At 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, fourteen hours after the reopen, the December Nasdaq-100 contract reached 28,370.00 and traded into the short band we published for Tuesday. Two of the card's targets had printed before it. The 28,201.00 open sat beneath the 28,240 first target, and the 28,100 second target traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar. The stop never traded. Tuesday's high, 28,449.50 in the 4:30 PM ET bar after the settle, stopped 70.50 points beneath it.
Then the session turned twice. The contract settled at 28,305.75, up 178.25 points or 0.63 percent, its first higher settle after three lower ones. By 10:15 PM ET the reopened Wednesday session had traded at 27,678.50, 627.25 points or 2.22 percent beneath that settle. That decline is larger than Tuesday's full 411.25 point range. Wednesday's band sits between the two prices.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 28,305.75 on Tuesday, up 178.25 points, with a lower high and a lower low, beneath every settlement average including the 200-day. Tuesday's published short band at 28,360 to 28,400 first traded in the 8:00 AM ET bar, after the 28,100 second target had traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar; two 30-minute closes above 28,400 came only after the settle, in the 4:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars. The 28,520 stop never traded; the high stopped 70.50 points beneath it. No fill or result is asserted. The primary setup for Wednesday, revised at 10:15 PM ET from the overnight trade, is a short from 27,840 to 27,880, a band beneath the settle and above the 10:15 PM ET print, around Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, stop 28,000, targets 27,720, 27,580 and an extended 27,440. The trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it.
Tuesday’s card: two targets printed before the band, and the stop stayed 70.50 points out of reach
In Tuesday’s outlook we set a short from 28,360 to 28,400, stop 28,520. Its targets sat at 28,240, 28,100 and an extended 27,960. Tuesday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-11-03 settlement row, opened at 28,201.00 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, made a high of 28,449.50 and a low of 28,038.25, and settled at 28,305.75. The open sat 159.00 points beneath the band. It also sat 39.00 beneath the first target.
The order ran backwards. The second target traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar, whose low reached 28,081.75, beneath Monday's 28,101.75 low. The session low of 28,038.25 followed in the 2:00 AM ET bar, 78.25 points above the 27,960 third target. That target never traded. Only then did the band trade. The 8:00 AM ET bar reached 28,370.00, 10.00 points into it, and the 8:30 AM ET bar topped it at 28,426.50.
After the band, 28,240 traded again in the 9:30 AM ET bar, whose low was 28,215.75. The second target did not trade again. The lowest later low sat 115.75 points above it. With the targets printing first, no fill and no result are asserted.
Then came the card's own test. Its invalidation set the rule: a touch alone leaves the edge in place, and acceptance above the band removes it, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,400. One close came early, 28,417.50 in the 10:30 AM ET bar. The next bar closed at 28,350.25. The pair arrived after the settle, with the 4:00 PM ET bar at 28,406.75 and the 4:30 PM ET bar at 28,416.00.
The stop held its distance. The cash-session high, 28,443.50 in the 11:00 AM ET bar, sat 76.50 points beneath 28,520, and the session high after the settle sat 70.50 beneath it. The settle invalidation, a settle above Pivot R1 at 28,645.25, was not close. The settle finished 339.50 points beneath it.
The card's macro override named a strong reaction to after-close results, or to the processor and graphics-chip maker's results due Tuesday, that lifts semiconductors. Its reference, the 28,637.68 threshold equivalent, did not trade; the high stopped 188.18 points beneath it. This article ties no price move to any headline.
The 30-minute series also scores each range over its own window. All seven held. The low-range case of 27,950 to 28,450 came closest to missing. Its top sat 0.50 above the 28,449.50 high, its bottom 88.25 beneath the low. The most likely case of 27,800 to 28,700 and the high-range case of 27,500 to 28,950 held with room at both ends. The night band of 27,950 to 28,450, scored from 6:00 PM ET to 3:00 AM ET, held the night's 28,038.25 low by 88.25 and its 28,284.50 high by 165.50.
London's 27,900 to 28,500, from 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, held a window of 28,104.25 to 28,275.75. The morning band of 27,850 to 28,650 held 28,215.75 to 28,443.50. From 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET the contract traded between 28,237.00 and 28,431.75, inside the afternoon band of 27,800 to 28,700.
The most probable path, an analyst judgment, held the contract between Pivot S1 at 27,855.75 and Pivot R1 at 28,645.25. It weighted a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 28,373.50 that stalls beneath the 28,488.88 retracement. The Pivot Point traded in the 8:30 AM ET bar. The high stopped 39.38 points beneath the retracement. The card's third case, a move beneath Monday's 28,101.75 low before any rebound, printed first, in the 12:30 AM ET bar. It never reached Pivot S1; the low stayed 182.50 above it.
