On Wednesday December crude settled at 102.78, up 2.88 or 2.88 percent, after a 3.80 point session between 99.75 and 103.55. The settle finished at 79.7 percent of that range, in the upper quarter. Both ends sat above Tuesday's. The 103.55 high cleared Tuesday's 102.82 by 73 cents, and the 99.75 low sat 31 cents above Tuesday's 99.44. It was the largest one-day gain since the 3.80 point gain of 10/23. The settle was the highest since the 103.27 of 10/23.
Wednesday's range never reached our band. The Wednesday card was a long from 98.70 to 99.00 with a 97.85 stop. The 99.75 low stopped 75 cents above the band's top and 1.90 above that stop. All three target prices, 99.85, 100.85 and 101.85, sat inside the day's range. The band was never offered, so no fill and no result is asserted. No intraday series was preserved, so the order of the prints cannot be shown.
Brent gained less in percent. Its December contract settled at 115.32, up 1.44 or 1.26 percent, per the news feed at 2:45 PM ET and the provider's daily record. Its premium over December WTI narrowed to 12.54 from 13.98. December now sits 1.79 above January's 100.99, against 1.84 on Tuesday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased for a third session even as the outright price rose.
Reports of diplomacy filled the news flow. At 3:57 AM ET the news feed carried an item on a new Qatari draft deal presented to Iran. At 11:59 AM ET it carried a press report that the Vice President was engaging an Iranian hard-liner to revive talks. At 3:44 PM ET it carried a press report that mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. All three were reports. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so the review does not attribute the move to any one of them.
December crude settled at 102.78, up 2.88. That is 79.7 percent of a 99.75 to 103.55 range, a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday. The settle sits above all six settlement averages, 1.34 above the 5-day at 101.44. Resistance starts at the 102.79 target price, 1 cent up, then Tuesday's 102.82 high, Wednesday's 103.55 high and Friday's 103.92 high. Support starts at the 102.67 stall level, then the 102.03 Pivot Point, the 5-day average and one standard deviation support at 101.08. The setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 101.10 to 101.40, stop 100.30, targets 102.20, 103.15 and an extended 104.10. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.38 under it, and the 102.20 first target sits 58 cents beneath the settle too. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday.
Wednesday's 99.75 low stayed 75 cents above the band
First, the grading. In Wednesday's outlook we set a long on the December contract from 98.70 to 99.00, stop 97.85, with targets at 99.85, 100.85 and an extended 101.85. A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 97.57 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 98.70 would remove the edge. The card is graded on December's Wednesday bar.
Then December traded. Its bar, from the provider's settlement row, opened at 100.17 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. That was 1.17 above the band's top and 27 cents above Tuesday's settle. It marked a high of 103.55 and a low of 99.75, and settled at 102.78. The band never traded. The 99.75 low stopped 75 cents above its 99.00 top. The 97.85 stop sat 1.90 beneath that low, untouched.
Every target price sat inside the range. The low printed 10 cents beneath the 99.85 first target, and the high cleared it by 3.70. The high also cleared 100.85 by 2.70 and the extended 101.85 by 1.70. The settle finished 93 cents above that last one. Without a touch of the band, the card's entry condition was not met on the daily bar. No fill and no result is asserted. No invalidation settle printed either; the settle sat 5.21 above the 97.57 line. The daily bar cannot show the order of the prints.
Our ranges gave way mostly at the top. The low-range case of 98.60 to 101.20 held at the bottom by 1.15, and the high ran 2.35 through its top. The most likely case of 97.60 to 102.20 gave way at the top by 1.35. The high-range case of 96.20 to 103.60 held, with 5 cents to spare at the top and 3.55 at the bottom. One deviation, 97.57 to 102.23, gave way by 1.32 at the top. Two deviations, 96.60 to 103.20, gave way by 35 cents. Three deviations, 95.86 to 103.94, held by 39 cents at the top and 3.89 at the bottom. One average true range around Tuesday's settle, 96.24 to 103.56, held by a single cent at the top and 3.51 at the bottom. The session bands for Globex, London, the morning and the afternoon need an intraday series, so they are not graded.
