Friday's outlook set a short from 7,650 to 7,660. It activated before the cash open and reached all three of its objectives. December S&P 500 futures first traded into the band in the 8:30 AM ET bar, which spanned the producer price index release and made the 7,669.25 session high, 10.75 short of the 7,680 stop, before closing at 7,646.00 beneath the band. No 30-minute bar closed above 7,660, so the acceptance rule never triggered. The 9:30 AM ET bar reached the 7,630 first objective and the 7,605 second objective with a 7,580.75 low, 0.75 short of the third, and the 10:00 AM ET bar reached the extended 7,580 objective with the 7,519.25 session low.
Measured from the bottom of the band, that is a gain of 20.00 points at the first objective, 45.00 at the second and 70.00 at the third; from the top of the band, 30.00, 55.00 and 80.00. Before the first objective traded, the adverse move reached 19.25 points against the bottom of the band and 9.25 against the top. The overnight trade beneath 7,630 and 7,605, down to 7,598.50 in the 3:30 AM ET bar, came before the band traded and does not count toward the result.
Chipmakers and yields set the cash session. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 57.00 to 7,585.25 and the 10:00 AM ET bar a further 44.25 to 7,541.25, and the 7,519.25 low sat 123.00 beneath the 9:30 AM ET bar's open. The provider's market commentary attributed the decline to another selloff in chipmakers and to higher yields after hawkish Fed remarks, which is attributed commentary. The contract recovered through the afternoon.
The contract settled at 7,583.00, down 32.25 or 0.42 percent from Thursday's 7,615.25, after a 150.00 point range from 7,519.25 to 7,669.25, the widest since the 236.75 point range of 11/09/26 and close to the 14-day average daily range of 148.36. It finished 63.75 above the low and 86.25 beneath the high. After the settle, news-feed reports of a departure ground stop at US airports coincided with a decline to 7,535.25 in the 4:30 PM ET bar, which closed at 7,561.00, 22.00 beneath the settle. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday.
- Settle 7,583.00: above the 9-day at 7,562.25 and the 200-day at 7,450.50, beneath the 5-day at 7,591.50, the 20-day at 7,645.50, the 50-day and the 100-day.
- Monday's setup: short 7,610 to 7,620, stop 7,640, targets 7,590, 7,565 and an extended 7,540.
- Thesis negated on a settle above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76; acceptance above the band means two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,620.
- Dealer map: the 7,561.67 cash close sits 38.33 beneath the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold (ES 7,621.25), 43.33 beneath the SPX 7,605 modeled gamma-flip level (ES 7,626.25) and 61.67 above the SPX 7,500 put side support base (ES 7,521.25).
- Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday; remarks by Fed Chair Warsh are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Monday, unconfirmed, and the Nvidia results call is scheduled for Tuesday.
How Friday traded: a high on the report, a cash-session drop to 7,519.25
The night held a range. Globex reopened on Thursday at 6:00 PM ET at 7,620.25, 5.00 above Thursday's settle. To 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 7,601.50, in the 1:30 AM ET bar, and 7,649.75, in the 7:00 PM ET bar, and the window closed at 7,613.00.
The morning lifted into the report. From 3:00 AM ET to the cash open the contract traded between 7,598.50, in the 3:30 AM ET bar, and 7,669.25, in the 8:30 AM ET bar, and closed the window at 7,642.75. The 8:30 AM ET bar spanned the October producer price index, which the news-feed calendar shows at 0.3 percent monthly against a 0.4 percent forecast and 6.5 percent annual against 6.6 percent, with core readings of 0.3 percent monthly and 5.0 percent annual, on forecast; the bar traded across 33.25 points and closed 4.00 higher at 7,646.00.
The cash open reversed it. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 57.00 to 7,585.25 across a 62.75 point span, the largest decline of any bar, and the 10:00 AM ET bar fell 44.25 to 7,541.25 across 66.50 points, the widest span of the session, with the 7,519.25 low. The 12:00 PM ET bar rose 17.00 to 7,558.50, the largest gain of any bar, and the 3:30 PM ET bar rose 14.25 to 7,584.75 after a 7,590.00 high. After the settle the 4:00 PM ET bar fell 33.00 to 7,552.00 across a 41.25 point span.
