At 3:00 PM ET on Monday the December Nasdaq-100 contract printed 31,371.00. That high cleared the prior 31,336 52-week high by 35.00 points, so 31,371.00 is now the 52-week high on the December contract. The climb began at the 9:30 AM ET cash open, after a slide to 30,957.50 in the 5:30 AM ET bar. Provider commentary said the Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at a record high, led by the largest technology companies.
Settlement came at 31,317.75, up 256.00 points or 0.82 percent from Friday's 31,061.75. It was a fifth consecutive higher settle, and the settle sits above every settlement since 09/25/25. The 413.50 point range ran 0.85 times the published 14-day average daily range of 488.64 points. The settle finished at 87.1 percent of it, 53.25 points beneath the high. Yields rose too. The ten-year yield index closed four basis points higher at 5.31 percent. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday, and Tuesday's first-order event is the 1:00 PM ET three-year note auction, listed on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 31,317.75, up 256.00 points, at 87.1 percent of a 413.50 point range and 102.33 points above the Pivot Point at 31,215.42. The 31,371.00 high is now the 52-week high on the December contract. Monday's row on the provider's daily record shows volume of 459,389 contracts and open interest of 281,627, up from 280,445 on Friday. The composite multi-indicator read holds at 88 percent buy, direction strongest. Every settlement average sits beneath the settle. Overhead: the 31,325.00 and 31,348.00 late prints, the 31,371.00 high, Pivot R1 at 31,473.33, the 31,487.67 target price and the 31,553.08 to 31,553.89 pair. Beneath: the 31,291.25 pullback low, the 31,241.31 conversion, the Pivot Point, the 31,061.75 to 31,059.83 pair and the 30,957.50 low. The primary setup is a long from 31,180 to 31,220, stop 31,040, targets 31,360, 31,520 and 31,680. The first-order event is the 1:00 PM ET three-year note auction, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Monday settled 377.75 points above the untouched 30,900 to 30,940 band
Our Monday outlook set a long from 30,900 to 30,940 with a stop at 30,740 and targets at 31,100, 31,280 and 31,460. Monday's completed bar, on the provider's daily record, opened at 31,059.00, marked a high of 31,371.00 and a low of 30,957.50, and settled at 31,317.75. Tonight's review states the same open, high, low and settle. Price never reached the band. The low stopped 17.50 points above its upper edge, and the 30,740 stop sat 217.50 points beneath that low. Above, the high ran 271.00 points through the 31,100 first target level and 91.00 through the 31,280 second. The 31,460 extension stayed 89.00 points out of reach.
The 30-minute series gives the order. The session opened at 31,059.00 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.75 points beneath Friday's settle and 119.00 above the band. That first bar was the first to trade above 31,100, reaching 31,147.75. The low came later, in the 5:30 AM ET bar. Nothing traded above 31,280 before the 1:00 PM ET bar. The highest earlier print, 31,274.75 in the 12:30 PM ET bar, stopped 5.25 points short. The 1:00 PM ET bar reached 31,288.25. No bar traded into the band. Bars show sequence only. With the zone untouched, no fill and no result is asserted. Settlement landed at 31,317.75, 377.75 points above the band's upper edge.
Two session bands held and two gave way. The Globex band of 30,900 to 31,200 held the low, 103.75 points above its bottom, while the 31,221.25 print in the 9:30 PM ET bar ran 21.25 points over its top. The European band of 30,950 to 31,250 held everything. Its 30,957.50 low sat 7.50 points above the bottom. The morning band of 30,900 to 31,350 also held, with the 31,254.75 morning high 95.25 points beneath its top. The afternoon band's 31,300 top gave way by 71.00 points to the 31,371.00 high. Across the full session the high cleared the 31,250 top of the low-range case by 121.00 points and the 31,340 top of the mid-range case by 31.00. The settle landed inside the mid-range case, 22.25 points beneath its top. The high-range case of 30,590 to 31,530 held the whole session.
The weighted path ran late. We had the reopened contract holding above the 30,866.88 one-deviation support and the 31,034.83 Pivot Point through the Asian session. The first held, with the low 90.62 points above it. The second gave way. The 12:30 AM ET bar dipped to 31,034.75, 0.08 points beneath that Pivot Point, and the 2:30 AM ET bar reached 31,003.75, 31.08 beneath it. The retest of the 31,282.50 high and Pivot R1 at 31,309.42 was set for the United States morning. The morning topped at 31,254.75, 27.75 points short of that high. The 1:00 PM ET bar cleared it, and the 1:30 PM ET bar ran 9.33 points through Pivot R1, to 31,318.75.
Neither invalidation test triggered. The settle finished 530.58 points above the 30,787.17 Pivot S1 threshold. The lowest 30-minute close of the session, 30,978.50 in the 6:00 AM ET bar, held 178.50 points above 30,800, so no pair of closes fell beneath it. The macro override named a weekend geopolitical shock, a jump in yields after the services survey or a reversal in the semiconductor group. The survey printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast, per the news-feed calendar. The ten-year yield index closed four basis points higher, at 5.31 percent, and provider commentary said the yield touched a 24-year high during the session. The semiconductor index rose 0.27 percent. We grade the card as written.
