S&P Futures 7,816.25: Short 7,846 to 7,854 Below Pivot R1

Inside the 7:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening, the fourth half hour after the reopen, the December S&P 500 contract printed 7,858.25. Nothing later in Thursday's session traded higher. The low came in the afternoon. The review places the 7,783.00 low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. Only selected half-hour bars were preserved, so the path between those two prints is not on record.

December E-mini futures settled at 7,816.25, down 36.50 points or 0.46 percent from Wednesday's 7,852.75. The daily row spans 7,858.25 to 7,783.00, a 75.25 point range, 0.96 times the 14-day average daily range of 78.02 points. The settle finished at 44.2 percent of that range. Two lower settles now. Thursday printed a lower high and a lower low against Wednesday, and its 36.50 point decline was the largest since the 57.00 point drop of 09/28. The settle was the lowest since the 7,777.25 settle of 10/02. Semiconductors led the decline after a press report at 12:42 PM ET, per the news feed, that a leading artificial-intelligence developer's annualised revenue is about 20 billion dollars less than previously signalled. The cash index closed at 7,765.36, down 0.47 percent.

Thursday's 7,783.00 low ran through the long band and the stop level

In Thursday's outlook we set a long from 7,815 to 7,823. Its stop sat at 7,789, with targets at 7,849, 7,879 and an extended 7,909. Thursday's completed bar, from tonight's review and the provider's dated 2026-10-08 row, opened at 7,850.75 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 7,858.25 and a low of 7,783.00, and settled at 7,816.25. The two sources agree. The whole band traded. The open sat 27.75 points above its 7,823 top, and the low went 32.00 points beneath its 7,815 bottom. The 7,789 stop level traded too, with the low 6.00 points beneath it.

Then the settle came back. At 7,816.25 it finished inside the band, 1.25 points above its bottom and 6.75 beneath its top. Two of the targets never printed. The 7,879 and 7,909 levels sat 20.75 and 50.75 points above the 7,858.25 high. That miss needs no timing.

The first target is a matter of order. The opening half-hour bar from the 6:00 PM ET reopen on Wednesday traded between 7,850.50 and 7,855.50, above both the band and the 7,849 target, and the 7,858.25 high came inside the 7:30 PM ET bar that same evening. The review places the low inside the 1:00 PM ET bar and makes no claim about the path between selected bars. So the record cannot say when price first entered the band. It cannot say whether price reached 7,849 or higher after an entry either. No fill and no result is asserted.

One invalidation test held and one cannot be settled. The card named a settle beneath Pivot S2 at 7,782.25, and the 7,816.25 settle finished 34.00 points above it. The low itself stopped 0.75 points above that pivot. Its acceptance line needed two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 7,792.23. The low went 9.23 points beneath the line inside the 1:00 PM ET bar. The record holds no close for that bar or its neighbours, so a qualifying pair is not on record here.

Our ranges sat too high again. In Thursday's outlook we gave 7,800 to 7,900 as the most likely band. The settle finished inside it, but the low broke its bottom by 17.00 points, while the high stopped 41.75 points beneath its top. The low-range case of 7,825 to 7,880 missed by more. Its bottom sat 8.75 points above the settle and 42.00 above the low. The wider frames held. The high-range case of 7,776 to 7,930 and the one-range envelope of 7,775.59 to 7,929.91 contained the whole session, with the low 7.00 and 7.41 points above their bottoms.

The one-deviation band did not hold. The 7,783.00 low broke one standard deviation support at 7,792.23 by 9.23 points and stayed 15.84 above two deviation support at 7,767.16. Above, the high stopped 55.02 points beneath one deviation resistance at 7,913.27.

Two session bands can be checked. The first half-hour bar and the 7,858.25 high both came within the Globex window and inside the 7,825 to 7,880 Globex band, the high 21.75 points beneath its top. The 7,783.00 low came inside the 1:00 PM ET bar, within the afternoon window, and broke the 7,800 bottom of the 7,800 to 7,895 afternoon band by 17.00 points. London and the morning cannot be graded. The review records no bar from either window.