Structure turned lower. Friday printed a lower high, 5.50 beneath Thursday's 7,674.75, and a lower low, 52.75 beneath Thursday's 7,572.00, ending four consecutive higher lows after the 7,322.25 intraday low of 11/06/26, a session that settled at 7,402.00. It was the second consecutive lower settle and the lowest settle since the 7,544.25 settle of 11/10/26, and the 0.42 percent decline was the largest since the 4.37 percent decline of 11/05/26. Over five sessions the contract is still up 181.00 from that 7,402.00 settle, a gain of 2.45 percent. Volume rose to 1,874,671 contracts from 1,778,074 on Thursday.
The averages split the picture. The settle sits 20.75 above the 9-day at 7,562.25 and 132.50 above the 200-day at 7,450.50, and 8.50 beneath the 5-day at 7,591.50, 62.50 beneath the 20-day at 7,645.50, 117.25 beneath the 100-day at 7,700.25 and 134.00 beneath the 50-day at 7,717.00. It is the first settle beneath the 5-day after four above it and the 12th consecutive settle beneath the 20-day and the 50-day. In our reading a lower high and a lower low with a 63.75 point recovery from the low describe a failed rebound that found buyers near the SPX 7,500 put side support base (ES 7,521.25), rather than a trend change.
Chipmakers and higher yields weighed while the Dow edged up
The provider's commentary described hawkish Fed remarks lifting yields to a 4-week high and raising the chance of further tightening, which is attributed commentary. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.15 after a 5.17 high, up from 5.10, and the dollar index rose 0.23 percent to 103.41. During the session the news feed carried headlines, unconfirmed beyond the feed, that Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Collins and San Francisco Fed President Daly favour further rate increases.
The selling was concentrated. The semiconductor index fell 3.43 percent to 10,146.32 and the Nasdaq-100 1.22 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.10 percent to 52,347.55; in our reading that describes rotation within the index rather than broad liquidation. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,561.67, down 30.73 or 0.40 percent, and the volatility index at 19.30, up 0.60 from 18.70, after a 20.92 high. The news feed carried at 4:03 PM ET a report that Nvidia's weekly decline erased more than 573 billion dollars in value, and at 2:10 PM ET a report that the company's board is selecting a search firm for the chief executive role.
The dealer-positioning dataset, read against the 7,561.67 cash close, places the index 38.33 points beneath the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold (ES 7,621.25), 43.33 beneath the SPX 7,605 modeled gamma-flip level (ES 7,626.25), beneath the SPX 7,590 directional line (ES 7,611.25) and 61.67 above the SPX 7,500 put side support base (ES 7,521.25). Gamma tilt reads 0.926, call and put gamma are both negative, and one-month implied volatility reads 14.23 percent against realized 21.60 percent; in our reading the index sits where hedging may add to moves, with the SPX 7,500 base (ES 7,521.25) the nearest support in the dataset. The composite multi-indicator read is unchanged at "40% SELL", strength "Minimum", direction "Strengthening".
Late reports widen the weekend range. The news feed carried an attack claim on the Saudi east-west pipeline at 3:32 PM ET, an Iranian state media report at 3:47 PM ET of two tankers striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and, at 4:12 PM ET, a press report that the President plans to meet the Russian and Chinese presidents next Thursday in Shenzhen. The airport ground stop was attributed to an air traffic control communications issue, and at 4:49 PM ET a press report said it did not appear to be a cyber attack. In our reading these are weekend gap risks for the index through crude and yields rather than direct drivers of Friday's decline.
The trade map for Monday
The setup sells a rebound into 7,610 to 7,620 (SPX 7,588.67 to 7,598.67). That band sits around the 7,611.25 conversion of the SPX 7,590 directional line, the 7,610.13 midpoint of the 13-week range and one standard deviation resistance at 7,620.31, just beneath the 7,621.25 conversion of the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold. The stop at 7,640 (SPX 7,618.67) clears two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76 and the 7,626.25 conversion of the SPX 7,605 modeled gamma-flip level. Friday's last print, the 7,561.00 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, sits 49.00 beneath the bottom of the band, so price has to recover first.
