At the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, the December Nasdaq-100 contract opened at 26,878.50, beneath all three targets of the short we had set at Friday's settle. It made its low of 26,751.25 in the 2:30 AM ET bar. Then the cash open. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 442.00 points and ran through the 27,480 to 27,520 band and the 27,650 stop in the same half hour.
The contract settled at 28,014.50 on Monday, up 929.25 points or 3.43 percent, after a 1,378.00 point range. It printed a higher high and a higher low than Friday and finished at 91.7 percent of the range. Tuesday's card is another short, from 28,440 to 28,480. That band sits above the settle and above Monday's 28,129.25 high. All three targets sit above the settle too.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 28,014.50 on Monday, up 929.25 points or 3.43 percent, after a range between 26,751.25 and 28,129.25, above the 5-day settlement average and beneath the 9-day through the 200-day. Scored from Friday's settle, when it was set, Monday's short band at 27,480 to 27,520 first traded in the 9:30 AM ET bar, after the session had opened beneath all three targets; the same bar traded through the 27,650 stop, and the contract settled 130.06 points above the 27,884.44 invalidation level. No fill or result is asserted. The primary setup for Tuesday is a short from 28,440 to 28,480, a band 425.50 points above the settle and 310.75 above Monday's high, just beneath the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08, stop 28,600, with targets at 28,320, 28,180 and an extended 28,040, all three above the settle. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, as the calendar lists it.
Monday’s card: an open beneath every target, then band and stop in one bar
In Monday’s outlook we set a short from 27,480 to 27,520, stop 27,650, at Friday's settle of 27,085.25. Its targets sat at 27,350, 27,200 and an extended 27,050. A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44 would negate it. Monday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-11-09 settlement row, opened at 26,878.50 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, made a low of 26,751.25 and a high of 28,129.25, and settled at 28,014.50.
The order matters here. The 6:00 PM ET bar opened at 26,878.50, 171.50 points beneath the third target. Its high of 27,199.00 stopped 1.00 short of the second. The 2:30 AM ET bar then made the 26,751.25 low, 298.75 beneath the third target. All of that came before the band traded. No result follows from it.
London firmed. The 7:30 AM ET bar reached 27,378.00, 28.00 points above the first target and 102.00 beneath the band bottom. That was the highest print before the cash open.
Then 9:30 AM ET. The bar opened at 27,342.50, made a high of 27,797.50 and closed at 27,784.50. It traded through the whole band and through the 27,650 stop, reaching 147.50 points beyond it. Its low of 27,316.25 also sat 33.75 beneath the first target. The order of prints inside that bar is not asserted.
The acceptance test printed too. The card defined the edge as removed by two consecutive 30-minute closes above 27,520. The 9:30 AM ET bar closed at 27,784.50 and the 10:00 AM ET bar at 27,835.00. From 10:00 AM ET on, the lowest print was 27,688.75, 38.75 points above the stop. No target traded after the band.
The settle went further. At 28,014.50 it sat 130.06 points above the 27,884.44 level that negated the thesis. The card's macro override named a further rebound in semiconductors as one scenario that could lift the contract, and the semiconductor index rose 6.85 percent. In that scenario the card said a move through the stop invalidates the short before the targets. That is the order the bars show. No fill and no result are asserted.
One session band held. The night band of 26,700 to 27,400 contained its window of 26,751.25 to 27,319.00, with 51.25 points to spare at the bottom and 81.00 at the top. Every other band gave way, and every miss came on the upside.
The misses grew through the day. London's 26,750 to 27,350 met a window that reached 27,378.00, 28.00 over the top. The morning band of 26,600 to 27,550 met a 28,014.75 high, 464.75 over. The afternoon band of 26,600 to 27,500 met a window of 27,891.00 to 28,129.25, which sat wholly above it.
The three scenario cases missed the same way. The high-range case of 26,250 to 27,900 was exceeded by 229.25 points at the 28,129.25 high. The most likely case of 26,550 to 27,600 gave way by 529.25. The low-range case of 26,750 to 27,350 gave way by 779.25 at the top, though its bottom held by 1.25.
The base case, an analyst judgment, held the contract between Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, with a rebound that stalls beneath Pivot R1. The low held, 258.42 points above Pivot S1. The stall did not. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded 246.17 points through Pivot R1, and the settle finished 463.17 above it.
The ranked second case printed instead. A settle above 27,884.44 would invalidate the reading and could bring Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 and the 28,095.26 conversion into play. Both traded in the 2:30 PM ET bar. The 28,129.25 high sat 111.83 above Pivot R2 and 33.99 above the conversion, and the settle landed 2.92 beneath Pivot R2. The third case, a reopen beneath Pivot S1, did not print; the reopen came 385.67 points above it.