As of 10:15 PM ET, a 627.25 point overnight decline through four pivots, and every average overhead
As of 10:15 PM ET the reopened Wednesday session had traded for four hours. Its first 30-minute bar opened at 28,410.00 at the 6:00 PM ET reopen. The high, 28,512.00, came in the 6:30 PM ET bar, 206.25 points above Tuesday's settle and 21.25 above Pivot R1 at 28,490.75. The low, 27,615.75, came in the 10:00 PM ET bar, which was still forming at 10:15 PM ET. The print then was 27,678.50. These are live-session prices, not a settle.
The decline came in steps. The 7:00 PM ET bar fell 173.50 points, the 8:00 PM ET bar 302.75 and the 9:00 PM ET bar 77.50. Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 first traded in the 7:30 PM ET bar. Tuesday's 28,038.25 low and Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 gave way in the 8:00 PM ET bar, and Pivot S3 at 27,668.25 in the 10:00 PM ET bar. The low traded 9.74 points beneath the 27,625.49 conversion of the NDX 27,500 put side support base. The print sits 53.01 above it.
The decline measured 627.25 points, or 2.22 percent, 216.00 more than Tuesday's full range. The print sits 12.14 points beneath the one-ATR line at 27,690.64 and 192.41 above one standard deviation support at 27,486.09. Projections of US election results carried by the news feed, between 8:16 PM ET and 9:11 PM ET, coincided in time with the 8:00 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars. The series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
Wednesday's band sits on ground the contract had already crossed. The 8:00 PM ET, 8:30 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars all traded inside 27,840 to 27,880, and the 9:30 PM ET bar's 27,805.00 high stayed 35.00 points beneath it. The review revised the setup at 10:15 PM ET from that trade. The band's bottom sits 161.50 points above the print. Its top sits 425.75 beneath the settle.
The basis narrowed to 125.49 points, the 28,305.75 settle less the 28,180.26 cash close, from 137.68 on Monday. The review converts five positioning levels at it. The NDX 27,500 put side support base becomes 27,625.49 and the NDX 28,000 key strike 28,125.49. The modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,540 becomes 28,665.49, and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,556 becomes 28,681.49. The largest gamma concentration at NDX 29,000 becomes 29,125.49. The conversions are the review's own.
Resistance starts close to the settle. The 28,416.00 post-settlement print sits 110.25 points up and Tuesday's 28,449.50 high 143.75 up. Three references then sit within 16.25 points: the 200-day average at 28,474.50, the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88 and Pivot R1 at 28,490.75. The 28,512.00 overnight high sits just above them. Friday's 28,534.00 settle, the close of the week of October 26, comes next. The threshold equivalent at 28,665.49, Pivot R2 at 28,675.75 and the flip equivalent at 28,681.49 sit within 16.00.
Higher up sit Monday's 28,891.25 high, the 5-day average at 28,901.75 and Pivot R3 at 28,902.00, 10.75 points apart end to end. The one-ATR line at 28,920.86 sits just above them. The 9-day crossing price at 29,109.47, one standard deviation resistance at 29,125.41 and the 29,125.49 concentration equivalent follow; the last two sit 0.08 apart. Two and three standard deviations resistance at 29,464.93 and 29,725.45 close the ladder. Beyond it sit the 20-day at 29,815.50, the 100-day at 29,908.75, the 50-day at 30,013.00 and the 30,178.00 high of the week of October 26. The 31,616.50 52-week high caps the list, 3,310.75 points or 10.47 percent up.
Support near the settle traded overnight, all of it. The Pivot Point at 28,264.50 sits 41.25 points down, then the 28,232.75 low of the week of October 26 and Tuesday's 28,201.00 open. Monday's 28,127.50 settle and the 28,125.49 key strike equivalent sit 2.01 apart. Monday's 28,101.75 low, Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 and Tuesday's 28,038.25 low follow. The 27,957.75 crossover stall level, the published target price at 27,897.56 and Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 are deeper. By 10:15 PM ET each sat above the market.
Beneath the print the list is short. The one-ATR line at 27,690.64 sits 12.14 points above the print and Pivot S3 at 27,668.25 10.25 beneath it. The 27,625.49 put-base equivalent and the 27,615.75 overnight low follow. Then come the 50 percent retracement of the 52-week range at 27,522.75, the 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26 and one standard deviation support at 27,486.09, three references within 36.66 points. Two and three deviations at 27,146.57 and 26,886.05 are the extended references.
Every average sits overhead. The settle sits 168.75 points beneath the 200-day at 28,474.50, its second consecutive settle beneath it. It sits 596.00 beneath the 5-day at 28,901.75 and 1,509.75 beneath the 20-day at 29,815.50. The 100-day at 29,908.75 sits 1,603.00 up and the 50-day at 30,013.00 1,707.25 up. The review computed the averages from 259 completed daily settlements and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick.