A 30,957.50 low at 5:30 AM ET, a 31,371.00 high at 3:00 PM ET
Monday opened at 31,059.00 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.75 points beneath Friday's settle. The Asian hours rose first. The 6:00 PM ET bar closed at 31,134.75, and the 9:30 PM ET bar reached 31,221.25. The 10:30 PM ET bar fell to 31,100.25. From the 11:00 PM ET bar through the 4:00 AM ET bar the contract held between 31,003.75 and 31,129.50.
The European morning drifted lower. The 4:30 AM ET bar fell to 30,974.75, and the 5:30 AM ET bar printed the 30,957.50 session low, 263.75 points beneath the Sunday-evening high. From the 6:00 AM ET bar through the 9:00 AM ET bar the contract held between 30,960.00 and 31,070.25.
At the cash open the session changed. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose from 31,055.50 to 31,229.50 and closed at 31,155.25. That 99.75 point open-to-close advance was the largest of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 10:00 AM ET bar contained the services survey. It traded between 31,115.00 and 31,247.75 and closed at 31,232.75. A midday band followed. From the 10:30 AM ET bar through the 12:00 PM ET bar the contract held between 31,192.25 and 31,254.75.
The afternoon climbed in steps. The 12:30 PM ET bar reached 31,274.75, the 1:00 PM ET bar 31,288.25, the 1:30 PM ET bar 31,318.75 and the 2:30 PM ET bar 31,325.00. The 3:00 PM ET bar printed the 31,371.00 session high and closed at 31,355.00. The 3:30 PM ET bar traded back to 31,291.25, 79.75 points beneath the high, before closing at 31,338.00. Settlement at 4:00 PM ET was 31,317.75. After it, the 4:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars held between 31,318.25 and 31,348.00, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,339.50. The preserved provider series holds 46 bars from the reopen through that bar.
Tuesday's session is already open. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday. The provider's day open, high and low of 31,346.75, 31,385.25 and 31,344.50, shown at the time of writing, belong to that new session and not to Monday. None of them is used as a Monday figure.
Those extremes also come from the ladder. Monday's high and low are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 31,886.83 minus the third support point at 30,646.33, divided by three, returns 413.50. The second pair, 31,628.92 and 30,801.92, divided by two, returns the same 413.50. Three times the 31,215.42 Pivot Point less the settle gives 62,328.51, one hundredth from the 62,328.50 sum of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Monday bar and the extremes of the 30-minute series carry the same high and low.
Against Friday the bar stepped up at both ends. The high sits 88.50 points above Friday's 31,282.50, and the low 197.25 above Friday's 30,760.25. Activity cooled. Monday's row on the provider's daily record shows volume of 459,389 contracts against 581,527 on Friday's row as now published. Open interest reads 281,627 on Monday's row, up from 280,445 on Friday's.
The prior week is now beneath it. That week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 31,282.50 to 30,356.75, and Monday's high cleared its top by 88.50 points. It also cleared the prior 31,336 52-week high on the December contract by 35.00 points, so the 31,371.00 high is now the 52-week high. The settle sits 53.25 points beneath it. The one-month low of 29,053.00 from 09/16 sits 2,264.75 points beneath the settle. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
Five higher settles in a row. Settlements over the last six sessions ran 30,566.25, 30,613.25, 30,698.75, 30,760.50, 31,061.75 and 31,317.75, gains of 47.00, 85.50, 61.75, 301.25 and 256.00 after the 323.00 point decline of 09/28. Together the five gains add 751.50 points. Session highs over the same six sessions read 30,920.75, 30,725.50, 30,906.00, 31,151.50, 31,282.50 and 31,371.00, and session lows 30,356.75, 30,372.00, 30,512.25, 30,529.25, 30,760.25 and 30,957.50. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 320.50, 564.00, 353.50, 393.75, 622.25, 522.25 and 413.50. Ranges narrowed for a second session. The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,485.52 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,212.00. No four-hour series was captured. The 30-minute series is the only intraday evidence used.
Every average sits beneath the settle. Computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions through Monday, the 5-day stands at 30,890.40, the 9-day at 30,826.56, the 20-day at 30,277.58, the 50-day at 29,866.11, the 100-day at 29,986.72 and the 200-day at 28,102.88. The settle sits 427.35 points above the 5-day, 491.19 above the 9-day, 1,040.17 above the 20-day and 1,451.65 above the 50-day. It is 1,331.03 above the 100-day and 3,214.87 above the 200-day.
Window arithmetic explains the moves. The 5-day rose 150.30 points from Friday's 30,740.10, because the 09/28 settle of 30,566.25 left the window and was replaced by 31,317.75. The 9-day rose 32.14 from 30,794.42 as the 09/22 settle of 31,028.50 left, and the 20-day rose 72.88 from 30,204.70 as the 09/04 settle of 29,860.25 left. The 100-day sits 120.62 points above the 50-day. Its older 50 settles averaged 30,107.34, higher than the latest 50. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 30,834.28 for the 9-day, 30,385.28 for the 18-day and 30,066.22 for the 40-day.