A 929.25 point gain on a higher high and a higher low
The session ran low first, high last. From the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 26,751.25 and 27,319.00. The 6:00 PM ET bar rose 243.75 points to 27,122.25. The 8:00 PM ET bar fell 162.75, the largest decline of any bar, and the 2:30 AM ET bar fell 148.50 to 26,817.00 to close that window.
London and the early US hours firmed. From 3:00 AM ET to the cash open the contract traded between 26,812.00 and 27,378.00. The 3:00 AM ET bar rose 182.50 points. The 9:00 AM ET bar closed the window at 27,343.00.
Then the open. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 442.00 points to 27,784.50, the largest gain of any bar and the only one to move more than 250 points from open to close. The 10:30 AM ET bar closed at 27,991.00. The 11:00 AM ET bar gave back 139.25 to 27,851.75. Across the cash hours the bars held between 27,316.25 and 28,129.25.
The afternoon pressed higher. At 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy; the 2:30 PM ET bar that contained the item reached 28,114.75 and closed at 28,025.50, and the advance and the report coincided. The 3:00 PM ET bar made the 28,129.25 high and closed at 28,117.75. The 3:30 PM ET bar fell 114.00 to 28,003.50. After the cash close the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,073.25, 58.75 above the settle.
The daily bar is firm. Monday's high sat 704.25 points above Friday's 27,425.00 and its low 384.75 above Friday's 26,366.50. The settle rose 929.25 and finished at 91.7 percent of the 1,378.00 point range. That range was 1.60 times the 14-day average daily range of 860.66.
The longer marks frame it. The settle is the highest since the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26. Monday's high sits 539.25 points beneath Thursday's 28,668.50 high. The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 31,289.25 as the one-month high, 26,366.50 as the one-month and 13-week low and 23,429.00 as the 52-week low. The settle sits 491.75 above the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range.
The pivot ladder rests on that bar. Pivot R3 at 29,890.08 less Pivot S3 at 25,756.08, divided by three, returns 1,378.00. So does Pivot R2 at 29,009.67 less Pivot S2 at 26,253.67, divided by two. Three times the 27,631.67 Pivot Point less the settle gives 54,880.51. That is the sum of the high and the low within published rounding.
The week is nearly flat. The last six settles read 28,127.50, 28,305.75, 28,566.75, 26,752.00, 27,085.25 and 28,014.50. Two higher settles recovered 1,262.50 of the 1,814.75 points lost on Thursday. Over five sessions the contract is down 113.00 points, or 0.40 percent, from the 28,127.50 settle of 11/02.
Resistance starts close. The 28,060.87 conversion of the NDX 27,954 flip level sits 46.37 points above the settle. The 28,073.25 post-close print, the 28,106.87 conversion of the NDX 28,000 key strike, the 28,118.47 crossing price for the 9-day average and Monday's 28,129.25 high all sit within 114.75 points.
Above them sit the 28,246.99 retracement from the four-week low, the 28,272.25 projection for a 50 percent raw stochastic and the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low. Then a tight group. The 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low, the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08 sit within 23.20 points of each other. The 28,781.87 threshold conversion and one standard deviation resistance at 28,802.48 lie beyond.
Support sits further off. The 27,763.78 published target price sits 250.72 points beneath the settle. The 5-day average at 27,744.75 and the 27,707.75 stall of the 3-10-16 day oscillator sit just beneath it. The Pivot Point at 27,631.67, the 27,606.87 conversion of the NDX 27,500 key strike, the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and the 27,509.95 projection for a 30 percent raw stochastic follow.
Further down come the 27,456.87 conversion of the NDX 27,350 call side level, the 27,351.29 stall of the 3-10 day crossover and one standard deviation support at 27,226.52. Pivot S1 at 27,134.08 and the 27,106.87 conversion of the NDX 27,000 base sit 27.21 apart. Two deviations at 26,900.13, three deviations at 26,649.68 and Pivot S2 at 26,253.67 are the deeper references.
The averages split. The settle sits 269.75 points above the 5-day at 27,744.75. It sits 310.75 beneath the 9-day at 28,325.25 and 485.00 beneath the 200-day at 28,499.50. The 20-day at 29,117.50 sits 1,103.00 up, the 100-day at 29,789.25 sits 1,774.75 up and the 50-day at 29,843.00 sits 1,828.50 up. The review computed the averages from 259 completed daily settlements and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick.
