At the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen the December Nasdaq-100 contract opened at 29,814.25, 2.25 points above Tuesday's settle and 185.75 points beneath the short band we published for Wednesday. By the settle the day had covered most of that card. The band traded. The 30,140 stop price traded as well, and the first two targets printed. The extended target missed by 14.25 points. A daily bar cannot say in what order.
The contract settled at 29,979.50, up 167.50 points, or 0.56 percent, at 60.6 percent of a 503.75 point range. It was a third straight higher settle and the highest since the 30,007.00 of 10/21. The 30,178.00 high was the highest since 10/16. The Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 0.55 percent to 29,813.16. Results from two of the largest technology companies followed the close. GDP is next.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 29,979.50, up 167.50 points, with a higher high and a higher low for a third straight session. Wednesday's published short band at 30,000 to 30,040 traded, the 30,140 stop price traded, and the 29,900 and 29,780 targets printed, while the 29,660 extended target did not; the daily bar cannot show the order. The settle sits above the 5-day, 9-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages and beneath the 20-day and 50-day. The primary setup for Thursday is a short from 29,940 to 29,980, a band that holds the Pivot Point at 29,943.92, the 100-day average and the settle, stop 30,080, targets 29,840, 29,720 and an extended 29,600, all three beneath the settle. GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them.
Wednesday’s card: band and stop price traded, two targets printed, the extended one missed by 14.25
In Wednesday’s outlook we set a short from 30,000 to 30,040, stop 30,140. Its targets sat at 29,900, 29,780 and an extended 29,660. Wednesday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-10-28 settlement row, opened at 29,814.25 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 30,178.00 and a low of 29,674.25, and settled at 29,979.50. The range spanned the whole band. The open sat 185.75 points beneath its bottom. The high cleared its top by 138.00.
The stop price traded too. The high stood 38.00 points above 30,140, while the settle finished 160.50 beneath it and 20.50 beneath the band bottom. On the other side, the low sat 225.75 points beneath the first target and 105.75 beneath the second, so both prices printed. The extended 29,660 did not print. The low stopped 14.25 points above it. No intraday series was preserved for Wednesday. So the daily bar cannot show whether the band, the stop or the targets traded first, and no order is asserted here. No fill and no result are asserted either.
The card's settle test held. Its invalidation needed a settle above one standard deviation resistance at 30,209.67. The settle finished 230.17 points beneath that line, and the high stopped 31.67 short of it. Its acceptance test needed two consecutive 30-minute closes above 30,040. Without a 30-minute series that test cannot be read bar by bar. The settle itself sat 60.50 points beneath 30,040 and 79.50 above the first target.
Its macro override named a statement or press conference read as easing rate-increase expectations. The FOMC statement came at 2:00 PM ET and the press conference at 2:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. The news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold, with two dissents in favour of an increase. The provider's commentary described the market reading of the outcome as slightly dovish, with the two-year yield down 4 basis points. The override's reference, the 30,160.56 equivalent of the NDX 30,000 strike, traded. The high cleared it by 17.44 points. The bar cannot place that print before or after 2:00 PM ET, and the review ties no move to the decision.
Our ranges are scored against the whole day's extremes, which is all the daily bar allows. Three held. The most likely case of 29,410 to 30,210 contained the day, with 264.25 points to spare beneath the low and 32.00 above the high. The high-range case of 29,270 to 30,355 and the afternoon band of 29,410 to 30,210 did too. The low-range case and the morning band, both 29,560 to 30,040, did not. The high cleared their top by 138.00. London's 29,660 to 30,000 held the low by 14.25 points, but the high cleared its top by 178.00. The night band missed at both ends. Its 29,700 bottom sat 25.75 points above the low, and the high cleared its 29,950 top by 228.00. The bar cannot place the high or the low in any one session.
