Gold Futures 3,885.3: Short 3,915 to 3,925 at the Pivot

Executive Summary

The December gold contract settled at 3,885.3 on Thursday, down 115.2 or 2.88 percent from Wednesday's settle of 4,000.5, after trading between 4,005.9 and 3,856.7, a 149.2 point daily range. The settle finished at 19.2 percent of the range, 28.6 above the low and 120.6 beneath the high, and the range was 1.52 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 98.1 points. Thursday printed a lower high, 68.8 beneath Wednesday's 4,074.7, and a lower low, 132.9 beneath Wednesday's 3,989.6, and it was the third consecutive lower settle.

The 2.88 percent decline is the largest since the 3.29 percent decline of 10/30/26, and the 149.2 point range is the widest since the 153.0 point range of 11/04/26. The 3,885.3 settle is the lowest December-contract settle in the 259 completed sessions dated 11/03/25 through 11/12/26, and the provider now publishes Thursday's 3,856.7 low as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. Over five sessions the contract is down 228.2 from the 4,113.5 settle of 11/05/26, a decline of 5.55 percent. The settle sits beneath all six settlement averages from the 5-day to the 200-day.

The decline came in two steps. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the contract held between 3,960.6 and 4,005.9, and from 3:00 AM ET it fell to 3,907.9 by the 9:00 AM ET bar close; the 8:00 AM ET bar fell 26.4 with a 44.5 point span, the widest of the session. At 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the US President's remark that the United States does not need a deal with Iran; that bar's decline and the remark coincided. The 9:30 AM ET bar then fell 33.8, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar, and the 10:00 AM ET bar made the 3,856.7 low. From the 10:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 3,863.4 and 3,892.7, and the settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET.

The provider's market commentary said the dollar index climbed to a fresh 1.5-year high after crude and Treasury yields rose on the President's comments, and that Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly all favoured additional rate hikes, which is attributed commentary. The dollar index's daily record closed at 103.17, up 0.25 percent, the ten-year yield index closed at 5.10, December WTI rose 2.55 percent and silver's December contract fell 3.72 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening is "100% SELL" with strength "Strong" and direction "Strongest", against "56% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 3,915 to 3,925 band, around the Pivot Point at 3,916.0, stopped at 3,955, with objectives at 3,885, 3,850 and an extended 3,815. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and in this review's judgment it is the first-order scheduled input for gold on Friday through its effect on Fed hike pricing and the dollar.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Thursday session opened at 3,994.0 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 6.5 beneath Wednesday's settle. Between the reopen and 3:00 AM ET the 30-minute series for the December contract held between 3,960.6 and 4,005.9, with the session high of 4,005.9 in the 8:00 PM ET bar and the window low of 3,960.6 in the 2:30 AM ET bar, and the window closed at 3,970.5.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open the contract traded between 3,887.7 and 3,970.4 and closed the window at 3,907.9. The 3:00 AM ET bar fell 18.5, the 8:00 AM ET bar fell 26.4 from 3,942.2 to 3,915.8 with a 44.5 point span, the widest of any bar in the session, and the 8:30 AM ET bar fell 19.0 to 3,894.9. The 9:00 AM ET bar rose 13.2 to 3,907.9, the largest gain of any bar in the session.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 3,856.7 and 3,909.4. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 33.8 from 3,908.1 to 3,874.3, the largest decline of any bar, with a 38.7 point span, and the 10:00 AM ET bar made the session low of 3,856.7 and closed at 3,864.6. From the 10:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 3,863.4 and 3,892.7, a 29.3 point band, and the settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET at 3,885.3. The 3:30 PM ET bar fell 9.4 to 3,879.5 and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 3,881.7, 3.6 beneath the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:22 PM ET, carries an open of 3,883.3, a high of 3,884.9 and a low of 3,879.7 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, not to Thursday's completed session; its previous close field reads 3,885.3. Thursday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 4,124.4 minus Pivot S3 at 3,676.8, divided by three, returns 149.2, and Pivot R2 at 4,065.2 minus Pivot S2 at 3,766.8, divided by two, returns the same 149.2. The published Pivot Point is 3,916.0. Three times that value, less the 3,885.3 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 7,862.7, within the rounding of the published value, which with the 149.2 range solves to a high of 4,005.95 and a low of 3,856.75, or 4,005.9 and 3,856.7 at the published one-decimal rounding.

That pair, with the 3,885.3 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 3,994.0 open, 4,005.9 high, 3,856.7 low and 3,885.3 settle, and by the provider's separately published 52-week low of 3,856.7.

