At 4,038.2, Friday's high stopped 17.8 points short of the 4,056 to 4,062 short band we set for the session, and it came early, in the 6:30 PM ET bar on Thursday evening. The band never traded. December gold settled at 3,898.9 at 1:30 PM ET, down 132.5 points, or 3.29 percent, from Thursday's 4,031.4. The 3,879.3 low printed later, in the 3:30 PM ET bar.
It was the largest one-day decline since 09/28/26. The 158.9 point range was the widest since that day. The dollar index eased to 101.88 from 102.04, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.93 percent against 4.98 percent. The review assigns no cause to the decline. Monday's primary setup is another short, from 3,930 to 3,940, a band that holds the 3,938.8 Pivot Point. The settle sits 31.1 points beneath it.
December gold settled at 3,898.9, the lowest settle of any session from 10/20/25 through Friday, 39.9 points beneath the 3,938.8 Pivot Point and 99.4 beneath Pivot R1 at 3,998.3. Every settlement average sits above it, from the 5-day at 4,019.0 to the 200-day at 4,591.7. The primary setup for Monday is a short from 3,930 to 3,940, with the Pivot Point inside the band, stop 3,960, and targets 3,910, 3,885 and an extended 3,860. The band sits above the market. Target 1 sits 11.1 points above the settle and Target 2 13.9 beneath it. The composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strongest". Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, after US daylight saving time ends, as the calendar lists it.
Friday's 4,038.2 high stopped 17.8 short of the 4,056 to 4,062 short band
In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 4,056 to 4,062, stop 4,078, with targets at 4,040, 4,021 and an extended 4,002. Its status line put the contract at 4,031.4 at the Thursday settle, 24.6 points beneath the band. Friday's bar, from the review and the dated 2026-10-30 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 4,033.6 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen. That was 2.2 above Thursday's settle and 22.4 beneath the band. It marked a high of 4,038.2 and a low of 3,879.3 and settled at 3,898.9. The band did not trade.
This time the bars give the order. The 30-minute series places the high in the 6:30 PM ET bar on Thursday evening, the second bar of the session. It sat 17.8 beneath the 4,056 band bottom, 23.8 beneath the 4,062 top and 39.8 beneath the 4,078 stop. Neither the band nor the stop traded. No bar closed above 4,033.5, so the card's acceptance test, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,062, was not met. The settle finished 157.1 beneath the band bottom. It sat 182.8 beneath the invalidation line, a settle above Thursday's 4,081.7 high. No fill and no result is asserted.
The first target never traded. At 4,040 it sat 1.8 above Friday's high and 6.4 above the open. The whole session ran beneath it. The 4,021 second target first traded in the 7:30 PM ET bar on Thursday. The extended 4,002 was reached in the 11:00 PM ET bar, whose low was exactly 4,002.0, and the settle finished 103.1 beneath it. Those prints carry no result for the card. The band never traded.
The path call did not hold. Our Friday outlook weighted a hold between the 52-week low at 3,989.1 and Thursday's 4,081.7 high, with a rebound toward one standard deviation resistance at 4,056.1 that fails beneath Pivot R1 weighted slightly above a direct break of the 52-week low. No rebound came. The high, in the second bar, stopped 17.9 beneath 4,056.1 and 4.9 beneath the 4,043.1 Pivot Point. The 3,989.1 low gave way in the 2:30 AM ET bar on Friday. The session low, 109.8 beneath it, came last, in the 3:30 PM ET bar after the settle.
The other branch played out. That outlook said a fall through Pivot S1 at 4,004.6 would bring the 52-week low at 3,989.1 and Pivot S2 at 3,977.7 into play without the rebound the setup needs. The bars show that order. Pivot S1 first traded in the 11:00 PM ET bar on Thursday, 3,989.1 in the 2:30 AM ET bar and Pivot S2 in the 3:30 AM ET bar on Friday. Pivot S3 at 3,939.2 followed in the 9:30 AM ET bar. No later bar came back to the band. The outlook's alternative, a settle above Thursday's 4,081.7 high, did not occur.
The range work broke at the bottom. Friday's low went 130.7 beneath the low-range case bottom of 4,010, 115.7 beneath the most likely bottom of 3,995 and 75.7 beneath the high-range bottom of 3,955. The 3,955 line first gave way in the 9:00 AM ET bar. The top held. The high sat 21.8 beneath 4,060, 36.8 beneath 4,075 and 66.8 beneath 4,105. The 3,956.0 bottom of the average-true-range envelope went in the same 9:00 AM ET bar, and the settle finished 57.1 beneath it. Three deviations support at 3,988.7 first traded in the 2:30 AM ET bar, and the settle finished 89.8 beneath it.