Monday is the third consecutive settle beneath the 200-day and the 19th beneath both the 20-day and the 50-day; the last settle above either came on 10/13/26. One caveat applies. The 200-day window holds 45 sessions, from 01/27/26 to 04/27/26, with no recorded volume, so it rests on thin history. The 5-day eased from 27,767.50 as the 11/02 settle of 28,127.50 left the window, and the 200-day rose from 28,492.25.
The order of the longer averages comes from their older settlements. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 30,326.50, above the 20-day, so the 20-day sits beneath the 50-day. The 50 older ones in the 100-day window averaged 29,735.75, and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 27,209.75. Both run lower.
The oscillators sit mid-scale. Relative strength reads 41.55 on the 9-day, 40.52 on the 14-day and 41.10 on the 20-day. The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastics both read 43.24 percent and the 20-day 36.30 percent. The 14-day %K at 22.38 percent sits 2.25 points above %D at 20.13 percent. Sellers still lead. On the 9-day, negative direction at 26.29 tops positive at 17.27 by 9.02, with the ADX at 36.80; on the 14-day, 27.05 tops 16.75 by 10.30, with the ADX at 29.38.
Historic volatility reads 43.85 percent on the 9-day and 38.87 percent on the 14-day. These readings are as published, read at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the reopened session's live price. The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening sits at 80 percent sell, from 88 percent sell a session earlier. Strength and direction are both described as average. A week ago it read 72 percent sell. A month ago, 80 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent sell, the medium group 100 percent sell and the long group 33 percent sell, and the trend composite reads sell.
One average true range either side of the settle spans 27,181.91 to 28,847.09, on the 14-day figure of 832.59. The 9-day average true and daily ranges read 957.64 and 1,024.81, the 20-day 749.50 and 798.86. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 27,226.52 to 28,802.48, 26,900.13 to 29,128.88 and 26,649.68 to 29,379.32. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges, from 10/27, read 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50, 1,058.50 and 1,378.00 points.
A 3.40 percent cash gain, a 6.85 percent chip rally and a close 46.37 points under the flip level
The cash market rose with the contract. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 27,907.63, up 917.64 points or 3.40 percent. The S&P 500 rose 2.35 percent and the Dow industrials 2.15 percent. The semiconductor index rose 6.85 percent to 10,033.93. The volatility index closed at 19.92, down 22.31 percent.
Commentary filled in the picture, all of it attributed. The provider's commentary attributed the gain to dip buying in semiconductor and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares and described dip buyers returning to beaten-down chipmakers; that is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move. The same commentary said the largest chip designer closed down more than 4 percent, also attributed commentary.
Company items ran through the session, per the equities news feed. At 11:06 AM ET it carried press reports that a US inquiry into a Singapore buyer of advanced chips had been halted after the company intervened. These are press reports carried by the feed, not confirmed findings. The chip designer's quarterly results are scheduled for about 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists them.
Yields barely moved. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up one basis point. At 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. The provider's commentary put the market-implied chance of a quarter-point increase at the next policy meeting at 83 percent; that is attributed commentary, not a computed probability.
Wholesale trade data was released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, as the calendar lists it. The provider's commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent, also attributed commentary. The dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65. December WTI crude fell 4.38 percent to 86.85 and December gold rose 0.97 percent to 4,114.5. Each move is reported on its own. None is presented here as the cause of another.
The positioning dataset looks back a day. Its edition, timed 5:29 PM ET on Monday, uses Friday's closes as reference prices: NDX 26,989 corresponds to Friday's 26,989.99 cash close, QQQ 656 to the console's 656.22 and SPX 7,376 to 7,376.86. The dataset does not state how its levels shifted during Monday's session. Friday's 26,989.99 plus 917.64 points gives Monday's 27,907.63 close, and every level is read against it.
The close sits at the transition. It sits 46.37 points beneath the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 27,954 and 92.37 beneath the 28,000 key strike. The modeled volatility threshold at 28,675 sits 767.37 up. Beneath, the call side ceiling at 27,350 sits 557.63 down, and 27,000, both the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base, sits 907.63 down. The dataset lists 27,000, 28,000, 29,000 and 27,500 as key index strikes and 26,747, 26,990, 27,962 and 26,315 as combination levels.
Gamma tilt, a model output, reads 0.638 for the index and 0.569 for the QQQ fund proxy. Gamma notional reads minus 8.89 million dollars and minus 810.335 million. The 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.093 and minus 0.08. All are model outputs.
On the QQQ proxy the call side ceiling sits at 720, the modeled volatility threshold at 691 and the modeled gamma-flip level at 690. The largest gamma concentration and the put side support base share 650. Those are proxy levels. The console, read at 6:23 PM ET, carried Friday's 656.22 as its previous close and a console price of 680.20, up 3.65 percent. The review treats that as a console reading, not a settlement. Call gamma reads minus 1.09 billion against put gamma of minus 1.91 billion.
