Gold Futures 3,886.3: Short 3,920 to 3,930 at Friday's High

Executive Summary

The December gold contract settled at 3,886.3 on Friday, up 1.0 or 0.03 percent from Thursday's settle of 3,885.3, after trading between 3,927.2 and 3,871.1, a 56.1 point daily range. The settle finished 15.2 above the low and 40.9 beneath the high. Friday printed a lower high, 78.7 beneath Thursday's 4,005.9, and a higher low, 14.4 above Thursday's 3,856.7, so the day sat inside Thursday's range, and the 56.1 point range was the narrowest since the 53.1 point range of 10/26/26, against a published 14-day average daily range of 98.3 points.

Friday's settle ended a run of three consecutive lower settles and sits 1.0 above Thursday's 3,885.3, the lowest settle of the 260 sessions dated 11/03/25 through 11/13/26. Over five sessions the contract is down 188.6 from the 4,074.9 settle of 11/06/26, a decline of 4.63 percent, and the settle sits beneath all six settlement averages from the 5-day to the 200-day, which are stacked in descending order.

The session high of 3,927.2 printed in the 10:30 PM ET bar on Thursday evening, after the reopen, and the contract then drifted through the London morning. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which spanned the US producer price index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, was the widest of the session at 33.8 points, trading between 3,909.9 and 3,876.1. The session low of 3,871.1 printed in the 11:00 AM ET bar, and the contract settled at 3,886.3 at 1:30 PM ET. The news feed showed a monthly producer price reading of 0.3 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast and an annual reading of 6.5 percent against 6.6 percent.

The dollar index's daily record closed at 103.41, up 0.23 percent, and the ten-year yield index at 5.15 after a 5.17 high. The provider's market commentary attributed the dollar's strength to hawkish remarks from three regional Fed presidents and described a 4-week high in the ten-year yield, which is attributed commentary. The news feed carried a 3:30 PM ET headline describing a weekly rout in gold as high US yields fuel rate hike bets, and gold's five-session decline of 4.63 percent is the measured counterpart.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Friday evening is "100% SELL", with strength "Strong" and direction "Strongest", unchanged from "100% SELL" a session earlier, against "32% SELL" a week ago and "64% SELL" a month ago. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 3,920 to 3,930 band, around Friday's 3,927.2 high and above Pivot R1 at 3,918.6, stopped at 3,955, with objectives at 3,895, 3,865 and an extended 3,835. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the next print, and in this review's judgment the dollar and yields remain the first-order input for gold into Monday.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Friday session opened at 3,883.3 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.0 beneath Thursday's settle. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the 30-minute series for the December contract held between 3,879.1, in the 6:00 PM ET bar, and 3,927.2, in the 10:30 PM ET bar, which carried the session high. The 8:00 PM ET bar rose 24.6 to 3,914.0, the largest gain of any bar in the session, and the 12:30 AM ET bar fell 13.2 across a 30.9 point span. The window closed at 3,901.6 in the 2:30 AM ET bar.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open the contract traded between 3,876.1 and 3,909.9, both in the 8:30 AM ET bar, and closed the window at 3,892.0. The 8:00 AM ET bar fell 8.8 to 3,884.3, and the 8:30 AM ET bar, which spans the producer price index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, spanned 33.8 points, the widest of any bar in the session, and closed at 3,885.1.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 3,871.1, in the 11:00 AM ET bar, which carried the session low, and 3,903.5, in the 9:30 AM ET bar. The 10:00 AM ET bar fell 16.6 to 3,881.3, the largest decline of any bar in the session, and the 10:30 AM ET bar eased a further 4.4 to 3,876.9. From the 11:00 AM ET bar the contract held between 3,871.1 and 3,894.6, and the settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET at 3,886.3. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 3,887.6, 1.3 above the settle.

Because Friday's session is not followed by a Globex reopen until Sunday, the provider's overview, read at 6:28 PM ET, carries Friday's own open of 3,883.3, high of 3,927.2 and low of 3,871.1, with a previous close field of 3,885.3. The published pivot ladder was checked against those values with the outer pairs. Pivot R3 at 3,974.7 minus Pivot S3 at 3,806.4, divided by three, returns 56.1, and Pivot R2 at 3,951.0 minus Pivot S2 at 3,838.8, divided by two, returns the same 56.1. The published Pivot Point is 3,894.9. Three times that value, less the 3,886.3 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 7,798.4, within the rounding of the published value, which with the 56.1 range solves to a high of 3,927.25 and a low of 3,871.15, or 3,927.2 and 3,871.1 at the published one-decimal rounding.

That pair, with the 3,886.3 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and the overview's day high and low, the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series carry the same 3,927.2 high and 3,871.1 low.