The most probable path, an analyst judgment, kept the contract between one standard deviation support at 29,414.33 and one standard deviation resistance at 30,209.67. It held. The low stayed 259.92 points above the lower line, and the high stopped 31.67 beneath the upper one. The weighted case within it was a test of the band around Pivot R1 at 30,032.83 that fails ahead of the FOMC statement. The bar shows part of that. The high cleared R1 by 145.17 points, and the settle finished 53.33 beneath it. Whether the test came ahead of the statement, the bar cannot say. The alternative, a settle above Pivot R2 at 30,253.67, did not come, as the high stopped 75.67 short of R2. Nor did a fall through Pivot S1 at 29,439.58. The low held 234.67 above it.
A 166.34 point basis, a settle inside the new band and two averages overhead
The basis widened to 166.34 points, the 29,979.50 settle less the 29,813.16 cash close, from 160.56 on Tuesday. The review converts four positioning levels at it. The modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,590 becomes 29,756.34, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,354 becomes 29,520.34 and the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675 becomes 29,841.34. The NDX 30,000 strike, home of the largest gamma concentration, becomes 30,166.34. The conversions are the review's own. The settle sits 138.16 points above the ceiling equivalent and 186.84 beneath the strike equivalent.
Resistance starts 11.97 points up, at the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,991.47. The 10/21 settle of 30,007.00 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 30,037.12 follow. Then a tight knot. The 14-day relative strength projection at 50 percent, 30,080.24, the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 30,089.64 and the 50-day average at 30,091.75 sit within 11.51 points. Thursday's 30,080 stop sits 0.24 beneath the first of them.
Five more references sit within 51.49 points higher up. They are the 30,166.34 strike equivalent, Wednesday's 30,178.00 high, the 18-day crossing price at 30,192.04, Pivot R1 at 30,213.58 and the 40-day crossing price at 30,217.83. The published target price at 30,246.28, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,301.75 and the 20-day average at 30,320.25 come next. One standard deviation resistance at 30,368.55 and Pivot R2 at 30,447.67 follow. The one-ATR line at 30,519.99 and two standard deviations resistance at 30,529.71 sit 9.72 apart. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,612.03, three standard deviations resistance at 30,653.36 and Pivot R3 at 30,717.33 form the extended band. The 31,616.50 52-week, 13-week and one-month high from 10/06 caps the list, 1,637.00 points up.
Support starts 27.25 points down, at the 100-day average at 29,952.25. The Pivot Point at 29,943.92 sits 8.33 beneath it. Both lie inside Thursday's short band. Beneath the band come Tuesday's 29,881.25 high and the 29,841.34 ceiling equivalent. Wednesday's 29,814.25 open and Tuesday's 29,812.00 settle sit 2.25 apart. The 29,756.34 threshold equivalent, Pivot S1 at 29,709.83 and Wednesday's 29,674.25 low follow.
Lower still, the 9-day crossing price at 29,611.66, one standard deviation support at 29,590.45 and the 9-day average at 29,587.25 sit within 24.41 points. The 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 29,549.25, the 29,520.34 flip equivalent and the 5-day average at 29,497.75 come next. Then another knot. Pivot S2 at 29,440.17, the one-ATR line at 29,439.01 and two standard deviations support at 29,429.29 sit within 10.88 points. Three standard deviations support at 29,305.64, Tuesday's 29,288.00 low and Pivot S3 at 29,206.08 follow, then Friday's 28,987.00 low, the one-month low. The 200-day average at 28,426.00 and the 27,482.00 13-week low from 07/29 lie far below.
Two averages sit overhead. The settle sits 112.25 points beneath the 50-day at 30,091.75 and 340.75 beneath the 20-day at 30,320.25. It sits 27.25 above the 100-day at 29,952.25, 392.25 above the 9-day at 29,587.25, 481.75 above the 5-day at 29,497.75 and 1,553.50 above the 200-day at 28,426.00. The review computed the averages from 259 completed daily settlements, with the partial Thursday row dropped, and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick. The 5-day fell 5.50 from Tuesday's 29,503.25 as the 10/21 settle of 30,007.00 left the window. The 20-day fell 36.00 from 30,356.25 as the 09/30 settle of 30,698.75 dropped out. The 50-day rose 2.00 from 30,089.75. Older settlements sit lower. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 29,939.42, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 29,812.64 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 26,899.58. Thursday's crossing prices are 29,611.66 for the 9-day, 30,192.04 for the 18-day and 30,217.83 for the 40-day.
