December crude settled at 96.46 on Monday, down 7.66 or 7.36 percent from Friday's 104.12. The session ran between 102.75 and 95.15, a 7.60 point range. The settle finished at 17.2 percent of that range. It was the largest one-day settlement decline of any session in the provider's record from 10/22/25 through Monday, in points and in percent. The next largest was 4.99 points, on 03/23/26. The range was the widest since 05/06/26 and 1.96 times the 14-day average daily range of 3.88 points. The settle is the lowest since 10/14/26.
Monday's long card traded, then so did its stop. The card was a long from 102.45 to 102.75 with a 101.85 stop. The session opened at 102.39 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 6 cents beneath the band. Its first 30-minute bar reached 102.75, the band's top and the day's high. The 8:00 PM ET bar traded down to 101.50, through the stop. No target printed. No fill and no result are asserted.
The news feed and the provider's commentary tied the decline to diplomacy between the United States and Iran. These are reports carried by the feeds rather than events confirmed for this review. The 30-minute closes eased from 102.43 in the first bar to 99.78 in the 8:00 AM ET bar. The 8:30 AM ET bar closed at 97.65. That was 2.13 beneath the prior close. The bar coincided with the news feed's 8:30 AM ET state media report on Iran's negotiating authority; the series does not establish that the report caused the move.
Brent fell by slightly more. Its January contract, now the front Brent month, settled at 104.77, down 8.66 or 7.63 percent. Gasoline fell 8.12 percent and heating oil 5.44 percent, so both product margins over crude narrowed. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.66 from 1.91. Gold's December contract rose 1.81 percent, the dollar index eased to 101.75 and the S&P 500 cash index fell 0.51 percent. Among those four, crude was the largest mover. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 96.26, 20 cents beneath the settle; that is a post-settlement quote.
December crude settled at 96.46, down 7.66 or 7.36 percent, at 17.2 percent of a 95.15 to 102.75 range. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages and above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day. Resistance starts at the 20-day average at 96.82, then the 97.15 stall level, the 97.74 retracement and the Pivot Point at 98.12. Support starts at the 96.26 post-settlement print and the 96.22 projection, then 96.02 and the 95.49 retracement. The setup flips to a short on the December contract from 97.95 to 98.25, around the Pivot Point. The stop is 98.85, with targets at 97.35, 96.60 and an extended 95.85. The whole band sits above the settle. So do the first two targets, the second by 14 cents; only the extended target sits beneath it. Globex reopened for Tuesday at 6:00 PM ET on Monday.
Monday's long band traded in the first bar, then the 101.85 stop
First, the grading. In Monday's outlook we set a long on the December contract from 102.45 to 102.75, stop 101.85, with targets at 103.35, 104.10 and an extended 104.85. A settle beneath two standard deviations support at 101.94 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 102.45 would remove the edge. The card is graded on December's Monday bar, with the order of events taken from the preserved 30-minute bars.
The band traded at once. December's bar, from the provider's settlement row, opened at 102.39 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. That was 6 cents beneath the band's bottom. The first 30-minute bar ran from 102.25 to 102.75, the band's top and the session's high. It closed at 102.43 and the next bar at 102.30. Those were two consecutive closes beneath 102.45, the card's acceptance line. The next two bars reached back into the band, to 102.61 and 102.52.
Then the stop traded. The 8:00 PM ET bar ran from 102.15 down to 101.50, through the 101.85 stop and the 101.94 line. No target printed. The 102.75 high stopped 60 cents beneath the 103.35 first target. The 96.46 settle sat 5.48 beneath 101.94, so the invalidation settle printed. The low sat 6.70 beneath the stop. No fill and no result are asserted.
Every range gave way at the bottom. The low-range case of 102.40 to 104.40 broke by 7.25. The most likely case of 101.90 to 105.30 broke by 6.75, and the high-range case of 100.50 to 106.80 by 5.35. One deviation, 102.58 to 105.66, gave way by 7.43. Two deviations gave way at 101.94 by 6.79, and three at 101.45 by 6.30. One average true range around Friday's settle, 100.53 to 107.71, broke by 5.38. No range was tested at its top.
