At 10:00 AM ET on Friday, December gold reached 4,220.4, 5.4 points inside 4,215 to 4,225, the short band we set for the session. That 30-minute bar closed at 4,218.2. No bar closed higher all session. By the 1:00 PM ET bar the close was 4,180.9, and the contract settled at 4,181.1 at 1:30 PM ET, up 11.0 points or 0.26 percent from Thursday's 4,170.1 and 11.0 beneath its own 4,192.1 open.
Provider commentary said the dollar fell after the Federal Reserve Chair gave no guidance on policy in a speech at the annual International Monetary Fund meeting, and that this cut the priced chance of a rate increase later this month to 13 percent from 27 percent. The dollar index slipped 0.16 to 101.84. The ten-year yield index rose to 5.10 percent. Monday's primary setup is a short from 4,205 to 4,215, a band that holds Pivot R1 at 4,211.8 and the 20-day settlement average at 4,214.1. Two days of weekend headlines come first.
December gold settled at 4,181.1, 8.6 points beneath the 4,189.7 Pivot Point and 30.7 beneath Pivot R1 at 4,211.8. It sits 15.7 above the 5-day average and 11.3 above the 9-day, and 33.0 under the 20-day at 4,214.1. The longer averages sit higher. The primary setup is a short from 4,205 to 4,215, with Pivot R1 and the 20-day inside the band, stop 4,232 above two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7, targets 4,188, 4,166 and an extended 4,144. The band sits above the market. The settle is 23.9 points beneath its bottom. Negative direction leads on both directional windows and the composite reads "48% SELL". Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, and gold settles at 1:30 PM ET on Monday.
Friday's 4,220.4 high reached the 4,215 to 4,225 short band and stopped 21.6 points beneath its stop
In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 4,215 to 4,225, stop 4,242, with targets at 4,198, 4,176 and an extended 4,154. Its reopen status line put the contract at 4,189.2 at 6:33 PM ET, 25.8 points beneath the band. Friday's bar, from the review and the dated 10/16 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 4,192.1 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 4,220.4 and a low of 4,167.5, and settled at 4,181.1. The band traded in the morning. The high was not held.
The 30-minute bars fix the order. Both near targets printed first, on Thursday evening, before the band traded. The 6:00 PM ET bar traded down to 4,188.4, beneath the 4,198 first target. The 8:00 PM ET bar reached 4,172.3, beneath the 4,176 second. The session low of 4,167.5 followed in the 9:30 PM ET bar. Then the contract climbed. The 10:30 PM ET bar reached 4,201.3, the 11:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,204.8 and the 5:00 AM ET bar reached 4,213.3, 1.7 beneath the band.
The band came at 10:00 AM ET. That bar traded from 4,202.4 to 4,220.4, 5.4 points into the band and 4.6 beneath its top. The 10:30 AM ET bar reached 4,220.1 and closed at 4,206.3. Only those two bars reached 4,215. No 30-minute bar closed above 4,225, so the card's acceptance test, two consecutive closes above 4,225, was never met. The 4,242 stop stayed 21.6 points above the high. The settle finished 58.6 beneath the card's invalidation line, a settle above Pivot R2 at 4,239.7. No fill and no result is asserted.
After the band traded, the first target printed again in the 11:00 AM ET bar, which traded down to 4,194.1, 3.9 beneath 4,198. The second target did not. Among bars that opened before the 1:30 PM ET settlement, the lowest print after 10:00 AM ET was 4,177.1, in the 1:00 PM ET bar, 1.1 above 4,176. After the settle, the 2:30 PM ET bar came within 0.3, at 4,176.3. The extended 4,154 never traded; the low held 13.5 above it. The settle finished 16.9 beneath the first target and 5.1 above the second.
The path call held. Our Friday outlook weighted a hold between one standard deviation support at 4,130.0 and two standard deviations resistance at 4,226.9. It also weighted a rally that stalls beneath the 20-day settlement average at 4,226.3 above a sustained break higher. The low held 37.5 points above the bottom of that range. The high stopped 6.5 beneath its top and 5.9 beneath the 20-day.
Most of the range work held too. The low-range case of 4,150 to 4,215 gave way at the top, by 5.4 points. The most likely case of 4,130 to 4,227, the high-range case of 4,084 to 4,256 and the 4,084.0 to 4,256.2 average-true-range envelope held all session. The settle finished inside one deviation, 4,130.0 to 4,210.3, though the high went 10.1 through its top. The session bands went four for four. Globex, 4,160 to 4,215: the 6:00 PM ET to 3:00 AM ET bars ran 4,167.5 to 4,207.9. London, 4,150 to 4,225: 4,192.3 to 4,213.3. The morning, 4,130 to 4,227: 4,177.9 to 4,220.4. The afternoon, 4,113 to 4,240: 4,176.3 to 4,193.3.