Momentum sits near the middle. Relative strength reads 50.08 on the 9-day, 48.62 on the 14-day and 48.89 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 80.17 percent on the 9-day and 43.11 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 31.39 percent sits 11.71 points above %D at 19.68 percent, in the lower half of the range. Sellers still lead both windows, by a narrower margin on the 9-day. There, negative direction at 23.80 tops positive at 21.41 by 2.39, with the ADX at 34.98; on the 14-day, 24.55 tops 19.91 by 4.64, with the ADX at 24.91. Historic volatility reads 23.97 percent and 20.99 percent. These readings are as published, read at about 6:24 PM ET on Wednesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen. They may already blend in the reopened session's quote.
A composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday sits at 24 percent buy, with strength and direction both described as average, against 16 percent sell in the prior session's snapshot. A week ago it read 32 percent sell. A month ago, 88 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 20 percent buy, the medium 25 percent buy and the long 67 percent buy. The trend indicator reads sell.
Wednesday's bar had a modest body. The settle finished 165.25 points above the 29,814.25 open, with an upper shadow of 198.50 points above the settle and a lower shadow of 140.00 points beneath the open. The high topped Tuesday's by 296.75 points and the low topped Tuesday's by 386.25. The 503.75 point range was 0.88 times the 14-day average daily range of 572.59. The 14-day average true range stands at 540.49 points; the 9-day figures are 558.78 and 617.25 and the 20-day figures 529.29 and 546.67, all read after the reopen with the same caveat as the oscillators.
One average true range either side of the settle spans 29,439.01 to 30,519.99. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 29,590.45 to 30,368.55, 29,429.29 to 30,529.71 and 29,305.64 to 30,653.36. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 574.25, 956.25, 757.50, 511.75, 385.50, 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25 and 503.75 points. The settlement changes over those sessions net to minus 203.25. Over five sessions the contract is down 27.50 points from the 30,007.00 settle of 10/21, and it has recovered 837.50 of the 865.00 points lost on 10/22. No four-hour series was captured, so the swing read rests on daily bars.
A 1.75 percent chip gain, a 0.55 percent Nasdaq-100 rise and results after the close
Chips led again. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 29,813.16, up 161.72 points or 0.55 percent. The semiconductor index rose 201.49 points, or 1.75 percent, to 11,684.00, after trading between 11,731.31 and 11,488.36. The broad market lagged. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.28 percent and the Dow industrials 0.19 percent, so the Nasdaq-100 outpaced both. The provider's commentary said chip stocks received a boost after the world's second-largest memory chipmaker reported favourable quarterly results. That is the provider's framing, and the review measured no such relationship.
The results came after the cash close. From 4:15 PM ET the news feed carried a search-engine group's third-quarter results and call. The news feed carried the group's statement that search query growth was the fastest in five years. Then the cash figures. At 4:18 PM ET the news feed carried trailing twelve-month free cash flow of 19.75 billion dollars, down 73 percent from a year earlier. Spending rose, per the news feed. At 4:58 PM ET it carried research and development spending up 36 percent. At 4:59 PM ET the news feed carried an 8.2 billion dollar other-income loss attributed to a fall in the value of a holding. The call also covered tensor-processor work with an artificial-intelligence developer, a consumer-electronics maker and a social-media group, per the news feed.
The provider's commentary said the search-engine group fell more than 7 percent after reporting disappointing revenue. The same commentary said the software maker rose more than 3 percent in after-hours trading after its cloud results beat estimates, and that a database-software group rallied more than 11 percent after the close. Those figures are attributed to that commentary and not verified independently. They arrived after the cash close. So they are not part of Wednesday's settlement. The news feed also carried results from a parcel carrier, an online marketplace and an automaker after the close, each beating its adjusted earnings estimate, per the news feed.
