At the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen the December Nasdaq-100 contract opened at 29,116.50, 25.50 points beneath Thursday's settle. The day's high was 29,326.00. It stopped 134.00 points short of the short band we published for Friday and 294.00 points beneath that card's stop. The card never engaged. A lower high and a lower low.
The contract settled at 29,117.75, down 24.25 points, or 0.08 percent, at 38.6 percent of a 339.00 point range. That was the narrowest range since the 314.75 of 10/13 and the lowest settle since the 28,688.50 of 07/31. Over the week the contract lost 273.75 points, or 0.93 percent. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed essentially unchanged at 28,957.53, while the Dow industrials fell 1.23 percent. A weekend now separates the settle from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 29,117.75, down 24.25 points, with a lower high and a lower low on a 339.00 point range, the narrowest since 10/13. Friday's published short band at 29,460 to 29,500 was not reached: the 29,326.00 high stopped 134.00 points beneath it, and the 29,620 stop did not trade. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day settlement averages and above the 200-day. The primary setup for Monday is a short from 29,280 to 29,320, around Pivot R1 at 29,300.17, stop 29,420, targets 29,180, 29,060 and an extended 28,940. The band and the first target sit above the settle; the second and third targets sit beneath it. The captured calendars carry no first-order US release for Monday, and the policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, as the calendar lists it.
Friday's short band at 29,460 to 29,500 was never reached
In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 29,460 to 29,500, stop 29,620. Its targets sat at 29,340, 29,200 and an extended 29,060. Friday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-10-23 settlement row, opened at 29,116.50 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 29,326.00 and a low of 28,987.00, and settled at 29,117.75. The band never traded. The high stopped 134.00 points beneath its 29,460 bottom. The 29,620 stop sat 294.00 points above the high. It did not trade either.
The open sat 343.50 points beneath the band and the settle 342.25 beneath it. The first target, 29,340, sat 14.00 points above the high and did not print. The 29,200 and 29,060 prices do lie inside the day's range, 213.00 and 73.00 points above the low. With no entry printed, they mark nothing for the card. No intraday series was preserved for Friday, so the daily bar cannot show the order in which the high and the low printed. No order is asserted here. No fill and no result are asserted either.
The card's other lines held. Its invalidation needed a settle above two standard deviations resistance at 29,610.40. The settle finished 492.65 points beneath it. Its acceptance test needed two consecutive 30-minute closes above 29,500. Without a 30-minute series the test cannot be read bar by bar. Still, nothing traded above 29,326.00, which sits 174.00 points beneath 29,500.
Its macro override named a broad reversal in technology shares, or a de-escalation in the Gulf that lifts risk appetite. Neither of its references printed. The high stayed 389.67 points beneath three standard deviations resistance at 29,715.67 and 419.83 beneath Pivot R1 at 29,745.83. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed down 1.16 points, and the semiconductor index rose 0.44 percent after Thursday's 6.72 percent fall. The news feed carried reports of tankers struck near the Strait of Hormuz, statements carried by the news feed rather than confirmed events. The review ties the session to no single headline.
Our ranges are scored against the whole day's extremes, which is all the daily bar allows. All three analyst-judgment scenario ranges held. The low-range case of 28,800 to 29,470 contained the low with 187.00 points to spare and the high with 144.00. The most likely case of 28,670 to 29,610 and the high-range case of 28,430 to 29,750 held with more room. The session bands fared the same. The night band of 28,800 to 29,470, London's 28,780 to 29,480, the morning band of 28,670 to 29,610 and the afternoon band of 28,570 to 29,720 each contained the whole day. The bar cannot place the extremes in any one session.
The most probable path, an analyst judgment, kept the contract between Pivot S2 at 28,429.17 and Pivot R1 at 29,745.83. It held. The low stayed 557.83 points above the lower line and the high 419.83 beneath the upper. The weighted case was a rebound toward the band that fails beneath two standard deviations resistance at 29,610.40. The band was not reached, so that case cannot be scored. The alternative, a reversal of Thursday's technology selling toward Thursday's 29,993.25 high, did not print.
A 160.22 point basis, a tight band near 29,483 and a one-month low at 28,987.00
The basis narrowed to 160.22 points, the 29,117.75 settle less the 28,957.53 cash close, from 183.31 on Thursday. The review converts four positioning levels at it. The modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,323 becomes 29,483.22, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,200 becomes 29,360.22, the NDX 29,000 key strike 29,160.22 and the put side support base at NDX 28,000 28,160.22. The conversions are the review's own. The settle sits beneath all of them except the put side equivalent.