One caveat sits under the 200-day. In its window, 49 of the 200 sessions, from 01/21/26 to 04/27/26, carry no recorded volume. They are thinly traded deferred-contract records. So the 200-day is a rougher reference than the shorter averages. The 5-day fell from 29,203.00 as the 10/27 settle of 29,812.00 left the window, the 20-day from 29,974.50 as the 10/06 settle of 31,483.25 left, and the 200-day rose from 28,462.00.
The order of the longer averages comes from their older settlements. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 30,144.66, higher than the 20-day, so the 20-day sits beneath the 50-day. The 50 older ones in the 100-day window averaged 29,804.41 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 27,040.34. Wednesday's 9-day crossing price is 29,109.47, 803.72 points above the settle.
Momentum sits low on its scale. Relative strength reads 30.49 on the 9-day, 34.00 on the 14-day and 37.34 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 12.50 percent on the 9-day and 12.23 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 8.14 percent sits 7.52 points beneath %D at 15.66 percent. Sellers lead both windows. On the 9-day, negative direction at 34.11 tops positive at 11.37 by 22.74, with the ADX at 38.31; on the 14-day, 32.22 tops 13.00 by 19.22, with the ADX at 28.13. Historic volatility reads 25.83 percent and 24.78 percent. These readings are as published, read at 6:29 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen, and may already reflect the reopened session's price.
A composite multi-indicator read published for Wednesday sits at 88 percent sell, with strength described as strong and direction as strengthening, against 72 percent sell in the prior session's snapshot. The trend composite reads sell. A week ago the read was 16 percent sell. A month ago, 88 percent buy. The short-horizon and medium-horizon groups average 100 percent sell and the long group 33 percent sell.
Tuesday's bar finished in the upper part of its range. The open at 28,201.00 sat 73.50 points above Monday's settle, and the settle finished 143.75 beneath the high and 267.50 above the low, at 65.0 percent of the range. The high sat 441.75 points beneath Monday's and the low 63.50 beneath Monday's. The 411.25 point range was 0.64 times the 14-day average daily range of 640.05. The 14-day average true range stands at 615.11 points; the 9-day figures are 656.99 and 641.72 and the 20-day figures 586.38 and 594.97.
One average true range either side of the settle spans 27,690.64 to 28,920.86. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 27,486.09 to 29,125.41, 27,146.57 to 29,464.93 and 26,886.05 to 29,725.45. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 385.50, 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50 and 411.25 points. The settlement changes over those sessions net to minus 1,369.50. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,506.25 points from the 29,812.00 settle of 10/27.
Four-hour bars climbed through the day. They closed at 28,214.75, 28,103.50, 28,236.25, 28,285.75, 28,389.25 and 28,416.00. The one that opened at 10:00 AM ET gained 103.25 points from 28,286.00. The 2:00 PM ET bar made the session high after the settle. Earlier, the 8:00 AM ET 30-minute bar rose 129.00, from 28,227.75 to 28,356.75.
A 0.68 percent cash gain, a 2.63 percent chip rally and results after Tuesday’s close
Technology led on Tuesday. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,180.26, up 190.44 points or 0.68 percent, and the semiconductor index rose 2.63 percent to 10,600.40. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.36 percent and the Dow industrials fell 0.38 percent, the reverse of Monday's pattern. The news feed's market wrap described a revival in the artificial-intelligence trade on Election Day, per the news feed.
Results came after the bell. A processor and graphics-chip maker reported after the cash close on Tuesday, as the calendar lists it, for the date only. The news feed carried revenue of 13.38 billion dollars against an estimate of 13.08 billion and adjusted earnings of 2.09 dollars a share against 1.97. The 4:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars coincided with those results, closing at 28,406.75 and 28,416.00. The series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
Other items ran through the day. At 7:48 AM ET the feed carried a press report that an AI-chip designer asked data-centre clients to reduce China exposure, per the news feed and unconfirmed. Bond supply followed. A 9:30 AM ET press report described a bond sale of at least 20 billion dollars by a large internet-platform company, per the news feed and unconfirmed. At 1:50 PM ET a press report said US officials had held up approval of chipmaking equipment for a Korean memory maker's China expansion, per the news feed. At 2:05 PM ET a consumer-electronics maker opened its AI assistant preview to developers, per the news feed, unconfirmed. This article ties no price move to any of them.
Yields rose. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.95 percent, against 4.89 percent on Monday, and the news feed's wrap described bonds falling on Election Day, per the news feed. The JOLTS report, released at 10:00 AM ET as the calendar lists it, showed 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million, per the news feed. Factory orders, released at the same time, rose 1.8 percent against 1.2 percent, per the news feed.
Reports on US and Iran talks ran through the session in the news feed. It carried at 8:26 AM ET a regional press report of concessions in the talks, and at 10:14 AM ET and 10:16 AM ET Iranian state media rejecting reports that a deal was close. These are reports carried by the feeds, not confirmed events, and no move is attributed to them.
