Gold Futures 4,000.5: Short 4,040 to 4,050 Below Pivot R1

Executive Summary

The December gold contract settled at 4,000.5 on Wednesday, down 29.7 or 0.74 percent from Tuesday's settle of 4,030.2, after trading between 4,074.7 and 3,989.6, an 85.1 point daily range. The settle finished at 12.8 percent of the range, 10.9 above the low, and the range was 0.93 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 91.8 points. Wednesday printed a lower high, 81.5 beneath Tuesday's 4,156.2, and a lower low, 31.2 beneath Tuesday's 4,020.8, and settled lower for a second session.

The settle is the lowest since 11/03/26, when the contract settled at 3,940.4, and the 3,989.6 low is the lowest since the 3,928.2 low of 11/04/26. The 85.1 point range is the narrowest since the 81.1 point range of 11/06/26. Over five sessions the contract is down 72.5 from the 4,073.0 settle of 11/04/26, a decline of 1.78 percent, and the settle sits beneath all six settlement averages from the 5-day to the 200-day.

The high came overnight and the decline came in the US hours. The 30-minute series places the 4,074.7 high in the 2:00 AM ET bar, and the 9:30 AM ET bar fell 16.3 to 4,022.4, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar, as the equity cash session opened. The contract then worked lower through the afternoon and made its 3,989.6 low in the 3:00 PM ET bar, after the 1:30 PM ET settle. The dollar index's daily record closed at 102.91, up 0.67 percent, and the provider's commentary tied the dollar's rise to firmer Fed hike expectations after Tuesday's consumer price index, which is attributed commentary; the dollar's rise and gold's decline coincided, and no captured series separates their effects.

At 8:54 AM ET the news feed carried a sentiment note that markets continue to price a more hawkish Fed, and investment-bank commentary in the same feed expected a second quarter-point hike in December and added a third in March 2027. The cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, so no ten-year yield session printed. Silver's December contract rose 1.52 percent against gold's decline, and the gold to silver ratio fell to 76.93 from 78.68.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Wednesday evening is "56% SELL" with strength "Soft" and direction "Strongest", against "40% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 4,040 to 4,050 band, around one standard deviation resistance at 4,051.1 and beneath Pivot R1 at 4,053.6, stopped at 4,065, with objectives at 4,025, 4,005 and an extended 3,985. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Wednesday session opened at 4,043.7 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 13.5 above Tuesday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the high of 4,074.7 in the 2:00 AM ET bar and the low of 3,989.6 in the 3:00 PM ET bar. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 4,034.1 and 4,074.7 and closed that window at 4,066.6, with the 12:00 AM ET bar gaining 11.3, the largest gain of any bar in the session.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open the contract traded between 4,035.3 and 4,069.3 and closed that window at 4,038.5, giving back 28.1 from the overnight close. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 16.3 from 4,038.7 to 4,022.4 and spanned 20.8 from high to low, the widest bar of the session, and the 10:00 AM ET bar fell a further 8.7 to 4,013.7.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 3,989.6 and 4,038.8. The 12:30 PM ET bar fell 10.6, the second largest decline, and the settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET at 4,000.5. From the 1:30 PM ET bar onward the bars held between 3,989.6 and 4,002.6, the 3:00 PM ET bar made the session low, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 3,994.3, 6.2 beneath the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:20 PM ET, carries an open of 3,994.0, a high of 4,000.2 and a low of 3,990.2 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, not to Wednesday's completed session; its previous close field reads 4,000.5. Wednesday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 4,138.7 minus Pivot S3 at 3,883.4, divided by three, returns 85.1, and Pivot R2 at 4,106.7 minus Pivot S2 at 3,936.5, divided by two, returns the same 85.1. The published Pivot Point is 4,021.6. Three times that value, less the 4,000.5 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 8,064.3, which with the 85.1 range solves to a high of 4,074.7 and a low of 3,989.6.

That pair, with the 4,000.5 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 4,043.7 open, 4,074.7 high, 3,989.6 low and 4,000.5 settle.