Targets step down through known references. The first, 7,590 (SPX 7,568.67), sits at the Pivot Point at 7,590.50. The second, 7,565 (SPX 7,543.67), sits above the 7,561.00 post-settle close and the 7,557.84 level at which price would cross the 9-day average. The extended 7,540 (SPX 7,518.67) sits above the 7,535.25 post-settle low. Measured from the 7,615 midpoint of the band, risk to the stop is 25.00 points and reward runs 25.00, 50.00 and 75.00 points, or 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3.
A settle above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76 negates the thesis. Short of that, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,620 remove the edge; a touch alone does not. A recovery in chipmakers ahead of the Nvidia results, a decline in yields or softer remarks from the Fed Chair on Monday could lift the contract through the stop before any target trades. The 20-day average at 7,645.50 then becomes the reference, 5.50 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 129.81.
Our base case holds the contract beneath the 7,591.50 5-day average through the Sunday and London sessions, with a rebound into the band after the cash open likely to stall beneath 7,621.25, followed by a test of the 7,535.25 post-settle low and Friday's 7,519.25 low into the afternoon. The mid-range scenario runs 7,510 to 7,640, the low-range scenario 7,530 to 7,615 and the high-range one 7,460 to 7,690. On the downside, a further rise in yields could carry the contract through the 7,521.25 conversion of the SPX 7,500 base toward Pivot S1 at 7,511.75 and Tuesday's 7,493.00 low without the rebound the setup needs. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday after two days of headlines on the ground stop, the Saudi and Strait of Hormuz reports and Fed commentary, so a gap beneath Friday's 7,519.25 low or above the 7,591.50 5-day average is possible at the reopen. The setup is an analyst judgment, not a measured edge.
The complete data picture
Every figure behind Monday's plan, charted first; the full numeric reference follows underneath.
- S&P 500 cash index 7,561.67 down 0.40%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,347.55 up 0.10%
- Nasdaq-100 cash index down 1.22%
- Semiconductor index 10,146.32 down 3.43%
- Volatility index 19.30 up 0.60
- Ten-year yield index 5.15, high 5.17
- Dollar index 103.41 up 0.23%
- WTI, December down 0.20%
- Gold, December up 0.03%
- Tue, Nov 17, 8:30 AM ET Retail sales
- Tue, Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET Nvidia results conference call, results expected around 4:20 PM ET
- Wed, Nov 18, 2:00 PM ET FOMC minutes
Full numeric reference, every figure from the review
Executive Summary
The December S&P 500 contract settled at 7,583.00 on Friday, down 32.25 or 0.42 percent from Thursday's settle of 7,615.25, after trading between 7,669.25 and 7,519.25, a 150.00 point daily range. The settle finished 63.75 above the low and 86.25 beneath the high. Friday printed a lower high, 5.50 beneath Thursday's 7,674.75, and a lower low, 52.75 beneath Thursday's 7,572.00, and the 150.00 point range was the widest since the 236.75 point range of 11/09/26, against a published 14-day average daily range of 148.36 points.
Friday was the second consecutive lower settle, the settle is the lowest since the 7,544.25 settle of 11/10/26 and the 0.42 percent decline is the largest since the 4.37 percent decline of 11/05/26. Over five sessions the contract is still up 181.00 from the 7,402.00 settle of 11/06/26, a gain of 2.45 percent. The settle sits above the 9-day and 200-day settlement averages and beneath the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day.
The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,561.67, down 30.73 or 0.40 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.10 percent and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.22 percent. The session high of 7,669.25 printed in the 8:30 AM ET bar, which spans the US producer price index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 57.00 and the 10:00 AM ET bar fell a further 44.25, and the session low of 7,519.25 printed in the 10:00 AM ET bar, 123.00 beneath the 9:30 AM ET bar's open. The contract recovered through the afternoon to settle at 7,583.00 at 4:00 PM ET. The provider's market commentary attributed the decline to another selloff in chipmakers and to higher yields after hawkish Fed remarks, which is attributed commentary.