Elsewhere, December WTI crude fell 0.38 percent to 96.09 and December gold fell 0.74 percent. The dollar index's daily record rose to 101.87 from 101.75. The volatility index closed at 20.83 against 21.15. Each move is reported on its own. None is presented here as the cause of another, or of the index's gain.
The cash close sits between the positioning lines. The dataset's reference prices are Monday's closes: NDX 27,989 corresponds to Monday's 27,989.82 cash close, and QQQ 681 to the fund console's previous close of 681.09. Against Tuesday's 28,180.26 close, the index sits 680.26 points above the 27,500 put side support base. It sits 359.74 beneath the 28,540 modeled volatility threshold and 375.74 beneath the 28,556 modeled gamma-flip level. The largest gamma concentration at 29,000 sits 819.74 up, and the call side ceiling at 29,675 sits 1,494.74 up. The index model's gamma tilt reads 0.706, its gamma notional minus 8.285 million dollars and its 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.075, all model outputs. The dataset lists 29,000, 28,000, 30,000 and 27,500 as key index strikes.
On the QQQ proxy the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base both sit at 680, the modeled gamma-flip level at 716, the modeled volatility threshold at 723 and the call side ceiling at 760. Those are proxy levels. The fund's gamma notional reads minus 1.101 billion dollars and its gamma tilt 0.498, proxy model outputs. The console, read at 6:17 PM ET, carried Monday's 681.09 as its previous close and a console price of 688.05, up 1.02 percent. The review treats that as a console reading. Call gamma reads minus 372.64 million against put gamma of minus 1.77 billion. One-month implied volatility reads 26.89 percent against realised volatility of 22.48 percent, 4.41 points apart. The implied-volatility rank reads 81.71 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.23.
In the review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, a cash close beneath the modeled gamma-flip level with gamma notional negative on both describes an environment in which dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes, and no directional read is drawn from options volume or modeled gamma. Wednesday's band sits beneath the 28,665.49 threshold equivalent and above the 27,625.49 put-base equivalent.
Activity eased. Volume came to 643,657 contracts on the 2026-11-03 row, against Monday's 759,285 on the 2026-11-02 row, a figure revised from the 739,966 carried in Tuesday's outlook. Open interest reads 294,957 on that 2026-11-02 row, which Tuesday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 2,016 above the 292,941 on the 2026-10-30 row. Tuesday's open interest is not yet reported. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
The trade map for Wednesday
The primary setup is a short from 27,840 to 27,880, revised at 10:15 PM ET from the overnight trade. The composite moved to 88 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the cash index closed beneath the modeled gamma-flip level. The whole band sits beneath Tuesday's settle and above the 10:15 PM ET print. Its top sits 425.75 points beneath the settle, its bottom 161.50 above the print. It brackets Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, 13.25 above its bottom and 26.75 beneath its top.
Then the stop. At 28,000 it sits 120 points above the band top and 42.25 above the 27,957.75 crossover stall level. It also sits beneath the settle, by 305.75, beneath Tuesday's 28,038.25 low, by 38.25, and beneath Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, by 79.50. The published target price at 27,897.56 sits between the band and the stop. The first target, 27,720, sits 41.50 above the print and 51.75 above Pivot S3. The second, 27,580, sits 35.75 beneath the 27,615.75 overnight low and 45.49 beneath the put-base equivalent. Then the extended third. At 27,440 it sits 46.09 beneath one standard deviation support at 27,486.09.
The setup needs a rebound into the band from the overnight trade. An overnight decline of 2.22 percent can produce a sharp rebound at the cash open, so the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot S2 are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 27,860 midpoint the risk to the stop is 140 points, 22.8 percent of the 14-day average true range of 615.11. The targets sit 140, 280 and 420 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 120 points beneath the band bottom and 585.75 beneath the settle. The second sits 98.50 beneath the print. The third sits 238.50 beneath it.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment, revised at 10:15 PM ET. The low-range case runs 27,550 to 27,900, the most likely 27,400 to 28,000 and the high-range case 27,150 to 28,250. That last top sits 14.50 beneath the Pivot Point, its bottom 3.43 above two standard deviations support. For the rest of the night session, to 3:00 AM ET, the review expects roughly 27,550 to 27,900, with a bias lower beneath Pivot S2. That top sits 20.00 above the band top and 100.00 beneath the stop.
London follows from 3:00 AM ET at 27,500 to 27,950, with the same bias; European services surveys are listed between 3:50 AM ET and 4:30 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The morning band runs 27,400 to 28,000. The setup band sits in its upper half, and the band's top sits at the stop. The afternoon band runs 27,350 to 28,080, its top 80.00 above the stop and 0.50 above Pivot S1.
Wednesday's calendar starts early. The private payrolls estimate is listed for 8:15 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The cash session opens at 9:30 AM ET. The services purchasing managers' survey is listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The calendar lists a mobile-chip designer's results for Wednesday, November 4, for the date only. Later in the week it lists preliminary productivity and costs at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, and the employment situation report at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6.