The macro override named a soft import-price print that extends the dollar's decline, or a Gulf escalation that revives haven demand. Import prices rose 1.1 percent against a 1.0 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar. The dollar index still fell 0.16. From 2:09 PM ET to 2:11 PM ET, after the settle, the news feed carried US statements on Hormuz vessel traffic and the Iran blockade, statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. The stop never traded. We grade the card as written.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-10-16 row of the provider's daily record reads 4,192.1, 4,220.4, 4,167.5 and 4,181.1 on 135,074 contracts, with open interest not yet reported. The review states the same figures. Thursday's 2026-10-15 row was revised. It now carries 159,510 contracts, against the preliminary 155,223 our Friday outlook carried, and open interest of 320,217, down 1,471 from Wednesday's 321,688.
The 4,205 to 4,215 band, Pivot R1 at 4,211.8 and the 20-day average at 4,214.1
Resistance starts close. The 18-day crossing price at 4,188.4 and the Pivot Point at 4,189.7 sit 7.3 and 8.6 points above the settle, with Friday's 4,192.1 open just above them. The 3-10 day crossover stall level at 4,198.4 comes next.
Then the band. Pivot R1 at 4,211.8 sits inside it, 3.2 beneath its top. One standard deviation resistance and the 20-day settlement average share 4,214.1, 0.9 beneath the top. Last Friday's 4,216.3 settle, from 10/09, sits 1.3 above the band. Friday's 4,220.4 high sits 5.4 above it, and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,224.4 sits 43.3 above the settle and 4.0 above Friday's high. Then comes the stop, at 4,232. Two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7 sits 4.3 beneath it. Last week's 4,233.7 high, from 10/09, sits 1.7 above it. Three standard deviations resistance at 4,238.2, this week's 4,242.3 high from 10/12 and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 follow. Beyond those sit the 14-day relative strength projection at 50 percent at 4,245.7, Pivot R3 at 4,264.7 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,265.5. The rest is distant: the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,306.6, the 100-day at 4,310.7, the 40-day crossing at 4,344.7, the 50-day at 4,374.4, the 4,439.8 one-month high, the 200-day at 4,621.1 and the 4,755.0 13-week high.
Support starts at the settle. The published target price at 4,180.8 sits 0.3 beneath it. The 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,175.1 and Thursday's 4,170.1 settle follow, then the 9-day average at 4,169.8, the 9-day crossing at 4,167.6 and Friday's 4,167.5 low. The 5-day average sits at 4,165.4. Pivot S1 at 4,158.9 and the 3-10-16 day oscillator stall level at 4,152.2 come next. One standard deviation support at 4,148.1, the second momentum projection level at 4,141.5, Pivot S2 at 4,136.8 and two standard deviations support at 4,134.5 form the deeper band. Three standard deviations support at 4,124.0, Thursday's 4,120.9 low, Pivot S3 at 4,106.0, Wednesday's 4,095.0 low and the 4,091.2 one-month low are the extended references. The 13-week low of 4,019.0 and the 52-week low of 4,015.6 close the list.
Two averages sit beneath the settle. It is 15.7 points above the 5-day at 4,165.4 and 11.3 above the 9-day at 4,169.8. It is 33.0 beneath the 20-day at 4,214.1, 193.3 beneath the 50-day at 4,374.4, 129.6 beneath the 100-day at 4,310.7 and 440.0 beneath the 200-day at 4,621.1. The 5-day fell 7.0 from 4,172.4 as the 10/09 settle of 4,216.3 left the window and Friday's 4,181.1 replaced it. The 20-day fell 12.2 from 4,226.3 as the 09/18 settle of 4,424.9 dropped out. The 50-day slipped 2.4 from 4,376.8. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,481.3, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,247.0 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,931.5. Monday's crossing prices are 4,167.6 for the 9-day, 4,188.4 for the 18-day and 4,344.7 for the 40-day.
Momentum sits in the lower half. Relative strength reads 45.48 on the 9-day, 43.40 on the 14-day and 43.70 on the 20-day. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 59.50 percent and the 14-day 53.58 percent. The 14-day %K at 31.71 percent sits above %D at 26.74 percent. Sellers still lead on direction. On the 9-day, negative direction at 20.96 leads positive at 14.47 with the ADX at 24.70; on the 14-day, 21.03 leads 14.42 with the ADX at 20.40. Historic volatility reads 16.30 percent on the 9-day and 13.88 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings for the Friday session. The page was read after the settle, with no new session open.