The weighted path missed its hold. Thursday's outlook weighted a hold above Pivot S1 at 7,817.50, with a pullback into the 7,815.75 to 7,817.50 band treated as a buying area. The low went 34.50 points beneath Pivot S1. The settle finished inside that small band, 1.25 points beneath the pivot. The alternative named a further rise in yields after the 1:00 PM ET thirty-year auction that takes the contract beneath 7,792.23 and toward Pivot S2 at 7,782.25. The price leg happened, with the low 0.75 points short of Pivot S2. The yield leg did not show in the closing figures: the ten-year yield index closed four basis points lower at 5.23 percent, and the positioning note said Treasuries rallied after a solid auction. The review does not time yields against the low, and no link is drawn here.

The macro override cannot be graded cleanly. It named a sharp rise in yields after the auction or an escalation in the Gulf. Yields closed lower. Crude rose 3.64 percent, which the review ties to Iran escalation reports, and the Iranian state media report on the Strait of Hormuz reached the news feed at 4:17 PM ET, after the cash close. There was no gap beneath the 7,789 stop at the reopen; the session opened at 7,850.75. We grade the card as written.

Lower on both ends. The 7,858.25 high sat 26.25 points beneath Wednesday's 7,884.50, and the 7,783.00 low sat 32.75 points beneath Wednesday's 7,815.75. Session highs over the last six sessions read 7,767.75, 7,810.25, 7,847.50, 7,897.50, 7,884.50 and 7,858.25. The lows read 7,672.75, 7,723.25, 7,760.25, 7,829.00, 7,815.75 and 7,783.00, and the settlements 7,724.00, 7,777.25, 7,826.25, 7,874.00, 7,852.75 and 7,816.25. The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 7,672.75 to 7,810.25. Thursday's low sat 27.25 points beneath that week's high, and the settle 6.00 points above it. This week has spanned 7,897.50 to 7,760.25 so far.

Late prints sat near the settle. The chart's 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settlement, closed at 7,822.50; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere here. The Friday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. The provider's day open, high and low of 7,820.50, 7,824.25 and 7,817.00, shown at the time of writing, belong to that new session and are not used for Thursday.

Pivot R1 at 7,855.33, the 7,846 to 7,854 band and the 7,819.17 pivot

The basis barely moved. Thursday's 7,816.25 settle less the 7,765.36 cash close measures 50.89 points, against 50.98 on Wednesday. Every cash equivalent in this article uses that 50.89 point offset. The positioning note uses its own fixed 52.45 offset, and its published futures pairs carry that figure. Its 7,770 modeled volatility threshold carries a source pair of 7,822.45, its 7,698 modeled gamma-flip level 7,750.45, its 7,900 call-side ceiling 7,952.45, its 7,500 put-side base 7,552.45 and its 8,000 gamma concentration 8,052.45. The cash index finished 32.43 points beneath its 7,797.79 high and 34.10 above its 7,731.26 low.

Resistance starts at the pivot. The Pivot Point at 7,819.17 (cash 7,768.28) sits 2.92 points above the settle, and 7,822.45, the source pair of the 7,770 threshold, 6.20 above it. The 5-day settlement average follows at 7,829.30 (cash 7,778.41), 13.05 points above the settle.

Then the band that anchors the setup. Thursday's 7,850.75 open, the 3-10 day average crossover stall price at 7,852.36, Wednesday's 7,852.75 settle and one standard deviation resistance at 7,853.12 (cash 7,802.23) all sit inside it. The band wraps four references. Its 7,854 top sits 0.88 points above the deviation line and 1.33 beneath Pivot R1 at 7,855.33 (cash 7,804.44). Thursday's 7,858.25 high (cash 7,807.36) sits 2.92 points above that pivot. The band's 7,846 bottom sits 16.70 points above the 5-day average.

The stop sits in the next group. Two standard deviations resistance at 7,868.39 (cash 7,817.50) is the settle invalidation line, 9.61 points beneath the 7,878 stop. The stop also sits 19.75 points above Thursday's high. Three standard deviations resistance at 7,880.11 (cash 7,829.22) sits 2.11 above the stop, and Wednesday's 7,884.50 high (cash 7,833.61), the 40-day average stall price at 7,889.25 (cash 7,838.36), the 7,893.27 top of the one-range frame and Pivot R2 at 7,894.42 (cash 7,843.53) stack above it within 14.31 points.