Resistance starts 24.25 points up, at Thursday's 29,142.00 settle. The Pivot Point follows at 29,143.58 and the 29,160.22 key-strike equivalent 42.47 points up. Then come Pivot R1 at 29,300.17 and Friday's 29,326.00 high, 25.83 points apart, and the 29,360.22 threshold equivalent. A tight band follows. Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 and the 29,483.22 flip equivalent sit 0.64 points apart. One standard deviation resistance at 29,507.02, the 14-3 day projection at 29,512.90, the 5-day average near 29,533 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 29,549.25 sit within 66.67 points of R2. Pivot R3 at 29,639.17, the one-ATR line at 29,656.57, two standard deviations resistance at 29,668.27 and the 9-day crossing price at 29,672.81 sit within 33.64 points.
Higher still, three standard deviations resistance at 29,791.99 and the 9-day average near 29,797 sit 5.01 points apart. The 100-day near 29,979, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,991.47 and Thursday's 29,993.25 high sit within 14.25 points. The 50-day near 30,121, the 40-day crossing price at 30,204.33, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,301.75, the 18-day crossing price at 30,422.12 and the 20-day near 30,453 form the extended band. The 31,616.50 one-month, 13-week and 52-week high caps the list, 2,498.75 points up.
Support starts 1.25 points down, at Friday's 29,116.50 open. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low follows at 29,061.38, 56.37 points down, with Thursday's 29,033.00 low beneath it. Then comes the crowded zone. Friday's 28,987.00 low, now the one-month low, Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 and the published target price at 28,946.67 sit within 40.33 points. Beneath it, Pivot S2 at 28,804.58 and one standard deviation support at 28,728.48 sit 76.10 points apart. The 07/31 settle of 28,688.50, the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 28,661.32 and Pivot S3 at 28,622.17 follow. Then come the 08/03 low of 28,599.50, the one-ATR line at 28,578.93 and two standard deviations support at 28,567.23. The 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88 and three standard deviations support at 28,443.51 form the deeper band. The 200-day average near 28,379, the 28,160.22 put side equivalent, the 27,482.00 13-week low and the 23,429.00 52-week low lie far below.
Five averages sit overhead. The settle sits about 415 points beneath the 5-day near 29,533, about 679 beneath the 9-day near 29,797, about 861 beneath the 100-day near 29,979, about 1,004 beneath the 50-day near 30,121 and about 1,335 beneath the 20-day near 30,453. It sits about 739 above the 200-day near 28,379. The averages are the review's, computed from the daily settlements and stated to whole points. The 5-day fell about 55 points from Thursday's 29,588 as the 10/16 settle of 29,391.50 left the window. The 20-day fell about 89 from 30,541 as the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 dropped out, and the 50-day about 27 from 30,149. Older settlements sit lower. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged about 29,900, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window about 29,837 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window about 26,778. Monday's crossing prices are 29,672.81 for the 9-day, 30,422.12 for the 18-day and 30,204.33 for the 40-day.
Momentum sits near the bottom. Relative strength reads 30.19 on the 9-day, 35.62 on the 14-day and 39.94 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 6.81 percent on the 9-day and 4.97 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 13.95 percent sits 4.91 points beneath %D at 18.86 percent. Sellers lead on both windows. On the 9-day, negative direction at 33.58 tops positive at 8.72 by 24.86, with the ADX at 40.92; on the 14-day, 30.76 tops 11.76 by 19.00, with the ADX at 25.84. Historic volatility reads 21.58 percent and 19.03 percent. These readings are as published, read at about 6:22 PM ET on Friday with no Globex session open. They reflect the Friday settle.
A composite multi-indicator read published for Monday sits at 56 percent sell, against 40 percent sell in the prior session's snapshot, with strength and direction both described as average. A week ago it read 40 percent sell. A month ago, 88 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium 50 percent sell and the long 33 percent sell, and the trend indicator reads sell.
Almost none of the bar is body. The settle finished 1.25 points above the 29,116.50 open, with an upper shadow of 208.25 points above the settle and a lower shadow of 129.50 points beneath the open. The 14-day average true range stands at 538.82 points and the 14-day average daily range at 552.18; the 9-day figures are 563.99 and 623.64 and the 20-day figures 526.25 and 529.99. One average true range either side of the settle spans 28,578.93 to 29,656.57. The deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 28,728.48 to 29,507.02, 28,567.23 to 29,668.27 and 28,443.51 to 29,791.99. They describe settlement dispersion only. A weekend headline gap can open outside any of them. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 445.00, 314.75, 813.50, 574.25, 956.25, 757.50, 511.75, 385.50, 960.25 and 339.00 points. The session highs since 10/16 read 30,225.00, 29,983.50, 29,903.50, 30,113.00, 29,993.25 and 29,326.00, and the lows 29,268.75, 29,226.00, 29,391.75, 29,727.50, 29,033.00 and 28,987.00. No prior-quarter extremes were captured, so the 13-week extremes stand in.