Call volume of 1.25 million ran against put volume of 1.51 million; options volume carries no direction here. One-month implied volatility reads 28.81 percent against realised volatility of 30.96 percent. The implied-volatility rank reads 80.05 percent, the skew rank 20.00 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.09.
The basis widened to 106.87 points, the 28,014.50 settle less the 27,907.63 cash close, from 95.26 on Friday. The review converts six positioning levels at it. The NDX 27,000 base becomes 27,106.87, the 27,350 call side level 27,456.87 and the 27,500 key strike 27,606.87. The flip level becomes 28,060.87, the 28,000 key strike 28,106.87 and the threshold 28,781.87. The conversions are the review's own.
In the review's interpretation, a cash close 46.37 points beneath the flip level and 92.37 beneath the 28,000 key strike places the contract at the dataset's transition zone, with the threshold well overhead and the 27,500 and 27,000 strikes beneath. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. Tuesday's setup sells a rebound toward the 200-day average and Pivot R1, between the 28,106.87 key-strike conversion and the 28,781.87 threshold conversion.
Activity eased. Volume came to 783,446 contracts on the 2026-11-09 row, against Friday's 869,317 on the 2026-11-06 row, a figure revised from the 849,854 carried in Monday's outlook. Open interest reads 301,017 on that 2026-11-06 row, which Monday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 9,314 beneath the 310,331 on the 2026-11-05 row. Monday's open interest is not yet reported. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
The trade map for Tuesday
The primary setup is a short from 28,440 to 28,480. The contract settled beneath the 200-day for a third session and beneath the 20-day and 50-day for a 19th. The composite reads 80 percent sell, and negative direction leads on both directional systems. The rebound has carried the contract toward the 200-day. The whole band sits above Monday's 28,129.25 high, its bottom 310.75 points up, and 425.50 to 465.50 above the settle.
Its bottom sits 68.00 points above the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low. Its top sits 8.88 beneath the 28,488.88 retracement, 19.50 beneath the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and 32.08 beneath Pivot R1 at 28,512.08. Then the stop. At 28,600 it sits 120 points above the band top, 87.92 above Pivot R1 and 181.87 beneath the 28,781.87 threshold conversion.
All three targets sit above the settle. The first, 28,320, sits 47.75 above the 28,272.25 projection for a 50 percent raw stochastic. The second, 28,180, sits 50.75 above Monday's high. The extended third, 28,040, sits 25.50 above the settle and 20.87 beneath the 28,060.87 flip-level conversion. None reaches beneath the settle.
The setup needs a rebound first. Price would have to rise 425.50 points, or 1.52 percent, from the settle to reach the band. No Monday bar traded there. Two higher settles and a close near the top of the range are the main risk to a short. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the 200-day average are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 28,460 midpoint the risk to the stop is 140 points, 16.8 percent of the 14-day average true range of 832.59. The targets sit 140, 280 and 420 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 120 points beneath the band bottom.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 27,750 to 28,300, its top 20.00 beneath the first target. The most likely case runs 27,550 to 28,500, its top 20.00 above the band. The high-range case runs 27,200 to 28,800. Its top sits 2.48 beneath one standard deviation resistance, its bottom 26.52 beneath one deviation support.
Session by session, the review expects roughly 27,850 to 28,250 from the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET, with a neutral bias above the Pivot Point at 27,631.67. That top sits 190.00 beneath the band bottom. Globex reopened at 28,064.00 on the overview, 49.50 above the settle; that open, a 28,091.75 high and a 28,041.00 low belong to Tuesday's session as read at 6:19 PM ET. London follows from 3:00 AM ET at 27,800 to 28,250, with a neutral bias between the Pivot Point and Monday's high.
The morning band runs 27,600 to 28,500, with the setup band near its top. The afternoon band runs 27,700 to 28,450, its top inside the setup band. Headline risk on diplomacy carries through every window.
Tuesday opens on data. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, together with real earnings, as the calendar lists them. The news-feed calendar lists forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index, against 0.6 percent previously, and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index, against 0.3 percent. Speakers fill the rest of the day. A Federal Reserve official speaks at 4:00 AM ET, and another at 3:30 PM ET and again at 6:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. Remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 10:50 AM ET and 1:30 PM ET and a ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
The scenarios are ranked. In the review's analyst judgment the base case holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 27,631.67 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08. Within it, a test of the 28,440 to 28,480 band that stalls beneath the 200-day average and Pivot R1 is weighted above a settle through it. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's interpretation an 80 percent sell composite, negative direction on both systems and a third settle beneath the 200-day favour selling a test of the 200-day average over buying the reopen, even after two higher settles and a close at 91.7 percent of the range.
