At the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, November crude opened at 91.77 and printed 91.88 inside the first 30-minute bar. Nothing traded higher all session. The contract slid through the Asian hours to an 89.31 low in the 4:00 AM ET bar, bounced to 91.22 in the 4:30 AM ET bar and to 91.31 in the 11:00 AM ET bar, then lost ground into the 2:30 PM ET settle. It settled at 89.43. That was down 1.68 points or 1.84 percent from Friday’s 91.11. Volume printed 247,100 contracts on the provider’s dated daily record for Monday, against 355,302 on Friday’s row.
Monday traded between 91.88 and 88.74, a 3.14 point range, and finished at 22.0 percent of it. The range was 0.69 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.53 points, the narrowest session since the 3.09 point range of 09/17. The settle was the lowest since the 89.38 settle of 09/29. It was the second lower settle in a row. Against Friday’s revised range of 93.51 to 87.89, Monday printed a lower high and a higher low. An inside session. The 88.74 low came last, in the 2:30 PM ET bar, after the settlement had been struck.
Provider commentary attributed the decline to a dollar index that reached a 1.5-year high and to a larger than expected cut by Saudi Arabia’s state producer to its November official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia. It said losses were limited after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an offensive against Houthi-held territory. Neither item carried a time stamp on the feeds captured for this session. No bar is tied to either. The dollar index rose 0.24 percent to 102.17 and the ten-year yield index closed four basis points higher at 5.31 percent. Brent’s December contract settled at 100.32, down 1.93. Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here. Its published 14-day average true range of 4.20 points is 4.70 percent of the settle.
November WTI settled at 89.43. It fell 1.84 percent, finishing at 22.0 percent of a 91.88 to 88.74 range inside Friday’s. Overhead sit the 90.02 Pivot Point, the 90.43 stochastic threshold, the 90.50 relative-strength line, the 90.64 5-day average and one deviation resistance at 90.87. Support starts at the 88.70 to 88.74 group of the 13-week retracement and Monday’s low, then Pivot S1 at 88.15 and one deviation support at 87.99. The primary setup is a short from 90.70 to 91.00, stop 92.00, targets 89.70, 88.55 and 87.40. The calendar lists the short-term energy outlook at 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, in our judgment the first-order event for crude.
Monday’s short, graded against the bar
Monday’s card was a short. That outlook set it from a rally into 92.40 to 92.70, around one standard deviation resistance at 92.58 and beneath Thursday’s 92.87 settle. It carried a stop at 93.90, targets at 91.20, 89.85 and 88.50, and an outright invalidation on a settle above Pivot R1 at 93.73. Monday opened at 91.77, marked a 91.88 high and an 88.74 low, and settled at 89.43. The dated 10/05 row of the provider’s daily record carries the same four prices.
We put the entry band at 92.40 to 92.70. It never traded. Monday’s 91.88 high, in the first bar after the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, stopped 52 cents beneath the band’s bottom, and no later bar came closer. The 93.90 stop sat 2.02 points above the high. The first two target levels traded anyway. The 6:30 PM ET bar reached 90.96, through 91.20, and the 12:00 AM ET bar reached 89.67, through 89.85. The 88.50 third target did not trade; the 88.74 low sat 24 cents above it. With the entry band untouched, those prints describe price only. This outlook asserts no result for the card.
Neither exit clause came into play. The card defined acceptance above two deviation resistance as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 93.19. The highest 30-minute close all session was the first bar’s 91.29. The outright invalidation stayed out of reach too. The settle sat 4.30 points beneath 93.73.
The macro override named three weekend risks: an escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a Saudi strike in Yemen that threatens Red Sea traffic, or a collapse of the talks with Iran. Its test was a Sunday gap above the 93.90 stop. No such gap came. The reopen printed 91.77, 66 cents above Friday’s settle and 2.13 points beneath the stop. Provider commentary did describe an offensive by Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces against Houthi-held territory, and said losses were limited after it. That item was untimed.
The range work held up. The low-range case, 89.60 to 92.60, held the 91.88 high but lost the settle by 17 cents and the low by 86 cents. The most likely band, 88.80 to 93.40, held the high and the settle. Only the 88.74 low, printed after the settle in the 2:30 PM ET bar, slipped 6 cents beneath its bottom. The high-range case, 86.80 to 95.40, held the whole session.
So did most of the path call. That outlook expected the Sunday session to open within the two-deviation band, 89.03 to 93.19, and to leave the contract beneath the 91.79 to 91.94 group of the 9-day average and its crossing price. The reopen at 91.77 sat inside the band. The first bar reached 91.88, inside the group, and never cleared 91.94; no later bar returned to 91.79. It also weighted a test of the 90.89 Pivot Point through the European morning above an extension toward 93.19. The test came early. The 7:30 PM ET Sunday bar traded to 90.80, and the extension never came. The settle sat 1.46 points beneath 90.89.
