On Monday December crude settled at 101.76, down 1.51 or 1.46 percent, after a 2.80 point session between 100.33 and 103.13. The settle finished at 51.1 percent of that range. Both ends stayed inside Friday's. The 103.13 high sat 79 cents beneath Friday's 103.92, and the 100.33 low sat 1.49 above Friday's 98.84. It was the largest one-day decline since the 1.76 point drop of 09/29. The range was the narrowest since the 2.45 of 10/22.
Monday's range reached our band, our stop and our first target. The Monday card was a long from 101.60 to 101.90 with a 100.75 stop. The 100.33 low printed 1.27 beneath the band's bottom and 42 cents beneath that stop. The 103.13 high printed 38 cents above the 102.75 first target. No intraday series was preserved, so the order of those prints cannot be shown. No fill and no result is asserted.
Brent fell less. Its December contract settled at 115.81, down 91 cents or 0.78 percent, per the news feed at 2:44 PM ET and the provider's daily record. Its premium over December WTI widened to 14.05 from 13.45. December now sits 2.27 above January's 99.49, against 2.33 on Friday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased slightly.
Diplomacy led the news feed. At 9:10 AM ET it carried the start of a meeting in Tehran between Iran and senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. At 11:47 AM ET it carried the four countries agreeing to continue talks. Separately, at 7:31 AM ET it carried a press report that the Houthis claimed attacks on pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil line. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so no move is attributed to any one of them.
December crude settled at 101.76, down 1.51. That is 51.1 percent of a 100.33 to 103.13 range that sat inside Friday's. It sits above all six settlement averages, 1.87 above the 5-day at 99.89. Resistance starts at the 102.13 relative strength projection, then the 103.03 target price, Monday's 103.13 high and Pivot R1 at 103.15, with Friday's 103.92 high, also the 52-week high, beyond. Support starts at the 101.74 Pivot Point, 2 cents beneath the settle, then the 100.57 stochastic projection, Pivot S1 at 100.35 and Monday's 100.33 low. The setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 100.40 to 100.70, stop 99.55, targets 101.55, 102.55 and an extended 103.55. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.06 under it, and the 101.55 first target sits 21 cents beneath the settle too. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday.
Monday's 100.33 low ran beneath the band and the stop
First, the grading. In Monday's outlook we set a long on the December contract from 101.60 to 101.90, stop 100.75, with targets at 102.75, 103.75 and an extended 104.75. A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 101.60 would remove the edge. The card is graded on December's Monday bar.
Then December traded. Its bar, from the provider's settlement row, opened at 102.61 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. That was 71 cents above the band's top and 66 cents beneath Friday's settle. It marked a high of 103.13 and a low of 100.33, and settled at 101.76. The range covered the whole band. It covered the stop too. The low printed 1.27 beneath 101.60 and 42 cents beneath 100.75.
On the target side, the 103.13 high cleared the 102.75 first target by 38 cents. It stopped 62 cents short of 103.75, so the second and extended targets did not print. The settle finished inside the band, 16 cents above its bottom and 1 cent above the 101.75 midpoint. No invalidation settle printed. The low held 23 cents above Pivot S1 at 100.10. Whether the acceptance condition printed needs a 30-minute series, and none was preserved. The daily bar cannot show whether the band, the first target or the stop traded first. No fill and no result is asserted.
Our ranges sat too high. The low-range case of 101.60 to 104.20 gave way at the bottom by 1.27, and the most likely case of 100.90 to 105.20 by 57 cents. The high-range case of 99.50 to 107.00 held, with 83 cents to spare at the bottom. All three tops held, by 1.07, 2.07 and 3.87. One deviation, 100.86 to 105.68, broke at the bottom by 53 cents. Two deviations, 99.87 to 106.67, held by 46 cents, and three deviations, 99.10 to 107.44, by 1.23. One average true range around Friday's settle, 99.54 to 107.00, held by 79 cents. The session bands for Globex, London, the morning and the afternoon need an intraday series, so they are not graded.
