Nasdaq Futures 27,835.25: Short 28,100 to 28,140 at R1

Executive Summary

The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 27,835.25 on Tuesday, down 179.25 or 0.64 percent from Monday's settle of 28,014.50, after trading between 28,109.00 and 27,516.00, a 593.00 point daily range. The settle finished at 53.8 percent of the range, and the range was 0.68 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 875.48 points. Tuesday printed a lower high, 20.25 beneath Monday's 28,129.25, and a higher low, 764.75 above Monday's 26,751.25, so the whole session traded inside Monday's range.

The 593.00 point range is the narrowest since the 411.25 point range of 11/03/26. Over five sessions the contract is down 470.50 from the 28,305.75 settle of 11/03/26, a decline of 1.66 percent. The settle ended a run of two higher settles.

The high came on Monday evening and the low after midday. The contract made the 28,109.00 high in the 7:00 PM ET bar on Monday, fell 268.25 in the 8:30 AM ET bar as the October consumer price index printed hotter than forecast, rose 269.25 in the 9:30 AM ET bar, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session, and then declined through the late morning to the 27,516.00 low in the 12:30 PM ET bar. That low followed a 12:20 PM ET market-moving news-feed item that an artificial-intelligence developer had unveiled office tools rivaling a large software company; the item and the low came in consecutive bars, and the series does not establish that the item caused the decline.

The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 27,740.80, down 166.83 or 0.60 percent, and the semiconductor index fell 0.35 percent. The provider's commentary said stocks settled lower on fears of Fed rate hikes as bond yields rose on the inflation data, which is attributed commentary. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.98 percent after a 5.02 percent high, the dollar index rose 0.57 percent and the volatility index closed at 19.46.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Tuesday evening is "80% SELL" with strength "Average" and direction "Average", unchanged in percentage from "80% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits above the 5-day settlement average and beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day. On the dealer-positioning dataset the cash close sits 306.20 points beneath the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,047 (NQ 28,141.45) and 259.20 beneath the NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) key strike.

The primary setup is a short from the 28,100 to 28,140 band, around Pivot R1 at 28,124.17 and the futures conversions of the NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) and 28,047 levels, stopped at 28,260, with objectives at 27,980, 27,840 and an extended 27,700. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday with CME Globex on normal hours, per the verified forward calendar.

Price Action & Technical Structure

Intraday and Session Review

The Tuesday session opened at 28,064.00 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 49.50 above Monday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the high of 28,109.00 in the 7:00 PM ET bar on Monday and the low of 27,516.00 in the 12:30 PM ET bar on Tuesday. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 27,869.00 and 28,109.00 and closed that window at 27,962.25, with the 10:30 PM ET bar making the 27,869.00 low of that window.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 27,590.00 and 28,044.25 and closed the window at 27,743.75. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contained the release of the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, traded between 27,997.50 and 27,590.00, a 407.50 point span, the widest of any bar in the session, and fell 268.25 from 27,919.75 to 27,651.50, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 9:00 AM ET bar rose 92.25 to 27,743.75.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 27,516.00 and 28,090.00. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 269.25 to 28,012.25, and the 10:00 AM ET bar reached 28,090.00, the high of the cash hours, before closing at 27,909.50. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 169.75 to 27,740.25 and the 11:30 AM ET bar fell 145.00 to 27,631.75. The 12:30 PM ET bar made the 27,516.00 low and closed at 27,637.75, and from 1:30 PM ET the bars closed higher in each half hour through the 3:30 PM ET bar, which reached 27,897.00 and closed at 27,836.00. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 27,900.75, 65.50 above the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:26 PM ET, carries an open of 27,899.50, a high of 27,899.50 and a low of 27,847.75 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, not to Tuesday's completed session; its previous close field reads 27,835.25. Tuesday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 28,717.17 minus Pivot S3 at 26,938.17, divided by three, returns 593.00, and Pivot R2 at 28,413.08 minus Pivot S2 at 27,227.08, divided by two, returns the same 593.00.

Three times the Pivot Point at 27,820.08, less the 27,835.25 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 55,624.99, which with the 593.00 range solves to a high of 28,108.995 and a low of 27,515.995, or 28,109.00 and 27,516.00 at the published rounding. That pair, with the 27,835.25 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 28,064.00 open, 28,109.00 high, 27,516.00 low and 27,835.25 settle.