The session bands tell the same story. Globex, 6:00 PM ET to 3:00 AM ET, traded 100.15 to 102.75 against a 102.00 to 105.00 band, 1.85 beneath its bottom. London traded 99.12 to 100.83 against 102.40 to 105.30. Its whole range sat beneath that band, the high by 1.57. The morning traded 96.35 to 97.99 against 102.30 to 105.40, its high 4.31 beneath. The afternoon traded 95.15 to 96.80 against 102.20 to 105.60, its high 5.40 beneath.
The weighted path pictured a reopen near the 102.95 print and a test of the 102.43 to 102.70 area. The reopen came at 102.39, and the first bar did test that area. The recovery toward 104.12 never came. The alternative named a reopen beneath 101.94. The reopen held above it, and the 8:00 PM ET bar crossed it. Pivot S2 at 101.29 first traded in the 9:00 PM ET bar, and Pivot S3 at 100.14 in the 3:30 AM ET bar. The macro override named a confirmed step toward a US and Iran arrangement. The review records reports on diplomacy carried by the feeds, not a confirmed step.
The December band at 97.95 to 98.25, around the Pivot Point and above the settle
The map moved down 4.50, the gap between the two midpoints. Every price here is the December contract. The new band, 97.95 to 98.25, holds the Pivot Point at 98.12 and the 18-day crossing price at 98.22. The whole band sits above the settle. Its bottom sits 1.49 over it and its top 1.79. The 96.26 close of the last 30-minute bar sits 1.69 beneath the band's bottom. The stop at 98.85 sits 13 cents above the 98.72 stochastic projection and 60 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 99.45.
Monday's high came first. Its low came late. The high printed in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Sunday evening and the low in the 1:00 PM ET bar on Monday. The 30-minute closes eased through the night, to 99.78 in the 8:00 AM ET bar. From the 9:00 AM ET bar to the settle they ran between 95.91 and 97.47. Settlement came at 2:30 PM ET, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 96.26.
Monday printed a lower high and a lower low. Its 102.75 high sat 2.24 beneath Friday's 104.99, and its 95.15 low sat 7.28 beneath Friday's 102.43. Settlements over eight sessions read 99.47, 103.27, 101.76, 99.90, 102.78, 102.00, 104.12 and 96.46. The last five daily changes alternated: minus 1.86, plus 2.88, minus 0.78, plus 2.12 and minus 7.66. Over five sessions the contract is down 5.30 from the 101.76 settle of 10/26. The 104.99 high of Friday remains the published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high. The one-month low is 86.00, from 10/06.
The four-hour bars show the shape. Five of the six closed beneath their opens. The 6:00 AM ET bar carried the largest decline, from 99.63 to 97.11 after a 96.81 low. The 2:00 PM ET bar was the only one to close above its open, at 96.26 from 96.17. The hourly and 15-minute series carry the same decline through the US morning. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56 and 7.60.
Resistance starts 36 cents up, at the 20-day average at 96.82. The review's list leaves it out. The 97.15 stall level, the 97.74 retracement, the Pivot Point at 98.12 and the 98.22 crossing price follow. The 98.72 projection and one standard deviation resistance at 99.45 form the next band. The 100.43 top of one average true range comes next, also missing from the review's list. Two standard deviations resistance at 100.69 follows, then the 9-day average at 100.77, which the list also skips. The 5-day at 101.05, Pivot R1 at 101.09, the 101.22 crossing price and three standard deviations resistance at 101.64 come after. Monday's 102.39 open and Friday's 102.43 low sit just beneath Monday's 102.75 high. Pivot R2 at 105.72 and Pivot R3 at 108.69 are the outer references.
Support starts 20 cents down, at the 96.26 post-settlement print. The 96.22 projection sits 4 cents beneath it, and the 96.02 relative strength projection follows. The 95.49 retracement, the 95.17 stall level, the 95.16 target price and Monday's 95.15 low form the next band; the last three sit within 2 cents. Pivot S1 at 93.49, one standard deviation support at 93.47 and the 93.25 retracement come next. The review's list then skips the 92.49 bottom of one average true range. Two standard deviations support at 92.23 follows. The list also skips the 92.01 retracement, the 50-day at 91.31 and three standard deviations support at 91.28, which come before Pivot S2 at 90.52. Further down sit the 86.00 one-month low, Pivot S3 at 85.89, the 100-day at 83.11 and the 200-day at 77.81.