A flat Nasdaq-100, a 0.44 percent chip rebound and a 1.23 percent Dow drop
The broad market slipped while technology held. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,957.53, down 1.16 points and essentially unchanged, after trading between 29,161.03 and 28,825.72 in the provider's daily record. The semiconductor index rose 0.44 percent, or 47.48 points, to 10,779.46, after Thursday's 6.72 percent decline. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.52 percent, the Dow industrials 1.23 percent and the NYSE composite 0.65 percent. So the Nasdaq-100 outperformed the broad market on Friday after underperforming on Thursday.
The evening positioning note cited a relief bounce in memory shares and outperformance in energy and cybersecurity, while most S&P 500 shares declined. The semiconductor index traded between 10,923.18 and 10,667.92. No single-name semiconductor result was released on Friday on the captured calendars. In the review's account, Thursday's technology selloff on doubts over returns on artificial-intelligence spending eased on Friday.
From 1:11 PM ET to 1:17 PM ET the news feed carried remarks attributed by a press report to the social-media group's chief artificial-intelligence officer. As the press report had it, the group's assistant would compete with Chinese models through subscriptions rather than advertising. Earlier the feed carried items on a leading artificial-intelligence developer's model-training controls and computing capacity talks. The evening positioning note described limited appetite for longer-dated positions ahead of the results due later in the week.
Those results are listed. A search-engine group and a software maker report after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. An online retailer follows after the close on Thursday, October 29, as the calendar lists it. The policy meeting begins on Tuesday, October 27, and its statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, as the calendar lists it. The evening positioning note put the priced probability of an unchanged rate at that meeting at 90 percent.
Yields rose. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent, from 4.95. The thirty-year closed at 5.32 percent, from 5.28. The US flash purchasing managers' composite printed 57.6 against a 57.6 forecast and 58.4 previously, with services at 57.9 and manufacturing at 56.0, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 against a 46.3 forecast, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. At 4:48 PM ET the news feed carried a rating agency statement that France's rating remains Aa3.
The Gulf stayed in the headlines. At 11:06 AM ET the news feed carried a maritime security report of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. At 3:32 PM ET it carried an Iranian Revolutionary Guards statement that two tankers struck naval mines south of the Strait. At 3:36 PM ET the news feed carried the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran. Earlier, at 2:49 AM ET, the feed carried a Chinese pledge of action after US curbs on research ties, and at 9:18 AM ET a localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire around Oleshky. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than confirmed events. No causal link to the index is asserted.
Crude rose. December WTI settled at 103.27, up 3.82 percent, and the dollar index closed at 101.81 against 101.61. December gold settled at 4,007.9, down 1.29 percent. The Nasdaq-100 volatility index eased to 28.30 from 28.72. The S&P 500 volatility index rose to 19.45 from 19.03 and the volatility-of-volatility index to 109.70 from 107.94. The evening positioning note recorded, on its own print, the S&P 500 volatility index reaching 20.66 before closing at 19.44 and the volatility-of-volatility index reaching 118.17 before closing at 109.70. These items coincided with the session, and with no intraday series preserved, no move in the index is attributed to any one of them.
The cash close sits beneath three positioning lines. The evening positioning note used is the 5:09 PM ET edition for Friday, read at 6:17 PM ET. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes: NDX 28,958 equals Thursday's 28,958.69 cash close, and QQQ 704 matches the fund's Thursday close of 704.59. Against Friday's 28,957.53 close, the index sits 242.47 points beneath the 29,200 modeled volatility threshold, 365.47 beneath the 29,323 modeled gamma-flip level and 717.47 beneath the 29,675 call side ceiling. It sits 957.53 above the put side support base at 28,000, which is also the largest gamma concentration. The index model's gamma tilt reads 0.726 and its gamma notional minus 7.166 million dollars, both model outputs. The note lists 28,000, 29,000, 30,000 and 29,675 as key index strikes.
On the QQQ proxy the call side ceiling sits at 760, the modeled gamma-flip level at 730, the modeled volatility threshold at 725, and the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base both at 700. Those are proxy levels. The fund's gamma tilt reads 0.467 and its gamma notional minus 1.302 billion dollars, proxy model outputs. The note's key fund strikes are 700, 690, 710 and 720. The console, read at about 6:23 PM ET with a page date of 2026-10-23, shows call gamma of minus 1.26 billion against put gamma of minus 2.7 billion. One-month implied volatility reads 25.55 percent against realised volatility of 17.84 percent. The implied-volatility rank reads 72.96 percent, the skew rank 34.00 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.42.
In the review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, an index close beneath both the threshold and the flip level, with negative gamma notional on the index and the fund, describes an environment where dealer hedging is more likely to amplify than to dampen moves. That is a damping read. It carries no direction. In the same interpretation, a fund implied volatility well above realised shows the options market pricing more movement than the index has recently delivered. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes, and no directional read is drawn from options volume or modeled gamma.
