Between 89.61 and 94.36, November crude covered 4.75 points on Monday, its widest range since the 5.62 point range of 10/02. It settled at 93.74 at 2:30 PM ET, up 1.89 or 2.06 percent and 62 cents beneath the high, the highest settle since the 94.61 of 09/24. It was an outside day. Friday's 92.17 high and 90.01 low both sat inside Monday's bar.
The range covered Monday's whole card. By Sunday night the long from 90.50 to 90.80 was already off unless the contract reclaimed and held Pivot S1 at 90.52 into the 9:30 AM ET cash open. Monday's completed low of 89.61 sits 4 cents beneath that card's 89.65 stop. Its high sits 71 cents above the 93.65 third target. Which came first is unknown.
Provider commentary said crude settled sharply higher amid threats to global energy supplies, after Houthi forces in Yemen launched drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia over the weekend and Iran stepped up attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. The same commentary said the dollar's rally to a one-and-a-half-year high weighed on the gain. That is the commentary's account. The news feed carried a sequence of reports from Riyadh between 2:02 PM ET and 2:14 PM ET and a British navy report of a crude tanker struck in Hormuz at 3:02 PM ET. Only the session extremes and the first and last 30-minute bars were captured. No price move here is tied to a headline.
November crude settled at 93.74, up 1.89, at 86.9 percent of an 89.61 to 94.36 outside-day range. All six settlement averages sit beneath it. Support starts at the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 92.53 retracement, then Friday's 92.17 high, the 91.69 18-day crossing and one deviation support at 91.60. Resistance starts at the 94.28 retracement and Monday's 94.36 high, then the 94.91 target price and Pivot R1 at 95.53. The setup is a long. It runs from 92.50 to 92.80, stop 91.50, targets 93.80, 94.95 and an extended 96.10, with the whole band beneath the settle, its top 94 cents under it. The calendar lists the producer group's monthly report at 8:00 AM ET Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the weekly petroleum status report moves to 12:00 PM ET Thursday after the holiday.
Monday's 89.61 to 94.36 range ran through the stop and past every target
First, the grading. In Monday's outlook we set a long from 90.50 to 90.80, stop 89.65, with targets at 91.65, 92.65 and an extended 93.65. By Sunday night the card had changed status. The 89.63 overnight low had traded through the band and 2 cents beneath the stop, so the card read invalidated by price. It stood again only if the contract reclaimed and held Pivot S1 at 90.52 into the 9:30 AM ET cash open.
Then Monday traded. Its bar, from the review, opened at 91.83 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 1.03 above the band's top, marked a high of 94.36 and a low of 89.61, and settled at 93.74 at 2:30 PM ET. The first 30-minute bar traded 91.71 to 92.62 and closed at 92.52. The band stayed untouched. The completed low sits 2 cents beneath the 89.63 the Sunday update reported, 89 cents beneath the band's bottom and 4 cents beneath the stop.
The reclaim condition is the gap in the record. The settle finished 3.22 above 90.52, but no complete intraday series was preserved, so the bar cannot show whether the contract reclaimed and held that line by 9:30 AM ET, or when the 89.61 low printed. Under the card as published, the long's standing on Monday is unknown. No fill and no result is asserted.
All three target prices sit inside Monday's range. The 94.36 high cleared 91.65 by 2.71, 92.65 by 1.71 and the 93.65 extended target by 71 cents, and the settle finished 9 cents above the third. The order of those prints against the low is unknown.
The risk lines split. The card's invalidation was a settle beneath two standard deviations support at 89.71, and the settle finished 4.03 above it, though the low went 10 cents through that level. The acceptance line sat at Friday's 90.01 low. Monday's low went 40 cents beneath it, and without a complete series the record cannot show whether two 30-minute closes printed there. The 89.18 Pivot S2 to 88.77 area that the Sunday update named as the next test stayed at least 43 cents away.
Our ranges ran narrow. The low-range case of 90.50 to 92.70 held neither extreme, and the most likely case of 90.00 to 93.50 missed the low by 39 cents and the high by 86 cents. Only the high-range case of 87.90 to 95.80 contained the session, 1.71 above its bottom and 1.44 beneath its top. The three deviation band of 89.22 to 94.48 held it as well, by 39 cents and 12 cents. The Globex band of 90.30 to 93.00 held the first bar. The settle finished 24 cents above the afternoon band's 93.50 top.