2.2 Daily Structure

Friday printed an inside day, a lower high and a higher low against Thursday, and settled 1.0 higher in the lower third of its range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 4,074.9, 4,114.5, 4,030.2, 4,000.5, 3,885.3 and 3,886.3, so the contract has fallen 228.2 from the 4,114.5 settle of 11/09/26 and held Thursday's level on Friday.

The provider publishes 3,856.7, Thursday's low, as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low, with 5,781.8 as the 52-week high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 4,220.4 as the one-month high. The settle sits 29.6 above that low and 109.3 beneath the 3,995.6 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 4-week low.

In this review's interpretation an inside day that settles flat after a 2.88 percent decline describes a pause at the 52-week low rather than a reversal, with no close above Pivot R1 and every settlement average still overhead.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

The 56.1 point range followed ranges of 135.4 on Tuesday, 85.1 on Wednesday and 149.2 on Thursday. In the preserved 30-minute series three bars spanned more than 30 points, at 8:30 AM ET, 8:00 PM ET and 12:30 AM ET, and one bar, at 8:00 PM ET, moved more than 20 points from open to close.

The swing sequence shows highs of 4,157.7 on 11/09/26, 4,156.2 on Tuesday, 4,074.7 on Wednesday, 4,005.9 on Thursday and 3,927.2 on Friday, four consecutive lower highs. The lows read 4,062.5 on 11/09/26, 4,020.8 on Tuesday, 3,989.6 on Wednesday and 3,856.7 on Thursday before Friday's higher low at 3,871.1.

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/03/26, ran 77.6, 153.0, 88.8, 81.1, 95.2, 135.4, 85.1, 149.2 and 56.1. The published grid places the 9-18 day average crossover at 3,895.0, the 9-day average stall at 3,940.4, the 3-10 day crossover stall at 3,806.3 and the target price at 3,828.2.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions from 11/03/25 through Friday; Friday's row is a completed session because Globex does not reopen until Sunday, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 3,983.4, the 9-day at 4,013.2, the 20-day at 4,035.2, the 50-day at 4,181.5, the 100-day at 4,237.1 and the 200-day at 4,535.8.

The 3,886.3 settle sits 97.1 beneath the 5-day average, 126.9 beneath the 9-day, 148.9 beneath the 20-day, 295.2 beneath the 50-day, 350.8 beneath the 100-day and 649.5 beneath the 200-day. It is the fourth consecutive settle beneath the 5-day and the 20-day averages, the last settle above both on 11/09/26, the third consecutive settle beneath the 9-day, the last settle above it on 11/10/26, the 38th consecutive settle beneath the 50-day, the last settle above it on 09/22/26, the 40th consecutive settle beneath the 100-day, the last settle above it on 09/18/26, and the 55th consecutive settle beneath the 200-day, the last settle above it on 08/27/26. The 5-day average fell from Thursday's 4,021.1 as Friday's settle replaced the 4,074.9 settle of 11/06/26.

The averages are stacked in descending order from the 200-day to the 5-day. The 5-day sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 4,052.49. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,279.05. The 50-day sits beneath the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged higher, at 4,292.66, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,834.50.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:28 PM ET on Friday; Globex had not reopened, so they rest on Friday's settle, and they are the provider's readings, not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 33.38, the 14-day relative strength 35.92 and the 20-day relative strength 37.57.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 9.83 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 9.83 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 20.96 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 38.65 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 27.60 with the 9-day +DI at 15.07 and the 9-day -DI at 32.65, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 25.61 with the 14-day +DI at 15.39 and the 14-day -DI at 30.35, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 27.52 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 27.57 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Friday evening, on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "100% SELL", with signal strength "Strong" and direction "Strongest". The snapshot history reads "100% SELL" for the prior session, "32% SELL" a week ago and "64% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium group "Average: 100% SELL" and the long group "Average: 100% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 91.7 points and the 14-day average daily range at 98.3 points; the 9-day average true range is 94.7 with a 9-day average daily range of 102.4, and the 20-day average true range is 91.0 with a 20-day average daily range of 87.8. Friday's 56.1 point range sat inside all three.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 91.7 from the 3,886.3 settle frames Monday between 3,794.6 and 3,978.0. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 3,787.9 to 3,984.7 at one deviation, 3,747.2 to 4,025.4 at two and 3,715.9 to 4,056.7 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach. In this review's judgment Friday's contraction after Thursday's 149.2 point range is more likely to be followed by a wider Monday range, with the dollar and yields the inputs that decide its direction.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 3,886.3 settle, the first references are the 3,887.6 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, the 3,894.9 Pivot Point and the 3,895.0 crossing of the 9-18 day averages. The 3,916.9 projection for the 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20 percent, Pivot R1 at 3,918.6 and Friday's 3,927.2 high form the next band, followed by the 3,940.4 stall of the 9-day average, the 3,947.0 stochastic projection and Pivot R2 at 3,951.0. Pivot R3 at 3,974.7, one standard deviation resistance at 3,984.7 and the 5-day average at 3,983.4 are the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit Friday's 3,871.1 low and Pivot S1 at 3,862.5, with Thursday's 3,856.7 low, the published 52-week low, just beneath. Pivot S2 at 3,838.8 and the 3,828.2 target price published by the provider form the next band, followed by Pivot S3 at 3,806.4 and the 3,806.3 stall of the 3-10 day crossover. One standard deviation support at 3,787.9, the 3,758.7 projection for the 14-day relative strength at 30 percent and two standard deviation support at 3,747.2 are the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Dollar and Real Yields

