S&P Futures 7,615.25: Short 7,650 to 7,660 Into PPI

Executive Summary

The December S&P 500 contract settled at 7,615.25 on Thursday, down 25.25 or 0.33 percent from Wednesday's settle of 7,640.50, after trading between 7,674.75 and 7,572.00, a 102.75 point daily range. The settle finished at 42.1 percent of the range, 43.25 above the low and 59.50 beneath the high, and the range was 0.71 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 143.91 points. Thursday printed a higher high, 3.25 above Wednesday's 7,671.50, and a higher low, 24.50 above Wednesday's 7,547.50, yet settled lower.

The 7,674.75 high is the highest since the 7,738.75 high of 11/05/26, and the 102.75 point range is the narrowest since the 77.75 point range of 11/03/26. Over five sessions the contract is up 232.25 from the 7,383.00 settle of 11/05/26, a gain of 3.15 percent. The settle sits above the 5-day, 9-day and 200-day settlement averages and beneath the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,592.40, down 26.98 or 0.35 percent, so the December contract settled 22.85 above cash.

The session made its low early and its high late in the morning. The 8:00 AM ET bar traded between 7,626.00 and 7,572.00, the session low, and fell 22.75, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar, with a 54.00 point span, the widest of the session; at 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the US President's remark that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and that bar's decline and the remark coincided. From the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract rose 79.00 by the close of the 11:00 AM ET bar, which made the 7,674.75 high, and then gave back 67.50 to a 7,607.25 low in the 3:30 PM ET bar.

The provider's market commentary attributed the decline in the cash indexes to a slump of about 4 percent in Nvidia shares after its chief executive resigned, and to crude's rally and a jump in Treasury yields after the President's comments on Iran, which is attributed commentary. December WTI rose 2.55 percent, the ten-year yield index closed at 5.10, the dollar index rose 0.25 percent and the volatility index's daily record closed at 18.70, up 1.21. In the dealer-positioning dataset, the cash close sits 7.60 beneath the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,600 (ES 7,622.75) and 2.40 above the dataset's directional line at SPX 7,590.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening is "40% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest", unchanged from "40% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 7,650 to 7,660 band (SPX 7,627.15 to 7,637.15), around the 20-day average at 7,651.75 and beneath Thursday's 7,674.75 high, stopped at 7,680, with objectives at 7,630, 7,605 and an extended 7,580. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and in this review's judgment it is the first-order scheduled input for the index on Friday.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Thursday session opened at 7,616.75 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 23.75 beneath Wednesday's settle, after Wednesday's after-close press reports on Nvidia's chief executive. Between the reopen and 3:00 AM ET the preserved 30-minute series on CME_MINI:ESZ2026 held between 7,600.50, in the 6:00 PM ET bar, and 7,628.50, in the 9:00 PM ET bar, and the window closed at 7,608.00.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 7,572.00 and 7,626.00, both in the 8:00 AM ET bar, and closed the window at 7,584.50. The 8:00 AM ET bar fell 22.75 from 7,606.50 to 7,583.75 with a 54.00 point span, the widest of the session, and the 8:30 AM ET bar rose 11.50 to 7,595.00.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 7,581.50, in the 9:30 AM ET bar, and 7,674.75, in the 11:00 AM ET bar. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 36.50 from 7,584.25 to 7,620.75, the largest gain of any bar, with a 51.50 point span, and the 10:30 AM ET bar rose 33.25 to 7,651.75. From the 11:30 AM ET bar the contract drifted lower: the 1:30 PM ET bar fell 15.00 to 7,634.50, and the 3:30 PM ET bar made a 7,607.25 low before closing at 7,616.25. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 7,621.75, 6.50 above the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:23 PM ET, carries an open of 7,620.25, a high of 7,632.50 and a low of 7,619.25 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, not to Thursday's completed session; its previous close field reads 7,615.25. Thursday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 7,772.08 minus Pivot S3 at 7,463.83, divided by three, returns 102.75, and Pivot R2 at 7,723.42 minus Pivot S2 at 7,517.92, divided by two, returns the same 102.75. The published Pivot Point is 7,620.67. Three times that value, less the 7,615.25 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 15,246.76, within the rounding of the published value, which with the 102.75 range solves to a high of 7,674.755 and a low of 7,572.005, or 7,674.75 and 7,572.00 at the contract's tick.

