At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, November crude settled at 95.09, up 0.95 or 1.01 percent. It was the fifth higher settle in a row and the highest since the 96.08 settle of 09/18. The session ran from 93.97 to 96.06, a 2.09 point range, the narrowest since the 1.37 point range of 08/28. The high was the highest since the 96.54 high of 09/28. Both ends moved up again. The high sat 95 cents above Tuesday's 95.11 and the low 2.27 above Tuesday's 91.70.
That narrow range never reached Wednesday's card. The long from 93.60 to 93.90 sat beneath the whole session, and the 93.97 low, set in the 5:00 AM ET bar, stopped 7 cents above the band's top. Two of the three targets printed with the band untouched.
Provider commentary said crude extended the week's rally to a two-week high as Houthi drone and missile attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on oil infrastructure, and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted regional supply, and said crude came off its best level after the dollar index rallied to what the provider described as a 1.5-year high. That is the commentary's account. The September consumer price index printed at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, and the news-feed calendar showed 0.6 percent for the month and 3.7 percent for the year against forecasts of 0.6 and 3.6 percent. In the 30-minute bars the 8:30 AM ET bar opened at 95.21 and closed at 95.69, so crude did not sell off with equities and gold on the print. No price move here is tied to a headline.
November crude settled at 95.09, up 0.95, at 53.6 percent of a 93.97 to 96.06 range. It sits above all six settlement averages. Support starts at the Pivot Point at 95.04 and the 94.60 stochastic projection, then the 94.28 retracement, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and Pivot S1 at 94.02, with Wednesday's 93.97 low just beneath. Resistance starts at the 96.02 retracement, Wednesday's 96.06 high and Pivot R1 at 96.11, then the 96.32 target price and one deviation resistance at 96.63. The setup is a long. It runs from 94.05 to 94.35, stop 93.40, targets 95.00, 95.80 and an extended 96.60, with the whole band beneath the settle, its top 74 cents under it. Inventories came after the settle. At 4:38 PM ET the news feed carried an industry estimate of an 11.12 million barrel crude draw. The calendar lists producer prices and retail sales at 8:30 AM ET Thursday and the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET.
Wednesday's low stopped 7 cents above the band as two targets printed
First, the grading. In Wednesday's outlook we set a long from 93.60 to 93.90, stop 92.85, with targets at 94.65, 95.55 and an extended 96.45. The band wrapped the Pivot Point at 93.65 and Monday's 93.74 settle. A settle beneath the 9-day average stall level at 92.87 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 93.60 would remove the edge.
Then Wednesday traded. Its bar, from the review, opened at 94.75 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 85 cents above the band's top, marked a high of 96.06 and a low of 93.97, and settled at 95.09 at 2:30 PM ET. The 30-minute bars place that low in the 5:00 AM ET bar, which traded 93.97 to 94.62 and closed at 94.61. The band never traded. Its top sat 7 cents beneath the session low, and its bottom 37 cents.
The stop was never in reach. The 93.97 low held 1.12 above 92.85 and 1.10 above the 92.87 invalidation line. No bar traded beneath 93.60, so the acceptance condition never triggered. The settle finished 2.22 above 92.87. No fill and no result is asserted.
Two of the three targets printed anyway. The 94.65 first target sat inside the first 30-minute bar, which traded 94.57 to 94.83 after the reopen. The 95.55 second target first traded in the 7:00 AM ET bar, which reached 95.99; the 6:30 AM ET bar had stopped 5 cents short. The 96.06 high came in the 1:00 PM ET bar, 39 cents short of the 96.45 extended target. Each print came with the band untouched.
Our wider ranges held this time. The most likely case of 91.80 to 96.50 contained the session, its bottom 2.17 beneath the low and its top 44 cents above the high. The high-range case of 90.10 to 98.20 and the one deviation band of 91.81 to 96.47 held it as well. The low-range case of 93.00 to 95.60 held the low. The high ran 46 cents through its top.