The composite snapshot reads "48% SELL", strength "Minimum", direction "Weakest", composite indicator "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 80% SELL", the medium-term "Average: 25% SELL" and the long-term "Average: HOLD". History: "64% SELL" yesterday, "64% SELL" last week and "16% SELL" last month. The sell reading eased. It remains a sell.
Friday's range was narrow. Its 52.9 points were 0.73 times the 14-day average daily range of 72.1. The bar printed a higher high and a higher low against Thursday, by 22.7 and 46.6 points, and a second consecutive higher settle. It closed 11.0 beneath its open. The settle at 25.7 percent of the range left an upper shadow of 28.3 points above the open and a lower shadow of 13.6 beneath the settle. The 4,181.1 settle was the highest since the 4,190.6 settle of 10/12, and the 4,220.4 high the highest since the 4,224.8 high of 10/13.
The 14-day average true range stands at 83.8 points, shown as 2.00 percent on the provider's page. The 9-day figures are 78.5 and 72.9 and the 20-day 88.3 and 77.4. One average true range either side of the settle spans 4,097.3 to 4,264.9. The deviation bands are tighter. Built from five settlements, they run 4,148.1 to 4,214.1, 4,134.5 to 4,227.7 and 4,124.0 to 4,238.2. They describe settlement dispersion, and a weekend gap can open outside any of them. Daily ranges over eight sessions ran 106.6, 42.6, 77.6, 64.2, 55.1, 98.5, 76.8 and 52.9 points. Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 4,091.2 to 4,233.7, and this week 4,095.0 to 4,242.3. The contract ended the week 35.2 points, or 0.83 percent, beneath last Friday's 4,216.3. The one-month high of 4,439.8 sits 258.7 above the settle and the one-month low 89.9 beneath it. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes of 4,755.0 and 4,019.0 serve as the quarterly reference.
A quiet Fed Chair, a softer dollar and firmer yields
Start with the Fed. Provider commentary said the dollar fell after the Federal Reserve Chair gave no guidance on policy or the economy in a speech at the annual International Monetary Fund meeting. Per that commentary, the priced chance of a rate increase later this month fell to 13 percent from 27 percent on Thursday. A currency-news headline at 12:30 PM ET said the Chair would not prejudge the October decision. At 11:38 AM ET the feed carried investment-bank commentary expecting increases in December and January.
The data came earlier. September import prices rose 1.1 percent at 8:30 AM ET against a 1.0 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar. Provider commentary said import prices excluding petroleum rose 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent, the largest rise in five months. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent at 9:15 AM ET against a 0.4 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar. The calendar lists both releases.
The bars give the times. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the import price release, traded between 4,183.7 and 4,202.7 and closed at 4,187.3. The 9:00 AM ET bar traded down to 4,175.3 and closed at 4,180.9. Then gold ran. The 9:30 AM ET bar reached 4,211.0 and closed at 4,206.0, and the 10:00 AM ET bar marked the 4,220.4 high. From there it drifted. The 11:30 AM ET bar closed at 4,188.4, the 12:00 PM ET bar at 4,185.9 and the 1:00 PM ET bar at 4,180.9. The 1:30 PM ET bar, which spans the settlement, closed at 4,184.1. No cause is assigned to those moves here.
The dollar index closed at 101.84 in the provider's daily record, down 0.16 from Thursday's 102.00, after trading as low as 101.58. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.07 and 5.13 percent and closed at 5.10 percent against 5.08 percent, and the thirty-year closed at 5.44 percent against 5.42 percent. The 13-week bill index slipped to 4.07 percent from 4.08 percent. No inflation-protected yield series was captured. Real yields are not measured here. In the review's reading, a weaker dollar and slightly higher nominal yields pulled in opposite directions for gold. A currency-news headline at 3:30 PM ET said gold stumbled as US yields outweighed fading bets on an October rate increase.
Gulf headlines came after the settle. From 2:09 PM ET to 2:11 PM ET the news feed carried US statements on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and on the naval blockade of Iran. At 2:56 PM ET the news feed carried Iranian media reports that missiles were fired at the Aden airport. At 3:58 PM ET the news feed carried Iranian media reports of explosions in Damascus. At 4:44 PM ET, after the close, the news feed carried the President's remark that Iran will be over very soon. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. No causal link to the gold price is asserted.
China comes first on the weekend calendar. No central-bank purchase figure, Chinese reserve data or fund-holdings series was captured, so none is asserted. China's third-quarter growth, industrial output and retail sales figures are listed at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, with forecasts of 4.4 percent for annual growth and 0.5 percent for retail sales. Provider commentary said the Chinese yuan rose to a four-year high on Friday.