The weighted path expected a hold between Pivot S1 at 90.52 and Pivot R2 at 93.50, with a dip toward the band holding above Friday's 90.01 low. Both ends gave way. The low went 91 cents under Pivot S1 and the high 86 cents over Pivot R2. The named alternative was a supply response carrying the contract through 89.71 toward Pivot S3 at 88.36; the low went 10 cents through 89.71 and stopped 1.25 above 88.36.
The Pivot Point at 92.57, the 92.50 to 92.80 band and the 91.60 line
Monday rebuilt the map higher. The new Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 sit inside the 92.50 to 92.80 band, and so does the 20-day settlement average at 92.71. Friday's 92.17 high sits 33 cents beneath the band. The settle sits 94 cents above the band's top and 1.24 above its bottom. At 6:18 PM ET the Globex quote of 93.30 sat 44 cents beneath the settle and 50 cents above the band.
Resistance starts close. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 sits 54 cents above the settle, with Monday's 94.36 high 8 cents beyond it. The published target price at 94.91 comes next, then Pivot R1 at 95.53 and one standard deviation resistance at 95.88. A wider band follows. The 96.02 retracement from the four-week high and two deviations resistance at 96.76 open it, with Pivot R2 at 97.32 and three deviations resistance at 97.44 beyond. Pivot R3 at 100.28 and the 101.69 high, the top of the 52-week, 13-week and one-month ranges, are the extended references.
Support is layered. The 92.57 Pivot Point and the 92.53 retracement anchor it, with Friday's 92.17 high just beneath. The 18-day crossing price at 91.69 and one deviation support at 91.60 come next, then the 9-day crossing at 91.03, the 5-day and 9-day averages at 90.96 and Pivot S1 at 90.78. Below those, two deviations support at 90.72, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.28, three deviations support at 90.04 and the 40-day crossing at 90.00 form the next group, with Friday's 90.01 low among them. Monday's 89.61 low sits beneath. Pivot S2 at 87.82, the 50-day average at 87.30, the 86.86 one-month low and Pivot S3 at 86.03 follow; the 100-day at 82.11, the 200-day at 76.02 and the 71.82 13-week low lie far beneath.
Every average now sits beneath price. The settle is 2.78 above both the 5-day and the 9-day at 90.96, 1.03 above the 20-day at 92.71 and 6.44 above the 50-day at 87.30, while the 100-day at 82.11 and the 200-day at 76.02 sit 11.63 and 17.72 beneath. Friday's settle had sat 1.03 beneath the 20-day. The 5-day rose 86 cents from 90.10 as the 10/05 settle of 89.43 left the window, the 20-day fell 17 cents from 92.88 and the 50-day rose 30 cents from 86.99. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 83.69. Tuesday's crossing prices are 91.03 for the 9-day, 91.69 for the 18-day and 90.00 for the 40-day.
Most momentum gauges sit above their midpoints. Relative strength reads 58.50 on the 9-day, 56.79 on the 14-day and 56.70 on the 20-day. The raw stochastic reads 91.73 percent on the 9-day and 69.35 percent on the 14-day, and the 14-day %K at 54.78 percent sits above %D at 39.18 percent. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 22.39 against 11.40 on the 9-day with the ADX at 19.83, and 22.47 against 12.67 on the 14-day with the ADX at 22.72. Historic volatility reads 29.55 percent and 33.29 percent. The composite multi-indicator read rose to 72 percent buy from 32 percent, strength good and direction strongest; it read 24 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium 75 percent and the long 67 percent. The trend indicator still reads hold. These readings were published for Tuesday and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, and the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle.
Monday ran wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 4.03 points, 4.30 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 4.21; Monday's 4.75 was 1.13 times that. The 9-day figures are 4.08 and 3.84 and the 20-day 3.91 and 4.28. One average true range either side of the settle spans 89.71 to 97.77, and the deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 91.60 to 95.88, 90.72 to 96.76 and 90.04 to 97.44. Eight sessions of daily ranges read 4.89, 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16 and 4.75. Last week spanned 86.86 to 93.20. Monday's high cleared it. The 101.69 high sits 7.95 above the settle and the 86.86 one-month low 6.88 beneath it, and over five sessions the contract rose 4.31 from the 89.43 settle of 10/05.
