At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November crude settled at 94.14, up 0.40 or 0.43 percent. It was the fourth higher settle in a row and the highest since the 94.61 settle of 09/24. The session ran from 91.70 to 95.11, a 3.41 point range, and the high was the highest since the 96.54 high of 09/28. Both ends moved up. The high sat 75 cents above Monday's 94.36 and the low 2.09 above Monday's 89.61.
That range ran through most of Tuesday's card. The long from 92.50 to 92.80 sat inside it, and the 91.70 low stopped 20 cents above the card's 91.50 stop. The 95.11 high cleared the first two targets. Which came first, the band or the targets, the daily bar cannot show.
Provider commentary said crude settled higher on concerns about Middle East energy-supply disruptions, citing an increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and said Tuesday's weaker dollar also supported prices. That is the commentary's account. The news feed carried reports of booms near the Saudi energy company's Dhahran headquarters at 2:34 PM ET to 2:43 PM ET, and maritime security reports, also via the news feed, of a container vessel and a tanker struck in Hormuz at 3:04 PM ET to 3:08 PM ET. Only the session extremes and the first and last 30-minute bars were captured. No price move here is tied to a headline.
November crude settled at 94.14, up 0.40, at 71.6 percent of a 91.70 to 95.11 range. It sits above all six settlement averages. Support starts at Monday's 93.74 settle and the Pivot Point at 93.65, then the 92.87 9-day stall level, the 92.53 retracement and Pivot S1 at 92.19. Resistance starts at the 94.28 retracement and the 94.80 stochastic projection, then the 94.97 target price, Tuesday's 95.11 high and Pivot R1 at 95.60. The setup is a long. It runs from 93.60 to 93.90, stop 92.85, targets 94.65, 95.55 and an extended 96.45, with the whole band beneath the settle, its top 24 cents under it. The calendar lists the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday and the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET Thursday.
Tuesday's range spanned the band, missed the stop by 20 cents and cleared two targets
First, the grading. In Tuesday's outlook we set a long from 92.50 to 92.80, stop 91.50, with targets at 93.80, 94.95 and an extended 96.10. The band wrapped the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 92.53 retracement. A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath the 91.69 18-day crossing would remove the edge.
Then Tuesday traded. Its bar, from the review, opened at 93.21 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 41 cents above the band's top, marked a high of 95.11 and a low of 91.70, and settled at 94.14 at 2:30 PM ET. The first 30-minute bar traded 93.20 to 93.33 and closed at 93.28. It stayed above the band. The 91.70 low sits 80 cents beneath the band's bottom, so the band's prices traded after that first bar; the daily bar cannot show when.
The stop was never touched. The 91.70 low stayed 20 cents above 91.50, 10 cents above the 91.60 invalidation line and 1 cent above the 91.69 acceptance line. No 30-minute bar can close beneath a price the session never traded, so the acceptance condition never triggered. The settle finished 2.54 above 91.60. No fill and no result is asserted.
Two of the three targets sit inside Tuesday's range. The 95.11 high cleared the 93.80 first target by 1.31 and the 94.95 second target by 16 cents, and stopped 99 cents short of the 96.10 extended target. The first bar's 93.33 high stayed 47 cents beneath the first target. The order of the target prints against the band is unknown. The settle finished 34 cents above the first target and 81 cents beneath the second.
Our wider ranges held this time. The most likely case of 91.60 to 95.50 contained the session, 10 cents above its bottom and 39 cents beneath its top, and the high-range case of 89.70 to 97.80 held it with room. The low-range case of 92.50 to 94.90 held neither extreme. The one deviation band of 91.60 to 95.88 held the session as well. The Globex band of 92.40 to 94.60 held the first bar, and the settle finished inside the afternoon band of 91.60 to 95.50.
The weighted path expected a hold between one standard deviation support at 91.60 and Pivot R1 at 95.53, with a dip toward the band holding above the 18-day crossing at 91.69. Both ends held. The low stopped 10 cents above 91.60 and 1 cent above 91.69, and the high stopped 42 cents beneath 95.53. The named alternative, a move through 91.60 toward Pivot S1 at 90.78, did not come; the low stayed 92 cents above 90.78.