Session by session the record is mixed. From the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars ranged 94.28 to 95.41, 11 cents above the top of the 93.60 to 95.30 Globex band. London's bars, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, ran 93.97 to 95.99, 39 cents above the 93.20 to 95.60 band. The morning bars from 9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET ran 94.75 to 95.73, inside 92.20 to 96.50. The afternoon bars into the settle ran 94.99 to 96.06, inside 92.00 to 96.50.
The weighted path expected a hold between one standard deviation support at 91.81 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.47, with a dip toward the band holding above the 92.87 stall level. Both ends held. The low stopped 2.16 above 91.81 and the high 41 cents beneath 96.47. The dip came within 7 cents of the band and held 1.10 above 92.87. The named alternative, a move through the 92.53 retracement toward Pivot S1 at 92.19, did not come.
The 94.05 to 94.35 band, Tuesday's settle and the 50 percent retracement
Wednesday lifted the map again. The new band wraps Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28. Pivot S1 at 94.02 sits 3 cents beneath its bottom and Wednesday's 93.97 low 8 cents beneath. The stop at 93.40 sits 15 cents under one standard deviation support at 93.55, 24 cents under the 93.64 stochastic projection and 57 cents under the 93.97 low. The settle sits 74 cents above the band's top and 1.04 above its bottom. At 6:10 PM ET the Globex quote of 95.08 sat 1 cent beneath the settle.
Resistance starts a point higher. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02, Wednesday's 96.06 high and Pivot R1 at 96.11 form the first band, 93 cents to 1.02 above the settle. Next come the 96.32 target price and 96.63 one deviation resistance. Pivot R2 at 97.13 and two deviations resistance at 97.27 follow. The extended band holds the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 97.52, three deviations resistance at 97.76 and Pivot R3 at 98.20. Beyond sit the 98.94 top of one average true range and the 101.69 high, the top of the 52-week, 13-week and one-month ranges.
Support starts almost at the settle. The Pivot Point at 95.04 sits 5 cents beneath it. The 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.60 comes next. The 50 percent retracement at 94.28, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and Pivot S1 at 94.02 form the band that anchors the setup, with Wednesday's 93.97 low just beneath. The 93.64 stochastic projection and one deviation support at 93.55 follow, then the 5-day average at 93.26 and 93.20, the top of last week's span. Five lines then sit within 53 cents. Pivot S2 at 92.95, two deviations support at 92.91, the 9-18 day crossover price at 92.62, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53 and three deviations support at 92.42 make up that shelf. The 20-day average at 92.26 and Pivot S3 at 91.93 come next. The 18-day and 9-day crossing prices at 91.74 and 91.68, the 9-day average at 91.62 and the 91.24 bottom of one average true range sit beneath them. The 40-day crossing at 90.60, the 90.37 retracement from the 13-week high and the 50-day average at 88.10 lie further down, with the 86.86 one-month low, the 100-day at 82.33, the 200-day at 76.39 and the 72.05 13-week low far beneath.
Every average sits beneath price. The settle is 1.83 above the 5-day at 93.26, 3.47 above the 9-day at 91.62, 2.83 above the 20-day at 92.26 and 6.99 above the 50-day at 88.10, while the 100-day at 82.33 and the 200-day at 76.39 sit 12.76 and 18.70 beneath. The 5-day rose 1.36 from 91.90 as the 10/07 settle of 88.28 left the window and 95.09 replaced it. The 20-day fell 12 cents from 92.38 as the 09/16 settle of 97.51 left, and the 50-day rose 44 cents from 87.67. The 20-day still sits above the 50-day. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 85.33. Thursday's crossing prices are 91.68 for the 9-day, 91.74 for the 18-day and 90.60 for the 40-day.
