Nasdaq Futures 28,473.25: Short 28,480 to 28,540 at 200-Day

Executive Summary

The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,473.25 on Wednesday, up 638.00 or 2.29 percent from Tuesday's settle of 27,835.25, after trading between 28,697.00 and 27,847.75, an 849.25 point daily range. The settle finished at 73.7 percent of the range, and the range was 0.98 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 867.55 points. Wednesday printed a higher high, 588.00 above Tuesday's 28,109.00, and a higher low, 331.75 above Tuesday's 27,516.00.

The settle is the highest since the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26, and the 28,697.00 high is the highest since the 28,969.00 high of that session. The 849.25 point range is the widest since the 1,378.00 point range of 11/09/26, and the 2.29 percent gain is the largest since the 3.43 percent gain of that session. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,374.25, up 633.45 or 2.28 percent, per the provider's daily record, so the settle carried a 99.00 point premium over the cash close.

The gain was a cash-hours advance led by semiconductors. The 30-minute series places the low of 27,847.75 in the first bar after the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen and the 28,697.00 high in the 1:30 PM ET bar; the 10:30 AM ET bar rose 175.25, the largest gain of any bar, and the 2:00 PM ET bar fell 95.25, the largest decline. The semiconductor index's daily record closed at 10,564.11, up 5.66 percent. The provider's commentary tied the rally to chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares after a cloud-computing provider's results and raised forecast, which is attributed commentary.

After the close the news flow turned. The news feed carried after-close company news at the largest artificial-intelligence chipmaker. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET at 28,306.25, 167.00 beneath the settle, and the overview's reopened-session low was 28,156.00 at the 6:20 PM ET read; those prices belong to Thursday's session and followed that news.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Wednesday evening is "48% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest", against "80% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages and beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day, 39.75 points beneath the 200-day. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 28,480 to 28,540 band, around the 200-day average at 28,513.00 and the settle, stopped at 28,700 above Wednesday's high, with objectives at 28,320, 28,130 and an extended 27,940.

Price Action & Technical Structure

2.1 Intraday and Session Review

The Wednesday session opened at 27,899.50 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 64.25 above Tuesday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the low of 27,847.75 in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Tuesday and the high of 28,697.00 in the 1:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 27,847.75 and 28,280.00 and closed that window at 28,240.25, with the 10:00 PM ET bar gaining 74.75.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 28,222.50 and 28,406.25 and closed that window at 28,352.00. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 61.25 to 28,291.50 and spanned 227.00 from high to low, the widest bar of the session, with a low of 28,199.00 that held as the low of the cash hours. The 10:30 AM ET bar then rose 175.25 from 28,374.25 to 28,549.50, the largest gain of any bar, and the 11:00 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET bars added 18.50 and 42.25.

The 1:30 PM ET bar made the 28,697.00 high and closed at 28,661.50. The 2:00 PM ET bar fell 95.25 to 28,567.00, the largest decline of any bar, and the bars from 2:00 PM ET to 4:00 PM ET held between 28,443.50 and 28,666.00; the 3:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,484.25 and the settle printed at 28,473.25. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,444.25, 29.00 beneath the settle, before the after-close company news.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:20 PM ET, carries an open of 28,306.25, a high of 28,319.75 and a low of 28,156.00 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, not to Wednesday's completed session; its previous close field reads 28,473.25. Wednesday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 29,680.17 minus Pivot S3 at 27,132.42, divided by three, returns 849.25, and Pivot R2 at 29,188.58 minus Pivot S2 at 27,490.08, divided by two, returns the same 849.25. The published Pivot Point is 28,339.33. Three times that value, less the 28,473.25 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 56,544.74, which with the 849.25 range solves to a high of 28,696.995 and a low of 27,847.745, or 28,697.00 and 27,847.75 at the contract's tick.

That pair, with the 28,473.25 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 27,899.50 open, 28,697.00 high, 27,847.75 low and 28,473.25 settle.

2.2 Daily Structure

Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday and settled 638.00 higher, after Tuesday's inside session. Settlements over the last six sessions read 28,566.75, 26,752.00, 27,085.25, 28,014.50, 27,835.25 and 28,473.25, so the contract has recovered 1,721.25 of the 1,814.75 points lost on 11/05/26 and settles 93.50 beneath the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26.

