At the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, the December Nasdaq-100 contract opened at 26,640.25 and fell to 26,366.50 inside the first half hour. That was the low. By the cash open it had climbed back, and the 9:30 AM ET bar ran to 27,425.00, through the 27,280 to 27,320 short band we had set at Thursday's settle. The stop, at 27,460, never traded.
The contract settled at 27,085.25 on Friday, up 333.25 points or 1.25 percent, after a 1,058.50 point range. It printed a lower high and a lower low than Thursday and still settled higher. Over the week it fell 1,448.75 points, or 5.08 percent. Monday's card is another short, from 27,480 to 27,520. That band sits above the settle and above Friday's high. Two of its three targets sit above the settle too.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 27,085.25 on Friday, up 333.25 points or 1.25 percent, after a range between 26,366.50 and 27,425.00, and beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Scored from Thursday's settle, when it was set, Friday's short band at 27,280 to 27,320 traded in the 9:30 AM ET bar, after the session had opened beneath all three targets; the 27,460 stop never traded. No fill or result is asserted. The primary setup for Monday is a short from 27,480 to 27,520, a band 394.75 points above the settle and 55.00 above Friday's high, just beneath Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, stop 27,650, targets 27,350 and 27,200 above the settle and an extended 27,050 beneath it. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday; wholesale trade data is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Monday, as the calendar lists it.
Friday’s card: an open beneath every target, the band at the cash open
In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 27,280 to 27,320, stop 27,460, at Thursday's settle of 26,752.00. Its targets sat at 27,140, 26,980 and an extended 26,820. A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 27,503.21 would negate it. Friday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-11-06 settlement row, opened at 26,640.25 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, made a low of 26,366.50 and a high of 27,425.00, and settled at 27,085.25.
The order matters here. The 6:00 PM ET bar opened at 26,640.25, already 179.75 points beneath the third target. It fell to 26,366.50, 453.50 beneath that target, and its high of 26,717.00 stayed under all three. So price sat beneath every target before the band had traded. No result follows from that sequence.
The rebound took the night. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 234.25 points, the largest gain of any bar. By 3:00 AM ET the contract had traded up to 27,159.25. The 9:30 AM ET bar then opened at 27,169.00 and ran to 27,425.00, through the whole band. Its high sat 105.00 points above the band top and 35.00 beneath the stop.
The stop never traded. The 9:30 AM ET bar closed at 27,344.00, 24.00 above the band top, and the 10:00 AM ET bar closed back at 27,168.75. Two consecutive closes above 27,320, the acceptance the card defined as removing the edge, never printed. The 9:30 AM ET through 11:30 AM ET bars all traded inside the band.
After the band, the first target traded again. The 10:00 AM ET bar fell 179.75 points and held 11.25 above 27,140. The 10:30 AM ET bar reached 27,057.25. The 9:30 AM ET bar's own low of 27,037.75 also sat beneath that target; the order inside that bar is not asserted. The second target held off. From 10:00 AM ET on, the lowest print was 26,988.50 in the 12:30 PM ET bar, 8.50 points above 26,980. The third target did not trade after the band.
The settle landed between the first two targets, 54.75 points beneath 27,140 and 105.25 above 26,980. It sat 417.96 beneath the 27,503.21 invalidation level. No fill and no result are asserted.
The card's macro override named two scenarios that could lift the contract: a softer employment report that pulls yields lower, or a rebound in semiconductors. Payrolls came in at 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The ten-year yield index rose three basis points. The semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent. Neither the stop nor the 27,503.21 reference traded.
Two ranges held. The high-range case of 25,700 to 27,800 contained the whole session. So did the afternoon band of 26,200 to 27,300, against a window of 26,988.50 to 27,269.75. The most likely case of 26,000 to 27,400 and the morning band of 26,100 to 27,400 were each exceeded by 25.00 points, at the 27,425.00 high. Every miss came on the upside.
The narrower bands missed by more. The low-range case of 26,300 to 27,100 held the low, 66.50 above its bottom, and gave way by 325.00 at the top. The night band of 26,200 to 27,000, scored to 3:00 AM ET, met a window that reached 27,159.25, 159.25 above it. London's 26,300 to 27,100 met a window of 26,938.00 to 27,251.50, 151.50 over the top.
The base case, an analyst judgment, held the contract between Pivot S1 at 25,991.83 and the Pivot Point at 27,330.17, with a rebound toward the band that stalls beneath the Pivot Point. The range part held, with the low 374.67 points above Pivot S1. The stall did not. The 9:30 AM ET bar traded 94.83 points through the Pivot Point before the contract settled back beneath it.