That pair, with the 7,615.25 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 7,616.75 open, 7,674.75 high, 7,572.00 low and 7,615.25 settle.

2.2 Daily Structure

Thursday printed a higher high and a higher low against Wednesday and settled 25.25 lower, after Wednesday's 96.25 point gain. Settlements over the last six sessions read 7,383.00, 7,402.00, 7,574.25, 7,544.25, 7,640.50 and 7,615.25, so the contract has recovered 232.25 of the 337.50 points lost from the 7,720.50 settle of 11/04/26 to the 7,383.00 settle of 11/05/26.

The provider publishes 7,905.00 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 7,879.75 as the one-month high and 7,322.25 as the one-month and 13-week low. The settle sits 1.62 above the 7,613.63 level published as the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range and 51.53 beneath the 7,666.78 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 4-week high, which Thursday's high exceeded before the settle returned beneath it.

In this review's interpretation a settle at 42.1 percent of a range that made a higher high describes a rejected advance rather than a reversal: the contract held a higher low and stayed above the 5-day and 9-day averages, but the afternoon returned the morning gain and left the settle beneath the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

The 102.75 point range was the narrowest since the 77.75 point range of 11/03/26, after 124.00 on Wednesday. In the preserved 30-minute series three bars, at 8:00 AM, 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM ET, spanned more than 40 points from high to low, and two bars, at 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM ET, rose more than 30 points from open to close.

The swing sequence shows a 7,746.25 high on 11/04 and a 7,322.25 low on 11/06, then higher lows at 7,363.75 on 11/09, 7,493.00 on 11/10, 7,547.50 on Wednesday and 7,572.00 on Thursday, the fourth consecutive higher low. The highs read 7,600.50 on 11/09, 7,598.75 on 11/10, 7,671.50 on Wednesday and 7,674.75 on Thursday.

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/02/26, ran 123.00, 77.75, 256.25, 392.75, 146.75, 236.75, 105.75, 124.00 and 102.75. The published grid places the 3-10 day crossover stall at 7,623.18, the 18-day average crossing level at 7,637.63, the 50 percent retracement of the 4-week range at 7,601.00 and the 9-day average stall at 7,574.50.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed for this analysis from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 11/04/25 through Thursday; the partial row dated Friday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the contract's 0.25 tick. The 200-day window contains 24 zero-volume rows, which are retained as published settlements. The 5-day average stands at 7,555.25, the 9-day at 7,561.25, the 20-day at 7,651.75, the 50-day at 7,721.75, the 100-day at 7,699.50 and the 200-day at 7,448.00.

Against those rounded values the 7,615.25 settle sits 60.00 above the 5-day average and 54.00 above the 9-day, 36.50 beneath the 20-day, 106.50 beneath the 50-day and 84.25 beneath the 100-day, and 167.25 above the 200-day. It is the fourth consecutive settle above the 5-day average, the last beneath it on 11/06/26, the second above the 9-day, the last beneath it on 11/10/26, the 11th consecutive settle beneath both the 20-day and 50-day, the last above them on 10/28/26, the sixth beneath the 100-day, the last above it on 11/04/26, and the fourth above the 200-day, the last beneath it on 11/06/26.