The weighted path expected a hold between Pivot S1 at 100.10 and Pivot R2 at 107.09. That outer frame held on the daily bar. The dip it pictured was meant to hold above one standard deviation support at 100.86, and the low printed 53 cents beneath it. The named alternative, an open beneath Pivot S1 at 100.10 toward Thursday's 99.47 settle, did not happen. Monday opened at 102.61. The card's macro override named a confirmed de-escalation in the Gulf over the weekend, or a material supply release. Neither appears in the review as a confirmed event.
The December band at 100.40 to 100.70, just above Pivot S1
The map moved down 1.20, the gap between the two midpoints. Every price here is the December contract. The new band, 100.40 to 100.70, sits just above Pivot S1 at 100.35, its bottom 5 cents over that pivot. The 100.57 stochastic projection sits inside it. Monday's 100.33 low sits 7 cents beneath the bottom. The settle sits 1.06 above the band's top and 1.36 above its bottom. The stop at 99.55 sits 5 cents beneath the 99.60 stall level. It sits 38 cents above one standard deviation support at 99.17.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday. So the provider's overview already showed the Tuesday session, with an open of 101.29, a high of 101.50 and a low of 101.25. Those prints belong to the new session. The provider's previous close of 101.76 is Monday's settle. Quotes after the reopen are not settlements and do not form a preserved intraday series.
Monday was narrow and soft. Its 2.80 range was 0.78 times the 14-day average daily range. The 103.13 high sits 79 cents beneath Friday's 103.92 and the 100.33 low 1.49 above Friday's 98.84, a session inside Friday's range. The settle beneath the 102.61 open leaves a body of 85 cents. The upper shadow runs 52 cents above the open and the lower shadow 1.43 beneath the settle. Over ten sessions the settlements read 93.17, 93.90, 96.50, 99.02, 98.54, 97.82, 97.15, 99.47 and 103.27 before Monday's 101.76. That ended a run of two higher settles. Highs over five sessions read 101.37, 100.40, 100.17, 103.92 and 103.13. Lows read 95.25, 96.26, 97.72, 98.84 and 100.33. That is a fourth higher session low in a row. Friday's 103.92 remains the one-month, 13-week and 52-week high. The one-month low is 86.00 and the 13-week low 71.00. Over five sessions the contract is still up 3.22 from the 98.54 settle of 10/19.
Resistance starts 37 cents up, at the 102.13 relative strength projection. The published target price at 103.03 follows, then Monday's 103.13 high and Pivot R1 at 103.15, 2 cents apart. Friday's 103.92 high comes next. The 104.01 crossover stall level, one standard deviation resistance at 104.35 and Pivot R2 at 104.54 follow it. Two standard deviations resistance at 105.43, the 105.44 top of one average true range, Pivot R3 at 105.95 and three standard deviations resistance at 106.25 are the extended references.
Support starts 2 cents down, at the 101.74 Pivot Point. The 100.57 stochastic projection, Pivot S1 at 100.35 and Monday's 100.33 low follow. The 5-day average sits at 99.89. Then a tight band. The 99.60 stall level, the 99.19 crossing price for the 9-day and one standard deviation support at 99.17 sit within 43 cents. Pivot S2 at 98.94, the 98.90 projection at 70 percent and Friday's 98.84 low sit within 10 cents, with the 9-day average at 98.60 just beneath. The extended references follow. Two standard deviations support at 98.09, the 98.08 bottom of one average true range, Pivot S3 at 97.55, three standard deviations support at 97.27 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 come next; that retracement sits 4.69 beneath the settle. Then the long tail. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96, the 18-day crossing at 94.64, the 20-day at 93.77 and the 92.85 retracement from the four-week low lie further down. So do the 40-day crossing at 91.76, the 91.34 retracement from the 13-week high and the 50-day at 89.38. Four more sit far beneath. They are the 86.00 one-month low, the 100-day at 82.08, the 200-day at 76.75 and the 71.00 13-week low. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure rests on daily bars only.