The weighted path expected a hold between one standard deviation support at 97.57 and Pivot R1 at 102.00. It weighted a further dip toward Pivot S1 at 98.62 slightly above a direct recovery through the Pivot Point at 100.72. The high printed 1.55 above that R1, and the settle 78 cents above it. The low held 1.13 above S1. So the pictured dip never printed on the daily bar. The upside case had named a recovery above 100.72 toward 102.00 without the dip; both levels traded. The card's macro override named an inventory report showing a large build, or a confirmed step toward ending the war. The review records the inventory figure as a draw, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and records no confirmed step.
The December band at 101.10 to 101.40, just above one standard deviation support
The map moved up 2.40, the gap between the two midpoints. Every price here is the December contract. The new band, 101.10 to 101.40, sits just above one standard deviation support at 101.08, its bottom 2 cents over that line. The 5-day average at 101.44 sits 4 cents above its top. The 80 percent stochastic projection at 100.92 sits 18 cents beneath its bottom. The settle sits 1.38 above the band's top and 1.68 above its bottom. Wednesday's 99.75 low sits 1.35 beneath the bottom. The stop at 100.30 sits 20 cents beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50. It sits 8 cents beneath two standard deviations support at 100.38.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday. So the provider's overview already showed the Thursday session, with an open of 101.96, a high of 102.14 and a low of 101.88. Those prints belong to the new session. All three sit beneath Wednesday's settle, the high by 64 cents. The provider's previous close of 102.78 is Wednesday's settle. Quotes after the reopen are not settlements and do not form a preserved intraday series.
Wednesday ran wider than Tuesday and closed strong. Its 3.80 range was 1.05 times the 14-day average daily range and the widest since the 5.08 of 10/23. The settle above the 100.17 open leaves a body of 2.61. The upper shadow runs 77 cents above the settle and the lower shadow 42 cents beneath the open. Settlements over six sessions read 97.15, 99.47, 103.27, 101.76, 99.90 and 102.78. Wednesday ended a run of two lower settles. Those had followed the gains of 10/22 and 10/23. The high stopped 37 cents beneath Friday's 103.92, still the one-month, 13-week and 52-week high. The one-month low is 86.00 and the 13-week low 71.00. Over five sessions the contract is up 5.63 from the 97.15 settle of 10/21. January rose 2.93, slightly more than December. That is why the spread eased while the outright price climbed.
Resistance starts 1 cent up, at the 102.79 published target price. Tuesday's 102.82 high sits 3 cents above it. Wednesday's 103.55 high and Friday's 103.92 high follow. Then come the 70 percent relative strength projection at 104.17 and Pivot R1 at 104.30, 13 cents apart. One standard deviation resistance at 104.48 and the 104.60 crossover stall level close that band. Two standard deviations resistance at 105.18, three at 105.72 and Pivot R2 at 105.83 are the extended references. The 106.45 top of one average true range and Pivot R3 at 108.10 sit beyond.
Support starts 11 cents down, at the 102.67 stall level. The Pivot Point at 102.03 sits 75 cents beneath the settle. The 5-day average at 101.44 follows, then one standard deviation support at 101.08 and the 80 percent projection at 100.92. Pivot S1 at 100.50 is the first published pivot support. Two standard deviations support at 100.38 sits 12 cents under it. The 9-day crossing price at 100.09 and the 9-day average at 99.97 come next. Then a tight run of five levels within 49 cents. Tuesday's 99.90 settle, three standard deviations support at 99.84 and Wednesday's 99.75 low lead it. Tuesday's 99.44 low and the 99.41 projection close it. The 99.11 bottom of one average true range and Pivot S2 at 98.23 follow. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high sits at 97.07, 5.71 beneath the settle, with Pivot S3 at 96.70 under it. The long tail starts with the 18-day crossing at 96.11 and the 20-day at 95.12. It runs through the 94.96, 92.85 and 91.34 retracements and the 40-day crossing at 92.59. Further down sit the 50-day at 90.20, the 86.00 one-month low, the 100-day at 82.51, the 200-day at 77.18 and the 71.00 13-week low. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure rests on daily bars only.