After the settlement the news feed carried reports from 4:10 PM ET of a departure ground stop at US airports, described as nationwide from 4:16 PM ET and attributed to an air traffic control communications issue, and at 4:49 PM ET a press report that it did not appear to be a cyber attack. The 4:00 PM ET bar fell 33.00 to 7,552.00 and the 4:30 PM ET bar reached 7,535.25 before closing at 7,561.00, 22.00 beneath the settle; those reports and the post-settle decline coincided, and the series does not separate their effect from other flows.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Friday evening is "40% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Strengthening", unchanged from "40% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 7,610 to 7,620 band (SPX 7,588.67 to 7,598.67), around this review's 7,611.25 conversion of the SPX 7,590 directional line and beneath its 7,621.25 conversion of the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold, stopped at 7,640, with objectives at 7,590, 7,565 and an extended 7,540. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, and in this review's judgment the chipmaker selloff into the Nvidia results conference call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, is the first-order input for the index this week.
Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 7,620.25 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 5.00 above Thursday's settle. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the 30-minute series on CME_MINI:ESZ2026 held between 7,601.50, in the 1:30 AM ET bar, and 7,649.75, in the 7:00 PM ET bar, and the window closed at 7,613.00 in the 2:30 AM ET bar.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 7,598.50, in the 3:30 AM ET bar, and 7,669.25, in the 8:30 AM ET bar, which carried the session high, and closed the window at 7,642.75. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which spans the US producer price index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, traded across 33.25 points and closed 4.00 higher at 7,646.00.
Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 7,519.25, in the 10:00 AM ET bar, which carried the session low, and 7,643.50, in the 9:30 AM ET bar. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 57.00 to 7,585.25, the largest decline of any bar in the session, across a 62.75 point span, and the 10:00 AM ET bar fell 44.25 to 7,541.25 across a 66.50 point span, the widest of the session. The 12:00 PM ET bar rose 17.00 to 7,558.50, the largest gain of any bar in the session, the 3:30 PM ET bar rose 14.25 to 7,584.75 after a 7,590.00 high, and the settle was fixed at 4:00 PM ET at 7,583.00.
After the settle, the 4:00 PM ET bar fell 33.00 to 7,552.00 across a 41.25 point span, and the 4:30 PM ET bar traded down to 7,535.25 before closing at 7,561.00. Because Friday's session is not followed by a Globex reopen until Sunday, the provider's overview, read at 6:28 PM ET, carries Friday's own open of 7,620.25, high of 7,669.25 and low of 7,519.25, with a previous close field of 7,615.25.
The published pivot ladder was checked against those values with the outer pairs. Pivot R3 at 7,811.75 minus Pivot S3 at 7,361.75, divided by three, returns 150.00, and Pivot R2 at 7,740.50 minus Pivot S2 at 7,440.50, divided by two, returns the same 150.00. The published Pivot Point is 7,590.50. Three times that value, less the 7,583.00 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 15,188.50, which with the 150.00 range solves to a high of 7,669.25 and a low of 7,519.25. That pair, with the 7,583.00 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and the overview's day high and low, the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series carry the same 7,669.25 high and 7,519.25 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday and settled 32.25 lower, beneath the middle of the range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 7,402.00, 7,574.25, 7,544.25, 7,640.50, 7,615.25 and 7,583.00, so the contract has given back 57.50 from Wednesday's 7,640.50 settle over two sessions and holds 260.75 above the 7,322.25 one-month low of 11/06/26.
The provider publishes 7,322.25 as the one-month and 13-week low, 7,879.75 as the one-month high and 7,905.00 as the 52-week high; these are published price extremes, not settlements, and the 7,322.25 low of 11/06/26 was an intraday low in a session that settled at 7,402.00. The settle sits 27.13 beneath the 7,610.13 level published as the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range and 40.81 above the 7,542.19 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low.