The old highs come last. The one-month high, Tuesday's 7,897.50 (cash 7,846.61), and the 7,905.00 52-week and 13-week high from 08/13/26 (cash 7,854.11) sit 7.50 points apart. The 52-week high sits 88.75 points above the settle. Pivot R3 at 7,930.58 (cash 7,879.69), the 7,952.45 ceiling pair (cash 7,900) and the 8,052.45 concentration pair (cash 8,000) are the extended references.

Support starts close. Wednesday's 7,815.75 low sits just under the settle, and the prior week's 7,810.25 high 6.00 points beneath it. Then a tight group. The 9-day average crossing price for Friday at 7,789.75 (cash 7,738.86), the 9-day average at 7,784.97, Thursday's 7,783.00 low (cash 7,732.11), Pivot S1 at 7,780.08 (cash 7,729.19) and one standard deviation support at 7,779.38 (cash 7,728.49) span 10.37 points. The low sits 2.92 points above Pivot S1.

The list thickens beneath. The 7,777.25 settle of 10/02, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 7,774.30 and the 18-day crossing price at 7,771.53 come next. The 50-day average at 7,765.43, two standard deviations support at 7,764.11 (cash 7,713.22), the 40-day crossing at 7,763.13, Monday's 7,760.25 low and the 20-day average at 7,759.60 follow. That group spans 5.83 points.

Then the model's line. Three standard deviations support at 7,752.39 (cash 7,701.50) sits 1.94 points above 7,750.45, the source pair of the 7,698 flip level. Pivot S2 at 7,743.92 (cash 7,693.03), the 7,739.23 bottom of the one-range frame and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 7,736.25 follow. Then the retracements. Further down sit the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 7,706.74, Pivot S3 at 7,704.83 (cash 7,653.94) and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 7,698.19. Last come the deep references. The 100-day average at 7,680.00, the prior week's 7,672.75 low, the 7,575.00 one-month low, the 7,552.45 put-side base pair (cash 7,500), the 7,386.00 13-week low and the 200-day average at 7,376.43 complete the list.

One average now sits above. The 5-day stands 13.05 points over the settle. The settle stands 31.28 points above the 9-day at 7,784.97, 56.65 above the 20-day at 7,759.60 and 50.83 above the 50-day at 7,765.43. The 100-day sits at 7,680.00, 136.26 points beneath, and the 200-day at 7,376.43, 439.82 beneath.

The averages still rose. The 5-day added 18.45 points from Wednesday's 7,810.85, because the 10/01 settle of 7,724.00 left the window and 7,816.25 replaced it. The 9-day rose 1.39 from 7,783.58 as the 09/25 settle of 7,803.75 left, and the 20-day rose 7.59 from 7,752.01 as the 09/10 settle of 7,664.50 left. The 50-day rose 8.02 from 7,757.41 as the 07/29 settle of 7,415.25 left. It sits 5.83 points above the 20-day, so the 30 older settlements inside the 50-day window averaged 7,769.31, higher than the most recent 20. For Friday, the averages would be crossed at 7,789.75 for the 9-day, 7,771.53 for the 18-day and 7,763.13 for the 40-day.

Momentum turned down from high readings. Relative strength reads 55.67 on the 9-day, 54.80 on the 14-day and 54.24 on the 20-day. The raw stochastic reads 63.85 percent on both the 9-day and the 14-day, with the 14-day %K at 78.51 percent beneath %D at 84.06 percent. Trend strength stays low. On the 9-day, positive direction at 21.70 leads negative at 19.94 with the index at 15.28, and on the 14-day 21.11 leads 20.69 with the index at 11.44. Historic volatility reads 7.77 percent on the 9-day and 9.71 percent on the 14-day. These readings are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so they may carry the live Globex price.

The composite multi-indicator read fell to 64 percent buy from 80 percent buy, with signal strength weak and direction weakest. It read 8 percent sell a week ago and 16 percent buy a month ago. The short group lags. The short-horizon group averages 40 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 75 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.

Ranges ran near their averages. The 14-day average true range stands at 77.02 points, 0.99 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 78.02; the 9-day figures are 77.28 and 77.08 and the 20-day figures 77.35 and 79.59. One 14-day average true range either side of the settle frames Friday between 7,739.23 and 7,893.27. The published deviation bands are narrower. Built from five settlements, one deviation spans 7,779.38 to 7,853.12, two 7,764.11 to 7,868.39 and three 7,752.39 to 7,880.11. They describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.