Every average now sits beneath price. The settle is 1.34 above the 5-day at 101.44 and 2.81 above the 9-day at 99.97. It sits 7.66 above the 20-day at 95.12 and 12.58 above the 50-day at 90.20. The gaps to the 100-day at 82.51 and the 200-day at 77.18 are 20.27 and 25.60. The 5-day rose 1.13 from 100.31. The 10/21 settle of 97.15 left the window and 102.78 replaced it. The 20-day rose 72 cents from 94.40 as the 09/30 settle of 88.42 left, and the 50-day rose 43 cents from 89.77. The stack stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 86.92, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.82 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 71.85. Thursday's crossing prices are 100.09 for the 9-day, 96.11 for the 18-day and 92.59 for the 40-day.
Momentum readings sit high. Relative strength reads 69.50 on the 9-day, 68.10 on the 14-day and 66.54 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 86.85 percent on the 9-day and 92.41 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 84.81 percent remains beneath %D at 87.10 percent, in the upper part of the range. Positive direction leads on both windows. It reads 24.67 against 4.57 on the 9-day with the ADX at 59.30, and 24.92 against 5.88 on the 14-day with the ADX at 45.72. Historic volatility reads 31.56 percent and 27.05 percent. The composite multi-indicator read for Thursday is 100 percent buy, against the prior session's 96 percent. Its signal strength is described as maximum and its direction as strongest. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 32 percent a month ago. The short, medium and long horizon groups each average 100 percent buy. The trend indicator reads buy. These are the provider's published readings, read at about 6:23 PM ET on Wednesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's quote into them.
Ranges stay wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.67 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.62. The 9-day figures are 3.74 and 3.87 and the 20-day 3.56 and 3.64. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat. One average true range either side of the settle spans 99.11 to 106.45. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 101.08 to 104.48, 100.38 to 105.18 and 99.84 to 105.72. They describe settlement dispersion only. With GDP and the personal income and outlays report on Thursday morning, and Gulf headlines in both directions, a release can carry the contract outside any of them. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38 and 3.80.
Draft-deal reports, a 12.54 Brent premium and an unconfirmed 1.892 million barrel draw
Diplomacy ran through the headlines. At 3:57 AM ET the news feed carried an item that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with a response expected by the end of the week. At 11:59 AM ET it carried a press report that the Vice President was engaging one of Iran's most powerful hard-liners to revive peace talks. At 12:54 PM ET it carried Iran's foreign minister saying Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance. At 3:44 PM ET the feed carried a press report that mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. At 3:45 PM ET it carried a press report that the new proposal's schedule includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade.
More came after the settle. At 4:00 PM ET the feed carried a press report that the Vice President had sent a letter to the secretary of Iran's top security body. At 4:15 PM ET it carried the Treasury Secretary saying the campaign against Iran's finances is succeeding. These are reports and statements carried by the feeds rather than events confirmed for this review, and none is treated as the measured cause of Wednesday's gain. They coincided with the session. No move is attributed to any one of them.
Producers stayed quiet. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. At 2:13 PM ET the news feed carried a rating-agency statement that a higher oil price scenario than its base case would materialise if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain hampered beyond 2027. It is commentary carried by the feed rather than a supply change measured for this review. The feed also carried an investment-bank commentary item expecting Brent near 110 dollars a barrel at the end of the year. That item cited volatile Middle Eastern supply and sharply lower global inventories. It is commentary, not data captured for this review.
