Nasdaq Futures 28,384.50: Short 28,600 to 28,640 Into PPI

Executive Summary

The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,384.50 on Thursday, down 88.75 or 0.31 percent from Wednesday's settle of 28,473.25, after trading between 28,652.25 and 28,013.75, a 638.50 point daily range. The settle finished at 58.1 percent of the range, 370.75 above the low and 267.75 beneath the high, and the range was 0.72 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 888.95 points. Thursday printed a lower high, 44.75 beneath Wednesday's 28,697.00, and a higher low, 166.00 above Wednesday's 27,847.75, an inside day.

The 638.50 point range is the narrowest since the 593.00 point range of 11/10/26. Over five sessions the contract is up 1,632.50 from the 26,752.00 settle of 11/05/26, a gain of 6.10 percent. The settle sits above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages and beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day, 137.00 beneath the 200-day at 28,521.50. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,289.19, down 0.30 percent, so the December contract settled 95.31 above cash.

The session reversed twice. The contract fell to 28,013.75 in the 8:00 AM ET bar, the session low, as that bar fell 95.75, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar; at 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the US President's remark that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and that bar's decline and the remark coincided. From the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract rose 511.50 by the close of the 11:00 AM ET bar, which made the 28,652.25 high, with the 9:30 AM ET bar alone rising 295.00, the largest gain of any bar. It then gave back 350.25 to a 28,302.00 low in the 3:30 PM ET bar before settling at 28,384.50.

The provider's market commentary attributed Thursday's decline to a slump of about 4 percent in Nvidia shares after the company's chief executive resigned and was replaced on an interim basis by the chief financial officer, and to crude's rally and a jump in Treasury yields after the President's comments on Iran, which is attributed commentary. The semiconductor index closed down 0.54 percent and the ten-year yield index at 5.10. After the close, Applied Materials and Cisco reported results above the estimates carried by the news feed.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening is "40% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest", against "48% SELL" a session earlier. The primary setup below is a short from the 28,600 to 28,640 band, above the 200-day average and beneath Thursday's 28,652.25 high, stopped at 28,760, with objectives at 28,480, 28,340 and an extended 28,200. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and in this review's judgment it is the first-order scheduled input for the index on Friday through yields.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Thursday session opened at 28,306.25 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 167.00 beneath Wednesday's settle, after Wednesday's after-close press reports on Nvidia's chief executive. Between the reopen and 3:00 AM ET the 30-minute series on CME_MINI:NQ1! held between 28,131.75, in the 6:00 PM ET bar, and 28,368.75, in the 9:00 PM ET bar, and the window closed at 28,215.25.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 28,013.75 and 28,312.75 and closed the window at 28,064.25. The 8:00 AM ET bar fell 95.75 from 28,182.00 to 28,086.25 and made the session low of 28,013.75, with a 228.75 point span.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 28,044.50, in the 9:30 AM ET bar, and 28,652.25, in the 11:00 AM ET bar. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 295.00 from 28,064.00 to 28,359.00 with a 354.00 point span, the widest of the session, and the 10:30 AM ET bar rose 223.25 to 28,537.00 with a 298.00 point span. From the 11:30 AM ET bar the contract drifted lower: the 11:30 AM ET bar fell 46.25, the 12:00 PM ET bar 50.00 and the 1:30 PM ET bar 62.00, and the 3:30 PM ET bar made a 28,302.00 low before closing at 28,387.75. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,401.50, 17.00 above the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:22 PM ET, carries an open of 28,399.25, a high of 28,488.00 and a low of 28,393.50 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, not to Thursday's completed session; its previous close field reads 28,384.50. Thursday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 29,325.08 minus Pivot S3 at 27,409.58, divided by three, returns 638.50, and Pivot R2 at 28,988.67 minus Pivot S2 at 27,711.67, divided by two, returns the same 638.50. The published Pivot Point is 28,350.17. Three times that value, less the 28,384.50 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 56,666.01, within the rounding of the published value, which with the 638.50 range solves to a high of 28,652.255 and a low of 28,013.755, or 28,652.25 and 28,013.75 at the contract's tick.

That pair, with the 28,384.50 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 28,306.25 open, 28,652.25 high, 28,013.75 low and 28,384.50 settle.

2.2 Daily Structure

Thursday traded inside Wednesday's range and settled 88.75 lower, after Wednesday's 638.00 point gain. Settlements over the last six sessions read 26,752.00, 27,085.25, 28,014.50, 27,835.25, 28,473.25 and 28,384.50, so the contract has recovered 1,632.50 of the 1,814.75 points lost from the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26 to the 26,752.00 settle of 11/05/26.