Momentum firmed. Relative strength reads 62.58 on the 9-day, 59.37 on the 14-day and 58.48 on the 20-day. The raw stochastic reads 89.46 percent on the 9-day and 85.02 percent on the 14-day, and the 14-day %K at 75.92 percent sits above %D at 65.02 percent, in the upper half of the range. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 23.77 against 9.68 on the 9-day with the ADX at 23.99, and 23.33 against 11.44 on the 14-day with the ADX at 24.07. Historic volatility reads 27.13 percent and 31.07 percent. The composite multi-indicator read rose to 80 percent buy from 72, with signal strength described as strong and direction as strongest; it read 8 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium 75 percent and the long 67 percent. The trend indicator reads buy. These readings were published for Thursday and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, and the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle.
Wednesday ran narrow. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.85 points, 4.05 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 3.90; Wednesday's 2.09 was 0.54 times that. The 9-day figures are 3.79 and 3.53 and the 20-day 3.79 and 4.10. One average true range either side of the settle spans 91.24 to 98.94, and the deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 93.55 to 96.63, 92.91 to 97.27 and 92.42 to 97.76. They describe settlement dispersion only. Eight sessions of daily ranges read 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75, 3.41 and 2.09. Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 86.86 to 93.20, and Wednesday traded entirely above it. The 101.69 high sits 6.60 above the settle and the 86.86 one-month low 8.23 beneath it, and over five sessions the contract rose 6.81 from the 88.28 settle of 10/07. The daily bar left an upper shadow of 97 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 78 cents beneath the open.
Gulf reports, a firmer core print and an 11.12 million barrel estimate
The Saudi reports ran from the morning, per the news feed. At 9:33 AM ET the news feed carried an Iranian state media report of an explosion in Riyadh after a missile attack, with reports of damage to oil facilities. At 1:38 PM ET it carried a Houthi military statement that it attacked Riyadh's main airport with a ballistic missile. Then Jeddah. At 3:03 PM ET the news feed carried an Iranian media report that Yemeni forces targeted the Saudi energy company's oil distribution facilities in northern Jeddah, and at 3:24 PM ET a statement from Iran's revolutionary guard of a strong explosion in Jeddah.
The strait stayed in the reports. An energy-news article carried by the news feed at 3:01 PM ET said a vessel sank in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran escalated attacks on commercial vessels. At 2:52 PM ET the news feed carried a remark from Iran's parliament speaker that a US deal cannot prevent another attack on Iran, and at 3:42 PM ET a US military statement that its forces destroyed an Iranian-affiliated surveillance dhow in the Gulf of Oman on October 6. Later items followed. At 4:09 PM ET the news feed carried a Romanian naval statement that a crew was evacuated from a burning commercial vessel in Romanian waters, cause under investigation, and at 4:51 PM ET an Iranian media report that explosions were heard in Yemen's capital. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. All but the 9:33 AM ET and 1:38 PM ET items carry times after the 2:30 PM ET settle, and none is tied here to a price.
Supply statements came alongside. At 7:30 AM ET the news feed carried statements from Russia's Deputy Prime Minister that a Russia-US diesel arrangement lets Russia raise production and refining volumes, with supplies sent both to global markets and directly to the United States. Then two US items. At 12:30 PM ET it carried the President's statement that Taiwan commits 70 to 80 billion dollars of Alaska LNG offtake. An energy-news article at 6:00 PM ET said the White House used a 1950 authority to help raise fuel output at a small Texas refinery, with diesel prices above 6 dollars. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted.
The core measure came in above forecast. The news-feed calendar showed it at 0.3 percent for the month and 2.6 percent for the year, against forecasts of 0.2 and 2.5 percent. At 9:05 AM ET the news feed carried that traders fully price two Federal Reserve increases by the end of January. Two officials followed. At 2:36 PM ET it carried a regional Federal Reserve president's remark that the inflation report was higher than he had hoped, and at 3:09 PM ET to 3:20 PM ET another regional president's remarks that the report was discouraging and that more bad months of inflation would be unacceptable. The dollar firmed. The dollar index closed at 102.55 in the provider's daily record, up 0.37 from Tuesday's 102.18, after trading as high as 102.94. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.18 and 5.33 percent and closed at 5.19 percent against 5.21 percent on Tuesday.