Every average sits beneath price. The settle is 1.87 above the 5-day at 99.89, 3.16 above the 9-day at 98.60, 7.99 above the 20-day at 93.77 and 12.38 above the 50-day at 89.38. The gaps to the 100-day at 82.08 and the 200-day at 76.75 are 19.68 and 25.01. The 5-day rose 64 cents from 99.25. The 10/19 settle of 98.54 left the window and 101.76 replaced it. The 20-day rose 64 cents from 93.13 as the 09/28 settle of 89.01 left, and the 50-day rose 47 cents from 88.92. The order holds. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 86.46, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.78 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 71.42. Tuesday's crossing prices are 99.19 for the 9-day, 94.64 for the 18-day and 91.76 for the 40-day.
Momentum readings stay high. Relative strength reads 71.82 on the 9-day, 69.45 on the 14-day and 67.31 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 81.15 percent on the 9-day and 87.10 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 90.37 percent sits above %D at 84.97 percent, in the upper part of the range. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 28.20 against 2.77 on the 9-day with the ADX at 57.10, and 27.17 against 4.94 on the 14-day with the ADX at 43.30. Historic volatility reads 27.40 percent and 26.68 percent. The composite multi-indicator read for Tuesday holds at 100 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session's snapshot. Its signal strength is described as maximum and its direction as strongest. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 40 percent a month ago. All three horizon groups average 100 percent buy, and the trend indicator reads buy. These are the provider's published readings, read at about 6:22 PM ET on Monday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's 101.34 quote into them.
Monday ran narrow. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.68 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.61. The 9-day figures are 3.77 and 3.75 and the 20-day 3.56 and 3.68. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat. One average true range either side of the settle spans 98.08 to 105.44. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 99.17 to 104.35, 98.09 to 105.43 and 97.27 to 106.25. They describe settlement dispersion only. A headline gap can open outside any of them. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 3.24, 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08 and 2.80.
Talks in Tehran, a 14.05 Brent premium and 282.6 million barrels
Talks filled the day. At 9:10 AM ET the news feed carried the start of the meeting in Tehran between Iran and senior Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials. At 9:33 AM ET it carried a senior Iranian official saying Iran will not discuss its nuclear programme before its demands are met. At 10:10 AM ET it carried the Iranian president's statement backing any understanding for regional unity. At 11:47 AM ET it carried the agreement to continue talks. At 2:43 PM ET it carried an Iranian warning to Israel that it would respond in kind to any threat. At 3:36 PM ET it carried Iranian state television saying Iran is open to a shorter US proposal timeline if conditions are met.
Two incidents ran alongside. At 7:31 AM ET the feed carried a press report of Houthi claims of attacks on pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil line. At 1:32 PM ET it carried maritime security reports of a vessel on fire near Iraq. The provider's commentary cited the President's Sunday remark that it is decision time on a deal with Iran, and press reports that the US is building up forces in the region into November. These are statements carried by the news feed and the provider rather than events confirmed for this review. They coincided with the session; no move is attributed to any one of them.
Producers made news too. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. At 8:46 AM ET the news feed carried a press report putting Saudi crude production at 8 million barrels a day in September, up 12.2 percent from August. Another press item carried by the feed reported that Saudi Arabia has agreed to store crude in underground caverns in Singapore.
Moscow comes next. At 11:00 AM ET the news feed carried a Kremlin statement that the Russian president will meet Iran's president and the Emir of Qatar on Tuesday in Moscow. It also carried a press report of Russian refiners raising diesel output under export quotas. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than supply changes measured for this review.
Stocks came up once. The captured calendars carry no crude inventory entry for Monday. At 11:13 AM ET the news feed carried an item that crude stocks in the strategic petroleum reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, the lowest level since 1982, a figure attributed to the feed and not verified independently for this review. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The captured calendars carry no industry inventory preview entry for Tuesday. No gasoline, distillate or Cushing inventory figure was captured, so none is asserted.