The Pivot Point at 93.65, the 93.60 to 93.90 band and the 92.87 stall level
Tuesday lifted the map again. The new Pivot Point at 93.65 and Monday's 93.74 settle sit inside the 93.60 to 93.90 band. The 9-day average stall level at 92.87 sits 73 cents beneath the band, with the stop 2 cents under it at 92.85. The settle sits 24 cents above the band's top and 54 cents above its bottom. At 6:10 PM ET the Globex quote of 94.76 sat 62 cents above the settle and 86 cents above the band.
Resistance starts close. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 sits 14 cents above the settle, and the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.80 comes next. The published target price at 94.97 and Tuesday's 95.11 high follow, then the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 95.44 and Pivot R1 at 95.60. A wider band sits beyond. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02, the 18-day stall level at 96.08 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.47 open it, with Pivot R2 at 97.06 and two deviations resistance at 97.43 above. Three deviations resistance at 98.17, Pivot R3 at 99.01 and the 101.69 high, the top of the 52-week, 13-week and one-month ranges, are the extended references.
Support is layered. Monday's 93.74 settle and the 93.65 Pivot Point anchor it. The 92.87 stall level and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 come next, then Pivot S1 at 92.19. Beneath those, one deviation support at 91.81, Tuesday's 91.70 low and the 18-day crossing price at 91.58 form a group, with the 9-day crossing at 91.18 under it. Five lines then sit within 74 cents. Two deviations support at 90.85, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.37, the 40-day crossing at 90.29, Pivot S2 at 90.24 and three deviations support at 90.11 make up that shelf. Pivot S3 at 88.78 and the 50-day average at 87.67 lie beyond, with the 86.86 one-month low, the 100-day at 82.21, the 200-day at 76.20 and the 72.05 13-week low far beneath.
Every average sits beneath price. The settle is 2.24 above the 5-day at 91.90, 2.77 above the 9-day at 91.37, 1.76 above the 20-day at 92.38 and 6.47 above the 50-day at 87.67, while the 100-day at 82.21 and the 200-day at 76.20 sit 11.93 and 17.94 beneath. The 5-day rose 94 cents from 90.96 as the 10/06 settle of 89.44 left the window. The 20-day fell 33 cents from 92.71 and the 50-day rose 37 cents from 87.30. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 84.52. Wednesday's crossing prices are 91.18 for the 9-day, 91.58 for the 18-day and 90.29 for the 40-day.
Momentum leans up. Relative strength reads 59.69 on the 9-day, 57.55 on the 14-day and 57.22 on the 20-day. The raw stochastic reads 88.24 percent on the 9-day and 73.39 percent on the 14-day, and the 14-day %K at 64.35 percent sits above %D at 51.68 percent. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 22.35 against 10.32 on the 9-day with the ADX at 21.72, and 22.44 against 11.90 on the 14-day with the ADX at 23.29. Historic volatility reads 29.43 percent and 32.63 percent. The composite multi-indicator read holds at 72 percent buy, unchanged, strength good and direction strongest; it read 16 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium 75 percent and the long 67 percent. The trend indicator reads hold. These readings were published for Wednesday and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, and the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle.
Tuesday ran narrower. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.98 points, 4.23 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 4.14; Tuesday's 3.41 was 0.82 times that. The 9-day figures are 4.00 and 3.85 and the 20-day 3.88 and 4.22. One average true range either side of the settle spans 90.16 to 98.12, and the deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 91.81 to 96.47, 90.85 to 97.43 and 90.11 to 98.17. Eight sessions of daily ranges read 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75 and 3.41. Last week spanned 86.86 to 93.20. Tuesday's high extended Monday's move above it. The 101.69 high sits 7.55 above the settle and the 86.86 one-month low 7.28 beneath it, and over five sessions the contract rose 4.70 from the 89.44 settle of 10/06.
