At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, the November crude contract settled at 97.97, up 2.88 or 3.03 percent. It was the sixth higher settle in a row and the highest since the 100.75 settle of 09/15. The session ran from 93.58 to 98.32, a 4.74 point range, the widest since the 4.75 point range of 10/12, and the 2.88 gain was the largest since the 3.21 gain of 10/08. It was an outside day. The high sat 2.26 above Wednesday's 96.06 and the low 39 cents beneath Wednesday's 93.97.
That low reached Thursday's card. The long from 94.05 to 94.35 first traded in the 8:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening, and the 93.58 low came in the 9:30 PM ET bar, 18 cents above the 93.40 stop. Two closes beneath 94.05 followed, meeting the card's own acceptance rule. All three targets traded after that.
The official weekly petroleum status report printed at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and the news feed carried a crude draw of 8.557 million barrels against a forecast build of 0.15 million. In the 30-minute bars the 12:00 PM ET bar opened at 97.79, marked the session high of 98.32 and closed at 98.22, so the session high coincided with the release window. The advance had started earlier. The 9:00 AM ET bar closed at 96.21 and the 11:00 AM ET bar at 97.60. No price move here is tied to a headline.
November crude settled at 97.97, up 2.88, at 92.6 percent of a 93.58 to 98.32 range. It sits above all six settlement averages. Support starts at the Pivot Point at 96.62, inside the new band, then the 96.03 stochastic projection and one deviation support at 95.73, with the 95.36 retracement, Wednesday's 95.09 settle and Pivot S1 at 94.93 beneath. Resistance starts at Thursday's 98.32 high, then the 99.32 target price, Pivot R1 at 99.67 and one deviation resistance at 100.21. The setup is a long. It runs from 96.40 to 96.70, stop 95.60, targets 97.50, 98.45 and an extended 99.40. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.27 under it, and the first target sits 47 cents beneath the settle too. The calendar lists import prices at 8:30 AM ET Friday and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider.
Thursday's low held 18 cents above the stop, then all three targets printed
First, the grading. In Thursday's outlook we set a long from 94.05 to 94.35, stop 93.40, with targets at 95.00, 95.80 and an extended 96.60. The band wrapped Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement at 94.28. A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 94.05 would remove the edge.
Then Thursday traded. Its bar, from the review, opened at 95.19 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 84 cents above the band's top, marked a high of 98.32 and a low of 93.58, and settled at 97.97 at 2:30 PM ET. The band came early. The 8:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening dipped to 94.33, 2 cents inside the band's top. The 9:00 PM ET bar traded through its bottom to 93.90 and closed back at 94.29. The 9:30 PM ET bar set the session low of 93.58, 47 cents beneath the band's bottom, and closed at 93.75.
The stop held. The 93.58 low stayed 18 cents above 93.40 and 3 cents above the 93.55 invalidation line, and the settle finished 4.42 above that line. The acceptance rule did trigger. The 9:30 PM ET bar closed at 93.75 and the 10:00 PM ET bar at 94.00, two consecutive closes beneath 94.05, so by the card's own definition the edge was removed there. No fill and no result is asserted.
The targets came later. The 95.00 first target sat inside the first two 30-minute bars after the reopen, before the band traded. It did not trade again until the 4:30 AM ET bar, which reached 95.39. Then the second target. The 95.80 second target first traded in the 9:00 AM ET bar, which reached 96.33; the 8:30 AM ET bar had stopped 26 cents short at 95.54. The 96.60 extended target first traded in the 10:00 AM ET bar, which reached 96.78, and the settle finished 1.37 above it. Each of those prints came after the acceptance rule had been met.
Our wider ranges split. The high-range case of 91.20 to 98.90 contained the session, its bottom 2.38 beneath the low and its top 58 cents above the high. The narrower ones gave way. The most likely case of 93.50 to 96.70 held the low by 8 cents. Its top gave way by 1.62. The one deviation band of 93.55 to 96.63 held the low by 3 cents and gave way by 1.69 at the top. The low-range case of 94.00 to 96.10 broke at both ends, by 42 cents and 2.22.