Activity fell. Volume reached 672,105 contracts against Thursday's 855,326, a figure revised from the 822,661 carried in Friday's outlook. Open interest reads 288,953 on Thursday's 2026-10-22 row, which Friday's outlook listed as not yet reported, up 18,057 from 270,896 on the 2026-10-21 row. Friday's figure is not yet reported. The weekly positioning report dated October 20 puts leveraged-fund longs at 51,749 contracts, up 3,643, and shorts at 50,799, down 8,900. That is a net long of 950 against a net short of 11,593 a week earlier. Asset-manager longs fell 2,619 to 109,985 and shorts fell 5,086 to 32,195. The report predates Thursday's decline.
After the settle, the chart's last 30-minute bar before the 5:00 PM ET halt closed at 29,175.00, a post-settlement quote. It is not a settlement, and no intraday series was preserved behind it.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a short from 29,280 to 29,320. Friday printed a lower high, a lower low and a second consecutive lower settle. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 100-day. Negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the composite moved to 56 percent sell from 40 percent. The band sits around Pivot R1 at 29,300.17 and beneath Friday's 29,326.00 high. Then the stop. At 29,420 it sits 94.00 points above that high and 62.58 beneath Pivot R2 at 29,482.58. It also sits 63.22 beneath the 29,483.22 flip equivalent, and the band top sits 40.22 beneath the 29,360.22 threshold equivalent. All of the band sits above the settle, 162.25 to 202.25 points up. The thesis, an analyst judgment, is that rallies are sold while technology leadership stays under pressure.
The first target sits at 29,180, 36.42 above the Pivot Point and 62.25 above the settle. The second, 29,060, sits 1.38 beneath the 29,061.38 retracement and 57.75 beneath the settle. Then the extended third. At 28,940 it sits 21.17 beneath Pivot S1 at 28,961.17, 6.67 beneath the 28,946.67 target price and 47.00 beneath Friday's low. In the review's reading, the 14-day raw stochastic at 4.97 percent and Friday's narrow 339.00 point range describe an oversold, compressed market. Two days of weekend headline exposure leave room for a gap in either direction. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 29,300 midpoint the risk to the stop is 120 points, 22.3 percent of the 14-day average true range of 538.82. The targets sit 120, 240 and 360 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target, 29,180, sits 100.00 points beneath the band bottom and 62.25 above the settle. The second sits 57.75 beneath the settle. The third sits 177.75 beneath it.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 28,940 to 29,330, the most likely 28,800 to 29,480 and the high-range case 28,580 to 29,660. Then the sessions. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, after two days of weekend headline exposure. A gap above Friday's 29,326.00 high would put Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 in reach. A gap beneath the 28,987.00 low would expose Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 and Pivot S2 at 28,804.58. Absent a gap, the review expects roughly 28,940 to 29,330 through the night session. Its bias is lower beneath Pivot R1. London follows at 28,900 to 29,350, with a bias neutral to lower. There, Pivot S1 is the first meaningful support beneath the 28,987.00 low. Pivot R1 is the first pivot resistance above the Pivot Point, with the 29,160.22 key-strike equivalent between them. The morning band runs 28,800 to 29,480. Pivot S2 sits 4.58 points inside its bottom and Pivot R2 2.58 above its top. The afternoon band runs 28,730 to 29,510. Its edges sit near one standard deviation support at 28,728.48 and resistance at 29,507.02.
Monday's calendar is thin. The German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET and the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A telecom carrier's results are listed at 7:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the open. The cash session opens at 9:30 AM ET, and the captured calendars carry no first-order US release for Monday morning. The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash close follows at 4:00 PM ET. Globex halts at 5:00 PM ET and reopens at 6:00 PM ET. Japan's services producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The scheduled calendar lists no Monday entry.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 28,804.58 and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58. Within it, a rebound toward the 29,280 to 29,320 band that fails beneath Friday's 29,326.00 high is weighted slightly above a recovery. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative is a recovery in technology shares ahead of the week's results. That would carry the contract back above the 29,483.22 flip equivalent toward one standard deviation resistance at 29,507.02. The oversold readings keep a rebound before any extension a live alternative. In the review's judgment the first-order influence for the Nasdaq-100 on Monday is positioning ahead of the week's policy statement and results after a weekend of Gulf headlines, with no first-order scheduled release on the captured calendars for the day.
Friday's 29,326.00 high, the top of the narrowest range since 10/13, now sits 6.00 points above Monday's short band.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 29,117.75 on Friday, down 24.25 or 0.08 percent from Thursday's settle of 29,142.00, after trading between 29,326.00 and 28,987.00, a 339.00 point daily range. The settle finished at 38.6 percent of the range, and the 339.00 point range was 0.61 times the published 14-day average daily range of 552.18 points. Friday printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday and made a second consecutive lower settle. The range was the narrowest since the 314.75 point range of 10/13, the settle was the lowest since the 28,688.50 settle of 07/31, and the 28,987.00 low was the lowest since the 28,599.50 low of 08/03 and is now the provider's published one-month low.
