At 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, December gold reached 3,981.7, its high for the session. That print stopped 18.3 points beneath the 4,000 to 4,010 short band we set for the day. The band never traded. The contract settled at 3,940.4 at 1:30 PM ET, down 29.2 points, or 0.74 percent, from Monday's 3,969.6.
Tuesday made a higher high and a higher low against Monday, yet the settle gave back 29.2 of Monday's 70.7 gain. The dollar index firmed to 101.87 and silver fell 2.23 percent. As of 10:15 PM ET the reopened Wednesday session had traded between 3,928.2 and 3,974.4 and printed 3,948.4. Wednesday's primary setup is another short, from 3,975 to 3,985, around Pivot R1 at 3,980.0. It sits above both the settle and that print.
December gold settled at 3,940.4 on Tuesday, down 29.2, after a 3,904.1 to 3,981.7 range. Every settlement average sits above the settle, from the 5-day at 3,978.4 to the 200-day at 4,583.6. The primary setup for Wednesday is a short from 3,975 to 3,985, with the 5-day average, Pivot R1 and Tuesday's high inside the band, stop 4,005, and targets 3,955, 3,930 and an extended 3,905. The band sits above both the settle and the 3,948.4 print at 10:15 PM ET; the 3,974.4 overnight high sat 0.6 beneath it. Target 1 sits above the settle and the print; Target 2 sits beneath both. The composite reads "88% SELL" with strength "Strong". The trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, as the calendar lists it.
Tuesday's 3,981.7 high stopped 18.3 points beneath the 4,000 to 4,010 band
In Tuesday’s outlook we set a short from 4,000 to 4,010, stop 4,030, with targets at 3,980, 3,955 and an extended 3,930. Its status line put the contract at 3,969.6 at the Monday settle, 30.4 points beneath the band. Tuesday's bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-03 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 3,960.5 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen. It marked a low of 3,904.1 and a high of 3,981.7 and settled at 3,940.4.
The bars give the order. Through the overnight hours the 30-minute closes eased from 3,967.8 in the 7:30 PM ET bar to 3,905.8 in the 3:30 AM ET bar. The low of 3,904.1 came in the 4:00 AM ET bar. From the 7:00 AM ET bar the closes rose, and the 8:30 AM ET bar made the 3,981.7 high. That was as close as the session came. The high sat 18.3 beneath the 4,000 band bottom and 48.3 beneath the 4,030 stop.
So the card was never triggered. No fill and no result is asserted. The acceptance test, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,010, was never in reach; the highest 30-minute close was 3,971.0, in the 8:30 AM ET bar. The settle finished 59.6 beneath the band bottom and 100.3 beneath the 4,040.7 invalidation line.
The targets printed without the band. The 3,955 second target traded in the first bar, 6:00 PM ET on Monday. The extended 3,930 traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar. The 8:30 AM ET bar carried the high 1.7 through the 3,980 first target. With the band untraded, none of these prints carries a result.
The path call split. Our Tuesday outlook weighted a further test toward Pivot R1 at 4,003.9 and the 5-day average at 4,005.2 that stalls beneath the 9-day average at 4,031.4, above a sustained recovery through 4,040.7. The rebound came but stopped early. The high sat 22.2 beneath R1. The downside branch, a move beneath Pivot S1 at 3,912.1 before any rebound, came first: the 3:30 AM ET bar traded to 3,905.0. It did not reach Monday's 3,889.0 low. Tuesday's low stopped 15.1 above it.
Our range work missed at the bottom. Tuesday's low went 25.9 beneath the 3,930 bottom of the low-range case and 5.9 beneath the 3,910 bottom of the most likely case. The high stayed inside both, 8.3 beneath the 3,990 top of the low-range case. The high-range case of 3,880 to 4,050 held, with the low 24.1 above its bottom. The 3,887.5 bottom of the average-true-range envelope held by 16.6. One deviation support at 3,898.5 held by 5.6.
The session bands split as well. The night band of 3,930 to 3,990 gave way at the bottom: the night traded from 3,916.2 to 3,974.5, 13.8 beneath it. London's 3,925 to 4,000 band also broke lower, around a 3,904.1 to 3,943.3 window. The morning band of 3,915 to 4,015 held. From 9:30 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET the contract traded between 3,933.0 and 3,959.2. The afternoon traded from 3,927.2 to 3,945.6, inside its 3,910 to 4,020 band.