Session by session, no band held both ends. From the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars ranged 93.58 to 95.31, 72 cents beneath the bottom of the 94.30 to 95.90 Globex band. London broke low as well. London's bars, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, ran 93.70 to 95.49, 30 cents beneath the 94.00 to 96.10 band. The day sessions broke high. The morning bars from 9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET ran 95.24 to 97.85, 1.15 above the top of 93.50 to 96.70. The afternoon bars into the settle ran 97.61 to 98.32, 1.22 above the top of 93.30 to 97.10.
The weighted path expected a hold between one standard deviation support at 93.55 and one standard deviation resistance at 96.63, with a dip toward the band holding above 93.55. The dip came. It held by 3 cents. The high then ran 1.69 through 96.63. The named alternative, a move through Pivot S2 at 92.95 toward the 20-day average at 92.26, did not come, and the low stayed 63 cents above 92.95. The card's macro override named an official build in place of the industry draw; the news feed carried an official draw of 8.557 million barrels.
The 96.40 to 96.70 band and the Pivot Point at 96.62
The map moved up again. The new band wraps the Pivot Point at 96.62, 22 cents above its bottom and 8 cents beneath its top. The 96.03 stochastic projection sits 37 cents beneath the band and Wednesday's 96.06 high 34 cents beneath. The stop at 95.60 sits 13 cents under one standard deviation support at 95.73 and 24 cents above the 95.36 retracement. The settle sits 1.27 above the band's top and 1.57 above its bottom. At 6:32 PM ET the Globex quote of 97.52 sat 45 cents beneath the settle, 82 cents above the band and 2 cents above the first target.
Resistance starts 35 cents up. Thursday's 98.32 high is the first reference, then the published target price at 99.32 and Pivot R1 at 99.67, 1.35 and 1.70 above the settle. One deviation resistance at 100.21 and the 100.61 one-month high come next. Two deviations resistance at 101.14 and Pivot R2 at 101.36 follow. The extended band holds the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 101.63, the 101.69 52-week and 13-week high, three deviations resistance at 101.85 and the 101.88 top of one average true range. Pivot R3 at 104.41 lies beyond.
Support starts 1.35 down at the Pivot Point. The 96.03 stochastic projection and one deviation support at 95.73 come next, then the 95.36 retracement from the four-week high and Wednesday's 95.09 settle. Three lines then sit within 13 cents. Pivot S1 at 94.93, the 94.88 stochastic projection and two deviations support at 94.80 make up that shelf, with the 5-day average at 94.56 beneath. The deeper band follows. Three deviations support at 94.09, the 94.06 bottom of one average true range, the 50 percent retracement at 93.74 and Thursday's 93.58 low form the deeper band, with 93.20, the top of last week's span, under it. The 9-day crossing price at 92.75, the 9-day average at 92.38, the 20-day at 92.30, the 18-day crossing at 92.18 and the 92.11 retracement from the four-week low come next, then Pivot S2 at 91.88. Then the long tail. The 40-day crossing at 90.94, the 90.37 retracement from the 13-week high, Pivot S3 at 90.19 and this week's 89.61 low lie further down, with the 50-day average at 88.60, last week's 86.86 low, the 100-day at 82.47, the 200-day at 76.59 and the 72.05 13-week low far beneath.
Every average sits beneath price. The settle is 3.41 above the 5-day at 94.56, 5.59 above the 9-day at 92.38, 5.67 above the 20-day at 92.30 and 9.37 above the 50-day at 88.60, while the 100-day at 82.47 and the 200-day at 76.59 sit 15.50 and 21.38 beneath. The 5-day rose 1.30 from 93.26 as the 10/08 settle of 91.49 left the window and 97.97 replaced it. The 20-day rose 4 cents from 92.26 as the 09/17 settle of 97.23 left, and the 50-day rose 50 cents from 88.10. The 20-day still sits above the 50-day. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 86.14, and the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window 76.34. Friday's crossing prices are 92.75 for the 9-day, 92.18 for the 18-day and 90.94 for the 40-day.
Momentum stretched. Relative strength reads 69.93 on the 9-day, 64.37 on the 14-day and 62.02 on the 20-day. Both raw stochastics read 96.95 percent, and the 14-day %K at 85.12 percent sits above %D at 75.13 percent, near the top of the range. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 27.00 against 8.38 on the 9-day with the ADX at 27.17, and 25.44 against 10.45 on the 14-day with the ADX at 25.34. Historic volatility reads 26.41 percent and 31.24 percent. The composite multi-indicator read rose to 96 percent buy from 80, with signal strength described as strong and direction as strongest; it read 32 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 100 percent buy, the medium 75 percent and the long 100 percent. The trend indicator reads buy. These readings were published for Friday and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, and the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle.
