above %D near the top of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 53.98 with the 9-day +DI at 30.88 and the 9-day -DI at 3.04; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 41.30 with the 14-day +DI at 28.82 and the 14-day -DI at 5.24, so positive direction leads on both and the 9-day ADX reads above the 14-day. The 9-day historic volatility reads 23.56 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 24.44 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Monday session is 100 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session's snapshot of 100 percent buy, with signal strength described as maximum and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 100 percent buy a week ago and 72 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon, medium-horizon and long-horizon groups each average 100 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.73 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.62 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.88 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.80, and the 20-day average true range is 3.59 with a 20-day average daily range of 3.77. Friday's 5.08 point range was 1.40 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.73 points from the 103.27 settle frames Monday between 99.54 and 107.00. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 100.86 to 105.68, two spans 99.87 to 106.67 and three spans 99.10 to 107.44. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and a weekend headline gap can open outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 103.27 settle, the first overhead reference is Friday's 103.92 high, which is also the published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, followed by the published target price at 104.56 and Pivot R1 at 105.18. One standard deviation resistance at 105.68 precedes two standard deviations resistance at 106.67 and Pivot R2 at 107.09, with the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 107.29 and three standard deviations resistance at 107.44 above. The 14-day relative strength projection at 80 percent, 108.84, and Pivot R3 at 110.26 are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 102.01, then the 14-day relative strength projection at 70 percent, 101.93, and one standard deviation support at 100.86. The 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 100.34 and Pivot S1 at 100.10 form the next band, with two standard deviations support at 99.87 and Thursday's 99.47 settle beneath. Three standard deviations support at 99.10 and Friday's 98.84 low form the deeper band, with the 9-day average crossing price at 98.21, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 and Pivot S2 at 96.93 the extended references, and Pivot S3 at 95.02 beneath.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting on deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. The news feed carried at 2:59 PM ET a statement by Iraq's prime minister that Iraq aims to raise oil production gradually to 10 million barrels a day by 2032, and at 4:08 PM ET a Venezuelan oil ministry statement putting output at 1.2 million barrels a day.
On the Russian side, the feed carried at 9:18 AM ET a localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire around Oleshky, which a White House statement placed from October 29, at 1:57 PM ET a House bill introduced to block Russian oil imports, and at 2:02 PM ET a report that the Iranian and Russian presidents will hold talks in Moscow next week. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than supply changes measured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The captured calendars carry no crude inventory entry for Friday. The news feed carried at 9:55 AM ET to 9:56 AM ET the Department of Energy's authorization of an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the strategic reserve to address a supply disruption, and a German stockpiling agency tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude from reserves. The weekly rig count carried by the news feed showed 460 oil rigs against 459 the prior week and a total of 603, unchanged.
The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. No gasoline, distillate, Cushing or strategic reserve inventory figure was captured for this review, so none is asserted.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 4:23 AM ET an Iranian claim, via state media, that what it called illicit vessel traffic in Hormuz had been stopped, at 11:05 AM ET to 11:06 AM ET maritime security reports of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait near Oman, at 3:03 PM ET an Iranian statement that a blockade of its southern ports had cut imports by 25 percent, and at 3:32 PM ET a Revolutionary Guards statement that two tankers struck naval mines on an unauthorised route south of the Strait. An undated item reported that Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes.
On the US side, the feed carried at 10:56 AM ET to 10:58 AM ET the President saying the US could end the Iran war very quickly and was taking out all the oil it wants through Hormuz, and at 3:36 PM ET to 3:37 PM ET the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran and doubting that Iran will negotiate. The provider's commentary, citing press reports, attributed the two-day gain to speculation about renewed US military action against Iran. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
On the December contracts in the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.787 dollars a gallon against 4.7366 on Thursday and December gasoline at 3.1284 against 3.0893. The news feed's settlement items at 2:31 PM ET carried November diesel at 4.9842 and November gasoline at 3.2116.