The macro override named a JOLTS figure read as reducing the chance of a rate increase, or a further decline in the dollar. The JOLTS report showed 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million, per the news feed. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.87 against 101.75. Neither condition was met as written. We grade the card as written: not triggered.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-11-03 row of the provider's daily record reads 3,960.5, 3,981.7, 3,904.1 and 3,940.4 on 157,136 contracts. The review states the same prices and volume. Tuesday's open interest was not yet reported. Monday's 2026-11-02 row was revised. It now carries 172,512 contracts against the preliminary 166,666 our Tuesday outlook carried, and open interest of 265,746, which that outlook listed as not yet reported. The review cites the same 172,512 and 265,746 for Monday.
The overnight trade to 10:15 PM ET, and the levels around 3,975 to 3,985
Wednesday's session opened at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. As of 10:15 PM ET it had traded between a 3,928.2 low in the 7:30 PM ET bar and a 3,974.4 high in the 8:30 PM ET bar. The contract printed 3,948.4 at 10:15 PM ET, 8.0 or 0.20 percent above Tuesday's settle. The 10:00 PM ET bar was still forming then. These are overnight prints, not a settle or a completed bar.
One bar carried the overnight gain. The 8:00 PM ET bar rose 22.6 from its 3,940.0 open to 3,962.6. The 30-minute closes then eased back toward the Pivot Point at 3,942.1. Between 8:16 PM ET and 9:11 PM ET the news feed carried projections of US election results, and equity index futures fell more than 1 percent over the same hours, per the review. These are items carried by the news feed, not confirmed events; the timing coincided, and the series does not establish that any headline caused a move.
The overnight high of 3,974.4 sat 0.6 beneath the 3,975 bottom of the setup band. So the band had not traded as of 10:15 PM ET. The overnight low of 3,928.2 sat 1.8 beneath the 3,930 second target, before any entry. The setup levels were set at 10:15 PM ET from that overnight trade.
Resistance starts at the pivot. The Pivot Point at 3,942.1 sits 1.7 above the settle. The 3,947.5 turning-point projection and the 3,948.4 print at 10:15 PM ET follow, 0.9 apart. Tuesday's 3,960.5 open and Monday's 3,969.6 settle come next, then the 3,974.4 overnight high.
Then comes the band. The 5-day average at 3,978.4, Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, Monday's 3,980.8 high, the 3,981.6 turning-point projection and Tuesday's 3,981.7 high all sit inside 3,975 to 3,985, within 3.3 points of each other. The band bottom sits 34.6 above the settle and 26.6 above the 10:15 PM ET print.
Above the band the steps are short. The 9-day crossing price at 4,001.6 and one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 sit 2.1 apart. The 4,005 stop sits 1.3 above that resistance. The 10/23 settle of 4,007.9 and the 9-day average of 4,008.1, computed from the daily record, sit just above the stop. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,018.0, Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 and the 4,022.2 average-true-range mark follow.
Then the extended group. Two standard deviations resistance at 4,029.9 and the 10/29 settle of 4,031.4 sit 1.5 apart, with the 10/26 settle of 4,038.4 beyond. Three standard deviations resistance at 4,050.0, the 10/28 settle of 4,051.6 and Pivot R3 at 4,057.6 follow. The 10/27 settle of 4,074.6, which left the 5-day window on Tuesday, the 20-day average at 4,093.3 and the 4,097.2 weekly high close the group.
The rest is distant. The 10/06 settle of 4,187.1 left the 20-day window on Tuesday. The provider publishes 4,242.3 as the one-month high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 5,781.8 as the 52-week high. The 100-day at 4,259.6, the 50-day at 4,265.4 and the 200-day at 4,583.6 sit between the one-month and 13-week highs.
Support starts at the settle. The final 30-minute close after the settle, 3,940.2 in the 4:30 PM ET bar, sits 0.2 beneath it. The 3,931.4 turning-point level sits 9.0 beneath, and the 3,928.2 overnight low sits 3.2 beneath that level. The 3,911.5 turning-point level, the published target price at 3,906.7, Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and Pivot S1 at 3,902.4 form the next band, 9.1 points deep.