Thursday ran wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.91 points, 3.99 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 4.01; Thursday's 4.74 was 1.18 times that. The 9-day figures are 3.90 and 3.44 and the 20-day 3.84 and 4.18. One average true range either side of the settle spans 94.06 to 101.88, and the deviation bands, built from five settlements, run 95.73 to 100.21, 94.80 to 101.14 and 94.09 to 101.85. They describe settlement dispersion only. Eight sessions of daily ranges read 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75, 3.41, 2.09 and 4.74. Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 86.86 to 93.20. This week through Thursday spans 89.61 to 98.32, with the contract 6.12 above last Friday's 91.85 settle. The 101.69 high sits 3.72 above the settle and the 100.61 one-month high 2.64 above it, and over five sessions the contract rose 6.48 from the 91.49 settle of 10/08. The daily bar left an upper shadow of 35 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 1.61 beneath the open.
An 8.557 million barrel draw, stock-release statements and a softer dollar
Midday brought the official report. The weekly petroleum status report printed at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, as the calendar lists it, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The news feed carried a crude draw of 8.557 million barrels against a forecast build of 0.15 million and a prior draw of 3.186 million. Products split. It carried a gasoline build of 3.518 million barrels against a forecast draw of 0.911 million, a distillate draw of 2.527 million against a forecast draw of 1.72 million, and a Cushing build of 1.862 million barrels against 0.444 million the prior week. The estimate ran larger. The official crude draw was smaller than the industry estimate of 11.12 million barrels carried by the feed at 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, and both pointed the same way. Provider commentary said crude gains accelerated and gasoline fell after the crude draw and the gasoline build. The calendar lists the next official report at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
Stock-release statements came first. At 7:52 AM ET the news feed carried the President's remark that he may support a federal diesel tax suspension. At 8:24 AM ET it carried that the United States told member nations of the International Energy Agency it was unhappy with the emergency oil release and suggested supplementing it with an extra 100 million barrels. Two agency items followed. At 9:40 AM ET the feed carried that the agency agreed to complete the release of the outstanding 100 million barrels and seeks to release 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible, and at 9:42 AM ET that the release announced in March is going to exceed 400 million barrels. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review. Crude rose through the morning despite the stock-release headlines. The 9:30 AM ET bar closed at 95.88 and the 10:00 AM ET bar at 96.56. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted.
Gulf reports filled the day. At 8:51 AM ET the news feed carried a French foreign ministry statement that France is putting into action operational elements of an agreement to help protect Saudi oil facilities. At 10:04 AM ET it carried a renewed Houthi warning that Saudi airspace and airports are unsafe and witness reports of four booms near the presidential palace in Aden, and at 10:47 AM ET an Iranian media report that Yemen rejected a Saudi request for talks in Oman. Then a vessel. At 1:14 PM ET the news feed carried a US statement that the civilian vessel M/V GFS Pride was hit by a projectile from Iran's revolutionary guard and that a civilian container vessel sank while being towed to shore.
Later items followed. An energy-news article at 3:31 PM ET said Ukraine struck a major Russian oil refinery. After the settle, at 4:36 PM ET, the news feed carried press reports that the Secretary of State spoke with Israel's Prime Minister. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. Provider commentary attributed Thursday's strength in part to Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, and cited investment-bank commentary estimating a geopolitical risk premium in the price. That is the commentary's account.
Producer prices ran above forecast. At 8:30 AM ET they came in at 1.3 percent for the month against a 0.6 percent forecast and 6.3 percent for the year against 5.4 percent, per the news feed, while retail sales rose 0.8 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast. In the 30-minute bars the 8:30 AM ET bar traded between 94.82 and 95.54 and closed at 95.31. The dollar eased anyway. The dollar index closed at 102.00 in the provider's daily record, down 0.55 from Wednesday's 102.55, after trading as low as 101.88. Yields slid too. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.04 and 5.11 percent and closed at 5.09 percent against 5.19 percent on Wednesday. Yields fell and the dollar eased despite the hotter producer-price print, as feed headlines described haven demand for bonds amid the selloff in artificial-intelligence shares. A weaker dollar is a supportive input for dollar-priced crude; the size of that effect is not measured here.