Dhahran reports, struck vessels and a wider distillate margin
The headlines ran all day, per the news feed. At 8:40 AM ET the news feed carried a Houthi military warning to employees and civilians to evacuate areas near the Saudi energy company's facilities. Then the strait. At 10:24 AM ET the news feed carried an Iranian navy statement that a tanker caught fire east of the Strait of Hormuz. At 11:37 AM ET came the President's statement that a decision on Iran will be made very soon. At 1:38 PM ET the news feed carried a statement from Iran's revolutionary guard of missile shots from Iranian islands toward vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
The afternoon brought the Saudi reports. At 2:34 PM ET to 2:43 PM ET the news feed carried reports of an explosion in Saudi Arabia's eastern region, booms near the energy company's Dhahran headquarters and a coalition interception of a missile aimed at Dhahran. At 2:51 PM ET the news feed carried a Saudi statement that the danger had passed in Riyadh. At 3:04 PM ET to 3:08 PM ET the maritime security agency reported, via the news feed, a container vessel struck by an unknown projectile and another tanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Later reports followed. At 4:32 PM ET the news feed carried a headline that the Dhahran headquarters was hit during Tuesday's attacks, and at 4:40 PM ET a report from Iranian media that the building was evacuated. Those afternoon reports carry times after the 2:30 PM ET settle. None was confirmed for this review, and none is tied here to a price.
Other threads ran alongside. At 4:24 PM ET the news feed carried a statement from Ukraine's President that a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv targeted energy infrastructure. The producer group's monthly report was listed at 8:00 AM ET Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Its release time has passed. An energy-news article carried by the news feed at 5:46 PM ET said the report puts global oil demand growth at 2.6 million barrels a day for 2027. No supply table was captured. The news feed also carried, at 8:34 AM ET, a Kazakh economy ministry forecast of 70 dollars a barrel for next year, and at 1:14 PM ET to 1:16 PM ET statements from the Vice President that the Defense Production Act is being used to expand a Texas refinery. At 4:42 PM ET the news feed carried a statement from the US regional military command that US forces helped Gulf partners move more than 19 million barrels of crude through the strait on Monday. That figure is the command's statement, and no flow was measured.
Distillates led the complex. The November heating oil contract settled at 4.9344 dollars a gallon, up 0.2112 or 4.47 percent, and November gasoline at 3.2501, down 0.0416 or 1.26 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin stands at 113.10 dollars a barrel against 104.63 on Monday. The gasoline margin stands at 42.36 against 44.51. Heating oil rose 21.12 cents a gallon, or 8.87 dollars a barrel, against a 40 cent gain in crude. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.283, up 0.116. No refinery utilisation figure was captured.
Inventories wait for Thursday. The calendars captured carry no inventory release for Tuesday or Wednesday. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The international energy agency's monthly report is listed at 4:00 AM ET Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Brent gave ground. December Brent settled at 105.69, down 0.96 or 0.90 percent, narrowing its premium over November WTI to 11.55 from 12.91. The front spread widened. December WTI settled at 93.17, so November sits 97 cents above it, against 88 cents on Monday, and the front of the curve remained in backwardation. The dollar eased. The dollar index closed at 102.18 in the provider's daily record, down 0.41 from 102.59, and provider commentary attributed the decline to Federal Reserve comments it described as dovish. The ten-year yield index eased to 5.22 percent from 5.24 percent. At 2:05 PM ET to 2:08 PM ET the news feed carried a Federal Reserve bank president's remarks that one more rate increase may be appropriate this year and that he is not seeing broad price pressure outside artificial intelligence and energy. At 4:00 PM ET the news feed carried a second regional president's remark that she expects inflation to stay above 2 percent because of high energy prices. Equities barely moved. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,805.45, down 0.02 percent, and December gold settled at 4,177.3, down 0.32 percent.
Managed money had trimmed its net long into the last report. The positioning report as of October 6, 2026 puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13. Tuesday's volume was 224,970 contracts against Monday's revised 235,379, and open interest reads 151,800 for Monday, down from 171,665 on Friday. Tuesday's figure was not yet reported. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December continues through the week. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, and none is implied.