In this review's interpretation a lower high and a lower low after Thursday's narrow day, with the settle back beneath the 5-day average and a recovery of 63.75 points from the low, describes a failed rebound that found buyers near the SPX 7,500 (ES 7,521.25) put side base rather than a trend change.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The 150.00 point range followed ranges of 105.75 on Tuesday, 124.00 on Wednesday and 102.75 on Thursday. In the 30-minute series two bars in the cash session spanned more than 60 points, at 9:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, and those two bars carried the two largest declines of the session.
The swing sequence since the 7,322.25 low of 11/06/26 shows lows of 7,363.75 on Monday, 7,493.00 on Tuesday, 7,547.50 on Wednesday and 7,572.00 on Thursday, four consecutive higher lows that Friday's 7,519.25 low ended. The highs read 7,600.50 on Monday, 7,598.75 on Tuesday, 7,671.50 on Wednesday, 7,674.75 on Thursday and 7,669.25 on Friday.
Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/03/26, ran 77.75, 256.25, 392.75, 146.75, 236.75, 105.75, 124.00, 102.75 and 150.00. The published grid places the 9-day average stall at 7,596.75, the 18-day average crossing level at 7,624.85, the 3-10 day crossover stall at 7,524.07 and the 3-10-16 day MACD stall at 7,437.82.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this analysis from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions from 11/04/25 through Friday; Friday's row is a completed session because Globex does not reopen until Sunday, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the contract's 0.25 tick. The 5-day average stands at 7,591.50, the 9-day at 7,562.25, the 20-day at 7,645.50, the 50-day at 7,717.00, the 100-day at 7,700.25 and the 200-day at 7,450.50. The series carries zero-volume rows in the early months of the contract's life, and those settlements are included in the 200-day window as published.
The 7,583.00 settle sits 8.50 beneath the 5-day average, 20.75 above the 9-day, 62.50 beneath the 20-day, 134.00 beneath the 50-day, 117.25 beneath the 100-day and 132.50 above the 200-day. It is the first settle beneath the 5-day average after four consecutive settles above it, the third consecutive settle above the 9-day, the last settle beneath it on 11/10/26, the 12th consecutive settle beneath the 20-day and the 50-day, the last settle above both on 10/28/26, the seventh consecutive settle beneath the 100-day, the last settle above it on 11/04/26, and the fifth consecutive settle above the 200-day, the last settle beneath it on 11/06/26. The 5-day average rose from Thursday's 7,555.25 as Friday's settle replaced the 7,402.00 settle of 11/06/26.
The 5-day sits above the 9-day and beneath the 20-day. The 5-day sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 7,663.68. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 7,764.72. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 7,683.52, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 7,200.50.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:28 PM ET on Friday; Globex had not reopened, so they rest on Friday's settle, and they are the provider's readings, not the computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 46.70, the 14-day relative strength 45.97 and the 20-day relative strength 46.09.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 61.50 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 52.44 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 58.45 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 55.81 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 18.17 with the 9-day +DI at 18.18 and the 9-day -DI at 18.75, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 16.37 with the 14-day +DI at 17.93 and the 14-day -DI at 20.06, so negative direction leads narrowly on both systems with a low trend reading. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.03 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 24.74 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Friday evening, on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "40% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Strengthening". The snapshot history reads "40% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "16% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 129.81 points and the 14-day average daily range at 148.36 points; the 9-day average true range is 142.60 with a 9-day average daily range of 176.97, and the 20-day average true range is 118.99 with a 20-day average daily range of 129.85. Friday's 150.00 point range sat near the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 129.81 from the 7,583.00 settle frames Monday between 7,453.19 and 7,712.81. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 7,545.69 to 7,620.31 at one deviation, 7,530.24 to 7,635.76 at two and 7,518.38 to 7,647.62 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach. The dealer-positioning dataset publishes an implied one-day move of 0.50 percent and an implied five-day move of 1.48 percent for the index. In this review's judgment Monday's range may contract toward the 20-day average daily range ahead of Tuesday's Nvidia results, with the weekend headlines the main source of a wider day.
Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 7,583.00 settle, the first references are the Pivot Point at 7,590.50 (SPX 7,569.17), the 5-day average at 7,591.50 and the 7,596.75 stall of the 9-day average, followed by the 7,601.00 midpoint of the 4-week range and the 7,610.13 midpoint of the 13-week range. This review's 7,611.25 conversion of the SPX 7,590 directional line, one standard deviation resistance at 7,620.31, this review's 7,621.25 conversion of the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold and its 7,626.25 conversion of the SPX 7,605 modeled gamma-flip level form the next band. Two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76, the 20-day average at 7,645.50, Pivot R1 at 7,661.75 and Friday's 7,669.25 high are the deeper references, with Thursday's 7,674.75 high above them.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 7,573.42 stall of the 14-day stochastic, the 9-day average at 7,562.25 and the 7,561.00 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, followed by the 7,557.84 level at which price would cross the 9-day average. One standard deviation support at 7,545.69, the 7,542.19 retracement from the 13-week low and the 7,535.25 low of the 4:30 PM ET bar form the next band. This review's 7,521.25 conversion of the SPX 7,500 put side support base, Friday's 7,519.25 low and Pivot S1 at 7,511.75 follow, with Tuesday's 7,493.00 low, the 200-day average at 7,450.50 and Pivot S2 at 7,440.50 as the deeper references.
Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar, Rates, and Fed Policy
The US producer price index for October was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar shows a monthly reading of 0.3 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast, an annual reading of 6.5 percent against 6.6 percent, and core readings of 0.3 percent monthly and 5.0 percent annual, on forecast. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.15 after a 5.17 high, up from 5.10, and the dollar index rose 0.23 percent to 103.41. The provider's commentary described hawkish Fed remarks lifting yields to a 4-week high and raising the chance of further tightening, which is attributed commentary. During Friday's session the news feed carried headlines, unconfirmed beyond the feed, that Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Collins and San Francisco Fed President Daly favour further rate increases. The FOMC minutes are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.
4.2 Large-Cap Leadership and Earnings
The Nvidia results conference call is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with results expected around 4:20 PM ET per the same entry. The news feed carried at 4:03 PM ET a report that Nvidia's weekly decline erased more than 573 billion dollars in value and at 2:10 PM ET a report that the company's board is selecting a search firm for the chief executive role. The feed also carried from 12:59 PM ET Microsoft statements that a service outage was a technical issue not related to cyber activity. These are reports carried by the feed.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
At 4:12 PM ET the news feed carried a press report that the President plans to meet the Russian and Chinese presidents next Thursday in Shenzhen. The feed also carried an attack claim on the Saudi east-west pipeline at 3:32 PM ET and an Iranian state media report at 3:47 PM ET of two tankers striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. In this review's interpretation these are weekend gap risks for the index through crude and yields rather than direct drivers of Friday's decline.
4.4 Sector Breadth and Rotation
The semiconductor index's daily record closed at 10,146.32, down 3.43 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.10 percent to 52,347.55 and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.22 percent. In this review's interpretation the Dow's gain against a semiconductor decline describes rotation within the index rather than broad liquidation.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index's daily record closed at 19.30, up 0.60 from 18.70, after a 20.92 high. December WTI fell 0.20 percent, December gold rose 0.03 percent and the ten-year yield index closed at 5.15. The basis between the December contract's 7,583.00 settle and the S&P 500's 7,561.67 cash close is 21.33 points, against 22.85 on Thursday, both measured from each session's settlement and the provider's cash close in the daily records captured at 6:21 PM ET.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows leveraged funds at 125,269 long, up 23,190, against 497,587 short, down 5,096, and asset managers at 1,111,721 long against 183,137 short, as listed and not recomputed. Friday's December volume was 1,874,671 contracts against 1,778,074 on Thursday, per the settlement record. The provider lists 12/18/26 as the December contract's expiration date.
Options positioning
The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section is the edition dated Friday, November 13, 2026 at 5:01 PM ET, and its reference prices are Thursday's closes: the dataset's 7,592 reference equals Thursday's 7,592.40 cash close, which the positioning console also carries as its previous close. Friday's 7,561.67 close is 0.40 percent beneath it. Every level below is read against Friday's 7,561.67 close.