Missile reports, a struck tanker and narrower product margins
The afternoon brought a run of reports, per the news feed. The Riyadh reports came first. At 2:02 PM ET the news feed carried a warning issued in Riyadh for potential danger, at 2:04 PM ET a witness report of three explosions heard there and at 2:12 PM ET a statement from Saudi authorities that the threat had passed. At 2:14 PM ET a coalition statement said a ballistic missile fired from Yemen towards Riyadh was destroyed. Then the strait. At 2:21 PM ET the maritime security agency reported that a container vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting inbound through the Strait of Hormuz on October 11, and at 3:02 PM ET the British navy reported a crude tanker struck by an unknown projectile in Hormuz. Both came via the news feed. The Houthis claimed at 3:03 PM ET, per the news feed, that they targeted Riyadh's airport with ballistic missiles. At 3:18 PM ET, per the news feed, Iranian state-affiliated media carried a Houthi warning that no Saudi airspace or airport is safe except Mecca and Medina. None was confirmed for this review, and none is tied here to a price.
Russia added a supply thread. The news feed carried statements from Russia's deputy prime minister at 2:26 PM ET to 2:28 PM ET that Russia and the United States are in talks on supply, that Russia can make additional diesel supplies to global markets and that Russian diesel exports may reach 3 to 3.5 million tons by year end. At 2:31 PM ET he said, per the news feed, that the producer alliance has discussed transportation costs, which have risen significantly. At 3:05 PM ET he said Russian companies are discussing diesel sales with buyers. No new statement from the alliance itself was captured. No volumes were measured.
Products slipped while crude rose. The November gasoline contract settled at 3.2917 dollars a gallon, down 0.0035 or 0.11 percent, and November heating oil at 4.7232, down 0.0152 or 0.32 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin stands at 44.51 dollars a barrel against 46.55 on Friday. The heating oil margin stands at 104.63 against 107.16. Both narrowed because crude rose 1.89 while both product contracts slipped.
Part of Gulf of Mexico output was still shut in on Monday, per the news feed. The news feed carried at 12:30 PM ET that 604,503 barrels a day, or 30 percent, of Gulf oil production and 25 percent of gas production is shut in. Provider commentary on natural gas said offshore producers brought back supply shut down last week. Inventories wait for Thursday. The calendars captured carry no inventory release for Monday or Tuesday. The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday, as the calendar lists it.
Brent kept its lead. December Brent settled at 106.65, up 1.93 or 1.84 percent, widening its premium over November WTI to 12.91 from 12.87. The curve held its shape. December WTI settled at 92.86, so November sits 88 cents above it, against 84 cents on Friday, and the front of the curve remained in backwardation. The dollar firmed. It stood at 102.59 as of 6:26 PM ET, up from Friday's 102.21 close, and the desk note described the dollar's close as its highest since April. At 1:35 PM ET to 1:40 PM ET a regional Federal Reserve president said, per the news feed, that the question for the central bank is how fast to make policy more restrictive and that more restraint is needed. Yields sat still. The cash Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day, per the desk note, and the ten-year yield index was unchanged at 5.24 percent. Elsewhere the S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,807.24, down 0.06 percent, and December gold settled at 4,190.6, down 0.61 percent.
Managed money trimmed its net long into the last report. The positioning report as of October 6, 2026 puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13. Monday's volume was 206,806 contracts against 230,048 on Friday's revised row, and open interest reads 171,665 for Friday, down from 188,142 on Thursday. Monday's figure was not yet reported. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December grows through the week. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, and none is implied.
Diplomacy ran alongside. At 5:00 PM ET, per the news feed, the President said the leaders of Ukraine and Russia have to meet and end the war, and a press report carried by the news feed said the diesel arrangement is an effort to soften Russia. Neither was confirmed for this review.