The 30-minute series scores the session bands. Globex, 89.60 to 92.60, traded 89.60 to 91.88 through the 2:30 AM ET bar, touching its bottom to the cent in the 2:00 AM ET bar. London, 89.20 to 92.40, traded 89.31 to 91.22 from the 3:00 AM ET bar through the 7:30 AM ET bar. That is wholly inside. The United States morning, 89.00 to 92.60, traded 89.11 to 91.31 through the 11:30 AM ET bar, also inside. The afternoon, 89.40 to 92.80, ran 89.29 to 90.40 through the 2:00 PM ET bar, 11 cents through the bottom.
A first-bar high, a post-settle low
Monday opened at 91.77 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 66 cents above Friday’s settle. The first bar printed the 91.88 session high and closed at 91.29. Asia sold in steps. The 7:30 PM ET bar closed at 90.85, the 8:30 PM ET bar at 90.34 and the 10:00 PM ET bar at 90.01.
From midnight to the 3:30 AM ET bar the contract held between 89.52 and 90.43, with an 89.60 low in the 2:00 AM ET bar. The 4:00 AM ET bar marked an 89.31 low and closed at 89.99. Then came the first rebound. The 4:30 AM ET bar rose to 91.22, 1.91 points off that low, and closed at 90.62. From the 5:00 AM ET bar through the 6:30 AM ET bar the contract held between 89.84 and 91.02.
The United States morning was two-sided. The 7:00 AM ET bar traded down to 89.42 and the 9:00 AM ET bar to 89.12. The 10:00 AM ET bar, which contained the services survey, traded between 89.11 and 90.17 and closed at 89.81. Buyers came back. The 10:30 AM ET bar closed at 90.53, and the 11:00 AM ET bar reached 91.31 before closing at 90.72.
The afternoon gave it back. From the 11:30 AM ET bar through the 1:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 89.66 and 90.82. The 2:00 PM ET bar traded from 90.14 down to 89.29 and closed at 89.33. The settlement at 2:30 PM ET was 89.43.
The low came later. After the settlement, electronic trade marked the 88.74 session low in the 2:30 PM ET bar. It then held between 88.81 and 89.43 from the 3:00 PM ET bar through the 4:30 PM ET bar, which closed at 89.30. Those prints came after the settle and are not used as the settlement anywhere here. Tuesday’s session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday. The provider’s day open, high and low of 89.27, 89.36 and 89.22, shown when the data were read, belong to that new session.
The extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from its outer pairs. The third resistance point at 94.43 minus the third support point at 85.01, divided by three, returns 3.14. So does 93.16 less 86.88, halved. Three times the 90.02 Pivot Point less the 89.43 settle gives a 180.63 high-plus-low sum. That is one cent from the 180.62 of the solved pair, because the published pivot is rounded. The pair of 91.88 and 88.74 reproduces all seven rungs. The settlement row, the chart’s completed Monday bar and the extreme bars of the 30-minute series carry the same high and low.
Both extremes sit inside Friday’s. The 91.88 high sits 1.63 points beneath Friday’s 93.51, and the 88.74 low 85 cents above Friday’s 87.89. The provider revised Friday’s low to 87.89 from the 88.06 recorded in the Friday capture. The 87.89 figure is also the one-month low, dated 10/02/26. Session highs over the last six sessions read 96.54, 94.74, 91.96, 93.68, 93.51 and 91.88. The lows read 91.25, 88.78, 88.58, 88.79, 87.89 and 88.74. Settlements ran 92.60, 89.38, 90.42, 92.87, 91.11 and 89.43.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 96.54 to 87.89. Monday traded inside it. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 12.26 points above the settle. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes stand in as the quarterly reference. Fifteen settles tell the swing since the 09/15 peak: 100.75, 97.51, 97.23, 96.08, 92.37, 90.52, 92.16, 94.61, 92.41, 92.60, 89.38, 90.42, 92.87, 91.11 and 89.43. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 3.24, 5.29, 5.96, 3.38, 4.89, 5.62 and 3.14.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.70. That is 73 cents beneath the settle. The 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 84.69. Above the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 93.16, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.79 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.42. No four-hour series was captured. The 30-minute series is the only intraday evidence.
The averages come from the provider’s daily settlement series for the November contract, 259 completed sessions through Monday. The 5-day stands at 90.64, the 9-day at 91.67, the 20-day at 93.70, the 50-day at 86.00, the 100-day at 81.83 and the 200-day at 75.16. The settle sits 1.21 points beneath the 5-day, 2.24 beneath the 9-day and 4.27 beneath the 20-day. It sits 3.43 points above the 50-day.
The short averages kept sliding. The 5-day fell 63 cents from Friday’s 91.28 as the 09/28 settle of 92.60 left its window and 89.43 replaced it. The 9-day fell 12 cents from 91.79 as the 09/22 settle of 90.52 left. The 20-day rose four cents from 93.66 as the 09/04 settle of 88.57 left. The projection grid puts Tuesday’s 9-day crossing at 91.60, the 18-day crossing at 93.68 and the 40-day at 88.65.