Second comes a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 28,802.48. That would invalidate this reading and could bring the 28,991.50 midpoint of the 13-week range and Pivot R2 at 29,009.67 into play. Third comes a firmer inflation print. It could send the contract back through the Pivot Point at 27,631.67 toward Pivot S1 at 27,134.08 without the rebound the setup needs.
In the review's judgment the first-order event on Tuesday is the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the 9:30 AM ET cash open against the NDX 27,954 flip level and the 28,000 key strike. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Wednesday, November 11 is the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours, and the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, as the calendar lists them.
Tuesday's band sits 310.75 points above the high where Monday's rally stopped.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Both lists are classified against the 28,014.50 settle. Tuesday’s band, 28,440 to 28,480, sits above the settle and above Monday’s 28,129.25 high, beneath the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,014.50 on Monday, up 929.25 or 3.43 percent from Friday's settle of 27,085.25, after trading between 28,129.25 and 26,751.25, a 1,378.00 point daily range. The settle finished at 91.7 percent of the range, and the range was 1.60 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 860.66 points. Monday printed a higher high, 704.25 above Friday's 27,425.00, and a higher low, 384.75 above Friday's 26,366.50, and settled higher for a second session. The settle is the highest since 11/04/26, when the contract settled at 28,566.75. Over five sessions the contract is down 113.00 from the 28,127.50 settle of 11/02/26, a decline of 0.40 percent.
The low came in the early hours of Monday and most of the gain in the cash session. The contract traded down to 26,751.25 in the 2:30 AM ET bar, rose to 27,343.00 by the close of the 9:00 AM ET bar, and the 9:30 AM ET bar rose 442.00 to 27,784.50, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 3:00 PM ET bar made the 28,129.25 high after the 2:30 PM ET bar reached 28,114.75; that bar contained a 2:38 PM ET news-feed item carrying a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy, and the advance and the report coincided; the report is attributed and is not presented as a cause.
The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 27,907.63, up 3.40 percent, and the semiconductor index rose 6.85 percent. The provider's commentary attributed the gain to dip buying in semiconductor and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares and said the largest chip designer closed down more than 4 percent, which is attributed commentary. December crude fell 4.38 percent, the dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65, the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent and the volatility index closed at 19.92.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening is "80% SELL" with strength "Average" and direction "Average", against "88% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits above the 5-day settlement average and beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day, beneath the 200-day for a third session. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 28,440 to 28,480 band, beneath the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08, stopped at 28,600, with objectives at 28,320, 28,180 and an extended 28,040. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 26,878.50 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 206.75 beneath Friday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the low of 26,751.25 in the 2:30 AM ET bar on Monday and the high of 28,129.25 in the 3:00 PM ET bar. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 26,751.25 and 27,319.00; the 6:00 PM ET bar rose 243.75 to 27,122.25, the 8:00 PM ET bar fell 162.75, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar, and the 2:30 AM ET bar fell 148.50 to 26,817.00, closing that window.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 26,812.00 and 27,378.00, and the 9:00 AM ET bar closed that window at 27,343.00. Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 27,316.25 and 28,129.25. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 442.00 to 27,784.50 and the 10:30 AM ET bar closed at 27,991.00, while the 11:00 AM ET bar fell 139.25 to 27,851.75. The 2:30 PM ET bar reached 28,114.75 and closed at 28,025.50, the 3:00 PM ET bar made the 28,129.25 high and closed at 28,117.75, and the 3:30 PM ET bar fell 114.00 to 28,003.50. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,073.25, 58.75 above the settle.
The provider's overview page, read at 6:19 PM ET, is titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and its open of 28,064.00, high of 28,091.75 and low of 28,041.00 belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, not to Monday's completed session; its previous close field reads 28,014.50. Monday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 29,890.08 minus Pivot S3 at 25,756.08, divided by three, returns 1,378.00, and Pivot R2 at 29,009.67 minus Pivot S2 at 26,253.67, divided by two, returns the same 1,378.00. Three times the Pivot Point of 27,631.67 less the 28,014.50 settle gives a high plus low sum of 54,880.51, which with the 1,378.00 range solves to a high of 28,129.255 and a low of 26,751.255, or 28,129.25 and 26,751.25 at the published rounding; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 26,878.50 open, 28,129.25 high, 26,751.25 low and 28,014.50 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a higher high and a higher low against Friday and settled 929.25 higher, the second consecutive higher settle after Friday's 333.25 point gain. Settlements over the last six sessions read 28,127.50, 28,305.75, 28,566.75, 26,752.00, 27,085.25 and 28,014.50, so the two higher settles recovered 1,262.50 of Thursday's 1,814.75 point decline. Over five sessions the contract is down 113.00 from the 28,127.50 settle of 11/02, which the provider also publishes as a 0.40 percent five-day change.