The averages split around price. The settle sits 4.59 beneath the 5-day at 101.05 and 4.31 beneath the 9-day at 100.77. It is 36 cents beneath the 20-day at 96.82. It sits 5.15 above the 50-day at 91.31, 13.35 above the 100-day at 83.11 and 18.65 above the 200-day at 77.81. The 5-day fell 1.06 from 102.11 as the 10/26 settle of 101.76 left the window. The 20-day rose 41 cents from 96.41. The 10/05 settle of 88.20 that left it was lower than Monday's. The stack beneath stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 87.64, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.90 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 72.51. Tuesday's crossing prices are 101.22 for the 9-day and 98.22 for the 18-day.
Momentum turned. Relative strength reads 45.44 on the 9-day, 50.81 on the 14-day and 53.71 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 13.31 percent on the 9-day and 31.92 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 71.00 percent sits beneath %D at 82.33 percent. Negative direction now leads on the 9-day, 22.12 against 20.10, with the ADX at 55.64. Positive direction still leads on the 14-day, 21.74 against 17.44, with the ADX at 45.62. Historic volatility reads 52.03 percent and 44.79 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read for Tuesday is 8 percent buy. It read 100 percent buy for the prior session and a week ago, and 40 percent a month ago. Its signal strength is described as soft and its direction as weakest. The short horizon group averages 40 percent sell, the medium 25 percent buy and the long 67 percent buy. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:24 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen; the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.
Average ranges sit near 4 points. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.97 points, about 4.1 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 3.88. The 9-day figures are 4.20 and 3.89 and the 20-day 3.79 and 3.70. One average true range either side of the settle spans 92.49 to 100.43. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 93.47 to 99.45, 92.23 to 100.69 and 91.28 to 101.64. They describe dispersion only.
Diplomacy reports, a 9.97 Brent premium and narrower product margins
The diplomacy reports came through the day. At 8:30 AM ET the news feed carried a state media report that Iran's Supreme Leader had granted the government certain authorities regarding negotiations. Remarks followed in the afternoon. At 2:53 PM ET the news feed carried the President's remarks that "it's coming together nicely, that's why oil down". The Vice President spoke next. At 3:24 PM ET the news feed carried his remarks that he feels good about the prospects of a deal. The provider's commentary also cited a press report that the President told Israel's prime minister he wants to give diplomacy more time. These are reports carried by the feeds and attributed commentary, not events confirmed for this review.
Supply drew comment too. The provider's commentary cited reports that crude supplies are still leaving the Middle East, including Saudi shipments tracked by a tanker-tracking service, as a factor weighing on price. No producer-group decision was captured for Monday. The review does not anticipate one.
No inventory report came on Monday. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, covering the week ending October 30. The prior report's crude draw of 1.892 million barrels appears as the previous value in the news-feed calendar. The provider's commentary described December gasoline at a three-month low for the nearest futures.
Gasoline fell further than crude. In the provider's daily record December heating oil settled at 4.4216 dollars a gallon, down 5.44 percent, and December gasoline at 2.9001, down 8.12 percent. The heating oil margin is 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle. Against December WTI it stands at 89.25 dollars a barrel, against 92.28 on Friday. The gasoline margin stands at 25.34 against 28.45. Both narrowed. December natural gas settled at 2.8560, per the news feed's settlement item.
Other markets moved on the same day. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.51 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 1.39 percent, while the Dow rose 0.41 percent. Gold's December contract rose 1.81 percent. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.75 against 101.88, and the ten-year yield index at 4.89 percent against 4.92 percent. The provider's commentary connected the decline in crude to lower inflation expectations and the dollar's decline. Here the moves are reported as coinciding. On the calendar, construction spending came at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, as the calendar lists it. It fell 1.9 percent against an expected gain, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. The US manufacturing survey rose to 55.5, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed.
