Crude Oil 88.74: Long 87.70 to 88.00 Above the Pivot

Executive Summary

The December crude contract settled at 88.74 on Thursday, up 2.21 or 2.55 percent from Wednesday's settle of 86.53, after trading between 89.15 and 85.13, a 4.02 point daily range. The settle finished at 89.8 percent of the range, 3.61 above the low and 0.41 beneath the high, and the range was 0.89 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 4.51 points. Thursday printed a higher high, 0.41 above Wednesday's 88.74, and a lower low, 0.68 beneath Wednesday's 85.81, so the day engulfed Wednesday's range and settled near its top.

The 88.74 settle is the highest since the 90.83 settle of 11/06/26, the 2.55 percent gain is the largest since the 2.72 percent gain of 11/05/26, and the 4.02 point range is the widest since the 6.40 point range of 11/09/26. Thursday was the second consecutive higher settle. Over five sessions the contract is down 1.78 from the 90.52 settle of 11/05/26, a decline of 1.97 percent. The settle sits above the 5-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages and beneath the 9-day, 20-day and 50-day.

The session turned in the 8:00 AM ET bar. The contract had drifted to 85.13 in that bar, the session low, and then rose to 87.75 before closing the bar at 87.26, a 1.43 gain from its open and a 2.62 point span, both the largest of any 30-minute bar in the session. At 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the US President's remark that the United States does not need a deal with Iran; the bar's reversal and that headline coincided, and the series does not separate the effect of the remark from other flows. The contract held between 86.20 and 87.83 through the morning and the 12:00 PM ET government inventory release, then rose through the afternoon to settle at 88.74 at 2:30 PM ET, and the 89.15 high printed in the 3:00 PM ET bar, after the settlement.

Brent's January contract settled at 95.82, up 3.06 dollars or 3.30 percent, per a news-feed settlement item and the settlement record, and the dollar index's daily record closed at 103.17, up 0.25 percent. The provider's market commentary described the weekly government inventory report as bearish and said crude rose despite it on the President's comments, which is attributed commentary; the report's figures were not captured in this analysis. From 2:02 PM ET the news feed carried Iranian state media reports of an attack on Sirik in Iran's Hormozgan province, described as military in nature, and from 3:28 PM ET, after the settle, remarks by the President that he would consider military force in Iran if needed.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening is "16% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest", against "24% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a long from the 87.70 to 88.00 band, between the Pivot Point at 87.67 and the 88.10 stochastic projection, stopped at 86.95, with objectives at 88.75, 89.65 and an extended 90.55. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and in this review's judgment Iran headlines are the first-order input for crude on Friday, with the producer price index the first-order scheduled release.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Thursday session opened at 86.50 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.03 beneath Wednesday's settle. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the 30-minute series on NYMEX:CL1! held between 85.20 and 86.99, with the overnight low of 85.20 in the 11:30 PM ET bar, and the window closed at 86.96 in the 2:30 AM ET bar.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open the contract traded between 85.13 and 87.75 and closed the window at 86.56. The 3:00 AM ET bar rose 0.55 to 87.51 and the 3:30 AM ET bar fell 0.74, the largest decline of any bar in the session. The 8:00 AM ET bar made the session low of 85.13 and then closed at 87.26, its 1.43 gain from open to close and its 2.62 point span from high to low both the largest of any bar in the session. The 8:30 AM ET bar gave back 0.66 to 86.64.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 86.20, in the 9:30 AM ET bar, and 89.15, in the 3:00 PM ET bar. The 11:30 AM ET bar rose 0.63 to 87.33. The 12:00 PM ET bar, which spans the government inventory release, traded between 86.83 and 87.83 and closed at 87.63, its 1.00 point span the second widest of the session. The 2:00 PM ET bar rose 0.56 to 88.79, the settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 88.74, the 3:00 PM ET bar reached 89.15 and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 88.70, 0.04 beneath the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:22 PM ET, carries an open of 88.79, a high of 88.92 and a low of 88.70 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, not to Thursday's completed session; its previous close field reads 88.74. Thursday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 94.24 minus Pivot S3 at 82.18, divided by three, returns 4.02, and Pivot R2 at 91.69 minus Pivot S2 at 83.65, divided by two, returns the same 4.02. The published Pivot Point is 87.67. Three times that value, less the 88.74 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 174.27, within the rounding of the published value, which with the 4.02 range solves to a high of 89.145 and a low of 85.125, or 89.15 and 85.13 at the published two-decimal rounding.