The inventory estimate came after the settle. At 4:38 PM ET the news feed carried the industry association's weekly estimate of a crude draw of 11.12 million barrels, against a forecast build of 1.9 million and a prior draw of 2.09 million, with a Cushing build of 1.823 million barrels against 0.866 million the prior week. That release came after the 2:30 PM ET settle, so it is not reflected in the 95.09 settlement. The calendar lists the official weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The news-feed calendar lists a forecast of 150 thousand barrels for it.
Products lagged crude. The November heating oil contract settled at 4.9274 dollars a gallon, down 0.0070 or 0.14 percent, and November gasoline at 3.2595, up 0.0094 or 0.29 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin stands at 111.86 dollars a barrel against 113.10 on Tuesday, and the gasoline margin at 41.81 against 42.36. Both narrowed. Crude rose 95 cents while heating oil eased 29 cents a barrel and gasoline gained 39 cents a barrel. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.198, down 0.085. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
Brent rose less than WTI. December Brent settled at 106.06, up 0.37 or 0.35 percent, narrowing its premium over November WTI to 10.97 from 11.55. The front spread widened. December WTI settled at 93.90, so November sits 1.19 above it, against 97 cents on Tuesday, and the front of the curve remained in backwardation. Crude stood alone. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,718.94, down 1.11 percent, and December gold settled at 4,107.9, down 1.66 percent, so crude was the only one of the four contracts in these outlooks to settle higher.
Managed money had trimmed its net long into the last report. The positioning report as of October 6, 2026, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13. Wednesday's volume was 198,357 contracts against Tuesday's revised 256,161, and open interest reads 140,264 for Tuesday, down from 151,800 on Monday. Wednesday's figure was not yet reported. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December continues. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, and none is implied.
The trade map for Thursday
The review's setup is a long. It runs from 94.05 to 94.35. Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low for a fifth consecutive higher settle, and the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 80 percent buy with direction described as strongest. That is the trend case. The band wraps Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement at 94.28, and Pivot S1 at 94.02 sits 3 cents beneath its bottom. The stop sits at 93.40, beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55, with targets at 95.00, 4 cents beneath the Pivot Point at 95.04, 95.80, 22 cents beneath the 38.2 percent retracement at 96.02, and an extended 96.60, 3 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 96.63. Three caveats sit against it. The dollar rose on the day, the settle sits in the middle of a narrowing range and the official inventory report arrives during the pit session. The review calls the long an analyst judgment against live supply headlines and a scheduled release.
Now the arithmetic. From the 94.20 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.80, 20.8 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.85. The targets sit 0.80, 1.60 and 2.40 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 74 cents under it, so the setup needs a dip to engage. The 95.00 first target sits 9 cents beneath the settle itself.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 94.00 to 96.10, the most likely 93.50 to 96.70 and the high-range case 91.20 to 98.90. Then by session. Through Globex the review's judgment expects roughly 94.30 to 95.90 absent a headline shock, with a neutral to higher bias above Pivot S1 at 94.02. London follows at roughly 94.00 to 96.10. The band is its first meaningful support and Wednesday's 96.06 high its first meaningful resistance. The morning band runs 93.50 to 96.70, with Pivot R1 at 96.11 the first meaningful resistance, and the afternoon 93.30 to 97.10 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The 6:10 PM ET quote of 95.08 sat inside all of them.
Thursday's calendar starts overnight. Japanese machinery orders are listed at 7:50 PM ET Wednesday and Australian employment at 8:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists a Federal Reserve vice chair at 10:55 PM ET and the Taiwanese chipmaker's results at 2:00 AM ET. Europe comes next. UK output data are listed at 2:00 AM ET and euro-area industrial production at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the data. The calendar lists September producer prices and retail sales at 8:30 AM ET, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.6 percent for monthly producer prices and 0.3 percent for retail sales. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia and New York manufacturing surveys are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists business inventories at 10:00 AM ET and the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. A Federal Reserve bank president is listed at 4:30 PM ET and the Bank of England governor at 10:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the calendar lists the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director at 11:30 PM ET. On Friday, October 16, 2026, the calendar lists import prices at 8:30 AM ET and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET. The November contract expires on 10/20/26.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 93.55 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.63, with the official inventory report and Gulf headlines deciding the side. A dip toward the 94.05 to 94.35 band that holds above 93.55 is weighted above a break lower in that judgment. It names an alternative. An official report that fails to confirm the industry draw, or a further rise in the dollar, would carry the contract through Pivot S2 at 92.95 toward the 20-day settlement average at 92.26. Scheduled risk comes at midday. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Thursday is the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz headlines.