The weekly positioning report was not captured for this review. December open interest stood at 257,459 on Friday, against 261,778 on Thursday. Monday's open interest had not been reported in final form at the time of capture. Monday's December volume was 357,697 contracts, the heaviest of the last eight sessions. Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 9.97 from 11.22. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Tuesday
The review's setup flips to a short on the December contract from 97.95 to 98.25. Monday closed the largest one-day settlement decline of any session from 10/22/25, at 17.2 percent of its range. The composite fell to 8 percent buy, with direction described as weakest. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages. That is the case for selling a rebound. The band holds the Pivot Point at 98.12 and the 18-day crossing price at 98.22. The stop at 98.85 sits above the 98.72 stochastic projection. The first target, 97.35, sits beneath the 97.74 retracement. The second, 96.60, sits 14 cents above Monday's settle. The extended 95.85 sits above the 95.49 retracement and Monday's 95.15 low. In the review's reading, a headline could carry price through the band. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds are sold while diplomacy headlines dominate, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 98.10 midpoint the risk to the stop is 75 cents, 18.9 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.97. The targets sit 75 cents, 1.50 and 2.25 beneath the midpoint. That is exactly 1, 2 and 3 times the risk. The whole band sits above the settle, its bottom 1.49 and its top 1.79 over it. The 97.35 first target sits 89 cents above the settle and 39 cents beneath the 97.74 retracement. The 96.60 second target sits 14 cents above the settle. Only the extended 95.85 sits beneath it, 61 cents under it and 70 cents above Monday's low.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 95.10 to 98.20, the most likely 94.30 to 99.00 and the high-range case 92.50 to 100.50. Globex reopened for Tuesday at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, near the settle and the 96.26 post-settlement print. The review's night bias is neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 98.12. Its expected band runs roughly 95.10 to 98.20. That top sits 8 cents above the pivot. The overnight hours may carry a response to Monday's diplomacy remarks.
London starts at 3:00 AM ET and runs roughly 94.90 to 98.40, with a neutral to lower bias beneath the 97.74 retracement. Swiss inflation data is listed at 2:30 AM ET, before that start, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The review gives it little direct weight for crude. The morning band runs roughly 94.50 to 98.80. The calendar lists factory orders and the JOLTS report at 10:00 AM ET. The review places the setup band near the upper edge of that morning range; its 98.25 top sits 55 cents beneath 98.80. The afternoon runs roughly 94.30 to 99.00, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET.
Then the week. Tuesday is the day of the midterm elections, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists a chipmaker's results for Tuesday, for the date only. It lists the trade report at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, and the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET that day. The employment situation report follows at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, as the calendar lists it. In the review's judgment the first-order driver for crude on Tuesday is the flow of headlines on US and Iran diplomacy. It ranks no scheduled US data release above that.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 93.49 and one standard deviation resistance at 99.45. It pictures a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 98.12 that stalls beneath the 98.72 projection. That path is weighted above a sustained recovery through Pivot R1 at 101.09. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above 99.45. That could bring two standard deviations resistance at 100.69 and Pivot R1 into play. In the review's reading it would suggest Monday's decline was an overreaction to the diplomacy headlines. On the other side, a move beneath Monday's 95.15 low before any rebound could open Pivot S1 without the retest the setup needs.
In the review's words, a 7.60 point range leaves room for large two-way swings on any headline. The 96.26 print sits 1.69 beneath Tuesday's band.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December WTI contract settled at 96.46 on Monday, down 7.66 or 7.36 percent from Friday's settle of 104.12, after trading between 102.75 and 95.15, a 7.60 point daily range. The settle finished at 17.2 percent of the range, and the range was 1.96 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 3.88 points. The 7.66 point decline is the largest one-day settlement decline of any session from 10/22/25 through Monday, in points and in percent, ahead of the 4.99 point decline of 03/23/26, and the 7.60 point range is the widest since 05/06/26. The 96.46 settle is the lowest since 10/14/26.
The news feed and the provider's commentary tied the decline to diplomacy between the United States and Iran. The news feed carried at 8:30 AM ET a state media report that Iran's Supreme Leader had granted the government authority in negotiations, and in the afternoon the President's remarks that "it's coming together nicely, that's why oil down". These are reports carried by the feeds rather than events confirmed for this review. Brent's January contract, now the front Brent month after December's expiry, settled at 104.77, down 8.66 or 7.63 percent.