That pair, with the 88.74 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 86.50 open, 89.15 high, 85.13 low and 88.74 settle. The 89.15 high belongs to the electronic trade after the 2:30 PM ET settlement window, in the 3:00 PM ET bar; the highest bar high up to and including the 2:00 PM ET bar was 88.85.

2.2 Daily Structure

Thursday printed a higher high and a lower low against Wednesday and settled 2.21 higher, near the top of the range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 90.52, 90.83, 86.85, 86.04, 86.53 and 88.74, so the contract has recovered 2.70 of the 4.79 points lost on Monday and Tuesday and settles 1.78 beneath the 90.52 settle of 11/05/26.

The 88.74 settle is the highest since the 90.83 settle of 11/06/26, and the 89.15 high is the highest since the 91.42 high of 11/09/26. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 83.88 as the one-month low and 76.67 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 1.25 above the 87.49 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low and 2.09 beneath the 90.83 level published as the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range.

In this review's interpretation a settle at 89.8 percent of an engulfing range describes buyers in control at the settlement, but it came on a headline, with the settle still beneath the 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages, so the day repairs the short-term picture without changing the larger structure of lower highs from the 104.99 high of 10/30/26.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

The 4.02 point range was the widest since the 6.40 point range of 11/09/26, after ranges of 3.05 on Tuesday and 2.93 on Wednesday. In the 30-minute series one bar, at 8:00 AM ET, moved more than 1.00 from open to close, and one bar, the same 8:00 AM ET bar, spanned more than 1.00 from high to low.

The swing sequence since the 104.99 high of 10/30/26 shows highs of 97.15 on 11/04 and 91.32 on 11/05, a higher high at 92.53 on 11/06, lower highs at 91.42 on Monday and 86.93 on Tuesday, and higher highs at 88.74 on Wednesday and 89.15 on Thursday, both beneath Monday's 91.42. The lows read 85.02 on Monday, 83.88 on Tuesday, 85.81 on Wednesday and 85.13 on Thursday, so Thursday's low held 1.25 above Tuesday's 83.88.

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/02/26, ran 7.60, 5.23, 10.02, 4.67, 3.46, 6.40, 3.05, 2.93 and 4.02. The published grid places the 3-10-16 day MACD stall at 87.22, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 87.49, the 9-day average crossing level at 89.21 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 90.83.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed in this analysis from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 11/03/25 through Thursday; the partial row dated Friday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 87.80, the 9-day at 90.02, the 20-day at 95.80, the 50-day at 92.54, the 100-day at 84.33 and the 200-day at 78.99.

The 88.74 settle sits 0.94 above the 5-day average, 1.28 beneath the 9-day, 7.06 beneath the 20-day and 3.80 beneath the 50-day, and 4.41 above the 100-day and 9.75 above the 200-day. It is the first settle above the 5-day average since 10/30/26, after eight consecutive settles beneath it, the ninth consecutive settle beneath the 20-day average, the last settle above it on 10/30/26, and the seventh consecutive settle beneath the 50-day, the last settle above it on 11/03/26. The 5-day average fell from Wednesday's 88.15 as Thursday's settle replaced the 11/05 settle of 90.52, and the 9-day fell from 91.73 as the 104.12 settle of 10/30/26 left the window.

The 5-day average sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 98.47. The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 90.37. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 76.11, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 73.66.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:22 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not the computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 39.74, the 14-day relative strength 42.64 and the 20-day relative strength 45.54.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 25.76 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 23.02 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 15.27 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 13.33 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 45.32 with the 9-day +DI at 13.23 and the 9-day -DI at 29.37, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 35.55 with the 14-day +DI at 15.29 and the 14-day -DI at 25.87, so negative direction still leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 60.92 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 54.97 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening, on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "16% SELL", with signal strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "24% SELL" for the prior session, "24% SELL" a week ago and "96% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.33 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.51 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.47 with a 9-day average daily range of 5.26, and the 20-day average true range is 4.14 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.40. Thursday's 4.02 point range was 0.89 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.33 from the 88.74 settle frames Friday between 84.41 and 93.07. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 86.76 to 90.72 at one deviation, 85.94 to 91.54 at two and 85.31 to 92.17 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach. In this review's judgment Friday carries headline risk on Iran in both directions and the weekend exposure that follows the close, which makes a range near the 14-day average more likely than a contraction.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 88.74 settle, the first reference is Thursday's 89.15 high, printed after the settlement, with the 89.21 level at which price would cross the 9-day average just above it. The 9-day average at 90.02 and Pivot R1 at 90.22 form the next band, followed by one standard deviation resistance at 90.72 and the 90.83 midpoint of the 13-week range. Two standard deviation resistance at 91.54, Pivot R2 at 91.69 and the 50-day average at 92.54 are the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit the 88.70 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 88.10 projection for the 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20 percent. The 5-day average at 87.80 and the Pivot Point at 87.67 form the next band, with the 87.49 retracement from the 13-week low and the 87.22 MACD stall beneath them. One standard deviation support at 86.76, Pivot S1 at 86.20 and the 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low follow, with Thursday's 85.13 low, Tuesday's 83.88 one-month low and Pivot S2 at 83.65 as the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)