Momentum leans soft. The oscillator figures are as published on the provider’s technical page dated for the Tuesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. That page may carry the live Globex price, so the readings are quoted as published. Relative strength reads 42.86 on the 9-day, 47.82 on the 14-day and 50.84 on the 20-day. The stochastics sit low in their ranges. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 17.32 percent and the 14-day 12.11 percent, with the 14-day %K at 22.72 percent and %D at 21.16 percent. The 14-3 day raw stochastic’s 20 percent threshold sits at 90.43 and its 30 percent threshold at 91.71.
Direction still leans positive. On the 9-day the directional index reads 22.10, with positive direction at 16.43 and negative at 13.66. The 14-day reads 25.44, positive at 19.26 over negative at 14.16. Historic volatility runs 34.95 percent on the 9-day and 33.90 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read for the Tuesday session fell to 24 percent buy from 32 percent in the prior session’s snapshot. Signal strength is described as soft and direction as weakest. It read 48 percent a week ago and 80 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages hold, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy. The composite trend indicator reads hold.
Volatility sets the scale. The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.20 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.53. The 9-day figures are 4.41 and 4.60, the 20-day figures 3.99 and 4.53. A one-range projection from 89.43 on the 14-day average true range frames Tuesday between 85.23 and 93.63. The published deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements. One deviation spans 87.99 to 90.87, two spans 87.39 to 91.47 and three spans 86.94 to 91.92. The bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
A Saudi price cut, a firmer dollar and a Yemen offensive
Saudi pricing carried the supply story. No producer-alliance statement was captured on Monday’s feeds. Provider commentary said Saudi Arabia’s state producer lowered its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian buyers by 5 dollars a barrel below the regional benchmark, against expectations of a 5 dollar increase. The same commentary said Saudi Arabia reported flows through its East-West crude line had risen to 80 percent of capacity as of Saturday. Both come from provider commentary and were not measured here. An energy-news article on the feed at 6:01 PM ET described the Group of Seven reserve release as a temporary fix for the fuel market.
Yemen cut the other way. Provider commentary said losses were limited after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an offensive to recapture Houthi-held territory. That item was untimed as well. After the settle the news feed carried a Treasury notice at 3:38 PM ET that foreign banks may be sanctioned for business with Iran. At 4:12 PM ET it carried a Houthi statement claiming three military operations in Saudi Arabia, with no Saudi confirmation.
Words piled up after the settle. Between 3:21 PM ET and 3:31 PM ET the President said he was always open to direct talks with Iran, that a specific threat had prompted bombers to be withdrawn from a base in the United Kingdom, and that the Saudi and Houthi conflict would work out. These are statements carried by the news feed. None was confirmed here. All of them came after the 2:30 PM ET settle.
The product complex split. The November gasoline contract settled at 3.2462 dollars a gallon, down 0.0662 or 2.00 percent. November heating oil settled at 4.5452, up 0.0441 or 0.98 percent, per the provider’s records. On the settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, narrowed to 46.91 from 48.01. The heating oil margin widened to 101.47 from 97.94. Diesel drew comment after the settle. At 3:29 PM ET the President said the problem with diesel is that Russian refineries are being hit, and at 3:22 PM ET that farmers would be helped with diesel, per the news feed. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
Inventories were quiet. The captured calendars carry no petroleum inventory entry for Monday and no private inventory survey entry for Tuesday. The calendar lists the short-term energy outlook with the winter fuels outlook at 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on October 7, 2026. The news-feed calendar lists the prior weekly reading as a build of 0.922 million barrels.
The dollar firmed. The services survey from the purchasing managers’ institute at 10:00 AM ET printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast and 55.4 previously, with its employment component at 50.1 against 48.8, per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said the prices-paid component rose 1.4 points to 74.0, a four-year high. It said the ten-year Treasury yield touched a 24-year high during the session. The dollar index closed at 102.17, up 0.24 points or 0.24 percent, after a session range of 101.86 to 102.54, per the provider’s quote. A news-feed article at 11:45 AM ET tied the move to French debt concerns. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.31 percent, up four basis points.
Brent fell further in dollars. Its December contract settled at 100.32, down 1.93 or 1.89 percent, so its premium over November WTI narrowed to 10.89 from 11.14. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,773.95, up 0.66 percent. Gold’s December contract settled at 4,156.8, down 5.5 points or 0.13 percent.
Positioning data are a week old. The latest report on the provider’s overview is still the one as of September 29, 2026: managed money long 209,028 contracts against short 129,436, a net long of 79,592, with commercials 873,637 long against 1,016,255 short. No change in positioning is asserted for Monday. The overview shows open interest on the November contract at 258,251. That is Friday’s figure, on the dated 10/02 row. Monday’s open interest had not been reported, so no change in open interest is asserted for Monday.