Energy ran hot. November WTI crude settled at 101.41, up 3.51 percent, and Brent's December contract settled at 109.86. Stocks fell. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,659.44, down 1.09 percent, the Nasdaq-100 cash index at 29,187.55, down 2.50 percent, and the volatility index at 19.99 against 16.46. Metals moved in step. December silver settled at 57.305, up 0.149, and December copper at 6.5735, up 0.0170, a 0.26 percent gain computed from the stated settle and change. Gold and silver each gained 0.26 percent, so the gold-to-silver ratio held at 72.96.
Positioning data are thin. The news feed listed a gold positioning summary for the week of October 13 at 3:38 PM ET, but no managed-money or commercial figure was read back, so none is asserted. Friday's volume was 135,074 contracts against Thursday's revised 159,510. Open interest reads 320,217 for Thursday, down 1,471 from 321,688 on Wednesday; Friday's had not been reported.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at about 6:18 PM ET, with a Date Updated stamp of 2026-10-16. It shows a previous-close field of 382.71 and a current-price field of 381.73, a change of minus 0.26 percent; the fund's own closes were not read from a second source, so these fields are reported as displayed. The console row shows call gamma of minus 215.5 million against put gamma of 126.5 million, modeled figures on a proxy. Volume ran put-heavy, an observation only. The console's call volume was 189.7 thousand against put volume of 308.27 thousand, about 1.6 puts for each call, and the put-to-call open-interest ratio reads 0.51. One-month implied volatility of 20.64 percent sits beneath one-month realised volatility of 21.46 percent, with an implied-volatility rank of 10.62 percent and a skew rank of 44.66 percent. The console's options implied move is 4.99, about 1.31 percent of the 381.73 price field.
The console reports volume and modeled gamma without trade side or customer positioning, so the put-heavy volume is recorded as an observation only; no directional read and no level is drawn from it. Modeled gamma is a non-directional lens on a proxy, and it sets no level here. The fund is a proxy used qualitatively. Its high and low volatility point fields are excluded as low-confidence, and no fund level is translated into a futures price.
The desk note, the 5:15 PM ET Friday edition, does not discuss gold. In the review's judgment the primary edge for gold is the dollar, yield and policy complex.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a short. Its band runs 4,205 to 4,215, around Pivot R1 at 4,211.8. The settle sits beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages, and negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. Friday's bar closed beneath its open at 25.7 percent of its range after a morning high of 4,220.4. The composite reads "48% SELL" with the composite indicator at "SELL". Pivot R1 sits 3.2 beneath the band top, and one standard deviation resistance and the 20-day average at 4,214.1 sit 0.9 beneath it. Risk sits above two deviations. The 4,232 stop clears two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7 by 4.3 and the 38.2 percent retracement at 4,224.4 by 7.6. Targets step down to 4,188, 1.7 beneath the Pivot Point at 4,189.7, then 4,166, 1.5 beneath Friday's 4,167.5 low, and an extended 4,144, 4.1 beneath one standard deviation support at 4,148.1. The review flags the evidence against it. Friday printed a higher high and a higher low, and two days of weekend headlines separate the settle from the reopen. So the review calls this an analyst judgment that rallies stall beneath the 20-day average, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 4,210 midpoint the risk to the stop is 22 points, 26.3 percent of the 14-day average true range of 83.8. The targets sit 22, 44 and 66 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. Friday's settle sits 23.9 to 33.9 points beneath the band. For scale, Friday's own high printed 5.4 above the band top and 11.6 beneath the stop. A weekend gap can open the market through the stop.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 4,150 to 4,215, the most likely 4,135 to 4,230 and the high-range case 4,097 to 4,265. Session bands come next. Through Globex, from the 6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen to 3:00 AM ET Monday, the review expects roughly 4,150 to 4,215, with the bias neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 4,211.8. A gap above Friday's 4,220.4 high opens the 38.2 percent retracement at 4,224.4 and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6. A gap beneath Friday's 4,167.5 low opens Pivot S1 at 4,158.9 and one standard deviation support at 4,148.1. London follows at roughly 4,145 to 4,220, neutral to lower, with the 4,205 to 4,215 band the first meaningful resistance and Pivot S1 the first meaningful support. The morning band runs 4,135 to 4,230. So does the afternoon.