The ranked third case printed first. It named a move beneath the 26,404.22 target price before any rebound. The 6:00 PM ET bar went 37.72 points beneath it. Pivot S1 never came into play, and the rebound that case set aside arrived by the cash open.
A 333.25 point gain inside a lower high and a lower low
The session ran low first, high second. From the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 26,366.50 and 27,159.25. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 234.25 points, from 26,623.50 to 26,857.75, and the window closed at 26,980.50. The 2:00 AM ET bar fell 129.50 on the way.
London and the early US hours firmed. From 3:00 AM ET to the cash open the contract traded between 26,938.00 and 27,251.50 and closed that window at 27,169.25. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which carried the employment report, traded between 27,043.00 and 27,191.25. It closed at 27,154.25.
Then the open. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 175.00 points to 27,344.00 and made the 27,425.00 high. The 10:00 AM ET bar gave back 179.75, from 27,348.50 to 27,168.75, the largest decline of any bar. Across the cash hours the bars held between 26,988.50 and 27,425.00.
The afternoon drifted. The 12:30 PM ET bar fell 122.75 and made the 26,988.50 low of the cash hours. The 3:30 PM ET bar fell 120.75 to 27,074.50, 10.75 beneath the 27,085.25 settle. After the cash close the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 27,107.50, 22.25 above it.
The daily bar is mixed. Friday's high sat 1,243.50 points beneath Thursday's 28,668.50 and its low 203.50 beneath Thursday's 26,570.00. Yet the settle rose 333.25, inside the lower half of Thursday's 2,098.50 point range. It finished at 67.9 percent of Friday's own range. That range, 1,058.50 points, was roughly half of Thursday's and 1.33 times the 14-day average daily range of 798.79.
The low carries its own marks. The provider publishes 26,366.50 as the one-month and 13-week low. It is the lowest low in the December contract's record since the 25,425.75 low of 04/13/26, a thinly traded early row. The 52-week and 13-week high stays at 31,616.50, with the one-month high at 31,521.00 and the 52-week low at 23,429.00.
The pivot ladder rests on that bar. Pivot R3 at 28,609.83 less Pivot S3 at 25,434.33, divided by three, returns 1,058.50. So does Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 less Pivot S2 at 25,900.42, divided by two. Three times the 26,958.92 Pivot Point less the settle gives 53,791.51. That is the sum of the high and the low within published rounding.
The week was lower. The last six settles read 28,534.00, 28,127.50, 28,305.75, 28,566.75, 26,752.00 and 27,085.25. Friday's gain recovered 333.25 of the 1,814.75 points lost on Thursday. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,448.75 points, or 5.08 percent, from the 28,534.00 settle of 10/30. The 31,616.50 52-week high of 10/06 sits 4,191.50 above Friday's high.
Resistance starts at once. The 27,095.26 conversion of the NDX 27,000 level sits 10.01 points above the settle. The 27,107.50 post-close print and the 27,128.80 projection for a 20 percent raw stochastic sit just above it. Friday's 27,425.00 high comes next. The 27,509.95 projection for a 30 percent raw stochastic, the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33 lie within 41.38 points.
Above them sit the 5-day average at 27,767.50, the one-ATR line at 27,875.88 and one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44. Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 and the 28,095.26 conversion of the NDX 28,000 key strike follow. Higher up come two deviations at 28,215.47, the 28,306.26 flip-level conversion, the 9-day crossing price at 28,364.09, three deviations at 28,469.49, the 200-day at 28,492.25 and the 9-day at 28,525.00. Pivot R3 at 28,609.83, Thursday's 28,668.50 high and the 28,770.26 threshold conversion close the ladder.
Support sits close too. The 3:30 PM ET close of 27,074.50 sits 10.75 beneath the settle. The Pivot Point at 26,958.92 sits 126.33 down, with the 26,912.54 stall of the 14-day %K line 46.38 beneath it. Thursday's 26,752.00 settle, the 26,650.05 published target price and Friday's 26,640.25 open follow.
Further down, Thursday's 26,570.00 low, the 26,556.63 38.2 percent retracement from the 52-week low and Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 lead to Friday's 26,366.50 low. Then a pair. The one-ATR line at 26,294.62 and one standard deviation support at 26,286.06 sit 8.56 apart. The 26,095.26 conversion of the NDX 26,000 key strike, two deviations at 25,955.03, Pivot S2 at 25,900.42 and three deviations at 25,701.01 are the deeper references.
The settle sits beneath every average. It sits 682.25 points beneath the 5-day at 27,767.50 and 1,407.00 beneath the 200-day at 28,492.25. The 9-day at 28,525.00 sits 1,439.75 up and the 20-day at 29,261.75 sits 2,176.50 up. The 100-day at 29,812.25 and the 50-day at 29,878.25 sit 2,727.00 and 2,793.00 up. The review computed the averages from 260 completed daily settlements and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick.