The settle is the highest since the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26. The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 31,289.25 as the one-month high, 26,366.50 as the one-month and 13-week low and 23,429.00 as the 52-week low. The settle sits 491.75 above the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and 474.38 beneath the 28,488.88 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/27, ran 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50, 1,058.50 and 1,378.00, so the range expanded on Monday after Friday's narrower session and was wider than every session in that list before 11/04. In the 30-minute series only the 9:30 AM ET bar moved more than 250 points from open to close.
The swing sequence shows Thursday's 26,570.00 low and Friday's 26,366.50 low, now the one-month low, followed by Monday's higher low at 26,751.25, while Monday's 28,129.25 high sits 539.25 beneath Thursday's 28,668.50 high. The published grid places the 9-day average crossing at 28,118.47, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 28,246.99 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 28,372.00.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/30/25 through Monday; the partial row dated Tuesday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 5-day average stands at 27,744.75, the 9-day at 28,325.25, the 20-day at 29,117.50, the 50-day at 29,843.00, the 100-day at 29,789.25 and the 200-day at 28,499.50. The 200-day window includes 45 zero-volume rows from the contract's deferred period, so the longer averages carry thin early settlements.
The 28,014.50 settle sits 269.75 above the 5-day average and 310.75 beneath the 9-day, 1,103.00 beneath the 20-day, 1,828.50 beneath the 50-day, 1,774.75 beneath the 100-day and 485.00 beneath the 200-day. It is the third consecutive settle beneath the 200-day average and the 19th consecutive settle beneath both the 20-day and the 50-day, the last settle above either coming on 10/13/26. The 5-day average eased from Friday's 27,767.50 as Monday's settle replaced the 11/02 settle of 28,127.50, and the 200-day average rose from 28,492.25.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,326.50. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,735.75, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,209.75.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings and were not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 41.55, the 14-day relative strength 40.52 and the 20-day relative strength 41.10.
The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastic read 43.24 percent and the 20-day 36.30 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 22.38 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 20.13 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 36.80 with the 9-day +DI at 17.27 and the 9-day -DI at 26.29, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 29.38 with the 14-day +DI at 16.75 and the 14-day -DI at 27.05, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 43.85 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 38.87 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening, on a page titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, is "80% SELL", with signal strength "Average" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "72% SELL" a week ago and "80% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "80% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 832.59 points and the 14-day average daily range at 860.66 points; the 9-day average true range is 957.64 with 1,024.81 points as the 9-day average daily range, and the 20-day average true range is 749.50 with a 20-day average daily range of 798.86. Measured against the 14-day average daily range, Monday's range was 1.60 multiples of it.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 832.59 from the 28,014.50 settle frames Tuesday between roughly 27,182 and 28,847. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 27,226.52 to 28,802.48 at one deviation, 26,900.13 to 29,128.88 at two and 26,649.68 to 29,379.32 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the inflation data at 8:30 AM ET adds event risk that a single-session band does not cover.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 28,014.50 settle, the first references are the 28,060.87 conversion of the dataset's NDX 27,954 flip level, the 4:30 PM ET bar close at 28,073.25, the 28,106.87 conversion of the NDX 28,000 key strike, the 28,118.47 price that would cross the 9-day average and Monday's 28,129.25 high. The 28,246.99 retracement from the four-week low, the 28,272.25 projection for the 50 percent raw stochastic and the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low form the next band. The 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low, the 200-day average at 28,499.50 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08 follow, with the 28,781.87 conversion of the NDX 28,675 threshold and one standard deviation resistance at 28,802.48 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 27,763.78 published target price, with the 5-day average at 27,744.75 and the 27,707.75 stall of the 3-10-16 day oscillator beneath it. The Pivot Point at 27,631.67, the 27,606.87 conversion of the NDX 27,500 key strike, the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and the 27,509.95 projection for the 30 percent raw stochastic form the next band. The 27,456.87 conversion of the NDX 27,350 call side level, the 27,351.29 stall of the 3-10 day crossover and one standard deviation support at 27,226.52 follow, with Pivot S1 at 27,134.08 and the 27,106.87 conversion of the NDX 27,000 base beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Largest-Company Results and the AI Spending Cycle
The provider's commentary said the largest technology shares rallied on Monday and that the largest chip designer closed down more than 4 percent, which is attributed commentary. The equities feed carried at 11:06 AM ET press reports that a US inquiry into a Singapore buyer of advanced chips had been halted after the company intervened; these are press reports, not confirmed findings. The chip designer's quarterly results are scheduled for about 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index rose 6.85 percent to 10,033.93, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 3.40 percent, against the S&P 500's 2.35 percent and a 2.15 percent gain in the Dow industrials. The provider's commentary described dip buyers returning to beaten-down chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares, which is attributed commentary.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up one basis point, and at 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. The provider's commentary put the market-implied chance of a quarter-point increase at the next policy meeting at 83 percent, which is attributed commentary, not a computed probability. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index.
