Gold Futures 4,107.9: Short 4,145 to 4,155 Before PPI

1. Executive Summary

The December gold contract settled at 4,107.9 on Wednesday, down 69.4 points or 1.66 percent from Tuesday's settle of 4,177.3, after trading between 4,193.5 and 4,095.0, a 98.5 point daily range. The settle finished at 13.1 percent of the range, and the range was 1.24 times the published 14-day average daily range of 79.6 points. Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Tuesday and was the third consecutive lower settle. The 4,107.9 settle was the lowest since the 4,090.5 settle of 08/03, the 69.4 point decline the largest since the 152.8 point decline of 09/28, and the 98.5 point range the widest since the 106.6 point range of 10/07.

The September consumer price index printed at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar showing 0.6 percent for the month and 3.7 percent for the year against forecasts of 0.6 and 3.6 percent, and 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent for the core measure against 0.2 and 2.5 percent. In the 30-minute bars kept for the session the 8:30 AM ET bar opened at 4,179.6, traded down to 4,107.2 and closed at 4,119.9. The news feed carried at 8:31 AM ET to 8:34 AM ET that rate futures fell as traders added to bets on Federal Reserve increases, and at 9:05 AM ET that traders fully price two increases by the end of January. The dollar index closed at 102.55, up 0.37, after trading as high as 102.94.

December silver settled at 55.877, down 3.648 or 6.13 percent, so the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 73.52 from 70.18. The composite multi-indicator snapshot reads "80% SELL" with current strength "Average" and current direction "Strongest", against "64% SELL" in the prior session's snapshot.

The Thursday session opens with the settle 61.9 points beneath the 5-day settlement average and 129.9 points beneath the 20-day, and producer prices and retail sales print at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. The published 14-day average true range of 85.9 points is 2.09 percent of the settle. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 4,145 to 4,155 band, around the momentum projection level at 4,143.3 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,148.7, stopped at 4,172 above Pivot R1 at 4,169.3, with objectives at 4,128, 4,106 and an extended 4,084.

2. Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Wednesday session opened at 4,184.2 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 6.9 points above Tuesday's settle, marked a daily high of 4,193.5 and a daily low of 4,095.0, and settled at 4,107.9 at 1:30 PM ET. The 30-minute bars kept for the session place the session high of 4,193.5 in the 11:00 PM ET bar on Tuesday evening and the session low of 4,095.0 in the 12:00 PM ET bar. The 8:00 AM ET bar closed at 4,175.3, and the 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the inflation release, fell from a 4,179.6 open to a 4,107.2 low and closed at 4,119.9. The daily high and low are full Globex session extremes rather than extremes of the settlement window.

After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,127.3; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the provider's displayed day open, high and low of 4,128.3, 4,128.3 and 4,122.7 belong to the new session dated Thursday, not to Wednesday, and are not used as Wednesday's range.

The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 4,267.8 minus Pivot S3 at 3,972.3, divided by three, returns 98.5, and Pivot R2 at 4,230.6 minus Pivot S2 at 4,033.6, divided by two, returns the same 98.5. Three times the Pivot Point of 4,132.1 less the 4,107.9 settle gives a high plus low sum of 8,288.4, against 8,288.5 for the pair of 4,193.5 and 4,095.0, a 0.1 point difference that comes from the rounding of the published Pivot Point; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Wednesday daily bar and the extremes of the 30-minute bars kept for the session carry the same 4,193.5 high and 4,095.0 low.

2.2 Daily Structure

Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Tuesday: the 4,193.5 high sits 31.3 points beneath Tuesday's 4,224.8, and the 4,095.0 low sits 74.7 points beneath Tuesday's 4,169.7. The settle at 13.1 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 9.3 points above the 4,184.2 open and a lower shadow of 12.9 points beneath the settle on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 4,197.8, 4,170.7, 4,233.7, 4,242.3, 4,224.8 and 4,193.5, and the sequence of session lows reads 4,091.2, 4,128.1, 4,156.1, 4,178.1, 4,169.7 and 4,095.0. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 4,140.7, 4,157.0, 4,216.3, 4,190.6, 4,177.3 and 4,107.9.

Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 4,233.7 to 4,091.2, and Wednesday's 4,095.0 low held 3.8 points above that span's low. The one-month high of 4,439.8 sits 331.9 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 4,091.2 sits 16.7 points beneath it. Over five sessions the contract fell 32.8 points from the 4,140.7 settle of 10/07, matching the provider's five-day change of minus 32.8.

No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 4,755.0 above and 4,019.0 beneath. The 52-week low of 4,015.6 from 06/30/26 sits 92.3 points beneath the settle.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 48.5, 81.7, 106.6, 42.6, 77.6, 64.2, 55.1 and 98.5. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 5.5, plus 30.3, minus 46.4, plus 16.3, plus 59.3, minus 25.7, minus 13.3 and minus 69.4.

The retracement grid published for Thursday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,224.4, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,265.5 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,306.6, all above the settle. Beneath the settle, the one-month low of 4,091.2, the 13-week low of 4,019.0 and the 52-week low of 4,015.6 are the nearest published swing references. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars and the 30-minute bars kept for the session.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Wednesday. The 5-day average stands at 4,169.8, the 9-day at 4,166.2, the 20-day at 4,237.8, the 50-day at 4,379.5, the 100-day at 4,319.4 and the 200-day at 4,624.5.

The 4,107.9 settle sits beneath every one of them: 61.9 points beneath the 5-day, 58.3 beneath the 9-day, 129.9 beneath the 20-day, 271.6 beneath the 50-day, 211.5 beneath the 100-day and 516.6 beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell 6.6 points from Tuesday's 4,176.4, because the 10/07 settle of 4,140.7 left the window and was replaced by 4,107.9. The 20-day fell 14.0 points from 4,251.8, because the 09/16 settle of 4,387.5 left that window, and the 50-day fell 0.9 points from 4,380.4.

The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 4,237.8 against 4,379.5 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,474.0. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the older 50 settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 4,259.4. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Thursday: 4,166.7 for the 9-day, 4,208.7 for the 18-day and 4,367.8 for the 40-day.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Thursday session and read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen; the page can substitute the live Globex price for the settle, so these readings carry that caveat. The 9-day relative strength reads 31.59, the 14-day relative strength 34.90 and the 20-day relative strength 38.21.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 9.95 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 6.41 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 23.63 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 29.35 percent, so %K sits beneath %D in the lower part of the range.

The 9-day directional index ADX reads 24.91 with the 9-day +DI at 13.20 and the 9-day -DI at 25.81; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 20.15 with the 14-day +DI at 13.75 and the 14-day -DI at 23.79, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 14.41 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 18.94 percent.

The composite multi-indicator snapshot reads "80% SELL", with current strength "Average" and current direction "Strongest", and the composite indicator reads "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium-term group "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-term group "Average: HOLD". The snapshot history reads "64% SELL" yesterday, "80% SELL" last week and "24% SELL" last month.

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 85.9 points and the 14-day average daily range at 79.6 points; the 9-day average true range is 80.7 with a 9-day average daily range of 75.6, and the 20-day average true range is 90.2 with a 20-day average daily range of 80.8. Wednesday's 98.5 point range was 1.24 times the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 85.9 points from the 4,107.9 settle frames Thursday between 4,022.0 and 4,193.8. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 4,067.1 to 4,148.7, two spans 4,050.3 to 4,165.5 and three spans 4,037.3 to 4,178.5. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.

3. Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 4,107.9 settle, the Pivot Point at 4,132.1 comes first, followed by the momentum projection level at 4,143.3 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,148.7, which form the band that anchors the setup. The 9-day average stall level at 4,162.3, two standard deviations resistance at 4,165.5, the 9-day average crossing price at 4,166.7 and Pivot R1 at 4,169.3 form the next grouping. Tuesday's 4,177.3 settle and three standard deviations resistance at 4,178.5 come next, with Wednesday's 4,193.5 high above them. The 18-day average crossing price at 4,208.7, Pivot R2 at 4,230.6, the 20-day settlement average at 4,237.8 and Pivot R3 at 4,267.8 are the extended references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle, Wednesday's 4,095.0 low and the 4,091.2 one-month low come first. The 3-10 day crossover stall level at 4,086.9 and the published target price at 4,084.6 come next, followed by Pivot S1 at 4,070.8 and one standard deviation support at 4,067.1. Two standard deviations support at 4,050.3, three standard deviations support at 4,037.3 and Pivot S2 at 4,033.6 form the next grouping. The 13-week low of 4,019.0, the 52-week low of 4,015.6 and Pivot S3 at 3,972.3 follow.