On the index the primary call side ceiling sits at SPX 8,100 (ES 8,121.25), the largest gamma concentration at SPX 8,000 (ES 8,021.25), the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,605 (ES 7,626.25), the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,600 (ES 7,621.25) and the primary put side support base at SPX 7,500. The close sits 538.33 points beneath the ceiling, 438.33 beneath the largest concentration, 43.33 beneath the flip level and 38.33 beneath the threshold, and 61.67 above the put side base. Gamma tilt reads 0.926, gamma notional minus 264.138 million dollars and the dataset's gamma index minus 1.156, with an implied one-day move of 0.50 percent and an implied five-day move of 1.48 percent. The dataset's key strikes are SPX 8,000 (ES 8,021.25), 7,000, 7,700 and 7,600, and its summary block lists resistance at 7,620, 7,650 and 7,700, a directional line at 7,590, bearish beneath and bullish above, marked as updated on 11/12/26, and support at 7,590, 7,500 and 7,400.
The dataset publishes its own December futures pair for each level, carrying the source's 22.73 point offset rather than the measured 21.33 point basis: the ceiling at 8,122.73, the largest concentration at 8,022.73, the modeled gamma-flip level at 7,627.73, the modeled volatility threshold at 7,622.73 and the put side support base at 7,522.73. These are quoted as the source's pairs. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. At the measured basis the SPX 7,500 base converts to 7,521.25, the SPX 7,590 directional line to 7,611.25, the SPX 7,600 threshold to 7,621.25, the SPX 7,605 flip level to 7,626.25 and the SPX 7,700 key strike to 7,721.25, each rounded to the contract's tick.
The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:29 PM ET, carried Thursday's 7,592.4 as its previous close, with call gamma of minus 3.79 billion dollars against put gamma of minus 4.09 billion, a put to call open interest ratio of 1.42, one-month implied volatility of 14.23 percent and one-month realized volatility of 21.60 percent. Its current price field read 7,539.15, which does not match the provider's 7,561.67 close and is not used. The tracking fund's console carries Thursday's 757.19 as its previous close, with its largest gamma concentration at 760, a secondary dealer-positioning level at 763, its call side ceiling at 775 and its put side base at 750.
In this review's interpretation a cash close beneath both modeled levels and beneath the 7,590 directional line, with negative gamma on calls and puts and implied volatility well beneath realized volatility, places the index in the area where hedging may add to moves, with the SPX 7,500 (ES 7,521.25) put side base the nearest support in the dataset. The setup in section 8 sells a rebound toward the conversions of the directional line and the threshold, with its first objective at the Pivot Point.
Forecast
Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday after two days of headline exposure; the last Friday print was the 7,561.00 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, 22.00 beneath the settle. Japan's third-quarter growth estimate is listed for 6:50 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and Chinese industrial output and retail sales for 9:00 PM ET on Sunday by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. In this review's judgment a gap beneath Friday's 7,519.25 low or above the 7,591.50 5-day average is possible at the reopen; expected band roughly 7,525 to 7,610.
London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
Euro area industrial production is listed for 5:00 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath the 7,590.50 Pivot Point, expected band roughly 7,530 to 7,605, with the ten-year yield after Friday's 5.15 close the main cross-asset input.
Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, RTH Open)
The New York manufacturing survey is listed for 8:30 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by New York Fed President Williams for 9:05 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the first directional test. Expected band roughly 7,515 to 7,630, with the 7,610 to 7,620 setup band near the upper edge.
Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by Cleveland Fed President Hammack for 2:15 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 7,515 to 7,635 into the 4:00 PM ET settle, with Pivot S1 at 7,511.75 the lower reference.
Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
Remarks by Richmond Fed President Barkin are listed for 6:10 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Tuesday brings the US retail sales report at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the Nvidia results conference call at 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.
Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 7,530 to 7,615
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 7,510 to 7,640
High-range scenario: 7,460 to 7,690
Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract beneath the 7,591.50 5-day average through the Sunday and London sessions, with a rebound into the 7,610 to 7,620 band after the cash open failing beneath this review's 7,621.25 conversion of the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold, followed by a test of the 7,535.25 post-settle low and Friday's 7,519.25 low into the afternoon. The composite at "40% SELL" with direction "Strengthening", a cash close beneath both modeled levels and the semiconductor decline support that reading, while the settle above the 9-day and 200-day averages, the recovery of 63.75 points from Friday's low and the five-session gain of 2.45 percent argue that the SPX 7,500 (ES 7,521.25) base may hold.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76, which would bring the 20-day average at 7,645.50 and Pivot R1 at 7,661.75 into play; a recovery in chipmakers or softer remarks from the Fed Chair are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a further rise in yields could carry the contract through this review's 7,521.25 conversion of the SPX 7,500 base toward Pivot S1 at 7,511.75 and Tuesday's 7,493.00 low without the rebound the setup needs.
Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The US producer price index for October was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with the readings described in section 4.1, and the December contract settled at 4:00 PM ET at 7,583.00. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson were scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after the 6:19 PM ET capture, and their content was not captured.
Sunday evening brings Japan's third-quarter growth estimate, listed for 6:50 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and Chinese industrial output and retail sales, listed for 9:00 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Euro area industrial production is listed for 5:00 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The New York manufacturing survey is listed for 8:30 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, with a consensus of 19 against 25.50 previously.
Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:05 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Cleveland Fed President Hammack are listed for 2:15 PM ET and by Richmond Fed President Barkin for 6:10 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, the US retail sales report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, the Nvidia results conference call for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the FOMC minutes for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. The positioning note lists the volatility index expiration on 11/18 and monthly options expiration on 11/20, dates that are unconfirmed by the verified forward calendar. The captured calendars carry no scheduled US release for Monday that the verified forward calendar confirms. In this review's judgment the Nvidia results on Tuesday are the first-order event for the index this week, with the 12:00 PM ET remarks by the Fed Chair on Monday, listed by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, the main scheduled item before them.
Primary setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages after a lower high and a lower low, the composite reads "40% SELL" with direction "Strengthening", and the cash index closed beneath both modeled positioning levels and the 7,590 directional line. A rebound into the 7,610 to 7,620 band (SPX 7,588.67 to 7,598.67), around this review's 7,611.25 conversion of the directional line and one standard deviation resistance at 7,620.31, offers a short with a defined risk point above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76. The settle above the 9-day and 200-day averages and the recovery from Friday's low leave room for a rebound that runs through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the modeled levels are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 7,610 to 7,620 (SPX 7,588.67 to 7,598.67)
Stop Loss: 7,640 (SPX 7,618.67; above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76 and this review's 7,626.25 conversion of the SPX 7,605 modeled gamma-flip level)
Target 1 (T1): 7,590 (SPX 7,568.67; at the Pivot Point at 7,590.50)
Target 2 (T2): 7,565 (SPX 7,543.67; above the 7,561.00 post-settle close and the 7,557.84 crossing level)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 7,540 (SPX 7,518.67; above the 7,535.25 post-settle low)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above two standard deviation resistance at 7,635.76 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,620.
Macro override: A recovery in chipmakers ahead of the Nvidia results, a decline in yields or softer remarks from the Fed Chair on Monday would support the index. In that scenario a move through the 7,640 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 20-day average at 7,645.50 becomes the reference, 5.50 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 129.81. SPX equivalents use the measured basis of 21.33 points.
Sources and methodology
Prices, settlements and volume come from the exchange settlement record and the provider's daily series for the December contract (ESZ26). Session timing comes from the 30-minute bar series of Friday's Globex session, from the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar. Moving averages were computed from 260 completed daily settlements; oscillators, the composite read and the pivot ladder are quoted as published, and the pivot ladder was checked against Friday's high, low and settle. Dealer-positioning levels come from an options positioning dataset that uses Thursday's closes as reference prices, read against Friday's cash close, and are converted to futures at the measured 21.33 point basis. Economic-calendar times come from the verified forward calendar unless marked as listed and unconfirmed.
The prior card is graded only on its own levels, against the full Friday session from the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar; no fill is assumed, the result is measured from both edges of the band, and an objective counts only when it traded in a bar after the bar in which the band first traded.
Friday's short reached all three objectives after the report, and Monday's first test is whether a rebound stalls beneath the modeled levels near 7,620.
