At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, December gold reached 4,211.2, 6.2 points inside 4,205 to 4,215, the short band we set for the session. That 30-minute bar closed on its low, at 4,193.1. No bar reached 4,215. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,161.6, and the contract settled at 4,160.1 at 1:30 PM ET, down 21.0 points or 0.50 percent from Friday's 4,181.1 and 24.9 beneath its own 4,185.0 open.
Headlines carried on the macro feed at 2:30 PM ET and 5:15 PM ET framed the day as gold pressured by higher Treasury yields as crude rose. November WTI crude settled at 103.66, up 2.22 percent. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.14 percent against 5.09 percent, and the dollar index rose 0.14 to 101.98. Tuesday's primary setup is a short from 4,175 to 4,185, a band that holds the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 and the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3. The settle sits 14.9 points beneath it.
December gold settled at 4,160.1, 15.5 points beneath the 4,175.6 Pivot Point and 35.6 beneath Pivot R1 at 4,195.7. It sits 0.8 above the 5-day average, 6.7 under the 9-day and 42.8 under the 20-day at 4,202.9. The longer averages sit higher. The primary setup is a short from 4,175 to 4,185, with the Pivot Point and the 18-day crossing price inside the band, stop 4,200 above Pivot R1, targets 4,160, 4,140 and an extended 4,120. The band sits above the market. The settle is 14.9 points beneath its bottom. Negative direction leads on both directional windows and the composite reads "48% SELL". Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, and gold settles at 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday.
Monday's 4,211.2 high reached the 4,205 to 4,215 short band and stopped 20.8 points beneath its stop
In Monday’s outlook we set a short from 4,205 to 4,215, stop 4,232, with targets at 4,188, 4,166 and an extended 4,144. Its status line put the contract at 4,181.1 at the Friday settle, 23.9 points beneath the band. Monday's bar, from the review and the dated 10/19 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 4,185.0 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 4,211.2 and a low of 4,155.6, and settled at 4,160.1. The band traded overnight. The high was not held.
The 30-minute bars fix the order. The reopen came in 3.0 points beneath the 4,188 first target, and the 6:00 PM ET bar traded down to 4,176.0 before it closed at 4,198.2. The 7:00 PM ET bar then reached 4,206.7, the first print inside the band. The 7:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,206.0. Then a dip. The 9:00 PM ET bar fell back to 4,185.6, 2.4 beneath the first target. Eleven bars reached 4,205 in all, from the 7:00 PM ET bar to the 3:30 AM ET bar.
The high came at 3:30 AM ET. That bar traded from 4,193.1 to 4,211.2, 6.2 points into the band and 3.8 beneath its top. No bar reached 4,215. The highest close all session was 4,207.3, in the 3:00 AM ET bar, so the card's acceptance test, two consecutive closes above 4,215, was never met. The 4,232 stop stayed 20.8 points above the high. The settle finished 82.5 beneath the card's invalidation line, a settle above Pivot R2 at 4,242.6. No fill and no result is asserted.
Then the slide. The first target printed again in the 5:30 AM ET bar, at 4,187.4. The second came in the 9:30 AM ET bar, which traded down to 4,161.6, 4.4 beneath 4,166, and closed at 4,174.2. The session low of 4,155.6 followed in the 1:00 PM ET bar. The extended 4,144 never traded; the low held 11.6 above it. The settle finished 27.9 beneath the first target and 5.9 beneath the second.
The path call held. Our Monday outlook weighted a hold between one standard deviation support at 4,148.1 and two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7. It also weighted a rally toward the band that fails beneath Friday's 4,220.4 high above a sustained break higher. The low held 7.5 points above the bottom of that range. The high stopped 16.5 beneath its top and 9.2 beneath Friday's high.
The range work held everywhere. The low-range case of 4,150 to 4,215 contained the whole session, with 5.6 points to spare at the bottom and 3.8 at the top. The most likely case of 4,135 to 4,230, the high-range case of 4,097 to 4,265 and the 4,097.3 to 4,264.9 average-true-range envelope held too. So did one deviation, 4,148.1 to 4,214.1. The session bands went four for four. Globex, 4,150 to 4,215: the bars from 6:00 PM ET to 3:00 AM ET ran 4,176.0 to 4,208.4. London, 4,145 to 4,220: 4,181.1 to 4,211.2. The morning, 4,135 to 4,230: 4,158.8 to 4,186.8. The afternoon, 4,135 to 4,230: 4,155.6 to 4,168.9.