4. Macro Drivers

4.1 Dollar and Real Yields

The dollar index closed at 102.55 in the provider's daily record, up 0.37 from Tuesday's 102.18, and its Wednesday range ran from 102.07 to 102.94. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.18 and 5.33 percent and closed at 5.19 percent against 5.21 percent on Tuesday, the thirty-year yield index closed at 5.53 percent against 5.56 percent, and the 13-week bill yield index rose to 4.09 percent from 4.05 percent after trading as high as 4.15 percent. On the measured closes gold fell on a day when the dollar and short-dated yields rose while longer yields closed slightly lower. No inflation-protected yield was captured, so the real-yield read here rests on nominal yields only. A news-feed headline at 2:00 PM ET said gold fell beneath 4,100 as the inflation report revived bets on an October increase.

4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy

The consumer price index for September printed at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar showing 3.7 percent for the year against a 3.6 percent forecast and 0.3 percent for the core month against 0.2 percent. The news feed carried at 8:42 AM ET to 8:45 AM ET a services measure excluding housing of 3.13 percent for the year against 3.02 percent previously, at 9:05 AM ET that traders fully price two increases by the end of January, and at 9:40 AM ET investment-bank commentary adding a December increase to its forecast. The central bank's regional survey of economic conditions, released at 2:00 PM ET as the calendar lists it, said two of the twelve districts reported moderate growth, most described little or no net change in employment and three noted intensifying input price pressures. At 2:36 PM ET a regional Federal Reserve president said the report was higher than he had hoped and that he did not want to project the October outcome, and at 3:09 PM ET to 3:20 PM ET another regional president called the report discouraging and said more bad months of inflation would be unacceptable. The next policy decision is listed for October 28 at 2:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.

4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop

The news feed carried at 9:33 AM ET an Iranian state media report of an explosion in Riyadh after a missile attack with reported damage to oil facilities, at 1:38 PM ET a Houthi statement of a ballistic missile attack on Riyadh's main airport, at 3:03 PM ET an Iranian media report that Yemeni forces targeted the Saudi energy company's distribution facilities in northern Jeddah, and at 3:24 PM ET a statement from Iran's revolutionary guard of a strong explosion in Jeddah. At 2:52 PM ET Iran's parliament speaker said, per the news feed, that a US deal cannot prevent another attack on Iran. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review; in this review's interpretation haven demand tied to these headlines did not offset the rate-driven selling on the measured settle.

4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)

No central-bank purchase data, Chinese import figure or fund-holdings series was captured on the feeds read for this review, so no structural-demand change is asserted. The gold fund traded 10,283,500 shares on Wednesday in the provider's daily record against 5,711,600 on Tuesday, which is a trading figure, not a holdings figure.

4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset

November WTI crude settled at 95.09, up 1.01 percent, and Brent's December contract at 106.06, up 0.35 percent. December silver settled at 55.877, down 3.648 or 6.13 percent, so the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 73.52 from 70.18, and December copper settled at 6.6605, down 0.0655. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,718.94, down 1.11 percent, and the volatility index closed at 16.87, up 1.60.

4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)

The positioning report as of October 6, 2026, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed money long at 127,101 contracts, down 4,610, against short at 16,114, up 4,721, a net long of 110,987. Commercials held 55,802 long against 300,329 short. Open interest on the December contract is shown at 320,519 for Tuesday, against 318,078 on Monday; Wednesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Wednesday's volume was 186,260 contracts against Tuesday's revised 124,779. The next positioning report covers the week to Tuesday, October 13.

5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)

The gold fund's options console was read at about 6:20 PM ET with a Date Updated stamp of 2026-10-14. It shows a previous-close field of 381.65 and a current-price field of 376.00, a change of minus 1.48 percent; the provider's daily record shows the fund closing at 375.99 against 381.67, a decline of 1.49 percent. The console row shows call gamma of minus 235.69 million against put gamma of 136.65 million, call volume of 132.44 thousand against put volume of 74.88 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.53. One-month implied volatility of 20.34 percent sits beneath one-month realised volatility of 20.86 percent, with an implied-volatility rank of 9.39 percent and a skew rank of 51.98 percent; the console's options implied move is 4.9, about 1.30 percent of the 375.99 close. In this review's interpretation, drawn from the gold fund proxy rather than from measured gold-futures dealer flow, negative call gamma on a fund that fell 1.49 percent describes options positioning that does not dampen moves; no level is drawn from it.