Products held up better than crude. In the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.7351 dollars a gallon against 4.787 on Friday, and December gasoline at 3.1322 against 3.1284. The heating oil margin is 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle. Against December WTI it stands at 97.11 dollars a barrel against 97.78 on Friday. The gasoline margin stands at 29.79 against 28.12. It widened while crude fell and gasoline held, and the heating oil margin narrowed. The news feed's settlement items at 2:31 PM ET carried November diesel at 4.9120 and November gasoline at 3.2185, and at 2:32 PM ET November natural gas at 2.6020. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
The dollar edged up. The dollar index closed at 101.96 in the provider's daily record, up 0.15 from Friday's 101.81. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The Chicago Fed national activity index printed 0.07 against a forecast of minus 0.095 at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index printed 13.40 against 8.8 at 10:31 AM ET, also per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. One auction printed as well. The US two-year note auction stopped at a 4.708 percent high yield with a 2.590 bid-to-cover, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Equities rose. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,676.77, up 0.70 percent, with the volatility index at 18.39 against 19.45. The Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 1.09 percent. Metals firmed. Gold's December contract settled at 4,038.4, up 0.76 percent, silver's December contract rose 0.73 percent and copper's December contract rose 0.53 percent. In the review's interpretation the equity gains and the lower volatility index sit alongside a modest easing of the supply premium in crude.
Money managers had trimmed before Friday's rally. The weekly positioning report dated October 20 puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and short positions at 127,226. That leaves a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the 10/22 and 10/23 gains and Monday's decline. December open interest stood at 299,303 for Friday in the provider's record, down from 311,983 on Thursday. Monday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Monday's December volume was 246,789 contracts against 331,867 on Friday. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Tuesday
The review's setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 100.40 to 100.70. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, and positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. The composite holds at 100 percent buy, and Monday's session stayed inside Friday's range. That is the trend case. The band sits just above Pivot S1 at 100.35 and around the 100.57 stochastic projection. The stop at 99.55 sits beneath the 99.60 stall level and above one standard deviation support at 99.17. The first target, 101.55, sits beneath the Pivot Point at 101.74 and Monday's 101.76 settle. The second, 102.55, sits above the 102.13 projection and beneath the 103.03 target price. The extended 103.55 sits above Pivot R1 at 103.15 and beneath Friday's 103.92 high. In the review's reading, diplomatic headlines from Tehran and Moscow could deepen a pullback. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the supply backdrop persists, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 100.55 midpoint the risk to the stop is 1.00, 27.2 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.68. The targets sit 1.00, 2.00 and 3.00 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.06 and its bottom 1.36 under it. The 101.55 first target also sits beneath the settle, by 21 cents, and 85 cents above the band's top. The 102.55 second target sits 79 cents above the settle and 42 cents above the 102.13 projection. The extended 103.55 sits 40 cents above Pivot R1 and 37 cents beneath Friday's high.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 100.30 to 103.10, the most likely 99.20 to 104.30 and the high-range case 98.10 to 105.40. Then by session. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday near the settle. The review's bias is neutral to higher while the contract holds above Pivot S1 at 100.35, with an expected band of roughly 100.60 to 102.80 absent a Gulf headline. Australian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET and the New Zealand rate decision at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. London runs roughly 100.40 to 103.00 with a neutral bias. The review names the 102.13 projection as the first resistance, and it is the first level above the settle. It names Pivot S1 at 100.35 as the first meaningful support. The 101.74 Pivot Point and the 100.57 projection sit between the settle and that pivot. The morning band runs roughly 99.90 to 103.20. The target price at 103.03 and Pivot R1 at 103.15 sit above the settle inside it. The entry band sits beneath the settle, also inside it. The afternoon runs roughly 99.20 to 104.30 into the 2:30 PM ET settle. The review puts its outer edges at the one-deviation bands. Support at 99.17 sits 3 cents beneath the bottom, and resistance at 104.35 sits 5 cents above the top.