The provider's market commentary said crude was under pressure early on Thursday as Middle East production increased, citing a 26 percent rise in Saudi crude output in October and a new wartime high for Iraq's output, which is attributed commentary and not recomputed. No producer-group statement was captured on Thursday. The international energy agency's monthly oil report is listed for 4:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and in this review's judgment it is the main scheduled supply read before the US open.

4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)

The weekly government petroleum report, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, was scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and has been released. Its figures were not captured in this analysis: the news-feed calendar's actual column was blank at the 6:18 PM ET read. The provider's market commentary described the report as bearish, which is attributed commentary. The 12:00 PM ET bar traded between 86.83 and 87.83 and closed 0.28 higher at 87.63; the release and that bar coincided, and the series does not isolate the report's effect. The next weekly report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)

At 8:07 AM ET the news feed's market-moving channel carried the President's statement that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and the provider's commentary attributed Thursday's rise to that shift from earlier comments in favour of a diplomatic resolution, which is attributed commentary. From 2:02 PM ET to 2:05 PM ET the feed carried Iranian state media reports that Sirik, in Hormozgan province, was hit by fire described as military in nature; the 2:00 PM ET bar rose 0.56 to 88.79 and those reports coincided.

After the settle, from 3:28 PM ET to 3:31 PM ET, the feed carried the President's remarks that the United States has fought Iran at a rapid pace over the last three weeks, that he would possibly use military force in Iran if needed and that he would consider a week-long campaign against Cuba. A 3:46 PM ET commodities item reported that Brent briefly reached 96 dollars after the remark on an Iran deal, and a 4:34 PM ET item reported a Texas port executive saying a supertanker squeeze is limiting US crude exports. These are reports carried by the feeds, and the settlement series does not establish that any single item caused a particular move.

4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)

Heating oil's December contract settled at 4.2865 dollars a gallon, up 1.79 percent, and gasoline's December contract at 2.6708, up 2.43 percent, against crude's 2.55 percent gain. Measured on the December contracts, the heating oil margin over December WTI widened to 91.29 dollars a barrel from 90.34, and the gasoline margin widened to 23.43 from 22.99. Natural gas's December contract settled at 3.340, up 3.89 percent. Both product margins widened on a day when crude rose, which in this review's interpretation points to product demand keeping pace with the crude bid rather than lagging it.

4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)

The dollar index's daily record closed at 103.17, up 0.26 points or 0.25 percent, and the provider's commentary described a fresh 1.5-year high, which is attributed commentary. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.10 after a 5.12 high, against 4.98 on Tuesday, the last session in which the cash Treasury market traded before the holiday. Gold's December contract fell 2.88 percent, silver's December contract fell 3.72 percent and the S&P 500 cash index fell 0.35 percent.

Crude rose 2.55 percent while the dollar and yields rose, so the usual dollar headwind did not govern the session; in this review's interpretation the supply premium tied to Iran outweighed the rates channel on Thursday. The provider's commentary also reported weekly jobless claims rising 9,000 to 200,000 against expectations of 194,000, which is attributed commentary.

4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 147,382 long, down 10,051, against 125,654 short, down 651, as listed and not recomputed. Thursday's December volume was 237,960 contracts against 240,619 on Wednesday, per the settlement record. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.05 from 1.10, and Brent's January premium over January WTI widened to 8.13 from 7.33 as Brent's January contract rose 3.30 percent against 2.65 percent for January WTI. The provider lists 11/20/26 as the December contract's expiration date and 11/24/26 as its first notice date, so the front-month reference moves to January within the coming week.