Deeper down sit the 10/30 settle of 3,898.9 and Monday's 3,889.0 low. The 3,879.3 low of 10/30 remains the provider's published one-month, 13-week and 52-week low, 2.2 above one standard deviation support at 3,877.1. Pivot S2 at 3,864.5, the 3,858.6 average-true-range mark, two standard deviations support at 3,850.9, three at 3,830.8 and Pivot S3 at 3,824.8 are the extended references.
Every average sits above the settle. The gaps run 38.0 to the 5-day at 3,978.4, 67.7 to the 9-day at 4,008.1 and 152.9 to the 20-day at 4,093.3. Further out, 325.0 separates the settle from the 50-day at 4,265.4. The 100-day at 4,259.6 sits 319.2 above, the 200-day at 4,583.6 sits 643.2 above. The 5-day fell 26.8 from 4,005.2 as the 10/27 settle of 4,074.6 left its window. The 20-day fell 12.3 from 4,105.7 as the 10/06 settle of 4,187.1 dropped out. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,380.2, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,253.8 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,907.5. The February contract's premium over December narrowed to 32.1 from 32.7.
Momentum sits beneath the midline. Relative strength reads 33.21 on the 9-day, 34.33 on the 14-day and 36.22 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 21.44 percent on the 9-day and 17.91 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 16.69 percent sits 0.47 above %D at 16.22 percent. Sellers lead on direction. On the 9-day, negative direction at 30.95 leads positive at 7.71 with the ADX at 43.12; on the 14-day, 29.08 leads 9.43 with the ADX at 32.33. Historic volatility reads 23.41 percent on the 9-day and 21.08 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:27 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.
The composite read published for Wednesday reads "88% SELL", with strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening". The prior session read "88% SELL". A week ago and a month ago it read "80% SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium-term "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-term "Average: 33% SELL". The trend composite reads "SELL".
Tuesday's 77.6 point range was 1.04 times the 14-day average daily range of 74.4. The high sat 0.9 above Monday's 3,980.8 and the low 15.1 above Monday's 3,889.0. That made a higher high and a higher low. At 46.8 percent of the range, the settle sat 36.3 above the low and 41.3 beneath the high. The body ran 20.1 points beneath the open. The four-hour bars closed at 3,955.7, 3,920.9, 3,914.1, 3,954.5, 3,938.2 and 3,940.2. The 6:00 AM ET bar carried the largest gain, 40.1 points, from 3,914.4 to 3,954.5. The 10:00 PM ET bar on Monday closed 34.5 beneath its open.
The week of October 26 spanned 4,097.2 to 3,879.3 and settled at 3,898.9. Over five sessions the contract is down 134.2 from the 4,074.6 settle of 10/27. Settlements over eight sessions ran 4,007.9, 4,038.4, 4,074.6, 4,051.6, 4,031.4, 3,898.9, 3,969.6 and 3,940.4. Changes over ten sessions ran plus 7.4, minus 89.6, minus 52.5, plus 30.5, plus 36.2, minus 23.0, minus 20.2, minus 132.5, plus 70.7 and minus 29.2. Daily ranges ran 38.3, 127.5, 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8 and 77.6 points.
The 14-day average true range stands at 81.8 points, with the 14-day average daily range at 74.4. The 9-day figures are 81.4 and 85.9, and the 20-day 84.2 and 74.3. One average true range either side of the settle spans 3,858.6 to 4,022.2. The deviation bands are built from five settlements. They run 3,877.1 to 4,003.7, 3,850.9 to 4,029.9 and 3,830.8 to 4,050.0, and describe dispersion, not intraday reach. The retracement grid places the 38.2 percent level from the four-week low at 4,018.0.
A firmer dollar, higher yields and a 2.23 percent fall in silver
The dollar firmed. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.87 against 101.75, up 0.12. The ten-year yield index rose 6 basis points to 4.95 percent from 4.89 percent. The provider's commentary attributed the dollar's firmness to the stronger JOLTS and factory orders figures, per that commentary and unconfirmed. Gold settled lower on a day both the dollar and the ten-year yield rose; the moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects.
Metals fell together. Silver's December contract fell 2.23 percent to 49.753, and the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 79.20 from 78.01. December WTI fell 0.38 percent to 96.09. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.36 percent to 7,568.92, as computed from the stated closes. The volatility index closed at 20.83 against 21.15.