4.4 Diplomacy Reports and Listings
At 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy; it is an attributed report, not a confirmed event. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed at 19.92. The dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65, December crude fell 4.38 percent and gold rose 0.97 percent. The cash basis, the settle less the Nasdaq-100 cash close of 27,907.63, is 106.87 points, against 95.26 on Friday; both legs are completed-session daily records from the provider, read at 6:18 PM ET.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
Monday's December volume was 783,446 contracts on the 2026-11-09 row of the provider's settlement record, against 869,317 on Friday's 2026-11-06 row, revised from the 849,854 carried in Monday's outlook. Monday's open interest is not yet reported; Friday's reads 301,017 on the 2026-11-06 row. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
The dealer-positioning dataset used here, the edition timed 5:29 PM ET on Monday, uses Friday's closes as its reference prices, not Monday's: NDX 26,989 corresponds to Friday's 26,989.99 cash close, QQQ 656 corresponds to the console's Friday close of 656.22, and SPX 7,376 corresponds to Friday's 7,376.86. Friday's 26,989.99 plus 917.64 points, a 3.40 percent gain, gives the provider's 27,907.63 Monday close, and every level below is read against that close.
On the index the modeled volatility threshold sits at NDX 28,675, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 27,954, the call side ceiling at NDX 27,350 and both the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base at NDX 27,000. The close sits 767.37 points beneath the threshold and 46.37 beneath the flip level, and 557.63 above the call side level and 907.63 above the 27,000 base. The dataset's key strikes for NDX are 27,000, 28,000, 29,000 and 27,500, and its NDX combination levels are 26,747, 26,990, 27,962 and 26,315. Gamma tilt reads 0.638 for NDX and 0.569 for QQQ, gamma notional minus 8.89 million dollars for NDX and minus 810.335 million for QQQ, and the 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.093 for NDX and minus 0.08 for QQQ, all model outputs; the QQQ figures are proxy readings. These levels were computed from Friday's closes, and the dataset does not state how they shifted during Monday's session.
At the measured 106.87 point basis the NDX 27,000 base converts to 27,106.87, the NDX 27,350 call side level to 27,456.87, the NDX 27,500 key strike to 27,606.87, the NDX 27,954 flip level to 28,060.87, the NDX 28,000 key strike to 28,106.87 and the NDX 28,675 threshold to 28,781.87. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
The QQQ console, read at 6:23 PM ET, carried Friday's 656.22 as its previous close and a console price of 680.20, up 3.65 percent, which is a console reading rather than a settlement. On the dataset's QQQ column the call side ceiling sits at 720, the modeled volatility threshold at 691, the modeled gamma-flip level at 690 and the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base at 650. The console shows call gamma of minus 1.09 billion against put gamma of minus 1.91 billion, call volume of 1.25 million against put volume of 1.51 million, a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.09, one-month implied volatility of 28.81 percent against realised volatility of 30.96 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 80.05 percent and a skew rank of 20.00 percent, all proxy readings, with options volume carrying no direction here.