Momentum is stretched. The oscillator figures are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Tuesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the page may carry the live Globex price in place of the settle. Relative strength reads 73.45 on the 9-day, 67.51 on the 14-day and 63.07 on the 20-day. The stochastics sit at the top of their ranges. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 94.75 percent and the 14-day 97.70 percent, with the 14-day %K at 89.72 percent above %D at 84.40 percent.
Direction reads positive above negative. On the 9-day the directional index reads 27.34, with positive direction at 27.78 and negative at 11.85; on the 14-day it reads 18.22, with positive direction at 26.48 against negative at 14.55. Historic volatility reads 10.09 percent on the 9-day and 14.53 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is 88 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as good and direction as strongest. A week ago it also read 88 percent buy. A month ago, 40 percent buy. The short-horizon and medium-horizon groups both average 100 percent buy, the long-horizon group 33 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
Volatility frames Tuesday. The published 14-day average true range stands at 466.56 points, 1.49 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 488.64; the 9-day figures are 465.84 and 455.47, and the 20-day figures 477.50 and 459.77. One 14-day average true range either side of the settle spans 30,851.19 to 31,784.31. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower, built from five settlements. One deviation spans 31,025.17 to 31,610.33, two span 30,903.98 to 31,731.52 and three span 30,810.99 to 31,824.51. Those bands describe settlement dispersion only, not intraday reach.
A 54.9 services print, a 5.31 percent ten-year and a 0.27 percent chip gain
Start with the survey. The services survey from the purchasing managers' institute, released at 10:00 AM ET, printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast and 55.4 previously, with its employment component at 50.1 against 48.8, per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said the prices-paid component rose to 74.0, a four-year high. It also said the services price pressure limited stock gains.
Yields rose through the day. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.31 percent, up four basis points, and provider commentary said the ten-year yield touched a 24-year high during the session. The contract advanced through the session despite the higher yield. It rose from 31,155.25 at the close of the 9:30 AM ET bar to 31,355.00 at the close of the 3:00 PM ET bar, 199.75 points between those closes. The calendar lists the minutes of the September policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026.
Large technology led. The desk note said the largest technology companies outperformed, with the fund that tracks them up 1 percent, and that about 90 percent of the bullish hedging flow in single stocks was concentrated in them. Provider commentary said strength in those companies supported the broader market. The desk note also said the S&P 500 traded an 87 basis point range with the volatility complex quiet. The cash index closed at 31,076.44, up 0.87 percent, and the technology fund at 756.20, up 0.88 percent, per the provider's quotes.
Chips lagged. The semiconductor index closed at 13,172.74, up 0.27 percent, per the provider's quote, a smaller gain than the Nasdaq-100's 0.87 percent. Provider commentary cited merger activity. An industrial electrical-equipment maker agreed to buy an industrial software company for 22.6 billion dollars, and a logistics company agreed to buy a freight-brokerage company for 5.8 billion dollars. The technology fund's 756.20 close sits above the 748.64 52-week high shown on the positioning console.
Financing headlines came after the close. Press reports carried by the news feed at 5:00 PM ET said banks launched a record 60 billion dollar financing for a large chip designer and an AI developer, and at 4:46 PM ET that another AI developer has held talks on a 30 billion dollar funding round. Earlier, from 2:14 PM ET to 2:20 PM ET, press reports said two large technology companies are reducing staff use of an AI developer's assistant. These are reports carried by the news feed and were not confirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday.
Geopolitics ran into the close. The news feed carried a Treasury notice at 3:38 PM ET that foreign banks may be sanctioned for business with Iran. After the cash close, at 4:12 PM ET, it carried a Houthi statement claiming three military operations in Saudi Arabia, with no Saudi confirmation. A news-feed article at 11:45 AM ET tied the dollar's rise to French debt concerns. These, too, are reports carried by the news feed and were not confirmed.
The broad market trailed. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,773.95, up 0.66 percent, so the Nasdaq-100 cash index outperformed by 0.21 percentage points. The volatility index closed at 15.52, up 0.21, and the Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge at 21.70, up 0.50. The dollar index rose 0.24 percent to 102.17. Gold's December contract eased 0.13 percent to 4,156.8, and November crude fell 1.84 percent to 89.43.
Positioning reports lag. The latest positioning report on the provider's overview is the one as of September 29, 2026: asset managers long 108,558 contracts against short 38,814, and leveraged funds long 48,150 against short 72,873. That report is still the overview's latest, so no change in positioning is asserted for Monday.
The desk note comes next. The edition used is the 5:32 PM ET note for Monday, read at 6:19 PM ET, and its reference prices are the prior session's closes. The cash index reference of 30,807 equals Friday's 30,807.93 close, and the fund reference of 749 equals Friday's 749.58. Every level is therefore read against Monday's closes: 31,076.44 for the cash index and 756.20 for the technology fund.