The scenarios are ranked. In the review's analyst judgment, revised at 10:15 PM ET, the base case holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 and Pivot S1 at 28,079.50. Within it, a rebound toward Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 that stalls beneath Pivot S1 is weighted above a recovery through Tuesday's 28,038.25 low. No measured frequency backs it. A decline larger than Tuesday's full range leaves room for a rebound at the cash open.
Second comes a settle above Pivot S1, which could bring the Pivot Point at 28,264.50 back into play. Third, a move beneath one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 before any rebound could bring two standard deviations support at 27,146.57 into play without the rebound the setup needs. The band would stay untraded. In the review's judgment the first-order event on Wednesday is the cash open at 9:30 AM ET, the first cash session after the processor and graphics-chip maker's results and the overnight decline.
Wednesday's band sits between Tuesday's settle, 425.75 points above its top, and the 10:15 PM ET print, 161.50 points beneath its bottom.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Wednesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Both lists are classified against the 28,305.75 settle. As of 10:15 PM ET the contract traded at 27,678.50, so every support level down to Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 then sat above the market.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,305.75 on Tuesday, up 178.25 or 0.63 percent from Monday's settle of 28,127.50, after trading between 28,449.50 and 28,038.25, a 411.25 point daily range. The settle finished at 65.0 percent of the range, and the range was 0.64 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 640.05 points. Tuesday's high sat 441.75 beneath Monday's 28,891.25 and its low 63.50 beneath Monday's 28,101.75, a lower high and a lower low, and Tuesday was the first higher settle after three lower settles. The 28,038.25 low is the lowest since the 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26, and the provider publishes it as the one-month and 13-week low.
The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,180.26, up 190.44 points or 0.68 percent, and the semiconductor index rose 2.63 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 0.36 percent and the Dow industrials fell 0.38 percent. The news feed's market wrap described a revival in the artificial-intelligence trade on Election Day, per the news feed. A processor and graphics-chip maker reported after the cash close with revenue of 13.38 billion dollars against an estimate of 13.08 billion and adjusted earnings of 2.09 dollars a share against 1.97, per the news feed. Separately, the contract traded at 28,416.00 in the 4:30 PM ET bar, 110.25 above the settle.
The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages; it is 168.75 beneath the 200-day and the second consecutive settle beneath it. The cash close sits 375.74 points beneath the dataset's modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,556 and 680.26 points above its put side support base at NDX 27,500.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Wednesday is "88% SELL" with strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening", against "72% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8, revised at 10:15 PM ET after the overnight decline, is a short from the 27,840 to 27,880 band around Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, stopped at 28,000, with objectives at 27,720, 27,580 and an extended 27,440.
Overnight update, 10:15 PM ET Tuesday. The reopened Globex session for Wednesday traded from a 28,512.00 high in the 6:30 PM ET bar to a 27,615.75 low in the 10:00 PM ET bar, and the contract traded at 27,678.50 as of 10:15 PM ET, 627.25 or 2.22 percent beneath Tuesday's settle, a move larger than Tuesday's full 411.25 point range. The decline took the contract through Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, Tuesday's 28,038.25 low, Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 and Pivot S3 at 27,668.25, to a low 9.74 points beneath the 27,625.49 conversion of the NDX 27,500 put side support base; the 27,678.50 print sits 53.01 above that conversion. The 7:00 PM ET bar fell 173.50, the 8:00 PM ET bar 302.75 and the 9:00 PM ET bar 77.50. Projections of US election results carried by the news feed, between 8:16 PM ET and 9:11 PM ET, coincided in time with the 8:00 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars. These are projections carried by the news feed, not certified results, and the series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
The forecast and setup levels below were set at 10:15 PM ET from the overnight trade, and every Tuesday measurement in this review is unchanged.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Tuesday session opened at 28,201.00 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 73.50 above Monday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the low of 28,038.25 in the 2:00 AM ET bar and the high of 28,449.50 in the 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settle. Through the overnight hours and into the 9:00 AM ET bar the 30-minute closes held between 28,093.75 and 28,356.75; the 8:00 AM ET bar rose 129.00 from its 28,227.75 open to 28,356.75.
From the 9:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the 30-minute bars stayed between 28,215.75 and 28,443.50, with the 10:30 AM ET bar closing at 28,417.50 and the 2:30 PM ET bar at 28,261.50, and the contract settled at 28,305.75. After the settle the 4:00 PM ET bar closed at 28,406.75 and the 4:30 PM ET bar at 28,416.00, the post-settlement print; The processor and graphics-chip maker's results, carried by the news feed after the cash close, coincided with those two bars. The series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Wednesday, so Tuesday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 28,902.00 minus Pivot S3 at 27,668.25, divided by three, returns 411.25, and Pivot R2 at 28,675.75 minus Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, divided by two, returns the same 411.25. Three times the Pivot Point of 28,264.50 less the 28,305.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 56,487.75, which solves to a high of 28,449.50 and a low of 28,038.25; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 28,201.00 open, 28,449.50 high, 28,038.25 low and 28,305.75 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Tuesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Monday but settled higher. Settlements over the last eight sessions read 29,117.75, 29,437.25, 29,812.00, 29,979.50, 29,562.00, 28,534.00, 28,127.50 and 28,305.75, so Tuesday's 178.25 gain followed declines of 417.50, 1,028.00 and 406.50. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,506.25 from the 29,812.00 settle of 10/27.