Friday is the second consecutive settle beneath the 200-day. One caveat applies. The 200-day window starts on 01/26/26 and holds 46 sessions, through 04/27/26, with no recorded volume. Those thinly traded early rows carry quoted settlement prices, so the 200-day rests on thin history. The 5-day fell 289.75 points from Thursday's 28,057.25 as the 10/30 settle of 28,534.00 left the window.
The order of the longer averages comes from their older settlements. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 30,289.50, above the 20-day, so the 20-day sits beneath the 50-day. The 50 older ones in the 100-day window averaged 29,746.25, and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 27,172.00. Both run lower. Monday's crossing price for the 9-day average is 28,364.09.
The oscillators sit low on their scales. Relative strength reads 27.87 on the 9-day, 30.59 on the 14-day and 33.60 on the 20-day. The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastics both read 18.86 percent and the 20-day 14.60 percent. The 14-day %K at 20.12 percent sits 1.93 points above %D at 18.19 percent. Sellers lead. On the 9-day, negative direction at 31.30 tops positive at 10.84 by 20.46, with the ADX at 38.82; on the 14-day, 30.68 tops 12.15 by 18.53, with the ADX at 29.83.
Historic volatility reads 39.09 percent on the 9-day and 35.03 percent on the 14-day. These readings are as published, read at 6:21 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed. The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session sits at 88 percent sell, unchanged from the prior session. Strength is described as maximum and direction as strongest. A week ago it read 56 percent sell. A month ago, 80 percent buy. The short and medium-horizon groups average 100 percent sell and the long group 33 percent sell, and the trend composite reads sell.
One average true range either side of the settle spans 26,294.62 to 27,875.88, on the 14-day figure of 790.63. The 9-day average true and daily ranges read 905.10 and 937.61, the 20-day 716.42 and 752.21. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 26,286.06 to 27,884.44, 25,955.03 to 28,215.47 and 25,701.01 to 28,469.49. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges, from 10/26, read 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50 and 1,058.50 points.
A 1.35 percent cash gain, a 4.21 percent chip rebound and a close 10.01 points under the 27,000 level
The cash market rose with the contract. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 26,989.99, up 360.18 points or 1.35 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.31 percent and the Dow industrials fell 0.46 percent. The semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent to 9,390.25, after Thursday's 12.25 percent decline. The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 9.01 percent.
Commentary filled in the picture, all of it attributed. The press wrap carried by the news feed described chipmakers rebounding as dip buyers returned despite bets on a Fed rate increase; that is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move. The provider's commentary said weakness in software shares limited Friday's gains, also attributed commentary.
Company items ran through the session, per the equities news feed. At 12:36 PM ET it carried a report that a large software company was winding down an agreement to rent artificial-intelligence computing capacity from a database company. At 1:48 PM ET it reported a search company's purchase of a data-centre site in Wyoming. At 3:59 PM ET came a report that an artificial-intelligence developer had closed an 11 billion dollar funding round at a 1.25 trillion dollar valuation.
Earlier, at 10:55 AM ET, the news feed carried the head of the International Monetary Fund saying market volatility tied to artificial intelligence was likely to continue. These are reports and remarks carried by the feed. This article ties no price move to any of them. The calendars carry no results entry for the largest companies on Monday.
Yields rose. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up three basis points. The dollar index rose 0.74 percent to 102.30. The employment situation report, released at 8:30 AM ET as the calendar lists it, showed payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. Unemployment read 4.1 percent against a forecast of 4.2 percent, per the news-feed calendar. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent on the month, per the same calendar.
In the early afternoon the news feed carried remarks from a Federal Reserve official that services inflation was not coming down as expected. The contract rose while yields rose, and no series here separates the effects. December WTI crude rose 0.34 percent to 90.83 and December gold fell 0.94 percent to 4,074.9. Each move is reported on its own. None is presented here as the cause of another.
The cash close sits right at the main positioning level. The dataset's reference prices are Thursday's closes: NDX 26,629 corresponds to Thursday's 26,629.81 cash close, QQQ 647 to the console's 647.80 and SPX 7,353 to 7,353.73. Its levels were computed before Friday's session. The dataset does not state how they shifted. Against Friday's 26,989.99 close, the index sits 10.01 points beneath 27,000, both the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base.
Overhead, the modeled gamma-flip level at 28,211 sits 1,221.01 above the close and the modeled volatility threshold at 28,675 sits 1,685.01 up. The call side ceiling at 29,675 sits 2,685.01 up. The dataset lists 27,000, 28,000, 29,000 and 26,000 as key index strikes and 26,710, 27,003, 26,310 and 27,535 as combination levels. The 26,000 key strike is the next dataset reference beneath.