The settle is the highest since the 28,566.75 settle of 11/04/26, and the 28,697.00 high is the highest since the 28,969.00 high of that session. The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 31,289.25 as the one-month high and 26,366.50 as the one-month and 13-week low. The settle sits 15.63 beneath the 28,488.88 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low and 101.25 above the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low, and 354.63 beneath the 28,827.88 midpoint of the four-week range.

The settle finished at 73.7 percent of the day's range, 625.50 above the low and 223.75 beneath the high. In this review's interpretation a settle in the upper quarter after a gain of more than two percent describes a session that held most of its advance, while the 223.75 point give-back from the 1:30 PM ET high, and the after-close reports, leave the advance short of the 200-day average.

2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges over the last nine sessions, from 10/30/26, ran 947.25, 789.50, 411.25, 1,353.25, 2,098.50, 1,058.50, 1,378.00, 593.00 and 849.25, so Wednesday's range expanded from Tuesday's 593.00 and is the widest since 11/09/26. In the 30-minute series no bar moved more than 175.25 from open to close, and two bars, at 9:30 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET, spanned more than 200 from high to low.

The swing sequence since the 26,366.50 low of 11/06/26 shows highs of 28,129.25 on 11/09, 28,109.00 on 11/10 and 28,697.00 on Wednesday, the highest high since 11/04/26, and lows of 26,751.25, 27,516.00 and 27,847.75, a third consecutive higher low. The published grid places the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88, the four-week midpoint at 28,827.88 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 28,991.50.

2.4 Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed this analysis from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 11/03/25 through Wednesday; the partial row dated Thursday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tick. The 200-day window contains 43 rows with zero volume from the contract's deferred months, which are included as settlements. The 5-day average stands at 27,632.00, the 9-day at 27,966.00, the 20-day at 28,884.25, the 50-day at 29,784.50, the 100-day at 29,732.00 and the 200-day at 28,513.00.

The 28,473.25 settle sits 841.25 above the 5-day average and 507.25 above the 9-day, and 411.00 beneath the 20-day, 1,311.25 beneath the 50-day, 1,258.75 beneath the 100-day and 39.75 beneath the 200-day. It is the first settle above the 9-day average after a settle beneath it on 11/10/26, the 21st consecutive settle beneath the 20-day and the 50-day, the last settle above both on 10/13/26, and the fifth consecutive settle beneath the 200-day, the last settle above it on 11/04/26.

The 50-day average sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,679.64, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,293.85. The 20-day sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,384.80, and the 5-day sits beneath the 20-day because the 15 older settlements in the 20-day window averaged higher, at 29,301.63. The 5-day average fell from Tuesday's 27,650.75 as Wednesday's settle replaced the 11/04 settle of 28,566.75.

2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not the computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 48.12, the 14-day relative strength 45.39 and the 20-day relative strength 44.81.

The 9-day raw stochastic reads 74.88 percent, the 14-day stochastic %K 45.68 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 33.87 percent, with %K above %D. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 31.21 with the 9-day +DI at 21.52 and the 9-day -DI at 21.84, nearly level, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 27.53 with the 14-day +DI at 19.82 and the 14-day -DI at 23.72. The 9-day historic volatility reads 45.94 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 38.42 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Wednesday evening, on a page titled for Thursday, November 12, 2026, is "48% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "80% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "40% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "50% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

2.6 Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 818.78 points and the 14-day average daily range at 867.55 points; the 9-day average true range is 910.97, and the 20-day average true range is 747.68 with a 20-day average daily range of 814.56. Wednesday's 849.25 point range was 0.98 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 818.78 from the 28,473.25 settle frames Thursday between 27,654.47 and 29,292.03. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 27,771.71 to 29,174.79 at one deviation, 27,481.12 to 29,465.38 at two and 27,258.14 to 29,688.36 at three. The reopened session's 28,156.00 low at the 6:20 PM ET read already sits 317.25 beneath the settle, and in this review's judgment Thursday's range may exceed Wednesday's because the after-close reports arrived with the cash market shut.

Key Levels

3.1 Resistance

Above the 28,473.25 settle, the first references are the 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low and the 200-day average at 28,513.00, followed by the 28,621.43 stall of the 3-day and 10-day crossover and Wednesday's 28,697.00 high. The 28,731.00 projection of the 18-day crossing, the 28,827.88 four-week midpoint and Pivot R1 at 28,830.92 form the next band, with the 20-day average at 28,884.25 and the 28,933.39 published target price above. Pivot R2 at 29,188.58 is the deeper reference.