The weekly bar for the week of October 26 spanned 30,178.00 to 28,232.75 and settled at 28,534.00. The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, and the settle sits 10.47 percent beneath it.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The four-hour bars for Tuesday's session, read from the chart, show the 6:00 PM ET bar closing at 28,214.75 and the 10:00 PM ET bar at 28,103.50. The 2:00 AM ET bar held the session low and closed at 28,236.25, the 6:00 AM ET bar at 28,285.75 and the 10:00 AM ET bar at 28,389.25, 103.25 above its 28,286.00 open. The 2:00 PM ET bar made the session high after the settle and closed at 28,416.00.
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/21, ran 385.50, 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50 and 411.25. The published grid places the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88 and the price that would cross the 9-day average at 29,109.47.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/24/25 through Tuesday; the partial row of the reopened Wednesday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The early part of the 200-session window consists of thinly traded deferred-contract records: 49 of the 200 sessions, from 01/21/26 to 04/27/26, carry no recorded volume, so the 200-day average is a rougher reference than the shorter averages. The 5-day average stands at 28,901.75, the 20-day at 29,815.50, the 50-day at 30,013.00, the 100-day at 29,908.75 and the 200-day at 28,474.50.
The 28,305.75 settle sits 596.00 beneath the 5-day average, 1,509.75 beneath the 20-day, 1,707.25 beneath the 50-day, 1,603.00 beneath the 100-day and 168.75 beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell from Monday's 29,203.00 as Tuesday's settle replaced the 10/27 settle of 29,812.00, the 20-day fell from 29,974.50 as the 10/06 settle of 31,483.25 left the window, and the 200-day rose from 28,462.00.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,144.66. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,804.41, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,040.34.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:29 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings and were not computed here, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 30.49, the 14-day relative strength 34.00 and the 20-day relative strength 37.34.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 12.50 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 12.23 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 8.14 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 15.66 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 38.31 with the 9-day +DI at 11.37 and the 9-day -DI at 34.11; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 28.13 with the 14-day +DI at 13.00 and the 14-day -DI at 32.22, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 25.83 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 24.78 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Wednesday session is "88% SELL", with signal strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening", and the trend composite reads "SELL". The snapshot history reads "72% SELL" for the prior session, "16% SELL" a week ago and "88% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "100% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 615.11 points and the 14-day average daily range at 640.05 points; the 9-day average true range is 656.99 with a 9-day average daily range of 641.72, and the 20-day average true range is 586.38 with a 20-day average daily range of 594.97. Tuesday's 411.25 point range was 0.64 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 615.11 from the 28,305.75 settle frames Wednesday between 27,690.64 and 28,920.86. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 27,486.09 to 29,125.41 at one deviation, 27,146.57 to 29,464.93 at two and 26,886.05 to 29,725.45 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 28,305.75 settle, the first reference is the 28,416.00 post-settlement print. The 200-day average at 28,474.50, the 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low and Pivot R1 at 28,490.75 form the next band, with the 28,512.00 overnight high and Friday's 28,534.00 settle just above. The 28,665.49 conversion of the dataset's NDX 28,540 modeled volatility threshold, Pivot R2 at 28,675.75 and the 28,681.49 conversion of the NDX 28,556 modeled gamma-flip level are the extended references, with Monday's 28,891.25 high, the 5-day average at 28,901.75, Pivot R3 at 28,902.00 and the one-ATR line at 28,920.86 beyond. As of 10:15 PM ET the overnight session traded beneath Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 and Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, so both now sit above the market.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the Pivot Point at 28,264.50, the 28,232.75 low of the week of October 26 and the 28,125.49 conversion of the dataset's NDX 28,000 key strike. Tuesday's 28,201.00 open, Monday's 28,127.50 settle, Monday's 28,101.75 low, Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, Tuesday's 28,038.25 low and the 27,957.75 crossover stall level form the next band. The published target price at 27,897.56 and Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 are the deeper references, with the one-ATR line at 27,690.64, Pivot S3 at 27,668.25 and the 27,625.49 conversion of the NDX 27,500 put side support base beyond. As of 10:15 PM ET the overnight session had traded to 27,615.75, beneath Pivot S3 at 27,668.25 and 9.74 beneath the 27,625.49 conversion; against the 27,678.50 print, the 27,625.49 conversion, the 27,615.75 overnight low, the 27,522.75 retracement of the 52-week range, the 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26 and one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 are the active references beneath the market.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Largest-Company Results and the AI Spending Cycle