In this review's interpretation a cash close 46.37 points beneath the NDX 27,954 flip level and 92.37 beneath the NDX 28,000 key strike places the contract at the dataset's transition zone, with the 28,675 threshold well overhead and the 27,500 and 27,000 strikes beneath. The setup in section 8 sells a rebound toward the 200-day average and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08, between the 28,106.87 key-strike conversion and the 28,781.87 threshold conversion. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path in section 2.1 comes from the 30-minute futures series, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex and Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday with the overview showing a 28,064.00 open, 49.50 above the settle. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 are scheduled, as the calendar lists them, just after this window, and headline risk on diplomacy remains. Bias neutral above the Pivot Point at 27,631.67, expected band roughly 27,850 to 28,250.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 are scheduled, as the calendar lists them. Bias neutral between the Pivot Point at 27,631.67 and the 28,129.25 high, expected band roughly 27,800 to 28,250.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, cash open)
The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first cash-session test of the response. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 10:50 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 27,600 to 28,500, with the 28,440 to 28,480 setup band near the top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Tuesday)
A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Expected band roughly 27,700 to 28,450.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
The Tuesday evening session carries into the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, when CME Globex keeps normal hours per the forward calendar's exchange notice, and into the producer price index scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 27,750 to 28,300; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 27,550 to 28,500; High-range scenario: 27,200 to 28,800.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 27,631.67 and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08, with a test of the 28,440 to 28,480 band that stalls beneath the 200-day average and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08 weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "80% SELL", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 200-day for a third session, while two higher settles and a close at 91.7 percent of the range describe a rebound, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a test of the 200-day average rather than buying the reopen.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 28,802.48, which would bring the 28,991.50 midpoint of the 13-week range and Pivot R2 at 29,009.67 into play. On the other side, a firmer inflation print could send the contract back through the Pivot Point at 27,631.67 toward Pivot S1 at 27,134.08 without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. Wholesale trade data was released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the provider's commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent, which is attributed commentary. The news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent at 3:15 PM ET, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar.
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, together with real earnings. The news-feed calendar lists forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index, against 0.6 percent previously, and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index, against 0.3 percent previously. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET. A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET and remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 10:50 AM ET and 1:30 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday with CME Globex on normal hours and the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the contract on Tuesday is the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the 9:30 AM ET cash open against the NDX 27,954 flip level and the 28,000 key strike.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 200-day average for a third session and beneath the 20-day and 50-day for a 19th, the composite reads "80% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while the rebound has carried the contract toward the 200-day average at 28,499.50. A rebound into the 28,440 to 28,480 band, above the 28,372.00 retracement and beneath the 200-day average and Pivot R1 at 28,512.08, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 28,781.87 threshold conversion. Two higher settles and a close near the top of the range are the main risk to a short, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the 200-day average are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 28,440 to 28,480
Stop Loss: 28,600 (above Pivot R1 at 28,512.08 and the 200-day average, beneath the 28,781.87 threshold conversion)
Target 1 (T1): 28,320 (above the 28,272.25 raw stochastic projection)
Target 2 (T2): 28,180 (above the 28,129.25 session high)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 28,040 (above the 28,014.50 settle)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 28,802.48 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,480.
Macro override: Two scenarios could lift the contract: a softer inflation print, or a further report of progress in diplomacy. In either scenario a move through the 28,600 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 28,781.87 threshold conversion becomes the reference, 181.87 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 832.59.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Monday's close on November 9, 2026 for the Tuesday, November 10, 2026 session, which opened when Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday; its setup is the review's as published at the settle. Monday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-11-09 row, which is Monday's completed session, and match the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series. Monday's session opened at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The overview page, read at 6:19 PM ET, had already rolled to Tuesday's session, so its open, high and low are not used as Monday's range. Pivot R3 at 29,890.08 less Pivot S3 at 25,756.08, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 29,009.67 less Pivot S2 at 26,253.67, divided by two, both return 1,378.00, and three times the 27,631.67 Pivot Point less the settle gives 54,880.51, the sum of the 28,129.25 high and the 26,751.25 low within published rounding. Every time of day given for Monday's prices comes from the 30-minute series for Monday's session, which starts at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, read as Eastern clock labels. Monday's card was set at Friday's settle, so it is scored over the whole Monday session from the 6:00 PM ET reopen; where two levels traded in the same 30-minute bar, the order inside that bar is not asserted. Session windows are scored over the bars that open inside each window.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick; 45 of the 200 sessions in the 200-day window carry no recorded volume. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the reopened session's live price. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-11-09 row reads 783,446 contracts, and Monday's open interest is not yet reported; the 2026-11-06 row now reads 869,317 contracts and open interest of 301,017, where Monday's outlook carried 849,854 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-11-05 row reads open interest of 310,331. No weekly positioning report figure is carried. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Friday's closes in its reference column, and its levels were computed from them; every Nasdaq futures conversion is the review's, at the 106.87 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 95.26 on Friday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. Its levels and gamma figures, like the index model's, are model outputs; gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction, and options volume carries no direction. The fund console was read at 6:23 PM ET. Company items, reports and remarks are described per the news feed with generic descriptions; the provider's commentary is attributed commentary, and no move is attributed to it. Cross-asset moves are reported side by side, and none is presented as the cause of another. The semiconductor index change is computed from its closes, 9,390.25 and 10,033.93, as 6.85 percent. The volume and open-interest changes, the session-window highs and lows and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Monday outlook covers the index that rose 2.35 percent in cash on Monday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