Tuesday carries a full calendar. French consumer confidence is listed at 3:45 AM ET and eurozone money supply at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The Israeli election runs through the day, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the advance durable goods report at 8:30 AM ET, with a news-feed consensus of 1.9 percent against minus 0.1 percent previously, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. It lists new home sales at 10:00 AM ET. The consumer confidence survey is listed at 10:00 AM ET and the five-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the start of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. The Russian and Iranian presidents are due to meet in Moscow on Tuesday, per a news-feed item and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. On Wednesday, October 28 the calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET and the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET. On Thursday, October 29 it lists GDP and the personal income and outlays report at 8:30 AM ET.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 99.17 and Pivot R2 at 104.54, with a dip toward the 100.40 to 100.70 band that holds above Monday's 100.33 low weighted slightly above a direct return to Friday's 103.92 high. It names an alternative. A confirmed step toward de-escalation from the Tehran and Moscow meetings could take the contract beneath Pivot S1 at 100.35 and toward one standard deviation support at 99.17 and Friday's 98.84 low. A deeper pullback is also live. In the review's reading Monday's narrower range and the easing of the front calendar spread leave a deeper pullback before any extension as a live alternative. In the review's judgment the first-order influence for crude on Tuesday is unscheduled Gulf headlines around the Tehran and Moscow meetings, with the 8:30 AM ET durable goods report the main scheduled US release of the day.
Monday's 100.33 low sits 7 cents beneath Tuesday's band, with Pivot S1 at 100.35 in between.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless November or January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 101.76 on Monday, down 1.51 or 1.46 percent from Friday's settle of 103.27, after trading between 103.13 and 100.33, a 2.80 point daily range. The settle finished at 51.1 percent of the range, and the 2.80 point range was 0.78 times the published 14-day average daily range of 3.61 points. Monday's high sat 79 cents beneath Friday's 103.92 high and Monday's low sat 1.49 points above Friday's 98.84 low, so the session traded entirely inside Friday's range. The 1.51 point decline was the largest one-day decline since the 1.76 point decline of 09/29, and the 2.80 point range was the narrowest since the 2.45 point range of 10/22.
Brent's December contract settled at 115.81, down 91 cents or 0.78 percent, per the news feed at 2:44 PM ET and the provider's daily record, so its premium over December WTI widened to 14.05 from 13.45 on Friday. The January WTI contract settled at 99.49 in the provider's daily record, which leaves December 2.27 points above January against 2.33 on Friday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased slightly. Over five sessions the contract is still up 3.22 points from the 98.54 settle of 10/19.
The day's news flow centred on diplomacy rather than on new incidents. The news feed carried at 9:10 AM ET the start of a meeting in Tehran between Iran and senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, at 10:10 AM ET the Iranian president saying Iran is ready to back any understanding for regional unity, at 11:47 AM ET the four countries agreeing to continue talks, and at 3:36 PM ET Iranian state television saying Iran is open to a shorter US proposal timeline if conditions are met. Against that, the feed carried at 7:31 AM ET a press report that the Houthis claimed attacks on pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil line and at 1:32 PM ET maritime security reports of a vessel on fire near Iraq. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so no move is attributed to any one of them.
The dollar index closed at 101.96 against 101.81 on Friday and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.70 percent and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 1.09 percent. The published 14-day average true range is 3.68 points. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 100.40 to 100.70 band just above Pivot S1 at 100.35, stopped at 99.55 beneath the 99.60 stochastic stall level, with objectives at 101.55, 102.55 and an extended 103.55.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 102.61 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 66 cents beneath Friday's settle, marked a daily high of 103.13 and a daily low of 100.33, and settled at 101.76 at 2:30 PM ET. This review makes no claim about the order in which the high and the low printed; the daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, and that is the evidence used here.
The news feed's settlement item at 2:31 PM ET carried the December settle at 101.76, down 1.51 or 1.46 percent. The settle sits 1.43 points above the low and 1.37 points beneath the high, close to the middle of the session's range.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 101.29, 101.50 and 101.25, belong to the new Tuesday session and not to Monday's completed session. The provider's previous close of 101.76 is Monday's settle.
Monday's completed-session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 105.95 minus Pivot S3 at 97.55, divided by three, returns 2.80, and Pivot R2 at 104.54 minus Pivot S2 at 98.94, divided by two, returns the same 2.80. Three times the Pivot Point of 101.74 less the 101.76 settle gives a high plus low sum of 203.46, which the pair of 103.13 and 100.33 reproduces exactly, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar on the continuous symbol carry the same 102.61 open, 103.13 high, 100.33 low and 101.76 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday's 103.13 high sits 79 cents beneath Friday's 103.92, and the 100.33 low sits 1.49 points above Friday's 98.84, so the session printed a lower high and a higher low, a session inside Friday's range. The settle beneath the 102.61 open leaves a body of 85 cents, an upper shadow of 52 cents above the open and a lower shadow of 1.43 points beneath the settle.