The processor and graphics-chip maker's results were released after the cash close on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only; the news feed carried revenue of 13.38 billion dollars against 13.08 billion and adjusted earnings of 2.09 dollars against 1.97. Earlier the feed carried a press report at 7:48 AM ET that an AI-chip designer asked data-centre clients to reduce China exposure, a 9:30 AM ET press report of a bond sale of at least 20 billion dollars by a large internet-platform company, and a consumer-electronics maker opening its AI assistant preview to developers at 2:05 PM ET, per the news feed and unconfirmed. These are items carried by the feeds.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index rose 2.63 percent to 10,600.40 and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 0.68 percent while the Dow industrials fell 0.38 percent, the reverse of Monday's pattern. A press report at 1:50 PM ET said US officials had held up approval of chipmaking equipment for a Korean memory maker's China expansion, per the news feed.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The ten-year yield index closed at 4.95 percent; Monday's close was 4.89 percent. The dollar index closed at 101.87 against 101.75. The JOLTS report, released at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists it, showed 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million, per the news feed. The news feed's wrap described bonds falling on Election Day, per the news feed.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 8:26 AM ET a regional press report of concessions in US and Iran talks, at 10:14 AM ET and 10:16 AM ET Iranian state media rejecting reports that a deal was close. These are reports carried by the news feed, not confirmed events. Separately, December WTI crude settled at 96.09, down 0.38 percent; no move is attributed to these reports.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed at 20.83; Monday's close was 21.15. The futures settled 125.49 points above the cash close, against 137.68 on Monday, both measured as the December settle less the provider's cash close for the same session. Gold's December contract fell 0.74 percent.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
Open interest on the December contract stood at 294,957 on Monday, the 2026-11-02 row of the provider's settlement record, and Tuesday's open interest is not yet reported. Tuesday's December volume was 643,657 contracts on the 2026-11-03 row against 759,285 on Monday's 2026-11-02 row, revised from the 739,966 carried in Tuesday's outlook. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
This review uses the QQQ fund and the Nasdaq-100 index columns of the dealer-positioning dataset as the positioning proxy for the December contract; the dataset tracks the index and the fund, and the futures translation below is this review's. The dataset read for this section uses Monday's closes as its reference prices: NDX 27,989 corresponds to Monday's 27,989.82 cash close and QQQ 681 corresponds to the fund console's previous close of 681.09. Monday's 27,989.82 plus 190.44 points, a 0.68 percent gain, gives the provider's 28,180.26 close, and every level below is read against that close.
On the index the put side support base sits at NDX 27,500, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,540, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,556, the largest gamma concentration at NDX 29,000 and the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675. The close sits 680.26 points above the put side base, 359.74 beneath the threshold, 375.74 beneath the flip level, 819.74 beneath the concentration and 1,494.74 beneath the ceiling. Gamma tilt reads 0.706, gamma notional minus 8.285 million dollars and the 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.075, all model outputs. The dataset's key index strikes are 29,000, 28,000, 30,000 and 27,500. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
On the fund the largest gamma concentration and the put side support base both sit at 680, the modeled gamma-flip level at 716, the modeled volatility threshold at 723 and the call side ceiling at 760. Fund gamma notional reads minus 1.101 billion dollars with a gamma tilt of 0.498, proxy model outputs. The QQQ console, read at 6:17 PM ET, carried Monday's 681.09 as its previous close and a console price of 688.05, up 1.02 percent, which is a console reading rather than a cash close. The console shows call gamma of minus 372.64 million against put gamma of minus 1.77 billion, one-month implied volatility of 26.89 percent against realised volatility of 22.48 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 81.71 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.23.