Products fell as crude rose. The November heating oil contract settled at 4.8456 dollars a gallon, down 0.0818, and November gasoline at 3.1802, down 0.0793 or 2.43 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider. On settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin stands at 105.55 dollars a barrel against 111.86 on Wednesday, and the gasoline margin at 35.60 against 41.81. Each lost more than 6 dollars. Both margins narrowed because crude rose 2.88 while both products fell, consistent with the gasoline build in the official report. Per barrel, heating oil fell 3.44 and gasoline 3.33. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.236, up 0.038, after a storage injection of 67 billion cubic feet against a forecast of 74 billion at 10:30 AM ET. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
Brent slipped. December Brent settled at 105.92, down 0.14 or 0.13 percent, narrowing its premium over November WTI to 7.95 from 10.97. The front spread widened. December WTI settled at 96.50, so November sits 1.47 above it, against 1.19 on Wednesday, and the front of the curve remained in backwardation. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,744.06, up 0.33 percent, and December gold settled at 4,170.1, up 1.51 percent.
Roll activity continues. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26. The chart's continuous symbol has already rolled to December, so every level here is read on the November contract itself. Thursday's volume was 197,019 contracts against Wednesday's revised 226,764, and open interest reads 113,474 for Wednesday, down from 140,264 on Tuesday. Thursday's figure was not yet reported. The December contract traded 232,666 contracts on Thursday, with open interest of 302,291 for Wednesday. No weekly positioning report was captured, so no managed-money or commercial figure is asserted, and no dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Friday
The review's setup is a long. It runs from 96.40 to 96.70. Thursday printed an outside day that settled at 92.6 percent of its range for a sixth consecutive higher settle, and the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 96 percent buy with direction described as strongest. That is the trend case. The band wraps the Pivot Point at 96.62, with the 96.03 stochastic projection 37 cents beneath its bottom. The stop sits at 95.60, beneath one standard deviation support at 95.73, with targets at 97.50, 47 cents beneath Thursday's 97.97 settle, 98.45, 13 cents above Thursday's 98.32 high, and an extended 99.40, 8 cents above the published target price at 99.32. Two caveats sit against it. Both raw stochastics sit at 96.95 percent, and the official report showed a gasoline build. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that dips are bought while supply headlines persist, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 96.55 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.95, 24.3 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.91. The targets sit 0.95, 1.90 and 2.85 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.27 and its bottom 1.57 under it. The 97.50 first target sits 47 cents beneath the settle itself and 80 cents above the band's top.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 96.40 to 99.70, the most likely 95.70 to 100.20 and the high-range case 94.10 to 101.90. Then by session. Through Globex the review's judgment expects roughly 96.60 to 98.40 absent a headline shock, with a neutral to higher bias above the Pivot Point at 96.62. London follows at roughly 96.40 to 98.60. The band is its first meaningful support and Thursday's 98.32 high its first meaningful resistance. The morning band runs 95.70 to 99.70, with the 99.32 target price and Pivot R1 at 99.67 the first meaningful resistance above Thursday's high. The afternoon runs 95.70 to 100.20 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The 6:32 PM ET quote of 97.52 sat inside all of them.
Friday's calendar starts overnight. A Federal Reserve bank president spoke at 4:30 PM ET Thursday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and at 5:15 PM ET the news feed carried commentary that she urged more tightening. The Bank of England governor is listed at 10:00 PM ET and a European Central Bank board member at 10:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director at 11:30 PM ET. Europe follows. The Bank of Canada governor is listed at 12:15 AM ET Friday and final euro-area consumer prices at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the data. The calendar lists September import prices at 8:30 AM ET and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.9 percent for monthly import prices and 0.4 percent for industrial production. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. A Friday settle carries two days of headline exposure into the 6:00 PM ET reopen on Sunday, October 18, 2026. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, and the calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 95.73 and one standard deviation resistance at 100.21, with Gulf headlines and the dollar deciding the side. A dip toward the 96.40 to 96.70 band that holds above 95.73 is weighted above a break lower in that judgment. It names an alternative. A calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines, or a renewed rise in the dollar, would carry the contract through Pivot S1 at 94.93 toward Thursday's 93.58 low. With both raw stochastics at 96.95 percent, the review reads room for a pullback before any extension. Unscheduled headlines lead. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Friday is unscheduled Saudi, Red Sea and Hormuz headlines, with import prices at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, the main scheduled input through the dollar.