One gap is deliberate. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude: no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is borrowed from another instrument. The positioning inputs for crude are the weekly positioning report, the weekly inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
The trade map for Tuesday
Overhead, the references stack tight. The settle at 89.43 sits 59 cents beneath the Pivot Point at 90.02. The stochastic 20 percent threshold at 90.43 and the 14-day relative-strength 50 percent line at 90.50 come next, then the 5-day settlement average at 90.64 and one deviation resistance at 90.87. Pivot R1 at 91.29 and the 11:00 AM ET bar high of 91.31 sit two cents apart. Two deviation resistance at 91.47 and the 9-day average crossing at 91.60 sit above them. The 91.88 Monday high and three deviation resistance at 91.92 form the next band. The 9-day average stall price at 92.16 follows. Pivot R2 at 93.16 coincides with the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low. Friday’s 93.51 high, the 18-day average crossing at 93.68 and the 20-day settlement average at 93.70 sit above it, with Pivot R3 at 94.43 the extended reference.
Support starts close. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.70 and the 40-day average crossing at 88.65 sit just under the 88.74 Monday low. Pivot S1 at 88.15 and one deviation support at 87.99 follow. Friday’s 87.89 low comes next. It is also the one-month low. Two deviation support at 87.39, the 3-10 day average crossover stall price at 87.21 and three deviation support at 86.94 come next. Pivot S2 at 86.88, the 50-day settlement average at 86.00 and Pivot S3 at 85.01 are the deeper references. The 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 84.69.
The primary setup is a short from a rally into 90.70 to 91.00, beneath Pivot R1 at 91.29 and around one deviation resistance at 90.87. It needs a rally first. Monday settled beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages at the lowest settle since 09/29. The composite read fell to 24 percent buy with direction weakest. Provider commentary tied the decline to a stronger dollar and a Saudi price cut to Asia. A rally into one deviation resistance beneath Pivot R1 offers a short with a defined risk point above the 91.88 Monday high. In our reading, Monday’s rebounds to 91.22 and 91.31 show buyers still respond to Gulf headlines. So the setup is an analyst judgment against live headline risk. Risk is 1.15 from the 90.85 midpoint.
The entry band sits 1.27 points above the settle. Tuesday’s session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday, with the Houthi claim of operations in Saudi Arabia and the Treasury notice on Iran-linked banks both arriving after the settle. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Monday’s Asian hours carried the contract from the 91.88 opening high to an 89.60 low in the 2:00 AM ET bar. The overnight window has recent evidence of selling. Bias is neutral to lower beneath the 90.02 Pivot Point. The expected Globex band is roughly 88.40 to 90.60, absent a headline shock.
Europe’s list is light. The United Kingdom construction survey is listed at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Neither is a first-order crude event. Monday’s 4:30 AM ET bar rose 1.91 points from the 4:00 AM ET low. The London hours have shown two-way swings of that size. Bias is neutral to lower, with an expected band of roughly 88.30 to 90.90.
The calendar lists the trade balance at 8:30 AM ET, forecast at a deficit of 102 billion dollars against 88.6 billion, per the news-feed calendar. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 9:05 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the Vice Chair for Supervision at 10:45 AM ET. These reach crude through the dollar. Expected band roughly 88.20 to 91.00, with the 90.87 to 91.29 band the first resistance.
Noon brings the crude event. The calendar lists the short-term energy outlook with the winter fuels outlook at 12:00 PM ET, the most crude-specific scheduled item of the day. A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Monday’s decline into the settle ran from the 2:00 PM ET bar. Expected band roughly 88.00 to 90.80.
Another regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on October 7, 2026, and the minutes of the September policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026. The captured calendars carry no petroleum inventory entry and no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday. The provider lists the November contract’s expiration as 10/20/26.
Three scenarios frame the full session. The low-range case runs 88.40 to 90.60, the mid-range case, which is the most likely, 87.90 to 91.30, and the high-range case 85.20 to 93.60. None carries a derived frequency. In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract beneath the 90.02 Pivot Point through the overnight hours. In the same judgment it offers a test of the 88.70 to 88.74 group of the 13-week retracement and Monday’s low before the 12:00 PM ET energy outlook. The weighting leans lower. A move toward Pivot S1 at 88.15 and one deviation support at 87.99 is weighted above a recovery through Pivot R1 at 91.29. Three readings carry that weighting. Monday settled beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages. The composite read fell to 24 percent buy with direction weakest. The dollar index closed at a 1.5-year high, per provider commentary. One alternative invalidates the reading. A Gulf escalation that lifts the contract through 91.92, three deviation resistance, and back toward 93.16 would do it.
In our judgment the single first-order event for crude on Tuesday is the 12:00 PM ET short-term energy outlook. Gulf headlines are the unscheduled risk in both directions.