Headlines ran through the day. The news feed carried at 1:40 AM ET a senior Iranian official saying the two sides were far from a deal. At 8:26 AM ET the news feed carried a regional press report of concessions in US and Iran talks, on the nuclear programme and frozen funds. Denials followed. Iranian state media rejected reports that a deal was close at 10:14 AM ET and 10:16 AM ET, per the news feed. These reports on the talks were carried by the news feed; they are not events confirmed for this review.
The timing lines up with one bar. The 8:26 AM ET report carried by the news feed coincided with the 8:00 AM ET bar, which closed at 3,963.8, 21.4 above the 7:30 AM ET close of 3,942.4. The 8:30 AM ET bar then made the 3,981.7 high. The timing coincided. The series does not establish that any headline caused gold's move.
Rates are the other thread. The JOLTS report, released at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday as the calendar lists it, showed 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million, per the news feed. Factory orders rose 1.8 percent against 1.2 percent, per the news feed. The next Fed rate statement is listed for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. A European central bank official said at 1:27 PM ET that the energy shock was more persistent than earlier thought, per the news feed.
No structural demand figure was available. The provider's commentary reported that the Chinese central bank raised the foreign-currency reserve requirement ratio and that the yuan fell to a 1.5-week low against the dollar, per that commentary and unconfirmed. No central-bank purchase or fund-holdings figures were available, and neither was the weekly positioning report, so none is asserted. Tuesday's December volume was 157,136 contracts against a revised 172,512 on Monday, down 15,376 or 8.9 percent. Open interest stood at 265,746 on Monday 11/02 against 269,498 on Friday 10/30, down 3,752. Tuesday's open interest was not yet reported.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Tuesday, after the settle, with a page date of 2026-11-03; every figure below is that evening read, as of its read time. The fund is a proxy, used qualitatively only and never translated into futures prices; it tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract. The console carried Monday's 361.65 as its previous close. It showed a current price of 359.95, down 0.47 percent.
Modeled call gamma read minus 196.02 million against put gamma of plus 108.01 million on the proxy. At that read aggregate call-side gamma was negative and put-side gamma positive. Call volume of 161.28 thousand against put volume of 77.63 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only. Options volume says nothing about direction or demand. Then volatility. One-month implied volatility read 22.47 percent against realised volatility of 22.20 percent, 0.27 points apart. The implied-volatility rank read 18.07 percent and the skew rank 22.71 percent. The options-implied move was 5.13 dollars, about 1.43 percent of the 359.95 current price.
These readings describe 6:18 PM ET on Tuesday only. In the review's interpretation, calls ahead of puts and an implied-volatility rank near its lows are consistent with options traders not pricing a large move in either direction. Modeled gamma on a proxy stays a non-directional lens. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded, and no fund figure sets a futures level here.
The trade map for Wednesday
The primary setup is a short. Its band runs 3,975 to 3,985 and holds the 5-day average at 3,978.4, Pivot R1 at 3,980.0 and Tuesday's 3,981.7 high. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the composite reads "88% SELL" with strength "Strong". The band sits 34.6 to 44.6 points above the settle. It also sits 26.6 to 36.6 above the 3,948.4 print at 10:15 PM ET. The short needs a rebound into the band from the overnight trade.
Risk sits above the deviation band. The 4,005 stop sits 1.3 above one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 and 3.4 above the 4,001.6 crossing price. Targets step down. The first, 3,955, sits 7.5 above the 3,947.5 turning-point projection, 14.6 above the settle and 6.6 above the 10:15 PM ET print. Then comes 3,930, 1.4 beneath the 3,931.4 turning-point level. It sits 10.4 beneath the settle, 18.4 beneath the print and 1.8 above the 3,928.2 overnight low. The extended 3,905 sits 0.9 above Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and 2.6 above Pivot S1 at 3,902.4. The review names the case against the trade. A weaker dollar can carry price through the band. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
The night session runs from the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday. The review's night bias is neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, with an expected band for the rest of the session of roughly 3,925 to 3,975. That band's top meets the 3,975 bottom of the setup band. The 3,928.2 overnight low sits 3.2 above its bottom.