The 5-day average sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 7,683.83. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 7,768.64. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 7,677.00, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 7,196.75. The 5-day rose from Wednesday's 7,508.75 as Thursday's settle replaced the 7,383.00 settle of 11/05/26.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:23 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not the computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 49.11, the 14-day relative strength 47.59 and the 20-day relative strength 47.32.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 69.10 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 58.92 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 55.86 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 48.70 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 20.25 with the 9-day +DI at 20.58 and the 9-day -DI at 16.58, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 17.19 with the 14-day +DI at 19.54 and the 14-day -DI at 18.70, so positive direction leads narrowly on both systems with low trend strength. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.07 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 24.94 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening, on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "40% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "40% SELL" for the prior session, "72% SELL" a week ago and "16% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 128.25 points and the 14-day average daily range at 143.91 points; the 9-day average true range is 141.67 with a 9-day average daily range of 173.97, and the 20-day average true range is 117.36 with a 20-day average daily range of 129.02. Thursday's 102.75 point range was 0.71 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 128.25 from the 7,615.25 settle frames Friday between 7,487.00 and 7,743.50. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 7,521.93 to 7,708.57 at one deviation, 7,483.27 to 7,747.23 at two and 7,453.61 to 7,776.89 at three. The dataset's implied one-day move for the index is 0.60 percent, which on the 7,592.40 cash close is 45.55 points. These describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and in this review's judgment a range between the implied move and the 14-day average is the most likely outcome around the producer price index.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 7,615.25 settle, the first references are the Pivot Point at 7,620.67, the 4:30 PM ET bar close at 7,621.75 and the 7,622.75 conversion of the SPX 7,600 modeled volatility threshold, followed by the 7,623.18 crossover stall and the 7,637.63 crossing level. The 7,651.19 published target price, the 20-day average at 7,651.75 and the 7,659.42 projection for the 14-day relative strength at 50 form the next band, with the 7,666.78 retracement, Pivot R1 at 7,669.33 and Thursday's 7,674.75 high above it. The 100-day average at 7,699.50, the 50-day at 7,721.75, the 7,722.75 conversion of the SPX 7,700 key strike and Pivot R2 at 7,723.42 are the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range, the 7,612.75 conversion of the dataset's SPX 7,590 directional line and the 7,607.25 low of the 3:30 PM ET bar. The 7,601.00 midpoint of the 4-week range and the 7,597.75 conversion of the SPX 7,575 modeled gamma-flip level form the next band, followed by the 9-day average stall at 7,574.50, Thursday's 7,572.00 low and Pivot S1 at 7,566.58. The 9-day and 5-day averages at 7,561.25 and 7,555.25, the 7,522.75 conversion of the SPX 7,500 primary put side support base and Pivot S2 at 7,517.92 are the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Dollar, Rates, and Fed Policy

The ten-year yield index closed at 5.10 after a 5.12 high, against 4.98 on Tuesday, the last session in which the cash Treasury market traded before Wednesday's holiday, and the dollar index's daily record closed at 103.17, up 0.25 percent. The provider's commentary reported that three regional Fed presidents favoured additional rate hikes, that weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 against 194,000 expected and that existing home sales fell to 3.75 million against 3.85 million expected, which is attributed commentary. The news feed carried an investment-bank note arguing that the Fed missed an opportunity to hike. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a monthly forecast of 0.4 percent against 1.3 percent previously, a figure that is unconfirmed.

4.2 Large-Cap Leadership and Earnings

The provider's commentary reported that Nvidia's chief executive resigned on Thursday, that the chief financial officer was named interim chief executive and that the shares fell about 4 percent, which is attributed commentary, and the equities feed carried press reports through the afternoon on lawmakers' scrutiny of the company. After the close, the news feed carried Cisco's first-quarter adjusted earnings of 1.40 dollars a share against 1.32 and revenue of 18.50 billion dollars against 18.13 billion, and Applied Materials' fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 4.16 dollars against 4.06. Nvidia's quarterly results call is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop

At 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the President's statement that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and the 8:00 AM ET bar made the session low; the two coincided. From 2:02 PM ET the feed carried Iranian state media reports of an attack on Sirik in Hormozgan province, and from 3:28 PM ET the President's remarks that he would possibly use military force in Iran if needed and would consider a week-long campaign against Cuba. December WTI rose 2.55 percent to 88.74 and Brent's January contract 3.30 percent to 95.82. In this review's interpretation the Iran headlines reached equities through crude and yields on Thursday.