The fund proxy reads long gamma. Its primary call-side ceiling sits at 760, the modeled volatility threshold at 749, the modeled gamma-flip level at 742, the largest gamma concentration at 740 and the primary put-side support base at 700. The fund closed at 756.20. That is 3.80 beneath the 760 ceiling and above the threshold, the flip and the largest concentration. Gamma tilt reads 1.068 and the gamma notional plus 246.704 million dollars, so the proxy's dealers carry a net long gamma position. The 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.026. Put volume of 1.668 million contracts exceeded call volume of 1.084 million. The note lists 740, 750, 760 and 730 as key strikes. The fund console was marked as updated 2026-10-03 and still showed Thursday's 742.04 previous close and the same nearest-expiration shares as Friday's edition, so its figures are treated as stale and not used.
Now the cash index. Its call-side ceiling and largest gamma concentration both sit at 31,000, which the 31,076.44 close now exceeds. The modeled volatility threshold sits at 30,490 and the modeled gamma-flip level at 30,043, with the primary put-side support base at 28,000. The key strikes are 31,000, 30,000, 29,475 and 31,100, and the combination levels 31,239, 30,993, 31,024 and 31,085. Gamma tilt on the index reads 1.721, with a gamma notional of 14.615 million dollars.
Conversions carry two cash levels into futures. At the measured closing basis of 241.31 points, Monday's 31,317.75 settlement less the 31,076.44 cash close, cash 31,000 corresponds to 31,241.31 on the December contract and the modeled volatility threshold at 30,490 to 30,731.31. These are conversions made by this review. The source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled threshold is not a listed strike. The fund serves as the positioning proxy for the dataset available. It stays secondary to technical structure and to the large-cap and semiconductor drivers. In this review's interpretation the proxy's net long gamma with the fund just beneath its 760 ceiling favours slower, mean-reverting trade near the ceiling on Tuesday, not an extension.
The trade map for Tuesday
The primary setup is a long from 31,180 to 31,220, a pullback zone around the 31,215.42 Pivot Point. The case rests on the run. Monday produced a fifth consecutive higher settle, finishing at 87.1 percent of its range and above every settlement since 09/25/25, with the composite read at 88 percent buy and direction strongest. The stop at 31,040 sits beneath Pivot S1 at 31,059.83 and Friday's 31,061.75 settle. Two readings cut the other way. The 9-day relative strength reads 73.45, and the technology fund closed just beneath its 760 ceiling. So the setup is an analyst judgment that trend persistence outweighs overbought readings. The 14-day average true range of 466.56 points compares with a 160 point stop distance from the 31,200 midpoint. The settle sits 97.75 points above the top of the zone.
Overhead the references start 7.25 points above the settle, at the 31,325.00 high of the 2:30 PM ET bar, the top of the late-session band. The 31,348.00 post-settlement high in the 4:30 PM ET bar comes next, then the 31,371.00 Monday high in the 3:00 PM ET bar, now the 52-week high on the December contract. The new Tuesday session had already printed 31,385.25 at the time of writing. Pivot R1 at 31,473.33 and the 31,487.67 target price follow. The 14-day relative-strength 70 percent line at 31,553.08 and the 3-10 day crossover stall at 31,553.89 sit 0.81 points apart, with one standard deviation resistance at 31,610.33 and Pivot R2 at 31,628.92 above them. Two standard deviations resistance at 31,731.52, three at 31,824.51 and Pivot R3 at 31,886.83 are the extended references.
Support starts 26.50 points beneath the settle, at the 31,291.25 pullback low of the 3:30 PM ET bar. The 31,241.31 conversion of the cash 31,000 ceiling sits above the entry zone, and the 31,215.42 Pivot Point sits inside it. Beneath the zone, Friday's 31,061.75 settle and Pivot S1 at 31,059.83 sit 1.92 points apart, both above the 31,040 stop. One standard deviation support at 31,025.17 and the 30,957.50 Monday low come next. Two standard deviations support at 30,903.98 and the 5-day average at 30,890.40 follow. The 9-day crossing at 30,834.28, three standard deviations support at 30,810.99 and Pivot S2 at 30,801.92 form a band 32.36 points wide. The 30,731.31 threshold conversion, Pivot S3 at 30,646.33 and the 38.2 percent retracement at 30,485.52 are the deeper references. Three more lie beyond. They are the 18-day crossing at 30,385.28, the 50 percent retracement at 30,212.00 and the 40-day crossing at 30,066.22.
The night comes first. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday, after the after-hours financing and funding reports, and the new session had printed 31,385.25 by the time of writing. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias reads constructive above the 31,215.42 Pivot Point, with an expected Globex band of roughly 31,150 to 31,480.
Europe follows. The United Kingdom construction survey is listed at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, both on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Monday's session low printed in the 5:30 AM ET bar, so the European morning carried the most recent selling. Bias reads neutral to constructive, with an expected band of roughly 31,100 to 31,450.
Then the cash open. The calendar lists the trade balance at 8:30 AM ET and the Vice Chair for Supervision at 10:45 AM ET. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 9:05 AM ET, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test. On Monday the 9:30 AM ET bar carried the largest open-to-close advance of any 30-minute bar in the session, 99.75 points. The morning band runs roughly 31,150 to 31,500.
The afternoon carries the auction. The calendar lists the short-term energy outlook at 12:00 PM ET. A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET, both on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The auction reaches the index through yields, the channel provider commentary said limited Monday's gains. The afternoon band runs roughly 31,200 to 31,550 into the 4:00 PM ET settlement. Another regional president is listed at 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday. In this review's judgment the single first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday is the 1:00 PM ET auction, on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, because the ten-year yield closed near a 24-year high, per provider commentary.