The trade map for Tuesday
The review's primary setup is a long from 92.50 to 92.80. Monday's outside day settled at 86.9 percent of its range and above the 20-day settlement average, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest. The band wraps the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 92.53 retracement. The stop sits at 91.50, beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60 and the 18-day crossing at 91.69, with targets at 93.80, 6 cents above Monday's settle, 94.95, 4 cents above the 94.91 target price, and an extended 96.10, 8 cents above the 96.02 retracement. The trend indicator still reads hold. The review calls the long an analyst judgment against live supply headlines. Its main risk is a calming of the Gulf reports or more Russian product supply, the subject of Monday's news-feed statements.
Now the arithmetic. From the 92.65 midpoint the risk to the stop is 1.15, 28.5 percent of the 14-day average true range of 4.03. The targets sit 1.15, 2.30 and 3.45 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 94 cents under it, so the setup needs a dip to engage.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 92.50 to 94.90, the most likely 91.60 to 95.50 and the high-range case 89.70 to 97.80. Session by session the review's judgment expects roughly 92.40 to 94.60 through Globex absent a headline shock, with a neutral to higher bias above the 92.57 Pivot Point, then 92.20 to 94.80 through London with the band as the first meaningful support, 91.80 to 95.20 in the morning with Monday's 94.36 high and the 94.91 target price as the first meaningful resistance, and 91.60 to 95.50 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The 6:18 PM ET quote of 93.30 sat inside all of them.
Tuesday's calendar starts overnight. The President's remarks were listed at 7:00 PM ET Monday, Japanese producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, the Australian central bank's minutes at 8:30 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. None was due by 6:27 PM ET. German final inflation figures are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the calendar lists a Federal Reserve governor at 3:45 AM ET. Bank earnings begin before the cash open, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. The producer group's monthly report is listed at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the data. Existing home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET with a forecast of 3.95 million, and regional Federal Reserve presidents at 10:00 AM ET, 1:00 PM ET and 4:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, also unconfirmed. Later in the week the calendar lists the September consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 91.60 and Pivot R1 at 95.53, with the Gulf and Hormuz reports deciding the side. A dip toward the band that holds above the 18-day crossing at 91.69 is weighted above a break lower in that judgment. It names an alternative. A calming of the Saudi and Hormuz reports, or further Russian product flows like those in Monday's news-feed statements, would carry the contract through 91.60 toward Pivot S1 at 90.78. Scheduled risk comes early. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Tuesday is the producer group's monthly report at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz reports.
Monday's stop and all three of its targets fit inside one 4.75 point range; Tuesday's band starts 2.00 points higher.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 93.74 on Monday, up 1.89 or 2.06 percent from Friday's settle of 91.85, after trading between 94.36 and 89.61, a 4.75 point daily range. The settle finished at 86.9 percent of the range, and the 4.75 point range was 1.13 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.21 points. Monday printed an outside day against Friday, with a higher high and a lower low, and its 4.75 point range was the widest for the November contract since the 5.62 point range of 10/02. The 93.74 settle was the highest since the 94.61 settle of 09/24, and the 94.36 high the highest since the 94.74 high of 09/29.
Provider commentary said crude settled sharply higher amid threats to global energy supplies, after Houthi forces in Yemen launched drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia over the weekend and Iran stepped up attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, while, in the same commentary, the dollar's rally to a one-and-a-half-year high weighed on the gain. The news feed carried at 2:02 PM ET to 2:14 PM ET a sequence of reports of a warning in Riyadh, three explosions heard and a ballistic missile destroyed by the Saudi-led coalition, at 3:02 PM ET a report from the British navy that a crude tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in Hormuz, and at 3:03 PM ET a Houthi statement claiming a ballistic missile attack on Riyadh's airport. Only session extremes and the first and last 30-minute bars were captured, so no price move in this review is tied to a specific headline beyond those time stamps.
Brent's December contract settled at 106.65, up 1.93 or 1.84 percent, so Brent's premium over November WTI widened to 12.91 from 12.87. The December WTI contract settled at 92.86, leaving November 88 cents above December against 84 cents on Friday. The dollar index stood at 102.59 as of 6:26 PM ET, up from Friday's 102.21 close. The cash Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day, per the desk note, and the ten-year yield index was unchanged at 5.24 percent. The November heating oil contract slipped 0.0152 to 4.7232 while the news feed carried statements from Russia's deputy prime minister at 2:26 PM ET to 2:28 PM ET that Russia can supply additional diesel to global markets.