Gasoline fell 8.12 percent and heating oil 5.44 percent, so both product margins over crude narrowed, and December's premium over January narrowed to 1.66 from 1.91. Gold rose 1.81 percent and the dollar index eased to 101.75, while the S&P 500 cash index fell 0.51 percent, so crude was the largest mover of the four instruments. The 14-day average true range of 3.97 points equals about 4.1 percent of the settle.
The composite multi-indicator read fell to "8% BUY" with strength "Soft" and direction "Weakest", from "100% BUY" a session earlier. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages and above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 97.95 to 98.25 band around the Pivot Point at 98.12, stopped at 98.85, with objectives at 97.35, 96.60 and an extended 95.85.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 102.39 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 1.73 beneath Friday's settle, marked a daily high of 102.75 and a daily low of 95.15, and settled at 96.46 at 2:30 PM ET. The preserved 30-minute series on the continuous symbol places the high in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Sunday and the low in the 1:00 PM ET bar on Monday. The 30-minute closes declined from 102.43 in the first bar to 99.78 in the 8:00 AM ET bar, and the 8:30 AM ET bar closed at 97.65, 2.13 beneath the prior bar's close. That bar coincided with the news feed's 8:30 AM ET state media report on Iran's negotiating authority; the series does not establish that the report caused the move.
From the 9:00 AM ET bar to the settle the 30-minute closes ran between 95.91 and 97.47, and after the settle the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 96.26, 20 cents beneath the settlement. The 96.26 electronic print is a post-settlement quote and is labelled as such wherever it appears.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Tuesday, so Monday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 108.69 minus Pivot S3 at 85.89, divided by three, returns 7.60, and Pivot R2 at 105.72 minus Pivot S2 at 90.52, divided by two, returns the same 7.60. Three times the Pivot Point of 98.12 less the 96.46 settle gives a high plus low sum of 197.90, which solves to a high of 102.75 and a low of 95.15; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 102.39 open, 102.75 high, 95.15 low and 96.46 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday's 102.75 high sits 2.24 beneath Friday's 104.99 high and the 95.15 low sits 7.28 beneath Friday's 102.43 low, a lower high and a lower low. Settlements over the last eight sessions read 99.47, 103.27, 101.76, 99.90, 102.78, 102.00, 104.12 and 96.46, and the daily changes have alternated between gains and declines for the last five sessions: minus 1.86, plus 2.88, minus 0.78, plus 2.12 and minus 7.66. Over five sessions the contract is down 5.30 from the 101.76 settle of 10/26.
The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high and 86.00 as the one-month low. December stands 1.66 above January, so the front of the curve remains in backwardation, with the spread narrower than Friday's 1.91.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The four-hour bars for Monday's session, read from the chart, show five of the six bars closing beneath their opens. The 6:00 AM ET bar carried the largest decline, opening at 99.63 and closing at 97.11 after a low of 96.81, and the 2:00 PM ET bar was the only one to close above its open, at 96.26 from 96.17. The 1-hour and 15-minute series carry the same decline through the US morning.
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56 and 7.60, so Monday's range was the widest of the ten. The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.74, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 93.25 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 92.01.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/22/25 through Monday; the partial row of the reopened Tuesday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 101.05, the 9-day at 100.77, the 20-day at 96.82, the 50-day at 91.31, the 100-day at 83.11 and the 200-day at 77.81.