Over the week the contract lost 273.75 points or 0.93 percent from the 29,391.50 settle of 10/16. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,957.53, down 1.16 points and essentially unchanged, while the S&P 500 cash index fell 0.52 percent and the Dow industrials 1.23 percent. The semiconductor index rose 0.44 percent to 10,779.46 after Thursday's 6.72 percent fall, and the positioning note published after the close cited a relief bounce in memory shares.
December WTI settled at 103.27, up 3.82 percent, the ten-year yield index rose to 4.99 percent from 4.95 percent and the dollar index to 101.81 from 101.61. The Nasdaq-100 volatility index eased to 28.30 from 28.72 while the S&P 500 volatility index rose to 19.45 from 19.03. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved, so no move is attributed to any one of them.
The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day settlement averages and above the 200-day, negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the composite multi-indicator read is 56 percent sell against 40 percent sell a session earlier. The index closed beneath the modeled volatility threshold and the modeled gamma-flip level published with the evening positioning note, both model outputs read as a damping lens with no direction. The published 14-day average true range is 538.82 points. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 29,280 to 29,320 band around Pivot R1 at 29,300.17, stopped at 29,420 above Friday's 29,326.00 high, with objectives at 29,180, 29,060 and an extended 28,940. A weekend separates Friday's settle from the Sunday reopen, and two days of headline exposure make a gap in either direction a live risk.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 29,116.50 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 25.50 points beneath Thursday's settle, marked a daily high of 29,326.00 and a daily low of 28,987.00, and settled at 29,117.75. No intraday series was preserved for this session, so this review does not describe the order in which the high and the low printed, and no timed price path is asserted; the daily bar alone fixes the open, the extremes and the settle.
This review records only that the 29,326.00 high and the 28,987.00 low both belong to Friday's completed session and that the settle sits 130.75 points above the low and 208.25 points beneath the high. The cash index traded between 29,161.03 and 28,825.72 in the provider's daily record.
No Globex session is open on a Friday evening, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 29,116.50, 29,326.00 and 28,987.00, belong to Friday's completed session and match the settlement row. The chart's 30-minute bars after the cash close show electronic trade until the 5:00 PM ET halt, with a last 30-minute bar closing at 29,175.00; these are post-settlement quotes, not settlements, and they do not form a preserved intraday series.
Friday's completed-session extremes are also the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 29,639.17 minus Pivot S3 at 28,622.17, divided by three, returns 339.00, and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 minus Pivot S2 at 28,804.58, divided by two, returns the same 339.00. Three times the Pivot Point of 29,143.58 less the 29,117.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 58,312.99, which the pair of 29,326.00 and 28,987.00 reproduces to the published rounding at 58,313.00, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar carry the same 29,116.50 open, 29,326.00 high, 28,987.00 low and 29,117.75 settle, and the provider's one-month low reads 28,987.00, equal to Friday's low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday's 29,326.00 high sits 667.25 points beneath Thursday's 29,993.25, and the 28,987.00 low sits 46.00 points beneath Thursday's 29,033.00, so the session printed a lower high and a lower low. The settle just above the 29,116.50 open leaves a body of 1.25 points, an upper shadow of 208.25 points above the settle and a lower shadow of 129.50 points beneath the open.
Settlements over the last ten sessions ran 30,898.25, 30,791.50, 30,182.75, 30,143.75, 29,391.50, 29,722.50, 29,675.25, 30,007.00 and 29,142.00 before Friday's 29,117.75, so Friday made a second consecutive lower settle and the lowest settle since the 28,688.50 settle of 07/31. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 30,225.00, 29,983.50, 29,903.50, 30,113.00, 29,993.25 and 29,326.00, and the sequence of session lows reads 29,268.75, 29,226.00, 29,391.75, 29,727.50, 29,033.00 and 28,987.00.
The one-month low now sits at Friday's 28,987.00 and the 13-week low at 27,482.00. The one-month, 13-week and 52-week highs all sit at 31,616.50, and the 52-week low at 23,429.00. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 445.00, 314.75, 813.50, 574.25, 956.25, 757.50, 511.75, 385.50, 960.25 and 339.00, so Friday's range was the narrowest since the 314.75 point range of 10/13. The settlement changes over the same ten sessions read minus 210.50, minus 106.75, minus 608.75, minus 39.00, minus 752.25, plus 331.00, minus 47.25, plus 331.75, minus 865.00 and minus 24.25.
The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 29,061.38, 56.37 points beneath the settle, and the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88. Above, the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 29,549.25, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,991.47 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,301.75. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions through Friday; no partial row was present because no Globex session is open on a Friday evening. Rounded once to whole points, the 5-day average stands at about 29,533, the 9-day at about 29,797, the 20-day at about 30,453, the 50-day at about 30,121, the 100-day at about 29,979 and the 200-day at about 28,379.