Three scenarios frame the day. Across the full session the low-range case runs 31,150 to 31,480, the mid-range and most likely case 31,060 to 31,610 and the high-range case 30,850 to 31,790. All three nest. In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract above the 31,215.42 Pivot Point after a test of the 31,371.00 52-week high, with a move to Pivot R1 at 31,473.33 weighted above a return to Pivot S1 at 31,059.83. The weighting rests on four grounds. The fifth consecutive higher settle. The settle near the top of its range. The 88 percent buy composite with direction strongest. And positive direction above negative on the directional system. In the same judgment the stretch of 427.35 points above the 5-day average and the fund just beneath its 760 ceiling argue for pullbacks before extension. A yield spike around the 1:00 PM ET auction that returns the contract beneath 31,059.83 would invalidate this reading.
Monday's high is now the 52-week high, and the settle sits 53.25 points beneath it with an auction still ahead.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level map, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Cash-index levels at the measured 241.31 point basis: the 31,000 call-side ceiling and largest gamma concentration translates to 31,241.31 in futures and the 30,490 modeled volatility threshold to 30,731.31. No other cash level is translated.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
3.1 Resistance, level by level
The settle at 31,317.75 sits beneath the 31,371.00 Monday high in the 3:00 PM ET bar, now the 52-week high on the December contract, and the new Tuesday session had already printed 31,385.25 at the time of writing. Pivot R1 at 31,473.33 and the target price published for Tuesday at 31,487.67 come next. The 14-day relative-strength 70 percent line at 31,553.08 and the 3-10 day average crossover stall price at 31,553.89 coincide, with one standard deviation resistance at 31,610.33 and Pivot R2 at 31,628.92 above them. Two standard deviations resistance at 31,731.52, three standard deviations resistance at 31,824.51 and Pivot R3 at 31,886.83 are the extended references.
3.2 Support, level by level
Around the settle, the 3:30 PM ET pullback low at 31,291.25 and the 2:30 PM ET bar high at 31,325.00 frame the late-session band. The Pivot Point at 31,215.42 is the first published reference, followed by Friday's 31,061.75 settle and Pivot S1 at 31,059.83, which sit 1.92 points apart. One standard deviation support at 31,025.17 and the 30,957.50 Monday low in the 5:30 AM ET bar come next, then two standard deviations support at 30,903.98 and the 5-day settlement average at 30,890.40. The 9-day average crossing price at 30,834.28, three standard deviations support at 30,810.99 and Pivot S2 at 30,801.92 form a band 32.36 points wide, with Pivot S3 at 30,646.33 the deeper reference.
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 31,317.75 on Monday, up 256.00 points or 0.82 percent from Friday's 31,061.75 settle, after trading between 31,371.00 and 30,957.50, a 413.50 point daily range. The settle finished at 87.1 percent of the range, and the 413.50 point range was 0.85 times the published 14-day average daily range of 488.64 points. Monday was the fifth consecutive higher settle, the settle sits above every settlement since 09/25/25, and the 31,371.00 high cleared the prior 31,336 52-week high and is now the 52-week high on the December contract. Against Friday, Monday printed a higher high and a higher low.
The preserved 30-minute series fixes the order. The contract reached 31,221.25 in the 9:30 PM ET Sunday bar, drifted lower through the European morning to the 30,957.50 session low in the 5:30 AM ET bar, and then rose from the 9:30 AM ET cash open, when the 9:30 AM ET bar reached 31,229.50. The advance continued in steps through the afternoon to the 31,371.00 session high in the 3:00 PM ET bar, and the 3:30 PM ET bar traded back to 31,291.25 before the settle. Provider commentary said the Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at a record high, led by the largest technology companies, and the desk note said the S&P 500 traded an 87 basis point range with the volatility complex quiet.
The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 31,076.44, up 0.87 percent, and the QQQ fund at 756.20, up 0.88 percent, per the provider's quotes. The services survey from the purchasing managers' institute, released at 10:00 AM ET, printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast, per the news-feed calendar, and the ten-year yield index closed four basis points higher at 5.31 percent while the dollar index rose 0.24 percent to 102.17. The Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge (VXN) rose 0.50 to 21.70.
The composite multi-indicator read is 88 percent buy with strength good and direction strongest, while relative strength on the 9-day reads 73.45. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 31,180 to 31,220 band around the 31,215.42 Pivot Point, stopped at 31,040 beneath Pivot S1 at 31,059.83, with objectives at 31,360, 31,520 and an extended 31,680.
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 31,059.00 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.75 points beneath Friday's settle, marked a daily high of 31,371.00 and a daily low of 30,957.50, and settled at 31,317.75. The preserved 30-minute provider series, 46 bars from the reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar, places the low in the 5:30 AM ET bar and the high in the 3:00 PM ET bar.