The trade map for Wednesday
The review's setup is a long. It runs from 93.60 to 93.90. Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low and settled above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, its fourth higher settle in a row. Positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite holds at 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest. The band wraps the Pivot Point at 93.65 and Monday's 93.74 settle. The stop sits at 92.85, 2 cents beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87, with targets at 94.65, 15 cents beneath the 94.80 stochastic projection, 95.55, 5 cents beneath Pivot R1 at 95.60, and an extended 96.45, 2 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 96.47. Tuesday settled at 71.6 percent of its range, and Brent fell on the day. The review calls the long an analyst judgment against live supply headlines and a scheduled macro release.
Now the arithmetic. From the 93.75 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.90, 22.6 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.98. The targets sit 0.90, 1.80 and 2.70 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 24 cents under it, so the setup needs a dip to engage.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 93.00 to 95.60, the most likely 91.80 to 96.50 and the high-range case 90.10 to 98.20. Session by session the review's judgment expects roughly 93.60 to 95.30 through Globex absent a headline shock, with a neutral to higher bias above the 93.65 Pivot Point. London follows at roughly 93.20 to 95.60, with the band as the first meaningful support. The morning band runs 92.20 to 96.50, with Tuesday's 95.11 high and Pivot R1 at 95.60 the first meaningful resistance, and the afternoon 92.00 to 96.50 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The 6:10 PM ET quote of 94.76 sat inside all of them.
Wednesday's calendar starts overnight. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET Tuesday and a European Central Bank president's remarks at 10:10 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the European lithography maker's results at 1:00 AM ET. The international energy agency's monthly report is listed at 4:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists a Federal Reserve vice chair at 5:40 AM ET and large bank results at about 6:45 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET. Then the data. The calendar lists the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.6 percent for the month and 3.6 percent for the year, and 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent for the core measure. The cash equity open follows at 9:30 AM ET. The calendar lists business formation statistics at 10:00 AM ET. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the central bank's regional survey of economic conditions at 2:00 PM ET. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Japanese machinery orders follow at 7:50 PM ET and Australian employment at 8:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Later in the week the calendar lists retail sales and producer prices at 8:30 AM ET and the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET, both on Thursday, October 15, 2026. The November contract expires on 10/20/26.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 91.81 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.47, with the inflation print and Gulf headlines deciding the side. A dip toward the band that holds above the 92.87 stall level is weighted above a break lower in that judgment. It names an alternative. A calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines, or an inflation print that lifts the dollar, would carry the contract through the 92.53 retracement toward Pivot S1 at 92.19. Scheduled risk comes early. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Wednesday is the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz headlines.
Tuesday's low stopped a cent above the old acceptance line; Wednesday's band starts 1.10 points higher.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Wednesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 94.14 on Tuesday, up 0.40 or 0.43 percent from Monday's settle of 93.74, after trading between 95.11 and 91.70, a 3.41 point daily range. The settle finished at 71.6 percent of the range, and the 3.41 point range was 0.82 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.14 points. Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Monday, and the settle was the fourth consecutive higher settle for the November contract. The 94.14 settle was the highest since the 94.61 settle of 09/24, and the 95.11 high the highest since the 96.54 high of 09/28.
Provider commentary said crude settled higher on concerns about Middle East energy-supply disruptions, citing an increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and said Tuesday's weaker dollar also supported prices. The news feed carried at 2:34 PM ET to 2:43 PM ET reports of booms near the Saudi energy company's headquarters in Dhahran and a coalition statement that a missile aimed at Dhahran was intercepted, and at 3:04 PM ET to 3:08 PM ET maritime security reports that a container vessel and a tanker were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Only session extremes and the first and last 30-minute bars were preserved for this review, so no price move in this review is tied to a specific headline beyond those time stamps.
Brent's December contract settled at 105.69, down 0.96 or 0.90 percent, so Brent's premium over November WTI narrowed to 11.55 from 12.91. The December WTI contract settled at 93.17, leaving November 97 cents above December against 88 cents on Monday. The November heating oil contract rose 0.2112 to 4.9344 while the November gasoline contract fell 0.0416 to 3.2501. The dollar index closed at 102.18, down from Monday's 102.59, and the ten-year yield index eased to 5.22 percent from 5.24 percent.