2.2 Daily Structure

Thursday printed a lower high and a lower low against Wednesday and settled 115.2 lower, the third consecutive lower settle. Settlements over the last six sessions read 4,113.5, 4,074.9, 4,114.5, 4,030.2, 4,000.5 and 3,885.3, so the contract has fallen 229.2 from the 4,114.5 settle of 11/09/26 in three sessions and settles 228.2 beneath the 4,113.5 settle of 11/05/26.

The settle is the lowest December-contract settle in the 259 completed sessions dated 11/03/25 through 11/12/26, and the 3,856.7 low is published by the provider as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. The provider publishes 5,781.8 as the 52-week high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 4,224.8 as the one-month high. The settle sits 28.6 above the low, 23.6 above the 3,861.7 level at which the 3-10 day average crossover would stall and 112.0 beneath the 3,997.3 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 4-week low.

In this review's interpretation a settle at 19.2 percent of a range 1.52 times the 14-day average daily range, at a new 52-week low and beneath every settlement average, describes a market in which sellers held control through the settlement, while the 29.3 point band held after the 10:00 AM ET low shows the decline paused rather than accelerated into the close.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

The 149.2 point range was the widest since the 153.0 point range of 11/04/26, after ranges of 135.4 on Tuesday and 85.1 on Wednesday. In the preserved 30-minute series three bars, at 8:00 AM, 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM ET, spanned more than 30 points from high to low, and two bars, at 8:00 AM and 9:30 AM ET, fell more than 25 points from open to close.

The swing sequence shows highs of 4,155.8 on 11/05, 4,157.7 on 11/09 and 4,156.2 on 11/10, three highs within 1.9 points, followed by lower highs at 4,074.7 on Wednesday and 4,005.9 on Thursday. The lows read 4,035.1 on 11/06, 4,062.5 on 11/09, 4,020.8 on 11/10, 3,989.6 on Wednesday and 3,856.7 on Thursday, the third consecutive lower low.

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/02/26, ran 91.8, 77.6, 153.0, 88.8, 81.1, 95.2, 135.4, 85.1 and 149.2. The published grid places the 14-3 day raw stochastic projections at 3,916.9 for 20 percent and 3,947.0 for 30 percent, the 9-day average stall at 3,969.6 and the 14-day relative strength at 30 percent at 3,750.2.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, preserved in the coverage receipt, which holds 259 completed sessions from 11/03/25 through Thursday; the partial row dated Friday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 4,021.1, the 9-day at 4,022.4, the 20-day at 4,049.9, the 50-day at 4,194.6, the 100-day at 4,238.9 and the 200-day at 4,543.9.

The 3,885.3 settle sits 135.8 beneath the 5-day average, 137.1 beneath the 9-day, 164.6 beneath the 20-day, 309.3 beneath the 50-day, 353.6 beneath the 100-day and 658.6 beneath the 200-day. It is the third consecutive settle beneath the 5-day and 20-day averages, the last settle above both on 11/09/26, the second beneath the 9-day, the last above it on 11/10/26, the 37th consecutive settle beneath the 50-day, the last above it on 09/22/26, the 39th beneath the 100-day, the last above it on 09/18/26, and the 54th beneath the 200-day, the last above it on 08/27/26.

The averages are stacked in descending order from the 200-day to the 5-day. The 5-day sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 4,059.6. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,291.0. The 50-day sits beneath the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged higher, at 4,283.2, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,848.9. The 5-day fell from Wednesday's 4,066.7 as the 4,113.5 settle of 11/05/26 left the window.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:22 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 33.23, the 14-day relative strength 35.82 and the 20-day relative strength 37.50.