European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET. Euro-area inflation estimates are listed for 5:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's London band runs roughly 3,905 to 3,975, with a neutral to lower bias. Its top also meets the band bottom.
Data arrive early. The private payrolls estimate is listed for 8:15 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The services purchasing managers' survey is listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. In the review's judgment that survey is the first-order event for gold on Wednesday. The morning band runs roughly 3,890 to 3,990. The setup band's 3,985 top sits 5.0 beneath its upper edge.
Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. In the review's judgment, US and Iran diplomacy headlines carried by the news feed are the main unscheduled source of movement after the morning data. The afternoon band also runs roughly 3,890 to 3,990.
For the full session the review sets a low-range case of 3,915 to 3,965, a mid-range case, the most likely, of 3,890 to 3,990 and a high-range case of 3,860 to 4,020. The low-range top sits 10.0 beneath the band bottom. The high-range case's 3,860 bottom sits 1.4 above the 3,858.6 average-true-range mark. Its 4,020 top sits 2.2 beneath the 4,022.2 mark. Later in the week, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists them. A Fed governor is scheduled to speak at 12:15 PM ET on Friday, as the calendar lists it. The UK central bank decision is listed for 7:00 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 3,902.4 and Pivot R1 at 3,980.0. Within it, a rebound toward Pivot R1 that stalls beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 is weighted above a sustained recovery through the 9-day crossing price at 4,001.6. No measured frequency backs it. That stall reference sits 23.7 above the 3,980.0 top of the path. In the same analyst judgment, the 9-day relative strength reading of 33.21 leaves room for a rebound. The alternative that would invalidate the reading is a settle above 4,003.7. That could bring the 4,018.0 retracement and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 into play. A move beneath Tuesday's 3,904.1 low before any rebound could instead bring the 3,879.3 low of 10/30 and Pivot S2 at 3,864.5 into play, without the rebound the setup needs.
Wednesday's band starts 0.6 above the overnight high. The rebound has to reach it first.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Wednesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 3,940.4 on Tuesday, down 29.2 or 0.74 percent from Monday's settle of 3,969.6, after trading between 3,981.7 and 3,904.1, a 77.6 point daily range. The settle finished at 46.8 percent of the range, and the range was 1.04 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 74.4 points. Tuesday's high sat 0.9 above Monday's 3,980.8 and its low 15.1 above Monday's 3,889.0, a higher high and a higher low, while the settle gave back 29.2 of Monday's 70.7 gain. Over five sessions the contract is down 134.2 from the 4,074.6 settle of 10/27, and the provider publishes 3,879.3, the low of 10/30/26, as the one-month, 13-week and 52-week low.
The session low of 3,904.1 came in the 4:00 AM ET bar and the high of 3,981.7 in the 8:30 AM ET bar, after which the contract eased to the 1:30 PM ET settle. The news feed carried at 8:26 AM ET a regional press report of concessions in US and Iran talks; these are reports carried by the feeds, not confirmed events, and the timing coincided with the move without establishing a cause. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.87 against 101.75 and silver fell 2.23 percent. The ten-year yield index rose 6 basis points to 4.95 percent.
The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages. Electronic trade after the settle ended at 3,940.2 in the 4:30 PM ET bar.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Wednesday is "88% SELL" with strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening", unchanged from "88% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 3,975 to 3,985 band around Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, stopped at 4,005, with objectives at 3,955, 3,930 and an extended 3,905.
Overnight update, 10:15 PM ET Tuesday. The reopened Globex session for Wednesday traded between a 3,928.2 low in the 7:30 PM ET bar and a 3,974.4 high in the 8:30 PM ET bar, and the contract traded at 3,948.4 as of 10:15 PM ET, 8.0 or 0.20 percent above Tuesday's settle; these are overnight prints, not a settle, and the 10:00 PM ET bar was still forming at that time. The 8:00 PM ET bar rose 22.6 from its 3,940.0 open to 3,962.6, and the 30-minute closes then eased back toward the Pivot Point at 3,942.1. Between 8:16 PM ET and 9:11 PM ET the news feed carried projections of US election results, while equity index futures fell more than 1 percent over the same hours; these are items carried by the news feed, not confirmed events, and the series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
The overnight high of 3,974.4 sat 0.6 beneath the 3,975 to 3,985 Primary Setup band, so the setup was not triggered and remains as written, with the overnight high now the first reference beneath the band. Every Tuesday measurement in this review is unchanged.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Tuesday session opened at 3,960.5 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 9.1 beneath Monday's settle, and the 30-minute series for the continuous contract places the low of 3,904.1 in the 4:00 AM ET bar and the high of 3,981.7 in the 8:30 AM ET bar. Through the overnight hours the 30-minute closes eased from 3,967.8 in the 7:30 PM ET bar to 3,905.8 in the 3:30 AM ET bar.