Monday’s high stopped 52 cents short of the last entry band. Tuesday’s band sits between the pivot and that high.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
Carried below in the review’s own order: the level notes from sections 3.1 and 3.2, the executive summary from section 1, sections 2.1 to 2.6, sections 4.1 to 4.6, the coverage note from section 5, the session-by-session forecast from section 6, the Tuesday calendar from section 7 and the primary setup from section 8.
3.1 Resistance and 3.2 Support, level notes
The settle at 89.43 sits 59 cents beneath the Pivot Point at 90.02. The stochastic 20 percent threshold at 90.43 and the 14-day relative-strength 50 percent line at 90.50 come next, followed by the 5-day settlement average at 90.64 and one standard deviation resistance at 90.87.
Pivot R1 at 91.29 and the 11:00 AM ET bar high of 91.31 sit two cents apart, with two standard deviations resistance at 91.47 and the 9-day average crossing price at 91.60 above them. The 91.88 Monday high and three standard deviations resistance at 91.92 form the next band, followed by the 9-day average stall price at 92.16. Pivot R2 at 93.16 coincides with the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low, and Friday’s 93.51 high, the 18-day average crossing at 93.68 and the 20-day settlement average at 93.70 sit above it, with Pivot R3 at 94.43 the extended reference.
Beneath the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.70 and the 40-day average crossing price at 88.65 sit just under the 88.74 Monday low. Pivot S1 at 88.15 and one standard deviation support at 87.99 follow, then Friday’s 87.89 low, which is also the one-month low. Two standard deviations support at 87.39, the 3-10 day average crossover stall price at 87.21 and three standard deviations support at 86.94 come next, with Pivot S2 at 86.88, the 50-day settlement average at 86.00 and Pivot S3 at 85.01 the deeper references. The 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 84.69.
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 89.43 on Monday, down 1.68 points or 1.84 percent from Friday’s 2:30 PM ET settle of 91.11, after trading between 91.88 and 88.74, a 3.14 point daily range. The settle finished at 22.0 percent of the range, and the 3.14 point range was 0.69 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.53 points, the narrowest session since the 3.09 point range of 09/17. The settle was the lowest since the 89.38 settle of 09/29, and Monday was the second consecutive lower settle. Against Friday’s revised range of 93.51 to 87.89, Monday printed a lower high and a higher low, an inside session.
The provider’s 30-minute series fixes the order. The 91.88 session high printed in the very first bar after the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, the contract drifted lower through the Asian and early European hours to an 89.31 low in the 4:00 AM ET bar, rebounded to 91.22 in the 4:30 AM ET bar and to 91.31 in the 11:00 AM ET bar, and then lost ground into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The 2:00 PM ET bar traded down to 89.29 and closed at 89.33, and the 88.74 session low printed in the 2:30 PM ET bar, after the settlement had been struck. Provider commentary attributed the decline to a dollar index that reached a 1.5-year high and to a larger than expected cut by Saudi Arabia’s state producer to its November official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia, and said losses were limited after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an offensive against Houthi-held territory. Neither item carried a time stamp on the feeds captured for this session, so no bar is tied to either.
The dollar index rose 0.24 percent to 102.17 and the ten-year yield index closed four basis points higher at 5.31 percent. The services survey from the purchasing managers’ institute, released at 10:00 AM ET, printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast, per the news-feed calendar, while provider commentary said its prices-paid component rose to 74.0, a four-year high. Brent’s December contract settled at 100.32, down 1.93, so Brent’s premium over November WTI narrowed to 10.89 from 11.14. Gasoline fell 2.00 percent while heating oil rose 0.98 percent.
Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here; the published 14-day average true range of 4.20 points is 4.70 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 90.70 to 91.00 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 91.29 and around one standard deviation resistance at 90.87, stopped at 92.00 above the 91.88 Monday high, with objectives at 89.70, 88.55 and an extended 87.40.
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 91.77 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 66 cents above Friday’s settle, marked a daily high of 91.88 and a daily low of 88.74, and settled at 89.43 at 2:30 PM ET. The provider’s 30-minute series, 46 bars from the reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar, places the high in the 6:00 PM ET Sunday bar and the low in the 2:30 PM ET Monday bar.
The Asian hours carried a steady decline. The first bar closed at 91.29, the 7:30 PM ET bar at 90.85, the 8:30 PM ET bar at 90.34 and the 10:00 PM ET bar at 90.01. From midnight to the 3:30 AM ET bar the contract held between 89.52 and 90.43, and the 4:00 AM ET bar marked an 89.31 low before closing at 89.99. The 4:30 AM ET bar then rose to 91.22 and closed at 90.62, and the contract held between 89.84 and 91.02 from the 5:00 AM ET bar through the 6:30 AM ET bar.
The United States morning was two-sided. The 7:00 AM ET bar traded down to 89.42, the 9:00 AM ET bar to 89.12, and the 10:00 AM ET bar, which contained the services survey, traded between 89.11 and 90.17 and closed at 89.81. The 10:30 AM ET bar closed at 90.53 and the 11:00 AM ET bar reached 91.31 before closing at 90.72. From the 11:30 AM ET bar through the 1:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 89.66 and 90.82. The 2:00 PM ET bar traded from 90.14 down to 89.29 and closed at 89.33, and the settlement at 2:30 PM ET was 89.43.