Gamma tilt, a model output, reads 0.564 for the index and 0.527 for the QQQ fund proxy. Gamma notional reads minus 11.013 million dollars and minus 937.174 million. The 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.111 and minus 0.088. All are model outputs.
On the QQQ proxy the call side ceiling sits at 720, the modeled volatility threshold at 700, the modeled gamma-flip level at 697, the largest gamma concentration at 660 and the put side support base at 650. Those are proxy levels. The console, read at 6:18 PM ET, carried Thursday's 647.80 as its previous close and a console price of 656.91, up 1.41 percent. The review treats that as a console reading. Call gamma reads minus 754.18 million against put gamma of minus 805.31 million.
Call volume of 2.6 million ran against put volume of 3 million; options volume carries no direction here. One-month implied volatility reads 32.21 percent against realised volatility of 31.66 percent. The implied-volatility rank reads 100.00 percent, the skew rank 18.58 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.08.
The basis narrowed to 95.26 points, the 27,085.25 settle less the 26,989.99 cash close, from 122.19 on Thursday. The review converts five positioning levels at it. The NDX 27,000 level becomes 27,095.26, the 26,000 key strike 26,095.26 and the 28,000 key strike 28,095.26. The flip level becomes 28,306.26 and the threshold 28,770.26. The conversions are the review's own.
In the review's interpretation, a cash close 10.01 points beneath the 27,000 level places the contract at the dataset's main reference, with the 26,000 key strike the next one beneath. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. Monday's setup sells a rebound toward Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, and its band sits 384.74 points above the 27,095.26 conversion.
Activity fell. Volume came to 849,854 contracts on the 2026-11-06 row, against Thursday's 1,276,465 on the 2026-11-05 row, a figure revised from the 1,242,866 carried in Friday's outlook. Open interest reads 310,331 on that 2026-11-05 row, which Friday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 24,758 above the 285,573 on the 2026-11-04 row. Friday's open interest is not yet reported. The weekly positioning report was released after the close, and no figure from it is carried.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a short from 27,480 to 27,520. The contract settled beneath every settlement average, beneath the 200-day for a second session. The composite reads 88 percent sell with direction strongest, and negative direction leads on both directional systems. Friday's rebound left a lower high at 27,425.00. The whole band sits above that high, its bottom 55.00 points up, and 394.75 to 434.75 above the settle.
The band brackets the 27,509.95 projection for a 30 percent raw stochastic. The 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range sits 2.75 above its top and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33 sits 31.33 above it. Then the stop. At 27,650 it sits 130 points above the band top and 98.67 above Pivot R1. One standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44 sits 234.44 beyond it.
Two of the three targets sit above the settle. The first, 27,350, sits 75.00 beneath Friday's 27,425.00 high. The second, 27,200, sits 71.20 above the 27,128.80 projection for a 20 percent raw stochastic and 114.75 above the settle. Only the extended third reaches beneath it. At 27,050 it sits 35.25 under the settle and 45.26 under the 27,095.26 conversion.
The setup needs a rebound first. Price would have to rise 394.75 points, or 1.46 percent, from the settle to reach the band. No Friday bar traded there. Oscillators are stretched after the week's decline, and a rebound can run through the band at the cash open. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 27,500 midpoint the risk to the stop is 150 points, 19.0 percent of the 14-day average true range of 790.63. The targets sit 150, 300 and 450 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 130 points beneath the band bottom.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 26,750 to 27,350, its top level with the first target. The most likely case runs 26,550 to 27,600, its top 50.00 beneath the stop. The high-range case runs 26,250 to 27,900. Its top sits 15.56 above one standard deviation resistance, its bottom 36.06 beneath one deviation support.
Session by session, the review expects roughly 26,700 to 27,400 from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET, with a bias neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1. That top sits 80.00 beneath the band bottom. London follows from 3:00 AM ET at 26,750 to 27,350, with a neutral bias around the Pivot Point at 26,958.92. The morning band runs 26,600 to 27,550, with the setup band near its top. The afternoon band runs 26,600 to 27,500, its top at the band midpoint.
The reopen follows two days of weekend headline risk. Gap references run both ways. Above sit the 27,095.26 conversion, Friday's 27,425.00 high and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33. Beneath sit the Pivot Point at 26,958.92, Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 and Friday's 26,366.50 low. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Monday carries one scheduled release. Wholesale trade data is due at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. A European investor confidence survey at 4:30 AM ET and remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 8:40 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. A consumer inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 AM ET and a three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET are also listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
The scenarios are ranked. In the review's analyst judgment the base case holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33. Within it, a rebound toward the 27,425.00 to 27,551.33 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 is weighted above a recovery through it. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's interpretation the 9-day relative strength at 27.87 and a settle at 67.9 percent of Friday's range describe a stretched contract after a 1,448.75 point weekly decline. That favours a rebound attempt that is sold over an immediate extension lower, in the same interpretation.