Thursday's dip went 47 cents through the old band and held above its stop; Friday's band sits 1.27 beneath the settle.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 97.97 on Thursday, up 2.88 or 3.03 percent from Wednesday's settle of 95.09, after trading between 98.32 and 93.58, a 4.74 point daily range. The settle finished at 92.6 percent of the range, and the 4.74 point range was 1.18 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.01 points. Thursday printed a higher high and a lower low against Wednesday, an outside day, and the settle was the sixth consecutive higher settle for the November contract.
The 97.97 settle was the highest since the 100.75 settle of 09/15, and the 98.32 high the highest since the 100.61 high of 09/16. The 2.88 point gain was the largest since the 3.21 point gain of 10/08, and the 4.74 point range the widest since the 4.75 point range of 10/12.
The official weekly petroleum status report printed at 12:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and the news feed carried a crude draw of 8.557 million barrels against a forecast build of 0.15 million, with gasoline up 3.518 million barrels against a forecast draw, distillates down 2.527 million and Cushing up 1.862 million. In the recorded 30-minute series the 12:00 PM ET bar opened at 97.79, marked the session high of 98.32 and closed at 98.22, so the session high coincided with the release window. The advance had started earlier: the 9:00 AM ET bar closed at 96.21 and the 11:00 AM ET bar at 97.60.
Brent's December contract settled at 105.92, down 0.14, so Brent's premium over November WTI narrowed to 7.95 from 10.97. The December WTI contract settled at 96.50, leaving November 1.47 above December against 1.19 on Wednesday. The dollar index closed at 102.00, down 0.55, and the ten-year yield index closed at 5.09 percent against 5.19 percent on Wednesday.
The Friday session carries import prices at 8:30 AM ET and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET, both as the calendar lists them. The published 14-day average true range of 3.91 points is 3.99 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 96.40 to 96.70 band around the Pivot Point at 96.62, stopped at 95.60 beneath one standard deviation support at 95.73, with objectives at 97.50, 98.45 and an extended 99.40.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Thursday session opened at 95.19 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 10 cents above Wednesday's settle, marked a daily high of 98.32 and a daily low of 93.58, and settled at 97.97 at 2:30 PM ET. The recorded 30-minute series for the session places the session low of 93.58 in the 9:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening, which closed at 93.75, and the session high of 98.32 in the 12:00 PM ET bar on Thursday.
The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the producer price and retail sales releases, traded between 94.82 and 95.54 and closed at 95.31. The 9:00 AM ET bar traded up to 96.33 and closed at 96.21, the 10:00 AM ET bar closed at 96.56 and the 11:00 AM ET bar closed at 97.60. The 12:00 PM ET bar, which contains the official inventory release, traded between 97.61 and 98.32 and closed at 98.22, and the 2:00 PM ET bar closed at 97.92.
The news feed recorded the NYMEX settlement at 97.97, up 2.88, at 2:31 PM ET. After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 97.55; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the provider's displayed day open, high and low of 97.55, 97.90 and 97.40 belong to the new session dated Friday, not to Thursday, and are not used as Thursday's range.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 104.41 minus Pivot S3 at 90.19, divided by three, returns 4.74, and Pivot R2 at 101.36 minus Pivot S2 at 91.88, divided by two, returns the same 4.74. Three times the Pivot Point of 96.62 less the 97.97 settle gives a high plus low sum of 191.89, which the pair of 98.32 and 93.58 reproduces to the published rounding at 191.90, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Thursday daily bar on NYMEX:CLX2026 and the extremes of the recorded 30-minute series carry the same 98.32 high and 93.58 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Thursday printed an outside day against Wednesday: the 98.32 high sits 2.26 points above Wednesday's 96.06, and the 93.58 low sits 39 cents beneath Wednesday's 93.97. The settle at 92.6 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 35 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 1.61 points beneath the 95.19 open on the daily bar.