Zoom out. Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 58.50, 76.50, 95.00, 87.00, 87.25, 68.50, 68.75 and 75.25 points. Settlement changes over the same sessions read minus 14.75, minus 16.50, plus 8.50, plus 53.25, plus 49.00, plus 47.75, minus 21.25 and minus 36.50. So the two latest declines followed four consecutive gains. The grid published for Friday places the 38.2 percent line from the four-week high at 7,774.30, the 50 percent line of the four-week range at 7,736.25, the 38.2 percent line from the four-week low at 7,698.19 and the 38.2 percent line from the 13-week high at 7,706.74, all beneath the settle. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure rests on daily bars only. No prior-quarter high or low was captured either; the 13-week extremes of 7,905.00 and 7,386.00 stand in.

A chip selloff, a revenue report and Iran headlines after the close

Chips set the tone. The semiconductor index fell 3.39 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 1.39 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.10 percent to 51,231.64. The news feed carried the 12:42 PM ET press report that a leading artificial-intelligence developer's annualised revenue is about 20 billion dollars less than previously signalled. The positioning note said data-center related shares fell sharply, with declines of about 5 percent in several chip and infrastructure names and about 3 percent in the largest chipmaker.

The note saw a defensive rotation. The positioning note described a rotation from offensive to defensive sectors, with energy and consumer staples showing relative strength, and said one-month implied correlation fell below 8. The cash index closed at 7,765.36, down 36.41 points, after a session range of 7,731.26 to 7,797.79, per the provider's quote. The note put the day's range at 85 basis points.

Bonds rallied. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.23 percent, down four basis points, and the dollar index at 102.14, down 0.10 percent. A thirty-year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 5.618 percent with a bid-to-cover of 2.540, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The positioning note said Treasuries rallied after a solid auction. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand against a forecast of 200 thousand, per the news-feed calendar.

One Fed voice leaned higher. A Federal Reserve governor spoke on the economic outlook at 4:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Between 1:45 PM ET and 2:04 PM ET, per the news feed, a regional Federal Reserve president said more firming will be required and that rates ought to be going up in the next six to nine months.

Iran ran through the day. Per the news feed, the President said at 12:17 PM ET that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, a remark this article treats as reported commentary. The evening brought more. After the cash close, an Iranian state media report carried by the news feed at 4:17 PM ET attributed explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz to tankers striking mines. Press reports between 4:42 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET said the Pentagon had drawn up plans for three days of strikes on Iran and that three aircraft carriers would soon be in the region. These are statements carried by the news feed, not events confirmed for this session.

Two other headlines crossed. The news feed carried a Federal Reserve enforcement action against a large card issuer at 4:38 PM ET, and the largest handset maker's October 13 product launch announcement at 12:02 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Thursday evening or Friday.

Commodities rose. November crude settled at 91.49, up 3.64 percent, which the review ties to Iran escalation reports. December gold settled at 4,157.0, up 0.39 percent. The volatility index closed at 15.41, up 0.33, and the Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility gauge at 21.98.

Implied volatility barely moved. Per the positioning note, index fixed-strike implied volatility stayed flat in the low double digits despite the decline, with volatility sellers active again. The note put the volatility-of-volatility index at 88, up five points, possibly reflecting demand for volatility-index calls. Its implied one-day move is 0.53 percent, or about 41.16 points on the 7,765.36 cash close, and its implied five-day move 1.55 percent.

The index closed just under the line. The positioning note used here is the 5:11 PM ET edition for Thursday, and its reference column holds Wednesday's closes: its 7,801 cash reference equals Wednesday's 7,801.77 close. The note places the primary call-side ceiling at 7,900 in cash, the largest gamma concentration at 8,000, the modeled volatility threshold at 7,770, the modeled gamma-flip level at 7,698 and the primary put-side support base at 7,500. The 7,765.36 cash close sits 4.64 points beneath the threshold. It sits 67.36 above the flip level and 134.64 beneath the ceiling.