The session bands can be scored this time. The night band of 4,005 to 4,060 held at the top, but the night low of 3,987.6 went 17.4 beneath its bottom. London's 4,000 to 4,065 band saw a high of 4,009.2 and a low of 3,973.7, 26.3 beneath. The morning band of 3,995 to 4,075 missed entirely. From 9:30 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET the contract traded between 3,900.9 and 3,956.0, wholly beneath it. The afternoon traded from 3,879.3 to 3,912.6, also wholly beneath its 3,985 to 4,080 band.
The macro override named a labour-cost reading taken as easing pressure on rates, or a sharp fall in the dollar. Per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, the employment cost index rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast. The dollar index eased 0.16. The stop never traded. We grade the card as written.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-10-30 row of the provider's daily record reads 4,033.6, 4,038.2, 3,879.3 and 3,898.9 on 230,038 contracts. The review states the same prices and volume. Friday's open interest was not yet reported; the row's field reads 0, a placeholder. Thursday's 2026-10-29 row was revised. It now carries 142,006 contracts against the preliminary 138,508 our Friday outlook carried, and open interest of 275,161, which that outlook listed as not yet reported. The review cites the same 275,161 for Thursday.
The 3,930 to 3,940 band, the 3,938.8 Pivot Point and one deviation resistance at 3,968.0
Resistance starts close. The 30 percent relative strength projection at 3,915.7 sits 16.8 above the settle, and the band follows. The Pivot Point at 3,938.8 sits inside it, 8.8 above the 3,930 bottom and 1.2 beneath the 3,940 top. Just above, the 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 3,948.4 sits 8.4 over the top. The 3,960 stop sits 11.6 above that projection. It sits 8.0 beneath one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0.
The next group is tight. One average true range above the settle lands at 3,980.3, then the 30 percent raw stochastic projection at 3,982.9 and the prior week's 3,989.1 low. Two standard deviations resistance at 3,996.6 and Pivot R1 at 3,998.3 sit 1.7 apart. Above them come the 14-day %K stall level at 4,001.4, the 10/23 settle of 4,007.9, the 4,012.2 weekly open and Thursday's 4,016.3 low. Three standard deviations resistance at 4,018.6 and the 5-day average at 4,019.0 sit 0.4 apart. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,024.3 closes the group.
Friday's own prints come next. Thursday's 4,031.4 settle, Friday's 4,033.6 open and the 4,038.2 high span 6.8 points. The 10/26 settle of 4,038.4 and the 9-day crossing price at 4,039.2 sit just above, the crossing price 1.0 over Friday's high. The 9-day average at 4,050.6, Wednesday's 4,051.6 settle and the 10/22 settle of 4,060.4 follow. Then come the 50 percent retracement at 4,069.1, the 10/27 settle of 4,074.6 and Thursday's 4,081.7 high. The 4,097.2 weekly high and Pivot R2 at 4,097.7 sit 0.5 apart. The 18-day crossing price at 4,106.8, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,114.0 and the 20-day average at 4,115.0 are next.
The rest is distant. It takes in Pivot R3 at 4,157.2, the 10/02 settle of 4,162.3, the prior week's 4,211.2 high and the 4,259.0 one-month high. The 100-day at 4,264.2, the 50-day at 4,294.8 and the 200-day at 4,591.7 follow. The 52-week high stands at 5,781.8.
Support starts at the last print. The final 30-minute close, 3,884.9 in the 4:30 PM ET bar, sits 14.0 beneath the settle. Friday's 3,879.3 low sits 19.6 beneath it. That low is the provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. The published target price at 3,861.2 is next, 37.7 beneath the settle. Pivot S1 at 3,839.4 and one standard deviation support at 3,829.8 follow, 59.5 and 69.1 beneath. One average true range beneath the settle lands at 3,817.5. Two standard deviations support at 3,801.2 and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 3,791.3 come after it. Pivot S2 at 3,779.9 and three standard deviations support at 3,779.2 sit 0.7 apart, 119.0 beneath the settle. The extended references are the 20 percent relative strength projection at 3,682.8 and Pivot S3 at 3,680.5.