Against the December WTI settle, the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 97.78 dollars a barrel against 99.47 on Thursday, and the gasoline margin at 28.12 against 30.28. Both product margins narrowed while crude rose more than the products. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 101.81 in the provider's daily record, up 0.20 from Thursday's 101.61, and the ten-year yield index rose to 4.99 percent from 4.95 percent. The US flash purchasing managers' composite printed 57.6 against a 57.6 forecast and 58.4 previously, and the final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 against a 46.3 forecast, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Gold's December contract settled at 4,007.9, down 1.29 percent, silver's December contract fell 1.92 percent, and copper's December contract rose 1.71 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,623.68, down 0.52 percent, with the volatility index at 19.45 against 19.03. A firmer dollar is a modest headwind for dollar-priced crude; the size of that effect is not measured here.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts, down 8,560 on the week, and managed-money short positions at 127,226, down 4,173, for a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions fell 37,716 to 890,913 and commercial short positions fell 46,893 to 1,007,071. The report predates Thursday's and Friday's gains.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 311,983 for Thursday in the provider's record, and Friday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture; Friday's December volume was 309,751 contracts against 301,805 on Thursday. Brent's December premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.45 from 13.70, and the December-January WTI spread widened to 2.33 from 1.95.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, 2026 after two days of weekend Gulf headline exposure that separate Friday's settle from the open. A gap above Friday's 103.92 high would put Pivot R1 at 105.18 in reach, and a gap beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 would expose two standard deviations support at 99.87 and Thursday's 99.47 settle. Bias higher above the Pivot Point at 102.01, expected band roughly 101.60 to 104.60 absent a headline gap.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
The German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET and the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 101.40 to 104.80, with one standard deviation support at 100.86 the first meaningful support beneath the Pivot Point and Friday's 103.92 high the first resistance.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, US Open / Pit Session)
The news-feed earnings table lists a large US telecom company's results at 7:00 AM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the captured calendars carry no first-order US economic release for Monday morning. Expected band roughly 101.20 to 105.20, with the target price at 104.56 and Pivot R1 at 105.18 above and the 101.60 to 101.90 entry band beneath.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Monday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 100.90 to 105.70, with the outer edges at one standard deviation support at 100.86 and one standard deviation resistance at 105.68.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Monday after the 5:00 PM ET halt, and Japan's services producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the next official weekly petroleum status report for 10:30 AM ET on the same day, as the calendar lists it, so the forward window carries the week's first-order events.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 101.60 to 104.20
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 100.90 to 105.20
High-range scenario: 99.50 to 107.00
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 100.10 and Pivot R2 at 107.09, with a dip toward the 101.60 to 101.90 band that holds above one standard deviation support at 100.86 weighted slightly above a direct extension. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on both directional systems, the composite holds at 100 percent buy with direction described as strongest, and the front calendar spread steepened.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a confirmed de-escalation over the weekend, or a supply response the market reads as material, either of which could open Monday beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 and carry the contract toward Thursday's 99.47 settle. The 9-day relative strength at 80.03 and the 9-day raw stochastic at 95.03 percent describe an extended market, and both product margins narrowed, so a pullback before any extension is a live alternative.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The US flash purchasing managers' surveys printed a composite of 57.6, services at 57.9 and manufacturing at 56.0, and the final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settled at 2:30 PM ET, and the news feed carried at 4:48 PM ET a rating agency statement that France's rating remains Aa3.
On Monday, October 26, 2026 the German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET, the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET and a large US telecom company's results at 7:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and Japan's services producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. The calendar lists no confirmed entry for Monday, October 26, 2026.
Later in the week, the FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the advance durable goods report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and the FOMC statement for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both as the calendar lists it, and the seven-country producer meeting is listed for Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence for crude on Monday is the weekend's unscheduled Gulf headlines, with no first-order scheduled release on the captured calendars for the day.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, the composite holds at 100 percent buy, and the December-January spread steepened to 2.33. A dip into the 101.60 to 101.90 band, just beneath the 14-day relative strength projection at 101.93 and the Pivot Point at 102.01, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath one standard deviation support at 100.86. The 9-day relative strength at 80.03 and two days of weekend headline exposure leave room for a gap in either direction, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips are bought while supply headlines persist, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 101.60 to 101.90
Stop Loss: 100.75 (beneath one standard deviation support at 100.86 and above Pivot S1 at 100.10)
Target 1 (T1): 102.75 (above the Pivot Point at 102.01 and beneath Friday's 103.27 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 103.75 (beneath Friday's 103.92 high)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 104.75 (above the published target price at 104.56 and beneath Pivot R1 at 105.18)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 101.60.
Macro override: A confirmed de-escalation in the Gulf over the weekend, or a material supply release, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a gap beneath the 100.75 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Thursday's 99.47 settle becomes the reference, 1.28 points beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 3.73 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Friday's close on October 23, 2026 for the Monday, October 26, 2026 session. December, which the chart's continuous symbol tracks, is the front month. Friday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 110.26 less Pivot S3 at 95.02, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 107.09 less Pivot S2 at 96.93, divided by two, both return 5.08, and three times the 102.01 Pivot Point less the 103.27 settle gives 202.76, which the 103.92 high and 98.84 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Friday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. No intraday series was preserved for Friday, so no timed price path is asserted, and no price move is tied to a headline.
Friday's card was written on the December contract and is graded only on the provider's December settlement row for 10/23 (open 99.10, high 103.92, low 98.84, settle 103.27, volume 309,751). The daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, so the order of events within Friday cannot be shown, and the card's session bands are not graded.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 260-session daily settlement series for December; no partial row was present, since no Globex session opens on a Friday evening. The oscillators are cited as published, read at about 6:21 PM ET. Friday's volume and the open-interest figures equal the provider's dated rows. Thursday's 10/22 row has been revised: December volume now reads 301,805 against the 280,425 cited in Friday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 311,983. Friday's open interest had not been reported. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Friday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,007.9 on Friday, down 1.29 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