After the 2:30 PM ET settlement, electronic trade marked the 88.74 session low in the 2:30 PM ET bar and then held between 88.81 and 89.43 from the 3:00 PM ET bar through the 4:30 PM ET bar, which closed at 89.30. These post-settlement prints are not used as the settlement anywhere here. The Tuesday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday; the provider’s day open, high and low of 89.27, 89.36 and 89.22 shown when the data were read belong to that new session, not to Monday.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 94.43 minus the third support point at 85.01, divided by three, returns 3.14, and the second resistance point at 93.16 minus the second support point at 86.88, divided by two, returns the same 3.14. Three times the Pivot Point of 90.02 less the 89.43 settle gives a high plus low sum of 180.63, one cent from the 180.62 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 91.88 and 88.74 reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider’s settlement row, the chart’s completed Monday daily bar and the highest and lowest bars of the 30-minute series carry the same 91.88 high and 88.74 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a lower high and a higher low against Friday: the 91.88 high sits 1.63 points beneath Friday’s 93.51, and the 88.74 low sits 85 cents above Friday’s 87.89. The provider revised Friday’s low to 87.89 from the 88.06 recorded in the Friday capture, and the 87.89 figure is also the provider’s one-month low dated 10/02/26. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 96.54, 94.74, 91.96, 93.68, 93.51 and 91.88, and the sequence of session lows reads 91.25, 88.78, 88.58, 88.79, 87.89 and 88.74.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 96.54 to 87.89, and Monday traded inside it. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 12.26 points above the settle. Settlements over the last six sessions ran 92.60, 89.38, 90.42, 92.87, 91.11 and 89.43.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The daily settlement sequence after the 09/15 peak reads 100.75, 97.51, 97.23, 96.08, 92.37, 90.52, 92.16, 94.61, 92.41, 92.60, 89.38, 90.42, 92.87, 91.11 and 89.43. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 3.24, 5.29, 5.96, 3.38, 4.89, 5.62 and 3.14.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.70, 73 cents beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 84.69. Above the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 93.16, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.79 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.42. No four-hour series was captured; the 30-minute series in section 2.1 is the only intraday evidence used.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider’s daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Monday. The 5-day average stands at 90.64, the 9-day at 91.67, the 20-day at 93.70, the 50-day at 86.00, the 100-day at 81.83 and the 200-day at 75.16.
The 89.43 settle sits 1.21 points beneath the 5-day average, 2.24 points beneath the 9-day and 4.27 points beneath the 20-day, and 3.43 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average fell 63 cents from Friday’s 91.28, because the 09/28 settle of 92.60 left the window and was replaced by 89.43. The 9-day average fell 12 cents from 91.79 as the 09/22 settle of 90.52 left its window, and the 20-day rose four cents from 93.66 as the 09/04 settle of 88.57 left.
The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 91.60 for the 9-day, 93.68 for the 18-day and 88.65 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider’s technical page dated for the Tuesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page may carry the live Globex price rather than the settle, so they are quoted as published. Relative strength reads 42.86 on the 9-day, 47.82 on the 14-day and 50.84 on the 20-day.
The stochastics sit low in their ranges. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 17.32 percent and the 14-day 12.11 percent, with the 14-day %K at 22.72 percent and %D at 21.16 percent. The published grid places the 14-3 day raw stochastic 20 percent threshold at 90.43 and its 30 percent threshold at 91.71.
The directional system still reads positive direction above negative direction. On the 9-day the directional index reads 22.10 with positive direction at 16.43 and negative direction at 13.66; on the 14-day it reads 25.44 with positive direction at 19.26 over negative at 14.16. Historic volatility reads 34.95 percent on the 9-day and 33.90 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is 24 percent buy, down from 32 percent buy in the prior session’s snapshot, with signal strength described as soft and direction as weakest. The snapshot history reads 48 percent buy a week ago and 80 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages hold, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads hold.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.20 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.53 points; the 9-day figures are 4.41 and 4.60, and the 20-day figures 3.99 and 4.53. Monday’s 3.14 point range was 0.69 times the 14-day average daily range.
A one-range projection from the 89.43 settle using the 14-day average true range frames Tuesday between 85.23 and 93.63. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 87.99 to 90.87, two spans 87.39 to 91.47 and three spans 86.94 to 91.92. These bands measure how settlements have dispersed, and the high and low can run beyond them.
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi and Russia Signals)
No producer-alliance statement was captured on Monday’s feeds. Provider commentary said Saudi Arabia’s state producer lowered its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian buyers by 5 dollars a barrel below the regional benchmark, against expectations of a 5 dollar increase, and that Saudi Arabia said flows through its East-West crude line had risen to 80 percent of capacity as of Saturday. Both are descriptions from provider commentary and were not measured here. An energy-news article on the feed at 6:01 PM ET described the Group of Seven reserve release as a temporary fix for the fuel market.