Every average sits above the settle. The gaps run 120.1 to the 5-day at 4,019.0, 151.7 to the 9-day at 4,050.6 and 216.1 to the 20-day at 4,115.0. They widen to 395.9 to the 50-day at 4,294.8, 365.3 to the 100-day at 4,264.2 and 692.8 to the 200-day at 4,591.7. The 5-day fell 21.8 from 4,040.8 as the 10/23 settle of 4,007.9 left its window. The 20-day fell 13.2 from 4,128.2 as the 10/02 settle of 4,162.3 dropped out. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,414.6, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,233.6 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,919.3. Monday's crossing prices are 4,039.2 for the 9-day and 4,106.8 for the 18-day. December trades beneath February. The February contract settled at 3,930.9, 32.0 above December, against 33.7 on Thursday.
Momentum sits near the bottom of its scales. Relative strength reads 23.11 on the 9-day, 27.86 on the 14-day and 31.95 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 6.63 percent on the 9-day and 5.67 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 15.69 percent sits beneath %D at 22.24 percent. Sellers lead on direction. On the 9-day, negative direction at 39.54 leads positive at 9.70 with the ADX at 38.54; on the 14-day, 33.90 leads 10.91 with the ADX at 29.33. Historic volatility reads 19.70 percent on the 9-day and 19.42 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings, taken at 6:23 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed for the weekend.
The composite read published for Monday reads "88% SELL", with signal strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest". The prior session and a week ago both read "88% SELL". A month ago it read "80% SELL". The short-horizon group reads "Average: 100% SELL", the medium-horizon "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-horizon "Average: 33% SELL". The composite trend indicator reads sell.
Friday's 158.9 point range was 2.17 times the 14-day average daily range of 73.3. The high sat 43.5 beneath Thursday's 4,081.7 and the low 137.0 beneath Thursday's 4,016.3. That made a lower high, a lower low and a third lower settle in a row. The open sat 2.2 above Thursday's settle. At 12.3 percent of the range, the settle sat 19.6 above the low and 139.3 beneath the high. The body ran 134.7 points beneath the open. The four-hour bars closed at 4,017.8, 4,001.2, 4,002.1, 3,929.5, 3,893.1 and 3,884.9. Only the 2:00 AM ET bar closed above its open. The 6:00 AM ET bar carried the largest decline, 72.2 points, from 4,001.7 to 3,929.5.
The week printed a lower high and a lower low. Its bar opened at 4,012.2 and closed at 3,898.9, with a high of 4,097.2 and a low of 3,879.3, against the prior week's 4,211.2 high and 3,989.1 low. Over five sessions the contract is down 109.0 from the 4,007.9 settle of 10/23. Settlements over seven sessions ran 4,060.4, 4,007.9, 4,038.4, 4,074.6, 4,051.6, 4,031.4 and 3,898.9. Changes over ten sessions ran minus 21.0, minus 17.5, plus 7.4, minus 89.6, minus 52.5, plus 30.5, plus 36.2, minus 23.0, minus 20.2 and minus 132.5. Daily ranges ran 55.6, 44.8, 38.3, 127.5, 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4 and 158.9 points.
The 14-day average true range stands at 81.4 points, with the 14-day average daily range at 73.3. The 9-day figures are 80.7 and 76.4, and the 20-day 84.2 and 72.4. One average true range either side of the settle spans 3,817.5 to 3,980.3. The deviation bands are built from five settlements. They run 3,829.8 to 3,968.0, 3,801.2 to 3,996.6 and 3,779.2 to 4,018.6, and describe dispersion, not intraday reach. The retracement grid for Monday sits wholly above the settle: 4,024.3, 4,069.1 and 4,114.0.
A softer dollar, a lower yield and a 3.29 percent fall in gold
The dollar eased. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.88, down 0.16 from Thursday's 102.04. The provider's commentary described safe-haven demand for the dollar during the equity decline, offset by a lower ten-year yield. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.93 percent against 4.98 percent. Gold fell 3.29 percent while both eased, so Friday's decline did not track either. No real-yield series was captured, so no real-yield level is asserted.
Stocks and metals fell together. The S&P 500 cash index fell 1.82 percent, and the volatility index closed at 19.42 against 17.20. Silver's December contract fell 5.93 percent to 49.276, so the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 79.12 from 76.96. December WTI crude went the other way, up 2.08 percent to 104.12. Gold fell alongside equities while the dollar and yields eased. No gold-specific headline was captured in the news feeds, and the review assigns no cause to the decline.
Data came on schedule. The employment cost index was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, German consumer prices rose 2.80 percent from a year earlier against a 3 percent forecast. Euro-area GDP grew 0.4 percent on the quarter against 0.2 percent, also per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Federal Reserve speakers were listed for Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and no remarks from them were captured.