No gap came at the reopen. The open printed 3.9 above Friday's settle. Later the low went 11.9 beneath Friday's 4,167.5 low and 3.3 through the card's Pivot S1 at 4,158.9, and it stopped 7.5 above one standard deviation support at 4,148.1. The macro override named a weekend Gulf escalation that revives haven demand, or a further fall in the dollar. The dollar index rose 0.14 instead. Gulf statements ran through the day on the news feed, statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review, and gold fell on the day despite them. The stop never traded. We grade the card as written.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-10-19 row of the provider's daily record reads 4,185.0, 4,211.2, 4,155.6 and 4,160.1 on 117,298 contracts, with open interest of 321,954. The review states the same figures. Friday's 2026-10-16 row was revised. It now carries 137,939 contracts, against the preliminary 135,074 our Monday outlook carried, and open interest of 320,941, up 724 from Thursday's 320,217.
The 4,175 to 4,185 band, the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 and the 18-day crossing at 4,180.3
Resistance starts at the settle. The 3-10 day crossover stall level at 4,161.4 sits 1.3 points above it. The 9-day settlement average at 4,166.8 and Friday's 4,167.5 low come next, then the 9-day crossing price at 4,170.0, 9.9 above the settle, and the published target price at 4,174.6, 0.4 beneath the band.
Then the band. The 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,175.1 sits 0.1 inside its bottom and the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 sits 0.6 inside. The 18-day crossing price at 4,180.3 sits 0.3 above the 4,180 midpoint and 4.7 beneath the top. Friday's 4,181.1 settle sits 3.9 beneath the top. Monday's 4,185.0 open marks the top itself. One standard deviation resistance at 4,189.9 sits 4.9 above it. Then the stop zone. The 3-10-16 day average convergence stall level at 4,195.5 and Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 sit 4.5 and 4.3 beneath the 4,200 stop. Two standard deviations resistance at 4,202.3 and the 20-day average at 4,202.9 sit just above it, by 2.3 and 2.9. The 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,208.7, Monday's 4,211.2 high and three standard deviations resistance at 4,211.8 follow. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,217.6 sits 57.5 above the settle, with Friday's 4,220.4 high and Pivot R2 at 4,231.2 beyond it. Pivot R3 at 4,251.3 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,256.6 come after. The rest is distant. It takes in the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,295.7, the 100-day at 4,306.9, the 40-day crossing at 4,330.9, the 50-day at 4,369.6, the 4,422.1 one-month high, the 200-day at 4,619.4 and the 4,755.0 13-week high.
The 52-week high is the outlier. At 5,781.8, the review carries it 28.05 percent from the settle, as the provider's overview displays it. That figure measures the settle beneath the high. From the settle up, the gap is 38.98 percent.
Support is thin near the settle. The 5-day average at 4,159.3 sits 0.8 beneath it and Monday's 4,155.6 low 4.5 beneath. A gap follows. The 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,141.5, the 9-day average stall level at 4,140.7 and Pivot S1 at 4,140.1 sit 18.6 to 20.0 points down. Those three sit within 1.4 points. One standard deviation support at 4,130.3, the momentum projection at 4,124.8, Thursday's 4,120.9 low from 10/15, Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 and two standard deviations support at 4,117.9 form the next band. Deeper still sit the published stall projection at 4,113.6, three standard deviations support at 4,108.4 and the 10/14 settle of 4,107.9. The one-month low at 4,091.2 and Pivot S3 at 4,084.5 are the extended references. The 13-week low of 4,044.0 and the 52-week low of 4,015.6 close the list.
One average sits beneath the settle. It is 0.8 points above the 5-day at 4,159.3. It is 6.7 beneath the 9-day at 4,166.8, 42.8 beneath the 20-day at 4,202.9, 209.5 beneath the 50-day at 4,369.6, 146.8 beneath the 100-day at 4,306.9 and 459.3 beneath the 200-day at 4,619.4. The 5-day fell 6.1 from 4,165.4 as the 10/12 settle of 4,190.6 left the window and Monday's 4,160.1 replaced it. The 20-day fell 11.2 from 4,214.1 as the 09/21 settle of 4,383.9 dropped out. The 50-day slipped 4.8 from 4,374.4. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,480.8, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,244.1 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,931.9. Tuesday's crossing prices are 4,170.0 for the 9-day, 4,180.3 for the 18-day and 4,330.9 for the 40-day.
Momentum sits in the lower half. Relative strength reads 42.41 on the 9-day, 41.61 on the 14-day and 42.51 on the 20-day. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 45.60 percent and the 14-day 41.06 percent. The 14-day %K at 43.26 percent sits above %D at 33.28 percent. Sellers lead on direction. On the 9-day, negative direction at 21.00 leads positive at 13.29 with the ADX at 24.45; on the 14-day, 21.05 leads 13.72 with the ADX at 20.45. Historic volatility reads 16.06 percent on the 9-day and 13.99 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings. The page was read at 6:26 PM ET, after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so they may include the first minutes of the Tuesday session.