The 96.46 settle sits 4.59 beneath the 5-day average, 4.31 beneath the 9-day and 36 cents beneath the 20-day, and 5.15 above the 50-day, 13.35 above the 100-day and 18.65 above the 200-day. The 5-day average fell from Friday's 102.11 as Monday's 96.46 replaced the 10/26 settle of 101.76, while the 20-day rose from 96.41 because the 10/05 settle of 88.20 that left the window was lower than Monday's.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 87.64. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.90, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 72.51. The projection grid gives 101.22 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Tuesday and 98.22 for the 18-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:24 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, not this review's computations, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 45.44, the 14-day relative strength 50.81 and the 20-day relative strength 53.71.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 13.31 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 31.92 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 71.00 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 82.33 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 55.64 with the 9-day +DI at 20.10 and the 9-day -DI at 22.12, so negative direction now leads on the shorter system; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 45.62 with the 14-day +DI at 21.74 and the 14-day -DI at 17.44, so positive direction still leads on the longer one. The 9-day historic volatility reads 52.03 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 44.79 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is "8% BUY", with signal strength "Soft" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "100% BUY" for the prior session, "100% BUY" a week ago and "40% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "25% BUY" and the long group "67% BUY".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.97 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.88 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.20 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.89, and the 20-day average true range is 3.79 with a 20-day average daily range of 3.70. Monday's 7.60 point range was 1.96 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.97 from the 96.46 settle frames Tuesday between 92.49 and 100.43. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 93.47 to 99.45 at one deviation, 92.23 to 100.69 at two and 91.28 to 101.64 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 96.46 settle, the first references are the 9-day average stall level at 97.15, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.74, the Pivot Point at 98.12 and the 18-day average crossing price at 98.22. The 50 percent raw stochastic projection at 98.72 and one standard deviation resistance at 99.45 form the next band, followed by two standard deviations resistance at 100.69 and the 5-day average at 101.05. Pivot R1 at 101.09, the 9-day average crossing price at 101.22 and three standard deviations resistance at 101.64 are the extended references, with Monday's 102.75 high beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 96.26 post-settlement print and the 30 percent raw stochastic projection at 96.22, then the 14-day relative strength projection at 50 percent at 96.02. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49, the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 95.17, the published target price at 95.16 and Monday's 95.15 low form the next band. Pivot S1 at 93.49, one standard deviation support at 93.47 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 93.25 are the deeper references, with two standard deviations support at 92.23 and Pivot S2 at 90.52 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
The provider's commentary cited reports that crude supplies are still leaving the Middle East, including Saudi shipments tracked by a tanker-tracking service, as a factor weighing on price. No producer-group decision was captured in this review's feeds for Monday, and this review does not anticipate one.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, covering the week ending October 30. The prior report's crude draw of 1.892 million barrels appears as the previous value in the news-feed calendar. Gasoline's 8.12 percent decline outpaced crude's on Monday, and the provider's commentary described December gasoline at a three-month low for the nearest futures.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 8:30 AM ET a state media report that Iran's Supreme Leader had granted the government certain authorities regarding negotiations. In the afternoon it carried the President's remarks at 2:53 PM ET that "it's coming together nicely, that's why oil down", and the Vice President's remarks at 3:24 PM ET that he feels good about the prospects of a deal.
The provider's commentary also cited a press report that the President told Israel's prime minister he wants to give diplomacy more time. These are reports carried by the feeds and attributed commentary, not events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The December heating oil contract settled at 4.4216 and December gasoline at 2.9001, down 5.44 percent and 8.12 percent. At 42 gallons to the barrel the heating oil margin over December WTI stands at 89.25 against 92.28 on Friday and the gasoline margin at 25.34 against 28.45, so both product margins narrowed. Natural gas's December contract settled at 2.8560, per the news feed's settlement item.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.75 against 101.88. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.89 percent; Friday's close was 4.92 percent. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.51 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 1.39 percent, while the Dow rose 0.41 percent and gold's December contract rose 1.81 percent. The provider's commentary connected the decline in crude to lower inflation expectations and the dollar's decline. The moves in yields, the dollar and gold are reported here as coinciding with crude's.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report was not captured in this review. Open interest on the December contract stood at 257,459 on Friday per the settlement record; Monday's figure had not been reported in final form at the time of capture, and Monday's December volume was 357,697 contracts, the heaviest of the last eight sessions in the preserved record. Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 9.97 from 11.22.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET with the contract near the 96.46 settle and the 96.26 post-settlement print. The overnight hours may carry a response to Monday's diplomacy remarks. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 98.12, expected band roughly 95.10 to 98.20, whose top sits 8 cents above that pivot.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET, after Swiss inflation data listed at 2:30 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, which carries little direct weight for crude. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 97.74 retracement, expected band roughly 94.90 to 98.40.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, US Open / Pit Session)