Policy is on hold. The FOMC statement released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, kept policy unchanged on a 10 to 2 vote, with two dissents in favour of a 25 basis point increase, per the news feed.
The feeds carried Gulf headlines. The news feed carried Friday reports of a Houthi attack on Aden airport, of vessels hit by projectiles near Lavan Island and in the Strait of Hormuz, and of a fourth tanker striking a mine in the strait. The news feed also carried the President's remark at 4:01 PM ET that "there are talks" with Iran. That remark came after the 1:30 PM ET settle. The provider's commentary tied the dollar's safe-haven support to concern over possible US action against Iran after Tuesday's elections. These are reports carried by the feeds, not events confirmed for this review. Gold fell on a day the feeds carried escalation headlines; the review draws no causal link.
No structural demand figure was available. Central-bank purchase figures, Chinese reference rates and bullion-fund holdings were not captured, so none is asserted.
The positioning report carries an October 27 date. It puts managed-money long positions at 122,508 contracts, up 1,538, and short positions at 16,946, up 182. That makes a net long of 105,562, up 1,356 from the October 20 report. Commercial long positions stand at 64,109 against short positions of 279,733. The report says nothing about Friday's trade. Open interest on the December contract stood at 275,161 on Thursday against 278,582 on Wednesday, down 3,421. Friday's open interest was not yet reported. Friday's December volume was 230,038 contracts against a revised 142,006 on Thursday, up 88,032 or 62.0 percent.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:19 PM ET on Friday, after the settle, with a page date of 2026-10-30; every figure below is that evening read, as of its read time. The fund is a proxy, used qualitatively only and never translated into futures prices; it tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract. At the read, the console still carried Thursday's 368.57 as its last close. It showed a current price of 355.22, down 3.62 percent. It placed its largest gamma concentration at the 380 strike, the hedge level at 370, the call side ceiling at 400 and the put side support base at 350. At that read the current price sat 14.78 beneath the hedge level and 5.22 above the put side base.
Modeled call gamma read minus 452.13 million against put gamma of minus 556.76 million on the proxy. Aggregate gamma was negative on both sides, with the put side larger by 104.63 million. Call volume of 165.13 thousand against put volume of 141.05 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only. Options volume says nothing about direction or demand. Then volatility. One-month implied volatility read 20.18 percent against realised volatility of 17.00 percent. The implied-volatility rank read 8.72 percent and the skew rank 24.80 percent. The options-implied move was 4.69 dollars, about 1.32 percent of the 355.22 current price.
These are readings taken at 6:19 PM ET on Friday, after the session's prints, and they describe that moment only. In the review's interpretation, negative aggregate gamma with the fund beneath its hedge level at that read is consistent with hedging that can extend moves. At the same read the implied-volatility rank of 8.72 percent was low, with implied volatility 3.18 points above realised. Modeled gamma on a proxy stays a non-directional lens. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded, and no fund figure sets a futures level here.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a short. Its band runs 3,930 to 3,940 and holds the Pivot Point at 3,938.8, 1.2 beneath the top. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Negative direction leads on both directional systems, and Friday printed the lowest settle of any session from 10/20/25 through Friday. The composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strongest". The band sits 31.1 to 41.1 points above the settle. Risk sits above the stochastic projection. The 3,960 stop sits 11.6 above 3,948.4 and 8.0 beneath one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0. Targets step down. The first, 3,910, sits 5.7 beneath the 30 percent relative strength projection at 3,915.7 and 11.1 above the settle. Then comes 3,885, 13.9 beneath the settle and 5.7 above Friday's 3,879.3 low. It sits 0.1 above the 3,884.9 final close. The extended 3,860 sits 1.2 beneath the published target price at 3,861.2. The review names the case against the trade. The 9-day relative strength reading of 23.11 leaves room for a sharp rebound. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
The weekend stretches the gap. Globex halted at 5:00 PM ET on Friday and reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, after US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET that morning, as the calendar lists it. Monday's clock times are standard time. In the review's words, two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the reopen. The last 30-minute bar before the halt closed at 3,884.9, 14.0 beneath the settle. The reopen starts from a reference beneath Friday's settlement.
Gap references run both ways. Above sit the 3,898.9 settle, the 30 percent relative strength projection at 3,915.7 and the Pivot Point at 3,938.8. Beneath sit the 3,884.9 final close, Friday's 3,879.3 low, the published target price at 3,861.2 and Pivot S1 at 3,839.4. The review's night bias is lower beneath the Pivot Point, with an expected band of roughly 3,850 to 3,930. That band's top meets the 3,930 bottom of the setup band.