The composite snapshot published for Tuesday reads "48% SELL", strength "Weak", direction "Average", composite indicator "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 80% SELL", the medium-term "Average: 25% SELL" and the long-term "Average: HOLD". History: "48% SELL" yesterday, "48% SELL" last week and "32% BUY" last month. The sell reading held for a week. A month ago it read buy.
Monday's range was narrow. Its 55.6 points were 0.79 times the 14-day average daily range of 70.8. The bar printed a lower high and a lower low against Friday, by 9.2 and 11.9 points. It closed 24.9 beneath its open. The settle at 8.1 percent of the range left an upper shadow of 26.2 points above the open and a lower shadow of 4.5 beneath the settle. The 21.0 point decline was the largest since the 69.4 point decline of 10/14, and the 4,160.1 settle the lowest since the 4,107.9 settle that day. The 4,155.6 low was the lowest since the 4,120.9 low of 10/15.
The 14-day average true range stands at 81.8 points, shown as 2.00 percent on the provider's page; against the 4,160.1 settle it computes to 1.97 percent. The 9-day figures are 75.9 and 70.0 and the 20-day 86.7 and 77.1. One average true range either side of the settle spans 4,078.3 to 4,241.9. The deviation bands are tighter. Built from five settlements, they run 4,130.3 to 4,189.9, 4,117.9 to 4,202.3 and 4,108.4 to 4,211.8. They describe settlement dispersion only. Daily ranges over eight sessions ran 42.6, 77.6, 64.2, 55.1, 98.5, 76.8, 52.9 and 55.6 points, and settlements ran 4,157.0, 4,216.3, 4,190.6, 4,177.3, 4,107.9, 4,170.1, 4,181.1 and 4,160.1. The one-month high of 4,422.1 sits 262.0 above the settle and the one-month low 68.9 beneath it. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes of 4,755.0 and 4,044.0 serve as the quarterly reference.
Crude, yields and a firmer dollar
Start with the headlines. At 2:30 PM ET the macro feed carried "Gold sags near $4,150 as Oil fuels US yields rebound". At 5:15 PM ET it carried "Gold stalls as high Oil prices lift US Treasury yields". Both are third-party headlines that frame the same channel; neither is a measurement made for this review.
Yields rose. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.09 and 5.15 percent and closed at 5.14 percent against 5.09 percent on Friday, and the thirty-year closed at 5.47 percent against 5.43 percent. No inflation-protected yield series was captured. Real yields are not measured here. The 13-week bill index closed at 4.07 percent, unchanged.
The dollar index closed at 101.98 in the provider's daily record, up 0.14 from Friday's 101.84, after trading between 101.77 and 102.08. Provider commentary offered two reasons. The commentary said political risk and unrest in France weighed on the euro, and that higher crude raised inflation expectations. Per that commentary, the dollar fell from its best level after the homebuilder sentiment index fell to a 14-year low. That index printed 29 at 10:00 AM ET against a 31 forecast, per the news-feed calendar. Canadian consumer prices printed at 8:30 AM ET at 3.1 percent year over year against a 3.2 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar.
The bars give the times. The contract drifted lower through the European morning. The 7:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,181.1 and closed at 4,181.3, and the 8:00 AM ET bar traded down to 4,178.4. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the Canadian release, traded between 4,179.0 and 4,185.4 and closed at 4,181.3. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,161.6 from 4,186.8 and closed at 4,174.2. The 10:00 AM ET bar, which contains the homebuilder release, closed at 4,166.4, and the 11:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,158.8. The 1:00 PM ET bar marked the 4,155.6 low and closed at 4,160.1. After the settlement the 2:00 PM ET bar closed at 4,165.4, the 4:00 PM ET bar at 4,157.3 and the 4:30 PM ET bar at 4,160.3; none of those later quotes is the settlement. No cause is assigned to those moves here.
The Fed is next week. The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, after a two-day meeting beginning October 27. Provider commentary carried a priced probability for a rate increase at that meeting, but the figure was cut off when it was read, so no probability is quoted here.
Gulf statements ran all day. At 6:38 AM ET the news feed carried a press report that a breakthrough aimed at de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran is expected this week. More followed at midday. At 11:55 AM ET and 12:44 PM ET the news feed carried Iranian statements on asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. At 12:32 PM ET and 12:35 PM ET the news feed carried Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy and airport targets. Then the naval claim. At 2:22 PM ET the news feed carried an Iranian naval claim of a US attack on a naval base. At 2:29 PM ET it carried a US official's statement, via press reports, that the claim was inaccurate. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review, and gold fell on the day despite them. No causal link to the gold price is asserted.