Then the inventory report. The calendar lists its release at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. It showed a crude draw of 1.892 million barrels against a forecast of no change and a prior draw of 3.060 million barrels, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The provider's commentary also described the report as showing a fall in crude inventories. Product and Cushing detail from the official report was not captured, so none is asserted. The calendar lists the next report for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
Products rose by less than crude. In the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.6639 dollars a gallon, up 1.01 percent from 4.6172, and December gasoline at 3.1087, up 1.47 percent from 3.0638. The heating oil margin is 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle. Against December WTI it stands at 93.10 dollars a barrel against 94.02 on Tuesday. That is its fourth straight narrower session in the dated rows. The gasoline margin stands at 27.79 against 28.78, narrower for a second session. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
The FOMC held, per the news feed. The calendar lists the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and the news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold, with two members dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point increase. The calendar lists the press conference at 2:30 PM ET, the same minute crude settled. The dollar index closed at 102.19 in the provider's daily record, down 0.13 from Tuesday's 102.32. The provider's commentary said it traded higher in the morning and fell after the FOMC outcome. The ten-year yield record closed at 5.05 percent against 4.99 percent. At 4:14 PM ET the news feed carried the Treasury Secretary repeating that there is a big correlation between yields and oil prices; it is a statement, not a relationship measured for this review.
Crude led the four markets the reviews cover. Gold's December contract settled at 4,051.6, down 0.56 percent, and silver's December contract fell 1.55 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 0.55 percent, with the volatility index at 16.91 against 17.52. In the review's interpretation, crude's composite read at maximum strength marks it as the session's driver.
Money managers held a net long as of October 20. The weekly positioning report dated that day puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and short positions at 127,226, for a net long of 36,187. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the moves of the last six sessions, and the next report is due after the Friday close. December open interest stood at 278,341 for Tuesday in the provider's record, down from 286,930 on Monday. Wednesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Wednesday's December volume was 274,349 contracts against a revised 272,470 on Tuesday. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Thursday
The review's setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 101.10 to 101.40. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day. Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low, with a close in the upper quarter of its range. The composite stands at 100 percent buy with maximum strength. That is the trend case. The band sits just above one standard deviation support at 101.08 and beneath the Pivot Point at 102.03. The 5-day average sits 4 cents above its top. The stop at 100.30 sits 20 cents beneath Pivot S1 and 8 cents beneath two standard deviations support at 100.38. The first target, 102.20, sits above the Pivot Point and 58 cents beneath Wednesday's 102.78 settle. The second, 103.15, sits beneath Wednesday's 103.55 high. The extended 104.10 sits beneath Pivot R1 at 104.30 and the 104.17 projection. In the review's reading, reported diplomacy can unwind part of the supply premium quickly. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the trend averages hold, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 101.25 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.95, 25.9 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.67. The targets sit 0.95, 1.90 and 2.85 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 1.38 and its bottom 1.68 under it. The 102.20 first target also sits beneath the settle, by 58 cents, and 80 cents above the band's top. The 103.15 second target sits 37 cents above the settle and 40 cents beneath Wednesday's high. The extended 104.10 sits 18 cents above Friday's 103.92 high. It sits 7 cents beneath the 104.17 projection and 20 cents beneath Pivot R1.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 101.20 to 103.60, the most likely 100.40 to 104.30 and the high-range case 99.10 to 105.80. Then by session. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and the provider's overview showed the new session trading beneath the settle. The review's bias is constructive while the contract holds above Pivot S1 at 100.50, with an expected band of roughly 101.00 to 103.00 absent a Gulf headline. Australian import and export prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. London runs roughly 100.80 to 103.40 with a constructive bias. UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals are listed at 5:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
The review names one standard deviation support at 101.08 as the first meaningful support. Three levels sit between the settle and that line: 102.67, 102.03 and the 5-day at 101.44. It names Wednesday's 103.55 high as the first resistance. Two levels sit between the settle and that high: the 102.79 target price and Tuesday's 102.82 high. The morning band runs roughly 100.40 to 104.00. The calendar lists GDP and the personal income and outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. Weekly jobless claims are listed at the same 8:30 AM ET and the European Central Bank decision at 9:15 AM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The entry band sits beneath the settle, inside that morning band. Pivot R1 at 104.30 sits 30 cents above the band's top. The afternoon runs roughly 100.30 to 104.50. The review puts its outer edges near two standard deviations support at 100.38 and one standard deviation resistance at 104.48. Both sit just inside the band, 8 cents above its bottom and 2 cents beneath its top.