Settlements over the last ten sessions ran 93.17, 93.90, 96.50, 99.02, 98.54, 97.82, 97.15, 99.47 and 103.27 before Monday's 101.76, so Monday ended a run of two consecutive higher settles. The session highs over the last five sessions, 10/20 to 10/26, read 101.37, 100.40, 100.17, 103.92 and 103.13, and the session lows over the same five sessions read 95.25, 96.26, 97.72, 98.84 and 100.33, a fourth consecutive higher session low.
The provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high is Friday's 103.92, the one-month low is 86.00 and the 13-week low is 71.00. The forward curve sits in backwardation at the front: December settled 2.27 points above January's 99.49, against 2.33 points on Friday.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 3.24, 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08 and 2.80, so Monday's range was the narrowest since the 2.45 range of 10/22. The settlement changes over the same ten sessions read plus 0.31, plus 0.73, plus 2.60, plus 2.52, minus 0.48, minus 0.72, minus 0.67, plus 2.32, plus 3.80 and minus 1.51.
The retracement grid published for Tuesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07, 4.69 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.85 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 91.34. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Monday; the partial Tuesday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The 5-day average stands at 99.89, the 9-day at 98.60, the 20-day at 93.77, the 50-day at 89.38, the 100-day at 82.08 and the 200-day at 76.75.
The 101.76 settle sits 1.87 points above the 5-day average, 3.16 points above the 9-day, 7.99 points above the 20-day and 12.38 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 64 cents from Friday's 99.25, because the 10/19 settle of 98.54 left the window and was replaced by 101.76. The 20-day rose 64 cents from 93.13, because the 09/28 settle of 89.01 left that window, and the 50-day rose 47 cents from 88.92.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 93.77 against 89.38 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 86.46. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.78, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 71.42. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Tuesday: 99.19 for the 9-day, 94.64 for the 18-day and 91.76 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:22 PM ET on Monday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's 101.34 quote into them; they are the provider's published readings, not this review's computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 71.82, the 14-day relative strength 69.45 and the 20-day relative strength 67.31.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 81.15 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 87.10 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 90.37 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 84.97 percent, so %K sits above %D in the upper part of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 57.10 with the 9-day +DI at 28.20 and the 9-day -DI at 2.77; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 43.30 with the 14-day +DI at 27.17 and the 14-day -DI at 4.94, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 27.40 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 26.68 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Tuesday session is "100% BUY", unchanged from the prior session's snapshot of "100% BUY", with signal strength described as "Maximum" and direction as "Strongest". The snapshot history reads "100% BUY" a week ago and "40% BUY" a month ago. The short-horizon, medium-horizon and long-horizon groups each average "100% BUY", and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.68 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.61 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.77 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.75, and the 20-day average true range is 3.56 with a 20-day average daily range of 3.68. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat as the oscillators. Monday's 2.80 point range was 0.78 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.68 points from the 101.76 settle frames Tuesday between 98.08 and 105.44. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements and centre on the 101.76 settle: one deviation spans 99.17 to 104.35, two spans 98.09 to 105.43 and three spans 97.27 to 106.25. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and a headline gap can open outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 101.76 settle, the first overhead reference is the 14-day relative strength projection at 70 percent, 102.13, followed by the published target price at 103.03, Monday's 103.13 high and Pivot R1 at 103.15. Friday's 103.92 high, which is also the published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, precedes the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 104.01, one standard deviation resistance at 104.35 and Pivot R2 at 104.54. Two standard deviations resistance at 105.43, Pivot R3 at 105.95 and three standard deviations resistance at 106.25 are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 101.74, then the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 80 percent, 100.57, Pivot S1 at 100.35 and Monday's 100.33 low. The 14-day %K stochastic stall level at 99.60, the 9-day average crossing price at 99.19 and one standard deviation support at 99.17 form the next band, with Pivot S2 at 98.94, the 70 percent raw stochastic projection at 98.90 and Friday's 98.84 low beneath. Two standard deviations support at 98.09, Pivot S3 at 97.55, three standard deviations support at 97.27 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. A press report carried by the news feed at 8:46 AM ET put Saudi crude production at 8 million barrels a day in September, up 12.2 percent from August, and another press item reported that Saudi Arabia has agreed to store crude in underground caverns in Singapore.