The dollar index's daily record closed at 103.41, up 0.24 points or 0.23 percent, after a 103.44 high, and the provider's market commentary described a new 1.5-year high, which is attributed commentary. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.15 after a 5.17 high, up from 5.10 on Thursday, and the commentary described a 4-week high in the ten-year yield of 5.172 percent, attributed commentary. Gold held flat while the dollar and yields rose, after falling 2.88 percent on Thursday as they rose. In this review's interpretation Friday's flat settle reflects selling exhaustion near the 52-week low rather than a change in the rates channel.

4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy

The US producer price index for October was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar shows a monthly reading of 0.3 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast, an annual reading of 6.5 percent against 6.6 percent, and core readings of 0.3 percent monthly and 5.0 percent annual, on forecast. During Friday's session the news feed carried headlines, unconfirmed beyond the feed, that Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned of more aggressive hikes as inflation spreads, that Boston Fed President Collins backed careful rate hikes and that San Francisco Fed President Daly sees more rate hikes. The FOMC minutes are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop

After the 1:30 PM ET settle the news feed carried a Houthi claim at 3:32 PM ET of an attack on the Saudi east-west pipeline and an Iranian state media report at 3:47 PM ET that two oil tankers struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The 4:30 PM ET bar rose 8.5 to 3,887.6; those reports and that bar coincided, and the move was small against the session's range. In this review's interpretation the Gulf reports have not restored a haven bid that outweighs the rates channel, but a weekend escalation remains the main upside risk for gold at the Sunday reopen.

4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)

No central-bank purchase data or Chinese demand figures were captured on Friday. Chinese industrial output and retail sales are listed for 9:00 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The gold tracking fund's positioning console shows a current price of 356, up 0.30 percent from its 354.94 previous close, with call volume of 199.54 thousand contracts against put volume of 317.29 thousand. No fund holdings figure was captured, so no flow conclusion is drawn. The provider lists the December contract's first notice date as 11/30/26.

4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset

December WTI settled at 88.56, down 0.20 percent, and Brent's January contract at 95.84, up 0.02, while silver's December contract fell 1.89 percent to 49.121. The gold to silver ratio rose to 79.12 from 77.61 as silver fell and gold held. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.40 percent and the semiconductor index 3.43 percent. In this review's interpretation the silver decline on a flat gold day points to weaker industrial metals demand alongside the equity selloff rather than a gold-specific move.

4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 122,283 long, down 225, against 18,669 short, up 1,723, as listed and not recomputed, so speculative length was large going into the decline. Friday's December volume was 151,010 contracts against 229,442 on Thursday, per the settlement record. February's premium over December held at 32.0, with February settling at 3,918.3.

Options positioning

This section uses the gold tracking fund's options positioning qualitatively only; it is never translated into futures prices, because the fund tracks bullion at roughly one eleventh of the futures price with a fee drag and has no clean basis. The fund's positioning console, read at 6:30 PM ET, shows a current price of 356 against a 354.94 previous close, a 0.30 percent gain, with call gamma of minus 346.62 million dollars and put gamma of minus 619.1 million dollars. Put to call open interest stands at 0.53, one-month implied volatility at 23.81 percent against one-month realized volatility of 27.72 percent, and the implied volatility rank at 23.50 percent.