European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET. Manufacturing surveys are listed for Monday morning, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The review's London band runs roughly 3,845 to 3,945, with a neutral to lower bias beneath the Pivot Point. Its top sits 5.0 above the 3,940 band top.
Data arrive at 10:00 AM ET. Construction spending is scheduled then, as the calendar lists it, and the US manufacturing survey is listed for Monday morning, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. In the review's view the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open is the cross-asset test after Friday's joint decline. The morning band runs roughly 3,840 to 3,960. The setup band's 3,940 top sits 20.0 beneath its upper edge.
The afternoon brings one listing. The senior loan officer survey is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it, and gold settles at 1:30 PM ET. The afternoon band runs roughly 3,830 to 3,970.
For the full session the review sets a low-range case of 3,860 to 3,940, a mid-range case, the most likely, of 3,830 to 3,970 and a high-range case of 3,780 to 4,000. That last case runs 37.5 beyond the 3,817.5 average-true-range mark at the bottom. At the top it sits 3.4 above two standard deviations resistance. Later in the week, the midterm elections fall on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The JOLTS report is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 3,779.9 and two standard deviations resistance at 3,996.6. Within it, a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 3,938.8 that fails beneath one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0 is weighted above a sustained recovery. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative that would invalidate the reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 3,998.3. That would open the 4,024.3 retracement and Friday's 4,038.2 high. A reopen beneath Friday's 3,879.3 low would instead bring the published target price at 3,861.2 and Pivot S1 at 3,839.4 into play without the rebound the setup needs. In the review's judgment the first-order event for gold on Monday is the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET, which prices the weekend's headlines against Friday's 52-week low.
Friday's high came half an hour into the session. It stopped 17.8 points short of the band.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 3,898.9 on Friday, down 132.5 or 3.29 percent from Thursday's settle of 4,031.4, after trading between 4,038.2 and 3,879.3, a 158.9 point daily range. The settle finished at 12.3 percent of the range, and the range was 2.17 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 73.3 points. Friday's high sat 43.5 beneath Thursday's 4,081.7 high and Friday's low sat 137.0 beneath Thursday's 4,016.3 low, so the session printed a lower high and a lower low and a third consecutive lower settle. The 132.5 point decline was the largest one-day decline since the 152.8 point decline of 09/28/26, and the 158.9 point range the widest since 172.7 on the same day.
The 3,898.9 settle is the lowest settlement of any session from 10/20/25 through Friday, and the 3,879.3 low is the provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. Silver's December contract fell 5.93 percent, so the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 79.12 from 76.96. The S&P 500 cash index fell 1.82 percent and the dollar index's daily record eased to 101.88 from 102.04. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.93 percent; Thursday's close was 4.98 percent. Gold therefore fell alongside equities while the dollar and yields eased. No gold-specific headline was captured in the news feeds for this review, and this review does not assign a cause to the decline.
Electronic trade after the 1:30 PM ET settlement ended the week at 3,884.9 in the final 30-minute bar, 14.0 beneath the settle, so the Sunday reopen starts from a reference beneath Friday's settlement.
The composite multi-indicator read is "88% SELL", with strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest", against "88% SELL" in the prior session's snapshot. The settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 3,930 to 3,940 band around the Pivot Point at 3,938.8, stopped at 3,960, with objectives at 3,910, 3,885 and an extended 3,860.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 4,033.6 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.2 above Thursday's settle, marked a daily high of 4,038.2 and a daily low of 3,879.3, and settled at 3,898.9 at 1:30 PM ET. The 30-minute series for the continuous contract places the high in the 6:30 PM ET bar on Thursday evening and the low in the 3:30 PM ET bar on Friday, after the settlement. Five of the session's six four-hour bars closed beneath their opens, and the 6:00 AM ET bar carried the largest four-hour decline, from 4,001.7 to 3,929.5.