The desk note read for this review, the 5:20 PM ET Wednesday edition, does not discuss gold. The console's high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded, and no fund level is translated into a futures price.

The proxy caveat stands in any case: the gold fund is a proxy for the futures contract, used qualitatively only, and its levels are never translated into futures prices. Primary edge for gold is the dollar, yield and policy complex in section 4.

6. Forecast

6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET and the December contract was quoted at 4,126.5 on the provider's page at 6:24 PM ET, 18.6 points above the settle. Australian employment is listed at 8:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and a Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 10:55 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 4,145 to 4,155 band, expected Globex band roughly 4,095 to 4,150.

6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)

UK output data are listed at 2:00 AM ET and euro-area industrial production at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 4,085 to 4,155, with the 4,145 to 4,155 band the first meaningful resistance.

6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, US Open)

Producer prices and retail sales for September print at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, before this window opens, with the news-feed calendar listing 0.6 percent for monthly producer prices and 0.3 percent for retail sales. Weekly jobless claims are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Expected band roughly 4,050 to 4,170.

6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)

Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. A Federal Reserve bank president is listed at 4:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 4,040 to 4,175.

6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)

The Friday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. The Bank of England governor is listed at 10:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled for 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. Import prices are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the calendar lists them.

6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 4,067 to 4,149

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 4,050 to 4,166

High-range scenario: 4,022 to 4,194

6.7 Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between two standard deviations support at 4,050.3 and two standard deviations resistance at 4,165.5, with producer prices and the dollar deciding the side. A rally that fails beneath Pivot R1 at 4,169.3, after reaching the 4,145 to 4,155 band, is weighted above a sustained recovery, because the settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low and settled at 13.1 percent of its range, and the composite snapshot reads "80% SELL" with direction "Strongest". The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a soft producer-price print that reverses the dollar's gain, or a Gulf escalation that revives haven demand, that carries the contract through Pivot R1 at 4,169.3 toward Wednesday's 4,193.5 high.

7. Thursday Economic Calendar

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday. Australian employment is listed at 8:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A Federal Reserve vice chair speaks at 10:55 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.

On Thursday, UK output data are listed at 2:00 AM ET and euro-area industrial production at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Producer prices and retail sales for September print at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, with the news-feed calendar listing 0.6 percent for monthly producer prices and 0.3 percent for retail sales. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia and New York manufacturing surveys are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. A Federal Reserve bank president is listed at 4:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Federal Reserve Chair's discussion with the International Monetary Fund's managing director is scheduled at 11:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.

Later in the window, import prices are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, and industrial production for 9:15 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on gold on Thursday is the September producer price index at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, through its effect on the dollar and rate expectations.

8. Primary Trade Setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low for a third consecutive lower settle, and the composite snapshot reads "80% SELL" with direction "Strongest"; a rally into the 4,145 to 4,155 band of the momentum projection level at 4,143.3 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,148.7 offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1 at 4,169.3. The 14-day raw stochastic sits at 6.41 percent, the settle sits 16.7 points above the one-month low and producer prices can move the dollar in either direction, so the setup is an analyst judgment that the decline resumes from a rally rather than a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 4,145 to 4,155

Stop Loss: 4,172 (above Pivot R1 at 4,169.3 and the 9-day average crossing price at 4,166.7)

Target 1 (T1): 4,128 (4.1 beneath the Pivot Point at 4,132.1)

Target 2 (T2): 4,106 (1.9 beneath Wednesday's 4,107.9 settle)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 4,084 (0.6 beneath the published target price at 4,084.6)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 4,169.3 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,155.

Macro override: A soft producer-price print that reverses the dollar's gain, or a Saudi or Hormuz escalation that revives haven demand, would invalidate the short in real time. In that scenario a move through the 4,172 stop removes the setup, and Tuesday's 4,177.3 settle and Wednesday's 4,193.5 high become the references within one 14-day average true range of 85.9 points.