Wednesday's low missed the old band by 7 cents; Thursday's band starts 8 cents above that low.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 95.09 on Wednesday, up 0.95 or 1.01 percent from Tuesday's settle of 94.14, after trading between 96.06 and 93.97, a 2.09 point daily range. The settle finished at 53.6 percent of the range, and the 2.09 point range was 0.54 times the published 14-day average daily range of 3.90 points. Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday, and the settle was the fifth consecutive higher settle for the November contract. The 95.09 settle was the highest since the 96.08 settle of 09/18, and the 96.06 high the highest since the 96.54 high of 09/28. The 2.09 point range was the narrowest since the 1.37 point range of 08/28.
Provider commentary said crude extended the week's rally to a two-week high as Houthi drone and missile attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on oil infrastructure, and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted regional supply, and said crude came off its best level after the dollar index rallied to what the provider described as a 1.5-year high. The September consumer price index printed at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar showing 0.6 percent for the month and 3.7 percent for the year against forecasts of 0.6 and 3.6 percent, and 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent for the core measure against 0.2 and 2.5 percent. In the recorded 30-minute series the 8:30 AM ET bar opened at 95.21 and closed at 95.69, so crude did not sell off with equities and gold on the print.
Brent's December contract settled at 106.06, up 0.37 or 0.35 percent, so Brent's premium over November WTI narrowed to 10.97 from 11.55. The December WTI contract settled at 93.90, leaving November 1.19 above December against 97 cents on Tuesday. The dollar index closed at 102.55, up 0.37, and the ten-year yield index closed at 5.19 percent against 5.21 percent on Tuesday after trading as high as 5.33 percent. After the settle, the news feed carried at 4:38 PM ET an industry estimate of an 11.12 million barrel crude draw against a forecast build of 1.9 million, with a 1.823 million barrel build at Cushing.
The Thursday session carries the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, after producer prices and retail sales at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. The published 14-day average true range of 3.85 points is 4.05 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 94.05 to 94.35 band, around Pivot S1 at 94.02, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement at 94.28, stopped at 93.40 beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55, with objectives at 95.00, 95.80 and an extended 96.60.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 94.75 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 61 cents above Tuesday's settle, marked a daily high of 96.06 and a daily low of 93.97, and settled at 95.09 at 2:30 PM ET. The recorded 30-minute series for the session places the session low of 93.97 in the 5:00 AM ET bar and the session high of 96.06 in the 1:00 PM ET bar. The 7:00 AM ET bar closed at 95.92 before the 8:00 AM ET bar fell back to 95.20, and the 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the inflation release, traded between 95.20 and 95.78 and closed at 95.69. The 2:00 PM ET bar traded between 95.69 and 94.99 and closed at 95.10. The daily high and low are full Globex session extremes, from the 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 5:00 PM ET pause, rather than extremes of the settlement window.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 95.09 at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 95.17; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the provider's displayed day open, high and low of 95.19, 95.31 and 94.95 belong to the new session dated Thursday, not to Wednesday, and are not used as Wednesday's range.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 98.20 minus Pivot S3 at 91.93, divided by three, returns 2.09, and Pivot R2 at 97.13 minus Pivot S2 at 92.95, divided by two, returns the same 2.09. Three times the Pivot Point of 95.04 less the 95.09 settle gives a high plus low sum of 190.03, which the pair of 96.06 and 93.97 reproduces, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Wednesday daily bar and the extremes of the recorded 30-minute series carry the same 96.06 high and 93.97 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday: the 96.06 high sits 95 cents above Tuesday's 95.11, and the 93.97 low sits 2.27 points above Tuesday's 91.70. The settle at 53.6 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 97 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 78 cents beneath the 94.75 open on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 90.98, 93.20, 92.17, 94.36, 95.11 and 96.06, and the sequence of session lows reads 87.96, 88.77, 90.01, 89.61, 91.70 and 93.97. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 88.28, 91.49, 91.85, 93.74, 94.14 and 95.09.
Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 93.20 to 86.86, and Wednesday traded entirely above that span. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69 sits 6.60 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 86.86 sits 8.23 points beneath it. Over five sessions the contract rose 6.81 points from the 88.28 settle of 10/07, matching the provider's five-day change of plus 6.81.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 101.69 above and 72.05 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 3.14, 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75, 3.41 and 2.09. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 1.68, plus 0.01, minus 1.16, plus 3.21, plus 0.36, plus 1.89, plus 0.40 and plus 0.95.
The retracement grid published for Thursday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02, 93 cents above the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28, 81 cents beneath it. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.53 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.37. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars and the recorded 30-minute session.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Wednesday. The 5-day average stands at 93.26, the 9-day at 91.62, the 20-day at 92.26, the 50-day at 88.10, the 100-day at 82.33 and the 200-day at 76.39.
The 95.09 settle sits 1.83 points above the 5-day average, 3.47 points above the 9-day, 2.83 points above the 20-day and 6.99 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 1.36 from Tuesday's 91.90, because the 10/07 settle of 88.28 left the window and was replaced by 95.09. The 20-day fell 12 cents from 92.38, because the 09/16 settle of 97.51 left that window, and the 50-day rose 44 cents from 87.67.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 92.26 against 88.10 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 85.33. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Thursday: 91.68 for the 9-day, 91.74 for the 18-day and 90.60 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Thursday session and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle, so these readings carry that caveat. The 9-day relative strength reads 62.58, the 14-day relative strength 59.37 and the 20-day relative strength 58.48.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 89.46 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 85.02 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 75.92 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 65.02 percent, so %K sits above %D in the upper half of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 23.99 with the 9-day +DI at 23.77 and the 9-day -DI at 9.68; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 24.07 with the 14-day +DI at 23.33 and the 14-day -DI at 11.44, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 27.13 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 31.07 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is 80 percent buy, up from 72 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as strong and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 8 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 75 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.85 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.90 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.79 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.53, and the 20-day average true range is 3.79 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.10. Wednesday's 2.09 point range was 0.54 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.85 points from the 95.09 settle frames Thursday between 91.24 and 98.94. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 93.55 to 96.63, two spans 92.91 to 97.27 and three spans 92.42 to 97.76. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 95.09 settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 96.02, Wednesday's 96.06 high and Pivot R1 at 96.11 form the first band. The published target price at 96.32 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.63 come next, followed by Pivot R2 at 97.13 and two standard deviations resistance at 97.27. The 3-10 day crossover stall level at 97.52, three standard deviations resistance at 97.76 and Pivot R3 at 98.20 form the extended band, with the 101.69 one-month high beyond.