Structural demand came up in commentary. From 9:54 AM ET to 9:56 AM ET the news feed carried investment-bank commentary estimating central bank gold purchases of 79 tonnes in August, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, with China the largest identifiable buyer at 25 tonnes. That commentary described central bank demand as a structural support. No fund holdings series was captured. China's loan prime rates are listed at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Energy ran hot again. November WTI crude settled at 103.66, up 2.25 or 2.22 percent, while December WTI settled at 98.54, down 0.48, and Brent's December contract at 109.55, down 0.31. Stocks rose. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,690.73, up 0.41 percent, and the volatility index closed at 18.44 against 19.99 on Friday. Silver held. December silver settled at 57.273, down 0.032, and December copper at 6.5755, little changed. The gold-to-silver ratio eased to 72.64 from 72.96 on Friday.
Positioning data are thin. No weekly positioning report was captured, so no managed-money or commercial figure is asserted. Open interest stood at 320,941 on Friday and 321,954 on Monday in the provider's settlement record, a rise of 1,013 contracts on the down day. Monday's volume was 117,298 contracts against a revised 137,939 on Friday.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:20 PM ET, with a Date Updated stamp of 2026-10-19. It shows a previous-close field of 382.07 and a current-price field of 379.57, a change of minus 0.65 percent; the fund's own closes were not read from a second source, so these fields are reported as displayed. The console row shows call gamma of minus 489.68 million against put gamma of minus 416.85 million, modeled figures on a proxy. Both gamma figures are negative. The console's call volume was 133.11 thousand against put volume of 144.96 thousand, an observation only, and the put-to-call open-interest ratio reads 0.5. One-month implied volatility of 20.82 percent sits beneath one-month realised volatility of 21.37 percent, with an implied-volatility rank of 11.32 percent and a skew rank of 52.80 percent. The console's options implied move is 5.02, about 1.32 percent of the 379.57 price field.
The console reports volume and modeled gamma without trade side or customer positioning, so these fields are recorded as observations only; no directional read and no level is drawn from them. Modeled gamma is a non-directional lens on a proxy, and it sets no level here. The fund is a proxy used qualitatively. Its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price.
The desk note, the 5:21 PM ET Monday edition, does not discuss gold. In the review's judgment the primary edge for gold is the dollar, yield and policy complex.
The trade map for Tuesday
The primary setup is a short. Its band runs 4,175 to 4,185, around the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 and the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3. Monday printed a lower high and a lower low and settled at 8.1 percent of its range. The settle sits beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages, and negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. The composite reads "48% SELL" with the composite indicator at "SELL". Both anchors sit inside the band. The Pivot Point sits 0.6 above its bottom, and the 18-day crossing price 0.3 above its 4,180 midpoint. Risk sits above Pivot R1. The 4,200 stop clears Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 by 4.3 and the 3-10-16 day stall level at 4,195.5 by 4.5, while two standard deviations resistance at 4,202.3 and the 20-day average at 4,202.9 sit 2.3 and 2.9 above it. Targets step down to 4,160, 0.1 beneath Monday's 4,160.1 settle, then 4,140, 0.1 beneath Pivot S1 at 4,140.1, and an extended 4,120, at Pivot S2 at 4,120.0. The review flags the evidence against it. The settle sits just above the 5-day average, and Gulf headlines remain active. So the review calls this an analyst judgment that rallies stall beneath the 18-day crossing price, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 4,180 midpoint the risk to the stop is 20 points, 24.4 percent of the 14-day average true range of 81.8. The targets sit 20, 40 and 60 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. Monday's settle sits 14.9 to 24.9 points beneath the band. For scale, Monday's own high printed 11.2 above the stop, at 3:30 AM ET.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 4,135 to 4,185, the most likely 4,120 to 4,200 and the high-range case 4,085 to 4,232. Session bands come next. Through Globex, from the 6:00 PM ET Monday reopen to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, the review expects roughly 4,135 to 4,185, with the bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 4,175.6. A move above the Pivot Point opens the 4,180.3 to 4,189.9 band. A move beneath Monday's 4,155.6 low opens Pivot S1 at 4,140.1. London follows at roughly 4,130 to 4,190, neutral to lower, with the 4,175 to 4,185 band the first meaningful resistance and Pivot S1 the first meaningful support beneath Monday's low. The morning band runs 4,120 to 4,200, with Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 above and Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 beneath. The afternoon runs 4,115 to 4,205.