The Asian hours rose first. The 6:00 PM ET bar closed at 31,134.75, and the contract reached 31,221.25 in the 9:30 PM ET bar. The 10:30 PM ET bar fell to 31,100.25, and from the 11:00 PM ET bar through the 4:00 AM ET bar the contract held between 31,003.75 and 31,129.50. The 4:30 AM ET bar fell to 30,974.75, and the 5:30 AM ET bar printed the 30,957.50 session low. From the 6:00 AM ET bar through the 9:00 AM ET bar the contract held between 30,960.00 and 31,070.25.
The cash open changed the session. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose from 31,055.50 to 31,229.50 and closed at 31,155.25, and the 10:00 AM ET bar, which contained the services survey, traded between 31,115.00 and 31,247.75 and closed at 31,232.75. From the 10:30 AM ET bar through the 12:00 PM ET bar the contract held between 31,192.25 and 31,254.75. The 12:30 PM ET bar reached 31,274.75, the 1:00 PM ET bar 31,288.25, the 1:30 PM ET bar 31,318.75 and the 2:30 PM ET bar 31,325.00. The 3:00 PM ET bar printed the 31,371.00 session high and closed at 31,355.00, and the 3:30 PM ET bar traded back to 31,291.25 before closing at 31,338.00.
After the cash close, electronic trade held between 31,318.25 and 31,348.00 in the 4:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,339.50. The Tuesday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday; the provider's day open, high and low of 31,346.75, 31,385.25 and 31,344.50 shown at the time of writing belong to that new session, not to Monday.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder and were not read independently from a bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 31,886.83 minus the third support point at 30,646.33, divided by three, returns 413.50, and the second resistance point at 31,628.92 minus the second support point at 30,801.92, divided by two, returns the same 413.50. Three times the Pivot Point of 31,215.42 less the 31,317.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 62,328.51, one hundredth from the 62,328.50 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 31,371.00 and 30,957.50 reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Monday daily bar and the highest and lowest bars of the 30-minute series carry the same high and low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a higher high and a higher low against Friday: the 31,371.00 high sits 88.50 points above Friday's 31,282.50, and the 30,957.50 low sits 197.25 points above Friday's 30,760.25. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 30,920.75, 30,725.50, 30,906.00, 31,151.50, 31,282.50 and 31,371.00, and the sequence of session lows reads 30,356.75, 30,372.00, 30,512.25, 30,529.25, 30,760.25 and 30,957.50.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 31,282.50 to 30,356.75, and Monday's high cleared it. Monday's 31,371.00 high cleared the prior 31,336 52-week high on the December contract by 35.00 points and is now the 52-week high, 53.25 points above the settle; the one-month low of 29,053.00 from 09/16 sits 2,264.75 points beneath it.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Settlements over the last six sessions ran 30,566.25, 30,613.25, 30,698.75, 30,760.50, 31,061.75 and 31,317.75, gains of 47.00, 85.50, 61.75, 301.25 and 256.00 after the 323.00 point decline of 09/28. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 320.50, 564.00, 353.50, 393.75, 622.25, 522.25 and 413.50.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,485.52 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,212.00. No four-hour series was captured; the 30-minute series in section 2.1 is the only intraday evidence used.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Monday. The 5-day average stands at 30,890.40, the 9-day at 30,826.56, the 20-day at 30,277.58, the 50-day at 29,866.11, the 100-day at 29,986.72 and the 200-day at 28,102.88.
The 31,317.75 settle sits 427.35 points above the 5-day average, 491.19 above the 9-day, 1,040.17 above the 20-day, 1,451.65 above the 50-day, 1,331.03 above the 100-day and 3,214.87 above the 200-day. The 5-day average rose 150.30 points from Friday's 30,740.10, because the 09/28 settle of 30,566.25 left the window and was replaced by 31,317.75. The 9-day rose 32.14 points from 30,794.42 as the 09/22 settle of 31,028.50 left its window, and the 20-day rose 72.88 points from 30,204.70 as the 09/04 settle of 29,860.25 left.
The 100-day average sits 120.62 points above the 50-day because the older 50 settlements in the 100-day window averaged 30,107.34, higher than the latest 50. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 30,834.28 for the 9-day, 30,385.28 for the 18-day and 30,066.22 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Tuesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page may carry the live Globex price in place of the settle, so they are quoted as published. Relative strength reads 73.45 on the 9-day, 67.51 on the 14-day and 63.07 on the 20-day.
The stochastics sit at the top of their ranges. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 94.75 percent and the 14-day 97.70 percent, with the 14-day %K at 89.72 percent and %D at 84.40 percent.