Daily Structure

Tuesday traded inside Monday's range, with a lower high and a higher low, and settled 179.25 lower, ending a run of two higher settles. Settlements over the last six sessions read 28,305.75, 28,566.75, 26,752.00, 27,085.25, 28,014.50 and 27,835.25, so the contract has recovered 1,083.25 of the 1,814.75 point decline of 11/05/26 and settles 731.50 beneath Wednesday's 28,566.75. Over five sessions the contract is down 470.50 from the 28,305.75 settle of 11/03, which the provider also publishes as a 1.66 percent five-day change.

The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 31,289.25 as the one-month high and 26,366.50, dated 11/06/26, as the one-month and 13-week low. The settle sits 992.63 beneath the 28,827.88 level published as the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range and 312.50 above the 27,522.75 level published as the 50 percent retracement of the 52-week range.

The settle finished at 53.8 percent of the day's range, 319.25 above the 27,516.00 low and 273.75 beneath the 28,109.00 high. In our reading a session inside Monday's range that closed near its midpoint describes a pause after Monday's 3.43 percent gain rather than a resumption of the decline of 11/05/26.

4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/28, ran 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50, 1,058.50, 1,378.00 and 593.00, so the range contracted on Tuesday to the narrowest since the 411.25 point range of 11/03/26. In the 30-minute series two bars moved more than 250 points from open to close, the 8:30 AM ET decline of 268.25 and the 9:30 AM ET gain of 269.25, and the next largest move was the 169.75 decline of the 10:30 AM ET bar.

The swing structure since the 31,616.50 high of 10/06 shows a 26,366.50 low on 11/06, a rebound high of 28,129.25 on Monday and a lower high of 28,109.00 on Tuesday. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 28,246.99, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 28,372.00 and the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88, all above Tuesday's high.

Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed for this outlook from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/31/25 through Tuesday; the partial row dated Wednesday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 200-day window contains 44 deferred-month rows with zero volume, which are settlement marks rather than traded prices and are included as published. The 5-day average stands at 27,650.75, the 9-day at 28,087.00, the 20-day at 28,969.75, the 50-day at 29,803.50, the 100-day at 29,757.25 and the 200-day at 28,505.00.

The 27,835.25 settle sits 184.50 above the 5-day average and 251.75 beneath the 9-day, 1,134.50 beneath the 20-day, 1,968.25 beneath the 50-day, 1,922.00 beneath the 100-day and 669.75 beneath the 200-day. It is the fourth consecutive settle beneath the 200-day average, the last settle above it on 11/04/26, and the 20th consecutive settle beneath the 20-day and 50-day, the last settle above both on 10/13/26. The 5-day average fell from Monday's 27,744.75 as Tuesday's settle replaced the 11/03 settle of 28,305.75, and the 9-day fell from 28,325.25.

The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,359.25. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,710.75, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,252.50. The 5-day sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 29,409.25.

Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:27 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not our computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 39.91, the 14-day relative strength 39.35 and the 20-day relative strength 40.18.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 42.85 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 38.53 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 33.54 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 25.35 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 35.01 with the 9-day +DI at 16.03 and the 9-day -DI at 24.40, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 28.96 with the 14-day +DI at 15.88 and the 14-day -DI at 25.65, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 43.14 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 38.23 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Tuesday evening, on a page titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, is "80% SELL", with signal strength "Average" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "80% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "48% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "80% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 815.47 points and the 14-day average daily range at 875.48 points; the 9-day average true range is 917.13, and the 20-day average true range is 741.67 with a 20-day average daily range of 812.78. Tuesday's 593.00 point range was 0.68 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 815.47 from the 27,835.25 settle frames Wednesday between 27,019.78 and 28,650.72. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 27,105.02 to 28,565.48 at one deviation, 26,802.55 to 28,867.95 at two and 26,570.45 to 29,100.05 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the five-day window includes the 1,814.75 point decline of 11/05/26, which widens them.

Key Levels

Resistance

Above the 27,835.25 settle, the first references are the 27,900.75 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 27,902.63 projected crossing of the 9-day average, followed by the 27,998.56 published target price. The 28,090.00 cash-hours high, the 28,094.45 conversion of the NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) key strike, Tuesday's 28,109.00 high and Pivot R1 at 28,124.17 form the next band, with the 28,141.45 conversion of the NDX 28,047 (NQ 28,141.45) modeled gamma-flip level just above it. The 28,246.99 retracement from the four-week low, the 28,272.25 projection for the 50 percent raw stochastic, the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low and Pivot R2 at 28,413.08 follow, with the 200-day average at 28,505.00 beyond.