Thursday is the data day. The seven-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Results from an online retailer and a chipmaker are due after the close, as the calendar lists them for the date only. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET after the 5:00 PM ET halt. The Bank of Japan decision is listed at 11:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. On Friday, October 30 the calendar lists results from an integrated oil company at 6:30 AM ET and the employment cost index at 8:30 AM ET. The seven-country producer meeting follows on Sunday, November 1, as the calendar lists it. US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET that day, as the calendar lists it.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 100.50 and Pivot R1 at 104.30, with a dip toward one standard deviation support at 101.08 that holds above 100.30 weighted slightly above a direct extension through Wednesday's 103.55 high. In the review's reading the reopened session trading beneath the settle and the easing front calendar spread argue for a pullback before any extension. It names an alternative. A sustained move beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50 after the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays reports would invalidate that reading. It would open two standard deviations support at 100.38 and Tuesday's 99.90 settle. The upside case is named too. Acceptance above Friday's 103.92 high would put Pivot R1 at 104.30 and one standard deviation resistance at 104.48 in play without the dip the setup needs. In the review's judgment the first-order scheduled event for crude on Thursday is the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays release, with unscheduled Gulf headlines the larger source of risk.
The reopen low of 101.88 sat 48 cents above Thursday's band, with the 5-day average at 101.44 in between.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 102.78 on Wednesday, up 2.88 or 2.88 percent from Tuesday's settle of 99.90, after trading between 103.55 and 99.75, a 3.80 point daily range. The settle finished at 79.7 percent of the range, in the upper quarter, and the 3.80 point range was 1.05 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 3.62 points. Wednesday's high sat 73 cents above Tuesday's 102.82 high and Wednesday's low sat 31 cents above Tuesday's 99.44 low, so the session printed a higher high and a higher low. The 2.88 point gain was the largest one-day gain since the 3.80 point gain of 10/23, the 3.80 point range was the widest since the 5.08 point range of 10/23, and the 102.78 settle was the highest since the 103.27 settle of 10/23.
Brent's December contract settled at 115.32, up 1.44 or 1.26 percent, per the news feed at 2:45 PM ET and the provider's daily record, so its premium over December WTI narrowed to 12.54 from 13.98 on Tuesday. The January WTI contract settled at 100.99 in the provider's daily record, which leaves December 1.79 points above January against 1.84 on Tuesday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased for a third session even as the outright price rose. Over five sessions the contract is up 5.63 points from the 97.15 settle of 10/21.
The day's news flow carried reported diplomacy. The news feed carried at 3:57 AM ET an item that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal, at 11:59 AM ET a press report that the Vice President was engaging an Iranian hard-liner to revive talks, and at 3:44 PM ET a press report that mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so this review does not attribute the move to any one of them.
The weekly petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and showed a crude draw of 1.892 million barrels against a forecast of no change, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and left the policy rate unchanged with two dissents in favour of a hike, per the news feed. The published 14-day average true range is 3.67 points. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 101.10 to 101.40 band just above one standard deviation support at 101.08, stopped at 100.30 beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50, with objectives at 102.20, 103.15 and an extended 104.10.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 100.17 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 27 cents above Tuesday's settle, marked a daily high of 103.55 and a daily low of 99.75, and settled at 102.78 at 2:30 PM ET. This review makes no claim about the order in which the high and the low printed; the daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, and that is the evidence used here.
The settle sits 3.03 points above the low and 77 cents beneath the high, so the session closed in the upper quarter of its range. The body of the daily bar measures 2.61 points from the 100.17 open to the 102.78 settle, with an upper shadow of 77 cents above the settle and a lower shadow of 42 cents beneath the open.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 101.96, 102.14 and 101.88, belong to the new Thursday session and not to Wednesday's completed session. The provider's previous close of 102.78 is Wednesday's settle.
Wednesday's completed-session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 108.10 minus Pivot S3 at 96.70, divided by three, returns 3.80, and Pivot R2 at 105.83 minus Pivot S2 at 98.23, divided by two, returns the same 3.80. Three times the Pivot Point of 102.03 less the 102.78 settle gives a high plus low sum of 203.31, which the pair of 103.55 and 99.75 reproduces to within the published rounding at 203.30, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar on the continuous symbol carry the same 100.17 open, 103.55 high, 99.75 low and 102.78 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday's 103.55 high sits 73 cents above Tuesday's 102.82, and the 99.75 low sits 31 cents above Tuesday's 99.44, so the session printed a higher high and a higher low. The high stopped 37 cents beneath Friday's 103.92, which the provider still publishes as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high.