2.2 Daily Structure

Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Tuesday and settled 29.7 lower, a second consecutive lower settle after Tuesday's 84.3 point decline. Settlements over the last six sessions read 4,073.0, 4,113.5, 4,074.9, 4,114.5, 4,030.2 and 4,000.5, so two sessions have removed 114.0 points from Monday's 4,114.5 settle.

The settle is the lowest since the 3,940.4 settle of 11/03/26, and the 3,989.6 low is the lowest since the 3,928.2 low of 11/04/26. The provider publishes 3,879.3 as the one-month, 13-week and 52-week low, 4,242.3 as the one-month high and 4,755.0 as the 13-week high. The settle sits 17.5 beneath the 4,018.0 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low and 60.3 beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range.

The settle finished at 12.8 percent of the day's range, 10.9 above the 3,989.6 low and 74.2 beneath the 4,074.7 high. In this review's interpretation a settle in the lower eighth of the range, after a session that also settled near its low, describes continued selling pressure rather than a completed decline, because the contract made its low after the settle and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed beneath it.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges over the last eight sessions, from 10/30/26, ran 158.9, 91.8, 77.6, 153.0, 88.8, 81.1, 95.2 and 135.4, followed by Wednesday's 85.1, the narrowest since the 81.1 point range of 11/06/26. In the 30-minute series no bar moved more than 16.3 from open to close, and only the 9:30 AM ET bar spanned more than 20 from high to low.

The swing sequence since the 3,879.3 low of 10/30/26 shows highs of 4,081.2 on 11/04, 4,155.8 on 11/05, 4,157.7 on 11/09 and 4,156.2 on 11/10, three highs within 1.9 points of each other, followed by Wednesday's lower high at 4,074.7. The lows read 3,928.2 on 11/04, 4,062.5 on 11/09, 4,020.8 on 11/10 and 3,989.6 on Wednesday, the second consecutive lower low. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,018.0, the four-week midpoint at 4,060.8 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,103.6.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/31/25 through Wednesday; the partial row dated Thursday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 4,066.7, the 9-day at 4,023.9, the 20-day at 4,064.2, the 50-day at 4,205.2, the 100-day at 4,242.2 and the 200-day at 4,551.9.

The 4,000.5 settle sits 66.2 beneath the 5-day average, 23.4 beneath the 9-day, 63.7 beneath the 20-day, 204.7 beneath the 50-day, 241.7 beneath the 100-day and 551.4 beneath the 200-day. It is the first settle beneath the 9-day average after five settles above it from 11/04/26 to 11/10/26, the second consecutive settle beneath the 20-day after a settle above it on 11/09/26, the 36th consecutive settle beneath the 50-day, the last settle above it on 09/22/26, and the 53rd consecutive settle beneath the 200-day, the last settle above it on 08/27/26.

The 5-day average sits 2.5 above the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged lower, at 4,063.3. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,299.2. The 50-day sits beneath the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged higher, at 4,279.2, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,861.7. The 5-day average fell from Tuesday's 4,081.2 as Wednesday's settle replaced the 11/04 settle of 4,073.0.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 42.50, the 14-day relative strength 42.33 and the 20-day relative strength 42.34.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 43.53 percent, the 14-day stochastic %K 59.67 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 66.66 percent, with %K beneath %D. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 25.14 with the 9-day +DI at 19.35 and the 9-day -DI at 24.13, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 24.48 with the 14-day +DI at 18.14 and the 14-day -DI at 24.45, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 30.60 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 25.80 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Wednesday evening, on a page titled for Thursday, November 12, 2026, is "56% SELL", with signal strength "Soft" and direction "Strongest", and the composite indicator reads "SELL". The snapshot history reads "40% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "64% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group reads "Average: 60% SELL", the medium group "Average: 25% SELL" and the long group "Average: 67% SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 90.3 points and the 14-day average daily range at 91.8 points; the 9-day average true range is 93.3 with a 9-day average daily range of 107.4, and the 20-day average true range is 89.9 with a 20-day average daily range of 84.0. Wednesday's 85.1 point range was 0.93 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 90.3 from the 4,000.5 settle frames Thursday between 3,910.2 and 4,090.8. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 3,949.9 to 4,051.1 at one deviation, 3,928.9 to 4,072.1 at two and 3,912.8 to 4,088.2 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the weekly jobless claims, several Fed speakers and the reopening of the cash Treasury market sit inside Thursday's session.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 4,000.5 settle, the first references are the 4,013.7 stall of the 3-day and 10-day crossover and the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low, with the Pivot Point at 4,021.6 and the 9-day average at 4,023.9 just above. One standard deviation resistance at 4,051.1 and Pivot R1 at 4,053.6 form the next band, followed by the 4,060.8 four-week midpoint, the 20-day average at 4,064.2 and the 5-day average at 4,066.7. Wednesday's 4,074.7 high and Pivot R2 at 4,106.7 are the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit Wednesday's 3,989.6 low and the 3,982.6 published target price. Pivot S1 at 3,968.5 and one standard deviation support at 3,949.9 form the next band, followed by the 3,940.4 settle of 11/03/26 and Pivot S2 at 3,936.5. The 3,928.2 low of 11/04/26, Pivot S3 at 3,883.4 and the 3,879.3 low published as the one-month, 13-week and 52-week low are the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Dollar and Real Yields