From the 7:00 AM ET bar the closes rose to 3,942.4 in the 7:30 AM ET bar, 3,963.8 in the 8:00 AM ET bar and 3,971.0 in the 8:30 AM ET bar, which made the session high; the 8:26 AM ET press report on US and Iran talks coincided with the 8:00 AM ET bar. The 9:00 AM ET bar closed at 3,952.1 and the 10:00 AM ET bar at 3,935.6. From the 9:30 AM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the 30-minute bars stayed between 3,927.2 and 3,959.2, with the settle fixed at 1:30 PM ET. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 3,940.2, the post-settlement print. The series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Wednesday, so Tuesday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 4,057.6 minus Pivot S3 at 3,824.8, divided by three, returns 77.6, and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 minus Pivot S2 at 3,864.5, divided by two, returns the same 77.6. Three times the Pivot Point of 3,942.1 less the 3,940.4 settle gives a high plus low sum of 7,885.9, which solves to a high of 3,981.7 and a low of 3,904.1 within published rounding; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 3,960.5 open, 3,981.7 high, 3,904.1 low and 3,940.4 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Tuesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Monday, but the settle fell. Settlements over the last eight sessions read 4,007.9, 4,038.4, 4,074.6, 4,051.6, 4,031.4, 3,898.9, 3,969.6 and 3,940.4. The 3,898.9 settle of 10/30 remains the lowest in the year of settlements in the daily record.
The weekly bar for the week of October 26 spanned 4,097.2 to 3,879.3 and settled at 3,898.9. The provider publishes 5,781.8 as the 52-week high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 4,242.3 as the one-month high.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The four-hour bars for Tuesday's session, read from the chart, show the 6:00 PM ET bar closing at 3,955.7, the 10:00 PM ET bar at 3,920.9 and the 2:00 AM ET bar, which held the session low, at 3,914.1. The 6:00 AM ET bar made the session high and closed at 3,954.5, 40.1 above its 3,914.4 open, the largest gain of the six, and the 10:00 AM ET bar closed at 3,938.2.
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/21, ran 38.3, 127.5, 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8 and 77.6. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,018.0 and the price that would cross the 9-day average at 4,001.6.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/23/25 through Tuesday; the partial row of the reopened Wednesday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 3,978.4, the 20-day at 4,093.3, the 50-day at 4,265.4, the 100-day at 4,259.6 and the 200-day at 4,583.6.
The 3,940.4 settle sits 38.0 beneath the 5-day average, 152.9 beneath the 20-day, 325.0 beneath the 50-day, 319.2 beneath the 100-day and 643.2 beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell from Monday's 4,005.2 as Tuesday's settle replaced the 10/27 settle of 4,074.6, and the 20-day fell from 4,105.7 as the 10/06 settle of 4,187.1 left the window.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,380.2. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 4,253.8, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,907.5.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:27 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, not computations made for this review, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 33.21, the 14-day relative strength 34.33 and the 20-day relative strength 36.22.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 21.44 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 17.91 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 16.69 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 16.22 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 43.12 with the 9-day +DI at 7.71 and the 9-day -DI at 30.95; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 32.33 with the 14-day +DI at 9.43 and the 14-day -DI at 29.08, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 23.41 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 21.08 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Wednesday session is "88% SELL", with signal strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening", and the trend composite reads "SELL". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "80% SELL" a week ago and "80% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium group "Average: 100% SELL" and the long group "Average: 33% SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 81.8 points and the 14-day average daily range at 74.4 points; the 9-day average true range is 81.4 with a 9-day average daily range of 85.9, and the 20-day average true range is 84.2 with a 20-day average daily range of 74.3. Tuesday's 77.6 point range was 1.04 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 81.8 from the 3,940.4 settle frames Wednesday between 3,858.6 and 4,022.2. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 3,877.1 to 4,003.7 at one deviation, 3,850.9 to 4,029.9 at two and 3,830.8 to 4,050.0 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 3,940.4 settle, the first reference is the Pivot Point at 3,942.1, with the 3,947.5 published turning-point projection above it. The 5-day average at 3,978.4, Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, the 3,981.6 published turning-point projection and Tuesday's 3,981.7 high form the next band. The 4,001.6 price that would cross the 9-day average and one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 are the extended references, with the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,018.0 and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the published turning-point levels at 3,931.4 and 3,911.5. The published target price at 3,906.7, Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and Pivot S1 at 3,902.4 form the next band. The 3,879.3 low of 10/30, published as the one-month, 13-week and 52-week low, and one standard deviation support at 3,877.1 are the deeper references, with Pivot S2 at 3,864.5 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.87 against 101.75. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.95 percent; Monday's close was 4.89 percent. The provider's commentary attributed the dollar's firmness to the stronger JOLTS and factory orders figures, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. Gold settled lower on a day when both the dollar and the ten-year yield rose; the two moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
The JOLTS report, released at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists it, showed 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million, per the news feed. The next Fed rate statement is listed for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. A Fed governor is scheduled to speak at 12:15 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it. A European central bank official said at 1:27 PM ET that the energy shock was more persistent than earlier thought, per the news feed.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 1:40 AM ET a senior Iranian official saying the two sides were far from a deal, at 8:26 AM ET a regional press report of concessions on the nuclear programme and frozen funds, and at 10:14 AM ET and 10:16 AM ET Iranian state media rejecting reports that a deal was close. These reports on the US and Iran talks were carried by the news feed; they are not events confirmed for this review.
4.4 China and Structural Demand
The provider's commentary reported that the Chinese central bank raised the foreign-currency reserve requirement ratio and that the yuan fell to a 1.5-week low against the dollar, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. No central-bank purchase figures or fund-holdings figures were available for this review.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
December WTI crude fell 0.38 percent to 96.09 and silver's December contract fell 2.23 percent to 49.753, so the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 79.20 from 78.01. The February contract's premium over December narrowed to 32.1 from 32.7. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.36 percent, as computed from the stated closes of 7,568.92 and 7,541.4.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report was not available for this review. Tuesday's open interest on the December contract was not yet reported; Monday's stood at 265,746 per the settlement record, and Tuesday's December volume was 157,136 contracts against 172,512 on Monday.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Tuesday, after the settle, with a page date of 2026-11-03; every figure in this section is that evening read. The fund proxy is used qualitatively only and is never translated into futures prices; the fund tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract.
The console carried Monday's 361.65 as its previous close and showed a current price of 359.95, down 0.47 percent. Modeled call gamma reads minus 196.02 million against put gamma of plus 108.01 million, so aggregate call-side gamma is negative while put-side gamma is positive. Call volume of 161.28 thousand against put volume of 77.63 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only; options volume is never a direction or demand read.
One-month implied volatility reads 22.47 percent against realised volatility of 22.20 percent, the implied-volatility rank 18.07 percent and the skew rank 22.71 percent, with an options-implied move of 5.13 dollars. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded.