The Tuesday session follows an outside day that closed near its high, with the Gulf and Hormuz reports unresolved at the settle. The published 14-day average true range of 4.03 points is 4.30 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 92.50 to 92.80 band, around the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53, stopped at 91.50 beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60, with objectives at 93.80, 94.95 and an extended 96.10.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 91.83 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2 cents beneath Friday's settle, marked a daily high of 94.36 and a daily low of 89.61, and settled at 93.74 at 2:30 PM ET. No complete intraday series was preserved for this session, so this review makes no claim about when the high or the low printed or about the path between them.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 93.74 at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 93.16; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the provider's displayed day open, high and low of 93.21, 93.33 and 93.20 belong to the new session dated Tuesday, not to Monday, and are not used as Monday's range.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 100.28 minus Pivot S3 at 86.03, divided by three, returns 4.75, and Pivot R2 at 97.32 minus Pivot S2 at 87.82, divided by two, returns the same 4.75. Three times the Pivot Point of 92.57 less the 93.74 settle gives a high plus low sum of 183.97, which the pair of 94.36 and 89.61 reproduces, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Monday daily bar and the extremes of the captured Monday 30-minute bars carry the same 94.36 high and 89.61 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed an outside day against Friday: the 94.36 high sits 2.19 points above Friday's 92.17, and the 89.61 low sits 40 cents beneath Friday's 90.01. The settle at 86.9 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 62 cents and a lower shadow of 2.22 points on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 91.88, 90.05, 90.98, 93.20, 92.17 and 94.36, and the sequence of session lows reads 88.74, 86.86, 87.96, 88.77, 90.01 and 89.61. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 89.43, 89.44, 88.28, 91.49, 91.85 and 93.74.
Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 93.20 to 86.86. Monday's 94.36 high cleared that range. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 7.95 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 86.86 sits 6.88 points beneath it. Over five sessions the contract rose 4.31 points from the 89.43 settle of 10/05.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 101.69 above and 71.82 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 4.89, 5.62, 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16 and 4.75. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 2.45, minus 1.76, minus 1.68, plus 0.01, minus 1.16, plus 3.21, plus 0.36 and plus 1.89.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53, 1.21 points beneath the settle, and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.28. Above the settle, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range sits at 94.28 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Monday. The 5-day average stands at 90.96, the 9-day at 90.96, the 20-day at 92.71, the 50-day at 87.30, the 100-day at 82.11 and the 200-day at 76.02.
The 93.74 settle sits 2.78 points above the 5-day average, 2.78 points above the 9-day, 1.03 points above the 20-day and 6.44 points above the 50-day, so Monday's settle moved above the 20-day average after Friday's settle sat 1.03 points beneath it. The 5-day average rose 86 cents from Friday's 90.10, because the 10/05 settle of 89.43 left the window and was replaced by 93.74. The 20-day fell 17 cents from 92.88 and the 50-day rose 30 cents from 86.99.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 92.71 against 87.30 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 83.69. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 91.03 for the 9-day, 91.69 for the 18-day and 90.00 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Tuesday session and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle, so these readings carry that caveat. The 9-day relative strength reads 58.50, the 14-day relative strength 56.79 and the 20-day relative strength 56.70.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 91.73 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 69.35 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 54.78 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 39.18 percent, so %K sits above %D in the middle of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 19.83 with the 9-day +DI at 22.39 and the 9-day -DI at 11.40; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 22.72 with the 14-day +DI at 22.47 and the 14-day -DI at 12.67, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.55 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 33.29 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is 72 percent buy, up from 32 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as good and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 24 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 75 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads hold.