The dollar index's daily record closed at 102.91, up 0.68 points or 0.67 percent from Tuesday's 102.23, and the provider's commentary described the dollar at a 1.5-year high, which is attributed commentary. The cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, so the ten-year yield index printed no session and no real-yield figure was available. Gold's 0.74 percent decline coincided with the dollar's rise; no captured series separates the two.

4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy

The October consumer price index, released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, rose 0.4 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar's actual values. At 8:54 AM ET on Wednesday the news feed carried a sentiment note that markets continue to price a more hawkish Fed, and investment-bank commentary in the same feed expected a second quarter-point hike in December and a third in March 2027. The provider's commentary said several Fed members expressed support for tighter policy, which is attributed commentary. In this review's interpretation higher expected policy rates weigh on a non-yielding asset, which fits the second lower settle.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop

No geopolitical headline lifted gold on Wednesday; the contract settled lower through the afternoon.

4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)

No central-bank purchase figures or Chinese demand data were available. At 4:01 PM ET the commodities feed carried a report that China extended its pause on rare-earth export curbs ahead of US and China talks, a feed item that bears on trade relations rather than on gold demand directly. The gold tracking fund fell 1.07 percent to 365.44 from 369.41 on its positioning console, a move consistent with the futures decline; fund flow figures were not captured.

4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset

December WTI rose 0.57 percent to 86.53 and Brent's January contract 1.39 percent to 92.76, while silver's December contract rose 1.52 percent to 52.002, so gold declined while the rest of the commodity complex rose. The gold to silver ratio fell to 76.93 from 78.68. The S&P 500 cash index rose 1.31 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 2.28 percent, and the volatility index's daily record closed at 17.49 from 19.46. In this review's interpretation the equity rebound and the lower volatility index reduced demand for gold as a hedge on Wednesday, alongside the firmer dollar.

Silver's 1.52 percent gain against gold's 0.74 percent decline is the cleaner cross-asset signal of the session, because the two metals usually move in the same direction on dollar and rate news. In this review's interpretation the divergence points to industrial and risk-on demand favouring silver rather than to a broad move out of precious metals.

4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 122,283 long, down 225, against 18,669 short, up 1,723, as listed and not recomputed. Wednesday's December volume was 123,606 contracts against 196,165 on Tuesday, per the settlement record, so the decline came on lower participation. February's premium over December narrowed to 32.8 from 33.3.

Options positioning

This section uses the gold tracking fund's options positioning qualitatively only; it is never translated into futures prices, because the fund tracks bullion at roughly one eleventh of the futures price with a fee drag and has no clean basis. The fund's console, read at 6:22 PM ET, shows a current price of 365.44 against a 369.41 previous close, a 1.07 percent decline, with call gamma of minus 231.8 million dollars and put gamma of plus 120.57 million dollars. Put to call open interest stands at 0.51, one-month implied volatility at 22.54 percent against one-month realized volatility of 27.38 percent, and the implied volatility rank at 18.36 percent.