The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 30,906.00 as the one-month high and 26,366.50 as the one-month and 13-week low. The settle sits 12.50 above the 28,372.00 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low and 104.38 beneath the 28,488.88 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low.

In this review's interpretation an inside day that settled near the middle of its range, after a 2.29 percent gain, describes a pause rather than a reversal; the afternoon decline from the 11:00 AM ET high returned the contract to the 28,302.00 to 28,400.00 area, near the published Pivot Point of 28,350.17, without a test of the morning low.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

The 638.50 point range was the narrowest since the 593.00 point range of 11/10/26, after 849.25 on Wednesday. In the 30-minute series two bars, at 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM ET, spanned more than 250 points from high to low, and two bars, the same two, rose more than 200 points from open to close.

The swing sequence shows a 28,969.00 high on 11/04, a 26,366.50 low on 11/06, and higher lows since then at 26,751.25 on 11/09, 27,516.00 on 11/10, 27,847.75 on Wednesday and 28,013.75 on Thursday, the fourth consecutive higher low. The highs read 28,129.25 on 11/09, 28,109.00 on 11/10, 28,697.00 on Wednesday and 28,652.25 on Thursday.

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 11/02/26, ran 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50, 1,058.50, 1,378.00, 593.00, 849.25 and 638.50. The published grid places the 3-10 day crossover stall at 28,418.25, the 50 percent retracement of the 4-week range at 28,636.25, the 18-day average crossing level at 28,655.07 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 28,991.50.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed for this analysis from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 11/04/25 through Thursday; the partial row dated Friday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the contract's 0.25 tick. The 200-day window contains 42 zero-volume rows, which are retained as published settlements. The 5-day average stands at 27,958.50, the 9-day at 27,949.50, the 20-day at 28,796.25, the 50-day at 29,762.75, the 100-day at 29,716.25 and the 200-day at 28,521.50.

Against those rounded values the 28,384.50 settle sits 426.00 above the 5-day average and 435.00 above the 9-day, and 411.75 beneath the 20-day, 1,378.25 beneath the 50-day, 1,331.75 beneath the 100-day and 137.00 beneath the 200-day. It is the fourth consecutive settle above the 5-day average, the last beneath it on 11/06/26, the second above the 9-day, the last beneath it on 11/10/26, the 22nd consecutive settle beneath both the 20-day and 50-day, the last above them on 10/13/26, the 11th beneath the 100-day, the last above it on 10/28/26, and the sixth beneath the 200-day, the last above it on 11/04/26.

The 5-day average sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 29,075.52. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,407.02. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,669.61, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,326.70. The 5-day rose from Wednesday's 27,632.00 as Thursday's settle replaced the 26,752.00 settle of 11/05/26.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:23 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not computations made for this analysis. The 9-day relative strength reads 47.11, the 14-day relative strength 44.72 and the 20-day relative strength 44.31.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 77.54 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 52.95 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 48.92 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 42.71 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 27.82 with the 9-day +DI at 19.79 and the 9-day -DI at 20.08, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 26.20 with the 14-day +DI at 18.70 and the 14-day -DI at 22.38, so negative direction leads narrowly on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 42.63 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 38.42 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Thursday evening, on a page titled for Friday, November 13, 2026, is "40% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "48% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "8% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 805.90 points and the 14-day average daily range at 888.95 points; the 9-day average true range is 880.70, and the 20-day average true range is 742.22 with a 20-day average daily range of 817.78. Thursday's 638.50 point range was 0.72 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 805.90 from the 28,384.50 settle frames Friday between 27,578.60 and 29,190.40. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 27,830.57 to 28,938.43 at one deviation, 27,601.13 to 29,167.87 at two and 27,425.07 to 29,343.93 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach. In this review's judgment the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, together with the Nvidia leadership story, keeps a range near the 14-day average more likely than a further contraction.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 28,384.50 settle, the first references are the 4:30 PM ET bar close at 28,401.50 and the 28,418.25 crossover stall, followed by the 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low and the 200-day average at 28,521.50. The 28,624.00 published target price, the 28,636.25 midpoint of the 4-week range, Thursday's 28,652.25 high and the 18-day crossing level at 28,655.07 form the next band, with Pivot R1 at 28,686.58 and Wednesday's 28,697.00 high above it. The 20-day average at 28,796.25, one standard deviation resistance at 28,938.43 and Pivot R2 at 28,988.67 are the deeper references.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low, the Pivot Point at 28,350.17 and the 28,302.00 low of the 3:30 PM ET bar. The 28,272.25 stochastic projection, the 9-day average stall at 28,127.50 and the 28,100.59 retracement from the 4-week low form the next band, followed by Pivot S1 at 28,048.08 and Thursday's 28,013.75 low. The 5-day and 9-day averages at 27,958.50 and 27,949.50, one standard deviation support at 27,830.57 and Pivot S2 at 27,711.67 are the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle

The provider's commentary reported that Nvidia's chief executive resigned on Thursday and that the chief financial officer was named interim chief executive, and that the shares fell about 4 percent, which is attributed commentary. Through the session the equities feed carried press reports on the matter: at 12:02 PM ET that lawmakers plan to probe chip export approvals, at 1:57 PM ET that the new chief executive plans a company meeting next Wednesday, at 2:10 PM ET a senator's call for an assessment of whether the company is too big to fail, and at 3:53 PM ET that an investigation into the former chief executive continues. At 1:05 PM ET the feed carried Alphabet's release of a new model in search. Nvidia's quarterly results call is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation

The semiconductor index closed at 10,506.67, down 0.54 percent, after trading between 10,174.12 and 10,688.24. After the close the news feed carried Applied Materials' fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 4.16 dollars a share against an estimate of 4.06 and net sales of 10.41 billion dollars against 10.27 billion, with first-quarter sales guidance of 10.60 to 11.60 billion, and Cisco's first-quarter adjusted earnings of 1.40 dollars against 1.32 and revenue of 18.50 billion against 18.13 billion. A premium news feed carried a sentiment note that the Nvidia story is not all bad for its technology rivals.

4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)

The ten-year yield index closed at 5.10 after a 5.12 high, against 4.98 on Tuesday, the last session in which the cash Treasury market traded before Wednesday's holiday. The provider's commentary reported that three regional Fed presidents favoured additional rate hikes and that weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 against 194,000 expected, which is attributed commentary, and a premium news feed carried an investment-bank note arguing that the Fed missed an opportunity to hike. Higher yields weigh most on long-duration growth equities, and in this review's interpretation the yield move compounded the single-stock pressure on Thursday.

4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop

At 8:07 AM ET the news feed carried the President's statement that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and the 8:00 AM ET bar fell 95.75; the two coincided. From 3:28 PM ET the feed carried remarks that he would possibly use military force in Iran if needed and would consider a week-long campaign against Cuba. December WTI rose 2.55 percent to 88.74. In this review's interpretation the Iran headlines reach the index through crude and yields rather than directly.

4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility

The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,289.19, down 85.06 or 0.30 percent, after trading between 27,940.58 and 28,548.55. The S&P 500 cash index fell 0.35 percent and the Dow 0.36 percent, the dollar index rose 0.25 percent to 103.17 and the volatility index's daily record closed at 18.70, up 1.21 from 17.49. The December contract settled 95.31 above the cash close, measured as the 28,384.50 settle less the 28,289.19 cash close, both Thursday completed-session daily records, against 99.00 on Wednesday.

4.6 Institutional Positioning

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows leveraged funds at 62,698 long, up 11,527, against 52,625 short, up 3,755, and asset managers at 109,642 long against 36,505 short, as listed and not recomputed. Thursday's December volume was 708,332 contracts against 653,920 on Wednesday, per the settlement record. The provider lists 12/18/26 as the December contract's expiration date.

Options positioning

This analysis uses the Nasdaq-100 tracking fund's positioning console and the Nasdaq-100 column of the dealer-positioning dataset as the positioning inputs available for this contract; the fund is a proxy that tracks the index closely, and its levels are quoted in fund terms. The fund closed at 688.55, down 0.27 percent from 690.38. Its console shows the largest gamma concentration at 700, a secondary dealer-positioning level at 691, the primary call side ceiling at 720 and the primary put side support base at 680, with call gamma of minus 1.98 billion dollars and put gamma of minus 2.31 billion. One-month implied volatility stands at 23.39 percent against one-month realized volatility of 34.79 percent, the implied volatility rank at 48.88 percent and put to call open interest at 1.12.

The dataset's Nasdaq-100 column, whose reference price of 28,374 is Wednesday's cash close, places the modeled volatility threshold at 28,410, the modeled gamma-flip level at 28,302, the largest gamma concentration at 28,000, the primary put side support base at 27,000 and the primary call side ceiling at 29,675, with key strikes listed at 28,000, 29,000, 27,000 and 29,675, a gamma tilt of 1.045 and a 25-delta risk reversal of minus 0.059. Thursday's 28,289.19 cash close sits 12.81 beneath the modeled gamma-flip level and 120.81 beneath the modeled volatility threshold, and 289.19 above the 28,000 concentration.