The directional system reads positive direction above negative direction. On the 9-day the directional index reads 27.34 with positive direction at 27.78 and negative direction at 11.85; on the 14-day it reads 18.22 with positive direction at 26.48 over negative at 14.55. Historic volatility reads 10.09 percent on the 9-day and 14.53 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is 88 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as good and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 88 percent buy a week ago and 40 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon and medium-horizon groups both average 100 percent buy and the long-horizon group 33 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 466.56 points and the 14-day average daily range at 488.64 points; the 9-day figures are 465.84 and 455.47, and the 20-day figures 477.50 and 459.77. Monday's 413.50 point range was 0.85 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 466.56 points to and from the 31,317.75 settle frames Tuesday between 30,851.19 and 31,784.31. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 31,025.17 to 31,610.33, two spans 30,903.98 to 31,731.52 and three spans 30,810.99 to 31,824.51. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle
The desk note said the largest technology companies outperformed, with the fund that tracks them up 1 percent, and that about 90 percent of the bullish hedging flow in single stocks was concentrated in them. Provider commentary said strength in those companies supported the broader market. After the close, press reports carried by the news feed at 5:00 PM ET said banks launched a record 60 billion dollar financing for a large chip designer and an AI developer, and at 4:46 PM ET that another AI developer has held talks on a 30 billion dollar funding round. Earlier, at 2:14 PM ET to 2:20 PM ET, press reports said two large technology companies are reducing staff use of an AI developer's assistant. These are reports carried by the news feed and were not confirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index closed at 13,172.74, up 0.27 percent, per the provider's quote, a smaller gain than the Nasdaq-100's 0.87 percent. Provider commentary cited merger activity, with an industrial electrical-equipment maker agreeing to buy an industrial software company for 22.6 billion dollars and a logistics company agreeing to buy a freight-brokerage company for 5.8 billion dollars. The QQQ fund closed at 756.20, above the 748.64 52-week high shown on the positioning console.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The services survey at 10:00 AM ET printed 54.9 against a 55.0 forecast and 55.4 previously, with its employment component at 50.1 against 48.8, per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said the prices-paid component rose to 74.0, a four-year high, that the ten-year yield touched a 24-year high during the session, and that the services price pressure limited stock gains. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.31 percent, up four basis points. The contract advanced through the session despite the higher yield, rising from 31,155.25 at the close of the 9:30 AM ET bar to 31,355.00 at the close of the 3:00 PM ET bar. The minutes of the September policy meeting are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
Late in the session the news feed carried a Treasury notice at 3:38 PM ET that foreign banks may be sanctioned for business with Iran, and after the cash close, at 4:12 PM ET, a Houthi statement claiming three military operations in Saudi Arabia, with no Saudi confirmation. A news-feed article at 11:45 AM ET tied the dollar's rise to French debt concerns. These are reports carried by the news feed and were not confirmed.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The Nasdaq-100 volatility gauge (VXN) closed at 21.70, up 0.50, per the provider's quote. The S&P 500 volatility index closed at 15.52, up 0.21. The dollar index rose 0.24 percent to 102.17. November crude fell 1.84 percent to 89.43 and December gold eased 0.13 percent to 4,156.8. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,773.95, up 0.66 percent. The closing basis, the December settlement less the cash close, is 31,317.75 less 31,076.44, or 241.31 points.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The latest positioning report on the provider's overview is the one as of September 29, 2026: asset managers long 108,558 contracts against short 38,814, and leveraged funds long 48,150 against short 72,873. The provider overview read shows that September 29 report as its latest, so no change in positioning is asserted for Monday. Open interest on the December contract reads 281,627 on the settlement row for Monday, up from 280,445 on Friday.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
The desk note read for this section is the 5:32 PM ET edition for Monday, read at 6:19 PM ET. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes, not Monday's: NDX 30,807 equals Friday's 30,807.93 cash close and QQQ 749 equals Friday's 749.58, so every level below is read against Monday's 31,076.44 cash close and 756.20 fund close and not against the reference column.
On the QQQ proxy the primary call side ceiling sits at 760, the modeled volatility threshold at 749, the modeled gamma-flip level at 742, the largest gamma concentration at 740 and the primary put side support base at 700. The fund closed at 756.20, 3.80 beneath the 760 ceiling and above the threshold, the flip and the largest concentration. Gamma tilt reads 1.068 and the gamma notional plus 246.704 million dollars, so the proxy's dealers carry a net long gamma position, and the 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.026. Put volume of 1.668 million contracts exceeded call volume of 1.084 million. The note lists 740, 750, 760 and 730 as key strikes. The QQQ console was marked as updated 2026-10-03 and still showed Thursday's 742.04 previous close and the same nearest-expiration shares as Friday's edition, so its figures are treated as stale and not used.
On the Nasdaq-100 index the call side ceiling and the largest gamma concentration both sit at NDX 31,000, which the cash close of 31,076.44 now exceeds, with the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,490 and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,043. The primary put side support base is NDX 28,000. The note lists NDX 31,000, 30,000, 29,475 and 31,100 as key strikes and NDX 31,239, 30,993, 31,024 and 31,085 as combination levels. Gamma tilt on the index reads 1.721 with a gamma notional of 14.615 million dollars.
At the measured closing basis of 241.31 points, NDX 31,000 corresponds to 31,241.31 on the December contract and the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,490 to 30,731.31. These are conversions made by this review; the source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled threshold is not a listed strike. The review uses the QQQ fund as the positioning proxy for the Nasdaq-100 contract, a choice made for the dataset available, and it remains secondary to technical structure and to the large-cap and semiconductor drivers in section 4. In this review's interpretation the proxy's net long gamma with the fund just beneath its 760 ceiling favours slower, mean-reverting trade near the ceiling on Tuesday, not an extension.