4.4 Sector Breadth and Rotation

The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.35 percent, the Dow 0.36 percent, the Nasdaq-100 0.30 percent and the semiconductor index 0.54 percent, so the decline was broad and modest rather than concentrated. The equities feed carried items on Super Micro, Microsoft's network traffic and Alphabet's new search model during the session. No sector breadth table was captured for this analysis, so no further rotation claim is made.

4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility

The volatility index's daily record closed at 18.70, up 1.21 from 17.49, after trading between 17.38 and 19.34. December gold fell 2.88 percent, silver 3.72 percent and December WTI rose 2.55 percent. The December contract settled 22.85 above the cash close, measured as the 7,615.25 settle less the 7,592.40 cash close, both Thursday completed-session daily records, against 21.12 on Wednesday.

4.6 Institutional Positioning

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows leveraged funds at 125,269 long, up 23,190, against 497,587 short, down 5,096, and asset managers at 1,111,721 long against 183,137 short, as listed and not recomputed. Thursday's December volume was 1,724,815 contracts against 1,496,761 on Wednesday, per the settlement record. The provider lists 12/18/26 as the December contract's expiration date.

Options positioning

The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section uses Wednesday's closes as its reference prices: the dataset's 7,619 reference equals Wednesday's 7,619.38 cash close, which the positioning console also carries as its previous close, and the provider's 7,592.40 Thursday close is 0.35 percent beneath it. Every level below is read against Thursday's 7,592.40 close.

On the index the primary call side ceiling sits at SPX 8,100 (ES 8,122.75), the largest gamma concentration at SPX 8,000 (ES 8,022.75), the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,600 (ES 7,622.75), the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,575 (ES 7,597.75) and the primary put side support base at SPX 7,500. The close sits 507.60 points beneath the ceiling, 407.60 beneath the largest concentration and 7.60 beneath the threshold, and 17.40 above the flip level and 92.40 above the put side base. Gamma tilt reads 1.035, gamma notional 127.353 million dollars and the dataset's gamma index 0.536, with an implied one-day move of 0.60 percent and an implied five-day move of 1.48 percent. The dataset's key strikes are SPX 8,000 (ES 8,022.75), 7,000, 7,700 and 7,600, and its summary block lists resistance at 7,600 and 7,700, a directional line at 7,590, bearish beneath and bullish above, marked as updated on 11/12/26, and support at 7,500 and 7,300.

The dataset publishes its own December futures pair for each level, carrying the source's 21.42 point offset rather than the measured 22.85 point basis: the ceiling at 8,121.42, the largest concentration at 8,021.42, the modeled volatility threshold at 7,621.42, the modeled gamma-flip level at 7,596.42 and the put side support base at 7,521.42. These are quoted as the source's pairs. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. At the measured basis the SPX 7,500 base converts to 7,522.75, the SPX 7,575 flip level to 7,597.75, the SPX 7,590 directional line to 7,612.75, the SPX 7,600 threshold to 7,622.75 and the SPX 7,700 key strike to 7,722.75, each rounded to the contract's tick.

The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:23 PM ET, carried Wednesday's 7,619.38 as its previous close, with call gamma of minus 4.13 billion dollars against put gamma of minus 3.99 billion, a put to call open interest ratio of 1.42, one-month implied volatility of 13.67 percent and one-month realized volatility of 21.59 percent. Its current price field read 7,599.45, which does not match the provider's 7,592.40 close and is not used. The tracking fund closed at 757.69, down 0.28 percent, with its largest gamma concentration and put side support base both at 760, a secondary dealer-positioning level at 763 and its call side ceiling at 775.