Support

Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 27,820.08, with the 27,766.79 stall of the 3-10-16 day MACD projection beneath it. The 27,535.79 stall of the 3-10 day crossover, Pivot S1 at 27,531.17, the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and Tuesday's 27,516.00 low form the next band. Pivot S2 at 27,227.08, one standard deviation support at 27,105.02 and the 27,094.45 conversion of the NDX 27,000 (NQ 27,094.45) primary put side support base follow, with Pivot S3 at 26,938.17 and the 26,366.50 low of 11/06/26 as the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

Megacap earnings and AI spending

At 11:50 AM ET the equities feed reported that one large software company's market value had surpassed the leading chip designer's for the first time since June 2025, and at 12:20 PM ET the market-moving feed reported that an artificial-intelligence developer had unveiled office tools ahead of a planned listing, rivaling that software company. At 2:09 PM ET the equities feed carried press reports that a data-centre operator was considering delaying a listing after an artificial-intelligence share decline, and at 4:09 PM ET press reports that a second developer's quarterly revenue rose to 10 billion dollars. An artificial-intelligence cloud operator reported quarterly revenue of 3.66 billion dollars after the close against an estimate of 3.56 billion, per the news feed. The leading chip designer's results are scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, per the verified forward calendar.

Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation

The semiconductor index closed at 9,998.33, down 0.35 percent, after Monday's 6.85 percent gain, against the Nasdaq-100's 0.60 percent decline. A macro feed headline at 4:45 PM ET described the Nasdaq-100 leading US indexes lower on the inflation data and the chip designer, which is attributed commentary.

Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)

The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October against a 0.3 percent forecast and the core index 0.3 percent against 0.2 percent, per the news-feed calendar's actual values for the 8:30 AM ET release scheduled on the verified forward calendar. At 4:00 AM ET the market-moving feed carried remarks from a Fed Governor that a half-point hike may be needed in December if core inflation came in around 0.3 percent or higher, and from 3:31 PM ET the bonds feed carried remarks from the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision that the data suggest inflation pressures may persist. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.98 percent, up 12 basis points, after a 5.02 percent high; the data captured no inflation-protected yield series, so real yields are not measured here.

Geopolitical backdrop

Feeds carried reports on Iran diplomacy through the afternoon. These are reports carried by the feeds, and the settlement series does not establish that any single item caused a particular move.

Cross-Asset and Volatility

The volatility index closed at 19.46, down 2.31 percent from 19.92, after a 21.61 high, and the dollar index rose 0.57 percent to 102.23. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.38 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.30 percent, so the Nasdaq-100's 0.60 percent decline was the largest of the three. At 10:19 AM ET the equities feed carried a sentiment index reading of 34 out of 100, labelled fear. Gold's December contract fell 2.05 percent.

Institutional Positioning

Tuesday's December volume was 679,797 contracts against 802,930 on Monday, per the settlement record, and the overview lists open interest of 287,847 contracts, the latest published figure. Settlement less the cash close gives a measured basis of 94.45 points, 27,835.25 less 27,740.80, against 106.87 on Monday. The dealer-positioning dataset lists Nasdaq-100 index option open interest of 92.226 thousand calls against 107.374 thousand puts, and the tracking fund's of 6.883 million calls against 7.631 million puts.

Dealer positioning on the index and its tracking fund

The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section, the edition timed 5:10 PM ET on Tuesday, uses Monday's closes as its reference prices, not Tuesday's: NDX 27,907 equals Monday's 27,907.63 cash close and the tracking fund's 678 matches the console's 678.76 previous close. Monday's 27,907.63 less 166.83 points, a 0.60 percent decline, gives the provider's 27,740.80 Tuesday close, and every level below is read against that close.

On the index the modeled gamma-flip level sits at NDX 28,047 (NQ 28,141.45), the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45), the largest gamma concentration at NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45), the primary call side ceiling at NDX 29,675 (NQ 29,769.45) and the primary put side support base at NDX 27,000 (NQ 27,094.45). The close sits 306.20 points beneath the flip level, 259.20 beneath the threshold and largest concentration, and 1,934.20 beneath the ceiling, and 740.80 above the put side base. Gamma tilt reads 0.946, gamma notional minus 2.28 million dollars and the 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.072, and the dataset's key strikes are NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45), 27,000, 29,000 and 30,000. These levels were computed from Monday's closes, and the dataset does not state how they shifted during Tuesday's session.

On the tracking fund, the dataset lists the modeled volatility threshold at 690, the largest gamma concentration at 680, the call side ceiling at 720, the put side base at 650 and the modeled gamma-flip level at 687, with gamma tilt at 0.748 and gamma notional at minus 538.653 million dollars. The positioning console, read at 6:31 PM ET, carries the fund at 676.30 against a 678.76 previous close, a 0.36 percent decline, with its largest gamma concentration at 680, a hedging-pressure reference at 690, its call side ceiling at 720 and its put side support base at 650.