Options positioning

This analysis covers crude without a positioning dataset; listed crude options trade, but no dealer-positioning dataset for them was read in this analysis. There is no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.

This is a statement about the scope of this analysis, not about the existence or liquidity of listed crude options. No claim resting on such a dataset appears in this review. The positioning inputs used for crude are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins, the volume record and the weekly positioning figures in section 4.6.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday with the overview showing an 88.79 open, 0.05 above the 88.74 settle, after the President's 3:28 PM ET remarks on Iran. Bias neutral to higher above the Pivot Point at 87.67, expected band roughly 87.70 to 89.60.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)

The international energy agency's monthly oil report is listed for 4:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and euro area growth data for 5:00 AM ET by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. Bias neutral above the 87.49 retracement, expected band roughly 87.30 to 89.80.

Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, US Open / Pit Session)

The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, ahead of the pit open. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 86.90 to 90.20, with the 87.70 to 88.00 setup band near the lower edge.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Friday, NYMEX Pit Close)

Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the settlement at 2:30 PM ET fixes the reference for the week. Expected band roughly 87.00 to 90.30, with Pivot R1 at 90.22 the upper reference.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, after the Friday close. Globex does not reopen on Friday evening; the next session opens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of Iran headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the reopen. In this review's judgment a gap through Pivot R1 at 90.22 on the upside or through Pivot S1 at 86.20 on the downside is possible on a weekend headline.

Expected Range (Friday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 87.40 to 89.80

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 86.60 to 90.60

High-range scenario: 85.40 to 91.80

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 87.67 and Pivot R1 at 90.22 into the producer price index scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a dip toward the 87.70 to 88.00 band that holds above the 87.49 retracement weighted above a settle through it, followed by a retest of Thursday's 89.15 high. The settle at 89.8 percent of an engulfing range and the first settle above the 5-day average support that reading, while the composite at "16% SELL" with direction "Weakest" and negative direction on both directional systems argue for a test rather than a run.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle beneath the 87.22 MACD stall and one standard deviation support at 86.76, which would bring Pivot S1 at 86.20 and Thursday's 85.13 low back into play; reports of renewed diplomacy with Iran or a firmer dollar after the producer price index are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, further reports of military action in the Gulf could carry the contract through Pivot R1 at 90.22 toward one standard deviation resistance at 90.72 without the dip the setup needs.

Calendar

Thursday's releases are complete. Weekly jobless claims, listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, were reported by the provider's commentary at 200,000 against expectations of 194,000, which is attributed commentary. The weekly government petroleum report was released at its scheduled 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and its figures were not captured in this analysis. December WTI settled at 2:30 PM ET at 88.74.

Friday opens with French consumer prices listed for 2:45 AM ET and the international energy agency's monthly oil report listed for 4:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, followed by euro area growth data listed for 5:00 AM ET by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a monthly forecast of 0.4 percent against 1.3 percent previously and a core forecast of 0.3 percent against 0.7 percent, figures that are unconfirmed. Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:10 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Next week, the weekly government petroleum report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's judgment Iran headlines are the first-order input for crude on Friday, with the 8:30 AM ET producer price index the first-order scheduled release, per the verified forward calendar.

Primary setup

Direction: Long

Rationale: The contract settled at 89.8 percent of a range that engulfed Wednesday's, with the second consecutive higher settle and the first settle above the 5-day average. A dip into the 87.70 to 88.00 band, between the Pivot Point at 87.67 and the 88.10 stochastic projection and around the 87.80 5-day average, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath the 87.22 MACD stall. The composite still reads "16% SELL" and the settle sits beneath the 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips toward the Pivot Point are bought after Thursday's reversal, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 87.70 to 88.00

Stop Loss: 86.95 (beneath the 87.22 MACD stall and above one standard deviation support at 86.76)

Target 1 (T1): 88.75 (at the 88.74 settle)

Target 2 (T2): 89.65 (above Thursday's 89.15 high and the 89.21 crossing level)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 90.55 (above Pivot R1 at 90.22, beneath one standard deviation resistance at 90.72)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle beneath the 87.22 MACD stall negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 87.70.

Macro override: Reports that talks with Iran have resumed, a reversal of the President's stance on a deal, or a strong dollar response to the producer price index would pressure the contract. In that scenario a move through the 86.95 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S1 at 86.20 becomes the reference, 0.75 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 4.33.