Dealer gamma stays positive. Gamma tilt reads 1.356 and gamma notional plus 1.227 billion dollars. A positioning console for the cash index, dated 2026-10-08 and read at about 6:31 PM ET, shows call gamma of 8.5 billion against put gamma of minus 2.7 billion, with 7.59 percent of gamma attributed to the nearest expiration, against 9 billion, minus 2.9 billion and 8.80 percent in Wednesday's read. In the review's interpretation a close just beneath the modeled threshold, with positive gamma tilt still in place, favours rallies that stall toward the 7,822.45 pair and Pivot R1 at 7,855.33 and argues against a trend day.

Then the note's own map. It lists resistance at 7,800, 7,830, 7,850 and 7,900 and support at 7,750 and 7,700, with its own pivot at 7,690 and key strikes at 8,000, 7,800, 7,000 and 7,700, all in cash. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.

The narrative fills in the day. The note said same-day positions of about 10 thousand contracts at the 7,835 to 7,840 and 7,725 to 7,720 strikes were opened around 10:30 AM ET, and that volatility sellers stepped in again. It said the S&P 500 hedging-flow measure finished at about minus 2 billion dollars of delta, driven mainly by same-day put buying, and the broader equities measure at about minus 3 billion, dominated by longer-dated call selling. The note read that as a risk-off session. It also said its implied one-day low at 7,735 held as the low of the day. The provider's cash low of 7,731.26 sits beneath that figure, so the statement is not repeated as fact.

Activity rose. Volume was 1,637,654 contracts on Thursday's dated row against 1,399,667 on Wednesday's revised row, an increase of 237,987. The open-interest column on the provider's settlement series lags one session: the 2026-10-08 row reads 1,889,967, the figure carried for Wednesday before revision, and the revised 2026-10-07 row now reads 1,892,317. No open-interest change is asserted for Thursday.

The trade map for Friday

The primary setup is a short from 7,846 to 7,854. The settle sits beneath the 5-day settlement average after a second lower settle, the cash close sits beneath the modeled volatility threshold at 7,770 in cash, and the composite fell to 64 percent buy with direction weakest. The band holds four references. One standard deviation resistance at 7,853.12, the 7,852.36 stall price, Wednesday's 7,852.75 settle and Thursday's 7,850.75 open all sit inside it, with Pivot R1 at 7,855.33 just above. The stop sits at 7,878, above two standard deviations resistance at 7,868.39 and Thursday's 7,858.25 high. The targets step down. First comes 7,822, 0.45 points beneath 7,822.45, the source's futures pair for the modeled volatility threshold, then 7,794, 4.25 above the 9-day average crossing price at 7,789.75, then an extended 7,766, 1.89 above two standard deviations support at 7,764.11. The settle still sits above the 9-day through 200-day averages and dealer gamma remains positive. So the review labels the setup an analyst judgment that rallies stall beneath Pivot R1, not a measured edge.

From the 7,850 midpoint the risk to the stop is 28 points, 36.4 percent of the 14-day average true range of 77.02. The targets sit 28, 56 and 84 points beneath that midpoint. Exact multiples of the risk. The settle sits 29.75 points beneath the bottom of the band and 37.75 beneath its top, so the setup needs a rally to engage. It even sits 5.75 points beneath the first target. A one-range frame from the settle spans 7,739.23 to 7,893.27. It holds the band, the stop and all three targets, with the stop 15.27 points inside its top and the extended 7,766 26.77 inside its bottom. The published one-deviation band runs 7,779.38 to 7,853.12. Its upper edge sits 0.88 points beneath the band top, and the extended target sits 13.38 points beneath its lower edge.

The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. None carries a calibration. The low-range case runs 7,790 to 7,845, the most likely 7,770 to 7,860 and the high-range case 7,739 to 7,893. Session by session the review expects roughly 7,790 to 7,840 through Globex, with a neutral to lower bias beneath the 7,819.17 Pivot Point, and 7,785 to 7,845 through London. The morning band is 7,775 to 7,860. The afternoon band is 7,775 to 7,855.

The night comes first. The contract reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday after the 4:17 PM ET Iranian state media report carried by the news feed and the 4:42 PM ET to 4:45 PM ET press reports on Pentagon strike plans, and it opened at 7,820.50, 4.25 points above the settle. Japanese household spending is listed at 7:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.

London brings one speaker. A European Central Bank governing council member is listed at 3:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The review sees a neutral to lower bias there, with the 7,846 to 7,854 band the first meaningful resistance above the 5-day average.