Second comes a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44. That would invalidate this reading and could bring Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 and the 28,095.26 conversion into play. Third, a reopen beneath Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 could bring Friday's 26,366.50 low and one standard deviation support at 26,286.06 into play without the rebound the setup needs. In the review's judgment a deeper correction toward Pivot S2 at 25,900.42 is the worst-case scenario.
In the review's judgment the first-order event on Monday is the 9:30 AM ET cash open against the NDX 27,000 level, with Tuesday's inflation data the first scheduled test of rate expectations. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, as the calendar lists it, and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Monday's band sits 55.00 points above the high where Friday's rebound stopped.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Both lists are classified against the 27,085.25 settle. Monday’s band, 27,480 to 27,520, sits above the settle and above Friday’s 27,425.00 high, beneath Pivot R1 at 27,551.33.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 27,085.25 on Friday, up 333.25 or 1.25 percent from Thursday's settle of 26,752.00, after trading between 27,425.00 and 26,366.50, a 1,058.50 point daily range. The settle finished at 67.9 percent of the range, and the range was 1.33 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 798.79 points. Friday printed a lower high, 1,243.50 beneath Thursday's 28,668.50, and a lower low, 203.50 beneath Thursday's 26,570.00, yet settled higher. The 26,366.50 low is the one-month and 13-week low published by the provider, and the lowest low in the December contract's record since the 25,425.75 low of 04/13/26, a thinly traded early row. Over the week the contract fell 1,448.75 from the 28,534.00 settle of 10/30/26, a decline of 5.08 percent.
The low came at the Thursday evening reopen and the high in the first cash bar. The contract reached 26,366.50 in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Thursday, recovered through the overnight hours, and the 9:30 AM ET bar made the 27,425.00 high before the 10:00 AM ET bar fell 179.75, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 26,989.99, up 1.35 percent, and the semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent. The press wrap carried by the news feed described chipmakers rebounding as dip buyers returned despite bets on a Fed rate increase; that is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 9.01 percent, the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up three basis points, and the dollar index rose 0.74 percent to 102.30 after payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, the second consecutive settle beneath the 200-day average.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "88% SELL" with strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest", unchanged from "88% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 27,480 to 27,520 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, stopped at 27,650, with objectives at 27,350, 27,200 and an extended 27,050. Two days of weekend headline risk separate Friday's settle from the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 26,640.25 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 111.75 beneath Thursday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the low of 26,366.50 in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Thursday and the high of 27,425.00 in the 9:30 AM ET bar on Friday. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 234.25, from 26,623.50 to 26,857.75, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 26,366.50 and 27,159.25 and closed that window at 26,980.50.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 26,938.00 and 27,251.50, with the 9:00 AM ET bar closing that window at 27,169.25. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which carried the employment report, traded between 27,043.00 and 27,191.25 and closed at 27,154.25. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 175.00 to 27,344.00 and made the 27,425.00 high, and the 10:00 AM ET bar fell 179.75, from 27,348.50 to 27,168.75. Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 26,988.50 and 27,425.00; the 12:30 PM ET bar fell 122.75 and made the 26,988.50 low of that window, and the 3:30 PM ET bar fell 120.75 to 27,074.50, 10.75 beneath the 27,085.25 settle. After the cash close the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 27,107.50.
On a Friday evening Globex stays closed until the Sunday reopen, so the provider's overview page for Friday carries the completed Friday session itself, with an open of 26,640.25, a high of 27,425.00 and a low of 26,366.50. The completed range is still checked against the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 28,609.83 minus Pivot S3 at 25,434.33, divided by three, returns 1,058.50, and Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 minus Pivot S2 at 25,900.42, divided by two, returns the same 1,058.50. Three times the Pivot Point of 26,958.92 less the 27,085.25 settle gives a high plus low sum of 53,791.51, which with the 1,058.50 range solves to 27,425.005 and 26,366.505, within the ladder's published rounding of the settlement row's 27,425.00 high and 26,366.50 low; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 26,640.25 open, 27,425.00 high, 26,366.50 low and 27,085.25 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday but settled 333.25 higher, inside the lower half of Thursday's 2,098.50 point range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 28,534.00, 28,127.50, 28,305.75, 28,566.75, 26,752.00 and 27,085.25, so Friday's gain recovered 333.25 of the 1,814.75 points lost on Thursday. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,448.75 from the 28,534.00 settle of 10/30, which the provider also publishes as a 5.08 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high and 31,521.00 as the one-month high, and Friday's 26,366.50 low as the one-month and 13-week low; the 52-week low is 23,429.00. The Friday settle sits 528.62 above the 26,556.63 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 52-week low and 437.50 beneath the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/26, ran 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50 and 1,058.50, so Friday's range was roughly half of Thursday's and still above the 14-day average daily range. In the 30-minute series the largest gains came in the 7:00 PM ET bar, 234.25, and the 9:30 AM ET bar, 175.00, and the largest declines in the 10:00 AM ET bar, 179.75, the 2:00 AM ET bar, 129.50, and the 12:30 PM ET bar, 122.75.