Because Globex does not reopen until Sunday, the open, high and low on the provider's overview page belong to Friday's completed session. The published pivot ladder for the next session was computed from those inputs. Pivot R3 at 4,157.2 minus Pivot S3 at 3,680.5, divided by three, returns 158.9, and Pivot R2 at 4,097.7 minus Pivot S2 at 3,779.9, divided by two, returns the same 158.9. Three times the Pivot Point of 3,938.8 less the 3,898.9 settle gives a high plus low sum of 7,917.5, which the pair of 4,038.2 and 3,879.3 reproduces exactly, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar carry the same 4,033.6 open, 4,038.2 high, 3,879.3 low and 3,898.9 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday's 4,038.2 high sits 43.5 beneath Thursday's 4,081.7 high and the 3,879.3 low sits 137.0 beneath Thursday's 4,016.3 low. Settlements over the last seven sessions read 4,060.4, 4,007.9, 4,038.4, 4,074.6, 4,051.6, 4,031.4 and 3,898.9, so the last three sessions each settled lower. Over five sessions the contract is down 109.0 from the 4,007.9 settle of 10/23.
The weekly bar on the chart opened at 4,012.2 and closed at 3,898.9, with a high of 4,097.2 and a low of 3,879.3, against the prior week's 4,211.2 high and 3,989.1 low, so the week printed a lower high and a lower low. The provider publishes 3,879.3 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low, 4,259.0 as the one-month high and 5,781.8 as the 52-week high.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The four-hour bars for Friday's session closed at 4,017.8, 4,001.2, 4,002.1, 3,929.5, 3,893.1 and 3,884.9, with only the 2:00 AM ET bar closing above its open. The 1-hour and 15-minute series carry the same sequence.
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 55.6, 44.8, 38.3, 127.5, 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4 and 158.9. The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,024.3, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 4,069.1 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,114.0, all above Friday's settle.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions from 10/20/25 through Friday; each is carried at full precision and rounded once to the 0.1 tick. The 5-day average stands at 4,019.0, the 9-day at 4,050.6, the 20-day at 4,115.0, the 50-day at 4,294.8, the 100-day at 4,264.2 and the 200-day at 4,591.7.
The 3,898.9 settle sits 120.1 beneath the 5-day average, 151.7 beneath the 9-day, 216.1 beneath the 20-day, 395.9 beneath the 50-day, 365.3 beneath the 100-day and 692.8 beneath the 200-day. The 5-day average fell from Thursday's 4,040.8 as the 10/23 settle of 4,007.9 left the window, and the 20-day fell from 4,128.2 as the 10/02 settle of 4,162.3 left that window.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,414.6. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 4,233.6, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,919.3. The projection grid gives 4,039.2 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Monday and 4,106.8 for the 18-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:23 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed for the weekend; they are the provider's readings, not computations made for this review. The 9-day relative strength reads 23.11, the 14-day relative strength 27.86 and the 20-day relative strength 31.95.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 6.63 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 5.67 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 15.69 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 22.24 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 38.54 with the 9-day +DI at 9.70 and the 9-day -DI at 39.54; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 29.33 with the 14-day +DI at 10.91 and the 14-day -DI at 33.90, so negative direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 19.70 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 19.42 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Monday session is "88% SELL", with signal strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "80% SELL" a month ago. The short-horizon group averages "Average: 100% SELL", the medium-horizon group "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-horizon group "Average: 33% SELL", and the composite trend indicator reads sell.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 81.4 points and the 14-day average daily range at 73.3 points; the 9-day average true range is 80.7 with a 9-day average daily range of 76.4, and the 20-day average true range is 84.2 with a 20-day average daily range of 72.4. Friday's 158.9 point range was 2.17 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 81.4 from the 3,898.9 settle frames Monday between 3,817.5 and 3,980.3. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 3,829.8 to 3,968.0 at one deviation, 3,801.2 to 3,996.6 at two and 3,779.2 to 4,018.6 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 3,898.9 settle, the first references are 3,915.7, where the 14-day relative strength would reach 30 percent, the Pivot Point at 3,938.8 and 3,948.4, where the 14-3 day raw stochastic would reach 20 percent. One standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0, the 3,980.3 average-true-range mark, 3,982.9 as the 30 percent raw stochastic projection, the prior week's 3,989.1 low, two standard deviations resistance at 3,996.6 and Pivot R1 at 3,998.3 form the next band, followed by 4,001.4 as the stall level of the 14-day %K line, the 10/23 settle of 4,007.9, the 4,012.2 weekly open, Thursday's 4,016.3 low, three standard deviations resistance at 4,018.6, the 5-day average at 4,019.0 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 4,024.3. Thursday's 4,031.4 settle, Friday's 4,033.6 open, Friday's 4,038.2 high, the 10/26 settle of 4,038.4, the 9-day average crossing price at 4,039.2, the 9-day average at 4,050.6, Wednesday's 4,051.6 settle, the 10/22 settle of 4,060.4, the 50 percent retracement at 4,069.1, the 10/27 settle of 4,074.6, Thursday's 4,081.7 high, the 4,097.2 weekly high and Pivot R2 at 4,097.7 are the extended references, with the 18-day crossing price at 4,106.8, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,114.0, the 20-day average at 4,115.0 and Pivot R3 at 4,157.2 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 3,884.9 post-settlement print and Friday's 3,879.3 low, the published 52-week low. The published target price at 3,861.2, Pivot S1 at 3,839.4 and one standard deviation support at 3,829.8 form the next band, with the 3,817.5 average-true-range mark, two standard deviations support at 3,801.2 and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 3,791.3 beneath. Pivot S2 at 3,779.9 and three standard deviations support at 3,779.2 sit 0.7 apart, and Pivot S3 at 3,680.5 and 3,682.8, the 20 percent relative strength projection, are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.88 against 102.04 on Thursday, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.93 percent; Thursday's close was 4.98 percent. The provider's commentary described safe-haven demand for the dollar during the equity decline, offset by a lower ten-year yield. Gold fell 3.29 percent while both the dollar and nominal yields eased, so Friday's decline did not track either. No real-yield series was captured for this review.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
The FOMC statement released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, kept policy unchanged on a 10 to 2 vote with two dissents in favour of a 25 basis point increase, per the news feed. Federal Reserve speakers were listed for Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and no remarks from them were captured. The employment cost index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried Friday reports of a Houthi attack on Aden airport, of vessels hit by projectiles near Lavan Island and in the Strait of Hormuz, and of a fourth tanker striking a mine in the strait, alongside the President's remark at 4:01 PM ET that "there are talks" with Iran. The provider's commentary tied the dollar's safe-haven support to concern over possible US action against Iran after Tuesday's elections. These are reports carried by the feeds, not events confirmed for this review, and gold fell on a day the feeds carried escalation headlines.
4.4 China and Structural Demand (Central Bank Buying, PBOC, ETF Flows)
Central-bank purchase figures, Chinese reference rates and bullion-fund holdings were not captured for this review, so this section asserts no structural demand reading. The gold fund console's options figures appear in section 5 and are used qualitatively only.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
December WTI crude rose 2.08 percent to 104.12 while the S&P 500 cash index fell 1.82 percent and the volatility index closed at 19.42; Thursday's close was 17.20. Silver's December contract fell 5.93 percent to 49.276, and the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 79.12 from 76.96. The February contract settled 32.0 above December, against 33.7 on Thursday; its settlement was 3,930.9.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, ETF Holdings, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report as of October 27, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed-money long positions at 122,508 contracts, up 1,538, against short positions of 16,946, up 182, and commercial long positions at 64,109 against short positions of 279,733. The report carries an October 27 date. Open interest on the December contract stood at 275,161 on Thursday against 278,582 on Wednesday, and Friday's December volume was 230,038 contracts.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at 6:19 PM ET on Friday, after the settle, with a page date of 2026-10-30; every figure in this section is that evening read. The fund proxy is used qualitatively only and is never translated into futures prices; the fund tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract.
The console still carried Thursday's 368.57 as its last closing price and showed a current price of 355.22, down 3.62 percent. It places the largest gamma concentration at the 380 strike, the hedge level at 370, the call side ceiling at 400 and the put side support base at 350, so the fund's current price sits beneath the hedge level and above the put side base. Modeled call gamma reads minus 452.13 million against put gamma of minus 556.76 million, so aggregate gamma is negative on both sides with the put side larger. Call volume of 165.13 thousand against put volume of 141.05 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest.
One-month implied volatility reads 20.18 percent against realised volatility of 17.00 percent, the implied-volatility rank 8.72 percent and the skew rank 24.80 percent, with an options-implied move of 4.69 dollars. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded.