At the measured basis of 95.31, the modeled gamma-flip level corresponds to about 28,397.25 in December futures, the modeled volatility threshold to about 28,505.25 and the 28,000 concentration to about 28,095.25; these conversions are this review's, the source publishes no futures column for the index, and modeled thresholds move as positioning changes. In this review's interpretation a cash close just beneath the modeled gamma-flip level, with negative fund gamma on both sides, describes an environment where hedging may add to moves rather than damp them; that is an inference from the dataset, not a measured flow.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday with the overview showing a 28,399.25 open, 14.75 above the settle, after the Applied Materials and Cisco results. Bias neutral above the Pivot Point at 28,350.17, expected band roughly 28,150 to 28,600.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Friday)

Euro area growth data are listed for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral beneath the 200-day average at 28,521.50, expected band roughly 28,100 to 28,600.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Friday, RTH Open)

The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, ahead of the 9:30 AM ET cash open, and remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 27,950 to 28,750, with the 28,600 to 28,640 setup band near the top.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the cash close at 4:00 PM ET sets the weekly close. Expected band roughly 28,000 to 28,700.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Friday)

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, after the close. Globex does not reopen on Friday evening; the next session opens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, so two days of headline exposure on Nvidia, Iran and Fed commentary separate Friday's settle from the reopen. In this review's judgment a gap through Pivot R1 at 28,686.58 or Pivot S1 at 28,048.08 is possible on a weekend headline.

Expected Range (Friday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 28,100 to 28,620

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 27,950 to 28,760

High-range scenario: 27,700 to 28,990

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 28,048.08 and Pivot R1 at 28,686.58 into the producer price index, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a rebound through the 200-day average into the 28,600 to 28,640 band that stalls beneath Thursday's 28,652.25 high weighted above a settle through it. The settle beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages, the composite at "40% SELL" and the afternoon decline from the 11:00 AM ET high support that reading, while four consecutive higher lows argue against a deep decline.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high and Pivot R1 at 28,686.58, which would bring the 20-day average at 28,796.25 into play; a soft producer price report that lowers yields is the input most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a firm report and further leadership headlines could carry the contract through Pivot S1 at 28,048.08 and Thursday's 28,013.75 low without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Thursday's releases are complete. Weekly jobless claims, listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, were reported by the provider's commentary at 200,000 against 194,000 expected, which is attributed commentary. After the close, the news feed carried Cisco's results at its 4:05 PM ET listing and Applied Materials' results, both above the estimates the feed carried. The December contract settled at 28,384.50 and the cash index closed at 28,289.19.

Friday opens with euro area growth data listed for 5:00 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; the news-feed calendar lists a monthly forecast of 0.4 percent against 1.3 percent previously and a core forecast of 0.3 percent against 0.7 percent, figures that are unconfirmed. Remarks by New York Fed President Williams are listed for 9:10 AM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Remarks by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman are listed for 10:50 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly are listed for 12:00 PM ET on Friday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson are listed for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Next week, Nvidia's quarterly results call is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's judgment the first-order input for the index on Friday is the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with the Nvidia leadership story as the unscheduled input.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages after an inside day that gave back 350.25 points from its 11:00 AM ET high, and the composite reads "40% SELL". A rebound through the 200-day average at 28,521.50 into the 28,600 to 28,640 band, beneath Thursday's 28,652.25 high and Pivot R1 at 28,686.58, offers a short with a defined risk point above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high. Four consecutive higher lows and a settle above the 5-day and 9-day averages leave room for a rebound that runs through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the 200-day area are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 28,600 to 28,640

Stop Loss: 28,760 (above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high and Pivot R1 at 28,686.58, beneath the 20-day average at 28,796.25)

Target 1 (T1): 28,480 (beneath the 28,488.88 retracement)

Target 2 (T2): 28,340 (beneath the Pivot Point at 28,350.17)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 28,200 (beneath the 28,272.25 stochastic projection, above the 9-day average stall at 28,127.50)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,640.

Macro override: A soft producer price report that pulls yields lower, or a positive turn in the Nvidia leadership story, would lift the index. In that scenario a move through the 28,760 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 20-day average at 28,796.25 becomes the reference, 36.25 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 805.90.