At our measured 94.45 point basis the NDX 27,000 put side base converts to 27,094.45, the NDX 28,000 key strike to 28,094.45, the NDX 28,047 flip level to 28,141.45, the NDX 29,000 key strike to 29,094.45 and the NDX 29,675 ceiling to 29,769.45. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. In our reading a close beneath the flip level, the threshold and the largest concentration, with negative gamma notional on both the index and the fund, places the index in the part of the dataset's map where hedging can add to moves in either direction, with the NDX 27,000 (NQ 27,094.45) base the nearest dataset reference beneath. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path comes from the futures series.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday with the overview showing a 27,899.50 open, above the 27,835.25 settle, after the cloud operator's results. Remarks by the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision are scheduled for 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Bias neutral between the Pivot Point at 27,820.08 and Pivot R1 at 28,124.17, expected band roughly 27,700 to 28,050.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)

Remarks by the European Central Bank President are listed for 3:45 AM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral beneath the 28,094.45 conversion of the NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) key strike, expected band roughly 27,650 to 28,050.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, RTH Open)

The 9:30 AM ET cash open is the first directional test, on the Veterans Day holiday when CME Globex keeps normal hours and banks are closed, per the verified forward calendar. Expected band roughly 27,550 to 28,150, with the 28,100 to 28,140 setup band at the top.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Wednesday)

The 4:00 PM ET cash close fixes the reference for the cash index, and the leading chip designer's results follow on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, per the verified forward calendar. Expected band roughly 27,550 to 28,100.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)

The Wednesday evening session carries into weekly jobless claims, listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Japanese producer prices are listed for 6:50 PM ET on Wednesday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)

• Low-range scenario: 27,650 to 28,050
• Mid-range scenario (most likely): 27,530 to 28,125
• High-range scenario: 27,230 to 28,415

Most Likely Path

In our analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 27,531.17 and Pivot R1 at 28,124.17, with a rebound toward the 28,100 to 28,140 band that stalls beneath the 28,141.45 conversion of the modeled gamma-flip level weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "80% SELL" with the medium horizon group at "100% SELL", the settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages for a 20th session and beneath the 200-day for a fourth, and the cash close sits beneath the dataset's flip level, which in our reading favours selling a rebound into Tuesday's high rather than buying a test of Tuesday's low.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R2 at 28,413.08, which would bring the 200-day average at 28,505.00 into play and place the cash index above the flip level. On the other side, a further rise in yields could carry the contract through Tuesday's 27,516.00 low toward Pivot S2 at 27,227.08 without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Tuesday's releases are complete. The consumer price index was released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the news-feed calendar records a monthly headline rise of 0.4 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast and a core rise of 0.3 percent against 0.2 percent. Remarks by a Fed Governor were scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. The news feed reported a ten-year note auction high yield of 5.02 percent at 1:00 PM ET, a feed item unconfirmed against the verified calendar.

Remarks by the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision were scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours and normal settlement times and banks closed, per the verified forward calendar. Remarks by the European Central Bank President at 3:45 AM ET on Wednesday are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Later in the week, the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and weekly jobless claims are listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The leading chip designer's results are scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, per the verified forward calendar. In our judgment the first-order input for the index on Wednesday is the 9:30 AM ET cash open against the NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) key strike and 28,047 flip level, with yields after Tuesday's inflation data the main macro input.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages for a 20th session and beneath the 200-day for a fourth, the composite reads "80% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while the cash close sits beneath the dataset's NDX 28,000 (NQ 28,094.45) key strike and 28,047 flip level. A rebound into the 28,100 to 28,140 band, around Pivot R1 at 28,124.17, Tuesday's 28,109.00 high and the 28,094.45 and 28,141.45 conversions of those dataset levels, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 28,272.25 projection. A close at mid-range after an inside session and a higher low are the main risks to a short, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 28,100 to 28,140

Stop Loss: 28,260 (above the 28,246.99 retracement from the four-week low, beneath the 28,272.25 projection)

Target 1 (T1): 27,980 (beneath the 27,998.56 published target price)

Target 2 (T2): 27,840 (above the 27,835.25 settle and the Pivot Point at 27,820.08)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 27,700 (beneath the 27,766.79 MACD projection stall)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 28,413.08 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,140.

Macro override: A reversal lower in yields, or a strong reaction to the cloud operator's results across artificial-intelligence shares, would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 28,260 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 28,372.00 retracement becomes the reference, 112.00 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 815.47.