The calendar starts Monday night. The President is listed to speak at 7:00 PM ET and China's loan prime rates at 9:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Europe comes overnight. On Tuesday the UK labour report and German producer prices are listed at 2:00 AM ET and the German sentiment survey at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. US data lead at 8:30 AM ET. Housing starts and building permits print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists them, with forecasts of 1.3 million and 1.385 million on the news-feed calendar. Pending home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after the cash equity open at 9:30 AM ET. Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. A large streaming-video company reports at 4:01 PM ET that day, as the calendar lists it, after the gold settlement. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday. The UK consumer price report is listed at 2:00 AM ET on Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 and Pivot R1 at 4,195.7. A rally toward the 4,175 to 4,185 band that stalls beneath the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,189.9 is weighted above a sustained recovery. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on gold on Tuesday is the yield and dollar response to crude, with the 8:30 AM ET housing data the first scheduled test. The alternative is a fall in yields or the dollar, or a Gulf escalation that revives haven demand, carrying the contract back above Pivot R1 toward Monday's 4,211.2 high. The settle still sits 0.8 points above the 5-day average, and open interest rose on the decline. Both keep that alternative live.
Monday's high stopped 3.8 points beneath the top of one short band, and its settle finished 14.9 beneath the bottom of the next.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 4,160.1 on Monday, down 21.0 or 0.50 percent from Friday's settle of 4,181.1, after trading between 4,211.2 and 4,155.6, a 55.6 point daily range. The settle finished at 8.1 percent of the range, and the 55.6 point range was 0.79 times the published 14-day average daily range of 70.8 points. Monday printed a lower high and a lower low against Friday, and the settle was the lowest since the 4,107.9 settle of 10/14.
The session high of 4,211.2 printed in the 3:30 AM ET bar of the 30-minute bars kept for the session, and the contract then drifted lower through the European morning. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,161.6 from 4,186.8 and closed at 4,174.2, and the session low of 4,155.6 printed in the 1:00 PM ET bar, which closed at 4,160.1. Headlines carried on the macro feed at 2:30 PM ET and 5:15 PM ET framed the day as gold pressured by higher Treasury yields as crude rose.
The dollar index closed at 101.98, up 0.14 from Friday, and the ten-year yield index closed at 5.14 percent against 5.09 percent. November WTI crude settled at 103.66, up 2.22 percent, and the S&P 500 cash index rose 0.41 percent. December silver settled at 57.273, little changed, so the gold to silver ratio eased to 72.64 from 72.96 on Friday.
The published 14-day average true range is 81.8 points, shown as 2.00 percent on the provider's page (81.8 over the 4,160.1 settle computes to 1.97 percent). The composite snapshot reads "48% SELL", unchanged from the prior session's snapshot. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 4,175 to 4,185 band around the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 and the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3, stopped at 4,200 above Pivot R1 at 4,195.7, with objectives at 4,160, 4,140 and an extended 4,120.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 4,185.0 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 3.9 points above Friday's settle, marked a daily high of 4,211.2 and a daily low of 4,155.6, and settled at 4,160.1 at the 1:30 PM ET settlement. The 30-minute bars kept for the session place the session high of 4,211.2 in the 3:30 AM ET bar, which closed at 4,193.1, and the session low of 4,155.6 in the 1:00 PM ET bar, which closed at 4,160.1.
The Sunday 6:00 PM ET bar traded between 4,176.0 and 4,198.9 and closed at 4,198.2, and the contract held between 4,185.6 and 4,208.4 through the Asian hours, with the 7:30 PM ET bar closing at 4,206.0 and the 11:30 PM ET bar at 4,201.1. The 3:00 AM ET bar closed at 4,207.3 and the 3:30 AM ET bar marked the high before closing at 4,193.1. The 7:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,181.1 and closed at 4,181.3, and the 8:00 AM ET bar traded down to 4,178.4.
The 9:30 AM ET bar traded between 4,161.6 and 4,186.8 and closed at 4,174.2, the 10:00 AM ET bar closed at 4,166.4, the 11:30 AM ET bar traded down to 4,158.8 and the 1:00 PM ET bar marked the 4,155.6 low. After the settlement the 2:00 PM ET bar closed at 4,165.4, the 4:00 PM ET bar at 4,157.3 and the 4:30 PM ET bar at 4,160.3; those post-settlement quotes are not used as the settlement anywhere in this review.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday for the Tuesday session, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview, 4,162.4, 4,163.3 and 4,160.5, belong to the new Tuesday session even though the page header carries Monday's date, and they are not Monday's range. Monday's completed-session extremes are taken from the settlement row and the 30-minute bars kept for the session, and they are also the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 4,251.3 minus Pivot S3 at 4,084.5, divided by three, returns 55.6, and Pivot R2 at 4,231.2 minus Pivot S2 at 4,120.0, divided by two, returns the same 55.6. Three times the Pivot Point of 4,175.6 less the 4,160.1 settle gives a high plus low sum of 8,366.7, which the pair of 4,211.2 and 4,155.6 reproduces to the published rounding at 8,366.8, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar for the continuous contract and the extremes of the 30-minute bars kept for the session carry the same 4,211.2 high and 4,155.6 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a lower high and a lower low against Friday: the 4,211.2 high sits 9.2 points beneath Friday's 4,220.4, and the 4,155.6 low sits 11.9 points beneath Friday's 4,167.5. The settle beneath the 4,185.0 open leaves a body of 24.9 points, an upper shadow of 26.2 points above the open and a lower shadow of 4.5 points beneath the settle.