The calendar starts Sunday night. China's third-quarter growth, industrial output and retail sales figures are listed at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. On Monday a European Central Bank board member is listed at 1:50 AM ET, Canadian consumer prices at 8:30 AM ET and the homebuilder sentiment index at 10:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no gold-specific scheduled release for the afternoon and no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday. The Tuesday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Monday. Housing starts print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and a large streaming-video company reports at 4:01 PM ET that day, as the calendar lists it. The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 4,148.1 and two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7. A rally toward the 4,205 to 4,215 band that fails beneath Friday's 4,220.4 high is weighted above a sustained break higher. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's judgment the first-order influences on Monday are the weekend's Iran and Gulf headlines, priced at the 6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen, and the dollar. The alternative is a weekend escalation that revives haven demand, or a further fall in the dollar, carrying the contract through Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 toward the 50 percent retracement at 4,265.5. Friday's higher high and higher low are the evidence against the short reading.
Friday's high stopped 4.6 points beneath the top of one short band and 5.4 above the top of the next.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 4,181.1 on Friday, up 11.0 or 0.26 percent from Thursday's settle of 4,170.1, after trading between 4,220.4 and 4,167.5, a 52.9 point daily range. The settle finished at 25.7 percent of the range, and the 52.9 point range was 0.73 times the published 14-day average daily range of 72.1 points. Friday printed a higher high and a higher low against Thursday, and the settle was the second consecutive higher settle.
The 4,181.1 settle was the highest since the 4,190.6 settle of 10/12, and the 4,220.4 high the highest since the 4,224.8 high of 10/13. Over the week the contract fell 35.2 points from last Friday's 4,216.3 settle, matching the provider's five-day change of minus 35.2, or minus 0.83 percent.
The session high came in the morning and was not held. In the 30-minute bars kept for the session the 9:00 AM ET bar traded down to 4,175.3, the 9:30 AM ET bar traded up to 4,211.0 and the 10:00 AM ET bar marked the 4,220.4 high before closing at 4,218.2. The contract then drifted lower into the 1:30 PM ET settlement, with the 11:30 AM ET bar closing at 4,188.4 and the 1:00 PM ET bar at 4,180.9.
The dollar index closed at 101.84, down 0.16, while the ten-year yield index closed at 5.10 percent against 5.08 percent on Thursday. November crude rose 3.51 percent to 101.41, the S&P 500 cash index fell 1.09 percent and the volatility index closed at 19.99 against 16.46. Silver's December contract settled at 57.305, up 0.26 percent.
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the next print. The published 14-day average true range of 83.8 points is shown as 2.00 percent on the provider's page. The composite snapshot reads "48% SELL" with the Composite Indicator at "SELL". The Primary Setup below is a short from the 4,205 to 4,215 band around Pivot R1 at 4,211.8, stopped at 4,232 above two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7, with objectives at 4,188, 4,166 and an extended 4,144.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 4,192.1 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 22.0 above Thursday's settle, marked a daily high of 4,220.4 and a daily low of 4,167.5, and settled at 4,181.1 at 1:30 PM ET. The 30-minute bars kept for the session place the session low of 4,167.5 in the 9:30 PM ET bar on Thursday evening and the session high of 4,220.4 in the 10:00 AM ET bar on Friday.
The 10:30 PM ET bar on Thursday traded up to 4,201.3 and closed at 4,197.5, the 11:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,204.8 and the 5:00 AM ET bar reached 4,213.3. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contains the import price release, traded between 4,183.7 and 4,202.7 and closed at 4,187.3, and the 9:00 AM ET bar traded down to 4,175.3 and closed at 4,180.9. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded up to 4,211.0 and closed at 4,206.0, and the 10:00 AM ET bar traded between 4,202.4 and 4,220.4 and closed at 4,218.2.
From there the 10:30 AM ET bar closed at 4,206.3, the 11:00 AM ET bar at 4,196.7, the 11:30 AM ET bar at 4,188.4 and the 12:00 PM ET bar at 4,185.9. The 1:00 PM ET bar traded between 4,177.1 and 4,182.6 and closed at 4,180.9, and the 1:30 PM ET bar, which spans the settlement, closed at 4,184.1. After the settle the 2:30 PM ET bar traded down to 4,176.3 and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,186.7; those post-settlement quotes are not used as the settlement anywhere in this review.
Friday's Globex session ends at 5:00 PM ET and does not reopen until 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so the provider's displayed open, high and low of 4,192.1, 4,220.4 and 4,167.5 belong to the completed Friday session. The session extremes are also the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Monday, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 4,264.7 minus Pivot S3 at 4,106.0, divided by three, returns 52.9, and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 minus Pivot S2 at 4,136.8, divided by two, returns the same 52.9. Three times the Pivot Point of 4,189.7 less the 4,181.1 settle gives a high plus low sum of 8,388.0, which the pair of 4,220.4 and 4,167.5 reproduces to the published rounding at 8,387.9, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row, the provider's overview, the chart's completed Friday daily bar and the extremes of the 30-minute bars kept for the session carry the same 4,220.4 high and 4,167.5 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed a higher high and a higher low against Thursday: the 4,220.4 high sits 22.7 above Thursday's 4,197.7, and the 4,167.5 low sits 46.6 above Thursday's 4,120.9. The settle at 25.7 percent of the range leaves an upper shadow of 28.3 above the 4,192.1 open and a lower shadow of 13.6 beneath the settle, so the daily bar closed beneath its open after the morning high.