The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 93.20, 92.17, 94.36, 95.11, 96.06 and 98.32, and the sequence of session lows reads 88.77, 90.01, 89.61, 91.70, 93.97 and 93.58. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 91.49, 91.85, 93.74, 94.14, 95.09 and 97.97.
Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 93.20 to 86.86, and this week through Thursday has spanned 98.32 to 89.61, with the contract 6.12 points above last Friday's 91.85 settle. The 52-week and 13-week high of 101.69 sits 3.72 points above the settle, and the one-month high of 100.61 sits 2.64 points above it. Over five sessions the contract rose 6.48 points from the 91.49 settle of 10/08, matching the provider's five-day change of plus 6.48.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 101.69 above and 72.05 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 3.19, 3.02, 4.43, 2.16, 4.75, 3.41, 2.09 and 4.74. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 0.01, minus 1.16, plus 3.21, plus 0.36, plus 1.89, plus 0.40, plus 0.95 and plus 2.88.
The retracement grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 95.36, 2.61 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 93.74. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.11 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 90.37. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars and the recorded 30-minute session.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Thursday. The 5-day average stands at 94.56, the 9-day at 92.38, the 20-day at 92.30, the 50-day at 88.60, the 100-day at 82.47 and the 200-day at 76.59.
The 97.97 settle sits 3.41 points above the 5-day average, 5.59 points above the 9-day, 5.67 points above the 20-day and 9.37 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 1.30 from Wednesday's 93.26, because the 10/08 settle of 91.49 left the window and was replaced by 97.97. The 20-day rose 4 cents from 92.26, because the 09/17 settle of 97.23 left that window, and the 50-day rose 50 cents from 88.10.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 92.30 against 88.60 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 86.14. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 76.34. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Friday: 92.75 for the 9-day, 92.18 for the 18-day and 90.94 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle, so these readings carry that caveat. The 9-day relative strength reads 69.93, the 14-day relative strength 64.37 and the 20-day relative strength 62.02.
The 9-day raw stochastic and the 14-day raw stochastic both read 96.95 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 85.12 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 75.13 percent, so %K sits above %D near the top of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 27.17 with the 9-day +DI at 27.00 and the 9-day -DI at 8.38; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 25.34 with the 14-day +DI at 25.44 and the 14-day -DI at 10.45, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 26.41 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 31.24 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 96 percent buy, up from 80 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as strong and direction as strongest. The snapshot history reads 32 percent buy a week ago and 100 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 100 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 75 percent buy and the long-horizon group 100 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.91 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.01 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.90 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.44, and the 20-day average true range is 3.84 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.18. Thursday's 4.74 point range was 1.18 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.91 points from the 97.97 settle frames Friday between 94.06 and 101.88. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 95.73 to 100.21, two spans 94.80 to 101.14 and three spans 94.09 to 101.85. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 97.97 settle, Thursday's 98.32 high is the first reference, followed by the published target price at 99.32 and Pivot R1 at 99.67. One standard deviation resistance at 100.21 and the one-month high at 100.61 come next, followed by two standard deviations resistance at 101.14 and Pivot R2 at 101.36. The 3-10 day crossover stall level at 101.63, the 52-week and 13-week high at 101.69 and three standard deviations resistance at 101.85 form the extended band, with Pivot R3 at 104.41 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 96.62, with the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 96.03 next and one standard deviation support at 95.73 beneath it. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 95.36 and Wednesday's 95.09 settle follow, then Pivot S1 at 94.93, the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 94.88 and two standard deviations support at 94.80. Three standard deviations support at 94.09, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 93.74 and Thursday's 93.58 low form the deeper band, with the 9-day average crossing price at 92.75, the 20-day settlement average at 92.30 and Pivot S2 at 91.88 the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The news feed carried at 8:24 AM ET that the United States told member nations of the International Energy Agency it was unhappy with the emergency oil release and suggested supplementing it with an extra 100 million barrels. At 9:40 AM ET the feed carried that the agency agreed to complete the release of the outstanding 100 million barrels and seeks to release 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible, and at 9:42 AM ET that the release announced in March is going to exceed 400 million barrels.