Settlements over the last eight sessions ran 4,157.0, 4,216.3, 4,190.6, 4,177.3, 4,107.9, 4,170.1, 4,181.1 and 4,160.1. The 21.0 point decline was the largest since the 69.4 point decline of 10/14, and the settle the lowest since the 4,107.9 settle of 10/14. The low of 4,155.6 is the lowest since the 4,120.9 low of 10/15.
The one-month high of 4,422.1 and the 13-week high of 4,755.0 sit above, and the one-month low of 4,091.2, the 13-week low of 4,044.0 and the 52-week low of 4,015.6 sit beneath. The 52-week high of 5,781.8 sits 28.05 percent above the settle on the provider's overview. (That displayed figure measures the settle beneath the high; measured up from the settle, the high sits 38.98 percent above it.) No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 42.6, 77.6, 64.2, 55.1, 98.5, 76.8, 52.9 and 55.6. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 16.3, plus 59.3, minus 25.7, minus 13.3, minus 69.4, plus 62.2, plus 11.0 and minus 21.0.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,217.6, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,256.6 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,295.7. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars and the 30-minute bars kept for the session.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Monday; the partial Tuesday row returned after the 6:00 PM ET reopen was dropped before counting. The 5-day average stands at 4,159.3, the 9-day at 4,166.8, the 20-day at 4,202.9, the 50-day at 4,369.6, the 100-day at 4,306.9 and the 200-day at 4,619.4.
The 4,160.1 settle sits 0.8 points above the 5-day average and beneath the rest: 6.7 points beneath the 9-day, 42.8 points beneath the 20-day, 146.8 points beneath the 100-day, 209.5 points beneath the 50-day and 459.3 points beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell 6.1 from Friday's 4,165.4, because the 10/12 settle of 4,190.6 left the window and was replaced by 4,160.1. The 20-day fell 11.2 from 4,214.1, because the 09/21 settle of 4,383.9 left that window.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 4,202.9 against 4,369.6 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,480.8. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 4,244.1, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,931.9. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 4,170.0 for the 9-day, 4,180.3 for the 18-day and 4,330.9 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:26 PM ET after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so they may include the first minutes of the Tuesday session rather than the settle alone; they are the provider's published readings, not computations made for this review. The 9-day relative strength reads 42.41, the 14-day relative strength 41.61 and the 20-day relative strength 42.51.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 45.60 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 41.06 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 43.26 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 33.28 percent, so %K sits above %D in the lower half of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 24.45 with the 9-day +DI at 13.29 and the 9-day -DI at 21.00; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 20.45 with the 14-day +DI at 13.72 and the 14-day -DI at 21.05, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 16.06 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 13.99 percent.
The composite multi-indicator snapshot published for the Tuesday session, quoted verbatim, reads Overall Average "48% SELL", Current Strength "Weak" and Current Direction "Average", with the Composite Indicator at "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 80% SELL", the medium-term group "Average: 25% SELL" and the long-term group "Average: HOLD". The snapshot comparisons read Yesterday "48% SELL", Last Week "48% SELL" and Last Month "32% BUY", so the sell reading is unchanged from the prior session and from a week ago, against a buy reading a month ago.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 81.8 points and the 14-day average daily range at 70.8 points; the 9-day average true range is 75.9 with a 9-day average daily range of 70.0, and the 20-day average true range is 86.7 with a 20-day average daily range of 77.1. Monday's 55.6 point range was 0.79 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 81.8 points from the 4,160.1 settle frames Tuesday between 4,078.3 and 4,241.9. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 4,130.3 to 4,189.9, two spans 4,117.9 to 4,202.3 and three spans 4,108.4 to 4,211.8. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 4,160.1 settle, the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 4,161.4 sits immediately overhead, followed by the 9-day average crossing price at 4,170.0, the published target price at 4,174.6, the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,175.1 and the Pivot Point at 4,175.6. The 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3, Friday's 4,181.1 settle and one standard deviation resistance at 4,189.9 follow, then the 3-10-16 day average convergence stall level at 4,195.5 and Pivot R1 at 4,195.7. Two standard deviations resistance at 4,202.3, the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,208.7, Monday's 4,211.2 high and three standard deviations resistance at 4,211.8 form the next band, with the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,217.6 and Pivot R2 at 4,231.2 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits Monday's 4,155.6 low, then the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,141.5, the 9-day average stall level at 4,140.7 and Pivot S1 at 4,140.1. One standard deviation support at 4,130.3, the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,124.8, Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 and two standard deviations support at 4,117.9 follow. The published stall projection at 4,113.6, three standard deviations support at 4,108.4 and the 10/14 settle of 4,107.9 form the deeper band, with the one-month low at 4,091.2 and Pivot S3 at 4,084.5 the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index closed at 101.98 in the provider's daily record, up 0.14 from Friday's 101.84, after trading between 101.77 and 102.08. Provider commentary said political risk and unrest in France weighed on the euro, that higher crude raised inflation expectations, and that the dollar fell from its best level after the homebuilder sentiment index fell to a 14-year low. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.09 and 5.15 percent and closed at 5.14 percent against 5.09 percent on Friday, and the thirty-year index closed at 5.47 percent against 5.43 percent.