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.03 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.21 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.08 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.84, and the 20-day average true range is 3.91 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.28. Monday's 4.75 point range was 1.13 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.03 points from the 93.74 settle frames Tuesday between 89.71 and 97.77. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 91.60 to 95.88, two spans 90.72 to 96.76 and three spans 90.04 to 97.44. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 93.74 settle, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28 and Monday's 94.36 high come first. The published target price at 94.91 is next, followed by Pivot R1 at 95.53 and one standard deviation resistance at 95.88. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02 and two standard deviations resistance at 96.76 form the next band, with Pivot R2 at 97.32 and three standard deviations resistance at 97.44 beyond. Pivot R3 at 100.28 and the 101.69 one-month high are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle, the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 form the band that anchors the setup, with Friday's 92.17 high just beneath. The 18-day average crossing price at 91.69 and one standard deviation support at 91.60 come next, followed by the 9-day average crossing price at 91.03 and Pivot S1 at 90.78. Two standard deviations support at 90.72, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.28, three standard deviations support at 90.04 and the 40-day average crossing price at 90.00 form the next grouping, with Monday's 89.61 low beneath. Pivot S2 at 87.82, the 50-day settlement average at 87.30, the 86.86 one-month low and Pivot S3 at 86.03 follow.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No new statement from the producer alliance itself was captured on the feeds read for this review. The news feed carried at 2:31 PM ET a statement from Russia's deputy prime minister that the alliance has discussed transportation costs, which have risen significantly, and at 2:26 PM ET to 2:28 PM ET his statements that Russia and the United States are in talks on supply, that Russia can make additional diesel supplies to global markets and that Russian diesel exports may reach 3 to 3.5 million tons by year end. At 3:05 PM ET he said Russian companies are discussing diesel sales with buyers. The producer group's monthly report is listed at 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The calendars captured for this review contain no inventory release for Monday or Tuesday. The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The news feed carried at 12:30 PM ET that 604,503 barrels a day, or 30 percent, of Gulf of Mexico oil production and 25 percent of gas production is shut in; provider commentary on natural gas said offshore producers brought back supply shut down last week.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 2:02 PM ET a warning issued in Riyadh for potential danger, at 2:04 PM ET a witness report of three explosions heard in Riyadh, at 2:12 PM ET a statement from Saudi authorities that the threat had passed and at 2:14 PM ET a coalition statement that a ballistic missile fired from Yemen towards Riyadh was destroyed. At 2:21 PM ET the maritime security agency reported that a container vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting inbound through the Strait of Hormuz on October 11, and at 3:02 PM ET the British navy reported that a crude tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in Hormuz. At 3:03 PM ET the Houthis said, per the news feed, that they targeted Riyadh's airport with ballistic missiles, and at 3:18 PM ET Iranian state-affiliated media carried a Houthi warning, per the news feed, that no Saudi airspace or airport is safe except Mecca and Medina. On Russia and Ukraine, the President said at 5:00 PM ET, per the news feed, that the leaders of Ukraine and Russia have to meet and end the war, and a press report carried by the news feed said the diesel arrangement is an effort to soften Russia. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The November gasoline contract settled at 3.2917 dollars a gallon, down 0.0035 or 0.11 percent, and the November heating oil contract at 4.7232, down 0.0152 or 0.32 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On the settlement arithmetic the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, stands at 44.51 dollars a barrel against 46.55 on Friday, and the heating oil margin at 104.63 against 107.16. Both product margins narrowed because crude rose 1.89 while both product contracts slipped. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index stood at 102.59 as of 6:26 PM ET in the provider's daily record, up from Friday's 102.21 close; the desk note described the dollar's close as its highest since April. The cash Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day, per the desk note, and the ten-year yield index was unchanged at 5.24 percent. The news feed carried at 1:35 PM ET to 1:40 PM ET a regional Federal Reserve president's remarks that the question for the central bank is how fast to make policy more restrictive and that more restraint is needed. Brent's December contract settled at 106.65, up 1.84 percent, widening its premium over November WTI to 12.91 from 12.87. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,807.24, down 0.06 percent, and gold's December contract settled at 4,190.6, down 0.61 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The positioning report as of October 6, 2026, shown on the provider's overview for this review, puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13.