The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 4,233.7, 4,242.3, 4,224.8, 4,193.5, 4,197.7 and 4,220.4, and the sequence of session lows reads 4,156.1, 4,178.1, 4,169.7, 4,095.0, 4,120.9 and 4,167.5. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 4,216.3, 4,190.6, 4,177.3, 4,107.9, 4,170.1 and 4,181.1.
Last week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 4,233.7 to 4,091.2, and this week spanned 4,242.3 to 4,095.0, with the contract 35.2 beneath last Friday's 4,216.3 settle. The one-month low of 4,091.2 sits 89.9 beneath the settle and the one-month high of 4,439.8 sits 258.7 above it. The 13-week low of 4,019.0 and the 52-week low of 4,015.6 frame the lower side, while the 13-week high stands at 4,755.0.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference: 4,755.0 above and 4,019.0 beneath.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 106.6, 42.6, 77.6, 64.2, 55.1, 98.5, 76.8 and 52.9. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read minus 46.4, plus 16.3, plus 59.3, minus 25.7, minus 13.3, minus 69.4, plus 62.2 and plus 11.0.
The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,224.4, 43.3 above the settle and 4.0 above Friday's high, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,265.5. Further above, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high sits at 4,306.6. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars and the 30-minute bars kept for the session.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions through Friday. The 5-day average stands at 4,165.4, the 9-day at 4,169.8, the 20-day at 4,214.1, the 50-day at 4,374.4, the 100-day at 4,310.7 and the 200-day at 4,621.1.
The 4,181.1 settle sits 15.7 above the 5-day average and 11.3 above the 9-day, but 33.0 beneath the 20-day, 193.3 beneath the 50-day, 129.6 beneath the 100-day and 440.0 beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell 7.0 from Thursday's 4,172.4, because the 10/09 settle of 4,216.3 left the window and was replaced by 4,181.1. The 20-day fell 12.2 from 4,226.3, because the 09/18 settle of 4,424.9 left that window, and the 50-day fell 2.4 from 4,376.8.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 4,214.1 against 4,374.4 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,481.3. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 4,247.0, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,931.5. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Monday: 4,167.6 for the 9-day, 4,188.4 for the 18-day and 4,344.7 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session. The Friday Globex session had closed and no new session had opened when the page was read, so the page reflects the settle; they remain the provider's published readings rather than computations made for this review. The 9-day relative strength reads 45.48, the 14-day relative strength 43.40 and the 20-day relative strength 43.70.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 59.50 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 53.58 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 31.71 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 26.74 percent, so %K sits above %D in the lower half of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 24.70 with the 9-day +DI at 14.47 and the 9-day -DI at 20.96; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 20.40 with the 14-day +DI at 14.42 and the 14-day -DI at 21.03, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 16.30 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 13.88 percent.
The composite multi-indicator snapshot published for the Friday session, quoted verbatim, reads Overall Average "48% SELL", Current Strength "Minimum" and Current Direction "Weakest", with the Composite Indicator at "SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 80% SELL", the medium-term group "Average: 25% SELL" and the long-term group "Average: HOLD". The snapshot comparisons read Yesterday "64% SELL", Last Week "64% SELL" and Last Month "16% SELL", so the sell reading eased from the prior session while remaining a sell.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 83.8 points and the 14-day average daily range at 72.1 points; the 9-day average true range is 78.5 with a 9-day average daily range of 72.9, and the 20-day average true range is 88.3 with a 20-day average daily range of 77.4. Friday's 52.9 point range was 0.73 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 83.8 points from the 4,181.1 settle frames Monday between 4,097.3 and 4,264.9. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 4,148.1 to 4,214.1, two spans 4,134.5 to 4,227.7 and three spans 4,124.0 to 4,238.2. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and a weekend gap can open outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 4,181.1 settle, the 18-day average crossing price at 4,188.4 and the Pivot Point at 4,189.7 are the first references, followed by the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 4,198.4. Pivot R1 at 4,211.8 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,214.1, which matches the 20-day settlement average of 4,214.1, come next, followed by Friday's 4,220.4 high and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,224.4. Two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7, three standard deviations resistance at 4,238.2 and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 form the extended band, with the 14-day relative strength projection at 50 percent at 4,245.7 and Pivot R3 at 4,264.7 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the published target price at 4,180.8, with the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,175.1 and Thursday's 4,170.1 settle next. The 9-day average crossing price at 4,167.6 and Friday's 4,167.5 low follow, then Pivot S1 at 4,158.9 and the 3-10-16 day oscillator stall level at 4,152.2. One standard deviation support at 4,148.1, the 14-3 day momentum projection level at 4,141.5 and Pivot S2 at 4,136.8 form the deeper band, with two standard deviations support at 4,134.5, Pivot S3 at 4,106.0 and the one-month low at 4,091.2 the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index closed at 101.84 in the provider's daily record, down 0.16 from Thursday's 102.00, after trading as low as 101.58. The ten-year yield index traded between 5.07 and 5.13 percent and closed at 5.10 percent against 5.08 percent on Thursday, and the thirty-year yield index closed at 5.44 percent against 5.42 percent. The thirteen-week bill index closed at 4.07 percent against 4.08 percent.