No inflation-protected yield series was captured for this review, so the move in real yields is not measured here. Headlines carried on the macro feed at 2:30 PM ET, "Gold sags near $4,150 as Oil fuels US yields rebound", and at 5:15 PM ET, "Gold stalls as high Oil prices lift US Treasury yields", frame the same channel; they are third-party headlines, not measurements made for this review.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, after a two-day meeting beginning October 27. Provider commentary carried a priced probability for a rate increase at that meeting, but the figure was cut off when it was read, so no probability is quoted here. The 13-week Treasury bill index closed at 4.07 percent, unchanged.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried a steady flow of Gulf headlines on Monday: Iranian statements at 11:55 AM ET and 12:44 PM ET on asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi claims at 12:32 PM ET and 12:35 PM ET of attacks on Saudi energy and airport targets, an Iranian naval claim at 2:22 PM ET of a US attack on a naval base and a US official's statement at 2:29 PM ET, via press reports, that the claim was inaccurate. A press report carried at 6:38 AM ET said a breakthrough aimed at de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran is expected this week. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review, and gold fell on the day despite them.
4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)
The news feed carried investment-bank commentary at 9:54 AM ET to 9:56 AM ET estimating central bank gold purchases of 79 tonnes in August, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, with China the largest identifiable buyer at 25 tonnes, and describing central bank demand as a structural support. China's loan prime rates are listed at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. No fund holdings series was captured for this review.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
November WTI crude settled at 103.66, up 2.25 or 2.22 percent, and December WTI at 98.54, down 0.48, while Brent's December contract settled at 109.55, down 0.31. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,690.73, up 0.41 percent, and the volatility index closed at 18.44 against 19.99 on Friday. December silver settled at 57.273, down 0.032, and December copper at 6.5755, little changed, so the gold to silver ratio stands at 72.64 against 72.96 on Friday.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)
No weekly positioning report was captured for this review, so no managed-money or commercial figure is asserted. Open interest on the December contract stood at 320,941 for Friday and 321,954 for Monday in the provider's settlement record, a rise of 1,013 contracts on the down day, and Monday's volume was 117,298 contracts against 137,939 on Friday.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at 6:20 PM ET with a Date Updated stamp of 2026-10-19. It shows a previous-close field of 382.07 and a current-price field of 379.57, a change of minus 0.65 percent; the fund's own closes were not read from a second source for this review, so these fields are reported as displayed. The console row shows modeled call gamma of minus 489.68 million against put gamma of minus 416.85 million, call volume of 133.11 thousand against put volume of 144.96 thousand, and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5.
One-month implied volatility of 20.82 percent sits beneath one-month realised volatility of 21.37 percent, with an implied-volatility rank of 11.32 percent and a skew rank of 52.80 percent; the console's options implied move is 5.02, about 1.32 percent of the 379.57 price field. The console reports volume and modeled gamma without trade side or customer positioning, so these fields are recorded as observations only; no directional read and no level is drawn from them.
The desk note read for this review, the 5:21 PM ET Monday edition, does not discuss gold. No fund level is translated into a futures price, and the console's high and low volatility point fields were not used.