Friday's 27,425.00 high sits 1,243.50 beneath Thursday's 28,668.50 and 4,191.50 beneath the 31,616.50 52-week high. The published grid places 28,364.09 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed and 27,509.95 as the projection for the 30 percent raw stochastic.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions from 10/28/25 through Friday; with Globex closed for the weekend there is no reopened-session row to exclude, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 200-day window includes 46 zero-volume rows from the contract's thinly traded early months, which carry quoted settlement prices; the 200-day figure is computed as published and carries that limitation. The 5-day average stands at 27,767.50, the 9-day at 28,525.00, the 20-day at 29,261.75, the 50-day at 29,878.25, the 100-day at 29,812.25 and the 200-day at 28,492.25.
The 27,085.25 settle sits 682.25 beneath the 5-day average, 1,439.75 beneath the 9-day, 2,176.50 beneath the 20-day, 2,793.00 beneath the 50-day, 2,727.00 beneath the 100-day and 1,407.00 beneath the 200-day. It is the second consecutive settle beneath the 200-day average. The 5-day average fell from Thursday's 28,057.25 as Friday's settle replaced the 10/30 settle of 28,534.00.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,289.50. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,746.25, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,172.00.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:21 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed; they are the provider's readings and were not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 27.87, the 14-day relative strength 30.59 and the 20-day relative strength 33.60.
The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastic both read 18.86 percent and the 20-day raw stochastic 14.60 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 20.12 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 18.19 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 38.82 with the 9-day +DI at 10.84 and the 9-day -DI at 31.30, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 29.83 with the 14-day +DI at 12.15 and the 14-day -DI at 30.68, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 39.09 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 35.03 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "88% SELL", with signal strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "56% SELL" a week ago and "80% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "100% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 790.63 points and the 14-day average daily range at 798.79 points; the 9-day average true range is 905.10 with a 9-day average daily range of 937.61, and the 20-day average true range is 716.42 with a 20-day average daily range of 752.21. Friday's 1,058.50 point range was 1.33 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 790.63 from the 27,085.25 settle frames Monday between 26,294.62 and 27,875.88. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 26,286.06 to 27,884.44 at one deviation, 25,955.03 to 28,215.47 at two and 25,701.01 to 28,469.49 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the weekend adds headline risk that a single-session band does not cover.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 27,085.25 settle, the first reference is the 27,095.26 conversion of the NDX 27,000 dealer-positioning key strike, with the 27,128.80 projection for the 20 percent raw stochastic above it. Friday's 27,425.00 high, the 27,509.95 projection for the 30 percent raw stochastic, the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33 form the next band. One standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44, Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 and the 28,095.26 conversion of the NDX 28,000 key strike are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 26,958.92, with the 26,912.54 stall of the 14-day %K line just beneath. The 26,650.05 published target price, the 26,556.63 retracement from the 52-week low and Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 form the next band, with Friday's 26,366.50 low and one standard deviation support at 26,286.06 beneath them. The 26,095.26 conversion of the NDX 26,000 key strike and Pivot S2 at 25,900.42 are the deeper references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Largest-Company Results and the AI Spending Cycle
The equities news feed carried items on artificial-intelligence spending through the session: at 12:36 PM ET a report that a large software company was winding down an agreement to rent artificial-intelligence computing capacity from a database company, at 1:48 PM ET a search company's purchase of a data-centre site in Wyoming, and at 3:59 PM ET a report that an artificial-intelligence developer had closed an 11 billion dollar funding round at a 1.25 trillion dollar valuation. At 10:55 AM ET the feed carried remarks from the head of the International Monetary Fund saying market volatility tied to artificial intelligence was likely to continue. These are reports and remarks carried by the feed. The calendars carry no results entry for the largest companies on Monday.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent to 9,390.25 after Thursday's 12.25 percent decline, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 1.35 percent, against the S&P 500's 0.31 percent and a 0.46 percent decline in the Dow industrials. The press wrap carried by the news feed described dip buyers returning to semiconductor shares, and the provider's commentary said weakness in software shares limited Friday's gains; both are attributed commentary. Sector-level returns beyond the semiconductor index are not carried.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The employment situation report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand and average hourly earnings up 0.4 percent on the month, per the news-feed calendar. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up three basis points, and the news feed carried in the early afternoon remarks from a Federal Reserve official that services inflation was not coming down as expected; these are remarks carried by the feed. The contract rose while yields rose, and no series here separates the effects.