3.2 Support

Beneath the settle sit the 28,444.25 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, the 28,372.00 retracement from the 13-week low and the Pivot Point at 28,339.33. The 28,246.99 retracement from the four-week low and the 28,199.00 low of the cash hours lead into Pivot S1 at 27,981.67 and the 9-day average at 27,966.00. Wednesday's 27,847.75 low, one standard deviation support at 27,771.71 and Pivot S2 at 27,490.08 are the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle

The provider's commentary tied Wednesday's rally to chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares after a cloud-computing provider posted strong results and raised its annual revenue forecast, and cited reported quarterly revenue of 10 billion dollars at a leading model developer and demand for another developer's initial public offering, which is attributed commentary. During the session the feed also carried a new search-company model interface at 1:17 PM ET.

After the close the news feed carried company news at the largest chipmaker. That company's results are scheduled with a conference call at 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's interpretation after-close news at the index's largest artificial-intelligence weight bears directly on the capex theme that carried Wednesday's gain.

4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation

The semiconductor index's daily record closed at 10,564.11, up 565.78 or 5.66 percent from 9,998.33, against 2.28 percent for the Nasdaq-100 cash index and 1.31 percent for the S&P 500 cash index, so the chip group led by more than twice the index's gain.

4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)

The October consumer price index, released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, rose 0.4 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar's actual values. At 8:54 AM ET on Wednesday the news feed carried a sentiment note that markets continue to price a more hawkish Fed, and investment-bank commentary in the same feed expected a second quarter-point hike in December. The cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, so no yield session printed; in this review's interpretation the rally came without a duration test, which the Thursday reopen of the cash Treasury market supplies.

4.4 Crude Oil

Brent's January contract rose 1.39 percent, and the index's gain came alongside firmer crude.

4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility

The volatility index's daily record closed at 17.49, down 1.97 points or 10.12 percent from 19.46, and the dollar index rose 0.67 percent to 102.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49 percent, the S&P 500 cash index 1.31 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 2.28 percent, so the rally was weighted toward technology. Gold's December contract fell 0.74 percent while silver rose 1.52 percent.

4.6 Institutional Positioning

The latest weekly positioning report on the provider's overview, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows asset managers at 109,642 long, up 3,450, against 36,505 short, down 4,306, and dealers at 39,546 long against 152,075 short, as listed and not recomputed. Wednesday's December volume was 637,087 contracts against 691,280 on Tuesday, per the settlement record, so the gain came on lower participation than Tuesday's inside session.

Options positioning

The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section, the edition timed 5:05 PM ET on Wednesday, uses Tuesday's closes as its reference prices, not Wednesday's: NDX 27,740 equals Tuesday's 27,740.80 cash close, and Tuesday's 27,740.80 plus 633.45 points, a 2.28 percent gain, gives the provider's 28,374.25 Wednesday close. The tracking fund's 674 reference matches the 674.81 previous close on its positioning console, which read 689.40 at 6:21 PM ET, up 2.16 percent.

On the index the dataset places the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 27,800, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 27,879, the call side ceiling at NDX 27,880, the largest gamma concentration at NDX 28,000 and the primary put side support base at NDX 27,000, with key strikes at 28,000, 27,000, 29,000 and 30,000. The 28,374.25 close sits 574.25 above the threshold, 495.25 above the flip level, 494.25 above the ceiling, 374.25 above the largest concentration and 1,374.25 above the put side base, and 625.75 beneath the 29,000 key strike. The dataset's levels were set against Tuesday's close, so Wednesday's gain carried the index through every NDX reference except the 29,000 and 30,000 key strikes.

For the tracking fund the dataset lists the threshold at 691, the flip level at 688, the largest concentration at 680, the call side ceiling at 720 and the put side base at 650, with gamma tilt at 0.652, gamma notional of minus 690.624 million dollars and a 25-delta risk reversal of 0.00. The fund's 689.40 print sits 1.40 above the 688 flip level and 1.60 beneath the 691 threshold. Its console shows one-month implied volatility at 24.75 percent against one-month realized volatility of 35.24 percent and an implied volatility rank of 56.89 percent.