Settlements over the last six sessions read 97.15, 99.47, 103.27, 101.76, 99.90 and 102.78, so Wednesday ended a run of two lower settles that followed the gains of 10/22 and 10/23. The one-month low published by the provider is 86.00 and the 13-week low is 71.00.
The forward curve remains in backwardation at the front: December settled 1.79 points above January's 100.99, against 1.84 points on Tuesday, 2.27 points on Monday and 2.33 points on Friday. January rose 2.93 points on the day, slightly more than December's 2.88, which is why the spread eased while the outright price climbed.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38 and 3.80, and the settlement changes over the same ten sessions read plus 2.60, plus 2.52, minus 0.48, minus 0.72, minus 0.67, plus 2.32, plus 3.80, minus 1.51, minus 1.86 and plus 2.88. Wednesday's 3.80 point range was the widest since the 5.08 point range of 10/23.
The retracement grid published for Thursday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07, 5.71 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.85 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 91.34. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Wednesday; the partial Thursday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The 5-day average stands at 101.44, the 9-day at 99.97, the 20-day at 95.12, the 50-day at 90.20, the 100-day at 82.51 and the 200-day at 77.18.
The 102.78 settle sits 1.34 points above the 5-day average, 2.81 points above the 9-day, 7.66 points above the 20-day, 12.58 points above the 50-day, 20.27 points above the 100-day and 25.60 points above the 200-day. The 5-day average rose 1.13 points from Tuesday's 100.31, because the 10/21 settle of 97.15 left the window and was replaced by 102.78. The 20-day rose 72 cents from 94.40, because the 09/30 settle of 88.42 left that window, and the 50-day rose 43 cents from 89.77.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 95.12 against 90.20 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 86.92. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.82, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 71.85. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Thursday: 100.09 for the 9-day, 96.11 for the 18-day and 92.59 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:23 PM ET on Wednesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's quote into them; they are the provider's published readings, not this review's computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 69.50, the 14-day relative strength 68.10 and the 20-day relative strength 66.54.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 86.85 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 92.41 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 84.81 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 87.10 percent, so %K remains beneath %D in the upper part of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 59.30 with the 9-day +DI at 24.67 and the 9-day -DI at 4.57; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 45.72 with the 14-day +DI at 24.92 and the 14-day -DI at 5.88, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 31.56 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 27.05 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is "100% BUY", against the prior session's snapshot of "96% BUY", with signal strength described as "Maximum" and direction as "Strongest". The snapshot history reads "100% BUY" a week ago and "32% BUY" a month ago. The short-horizon, medium-horizon and long-horizon groups each average "100% BUY", and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.67 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.62 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.74 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.87, and the 20-day average true range is 3.56 with a 20-day average daily range of 3.64. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat as the oscillators. Wednesday's 3.80 point range was 1.05 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.67 points from the 102.78 settle frames Thursday between 99.11 and 106.45. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 101.08 to 104.48, two spans 100.38 to 105.18 and three spans 99.84 to 105.72. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and with GDP and the personal income and outlays report on Thursday morning, and Gulf headlines in both directions, a release can carry the contract outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 102.78 settle, the first overhead reference is the published target price at 102.79, followed by Wednesday's 103.55 high and Friday's 103.92 high, which is also the published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high. Pivot R1 at 104.30, the 70 percent relative strength projection at 104.17, one standard deviation resistance at 104.48 and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 104.60 form the next band. Two standard deviations resistance at 105.18, three standard deviations resistance at 105.72 and Pivot R2 at 105.83 are the extended references, with Pivot R3 at 108.10 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 14-day %K stochastic stall level at 102.67 and the Pivot Point at 102.03, then one standard deviation support at 101.08 and the 80 percent raw stochastic projection at 100.92. Pivot S1 at 100.50 is the first published pivot support, with two standard deviations support at 100.38 and the 9-day average crossing price at 100.09 beneath. Tuesday's 99.90 settle, three standard deviations support at 99.84, Wednesday's 99.75 low, the 70 percent raw stochastic projection at 99.41, Pivot S2 at 98.23, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 and Pivot S3 at 96.70 are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. The news feed carried at 2:13 PM ET a rating-agency statement that a higher oil price scenario than its base case would materialise if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain hampered beyond 2027; it is commentary carried by the feed rather than a supply change measured for this review.