In this review's interpretation a cash close 7.60 points beneath the SPX 7,600 (ES 7,622.75) threshold and 2.40 above the 7,590 directional line, with implied volatility well beneath realized volatility, places the index at the dataset's decision area, where hedging may add to moves beneath the threshold. The setup in section 8 sells a rebound toward the 20-day average at 7,651.75, beneath Thursday's high, with its first two objectives around the 7,622.75 conversion of the threshold and the 7,597.75 conversion of the flip level.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday with the overview showing a 7,620.25 open, 5.00 above the settle, after the Cisco and Applied Materials results. Bias neutral around the Pivot Point at 7,620.67, expected band roughly 7,590 to 7,650.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)

Euro area growth data are listed for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral beneath the 20-day average at 7,651.75, expected band roughly 7,585 to 7,650.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, RTH Open)

The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, ahead of the 9:30 AM ET cash open, and remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 7,560 to 7,680, with the 7,650 to 7,660 setup band in the upper part.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the 4:00 PM ET cash close sets the weekly close. Expected band roughly 7,570 to 7,670.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, after the close. Globex does not reopen on Friday evening; the next session opens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of headline exposure on Nvidia, Iran and Fed commentary separate Friday's settle from the reopen. In this review's judgment a gap through Pivot R1 at 7,669.33 or Pivot S1 at 7,566.58 is possible on a weekend headline.

Expected Range (Friday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 7,585 to 7,655

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 7,560 to 7,680

High-range scenario: 7,520 to 7,725

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 7,566.58 and Pivot R1 at 7,669.33 into the producer price index, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a rebound toward the 7,650 to 7,660 band that stalls beneath Thursday's 7,674.75 high weighted above a settle through it. The settle beneath the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages, the composite at "40% SELL" and the afternoon decline from the 11:00 AM ET high support that reading, while four consecutive higher lows and a settle above the 200-day argue against a deep decline.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Thursday's 7,674.75 high and Pivot R1 at 7,669.33, which would bring the 100-day average at 7,699.50 and the 7,722.75 conversion of the SPX 7,700 key strike into play; a soft producer price report that lowers yields is the input most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a cash move beneath the SPX 7,575 (ES 7,597.75) modeled gamma-flip level could carry the contract through Thursday's 7,572.00 low toward the 7,522.75 conversion of the put side base without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Thursday's releases are complete. Weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, listed by the news-feed calendar for 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET on Thursday, unconfirmed, were reported by the provider's commentary at 200,000 claims against 194,000 expected and 3.75 million home sales against 3.85 million expected, which is attributed commentary. After the close, the news feed carried Cisco's results at its 4:05 PM ET listing and Applied Materials' results. The December contract settled at 7,615.25 and the cash index closed at 7,592.40.

Friday opens with euro area growth data listed for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a core monthly forecast of 0.3 percent against 0.7 percent previously, a figure that is unconfirmed. Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:10 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Next week, retail sales are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and Nvidia's results call for 5:00 PM ET that day, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's judgment the first-order input for the index on Friday is the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled at 42.1 percent of a range that made a higher high, beneath the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages, after giving back 67.50 points from its 11:00 AM ET high, and the composite reads "40% SELL". A rebound into the 7,650 to 7,660 band, around the 20-day average at 7,651.75 and the 7,651.19 target price, offers a short with a defined risk point above Thursday's 7,674.75 high. Four consecutive higher lows and a settle above the 5-day, 9-day and 200-day averages leave room for a rebound that runs through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds toward the 20-day average are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 7,650 to 7,660

Stop Loss: 7,680 (above Thursday's 7,674.75 high and beneath the 7,682.39 retracement from the 13-week high)

Target 1 (T1): 7,630 (above the 7,622.75 conversion of the SPX 7,600 threshold)

Target 2 (T2): 7,605 (beneath the 7,607.25 low of the 3:30 PM ET bar, above the 7,601.00 midpoint of the 4-week range)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 7,580 (above the 7,574.50 average stall and Thursday's 7,572.00 low)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Thursday's 7,674.75 high negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,660.

Macro override: A soft producer price report that pulls yields lower, or a positive turn in the Nvidia leadership story, would lift the index. In that scenario a move through the 7,680 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 100-day average at 7,699.50 becomes the reference, 19.50 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 128.25.