The proxy caveat stands in any case: the gold fund is a proxy for the futures contract, used qualitatively only, and its levels are never translated into futures prices. Primary edge for gold is the dollar, yield and policy complex in section 4.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday. The President is listed to speak at 7:00 PM ET and China's loan prime rates at 9:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A move above the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 opens the 4,180.3 to 4,189.9 band, while a move beneath Monday's 4,155.6 low opens Pivot S1 at 4,140.1. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 4,175.6, expected Globex band roughly 4,135 to 4,185.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
The UK labour report and German producer prices are listed at 2:00 AM ET and the German sentiment survey at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 4,130 to 4,190, with the 4,175 to 4,185 band the first meaningful resistance and Pivot S1 at 4,140.1 the first meaningful support beneath Monday's low.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, US Open)
Housing starts and building permits print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and pending home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, around the cash equity open at 9:30 AM ET. Expected band roughly 4,120 to 4,200, with Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 above and Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 beneath.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Tuesday)
Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. A large streaming-video company reports at 4:01 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists it, after the gold settlement. Expected band roughly 4,115 to 4,205.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday. The UK consumer price report is listed at 2:00 AM ET on Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 4,135 to 4,185
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 4,120 to 4,200
High-range scenario: 4,085 to 4,232
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 4,120.0 and Pivot R1 at 4,195.7, with a rally toward the 4,175 to 4,185 band that stalls beneath the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,189.9 weighted above a sustained recovery. Monday printed a lower high and a lower low and settled at 8.1 percent of its range, the settle sits beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages, negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the composite snapshot reads "48% SELL".
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a fall in yields or the dollar, or a Gulf escalation that revives haven demand, carrying the contract back above Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 toward Monday's 4,211.2 high. The settle still sits 0.8 points above the 5-day average and open interest rose on the decline, which keeps that alternative live.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. Canadian consumer prices printed at 8:30 AM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar, at 3.1 percent year over year against a 3.2 percent forecast, and the homebuilder sentiment index printed at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar, at 29 against a 31 forecast. Gold settled at 1:30 PM ET.
On Monday evening the President is listed to speak at 7:00 PM ET and China's loan prime rates at 9:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. On Tuesday the UK labour report and German producer prices are listed at 2:00 AM ET and the German sentiment survey at 5:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Housing starts and building permits print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with forecasts of 1.3 million and 1.385 million on the news-feed calendar. Pending home sales are listed at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET.
Later in the window, a large streaming-video company reports at 4:01 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on gold on Tuesday is the yield and dollar response to crude, with the 8:30 AM ET housing data the first scheduled test.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: Monday printed a lower high and a lower low and settled at 8.1 percent of its range, the settle sits beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite snapshot reads "48% SELL" with the Composite Indicator at "SELL"; a rally toward the Pivot Point at 4,175.6 and the 18-day average crossing price at 4,180.3 offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1 at 4,195.7. The settle sits just above the 5-day average and Gulf headlines remain active, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rallies stall beneath the 18-day crossing price rather than a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 4,175 to 4,185
Stop Loss: 4,200 (above Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 and the 3-10-16 day average convergence stall level at 4,195.5)
Target 1 (T1): 4,160 (0.1 beneath Monday's 4,160.1 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 4,140 (0.1 beneath Pivot S1 at 4,140.1)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 4,120 (at Pivot S2 at 4,120.0)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 4,195.7 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,185.
Macro override: A fall in yields or the dollar, or a Gulf escalation that revives haven demand, would invalidate the short in real time. In that scenario a move through the 4,200 stop removes the setup, and Monday's 4,211.2 high and Pivot R2 at 4,231.2 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 81.8 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Monday's close on October 19, 2026 for the Tuesday, October 20, 2026 session. Monday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Tuesday: Pivot R3 at 4,251.3 less Pivot S3 at 4,084.5, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,231.2 less Pivot S2 at 4,120.0, divided by two, both return 55.6, and three times the 4,175.6 Pivot Point less the settle gives 8,366.7, against 8,366.8 for the 4,211.2 high plus the 4,155.6 low, a match to the published rounding. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Monday bar and the 30-minute bars kept for the session carry the same extremes, and only those figures, the dated 2026-10-19 row of the provider's daily record and the review's statements are used to grade Monday's card. Every timed statement about the session rests on those 30-minute bars, timed by each bar's opening in ET. Monday's session opened at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, so the open, high and low displayed on the provider's overview after that, 4,162.4, 4,163.3 and 4,160.5, belong to the Tuesday session and are not used as Monday's range.
Friday's 2026-10-16 row has been revised since our Monday outlook: volume now reads 137,939 contracts against the preliminary 135,074, and open interest is now reported at 320,941; Friday's prices are unchanged. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 259 completed sessions through Monday; the oscillators are cited as published, read at 6:26 PM ET after the reopen, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The provider's page shows the 14-day average true range as 2.00 percent; 81.8 over the 4,160.1 settle computes to 1.97 percent. The review places the 52-week high of 5,781.8 28.05 percent above the settle, as the provider's overview displays it; that figure measures the settle beneath the high, and the high sits 38.98 percent above the settle. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its console carries no trade side, its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The percent changes for the dollar index, silver, copper, December WTI and Brent are computed from the stated closes and changes. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Monday outlook covers the November WTI contract, which settled at 103.66 on Monday, up 2.22 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