No inflation-protected yield series was captured for this review, so real yields are not measured here. A weaker dollar and slightly higher nominal yields pulled in opposite directions for gold on Friday. A currency-news headline at 3:30 PM ET said gold stumbled as US yields outweighed fading bets on an October rate increase.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
Provider commentary said the dollar fell after the Federal Reserve Chair gave no guidance on policy or the economy in a speech at the annual International Monetary Fund meeting, which reduced the priced chance of a rate increase later this month to 13 percent from 27 percent on Thursday. A currency-news headline at 12:30 PM ET said the Chair would not prejudge the October decision, and at 11:38 AM ET the feed carried investment-bank commentary expecting increases in December and January.
September import prices rose 1.1 percent at 8:30 AM ET against a 1.0 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar, and provider commentary said import prices excluding petroleum rose 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent, the largest rise in five months. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent at 9:15 AM ET against a 0.4 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar; both releases are listed on the calendar. The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 2:09 PM ET to 2:11 PM ET US statements on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and on the naval blockade of Iran, at 2:56 PM ET Iranian media reports that missiles were fired at the Aden airport, and at 3:58 PM ET Iranian media reports of explosions in Damascus. After the close, at 4:44 PM ET, it carried the President's remark that Iran will be over very soon. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review, and no causal link to the gold price is asserted.
4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)
No central-bank purchase figure, Chinese reserve data or fund-holdings series was captured for this review, so none is asserted. China's third-quarter growth, industrial output and retail sales figures are listed at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, with forecasts of 4.4 percent for annual growth and 0.5 percent for retail sales. Provider commentary said the Chinese yuan rose to a four-year high on Friday.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
November WTI crude settled at 101.41, up 3.51 percent, and Brent's December contract settled at 109.86. Silver's December contract settled at 57.305, up 0.149, and copper's December contract at 6.5735, up 0.0170. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,659.44, down 1.09 percent, the Nasdaq-100 cash index at 29,187.55, down 2.50 percent, and the volatility index at 19.99. The gold to silver ratio held at 72.96 because gold and silver each gained 0.26 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)
The news feed listed a gold positioning summary for the week of October 13 at 3:38 PM ET, but no managed-money or commercial figure was read back, so none is asserted. Open interest on the December contract is shown at 320,217 for Thursday, down from 321,688 on Wednesday; Friday's open interest had not been reported when the review was prepared. Friday's volume was 135,074 contracts against Thursday's 159,510.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at about 6:18 PM ET with a Date Updated stamp of 2026-10-16. It shows a previous-close field of 382.71 and a current-price field of 381.73, a change of minus 0.26 percent; the fund's own closes were not read from a second source for this review, so these fields are reported as displayed. The console row shows modeled call gamma of minus 215.5 million against put gamma of 126.5 million, call volume of 189.7 thousand against put volume of 308.27 thousand, and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.51.
One-month implied volatility of 20.64 percent sits beneath one-month realised volatility of 21.46 percent, with an implied-volatility rank of 10.62 percent and a skew rank of 44.66 percent; the console's options implied move is 4.99, about 1.31 percent of the 381.73 price field. The console reports volume and modeled gamma without trade side or customer positioning, so the put-heavy volume is recorded as an observation only; no directional read and no level is drawn from it.
The desk note read for this review, the 5:15 PM ET Friday edition, does not discuss gold. The console's high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded, and no fund level is translated into a futures price.