Then the North American morning. Canadian employment and the unemployment rate are listed at 8:30 AM ET, with forecasts of 5 thousand jobs and 6.5 percent, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A European Central Bank executive board member is listed at 9:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test after Thursday's chip-led decline.

The survey is the event. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey is listed at 10:00 AM ET, with forecasts of 47.6 for sentiment, 4.7 percent for one-year inflation expectations and 3.5 percent for five-year expectations, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. In the review's judgment it is the first-order scheduled event for the S&P 500 on Friday, with chip-sector follow-through and weekend Iran headlines the unscheduled influences.

The weekend closes the week. The cash close at 4:00 PM ET is the last before the weekend, and a regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 4:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. There is no Friday evening session. Globex trading resumes at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, so two days of weekend headline exposure separate Friday's close from the next open. Monday, October 12, is the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times, as the calendar lists it. A weekend gap above Pivot R1 at 7,855.33 or beneath Pivot S1 at 7,780.08 would reset the level map. Bank earnings begin on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, and the consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, both as the calendar lists them.

One path is weighted. In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 7,780.08 and Pivot R1 at 7,855.33. A rally toward the 7,846 to 7,854 band that fails beneath Pivot R1 is weighted above a sustained recovery. The reasons given are a settle beneath the 5-day average, a cash close beneath the modeled volatility threshold and a composite whose direction reads weakest. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a recovery in chip shares, or a fall in yields after the inflation-expectations survey, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, that lifts the contract through two standard deviations resistance at 7,868.39 toward Wednesday's 7,884.50 high.

Thursday's high, printed on Wednesday evening, sits 2.92 points above Friday's Pivot R1, and the short band tops out 1.33 points beneath that pivot.

The complete data picture

Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.

Sources and methodology

This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini S&P 500 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Thursday's close on October 8, 2026 for the Friday, October 9, 2026 session. Thursday's completed extremes are recovered from the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 7,930.58 less Pivot S3 at 7,704.83, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 7,894.42 less Pivot S2 at 7,743.92, divided by two, both return 75.25, and three times the 7,819.17 Pivot Point less the settle gives a high-plus-low sum of 15,641.26, 0.01 from the 15,641.25 of the solved pair of 7,858.25 and 7,783.00 because the published pivot is rounded; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. The provider's dated row agrees at 7,850.75, 7,858.25, 7,783.00 and 7,816.25, on volume of 1,637,654 contracts and open interest of 1,889,967. It is a second surface of the same vendor, so it confirms internal consistency and not the underlying quote. That row, the chart's first 30-minute bar of the session and the review's own statements are the only evidence used to grade Thursday's card. The review places the high and the low in two selected 30-minute bars; no claim is made about the path between them. Wednesday's row now reads volume of 1,399,667 and open interest of 1,892,317, revised figures that replace the 1,347,574 and 1,889,967 carried on Thursday's outlook; that post was not changed.

The contract domain was checked before any level was used: the explicit-month chart's completed Thursday bar equals the provider's settlement row, the chart's current Friday bar opened at 7,820.50, equal to the provider's day open, and the provider's published previous close of 7,816.25 equals the settlement. The Globex session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Thursday, so the overview page's day high, day low and open belong to the Friday session and are not used as Thursday's range. The moving averages were computed from the 259-row daily settlement series, which excludes the partial Friday row; the oscillators are cited as published for the Friday session. The positioning note used is the 5:11 PM ET edition for Thursday, October 8, and its cash levels are quoted as published. Its reference column is the prior session's close and its futures column a fixed 52.45 translation, so any cash equivalent given here uses the 50.89 basis measured this session, settlement against cash close. The cash-index console's current-price field of 7,771.75 is a post-close indicative quote, not the close, and its high and low volatility point fields are excluded as low-confidence; modeled thresholds are never called strikes. The note's implied one-day high and low pair is excluded, because the cash low traded beneath its stated low. The cash index extremes and the other cross-asset closes come from the provider's quote read at about 6:22 PM ET. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or press reports, and every Friday calendar entry carries that marking. Every catalyst whose release time had passed at the time of writing is recorded as completed.

Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the Nasdaq-100 contract's Thursday outlook covers the index that fell 1.39 percent in cash on Thursday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.

View pricing →