The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastic both read 9.50 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 35.33 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 54.07 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 26.44 with the 9-day +DI at 16.13 and the 9-day -DI at 34.95, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 25.06 with the 14-day +DI at 16.09 and the 14-day -DI at 31.74, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.41 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 27.89 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read, quoted verbatim from the snapshot captured on Thursday evening on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "100% SELL", with Current Strength "Strong" and Current Direction "Strongest", and the Composite Indicator reads "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium-term group "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-term group "Average: 100% SELL". The snapshot history reads Yesterday "56% SELL", Last Week "16% SELL" and Last Month "80% SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 94.5 points and the 14-day average daily range at 98.1 points; the 9-day average true range is 99.5 with a 9-day average daily range of 106.4, and the 20-day average true range is 92.9 with a 20-day average daily range of 87.6. Thursday's 149.2 point range was 1.52 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 94.5 from the 3,885.3 settle frames Friday between 3,790.8 and 3,979.8. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 3,797.9 to 3,972.7 at one deviation, 3,761.7 to 4,008.9 at two and 3,733.9 to 4,036.7 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach. In this review's judgment the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, keeps a range near the 14-day average more likely than a contraction.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 3,885.3 settle, the first references are the Pivot Point at 3,916.0 and the 3,916.9 projection for the 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20 percent, with the 3,947.0 projection at 30 percent above them. The 9-day average stall at 3,969.6, one standard deviation resistance at 3,972.7 and Pivot R1 at 3,975.2 form the next band. The 3,997.3 retracement from the 4-week low, Thursday's 4,005.9 high and two standard deviation resistance at 4,008.9 follow, with the 5-day average at 4,021.1 and the 9-day at 4,022.4 as the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit the 3,881.7 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 3,863.4 low of the post-10:30 AM ET band, then the 3,861.7 crossover stall and Thursday's 3,856.7 low, the published 52-week low. Pivot S1 at 3,826.0 and the 3,820.1 published target price form the next band, followed by one standard deviation support at 3,797.9, Pivot S2 at 3,766.8, two standard deviation support at 3,761.7 and the 3,750.2 level at which the 14-day relative strength would reach 30.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Dollar and Real Yields

The dollar index's daily record closed at 103.17, up 0.26 points or 0.25 percent, and the provider's commentary described a fresh 1.5-year high, which is attributed commentary. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.10 after a 5.12 high, against 4.98 on Tuesday, the last session in which the cash Treasury market traded before Wednesday's holiday. Higher nominal yields and a firmer dollar raise the cost of holding gold, and in this review's interpretation that combination, on the day the President's comments lifted crude and yields, explains most of Thursday's decline. The news feed carried a currency note that dollar-yen trades within touching distance of 160.00 on hawkish Fed repricing, and the news feed flagged a suspected yen intervention at 11:43 AM ET.

4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy

The provider's commentary reported that three regional Fed presidents favoured additional rate hikes on Thursday, which is attributed commentary, and the news feed carried an investment-bank note arguing that the Fed missed an opportunity to hike at its prior meeting as inflation pressures build. The provider's commentary also reported weekly jobless claims rising 9,000 to 200,000 against expectations of 194,000, and existing home sales falling 5.5 percent to 3.75 million, both weaker than expected and both attributed. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a monthly forecast of 0.4 percent against 1.3 percent previously, a figure that is unconfirmed. The next policy statement is listed for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop

At 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the President's statement that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and from 3:28 PM ET remarks that he would possibly use military force in Iran if needed and would consider a week-long campaign against Cuba. From 2:02 PM ET the feed carried Iranian state media reports of an attack on Sirik in Hormozgan province. On Thursday these headlines lifted crude, yields and the dollar, and gold fell; in this review's interpretation the rates channel outweighed any haven demand, which is an inference from the coinciding moves, not a measured attribution.

4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)

No central-bank purchase data or Chinese demand figures were captured on Thursday. The gold tracking fund closed at 355.23, down 2.72 percent, on the positioning console, in line with the futures decline, and the console's call volume of 361.91 thousand contracts against put volume of 81.25 thousand shows options activity weighted toward calls on a down day. No fund holdings figure was captured, so no flow conclusion is drawn.

The provider lists the December contract's first notice date as 11/30/26 and its expiration as 12/29/26, so the December contract remains the reference for this review through the remainder of November. In this review's judgment structural demand is not the driver of the current decline, which tracks the dollar and yields session by session.

4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset

December WTI rose 2.55 percent to 88.74 and Brent's January contract 3.30 percent to 95.82, while silver's December contract fell 3.72 percent to 50.065. The gold to silver ratio rose to 77.61 from 76.93 as silver fell faster than gold. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.35 percent. In this review's interpretation the energy move worked against gold through inflation and rate expectations rather than through haven demand on Thursday.

4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 122,283 long, down 225, against 18,669 short, up 1,723, as listed and not recomputed, so speculative length remained large going into the decline. Thursday's December volume was 214,408 contracts against 132,437 on Wednesday, per the settlement record, a rise of 62 percent on the down day. February's premium over December narrowed to 32.0 from 32.8. The provider lists 11/30/26 as the December contract's first notice date.