4.4 Diplomacy Listing and Weekend Risk
A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Two days of weekend headline risk precede the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 9.01 percent on the session, the dollar index rose 0.74 percent to 102.30, December crude rose 0.34 percent and gold fell 0.94 percent. The cash basis, the settle less the Nasdaq-100 cash close of 26,989.99, is 95.26 points, against 122.19 on Thursday; both legs are completed-session daily records from the provider, read at 6:19 PM ET.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026 was released after the close; no figure from it is carried. Friday's December volume was 849,854 contracts on the 2026-11-06 row of the provider's settlement record, against 1,276,465 on Thursday's 2026-11-05 row, revised from the 1,242,866 carried in Friday's outlook. Friday's open interest is not yet reported; Thursday's reads 310,331 on the 2026-11-05 row.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
The dealer-positioning dataset used here, the edition timed 5:21 PM ET on Friday, uses Thursday's closes as its reference prices, not Friday's: NDX 26,629 corresponds to Thursday's 26,629.81 cash close, QQQ 647 corresponds to the console's Thursday close of 647.80, and SPX 7,353 corresponds to Thursday's 7,353.73. Thursday's 26,629.81 plus 360.18 points, a 1.35 percent gain, gives the provider's 26,989.99 Friday close, and every level below is read against that close.
On the index the call side ceiling sits at NDX 29,675, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,675, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,211 and both the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base at NDX 27,000. The close sits 2,685.01 points beneath the ceiling, 1,685.01 beneath the threshold, 1,221.01 beneath the flip level and 10.01 beneath the 27,000 level. The dataset's key strikes for NDX are 27,000, 28,000, 29,000 and 26,000, and its NDX combination levels are 26,710, 27,003, 26,310 and 27,535. Gamma tilt reads 0.564 for NDX and 0.527 for QQQ, gamma notional minus 11.013 million dollars for NDX and minus 937.174 million for QQQ, and the 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.111 for NDX and minus 0.088 for QQQ, all model outputs; the QQQ figures are proxy readings. These levels were computed from Thursday's closes, and the dataset does not state how they shifted during Friday's session.
At the measured 95.26 point basis the NDX 27,000 key strike converts to 27,095.26, the NDX 26,000 key strike to 26,095.26, the NDX 28,000 key strike to 28,095.26, the NDX 28,211 flip level to 28,306.26 and the NDX 28,675 threshold to 28,770.26. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
The QQQ console, read at 6:18 PM ET, carried Thursday's 647.80 as its previous close and a console price of 656.91, up 1.41 percent, which is a console reading rather than a settlement. On the dataset's QQQ column the call side ceiling sits at 720, the modeled volatility threshold at 700, the modeled gamma-flip level at 697, the largest gamma concentration at 660 and the put side support base at 650. The console shows call gamma of minus 754.18 million against put gamma of minus 805.31 million, call volume of 2.6 million against put volume of 3 million, a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.08, one-month implied volatility of 32.21 percent against realised volatility of 31.66 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 100.00 percent and a skew rank of 18.58 percent, all proxy readings, with options volume carrying no direction here.