The Wednesday session carries the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The published 14-day average true range of 3.98 points is 4.23 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 93.60 to 93.90 band, around the Pivot Point at 93.65 and Monday's 93.74 settle, stopped at 92.85 beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87, with objectives at 94.65, 95.55 and an extended 96.45.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Tuesday session opened at 93.21 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 53 cents beneath Monday's settle, marked a daily high of 95.11 and a daily low of 91.70, and settled at 94.14 at 2:30 PM ET. No complete intraday series was preserved for this session, so this review makes no claim about when the high or the low printed or about the path between them. The daily high and low are full Globex session extremes, from the 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 5:00 PM ET pause, rather than extremes of the settlement window.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 94.14 at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 94.79; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the provider's displayed day open, high and low of 94.75, 94.83 and 94.57 belong to the new session dated Wednesday, not to Tuesday, and are not used as Tuesday's range.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 99.01 minus Pivot S3 at 88.78, divided by three, returns 3.41, and Pivot R2 at 97.06 minus Pivot S2 at 90.24, divided by two, returns the same 3.41. Three times the Pivot Point of 93.65 less the 94.14 settle gives a high plus low sum of 186.81, which the pair of 95.11 and 91.70 reproduces, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Tuesday daily bar and the extremes of the captured Tuesday 30-minute bars carry the same 95.11 high and 91.70 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Monday: the 95.11 high sits 75 cents above Monday's 94.36, and the 91.70 low sits 2.09 points above Monday's 89.61. The settle at 71.6 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 97 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 1.51 points beneath the 93.21 open on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 90.05, 90.98, 93.20, 92.17, 94.36 and 95.11, and the sequence of session lows reads 86.86, 87.96, 88.77, 90.01, 89.61 and 91.70. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 89.44, 88.28, 91.49, 91.85, 93.74 and 94.14.
Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 93.20 to 86.86, and Tuesday's 95.11 high extended Monday's move above that range. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 7.55 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 86.86 sits 7.28 points beneath it. Over five sessions the contract rose 4.70 points from the 89.44 settle of 10/06.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 101.69 above and 72.05 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75 and 3.41. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 1.76, minus 1.68, plus 0.01, minus 1.16, plus 3.21, plus 0.36, plus 1.89 and plus 0.40.
The retracement grid published for Wednesday places the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28, 14 cents above the settle, and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02. Beneath the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.53 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.37. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Tuesday. The 5-day average stands at 91.90, the 9-day at 91.37, the 20-day at 92.38, the 50-day at 87.67, the 100-day at 82.21 and the 200-day at 76.20.
The 94.14 settle sits 2.24 points above the 5-day average, 2.77 points above the 9-day, 1.76 points above the 20-day and 6.47 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 94 cents from Monday's 90.96, because the 10/06 settle of 89.44 left the window and was replaced by 94.14. The 20-day fell 33 cents from 92.71 and the 50-day rose 37 cents from 87.30.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 92.38 against 87.67 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 84.52. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Wednesday: 91.18 for the 9-day, 91.58 for the 18-day and 90.29 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Wednesday session and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle, so these readings carry that caveat. The 9-day relative strength reads 59.69, the 14-day relative strength 57.55 and the 20-day relative strength 57.22.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 88.24 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 73.39 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 64.35 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 51.68 percent, so %K sits above %D in the upper half of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 21.72 with the 9-day +DI at 22.35 and the 9-day -DI at 10.32; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 23.29 with the 14-day +DI at 22.44 and the 14-day -DI at 11.90, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.43 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 32.63 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Wednesday session is 72 percent buy, unchanged from 72 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as good and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 16 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 75 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads hold.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.98 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.14 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.00 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.85, and the 20-day average true range is 3.88 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.22. Tuesday's 3.41 point range was 0.82 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.98 points from the 94.14 settle frames Wednesday between 90.16 and 98.12. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 91.81 to 96.47, two spans 90.85 to 97.43 and three spans 90.11 to 98.17. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 94.14 settle, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 and the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.80 come first. The published target price at 94.97 and Tuesday's 95.11 high are next, followed by the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 95.44 and Pivot R1 at 95.60. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02, the 18-day stall level at 96.08 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.47 form the next band, with Pivot R2 at 97.06 and two standard deviations resistance at 97.43 beyond. Three standard deviations resistance at 98.17, Pivot R3 at 99.01 and the 101.69 one-month high are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle, Monday's 93.74 settle and the Pivot Point at 93.65 form the band that anchors the setup. The 9-day average stall level at 92.87 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 come next, followed by Pivot S1 at 92.19. One standard deviation support at 91.81, Tuesday's 91.70 low and the 18-day average crossing price at 91.58 form the next grouping, with the 9-day average crossing price at 91.18 beneath. Two standard deviations support at 90.85, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.37, the 40-day average crossing price at 90.29, Pivot S2 at 90.24 and three standard deviations support at 90.11 follow, with Pivot S3 at 88.78 and the 50-day settlement average at 87.67 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
The producer group's monthly report was listed at 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and its release time has passed. An energy-news article carried by the news feed at 5:46 PM ET said the report puts global oil demand growth at 2.6 million barrels a day for 2027; no supply table from the report was captured for this review. The news feed carried at 8:34 AM ET a Kazakh economy ministry forecast of 70 dollars a barrel for next year, and at 1:14 PM ET to 1:16 PM ET statements from the Vice President that the Defense Production Act is being used to expand a Texas refinery. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The calendars captured for this review contain no inventory release for Tuesday or Wednesday. The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The international energy agency's monthly report is listed at 4:00 AM ET on Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The news feed carried at 4:42 PM ET a statement from the US regional military command that US forces helped Gulf partners move more than 19 million barrels of crude through the strait on Monday; that figure is the command's statement, not a measured flow.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 8:40 AM ET a Houthi military warning to employees and civilians to evacuate areas near the Saudi energy company's facilities, at 10:24 AM ET an Iranian navy statement that a tanker caught fire east of the Strait of Hormuz, and at 11:37 AM ET the President's statement that a decision on Iran will be made very soon. At 1:38 PM ET the news feed carried a statement from Iran's revolutionary guard of missile shots from Iranian islands toward vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. At 2:34 PM ET to 2:43 PM ET it carried reports of an explosion in Saudi Arabia's eastern region, booms near the energy company's Dhahran headquarters and a coalition interception of a missile aimed at Dhahran, and at 2:51 PM ET a Saudi statement that the danger had passed in Riyadh. At 3:04 PM ET to 3:08 PM ET the maritime security agency reported a container vessel struck by an unknown projectile and another tanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz. At 4:32 PM ET the news feed carried a headline that the Dhahran headquarters was hit during Tuesday's attacks, and at 4:40 PM ET a report from Iranian media that the building was evacuated. On Russia and Ukraine, the news feed carried at 4:24 PM ET a statement from Ukraine's President that a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv targeted energy infrastructure. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The November heating oil contract settled at 4.9344 dollars a gallon, up 0.2112 or 4.47 percent, and the November gasoline contract at 3.2501, down 0.0416 or 1.26 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On the settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 113.10 dollars a barrel against 104.63 on Monday, and the gasoline margin at 42.36 against 44.51. The distillate margin widened because heating oil rose 21.12 cents a gallon, or 8.87 dollars a barrel, against a 40 cent gain in crude, while the gasoline margin narrowed. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.283, up 0.116. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 102.18 in the provider's daily record, down 0.41 from Monday's 102.59, and provider commentary attributed the dollar's decline to Federal Reserve comments it described as dovish. The ten-year yield index eased to 5.22 percent from 5.24 percent. The news feed carried at 2:05 PM ET to 2:08 PM ET a Federal Reserve bank president's remarks that one more rate increase may be appropriate this year and that he is not seeing broad price pressure outside artificial intelligence and energy, and at 4:00 PM ET a second regional president's remark that she expects inflation to stay above 2 percent because of high energy prices. Brent's December contract settled at 105.69, down 0.90 percent, narrowing its premium over November WTI to 11.55 from 12.91. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,805.45, down 0.02 percent, and gold's December contract settled at 4,177.3, down 0.32 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The positioning report as of October 6, 2026, shown on the provider's overview for this review, puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13.