4.2 Inventory Data (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, Strategic Reserve)
The captured calendars carry no petroleum inventory entry for Monday. The calendar lists the short-term energy outlook with the winter fuels outlook at 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on October 7, 2026; the news-feed calendar lists the prior reading as a build of 0.922 million barrels. The captured calendars carry no private inventory survey entry for Tuesday, so none is asserted.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia and Ukraine, Venezuela)
Provider commentary said losses were limited after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an offensive to recapture Houthi-held territory in Yemen. After the settle, the news feed carried a Treasury notice at 3:38 PM ET that foreign banks may be sanctioned for business with Iran, and at 4:12 PM ET a Houthi statement claiming three military operations in Saudi Arabia, with no Saudi confirmation. Between 3:21 PM ET and 3:31 PM ET the President said he was always open to direct talks with Iran, that a specific threat had prompted bombers to be withdrawn from a base in the United Kingdom, and that the Saudi and Houthi conflict would work out. These are statements carried by the news feed, none confirmed here, and all of them came after the 2:30 PM ET settle.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilisation, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The product complex split. The November gasoline contract settled at 3.2462 dollars a gallon, down 0.0662 or 2.00 percent, and the November heating oil contract settled at 4.5452, up 0.0441 or 0.98 percent, per the provider’s records. On the settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, narrowed to 46.91 from 48.01, and the heating oil margin widened to 101.47 from 97.94.
At 3:29 PM ET the President said the problem with diesel is that Russian refineries are being hit, and at 3:22 PM ET that farmers would be helped with diesel, per the news feed. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (Dollar Index, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk Appetite)
The services survey at 10:00 AM ET printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast and 55.4 previously, with its employment component at 50.1 against 48.8, per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said the prices-paid component rose 1.4 points to 74.0, a four-year high, and that the ten-year Treasury yield touched a 24-year high during the session.
The dollar index closed at 102.17, up 0.24 points or 0.24 percent, after a session range of 101.86 to 102.54, per the provider’s quote; a news-feed article at 11:45 AM ET tied the move to French debt concerns. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.31 percent, up four basis points. Brent’s December contract settled at 100.32, down 1.93 or 1.89 percent, so its premium over November WTI narrowed to 10.89 from 11.14. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,773.95, up 0.66 percent, and gold’s December contract settled at 4,156.8, down 5.5 points or 0.13 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (Commitments Data, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The latest positioning report on the provider’s overview is still the one as of September 29, 2026: managed money long 209,028 contracts against short 129,436, a net long of 79,592, with commercials 873,637 long against 1,016,255 short, a net short of 142,618. The overview read for this session shows that September 29 report as its latest, so no change in positioning is asserted for Monday.
The provider’s overview shows open interest on the November contract at 258,251, which is Friday’s figure; Monday’s open interest had not been reported at the time of capture, so no change in open interest is asserted for Monday.
The dated 10/02 row of the provider’s daily record carries the same 258,251 open interest, against 276,494 on the 10/01 row, and the 10/05 row carries no open interest value. Volume on the dated 10/05 row was 247,100 contracts, against 355,302 on the 10/02 row.
5. No liquid options proxy
Crude is covered here without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider’s daily record, the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1, or bars in the provider’s 30-minute series.
This is a statement about coverage, and listed crude options do exist. No such dataset was read, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the weekly inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex and Asia)
The contract reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday with the Houthi claim of operations in Saudi Arabia and the Treasury notice on Iran-linked banks both arriving after the settle. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Monday’s Asian hours carried the contract from the 91.88 opening high to an 89.60 low in the 2:00 AM ET bar, so the overnight window has recent evidence of selling. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 90.02 Pivot Point, expected Globex band roughly 88.40 to 90.60 absent a headline shock.
London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
The United Kingdom construction survey is listed at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed; neither is a first-order crude event. Monday’s 4:30 AM ET bar rose 1.91 points from the 4:00 AM ET low, so the London hours have shown two-way swings of that size. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 88.30 to 90.90.
Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, United States Open and Pit Session)
The trade balance is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, on the calendar, forecast at a deficit of 102 billion dollars against 88.6 billion, per the news-feed calendar. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 9:05 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Vice Chair for Supervision speaks at 10:45 AM ET, on the calendar. These reach crude through the dollar. Expected band roughly 88.20 to 91.00, with the 90.87 to 91.29 band the first resistance.
Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Tuesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The short-term energy outlook with the winter fuels outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, on the calendar, the most crude-specific scheduled item of the day. A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET; Monday’s decline into the settle ran from the 2:00 PM ET bar. Expected band roughly 88.00 to 90.80.
Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The next weekly petroleum status report follows at 10:30 AM ET on October 7, 2026, on the calendar, and the minutes of the September policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, on the calendar.
Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 88.40 to 90.60. Mid-range scenario (most likely): 87.90 to 91.30. High-range scenario: 85.20 to 93.60.
Most Likely Path
In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract beneath the 90.02 Pivot Point through the overnight hours and offers a test of the 88.70 to 88.74 group of the 13-week retracement and Monday’s low before the 12:00 PM ET energy outlook. A move toward Pivot S1 at 88.15 and one standard deviation support at 87.99 is weighted above a recovery through Pivot R1 at 91.29, because Monday settled beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages, the composite read fell to 24 percent buy with direction weakest, and the dollar index closed at a 1.5-year high per provider commentary. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a Gulf escalation that lifts the contract through 91.92, three standard deviations resistance, and back toward 93.16.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
The Tuesday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, the United Kingdom construction survey at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
The United States morning carries the trade balance at 8:30 AM ET, on the calendar, a regional Federal Reserve president at 9:05 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Vice Chair for Supervision at 10:45 AM ET, on the calendar. The short-term energy outlook with the winter fuels outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, on the calendar. A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET and another at 7:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no petroleum inventory entry and no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday.
The November contract’s expiration is listed as 10/20/26 by the provider. In our judgment the single first-order event for crude on Tuesday is the 12:00 PM ET short-term energy outlook, on the calendar, with Gulf headlines the unscheduled risk in both directions. The next weekly petroleum status report follows at 10:30 AM ET on October 7, 2026, on the calendar.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: Monday settled beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages at the lowest settle since 09/29, the composite read fell to 24 percent buy with direction weakest, and provider commentary tied the decline to a stronger dollar and a Saudi price cut to Asia; a rally into one standard deviation resistance beneath Pivot R1 at 91.29 offers a short with a defined risk point above the 91.88 Monday high. Monday’s rebounds to 91.22 and 91.31 show buyers still respond to Gulf headlines, so the setup is an analyst judgment against live headline risk.
Entry Zone: 90.70 to 91.00
Stop Loss: 92.00 (above three standard deviations resistance at 91.92 and the 91.88 Monday high)
Target 1 (T1): 89.70 (27 cents above the 89.43 Monday settle)
Target 2 (T2): 88.55 (19 cents beneath the 88.74 Monday low)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 87.40 (one cent above two standard deviations support at 87.39)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 91.29 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above 91.47, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 91.47.
Macro override: A confirmed escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis that threatens Red Sea or Gulf tanker traffic, or an abrupt reversal in the dollar, would restore the supply premium. In that scenario a gap above the 92.00 stop removes the short before entry, and the 93.16 to 93.70 band becomes the reference within one 14-day average true range of 4.20 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November NYMEX WTI crude contract, CLX26, the November ’26 month, tracked on the continuous CL1! chart and prepared after Monday’s close on October 5, 2026 for the Tuesday, October 6, 2026 session. The contract domain was checked before any level was used: the daily chart’s current Tuesday bar and its stated change return a prior close of 89.43, equal to the provider’s published previous close, and the chart’s completed Monday bar equals the provider’s settlement row, so chart and levels sit on the same November contract. The Globex session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday, so the day high, day low and open on the provider’s overview page belong to the Tuesday session and are not used as Monday’s range.
Monday’s session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs, checked against all seven published rungs and reproduced by the chart’s daily bar, the settlement row and the 30-minute series. The 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages were computed from the provider’s 259-session daily settlement series, which leaves out the partial Tuesday row. Volume and open interest are quoted from the dated rows of that daily record for 10/01, 10/02 and 10/05; the 10/05 row carries volume 247,100 but no open interest value, so no Monday open interest is stated. The provider revised the 10/02 row after Monday’s outlook was written: it now reads a low of 87.89, volume 355,302 and open interest 258,251, where that outlook cited an 88.06 low, 326,828 volume and no open interest value. This outlook uses the revised row; the chart still shows 88.06 for Friday. Oscillator readings are cited as published. Every intraday ordering claim rests on the provider’s 30-minute series for Monday, 46 bars from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, so no gamma, dealer-positioning or options-flow claim is made. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar captured for this session; catalysts whose time had passed at 6:18 PM ET, when collection began, are recorded as completed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Monday’s grade uses Monday’s open, high, low and settle as stated in tonight’s review and the dated 10/05 row of the daily record, which agree, the 30-minute series for the order of prints, and the setup card as published on Monday’s outlook.
Not captured, and stated nowhere as a figure: a four-hour series, a prior-quarter high or low, a producer-alliance statement, a petroleum inventory entry for Monday, a private inventory survey entry for Tuesday, a refinery utilisation figure, a seasonal demand series, Monday’s open interest, a positioning report newer than September 29, and a time stamp for the Saudi price cut or the Yemen offensive.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and Monday’s gold outlook is here. Outlooks for the equity index, technology index, gold and crude contracts are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