The news feed also carried an investment-bank commentary item expecting Brent near 110 dollars a barrel at the end of the year because Middle Eastern supply remains volatile and global inventories have fallen sharply. It is commentary, not data captured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The weekly petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. It showed a crude draw of 1.892 million barrels against a forecast of no change and a prior draw of 3.060 million barrels, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The provider's commentary also described the report as showing a fall in crude inventories. Product and Cushing detail from the official report was not captured for this review, so none is asserted.
The next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, which is the next inventory release the captured calendar lists for crude.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 3:57 AM ET an item that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with a response expected by the end of the week, at 11:59 AM ET a press report that the Vice President was engaging one of Iran's most powerful hard-liners to revive peace talks, and at 12:54 PM ET Iran's foreign minister saying Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance. At 3:44 PM ET the feed carried a press report that mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4, and at 3:45 PM ET a press report that the new proposal's schedule includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade.
After the settle, the feed carried at 4:00 PM ET a press report that the Vice President had sent a letter to the secretary of Iran's top security body, and at 4:15 PM ET the Treasury Secretary saying the campaign against Iran's finances is succeeding. These are reports and statements carried by the feeds rather than events confirmed for this review, and none is treated as the measured cause of Wednesday's gain.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
On the December contracts in the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.6639 dollars a gallon, up 1.01 percent from 4.6172 on Tuesday, and December gasoline at 3.1087, up 1.47 percent from 3.0638. Both products rose by less than crude in percentage terms.
Against the December WTI settle, the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 93.10 dollars a barrel against 94.02 on Tuesday, and the gasoline margin at 27.79 against 28.78. Both margins narrowed, the heating oil margin for a fourth straight session in the dated rows and the gasoline margin for a second. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 102.19 in the provider's daily record, down 0.13 from Tuesday's 102.32, and the provider's commentary said it traded higher in the morning and fell after the FOMC outcome. The provider's ten-year yield record closed at 5.05 percent against 4.99 percent on Tuesday. The news feed carried at 4:14 PM ET the Treasury Secretary repeating that there is a big correlation between yields and oil prices; it is a statement, not a relationship measured for this review.
Gold's December contract settled at 4,051.6, down 0.56 percent, and silver's December contract fell 1.55 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 0.55 percent, with the volatility index at 16.91 against 17.52. Crude posted the largest percentage gain of the four markets covered on Wednesday, and in this review's interpretation its composite read at maximum strength marks it as the session's driver rather than a follower.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and managed-money short positions at 127,226, for a net long of 36,187. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the moves of the last six sessions, and the next report is due after the Friday close.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 278,341 for Tuesday in the provider's record, and Wednesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture; Wednesday's December volume was 274,349 contracts. Brent's December premium over December WTI narrowed to 12.54 from 13.98, and the December-January WTI spread eased to 1.79 from 1.84.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and the provider's overview showed the new session trading beneath Wednesday's settle at the time of capture. Australian import and export prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias constructive while the contract holds above Pivot S1 at 100.50, expected band roughly 101.00 to 103.00 absent a Gulf headline.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals are listed at 5:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias constructive, expected band roughly 100.80 to 103.40, with one standard deviation support at 101.08 the first meaningful support and Wednesday's 103.55 high the first resistance beyond the Pivot Point at 102.03.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, US Open / Pit Session)
GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and weekly jobless claims are listed at the same 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European Central Bank decision is listed at 9:15 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 100.40 to 104.00, with the 101.10 to 101.40 entry band beneath and Pivot R1 at 104.30 above.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Thursday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The seven-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Expected band roughly 100.30 to 104.50, with the outer edges near two standard deviations support at 100.38 and one standard deviation resistance at 104.48.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday after the 5:00 PM ET halt. Results from an online retailer and a chipmaker are due after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them for the date only. The Bank of Japan decision is listed at 11:30 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the employment cost index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 101.20 to 103.60
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 100.40 to 104.30