Open interest on the November contract is shown at 151,800 for Monday, down from 171,665 on Friday; Tuesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Tuesday's volume was 224,970 contracts against Monday's revised 235,379. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December continues through the week. The November contract settled 97 cents above December, against 88 cents on Monday, so the front of the curve remained in backwardation.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET with the November contract quoted at 94.76 at 6:10 PM ET, 62 cents above the settle. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET and a European Central Bank president's remarks at 10:10 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European lithography maker reports at 1:00 AM ET on Wednesday, as the calendar lists it. Bias neutral to higher above the 93.65 Pivot Point, expected Globex band roughly 93.60 to 95.30 absent a headline shock.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)
The international energy agency's monthly report is listed at 4:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 5:40 AM ET and a large bank reports at about 6:45 AM ET, both as the calendar lists them. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 93.20 to 95.60, with the 93.60 to 93.90 band the first meaningful support.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, US Open / Pit Session)
The consumer price index for September prints at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, before this window opens, and the cash equity open follows at 9:30 AM ET. Business formation statistics are scheduled at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. Expected band roughly 92.20 to 96.50, with Tuesday's 95.11 high and Pivot R1 at 95.60 the first meaningful resistance.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Wednesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The central bank's regional survey of economic conditions is scheduled at 2:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 92.00 to 96.50.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)
The Thursday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Wednesday. Japanese machinery orders are listed at 7:50 PM ET and Australian employment at 8:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 93.00 to 95.60
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 91.80 to 96.50
High-range scenario: 90.10 to 98.20
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 91.81 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.47, with the inflation print and Gulf headlines deciding the side. A dip toward the 93.60 to 93.90 band that holds above the 92.87 stall level is weighted above a break lower, because Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low, settled above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems and the composite holds at 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines carried by the news feed, or an inflation print that lifts the dollar, that carries the contract through the 92.53 retracement toward Pivot S1 at 92.19.
7. Wednesday Economic Calendar
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET and a European Central Bank president's remarks at 10:10 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
On Wednesday, the European lithography maker reports at 1:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The international energy agency's monthly report is listed at 4:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 5:40 AM ET, and large banks report at about 6:45 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET, all as the calendar lists them. The consumer price index for September prints at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.6 percent for the month and 3.6 percent for the year, and 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent for the core measure. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The central bank's regional survey of economic conditions is scheduled at 2:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET.
Later in the week, the next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and retail sales and producer prices for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists them. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Wednesday is the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz headlines.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low, settled above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day for a fourth consecutive higher settle, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite holds at 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest; a dip into the Pivot Point at 93.65 and Monday's 93.74 settle offers a long with a defined risk point beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87. Tuesday settled at 71.6 percent of its range, Brent fell on the day and the inflation print arrives before the pit session, so the setup is an analyst judgment against live supply headlines and a scheduled macro release.
Entry Zone: 93.60 to 93.90
Stop Loss: 92.85 (beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87)
Target 1 (T1): 94.65 (15 cents beneath the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.80)
Target 2 (T2): 95.55 (5 cents beneath Pivot R1 at 95.60)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 96.45 (2 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 96.47)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 93.60.
Macro override: A calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines carried by the news feed, or an inflation print that lifts the dollar and yields, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a drop through the 92.85 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and the 92.53 retracement and Pivot S1 at 92.19 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 3.98 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November WTI crude contract, the November ’26 contract, prepared after Tuesday's close on October 13, 2026 for the Wednesday, October 14, 2026 session. Tuesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 99.01 less Pivot S3 at 88.78, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 97.06 less Pivot S2 at 90.24, divided by two, both return 3.41, and three times the 93.65 Pivot Point less the 94.14 settle gives 186.81, the sum of 95.11 and 91.70. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Tuesday bar and the captured 30-minute bars carry the same extremes. Only those figures, the first and last 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Tuesday's card, which is graded as published. No complete intraday series was preserved for Tuesday, so no claim is made about when the high or low printed and no price move is tied to a specific headline.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 259-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Wednesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. Monday's volume and open interest come from the provider's revised 10/12 row: volume now reads 235,379 against the 206,806 cited in Tuesday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 151,800. Tuesday's open interest had not been reported. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Tuesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Tuesday outlook covers the metal that slipped 0.32 percent on Tuesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