At the measured basis of 125.49 points the NDX 27,500 base converts to 27,625.49, the NDX 28,000 key strike to 28,125.49, the NDX 28,540 threshold to 28,665.49, the NDX 28,556 flip level to 28,681.49 and the NDX 29,000 concentration to 29,125.49. In this review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, a cash close beneath the modeled gamma-flip level, with gamma notional negative on both the index and the fund, describes an environment in which dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them, with the 28,665.49 to 28,681.49 conversions as the first dataset references above the settle; gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex and Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET and, as of 10:15 PM ET, had traded from the 28,512.00 high in the 6:30 PM ET bar to the 27,615.75 low in the 10:00 PM ET bar while the news feed carried projections of US election results. Bias lower beneath Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, expected band for the rest of the session roughly 27,550 to 27,900.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)
From 3:00 AM ET European trading opens with European services surveys listed between 3:50 AM ET and 4:30 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, expected band roughly 27,500 to 27,950.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, RTH Open)
The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of the overnight decline, after the trade report at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it; the services purchasing managers' survey is listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 27,400 to 28,000, with the 27,840 to 27,880 setup band in the upper half.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Wednesday)
The cash close at 4:00 PM ET sets the reference before the mobile-chip designer's results due on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only. Expected band roughly 27,350 to 28,080.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)
The Wednesday evening session opens at 6:00 PM ET after the mobile-chip designer's results, listed for the date only. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 27,550 to 27,900; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 27,400 to 28,000; High-range scenario: 27,150 to 28,250.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, revised at 10:15 PM ET, the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 and Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, with a rebound toward Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 that stalls beneath Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 weighted above a recovery through Tuesday's 28,038.25 low. The overnight session traded beneath Pivot S3 at 27,668.25, the composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strengthening" and the cash index closed beneath the modeled gamma-flip level, while an overnight decline larger than Tuesday's full range leaves room for a rebound at the cash open.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, which would bring the Pivot Point at 28,264.50 back into play. On the other side, a move beneath one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 before any rebound would bring two standard deviations support at 27,146.57 into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Wednesday Economic Calendar
Tuesday's releases are complete. The JOLTS report and factory orders, both released at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists it, came in at 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million and a 1.8 percent rise in orders against 1.2 percent, per the news feed. The processor and graphics-chip maker's results were released after the cash close on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and the midterm elections took place on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, the trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, and a mobile-chip designer's results are due the same day, as the calendar lists them, for the date only. The private payrolls estimate is listed for 8:15 AM ET and the services purchasing managers' survey for 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the week, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026 and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 on Wednesday is the cash open at 9:30 AM ET, the first cash session after the processor and graphics-chip maker's results and the projections of US election results carried by the news feed overnight, after the overnight session traded beneath Pivot S3 at 27,668.25.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The overnight session traded through Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 and Pivot S3 at 27,668.25, the composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strengthening", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the cash index closed beneath the modeled gamma-flip level. A rebound into the 27,840 to 27,880 band around Pivot S2 offers a short with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 28,079.50. An overnight decline of 2.22 percent can produce a sharp rebound at the cash open, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot S2 are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 27,840 to 27,880
Stop Loss: 28,000 (above the 27,957.75 crossover stall level and beneath Pivot S1 at 28,079.50)
Target 1 (T1): 27,720 (above Pivot S3 at 27,668.25)
Target 2 (T2): 27,580 (beneath the 27,625.49 conversion of the NDX 27,500 put side support base)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 27,440 (beneath one standard deviation support at 27,486.09)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 27,880.
Macro override: A rebound in semiconductors at the cash open after a chipmaker's quarterly results, or a reversal of the overnight selling, could support the index. In that scenario a move through the 28,000 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Pivot S1 at 28,079.50 becomes the reference, 79.50 beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 615.11.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Tuesday's close on November 3, 2026 for the Wednesday, November 4, 2026 session, with its setup and forecast revised at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday from the reopened session. Tuesday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-11-03 row, and match the chart's completed daily bar; the partial 2026-11-04 row of the reopened Wednesday session is excluded from every count and average. Tuesday's session opened at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The overview's open, high and low already belong to the session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, so Tuesday's range comes from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 28,902.00 less Pivot S3 at 27,668.25, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 28,675.75 less Pivot S2 at 27,853.25, divided by two, both return 411.25, and three times the 28,264.50 Pivot Point less the settle gives 56,487.75, the sum of the 28,449.50 high and the 28,038.25 low. Every time of day given for Tuesday's prices comes from the 30-minute series for Tuesday's session, which starts at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, read as Eastern standard-time clock labels; session windows are scored over the bars that open inside each window. Overnight prices come from the 30-minute series of the reopened Wednesday session to 10:15 PM ET; they are live-session prints, not settlements, and the 10:00 PM ET bar was still forming at 10:15 PM ET.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick; 49 of the 200 sessions in the 200-day window carry no recorded volume. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at 6:29 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-11-03 row reads 643,657 contracts, and Tuesday's open interest is not yet reported; the 2026-11-02 row now reads 759,285 contracts and open interest of 294,957, where Tuesday's outlook carried 739,966 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-10-30 row reads open interest of 292,941. No weekly positioning report figure is carried. The S&P 500 cash change is computed from the provider's closes, 7,541.40 to 7,568.92, a rise of 0.36 percent. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Monday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is the review's conversion at the 125.49 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 137.68 on Monday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. The reading that dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them is the review's interpretation from the index model and that proxy, both model outputs, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction; the fund console was read at 6:17 PM ET. Company results are dated by the calendar and described per the news feed; descriptions of the session from the news feed are attributed commentary, and projections of US election results carried by the news feed are described only as coinciding in time with the overnight bars. Cross-asset moves are reported side by side, and none is presented as the cause of another. The volume and open-interest changes, the session-window highs and lows and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed.
Tuesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Tuesday outlook covers the index that rose 0.36 percent in cash on Tuesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