3.2 Support
Immediately beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 95.04, with the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.60 next. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.28, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and Pivot S1 at 94.02 form the band that anchors the setup, with Wednesday's 93.97 low just beneath. The 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 93.64 and one standard deviation support at 93.55 come next, followed by Pivot S2 at 92.95, two standard deviations support at 92.91, the 9-18 day crossover price at 92.62 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53. Three standard deviations support at 92.42, the 20-day settlement average at 92.26 and Pivot S3 at 91.93 are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The news feed carried at 7:30 AM ET statements from Russia's Deputy Prime Minister that a Russia-US diesel arrangement lets Russia raise production and refining volumes, with supplies sent both to global markets and directly to the United States. At 12:30 PM ET it carried the President's statement that Taiwan commits 70 to 80 billion dollars of Alaska LNG offtake, and an energy-news article at 6:00 PM ET said the White House used a 1950 authority to help raise fuel output at a small Texas refinery with diesel prices above 6 dollars. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The news feed carried at 4:38 PM ET the industry association's weekly estimate of a crude draw of 11.12 million barrels against a forecast build of 1.9 million and a prior draw of 2.09 million, with a Cushing build of 1.823 million barrels against 0.866 million the prior week. That release came after the 2:30 PM ET settle, so it is not reflected in the 95.09 settlement. The official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday; the news-feed calendar lists a forecast of 150 thousand barrels for it.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 9:33 AM ET an Iranian state media report of an explosion in Riyadh after a missile attack with reports of damage to oil facilities, and at 1:38 PM ET a Houthi military statement that it attacked Riyadh's main airport with a ballistic missile. At 3:03 PM ET it carried an Iranian media report that Yemeni forces targeted the Saudi energy company's oil distribution facilities in northern Jeddah, and at 3:24 PM ET a statement from Iran's revolutionary guard of a strong explosion in Jeddah. At 2:52 PM ET Iran's parliament speaker said a US deal cannot prevent another attack on Iran, and at 3:42 PM ET the US military said its forces destroyed an Iranian-affiliated surveillance dhow in the Gulf of Oman on October 6. An energy-news article at 3:01 PM ET said a vessel sank in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran escalated attacks on commercial vessels. At 4:09 PM ET a Romanian naval statement said a crew was evacuated from a burning commercial vessel in Romanian waters, cause under investigation, and at 4:51 PM ET an Iranian media report said explosions were heard in Yemen's capital. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The November heating oil contract settled at 4.9274 dollars a gallon, down 0.0070 or 0.14 percent, and the November gasoline contract at 3.2595, up 0.0094 or 0.29 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider's settlement rows. On the settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 111.86 dollars a barrel against 113.10 on Tuesday, and the gasoline margin at 41.81 against 42.36. Both margins narrowed because crude rose 95 cents while heating oil eased and gasoline gained less than crude on a per-barrel basis. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.198, down 0.085. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 102.55 in the provider's daily record, up 0.37 from Tuesday's 102.18, after trading as high as 102.94. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.18 and 5.33 percent and closed at 5.19 percent against 5.21 percent on Tuesday. The news feed carried at 9:05 AM ET that traders fully price two Federal Reserve increases by the end of January, at 2:36 PM ET a regional Federal Reserve president's remark that the inflation report was higher than he had hoped, and at 3:09 PM ET to 3:20 PM ET another regional president's remarks that the report was discouraging and that more bad months of inflation would be unacceptable. Brent's December contract settled at 106.06, up 0.35 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,718.94, down 1.11 percent, and gold's December contract settled at 4,107.9, down 1.66 percent, so crude was the only one of the four instruments in this package to settle higher.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The positioning report as of October 6, 2026, shown on the provider's overview for this review, puts managed money long at 178,353 contracts, down 30,675, against short at 124,755, down 4,681, a net long of 53,598. Commercials held 894,330 long, up 20,693, against 1,020,788 short, up 4,533. The next report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13.