In this review's interpretation, negative aggregate gamma at that read, with the fund beneath its hedge level, is consistent with hedging that can extend moves, and at the same read the implied-volatility rank was low. Nothing in this section is used to set a futures level; every level in this review originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex halted at 5:00 PM ET on Friday and reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, after US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET that morning, as the calendar lists it. Two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the reopen. Gap references run both ways: above, Friday's 3,898.9 settle, the Pivot Point at 3,938.8 and 3,915.7, the 30 percent relative strength projection; beneath, the 3,884.9 post-settlement print, Friday's 3,879.3 low, the published target price at 3,861.2 and Pivot S1 at 3,839.4. Bias lower beneath the Pivot Point at 3,938.8, expected band roughly 3,850 to 3,930.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
From 3:00 AM ET European trading opens with manufacturing surveys listed for Monday morning by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 3,938.8, expected band roughly 3,845 to 3,945.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, US Open)
Construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the US manufacturing survey is listed for Monday morning by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The equity cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the cross-asset test after Friday's joint decline. Expected band roughly 3,840 to 3,960, with the 3,930 to 3,940 setup band near the top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
The senior loan officer survey is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The settlement at 1:30 PM ET is the reference for the session. Expected band roughly 3,830 to 3,970.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The Monday evening session carries into Tuesday's midterm elections, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the JOLTS report scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 3,860 to 3,940
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 3,830 to 3,970
High-range scenario: 3,780 to 4,000
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 3,779.9 and two standard deviations resistance at 3,996.6, with a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 3,938.8 that fails beneath one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0 weighted above a sustained recovery. The composite reads "88% SELL" with direction "Strongest", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath every settlement average, while the 9-day relative strength reading of 23.11 shows how stretched the decline has become.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 3,998.3, which would open the 4,024.3 retracement and Friday's 4,038.2 high. On the other side, a reopen beneath Friday's 3,879.3 low would bring the published target price at 3,861.2 and Pivot S1 at 3,839.4 into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The employment cost index released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. German consumer prices rose 2.80 percent from a year earlier against a 3 percent forecast and euro-area GDP grew 0.4 percent on the quarter against 0.2 percent, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Gold settled at 1:30 PM ET.
Over the weekend US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it, so Monday's clock times are in standard time. On Monday, November 2, 2026, construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET and the senior loan officer survey for 2:00 PM ET, both as the calendar lists it; the US and European manufacturing surveys are listed for Monday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, the midterm elections fall on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, the JOLTS report is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the employment situation report for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, both as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order event for gold on Monday is the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET, which prices the weekend's headlines against Friday's 52-week low.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The composite reads "88% SELL" with strength "Maximum" and direction "Strongest", negative direction leads on both directional systems, and Friday printed the lowest settle of any session from 10/20/25 through Friday with the settle beneath every settlement average. A rebound into the 3,930 to 3,940 band around the Pivot Point at 3,938.8 offers a short with a defined risk point beneath one standard deviation resistance. The 9-day relative strength reading of 23.11 leaves room for a sharp rebound, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 3,930 to 3,940
Stop Loss: 3,960 (above 3,948.4 as the 20 percent raw stochastic projection and beneath one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0)
Target 1 (T1): 3,910 (beneath 3,915.7 as the 30 percent relative strength projection)
Target 2 (T2): 3,885 (above Friday's 3,879.3 low)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 3,860 (beneath the published target price at 3,861.2)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 3,968.0 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 3,940.
Macro override: A sharp equity recovery with a weaker dollar, or an escalation that restores safe-haven demand, would support gold. In that scenario a move through the 3,960 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Pivot R1 at 3,998.3 becomes the reference, 38.3 points beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 81.4.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 30, 2026 for the Monday, November 2, 2026 session. Friday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Monday: Pivot R3 at 4,157.2 less Pivot S3 at 3,680.5, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,097.7 less Pivot S2 at 3,779.9, divided by two, both return 158.9, and three times the 3,938.8 Pivot Point less the settle gives 7,917.5, which the 4,038.2 high and the 3,879.3 low reproduce exactly. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Friday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. Only those figures, the dated 2026-10-30 row of the provider's daily record, Friday's 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Friday's card. The 30-minute bars run from the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the bar that opened at 4:30 PM ET on Friday, labelled in Eastern time; each timed statement here names the bar in which a price first traded. Globex is closed for the weekend, so the open, high and low on the provider's overview page belong to Friday's completed session.
Thursday's 2026-10-29 row has been revised since our Friday outlook: volume now reads 142,006 contracts against the preliminary 138,508, and open interest 275,161, which that outlook listed as not yet reported; Thursday's prices are unchanged. Friday's open interest was not yet reported, because the 2026-10-30 row carries a placeholder of 0. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 260 completed sessions through Friday and rounded once to the 0.1 tick; the oscillators and range measures are cited as published, read at 6:23 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The percent change for the dollar index, the volume and open interest changes, the managed-money net figures and the fund's implied move as a percent are computed from the stated figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Friday outlook covers the December WTI contract, which settled at 104.12 on Friday, up 2.08 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