On the Russian side, the Kremlin said at 11:00 AM ET that the Russian president will meet Iran's president and the Emir of Qatar on Tuesday in Moscow, and a press report described Russian refiners raising diesel output under export quotas. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than supply changes measured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The captured calendars carry no crude inventory entry for Monday. The news feed carried at 11:13 AM ET an item that crude stocks in the strategic petroleum reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, the lowest level since 1982, a figure attributed to the feed and not verified independently for this review.
The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The captured calendars carry no industry inventory preview entry for Tuesday, and no gasoline, distillate or Cushing inventory figure was captured for this review, so none is asserted.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 9:10 AM ET the start of the meeting in Tehran between Iran and senior Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials, at 9:33 AM ET a senior Iranian official saying Iran will not discuss its nuclear programme before its demands are met, at 10:10 AM ET the Iranian president's statement backing any understanding for regional unity, at 11:47 AM ET the agreement to continue talks, and at 3:36 PM ET state television saying Iran is open to a shorter US proposal timeline if conditions are met. At 2:43 PM ET the feed carried an Iranian warning to Israel that it would respond in kind to any threat.
On the incident side, the feed carried at 7:31 AM ET a press report of Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi East-West oil line pumping stations and at 1:32 PM ET maritime security reports of a vessel on fire near Iraq. The provider's commentary cited the President's Sunday remark that it is decision time on a deal with Iran, and press reports that the US is building up forces in the region into November. These are statements carried by the news feed and the provider rather than events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
On the December contracts in the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.7351 dollars a gallon against 4.787 on Friday and December gasoline at 3.1322 against 3.1284. The news feed's settlement items at 2:31 PM ET carried November diesel at 4.9120 and November gasoline at 3.2185, and at 2:32 PM ET November natural gas at 2.6020.
Against the December WTI settle, the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 97.11 dollars a barrel against 97.78 on Friday, and the gasoline margin at 29.79 against 28.12. The gasoline margin widened while crude fell and gasoline held, and the heating oil margin narrowed. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 101.96 in the provider's daily record, up 0.15 from Friday's 101.81, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The Chicago Fed national activity index printed 0.07 against a forecast of minus 0.095 at 8:30 AM ET and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index printed 13.40 against 8.8 at 10:31 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Gold's December contract settled at 4,038.4, up 0.76 percent, silver's December contract rose 0.73 percent and copper's December contract rose 0.53 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,676.77, up 0.70 percent, with the volatility index at 18.39 against 19.45. In this review's interpretation the equity gains and the lower volatility index sit alongside a modest easing of the supply premium in crude.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and managed-money short positions at 127,226, for a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the 10/22 and 10/23 gains and Monday's decline.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 299,303 for Friday in the provider's record, down from 311,983 on Thursday, and Monday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture; Monday's December volume was 246,789 contracts against 331,867 on Friday. Brent's December premium over December WTI widened to 14.05 from 13.45, and the December-January WTI spread eased to 2.27 from 2.33.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026 near the settle. Australian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET and the New Zealand rate decision at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher while the contract holds above Pivot S1 at 100.35, expected band roughly 100.60 to 102.80 absent a Gulf headline.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
French consumer confidence is listed at 3:45 AM ET and eurozone money supply at 5:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the Israeli election runs through the day, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral, expected band roughly 100.40 to 103.00, with the 102.13 relative strength projection the first resistance and Pivot S1 at 100.35 the first meaningful support.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, US Open / Pit Session)
The advance durable goods report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and new home sales for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The consumer confidence survey is listed at 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 99.90 to 103.20, with the published target price at 103.03 and Pivot R1 at 103.15 above and the 100.40 to 100.70 entry band beneath.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Tuesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The US five-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 99.20 to 104.30, with the outer edges at one standard deviation support at 99.17 and one standard deviation resistance at 104.35.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday after the 5:00 PM ET halt. The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the FOMC statement for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, so the forward window carries the week's first-order events for crude.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 100.30 to 103.10