Open interest on the November contract is shown at 171,665 for Friday, down from 188,142 on Thursday; Monday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Monday's volume was 206,806 contracts against Friday's 230,048. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December grows through the week. The November contract settled 88 cents above December, against 84 cents on Friday, so the front of the curve remained in backwardation.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET with the November contract quoted at 93.30 at 6:18 PM ET, 44 cents beneath the settle. The President's remarks were listed at 7:00 PM ET, Japanese producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, the Australian central bank's minutes at 8:30 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed; the review's reading closed at about 6:27 PM ET, before those listed times, so they are recorded as listings only. Bias neutral to higher above the 92.57 Pivot Point, expected Globex band roughly 92.40 to 94.60 absent a headline shock.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
A Federal Reserve governor speaks at 3:45 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, and German final inflation figures are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The producer group's monthly report is listed at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 92.20 to 94.80, with the 92.50 to 92.80 band the first meaningful support.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, US Open / Pit Session)
Bank earnings begin before the cash open, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. Existing home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET with a forecast of 3.95 million, alongside a regional Federal Reserve president at 10:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 91.80 to 95.20, with Monday's 94.36 high and the 94.91 target price the first meaningful resistance.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Tuesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 91.60 to 95.50.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
The Wednesday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Tuesday. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 92.50 to 94.90
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 91.60 to 95.50
High-range scenario: 89.70 to 97.80
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 91.60 and Pivot R1 at 95.53, with Gulf and Hormuz reports deciding the side. A dip toward the 92.50 to 92.80 band that holds above the 18-day average crossing price at 91.69 is weighted above a break lower, because Monday settled at 86.9 percent of an outside-day range, moved above the 20-day settlement average, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems and the composite rose to 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a calming of the Saudi and Hormuz reports carried by the news feed, or further Russian product flows, that carries the contract through 91.60 toward Pivot S1 at 90.78.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday. The President's remarks were listed at 7:00 PM ET, Japanese producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, the Australian central bank's minutes at 8:30 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
On Tuesday, German final inflation figures are listed at 2:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and a Federal Reserve governor speaks at 3:45 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The producer group's monthly report is listed at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bank earnings begin with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. Existing home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET, and regional Federal Reserve presidents at 10:00 AM ET, 1:00 PM ET and 4:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Chinese consumer and producer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the week, the consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the next weekly petroleum status report for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Tuesday is the producer group's monthly report at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz headlines.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Monday's outside day settled at 86.9 percent of its range and above the 20-day settlement average, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 72 percent buy with direction described as strongest; a dip into the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 offers a long with a defined risk point beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60. The composite trend indicator still reads hold, and a calming of the Gulf headlines or further Russian product supply is the main risk to a long, so the setup is an analyst judgment against live supply headlines.
Entry Zone: 92.50 to 92.80
Stop Loss: 91.50 (beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60 and the 18-day average crossing price at 91.69)
Target 1 (T1): 93.80 (6 cents above Monday's 93.74 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 94.95 (4 cents above the 94.91 published target price)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 96.10 (8 cents above the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the 18-day average crossing price at 91.69 rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 91.69.
Macro override: A calming of the Saudi and Hormuz reports carried by the news feed, a bearish surprise in the producer group's monthly report, listed on the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, or confirmed Russian product flows that extend the margin compression, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a drop through the 91.50 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S1 at 90.78 and Monday's 89.61 low become the references within one 14-day average true range of 4.03 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November WTI crude contract, the November ’26 contract, prepared after Monday's close on October 12, 2026 for the Tuesday, October 13, 2026 session. Monday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 100.28 less Pivot S3 at 86.03, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 97.32 less Pivot S2 at 87.82, divided by two, both return 4.75, and three times the 92.57 Pivot Point less the 93.74 settle gives 183.97, the sum of 94.36 and 89.61. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Monday bar and the captured 30-minute bars carry the same extremes. Only those figures, the first and last 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Monday's card, which is graded as published, including its Sunday evening status line. No complete intraday series was preserved for Monday, so no claim is made about when the high or low printed and no price move is tied to a specific headline.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 259-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Tuesday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. Friday's volume and open interest come from the provider's revised 10/09 row: volume now reads 230,048 against the 202,301 cited in Monday's outlook, and open interest reads 171,665. Monday's open interest had not been reported. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or press reports.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Monday outlook covers the metal that fell 0.61 percent on Monday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