In this review's interpretation a cash close 10.01 points beneath the NDX 27,000 level, which is both the largest concentration and the put side base, places the contract at the dataset's main reference, with the NDX 26,000 key strike the next dataset reference beneath. The setup in section 8 sells a rebound toward Pivot R1 at 27,551.33 rather than the 27,000 level itself. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path in section 2.1 comes from the 30-minute futures series, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex and Asia)
Globex halted at 5:00 PM ET on Friday and reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026, so two days of weekend headline risk separate Friday's settle from the reopen. Gap references run both ways: above, the 27,095.26 conversion of the NDX 27,000 key strike, Friday's 27,425.00 high and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33; beneath, the Pivot Point at 26,958.92, Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 and Friday's 26,366.50 low. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, expected band roughly 26,700 to 27,400.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
A European investor confidence survey at 4:30 AM ET on Monday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral around the Pivot Point at 26,958.92, expected band roughly 26,750 to 27,350.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, cash open)
The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of the NDX 27,000 level after Friday's close beside it, and wholesale trade data is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 8:40 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET on Monday are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 26,600 to 27,550, with the 27,480 to 27,520 setup band near the top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
A three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET on Monday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 26,600 to 27,500 ahead of Tuesday's inflation data.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The Monday evening session carries into the consumer price index scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 26,750 to 27,350; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 26,550 to 27,600; High-range scenario: 26,250 to 27,900.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 and Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, with a rebound toward the 27,425.00 to 27,551.33 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 weighted above a recovery through it. The composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strongest", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath every settlement average, while the 9-day relative strength reading of 27.87 and a settle at 67.9 percent of Friday's range describe a contract that is stretched after a 1,448.75 point weekly decline, which in this review's interpretation favours a rebound attempt that is sold rather than an immediate extension lower.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44, which would bring Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 and the 28,095.26 key-strike conversion into play. On the other side, a reopen beneath Pivot S1 at 26,492.83 would bring Friday's 26,366.50 low and one standard deviation support at 26,286.06 into play without the rebound the setup needs; a deeper correction toward Pivot S2 at 25,900.42 is the worst-case scenario in this review's judgment.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The employment situation report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent against a forecast of 4.2 percent, per the news-feed calendar. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official were scheduled for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and consumer credit rose 27.84 billion dollars against a forecast of 13.8 billion, per the news-feed calendar.
Over the weekend, Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. On Monday, November 9, 2026, wholesale trade data is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it; remarks by Federal Reserve officials, a consumer inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 AM ET and a three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The calendars carry no results entry for the largest companies on Monday.
Later in the week, the consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 on Monday is the cash open at 9:30 AM ET against the NDX 27,000 level, with Tuesday's inflation data the first scheduled test of rate expectations.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath every settlement average, beneath the 200-day for a second session, the composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strongest" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while Friday's rebound left a lower high at 27,425.00. A rebound into the 27,480 to 27,520 band, around the 27,509.95 projection and the 27,522.75 midpoint of the 52-week range and beneath Pivot R1 at 27,551.33, offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1. Oscillators are stretched after the week's decline and a rebound can run through the band at the cash open, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 27,480 to 27,520
Stop Loss: 27,650 (above Pivot R1 at 27,551.33 and beneath one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44)
Target 1 (T1): 27,350 (beneath the 27,425.00 session high)
Target 2 (T2): 27,200 (above the 27,128.80 projection for the 20 percent raw stochastic)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 27,050 (beneath the 27,085.25 settle)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 27,520.
Macro override: Two scenarios could lift the contract: a weekend report that eases concern over artificial-intelligence spending, or a further rebound in semiconductors. In either scenario a move through the 27,650 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and one standard deviation resistance at 27,884.44 becomes the reference, 234.44 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 790.63.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on November 6, 2026 for the Monday, November 9, 2026 session, which opens when Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8; its setup is the review's as published at the settle. Friday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-11-06 row, which is Friday's completed session, and match the chart's completed daily bar and the overview page. Friday's session opened at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen. Pivot R3 at 28,609.83 less Pivot S3 at 25,434.33, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 28,017.42 less Pivot S2 at 25,900.42, divided by two, both return 1,058.50, and three times the 26,958.92 Pivot Point less the settle gives 53,791.51, the sum of the 27,425.00 high and the 26,366.50 low within published rounding. Every time of day given for Friday's prices comes from the 30-minute series for Friday's session, which starts at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, read as Eastern standard-time clock labels. Friday's card was set at Thursday's settle, so it is scored over the whole Friday session from the 6:00 PM ET reopen; where two levels traded in the same 30-minute bar, the order inside that bar is not asserted. Session windows are scored over the bars that open inside each window.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 260 completed sessions, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick; 46 of the 200 sessions in the 200-day window carry no recorded volume. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at 6:21 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-11-06 row reads 849,854 contracts, and Friday's open interest is not yet reported; the 2026-11-05 row now reads 1,276,465 contracts and open interest of 310,331, where Friday's outlook carried 1,242,866 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-11-04 row reads open interest of 285,573. No weekly positioning report figure is carried. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Thursday's closes in its reference column, and its levels were computed before Friday's session; every Nasdaq futures conversion is the review's, at the 95.26 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 122.19 on Thursday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. Its levels and gamma figures, like the index model's, are model outputs; gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction, and options volume carries no direction. The fund console was read at 6:18 PM ET. Company items, reports and remarks are described per the news feed with generic descriptions; the press wrap and the provider's commentary are attributed commentary, and no move is attributed to them. Cross-asset moves are reported side by side, and none is presented as the cause of another. The volume and open-interest changes, the session-window highs and lows and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Friday outlook covers the index that rose 0.31 percent in cash on Friday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
Tuesday’s follow-up outlook for Nasdaq-100, written after Monday’s close, is here.