In this review's interpretation, a fund options market with calls ahead of puts and an implied-volatility rank near its lows is consistent with options traders not pricing a large move in either direction. Nothing in this section is used to set a futures level; every level in this review originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET and, as of 10:15 PM ET, had traded between the 3,928.2 low in the 7:30 PM ET bar and the 3,974.4 high in the 8:30 PM ET bar while the news feed carried projections of US election results; the timing coincided, and no cause is established. Bias neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, expected band for the rest of the session roughly 3,925 to 3,975.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)
From 3:00 AM ET European trading opens with euro-area inflation estimates listed for 5:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 3,905 to 3,975.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, US Open)
The trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the services purchasing managers' survey is listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 3,890 to 3,990, with the 3,975 to 3,985 setup band near the top, its 3,985 top 5.0 beneath the 3,990 edge.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 4:00 PM ET Wednesday)
The settlement at 1:30 PM ET fixes the reference after the morning data; in this review's judgment, US and Iran diplomacy headlines carried by the news feed are the main unscheduled source of movement. Expected band roughly 3,890 to 3,990.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)
The Wednesday evening session at 6:00 PM ET carries the settle into Thursday. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 3,915 to 3,965
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 3,890 to 3,990
High-range scenario: 3,860 to 4,020
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 3,902.4 and Pivot R1 at 3,980.0, with a rebound toward Pivot R1 at 3,980.0 that stalls beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 weighted above a sustained recovery through the 9-day crossing price at 4,001.6; that stall reference sits 23.7 above the 3,980.0 top of the path. The composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strengthening", the snapshot reads "80% SELL" a week ago and "80% SELL" a month ago, and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while, in the same analyst judgment, the 9-day relative strength reading of 33.21 leaves room for a rebound.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7, which would bring the 4,018.0 retracement and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 into play. On the other side, a move beneath Tuesday's 3,904.1 low before any rebound would bring the 3,879.3 low of 10/30 and Pivot S2 at 3,864.5 into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Wednesday Economic Calendar
Tuesday's releases are complete. The JOLTS report and factory orders, both released at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists them, came in at 7.523 million openings against a forecast of 7.164 million and a 1.8 percent rise in orders against 1.2 percent, per the news feed. The midterm elections took place on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, the trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The private payrolls estimate is listed for 8:15 AM ET and the services purchasing managers' survey for 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the week, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026 and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. The UK central bank decision is listed for 7:00 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. In this review's judgment the first-order event for gold on Wednesday is the services survey at 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, after a JOLTS report that came in above forecast, with US and Iran diplomacy headlines carried by the news feed the main unscheduled source of volatility.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The composite stays at "88% SELL" with strength "Strong" and direction "Strengthening", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath every settlement average. A rebound into the 3,975 to 3,985 band around Pivot R1 at 3,980.0 and Tuesday's 3,981.7 high offers a short with a defined risk point above one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7. A weaker dollar can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 3,975 to 3,985 (levels set at 10:15 PM ET from the overnight trade; not reached overnight as of 10:15 PM ET; the 3,974.4 overnight high sat 0.6 beneath the band)
Stop Loss: 4,005 (above one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 and the 4,001.6 crossing price of the 9-day average)
Target 1 (T1): 3,955 (7.5 above the 3,947.5 turning-point projection)
Target 2 (T2): 3,930 (1.4 beneath the 3,931.4 turning-point level)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 3,905 (above Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and Pivot S1 at 3,902.4)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 3,985; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A services survey read as reducing the chance of a rate increase, or a further decline in the dollar, would support gold. In that scenario a move through the 4,005 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 4,018.0 retracement becomes the reference, 13.0 beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 81.8.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Tuesday's close on November 3, 2026 for the Wednesday, November 4, 2026 session, with an overnight update at 10:15 PM ET Tuesday. Tuesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Wednesday: Pivot R3 at 4,057.6 less Pivot S3 at 3,824.8, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 less Pivot S2 at 3,864.5, divided by two, both return 77.6, and three times the 3,942.1 Pivot Point less the settle gives 7,885.9, which the 3,981.7 high and the 3,904.1 low reproduce to within the published rounding at 7,885.8. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Tuesday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. Only those figures, the dated 2026-11-03 row of the provider's daily record, Tuesday's 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Tuesday's card. The 30-minute bars run from the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the bar that opened at 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, labelled in Eastern standard time; each timed statement here names the bar in which a price first traded.
The overnight figures come from the 30-minute bars of the Wednesday session from the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, as of 10:15 PM ET; they are live-session prints, not settlements, and the 10:00 PM ET bar was still forming at that time. A partial early row of the reopened session in the provider's daily record is excluded from every count, average and grade. Monday's 2026-11-02 row has been revised since our Tuesday outlook: volume now reads 172,512 contracts against the preliminary 166,666, and open interest 265,746, which that outlook listed as not yet reported; Monday's prices are unchanged. Tuesday's open interest was not yet reported, so none is stated. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 259 completed sessions through Tuesday and rounded once to the 0.1 tick; the oscillators and range measures are cited as published, read at 6:27 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The percent changes for the dollar index and the S&P 500 cash index, the volume and open interest changes and the fund's implied move as a percent are computed from the stated figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar, the news feed or provider commentary.
Tuesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Tuesday outlook covers the December WTI contract, which settled at 96.09 on Tuesday, down 0.38 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