The 29,117.75 settle sits about 415 points beneath the 5-day average, about 679 points beneath the 9-day, about 1,335 points beneath the 20-day, about 1,004 points beneath the 50-day and about 861 points beneath the 100-day, and about 739 points above the 200-day. The 5-day average fell about 55 points from Thursday's 29,588, because the 10/16 settle of 29,391.50 left the window and was replaced by 29,117.75. The 20-day fell about 89 points from 30,541, because the 09/25 settle of 30,889.25 left that window, and the 50-day fell about 27 points from 30,149.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged more than the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at about 29,900. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at about 29,837, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at about 26,778. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Monday: 29,672.81 for the 9-day, 30,422.12 for the 18-day and 30,204.33 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:22 PM ET on Friday with no Globex session open, so they reflect the Friday settle; they are the provider's published readings and were not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 30.19, the 14-day relative strength 35.62 and the 20-day relative strength 39.94.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 6.81 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 4.97 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 13.95 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 18.86 percent, so %K sits beneath %D near the bottom of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 40.92 with the 9-day +DI at 8.72 and the 9-day -DI at 33.58; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 25.84 with the 14-day +DI at 11.76 and the 14-day -DI at 30.76, so negative direction leads on both and the 9-day ADX reads above the 14-day. The 9-day historic volatility reads 21.58 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 19.03 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Monday session is 56 percent sell, against the prior session's snapshot of 40 percent sell, with signal strength and direction both described as average. The snapshot history reads 40 percent sell a week ago and 88 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium-horizon group 50 percent sell and the long-horizon group 33 percent sell, and the composite trend indicator reads sell.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 538.82 points and the 14-day average daily range at 552.18 points; the 9-day average true range is 563.99 with a 9-day average daily range of 623.64, and the 20-day average true range is 526.25 with a 20-day average daily range of 529.99. Friday's 339.00 point range was 0.61 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 538.82 points from the 29,117.75 settle frames Monday between 28,578.93 and 29,656.57. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 28,728.48 to 29,507.02, two spans 28,567.23 to 29,668.27 and three spans 28,443.51 to 29,791.99. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and a weekend headline gap can open outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 29,117.75 settle, the first overhead reference is the Pivot Point at 29,143.58, followed by Pivot R1 at 29,300.17 and Friday's 29,326.00 high. Pivot R2 at 29,482.58, one standard deviation resistance at 29,507.02 and the 14-3 day projection at 29,512.90 form the next band, with the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 29,549.25 above. Pivot R3 at 29,639.17, two standard deviations resistance at 29,668.27 and the 9-day average crossing price at 29,672.81 come next, with three standard deviations resistance at 29,791.99 and Thursday's 29,993.25 high the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 29,061.38, then Friday's 28,987.00 low, which is also the one-month low, Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 and the published target price at 28,946.67. Pivot S2 at 28,804.58 and one standard deviation support at 28,728.48 form the next band, with the 07/31 settle of 28,688.50 and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 28,661.32 beneath. Pivot S3 at 28,622.17, two standard deviations support at 28,567.23, the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88 and three standard deviations support at 28,443.51 form the extended band.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle
The news feed carried at 1:11 PM ET to 1:17 PM ET remarks attributed by a press report to the social-media group's chief artificial-intelligence officer that its assistant would compete with Chinese models through subscriptions rather than advertising, and earlier items on a leading artificial-intelligence developer's model-training controls and computing capacity talks. Thursday's technology selloff on doubts over returns on artificial-intelligence spending eased on Friday, with the Nasdaq-100 cash index unchanged and the semiconductor index up 0.44 percent.
Results from a search-engine group are scheduled after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, results from a software maker after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and results from an online retailer after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The positioning note published after the close described limited appetite for longer-dated positions ahead of these results.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index closed at 10,779.46, up 47.48 or 0.44 percent, after trading between 10,923.18 and 10,667.92, and after Thursday's 6.72 percent decline. The positioning note cited a relief bounce in memory shares and outperformance in energy and cybersecurity, while most S&P 500 shares declined. No single-name semiconductor result was released on Friday on the captured calendars.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The ten-year yield index rose to 4.99 percent from 4.95 percent and the thirty-year to 5.32 percent from 5.28 percent. The US flash purchasing managers' composite printed 57.6 against a 57.6 forecast and 58.4 previously, and the final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 against a 46.3 forecast with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The positioning note put the priced probability of an unchanged rate at the next meeting at 90 percent, and the FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 11:06 AM ET a maritime security report of a tanker hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, at 3:32 PM ET an Iranian Revolutionary Guards statement that two tankers struck naval mines south of the Strait, and at 3:36 PM ET the President saying the US may do another operation against Iran. The news feed also carried at 9:18 AM ET a localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire around Oleshky and at 2:49 AM ET a Chinese pledge of action after US curbs on research ties. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than confirmed events.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
December WTI settled at 103.27, up 3.82 percent, and the dollar index closed at 101.81. The Nasdaq-100 volatility index closed at 28.30 against 28.72 on Thursday, the S&P 500 volatility index at 19.45 against 19.03 and the volatility-of-volatility index at 109.70 against 107.94. The positioning note recorded the S&P 500 volatility index reaching 20.66 before closing at 19.44 and the volatility-of-volatility index reaching 118.17 before closing at 109.70, on its own print.