Factory orders and the JOLTS report are both scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Tuesday is also the day of the midterm elections, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 94.50 to 98.80, with the 97.95 to 98.25 setup band near the upper edge; its 98.25 top sits 55 cents beneath 98.80.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Tuesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The 2:30 PM ET settlement is the reference ahead of the weekly petroleum status report scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Expected band roughly 94.30 to 99.00.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
The Tuesday evening session reopens at 6:00 PM ET. The midterm elections fall on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and a chipmaker's results are due on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 95.10 to 98.20
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 94.30 to 99.00
High-range scenario: 92.50 to 100.50
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 93.49 and one standard deviation resistance at 99.45, with a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 98.12 that stalls beneath the 50 percent stochastic projection at 98.72 weighted above a sustained recovery through Pivot R1 at 101.09. The composite fell to "8% BUY" from "100% BUY", negative direction now leads on the 9-day directional system and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages, while a 7.60 point range leaves room for large two-way swings on any headline.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 99.45, which would bring two standard deviations resistance at 100.69 and Pivot R1 at 101.09 into play and, in the review's reading, suggest Monday's decline was an overreaction to the diplomacy headlines. On the other side, a move beneath Monday's 95.15 low before any rebound would open Pivot S1 at 93.49 without the retest the setup needs.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. Construction spending, released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, as the calendar lists it, fell 1.9 percent against an expected gain, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. The US manufacturing survey rose to 55.5, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. December WTI settled at 2:30 PM ET and Brent at 2:52 PM ET, per the news feed's settlement items. Results from two large technology companies were released after the cash close on Monday, November 2, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, factory orders and the JOLTS report are scheduled for 10:00 AM ET, both as the calendar lists them, and a chipmaker's results are due the same day, as the calendar lists them, for the date only. The midterm elections take place on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the week, the weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The trade report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order driver for crude on Tuesday is the flow of headlines on US and Iran diplomacy; it ranks no scheduled US data release above that.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The settle closed the largest one-day decline of any session from 10/22/25 through Monday at 17.2 percent of the range, the composite fell to "8% BUY" with direction "Weakest", and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages. A rebound into the 97.95 to 98.25 band around the Pivot Point at 98.12 and the 18-day crossing price at 98.22 offers a short with a defined risk point above the 98.72 stochastic projection. In the review's reading, a headline can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds are sold while diplomacy headlines dominate, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 97.95 to 98.25
Stop Loss: 98.85 (above the 98.72 raw stochastic projection at 50 percent)
Target 1 (T1): 97.35 (beneath the 97.74 retracement from the four-week high)
Target 2 (T2): 96.60 (above Monday's 96.46 settle)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 95.85 (above the 95.49 retracement and Monday's 95.15 low)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 99.45 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 98.25.
Macro override: A confirmed breakdown of US and Iran talks could lift crude. In that scenario a move through the 98.85 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and one standard deviation resistance at 99.45 becomes the reference, 60 cents beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 3.97.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Monday's close on November 2, 2026 for the Tuesday, November 3, 2026 session. December is the contract the chart's continuous symbol tracks. Monday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 108.69 less Pivot S3 at 85.89, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 105.72 less Pivot S2 at 90.52, divided by two, both return 7.60. Three times the 98.12 Pivot Point less the 96.46 settle gives 197.90, which the 102.75 high and 95.15 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Monday bar carry the same 102.39 open, extremes and settle.
Monday's card was written on the December contract and is graded on the provider's December settlement row for 11/02 (open 102.39, high 102.75, low 95.15, settle 96.46, volume 357,697). The order of events within Monday comes from the preserved 30-minute bars on the continuous symbol, 46 bars from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 4:30 PM ET bar, labelled in Eastern standard time. No price move is tied to a headline by this outlook; where the review's sources tie one, that link is reported as their commentary, with its clock time and its source.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions from 10/22/25 through Monday; the partial row of the reopened Tuesday session is excluded. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:24 PM ET on Monday. Monday's volume equals the provider's dated row. Friday's 10/30 row has been revised: December volume now reads 272,385 against the 248,668 cited in Monday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 257,459. Monday's open interest had not been reported in final form at the time of capture. No weekly positioning report and no dealer-positioning dataset were read for crude; the positioning inputs are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar. Clock times are Eastern standard time, as the review and the calendar state them.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Monday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 3,969.6 on Monday, up 1.81 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