Options positioning

This section uses the gold tracking fund's options positioning qualitatively only; it is never translated into futures prices, because the fund tracks bullion at roughly one eleventh of the futures price with a fee drag and has no clean basis. The fund's positioning console, read at 6:24 PM ET, shows a current price of 355.23 against a 365.17 previous close, a 2.72 percent decline, with call gamma of minus 427.59 million dollars and put gamma of minus 553.06 million dollars. Put to call open interest stands at 0.54, one-month implied volatility at 22.48 percent against one-month realized volatility of 26.26 percent, and the implied volatility rank at 18.09 percent.

The fund's console places its primary put side support base at 350, its largest gamma concentration at 380, a secondary dealer-positioning level at 370 and its primary call side ceiling at 400, in the fund's own price terms. The fund closed 5.23 above the 350 put side base. In this review's interpretation negative gamma on both calls and puts suggests that hedging may add to moves rather than damp them, and implied volatility beneath realized volatility describes an options market that is not pricing additional stress; both are inferences about the fund's options, not measured futures levels. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded as low-confidence. No level in section 3 or section 8 comes from this section.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday with the overview showing a 3,883.3 open, 2.0 beneath the settle. Bias lower to neutral beneath the Pivot Point at 3,916.0, expected band roughly 3,850 to 3,920.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)

French consumer prices are listed for 2:45 AM ET and euro area growth data for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 3,947.0 projection, expected band roughly 3,840 to 3,930.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, US Open)

The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, ahead of the session, and remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 3,820 to 3,950, with the 3,915 to 3,925 setup band in the upper half.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the settlement at 1:30 PM ET fixes the weekly reference. Expected band roughly 3,830 to 3,940.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, after the close. Globex does not reopen on Friday evening; the next session opens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of headline exposure on Iran and Fed commentary separate Friday's settle from the reopen. In this review's judgment a gap through Pivot R1 at 3,975.2 on the upside or Pivot S1 at 3,826.0 on the downside is possible on a weekend headline.

Expected Range (Friday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 3,850 to 3,930

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 3,820 to 3,950

High-range scenario: 3,790 to 3,980

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract beneath the Pivot Point at 3,916.0 into the producer price index, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a rebound toward the 3,915 to 3,925 band that stalls beneath the 3,947.0 projection weighted above a settle through it. The composite at "100% SELL" with direction "Strongest", the settle beneath all six averages and negative direction on both directional systems support that reading, while the raw stochastic at 9.50 percent and the 29.3 point band held after the 10:00 AM ET low argue for a rebound attempt before any extension.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 3,975.2 and one standard deviation resistance at 3,972.7, which would bring Thursday's 4,005.9 high back into play; a soft producer price report that cools hike expectations, or a sharp drop in the dollar, are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a firm report could carry the contract through Thursday's 3,856.7 low toward Pivot S1 at 3,826.0 without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Thursday's releases are complete. Weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, listed by the news-feed calendar for 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET on Thursday, unconfirmed, were reported by the provider's commentary at 200,000 claims against 194,000 expected and 3.75 million home sales against 3.85 million expected, which is attributed commentary. December gold settled at 1:30 PM ET at 3,885.3.

Friday opens with French consumer prices listed for 2:45 AM ET and euro area growth data listed for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a core monthly forecast of 0.3 percent against 0.7 percent previously, a figure that is unconfirmed. Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:10 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. In this review's judgment the first-order input for gold on Friday is the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with Fed commentary and Iran headlines as the unscheduled inputs.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled at 19.2 percent of a range 1.52 times the 14-day average daily range, at the lowest settle of the 259 completed sessions dated 11/03/25 through 11/12/26, beneath all six averages, with the composite at "100% SELL" and negative direction leading on both directional systems. A rebound into the 3,915 to 3,925 band, around the Pivot Point at 3,916.0 and the 3,916.9 stochastic projection, offers a short with a defined risk point above the 3,947.0 projection. The raw stochastic at 9.50 percent leaves room for a rebound that runs through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds toward the Pivot Point are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 3,915 to 3,925

Stop Loss: 3,955 (above the 3,947.0 projection and beneath the 3,969.6 average stall)

Target 1 (T1): 3,885 (at the 3,885.3 settle)

Target 2 (T2): 3,850 (beneath Thursday's 3,856.7 low)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 3,815 (beneath the 3,820.1 target price, above one standard deviation support at 3,797.9)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 3,975.2 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 3,925.

Macro override: A soft producer price report that cools hike expectations, a sharp reversal lower in the dollar or yields, or a haven bid on a Gulf escalation would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 3,955 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Pivot R1 at 3,975.2 becomes the reference, 20.2 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 94.5.