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 99.20 to 104.30
High-range scenario: 98.10 to 105.40
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 99.17 and Pivot R2 at 104.54, with a dip toward the 100.40 to 100.70 band that holds above Monday's 100.33 low weighted slightly above a direct return to Friday's 103.92 high. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on both directional systems, the composite holds at "100% BUY", and the session lows have risen for four sessions.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a confirmed step toward de-escalation from the Tehran and Moscow meetings, which could take the contract beneath Pivot S1 at 100.35 and toward one standard deviation support at 99.17 and Friday's 98.84 low. Monday's range was narrower and the front calendar spread eased, so a deeper pullback before any extension is a live alternative.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. The Chicago Fed national activity index printed 0.07, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index printed 13.40 and the US two-year note auction stopped at a 4.708 percent high yield with a 2.590 bid-to-cover, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settled at 2:30 PM ET.
On Tuesday, October 27, 2026 French consumer confidence is listed at 3:45 AM ET and eurozone money supply at 5:00 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The advance durable goods report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a news-feed consensus of 1.9 percent against minus 0.1 percent previously, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. New home sales are scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the consumer confidence survey is listed at 10:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The five-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the Russian and Iranian presidents are due to meet in Moscow on Tuesday, per a news-feed item and unconfirmed. Crude settles at 2:30 PM ET.
Later in the week, the next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and the FOMC statement for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both as the calendar lists it. GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the seven-country producer meeting is listed for Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence for crude on Tuesday is unscheduled Gulf headlines around the Tehran and Moscow meetings, with the 8:30 AM ET durable goods report the main scheduled US release of the day.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, the composite holds at "100% BUY", and Monday's session stayed inside Friday's range. A dip into the 100.40 to 100.70 band, just above Pivot S1 at 100.35 and around the raw stochastic projection at 100.57, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath the 99.60 stochastic stall level. Diplomatic headlines from Tehran and Moscow can deepen a pullback, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the supply backdrop persists, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 100.40 to 100.70
Stop Loss: 99.55 (beneath the 14-day %K stochastic stall level at 99.60 and above one standard deviation support at 99.17)
Target 1 (T1): 101.55 (beneath the Pivot Point at 101.74 and Monday's 101.76 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 102.55 (above the 102.13 relative strength projection and beneath the published target price at 103.03)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 103.55 (above Pivot R1 at 103.15 and beneath Friday's 103.92 high)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 99.17 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 100.40.
Macro override: A confirmed de-escalation step from the Tehran or Moscow meetings would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a move through the 99.55 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Friday's 98.84 low becomes the reference, 71 cents beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 3.68 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Monday's close on October 26, 2026 for the Tuesday, October 27, 2026 session. December, which the chart's continuous symbol tracks, is the front month. Monday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 105.95 less Pivot S3 at 97.55, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 104.54 less Pivot S2 at 98.94, divided by two, both return 2.80, and three times the 101.74 Pivot Point less the 101.76 settle gives 203.46, which the 103.13 high and 100.33 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Monday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. No intraday series was preserved for Monday, so no timed price path is asserted, and no price move is tied to a headline.
Monday's card was written on the December contract and is graded only on the provider's December settlement row for 10/26 (open 102.61, high 103.13, low 100.33, settle 101.76, volume 246,789). The daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, so the order of events within Monday cannot be shown, and the card's session bands are not graded.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions through Monday; the partial Tuesday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at about 6:22 PM ET after the reopen. Monday's volume and the open-interest figures equal the provider's dated rows. Friday's 10/23 row has been revised: December volume now reads 331,867 against the 309,751 cited in Monday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 299,303. Monday's open interest had not been reported. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Monday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,038.4 on Monday, up 0.76 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