In this review's interpretation, implied volatility beneath realized volatility and a low implied volatility rank describe an options market that is not pricing additional stress in gold, while the low put to call ratio shows open interest weighted toward calls. Negative call gamma alongside positive put gamma suggests that hedging of call positions may add to moves rather than damp them; that is an inference about the fund's options, not a measured futures level. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded as low-confidence. No level in section 3 or section 8 comes from this section.

Ratio check for the record: 4,000.5 divided by 365.44 returns 10.95, consistent with the roughly one eleventh relationship, and no conversion is applied to any figure.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday with the overview showing a 3,994.0 open, beneath the 4,000.5 settle. Japanese producer prices are listed for 6:50 PM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 4,021.6, expected band roughly 3,970 to 4,025.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)

UK growth data are listed for 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, ahead of the London session. Bias neutral beneath Pivot R1 at 4,053.6, expected band roughly 3,965 to 4,035.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, US Open)

Weekly jobless claims are listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by Fed officials are listed through the morning by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. The cash Treasury market reopens after the holiday. Expected band roughly 3,955 to 4,050, with the 4,040 to 4,050 setup band near the top.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)

A 30-year bond auction is listed for 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the settle is fixed at 1:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 3,960 to 4,040.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)

The Thursday evening session carries into the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Remarks by a Fed official are listed for 6:30 PM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 3,970 to 4,030

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 3,950 to 4,055

High-range scenario: 3,915 to 4,090

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 3,968.5 and Pivot R1 at 4,053.6, with a rebound toward the 4,040 to 4,050 band that stalls beneath the 4,060.8 to 4,066.7 grouping of the four-week midpoint and the 20-day and 5-day averages, weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "56% SELL" with strength "Soft" and direction "Strongest", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath all six averages, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a rebound rather than chasing a decline from the reopen.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Wednesday's 4,074.7 high, which would bring Pivot R2 at 4,106.7 into play; a softer dollar after the cash Treasury market reopens, or a weaker claims figure, are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a further rise in the dollar could carry the contract through Pivot S1 at 3,968.5 toward the 3,940.4 settle of 11/03/26 without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Wednesday's releases are complete. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 was the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours and normal settlement times and banks closed, per the verified forward calendar, and the cash Treasury market closed. December gold settled at 1:30 PM ET at 4,000.5.

Thursday opens with UK growth data listed for 2:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and weekly jobless claims listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Existing home sales are listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by several Fed officials are listed from 9:00 AM ET through the evening by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. A 30-year bond auction is listed for 1:00 PM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Later in the week, the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's judgment the first-order input for gold on Thursday is the reopening of the cash Treasury market and the Fed remarks against the dollar's 1.5-year high, with the producer price index on Friday the next confirmed data test.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled at 12.8 percent of the range for a second lower settle, beneath all six averages and beneath the 9-day for the first time since 11/03/26, the composite reads "56% SELL" with direction "Strongest" and negative direction leads on both directional systems. A rebound into the 4,040 to 4,050 band, around one standard deviation resistance at 4,051.1 and beneath Pivot R1 at 4,053.6, offers a short with a defined risk point above the 4,060.8 four-week midpoint. A softer dollar after the cash Treasury market reopens can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds toward Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 4,040 to 4,050

Stop Loss: 4,065 (above the 4,060.8 four-week midpoint and Pivot R1 at 4,053.6, and above the 20-day average at 4,064.2)

Target 1 (T1): 4,025 (above the Pivot Point at 4,021.6)

Target 2 (T2): 4,005 (above the 4,000.5 settle)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 3,985 (beneath Wednesday's 3,989.6 low, above the 3,982.6 published target price)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Wednesday's 4,074.7 high negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,050.

Macro override: A sharp reversal lower in the dollar, a weak jobless claims figure, or a geopolitical escalation that renews demand for gold as a hedge would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 4,065 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Wednesday's 4,074.7 high becomes the reference, 9.7 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 90.3.