At 7:52 AM ET the feed carried the President's remark that he may support a federal diesel tax suspension. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than volumes measured for this review. Crude rose through the morning despite the stock-release headlines: the 9:30 AM ET bar closed at 95.88 and the 10:00 AM ET bar at 96.56.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The official weekly petroleum status report printed at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday. The news feed carried a crude draw of 8.557 million barrels against a forecast build of 0.15 million and a prior draw of 3.186 million, a gasoline build of 3.518 million barrels against a forecast draw of 0.911 million, a distillate draw of 2.527 million against a forecast draw of 1.72 million, and a Cushing build of 1.862 million barrels against 0.444 million the prior week.
The official crude draw was smaller than the industry estimate of 11.12 million barrels carried by the feed at 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, but both pointed the same way. Provider commentary said crude gains accelerated and gasoline fell after the crude draw and the gasoline build. The next official report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 8:51 AM ET a French foreign ministry statement that France is putting into action operational elements of an agreement to help protect Saudi oil facilities. At 10:04 AM ET it carried a renewed Houthi warning that Saudi airspace and airports are unsafe and witness reports of four booms near the presidential palace in Aden, and at 10:47 AM ET an Iranian media report that Yemen rejected a Saudi request for talks in Oman.
At 1:14 PM ET the feed carried a US statement that the civilian vessel M/V GFS Pride was hit by a projectile from Iran's revolutionary guard and that a civilian container vessel sank while being towed to shore. An energy-news article at 3:31 PM ET said Ukraine struck a major Russian oil refinery. After the settle, at 4:36 PM ET, the feed carried press reports that the Secretary of State spoke with Israel's Prime Minister. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. Provider commentary attributed Thursday's strength in part to Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, and cited investment-bank commentary estimating a geopolitical risk premium in the price.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The November heating oil contract settled at 4.8456 dollars a gallon, down 0.0818, and the November gasoline contract at 3.1802, down 0.0793 or 2.43 percent, per the news feed at 2:31 PM ET and the provider. On the settlement arithmetic the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 105.55 dollars a barrel against 111.86 on Wednesday, and the gasoline margin at 35.60 against 41.81.
Both margins narrowed because crude rose 2.88 while both products fell, consistent with the gasoline build in the official report. The November natural gas contract settled at 3.236, up 0.038, after a storage injection of 67 billion cubic feet against a forecast of 74 billion at 10:30 AM ET. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 102.00 in the provider's daily record, down 0.55 from Wednesday's 102.55, after trading as low as 101.88. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.04 and 5.11 percent and closed at 5.09 percent against 5.19 percent on Wednesday. Producer prices at 8:30 AM ET came in at 1.3 percent for the month against a 0.6 percent forecast and 6.3 percent for the year against 5.4 percent, per the news feed, while retail sales rose 0.8 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast.
Yields fell and the dollar eased despite the hotter producer-price print, as feed headlines described haven demand for bonds amid the selloff in artificial-intelligence shares. Brent's December contract settled at 105.92, down 0.13 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,744.06, up 0.33 percent, and gold's December contract settled at 4,170.1, up 1.51 percent. A weaker dollar is a supportive input for dollar-priced crude; the size of that effect is not measured here.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
No weekly positioning report was captured for this review, so no managed-money or commercial figure is asserted. Open interest on the November contract is shown at 113,474 for Wednesday, down from 140,264 on Tuesday; Thursday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Thursday's volume was 197,019 contracts against Wednesday's revised 226,764, while the December contract traded 232,666 contracts on Thursday with open interest of 302,291 for Wednesday.