The fund's console places its largest gamma concentration and its primary put side support base together at 350, a secondary dealer-positioning level at 370 and its primary call side ceiling at 400, in the fund's own price terms, with the largest gamma expiration on 11/20/2026. The fund's current price sits 6 above the 350 put side base. In this review's interpretation negative gamma on both calls and puts suggests that hedging may add to moves rather than damp them, and a put side base close beneath the price makes the 350 area a reference the fund's options market is watching; both are inferences about the fund's options, not measured futures levels. The console's high and low volatility point fields were not captured and are excluded. No level in section 3 or section 8 comes from this section.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday after two days of headline exposure; the last Friday print was the 3,887.6 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar. Japan's third-quarter growth estimate is listed for 6:50 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and Chinese industrial output and retail sales for 9:00 PM ET on Sunday by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. In this review's judgment a gap above Pivot R1 at 3,918.6 on a weekend Gulf escalation, or beneath Thursday's 3,856.7 low on further dollar strength, is possible at the reopen; expected band roughly 3,860 to 3,925.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)

Euro area industrial production is listed for 5:00 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath Pivot R1 at 3,918.6, expected band roughly 3,850 to 3,920, with the dollar index's direction after Friday's 103.41 close the main input.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, US Open)

The New York manufacturing survey is listed for 8:30 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by New York Fed President Williams for 9:05 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the first directional test for the related markets. Expected band roughly 3,840 to 3,930, with the 3,920 to 3,930 setup band at the upper edge.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)

Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by Cleveland Fed President Hammack for 2:15 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The settle at 1:30 PM ET fixes the reference; expected band roughly 3,840 to 3,925, with Pivot S2 at 3,838.8 the lower reference.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)

Remarks by Richmond Fed President Barkin are listed for 6:10 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Tuesday brings the US retail sales report at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the FOMC minutes follow at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

Expected Range (Monday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 3,855 to 3,920

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 3,835 to 3,935

High-range scenario: 3,800 to 3,975

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract beneath Pivot R1 at 3,918.6 and Friday's 3,927.2 high through the Sunday and London sessions, with a rebound into the 3,920 to 3,930 band failing before the 3,940.4 stall of the 9-day average, followed by a test of Friday's 3,871.1 low and Thursday's 3,856.7 low into the US afternoon. The composite at "100% SELL" with strength "Strong" and direction "Strongest", four consecutive lower highs and a settle beneath every settlement average support that reading, while Friday's inside day and the 14-day stochastic %K at 20.96 percent argue that the decline may slow near the 52-week low.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R2 at 3,951.0, which would bring the 3,983.4 5-day average and one standard deviation resistance at 3,984.7 into play; a weekend escalation in the Gulf or a reversal in the dollar after Friday's 1.5-year high, attributed to the provider's commentary, are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a firmer dollar and yields on Monday could carry the contract through Thursday's 3,856.7 low toward Pivot S2 at 3,838.8 and the 3,828.2 target price without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Friday's releases are complete. The US producer price index for October was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with the readings described in section 4.2, and December gold settled at 1:30 PM ET at 3,886.3. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson were scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after the close of Friday's session, and their content is not covered here.

Sunday evening brings Japan's third-quarter growth estimate, listed for 6:50 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and Chinese industrial output and retail sales, listed for 9:00 PM ET on Sunday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Euro area industrial production is listed for 5:00 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The New York manufacturing survey is listed for 8:30 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, with a consensus of 19 against 25.50 previously.

Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:05 AM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Cleveland Fed President Hammack are listed for 2:15 PM ET and by Richmond Fed President Barkin for 6:10 PM ET on Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Later in the week, the US retail sales report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, industrial production for 9:15 AM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the FOMC minutes for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 18, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. The captured calendars carry no scheduled US release for Monday that the verified forward calendar confirms. In this review's judgment the 12:00 PM ET remarks by the Fed Chair, listed by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, are the first-order scheduled item for gold on Monday, with weekend Gulf headlines the main unscheduled risk.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled flat after an inside day near the 52-week low, with four consecutive lower highs, a composite reading "100% SELL" with strength "Strong" and a settle beneath every settlement average. A rebound into the 3,920 to 3,930 band, around Friday's 3,927.2 high and above Pivot R1 at 3,918.6, offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R2 at 3,951.0. Friday's flat settle and the low stochastic readings mean the decline may pause, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds toward Friday's high are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 3,920 to 3,930

Stop Loss: 3,955 (above Pivot R2 at 3,951.0 and the 3,940.4 stall of the 9-day average)

Target 1 (T1): 3,895 (at the Pivot Point at 3,894.9)

Target 2 (T2): 3,865 (above Pivot S1 at 3,862.5 and Thursday's 3,856.7 low)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 3,835 (beneath Pivot S2 at 3,838.8)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 3,951.0 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 3,930.

Macro override: A weekend escalation in the Gulf that restores a haven bid, a reversal lower in the dollar, or softer remarks from the Fed Chair on Monday would support gold. In that scenario a move through the 3,955 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 3,983.4 5-day average becomes the reference, 28.4 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 91.7.