December gold settled at 4,007.9, down 1.29 percent. The Dow industrials fell 1.23 percent and the NYSE composite 0.65 percent, so the Nasdaq-100 cash index outperformed the broad market on Friday after underperforming on Thursday.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts leveraged-fund long positions at 51,749 contracts, up 3,643 on the week, and leveraged-fund short positions at 50,799, down 8,900, for a net long of 950 against a net short of 11,593 a week earlier. Asset-manager long positions fell 2,619 to 109,985 and asset-manager short positions fell 5,086 to 32,195. The report predates Thursday's decline.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 288,953 for Thursday, on the 2026-10-22 row of the provider's record, a figure Friday's outlook listed as not yet reported, and Friday's open interest is not yet reported; Friday's December volume was 672,105 contracts against 855,326 on Thursday, the 2026-10-22 row, revised from the 822,661 carried in Friday's outlook.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
This review uses the QQQ fund and the evening positioning note's index columns as the proxy for the positioning data available. The positioning note is the 5:09 PM ET edition for Friday, read at 6:17 PM ET. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes: NDX 28,958 equals Thursday's 28,958.69 cash close and QQQ 704 matches the fund's Thursday close of 704.59 shown on the console.
On the index the modeled volatility threshold sits at NDX 29,200, the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,323, and the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base both at NDX 28,000. Against Friday's 28,957.53 cash close, the close sits 242.47 points beneath the threshold, 365.47 points beneath the flip level, 717.47 points beneath the call side ceiling and 957.53 points above the put side base. Index gamma tilt reads 0.726 and gamma notional minus 7.166 million dollars, both model outputs, and the key index strikes are NDX 28,000, 29,000, 30,000 and 29,675.
On the fund the modeled volatility threshold sits at 725, the call side ceiling at 760, the modeled gamma-flip level at 730, and the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base both at 700. Fund gamma tilt reads 0.467 and gamma notional minus 1.302 billion dollars, proxy model outputs, and the key fund strikes are 700, 690, 710 and 720. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
At the measured 160.22 point basis, the December settle of 29,117.75 less the 28,957.53 cash close, this review converts the index threshold to 29,360.22, the flip level to 29,483.22, the 29,000 strike to 29,160.22 and the put side base to 28,160.22 in December futures terms. These conversions are this review's, not the source's.
The QQQ console, read at about 6:23 PM ET with a page date of 2026-10-23, shows call gamma of minus 1.26 billion against put gamma of minus 2.7 billion, one-month implied volatility of 25.55 percent against realised volatility of 17.84 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 72.96 percent, a skew rank of 34.00 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.42. The console's live price field and its high and low volatility point fields are excluded.
In this review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, an index close beneath both the threshold and the flip level, with negative gamma notional on the index and the fund, describes an environment where dealer hedging is more likely to amplify than to dampen moves, a damping read with no direction, and a fund implied volatility well above realised shows the options market pricing more movement than the index has recently delivered. The setup in section 8 sells the 29,280 to 29,320 band, beneath the 29,360.22 conversion of the threshold, with the 29,420 stop beneath the 29,483.22 conversion of the flip level.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex and Asia)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, 2026 after two days of weekend headline exposure that separate Friday's settle from the open. A gap above Friday's 29,326.00 high would put Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 in reach, and a gap beneath Friday's 28,987.00 low would expose Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 and Pivot S2 at 28,804.58. Bias lower beneath Pivot R1 at 29,300.17, expected band roughly 28,940 to 29,330 absent a headline gap.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
The German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET and the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 28,900 to 29,350, with Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 the first meaningful support beneath the 28,987.00 low and Pivot R1 at 29,300.17 the first pivot resistance above the Pivot Point at 29,143.58, with the 29,160.22 December equivalent of the NDX 29,000 key strike between them.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, RTH Open)
A telecom carrier's results are listed at 7:00 AM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test. The captured calendars carry no first-order US economic release for Monday morning. Expected band roughly 28,800 to 29,480, with Pivot S2 at 28,804.58 4.58 points inside its bottom and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 2.58 points above its top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the cash close follows at 4:00 PM ET. Expected band roughly 28,730 to 29,510, with the outer edges near one standard deviation support at 28,728.48 and one standard deviation resistance at 29,507.02.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Monday after the 5:00 PM ET halt, and Japan's services producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with results from a search-engine group and a software maker after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, so the forward window carries the week's first-order events.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 28,940 to 29,330; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 28,800 to 29,480; High-range scenario: 28,580 to 29,660.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 28,804.58 and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58, with a rebound toward the 29,280 to 29,320 band that fails beneath Friday's 29,326.00 high weighted slightly above a recovery. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 100-day, negative direction leads on both directional systems, the composite moved to 56 percent sell from 40 percent sell, and the cash index closed beneath the modeled threshold and flip level.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a recovery in technology shares ahead of next week's results, which could carry the contract back above the 29,483.22 conversion of the flip level toward one standard deviation resistance at 29,507.02. The 14-day raw stochastic at 4.97 percent and Friday's narrow 339.00 point range describe an oversold, compressed market, so a rebound before any extension is a live alternative.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The US flash purchasing managers' surveys printed a composite of 57.6, services at 57.9 and manufacturing at 56.0, and the final University of Michigan sentiment survey printed 48.0 with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The news feed carried at 4:48 PM ET a rating agency statement that France's rating remains Aa3.