At the measured basis of 99.00 points, the December settle less the 28,374.25 cash close, the NDX 27,000 base converts to 27,099.00, the NDX 27,879 flip level to 27,978.00, the NDX 28,000 concentration to 28,099.00 and the NDX 29,000 key strike to 29,099.00. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.

In this review's interpretation the fund trading between its flip level and threshold, with negative gamma notional, places it where hedging can add to moves in either direction, and the after-close reports arrived with the index above every nearby dataset reference. The 28,099.00 conversion of the NDX 28,000 concentration sits beneath the Pivot Point at 28,339.33 and above Pivot S1 at 27,981.67. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path in section 2.1 comes from the futures series.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday at 28,306.25, 167.00 beneath the settle, after the after-close company news. Japanese producer prices are listed for 6:50 PM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath the Pivot Point at 28,339.33, expected band roughly 27,950 to 28,450.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)

UK growth data are listed for 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, ahead of the London session. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 200-day average at 28,513.00, expected band roughly 27,900 to 28,500.

Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, RTH Open)

Weekly jobless claims are listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and existing home sales are listed for 10:00 AM ET by the same calendar, also unconfirmed. The 9:30 AM ET cash open is the first cash-market response to the after-close reports. Expected band roughly 27,850 to 28,550, with the 28,480 to 28,540 setup band at the top.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)

A 30-year bond auction is listed for 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, the first duration test since the holiday. Expected band roughly 27,900 to 28,500 into the 4:00 PM ET cash close.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)

A networking-equipment company's results are listed for 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed earnings table, unconfirmed. The evening session carries into the producer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)

Low-range scenario: 28,000 to 28,450

Mid-range scenario (most likely): 27,850 to 28,600

High-range scenario: 27,490 to 28,830

Most Likely Path

In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 27,981.67 and the 200-day average at 28,513.00, with a rebound toward the 28,480 to 28,540 band that stalls beneath Wednesday's 28,697.00 high weighted above a settle through it. The after-close reports moved the reopened session 167.00 beneath the settle, the composite reads "48% SELL" and the settle sits beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a rebound into the 200-day rather than buying the reopen.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high, which would bring the 28,827.88 four-week midpoint and Pivot R1 at 28,830.92 into play; a quick resolution of the after-close news or further strength in semiconductors are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, a broader sale of artificial-intelligence shares could carry the contract through Wednesday's 27,847.75 low toward Pivot S2 at 27,490.08 without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Wednesday's releases are complete. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 was the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours and normal settlement times and banks closed, per the verified forward calendar, and the cash Treasury market closed while equity markets traded. The December contract settled at 28,473.25.

Thursday opens with UK growth data listed for 2:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and weekly jobless claims listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Existing home sales are listed for 10:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by several Fed officials are listed from 9:00 AM ET through the evening by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. A 30-year bond auction is listed for 1:00 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and a networking-equipment company's results for 4:05 PM ET by the news-feed earnings table, unconfirmed.

Later in the week, the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. In this review's judgment the first-order input for the Nasdaq-100 on Thursday is the cash-market response at the 9:30 AM ET open to the after-close company news at the largest chipmaker, with the reopening of the cash Treasury market as the second input.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The settle sits 39.75 beneath the 200-day average after a 2.29 percent gain, the reopened session traded 167.00 beneath the settle after the after-close company news, and the composite reads "48% SELL". A rebound into the 28,480 to 28,540 band, around the 200-day average at 28,513.00 and the 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low, offers a short with a defined risk point above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high. A quick resolution of the reports and semiconductor strength can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the 200-day are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 28,480 to 28,540

Stop Loss: 28,700 (above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high)

Target 1 (T1): 28,320 (beneath the Pivot Point at 28,339.33)

Target 2 (T2): 28,130 (beneath the 28,199.00 low of the cash hours)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 27,940 (beneath Pivot S1 at 27,981.67 and the 9-day average at 27,966.00)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Wednesday's 28,697.00 high negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,540.

Macro override: A company statement that settles the after-close news, a further rally in semiconductors, or a soft jobless claims figure with lower yields at the Treasury reopen would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 28,700 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Pivot R1 at 28,830.92 becomes the reference, 130.92 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 818.78.