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex and Asia)
The contract reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday after the after-hours financing and funding reports, and the new session had printed 31,385.25 by the time of writing. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias constructive above the 31,215.42 Pivot Point, expected Globex band roughly 31,150 to 31,480.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
The United Kingdom construction survey is listed at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Monday's session low printed in the 5:30 AM ET bar, so the European morning carried the most recent selling. Bias neutral to constructive, expected band roughly 31,100 to 31,450.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, RTH Open)
The trade balance is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 9:05 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Vice Chair for Supervision speaks at 10:45 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test; on Monday the 9:30 AM ET bar carried the largest open-to-close advance of any 30-minute bar in the session, 99.75 points. Expected band roughly 31,150 to 31,500.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Tuesday)
A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET and a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The auction reaches the index through yields, the channel provider commentary said limited Monday's gains. Expected band roughly 31,200 to 31,550.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The minutes of the September policy meeting follow at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 31,150 to 31,480; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 31,060 to 31,610; High-range scenario: 30,850 to 31,790.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract above the 31,215.42 Pivot Point after a test of the 31,371.00 52-week high, with a move to Pivot R1 at 31,473.33 weighted above a return to Pivot S1 at 31,059.83. That weighting rests on the fifth consecutive higher settle, the settle near the top of its range, the 88 percent buy composite with direction strongest and positive direction above negative on the directional system. The stretch of 427.35 points above the 5-day average and the QQQ fund just beneath its 760 ceiling argue for pullbacks before extension. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a yield spike around the 1:00 PM ET auction that returns the contract beneath 31,059.83.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
The Tuesday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday. German industrial orders are listed at 2:00 AM ET, the United Kingdom construction survey at 4:30 AM ET and euro area retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
The United States morning carries the trade balance at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, a regional Federal Reserve president at 9:05 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, the cash open at 9:30 AM ET and the Vice Chair for Supervision at 10:45 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The short-term energy outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. A three-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, a regional Federal Reserve president at 1:15 PM ET and another at 7:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Tuesday.
In this review's judgment the single first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday is the 1:00 PM ET three-year note auction, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, because the ten-year yield closed near a 24-year high per provider commentary. The minutes of the September policy meeting follow at 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Monday was the fifth consecutive higher settle, finishing at 87.1 percent of its range above every settlement since 09/25/25, and the composite read holds at 88 percent buy with direction strongest; a pullback into the Pivot Point offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 31,059.83. The 9-day relative strength of 73.45 and the QQQ fund just beneath its 760 ceiling leave the contract stretched, so the setup is an analyst judgment that trend persistence outweighs overbought readings.
Entry Zone: 31,180 to 31,220
Stop Loss: 31,040 (beneath Pivot S1 at 31,059.83 and Friday's 31,061.75 settle)
Target 1 (T1): 31,360 (11.00 points beneath the 31,371.00 Monday high)
Target 2 (T2): 31,520 (32.33 points above the 31,487.67 target price published for Tuesday)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 31,680 (51.08 points above Pivot R2 at 31,628.92)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 31,059.83 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath 31,100 and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 31,100.
Macro override: A yield spike after the 1:00 PM ET auction, a reversal in the large technology names on the after-hours reports, or a Gulf escalation would turn the index lower. In that scenario the long is wrong immediately, and the 30,957.50 Monday low and two standard deviations support at 30,903.98 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 466.56 points.
Alternate setup: the session review states none.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, NQZ26, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Monday's close on October 5, 2026 for the Tuesday, October 6 session. The contract was verified before any level was used: the daily chart's current Tuesday bar and its stated change return a prior close of 31,317.75, equal to the provider's published previous close of 31,317.75, and the chart's completed Monday bar equals the provider's settlement row, so chart and provider are on the same December contract. The Globex session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Monday, so the day high, day low and open on the provider's overview belong to the Tuesday session and are not used as Monday's range. Monday's extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against all seven published rungs. Statements about the order of prices within Monday's session rest on the preserved 30-minute provider series, which also orders the prints used to grade the prior card.
The settlement averages were computed from the provider's 259-row daily settlement series, which excludes the partial Tuesday row, and are shown to two decimals; that series also supplies the seven closes charted above. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-05 row reads volume of 459,389 contracts and open interest of 281,627, and the 2026-10-02 row now reads volume of 581,527 and open interest of 280,445, where Monday's outlook carried a preliminary 573,483 and no open interest. The oscillator readings are cited as published. The desk note is the 5:32 PM ET edition for Monday, read at 6:19 PM ET; its reference prices are Friday's closes and are used as such, and the fund console marked as updated 2026-10-03 is excluded as stale. Cash-denominated levels are translated with the measured 241.31 point basis, the settlement against the 4:00 PM ET cash close; the modeled threshold is not a listed strike. The two volatility-gauge percentages are computed from the provider's closes and stated changes. Under the standing ruling the 52-week high on the December contract was 31,336; Monday's 31,371.00 high cleared it, so the 52-week high cited is 31,371.00. Scenario ranges, session bands and the path weighting are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar, the desk note or press reports and were not matched on the calendar used for confirmed times, and every catalyst whose time had passed by the 6:18 PM ET start of collection is recorded as completed.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here and the broad-index outlook for the same date is here. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