The proxy caveat stands in any case: the gold fund is a proxy for the futures contract, used qualitatively only, and its levels are never translated into futures prices. Primary edge for gold is the dollar, yield and policy complex in section 4.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026, after two days of weekend headline exposure, with the Iran, Yemen and Strait of Hormuz statements and the President's 4:44 PM ET remark unresolved at the close. A gap above Friday's 4,220.4 high opens the 38.2 percent retracement at 4,224.4 and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6, while a gap beneath Friday's 4,167.5 low opens Pivot S1 at 4,158.9 and one standard deviation support at 4,148.1. China's third-quarter data are listed at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 4,211.8, expected Globex band roughly 4,150 to 4,215.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
A European Central Bank board member is listed at 1:50 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 4,145 to 4,220, with the 4,205 to 4,215 band the first meaningful resistance and Pivot S1 at 4,158.9 the first meaningful support.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, US Open)
Canadian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 AM ET and the homebuilder sentiment index at 10:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 4,135 to 4,230.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no gold-specific scheduled release for this window. Expected band roughly 4,135 to 4,230.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The Tuesday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Monday. Housing starts print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and the next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 4,150 to 4,215
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 4,135 to 4,230
High-range scenario: 4,097 to 4,265
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 4,148.1 and two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7, with a rally toward the 4,205 to 4,215 band that fails beneath Friday's 4,220.4 high weighted above a sustained break higher. The settle sits beneath the 20-day through 200-day averages, negative direction leads on the directional systems, Friday's bar closed beneath its open at 25.7 percent of its range, and the composite snapshot reads "48% SELL". The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a weekend escalation that revives haven demand, or a further fall in the dollar, carrying the contract through Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 toward the 50 percent retracement at 4,265.5.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. September import prices printed at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the calendar lists them, with the news-feed calendar showing 1.1 percent against a 1.0 percent forecast, and industrial production printed at 9:15 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar showing 0.7 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast. Gold settled at 1:30 PM ET.
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026. China's third-quarter growth, industrial output and retail sales figures are listed at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. On Monday, a European Central Bank board member is listed at 1:50 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Canadian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 AM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The homebuilder sentiment index is listed at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday.
Later in the week, housing starts print at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and a large streaming-video company reports at 4:01 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The next policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influences on gold on Monday are the weekend's Iran and Gulf headlines, priced at the 6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen, and the dollar.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The settle sits beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, Friday's bar closed beneath its open at 25.7 percent of its range after a morning high of 4,220.4, and the composite snapshot reads "48% SELL" with the Composite Indicator at "SELL"; a rally toward Pivot R1 at 4,211.8 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,214.1 offers a short with a defined risk point above two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7. Friday printed a higher high and a higher low and two days of weekend headlines separate the settle from the reopen, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rallies stall beneath the 20-day average rather than a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 4,205 to 4,215
Stop Loss: 4,232 (above two standard deviations resistance at 4,227.7 and the 38.2 percent retracement at 4,224.4)
Target 1 (T1): 4,188 (1.7 beneath the Pivot Point at 4,189.7)
Target 2 (T2): 4,166 (1.5 beneath Friday's 4,167.5 low)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 4,144 (4.1 beneath one standard deviation support at 4,148.1)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,215.
Macro override: A weekend escalation in the Gulf that revives haven demand, or a further fall in the dollar, would invalidate the short in real time. In that scenario a gap or move through the 4,232 stop removes the setup, and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 and the 50 percent retracement at 4,265.5 become the references within one 14-day average true range of 83.8 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 16, 2026 for the Monday, October 19, 2026 session. Friday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Monday: Pivot R3 at 4,264.7 less Pivot S3 at 4,106.0, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,242.6 less Pivot S2 at 4,136.8, divided by two, both return 52.9, and three times the 4,189.7 Pivot Point less the settle gives 8,388.0, against 8,387.9 for the 4,220.4 high plus the 4,167.5 low, a match to the published rounding. The provider's settlement row, the chart's completed Friday bar and the 30-minute bars kept for the session carry the same extremes, and only those figures, the dated 2026-10-16 row of the provider's daily record and the review's statements are used to grade Friday's card. Every timed statement about the session rests on those 30-minute bars, timed by each bar's opening in ET. Friday's session opened at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, and Globex does not reopen until 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so the displayed open, high and low belong to the completed Friday session.
Thursday's 2026-10-15 row has been revised since our Friday outlook: volume now reads 159,510 contracts against the preliminary 155,223, and open interest is now reported at 320,217; Thursday's prices are unchanged. Friday's open interest had not been reported. The moving averages were computed from the provider's 260-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Friday session, read after the settle, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its console carries no trade side, its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields are excluded, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The percent changes for the dollar index and copper are computed from the stated closes and changes. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Friday outlook covers the November WTI contract, which settled at 101.41 on Friday, up 3.51 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