On Monday, October 26, 2026 the German business climate survey is listed at 5:00 AM ET, the UK distributive trades survey at 7:00 AM ET and a telecom carrier's results at 7:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The US two-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and Japan's services producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The scheduled calendar contains no Monday, October 26, 2026 entry.
Later in the week, the FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, the FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, results from a search-engine group and a software maker follow after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and an online retailer's results after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence for the Nasdaq-100 on Monday is positioning ahead of that grouping after a weekend of Gulf headlines, with no first-order scheduled release on the captured calendars for the day.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 100-day, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, the composite moved to 56 percent sell, and the cash index closed beneath the modeled threshold and flip level with negative gamma notional. A rebound into the 29,280 to 29,320 band around Pivot R1 at 29,300.17 offers a short with a defined risk point above Friday's 29,326.00 high. The oversold readings and two days of weekend headline exposure leave room for a gap in either direction, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rallies are sold while technology leadership stays under pressure, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 29,280 to 29,320
Stop Loss: 29,420 (above Friday's 29,326.00 high and beneath Pivot R2 at 29,482.58)
Target 1 (T1): 29,180 (above the Pivot Point at 29,143.58)
Target 2 (T2): 29,060 (just beneath the 38.2 percent retracement at 29,061.38)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 28,940 (beneath Pivot S1 at 28,961.17 and the published target price at 28,946.67)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 29,320.
Macro override: A broad recovery in technology shares, or a de-escalation in the Gulf that pulls crude and yields lower, would undercut the short. In that scenario a move through the 29,420 stop invalidates the setup before the targets, and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 and the 29,483.22 conversion of the flip level become the references, about 63 points beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 538.82 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 23, 2026 for the Monday, October 26, 2026 session. Friday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-10-23 row, and match the chart's completed daily bar. Friday's completed extremes are also the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 29,639.17 less Pivot S3 at 28,622.17, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 29,482.58 less Pivot S2 at 28,804.58, divided by two, both return 339.00, and three times the 29,143.58 Pivot Point less the settle gives 58,312.99, which the pair of 29,326.00 and 28,987.00 reproduces to the published rounding at 58,313.00. No intraday series was preserved for Friday, so no statement in this article places a Friday print at a time of day, and Friday's card is graded against the daily bar alone. Friday's session opened at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen. No Globex session is open on a Friday evening, so the open, high and low on the provider's overview belong to Friday's completed session; the 29,175.00 last 30-minute bar before the 5:00 PM ET halt is a post-settlement quote. Monday's session opens at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's 260-session daily settlement series for the December contract and stated to whole points; the oscillators are cited as published, read at about 6:22 PM ET on Friday with no Globex session open. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-23 row reads 672,105 contracts with open interest not yet reported, the 2026-10-22 row now reads 855,326 contracts and open interest of 288,953, where Friday's outlook carried 822,661 contracts and open interest not yet reported, and the 2026-10-21 row reads open interest of 270,896. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. The evening positioning note used is the 5:09 PM ET Friday edition, read at 6:17 PM ET, with Thursday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is the review's conversion at the 160.22 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close from the same provider's daily record, against 183.31 on Thursday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. The reading that dealer hedging is more likely to amplify than to dampen moves is the review's interpretation from the index model and that proxy, both model outputs, and it is a damping read with no direction; the fund console, dated 2026-10-23, was read at about 6:23 PM ET. The volume and open-interest changes, the weekly positioning nets, the Nasdaq-100 cash percent change, the ten-session net change and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Friday outlook covers the index that fell 0.52 percent in cash on Friday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