High-range scenario: 99.10 to 105.80
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 100.50 and Pivot R1 at 104.30, with a dip toward one standard deviation support at 101.08 that holds above 100.30 weighted slightly above a direct extension through Wednesday's 103.55 high. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on both directional systems and the composite reads "100% BUY", while the reopened session trading beneath the settle and the easing front calendar spread argue for a pullback before any extension.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a sustained move beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50 after the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays reports on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, which would open two standard deviations support at 100.38 and Tuesday's 99.90 settle. On the other side, acceptance above Friday's 103.92 high would put Pivot R1 at 104.30 and one standard deviation resistance at 104.48 in play without the dip the setup needs.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Wednesday's releases are complete. The weekly petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and showed a crude draw of 1.892 million barrels against a forecast of no change, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET and the press conference began at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both as the calendar lists them; the news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold, with two members dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point increase. Crude settled at 2:30 PM ET.
On Thursday, October 29, 2026 UK consumer credit is listed at 5:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, with weekly jobless claims listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European Central Bank decision is listed at 9:15 AM ET and the seven-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Results from an online retailer and a chipmaker are due after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and the Bank of Japan decision is listed at 11:30 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the cycle, the employment cost index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, results from an integrated oil company for 6:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and the seven-country producer meeting is listed for Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it. US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order scheduled event for crude on Thursday is the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays release, with unscheduled Gulf headlines the larger source of risk.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, Wednesday printed a higher high and a higher low with a close in the upper quarter of its range, and the composite stands at "100% BUY" with maximum strength. A dip into the 101.10 to 101.40 band, just above one standard deviation support at 101.08 and beneath the Pivot Point at 102.03, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50. Reported diplomacy can unwind part of the supply premium quickly, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the trend averages hold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 101.10 to 101.40
Stop Loss: 100.30 (20 cents beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50 and 8 cents beneath two standard deviations support at 100.38)
Target 1 (T1): 102.20 (above the Pivot Point at 102.03 and beneath Wednesday's 102.78 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 103.15 (beneath Wednesday's 103.55 high)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 104.10 (beneath Pivot R1 at 104.30 and the 70 percent relative strength projection at 104.17)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S1 at 100.50 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 101.10.
Macro override: A confirmed step toward a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a move through the 100.30 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Tuesday's 99.90 settle becomes the reference, 40 cents beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 3.67 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Wednesday's close on October 28, 2026 for the Thursday, October 29, 2026 session. December, which the chart's continuous symbol tracks, is the front month. Wednesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 108.10 less Pivot S3 at 96.70, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 105.83 less Pivot S2 at 98.23, divided by two, both return 3.80. Three times the 102.03 Pivot Point less the 102.78 settle gives 203.31, which the 103.55 high and 99.75 low reproduce at 203.30, within the published rounding. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Wednesday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. No intraday series was preserved for Wednesday, so no timed price path is asserted, and no price move is tied to a headline or to the inventory report.
Wednesday's card was written on the December contract and is graded only on the provider's December settlement row for 10/28 (open 100.17, high 103.55, low 99.75, settle 102.78, volume 274,349). The daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, so the order of events within Wednesday cannot be shown, and the card's session bands are not graded.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions through Wednesday; the partial Thursday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at about 6:23 PM ET after the reopen. Wednesday's volume and the open-interest figures equal the provider's dated rows. Tuesday's 10/27 row has been revised: December volume now reads 272,470 against the 255,150 cited in Wednesday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 278,341. Wednesday's open interest had not been reported. The heating oil margin history comes from the dated product and crude rows. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,051.6 on Wednesday, down 0.56 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