Open interest on the November contract is shown at 140,264 for Tuesday, down from 151,800 on Monday; Wednesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Wednesday's volume was 198,357 contracts against Tuesday's revised 256,161. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December continues. The November contract settled 1.19 above December, against 97 cents on Tuesday, so the front of the curve remained in backwardation and the spread widened.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the industry inventory estimate, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET with the November contract quoted at 95.08 at 6:10 PM ET, one cent beneath the settle, after the industry inventory estimate at 4:38 PM ET. Japanese machinery orders are listed at 7:50 PM ET and Australian employment at 8:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 10:55 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and the Taiwanese chipmaker reports at 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, as the calendar lists it. Bias neutral to higher above Pivot S1 at 94.02, expected Globex band roughly 94.30 to 95.90 absent a headline shock.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
UK output data are listed at 2:00 AM ET and euro-area industrial production at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 94.00 to 96.10, with the 94.05 to 94.35 band the first meaningful support and Wednesday's 96.06 high the first meaningful resistance.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, US Open / Pit Session)
Producer prices and retail sales for September print at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, before this window opens, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.6 percent for monthly producer prices and 0.3 percent for retail sales. Weekly jobless claims and two regional manufacturing surveys are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Expected band roughly 93.50 to 96.70, with Pivot R1 at 96.11 the first meaningful resistance.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Thursday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and is the scheduled crude-specific test of the industry estimate's 11.12 million barrel draw. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 93.30 to 97.10.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
The Friday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. A Federal Reserve bank president is listed at 4:30 PM ET and the Bank of England governor at 10:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled for 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Import prices are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 94.00 to 96.10
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 93.50 to 96.70
High-range scenario: 91.20 to 98.90
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 93.55 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.63, with the official inventory report and Gulf headlines deciding the side. A dip toward the 94.05 to 94.35 band that holds above 93.55 is weighted above a break lower, because Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low for a fifth consecutive higher settle, the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems and the composite rose to 80 percent buy with direction described as strongest. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is an official report that fails to confirm the industry draw, or a further rise in the dollar, that carries the contract through Pivot S2 at 92.95 toward the 20-day settlement average at 92.26.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday. Japanese machinery orders are listed at 7:50 PM ET and Australian employment at 8:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 10:55 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.
On Thursday, the Taiwanese chipmaker reports at 2:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. UK output data are listed at 2:00 AM ET and euro-area industrial production at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Producer prices and retail sales for September print at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, with the news-feed calendar listing 0.6 percent for monthly producer prices and 0.3 percent for retail sales. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia and New York manufacturing surveys are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. The weekly petroleum status report is scheduled at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. A Federal Reserve bank president is listed at 4:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled at 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.
Later in the window, import prices are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, and industrial production for 9:15 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Thursday is the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, set against unscheduled Saudi and Hormuz headlines.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low for a fifth consecutive higher settle, the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 80 percent buy with direction described as strongest; a dip into Pivot S1 at 94.02, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement at 94.28 offers a long with a defined risk point beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55. The dollar rose on the day, the settle sits in the middle of a narrowing range and the official inventory report arrives during the pit session, so the setup is an analyst judgment against live supply headlines and a scheduled release.
Entry Zone: 94.05 to 94.35
Stop Loss: 93.40 (beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55)
Target 1 (T1): 95.00 (4 cents beneath the Pivot Point at 95.04)
Target 2 (T2): 95.80 (22 cents beneath the 38.2 percent retracement at 96.02)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 96.60 (3 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 96.63)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 94.05.
Macro override: An official inventory report that shows a build instead of the industry draw, or a calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines with a firmer dollar, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a drop through the 93.40 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S2 at 92.95 and the 38.2 percent retracement at 92.53 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 3.85 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November WTI crude contract, the November ’26 contract, prepared after Wednesday's close on October 14, 2026 for the Thursday, October 15, 2026 session. Wednesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 98.20 less Pivot S3 at 91.93, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 97.13 less Pivot S2 at 92.95, divided by two, both return 2.09, and three times the 95.04 Pivot Point less the 95.09 settle gives 190.03, the sum of 96.06 and 93.97. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Wednesday bar and the 30-minute bars carry the same extremes. Those figures, the 46 30-minute bars from the 6:00 PM ET Tuesday reopen to the 4:30 PM ET Wednesday bar and the review's statements are used to grade Wednesday's card, which is graded as published. Every timed intraday statement rests on those bars, and no price move is tied to a specific headline.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 259-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Thursday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. Tuesday's volume and open interest come from the provider's revised 10/13 row: volume now reads 256,161 against the 224,970 cited in Wednesday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 140,264. Wednesday's open interest had not been reported. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the industry inventory estimate, the Brent spread, the November to December spread and the product margins. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the metal that fell 1.66 percent on Wednesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