The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, with first notice on 10/22/26, so roll activity into December continues; the chart's continuous NYMEX:CL1! series has already moved to the December contract, which is why every level in this review is read on the explicit November symbol. The November contract settled 1.47 above December, against 1.19 on Wednesday, so the front of the curve remained in backwardation and the spread widened.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in for this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread, the product margins and the open-interest record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET with the November contract quoted at 97.52 at 6:32 PM ET, 45 cents beneath the settle. The Bank of England governor is listed at 10:00 PM ET and a European Central Bank board member at 10:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled for 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Bias neutral to higher above the Pivot Point at 96.62, expected Globex band roughly 96.60 to 98.40 absent a headline shock.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)
Final euro-area consumer prices are listed at 5:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 96.40 to 98.60, with the 96.40 to 96.70 band the first meaningful support and Thursday's 98.32 high the first meaningful resistance.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, US Open / Pit Session)
Import prices for September print at 8:30 AM ET and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET, both as the calendar lists them, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.9 percent for monthly import prices and 0.4 percent for industrial production. Expected band roughly 95.70 to 99.70, with the published target price at 99.32 and Pivot R1 at 99.67 the first meaningful resistance above Thursday's high.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Friday, NYMEX Pit Close)
No crude-specific scheduled release falls in this window in the captured calendars. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET, and a Friday settle carries two days of headline exposure into the Sunday reopen. Expected band roughly 95.70 to 100.20.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Sunday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026, after two days of Gulf and Red Sea headline exposure. The November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, so liquidity continues to migrate to December. The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Friday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 96.40 to 99.70
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 95.70 to 100.20
High-range scenario: 94.10 to 101.90
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 95.73 and one standard deviation resistance at 100.21, with Gulf headlines and the dollar deciding the side. A dip toward the 96.40 to 96.70 band that holds above 95.73 is weighted above a break lower, because Thursday printed an outside day that settled at 92.6 percent of its range for a sixth consecutive higher settle, the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems and the composite rose to 96 percent buy with direction described as strongest.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a calming of the Saudi and Hormuz headlines, or a renewed rise in the dollar, that carries the contract through Pivot S1 at 94.93 toward Thursday's 93.58 low. Both raw stochastics sit at 96.95 percent, so an extended reading leaves room for a pullback before any extension.
7. Friday Economic Calendar
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday. A Federal Reserve bank president spoke at 4:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the feed carried at 5:15 PM ET commentary that she urged more tightening. The Bank of England governor is listed at 10:00 PM ET and a European Central Bank board member at 10:30 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled at 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.
On Friday, the Bank of Canada governor is listed at 12:15 AM ET and final euro-area consumer prices at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Import prices for September print at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, and industrial production at 9:15 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET.
Later in the window, the November contract expires on 10/20/26, per the provider, and the next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude on Friday is unscheduled Saudi, Red Sea and Hormuz headlines, with import prices at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, the main scheduled input through the dollar.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: Thursday printed an outside day that settled at 92.6 percent of its range for a sixth consecutive higher settle, the settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite rose to 96 percent buy with direction described as strongest; a dip into the Pivot Point at 96.62 offers a long with a defined risk point beneath one standard deviation support at 95.73. Both raw stochastics sit at 96.95 percent and the official report showed a gasoline build, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips are bought while supply headlines persist, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 96.40 to 96.70
Stop Loss: 95.60 (beneath one standard deviation support at 95.73)
Target 1 (T1): 97.50 (47 cents beneath Thursday's 97.97 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 98.45 (13 cents above Thursday's 98.32 high)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 99.40 (8 cents above the published target price at 99.32)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 95.73 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 96.40.
Macro override: A ceasefire or de-escalation headline around Saudi Arabia, Yemen or the Strait of Hormuz, or a firmer dollar after import prices, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a drop through the 95.60 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S1 at 94.93 and two standard deviations support at 94.80 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 3.91 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November WTI crude contract, the November ’26 contract (CLX26), prepared after Thursday's close on October 15, 2026 for the Friday, October 16, 2026 session. The chart's continuous symbol has rolled to the December contract, so every price here is the November contract's. Thursday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 104.41 less Pivot S3 at 90.19, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 101.36 less Pivot S2 at 91.88, divided by two, both return 4.74, and three times the 96.62 Pivot Point less the 97.97 settle gives 191.89, which the 98.32 high and 93.58 low reproduce at 191.90 to the published rounding. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Thursday bar and the 30-minute bars carry the same extremes. Those figures, the 46 30-minute bars from the 6:00 PM ET Wednesday reopen to the 4:30 PM ET Thursday bar and the review's statements are used to grade Thursday's card, which is graded as published. Every timed intraday statement rests on those bars, and no price move is tied to a specific headline.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 259-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. Wednesday's volume and open interest come from the provider's revised 10/14 row: volume now reads 226,764 against the 198,357 cited in Thursday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 113,474. Thursday's open interest had not been reported, and the December open-interest figure of 302,291 is Wednesday's. No weekly positioning report was captured and no dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the official inventory report, the Brent spread, the November to December spread, the product margins and the open-interest record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Thursday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,170.1 on Thursday, up 1.51 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