The decision is done. The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, and the press conference began at 2:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. The news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold. Two members dissented in favour of a 25 basis point increase, per the news feed. The provider's commentary described the market reading of the outcome as slightly dovish, with the two-year yield down 4 basis points. The provider's ten-year yield record closed at 5.05 percent against 4.99 percent. No real-yield series was captured, so no real-yield level is asserted. No Wednesday price move is tied to the decision.
Geopolitical items ran through the day. At 3:57 AM ET the news feed carried an item on Iran. Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal, per the news feed. At 11:59 AM ET the news feed carried a press report that the Vice President was engaging an Iranian hard-liner to revive talks. At 3:44 PM ET a press report carried by the news feed said mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than confirmed events. No causal link to the index is asserted.
Crude rose. December WTI settled at 102.78, up 2.88 percent. The provider's commentary listed the oil rally among the factors that undercut stocks; that listing is the commentary's own. The dollar index closed at 102.19 against 102.32. December gold settled at 4,051.6, down 0.56 percent. The volatility index eased to 16.91 from 17.52.
The cash close sits above three positioning lines. The dealer-positioning dataset's reference prices are the prior session's closes: NDX 29,651 corresponds to Tuesday's 29,651.44 cash close, and QQQ 721 to the fund's previous close of 721.24. Against Wednesday's 29,813.16 close, the index sits 223.16 points above the 29,590 modeled volatility threshold, 459.16 above the 29,354 modeled gamma-flip level and 138.16 above the 29,675 call side ceiling. It sits 186.84 points beneath 30,000, the strike with the largest gamma concentration. The put side support base at 28,000 lies 1,813.16 points beneath the close. The index model's gamma tilt reads 1.229 and its gamma notional 4.806 million dollars, both model outputs. The dataset lists 30,000, 29,675, 29,000 and 31,000 as key index strikes.
On the QQQ proxy the call side ceiling sits at 760, the modeled gamma-flip level at 725, the modeled volatility threshold at 721, the largest gamma concentration at 720 and the put side support base at 700. Those are proxy levels. The fund's gamma tilt reads 0.756 and its gamma notional minus 543.966 million dollars, proxy model outputs. The console, read at about 6:26 PM ET with a page date of 2026-10-28, shows call gamma of minus 1.73 billion against put gamma of minus 2.29 billion, with the fund at 719.92 at the read. One-month implied volatility reads 21.50 percent against realised volatility of 18.99 percent. That puts implied 2.51 points above realised, with the remaining large-company results still ahead. The implied-volatility rank reads 45.24 percent, the skew rank 61.60 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.42.
In the review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, an index close above the threshold, the flip level and the call side ceiling, with index gamma notional only marginally positive and the fund's still negative, describes an environment where the ceiling has been crossed and dealer hedging gives little damping. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes, and no directional read is drawn from options volume or modeled gamma.
Activity firmed slightly. Volume reached 600,583 contracts, against Tuesday's 592,565 on the 2026-10-27 row, a figure revised from the 580,617 carried in Wednesday's outlook. Open interest reads 267,148 on that 2026-10-27 row, which Wednesday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 4,312 beneath the 271,460 on the 2026-10-26 row. Wednesday's figure is not yet reported. The weekly positioning report dated October 20 puts leveraged-fund longs at 51,749 contracts and shorts at 50,799. That is a net long of 950 against a net short of 11,593 a week earlier. Asset-manager longs stand at 109,985 and shorts at 32,195. The report predates the moves of the last six sessions.
The trade map for Thursday
The primary setup is a short from 29,940 to 29,980. The composite reads 24 percent buy, yet its trend indicator reads sell. Negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages. The provider's overview showed the reopened session trading beneath the settle at the time of capture. The band holds three references. The Pivot Point at 29,943.92 sits 3.92 above its bottom, the 100-day average at 29,952.25 sits inside it, and the 29,979.50 settle sits 0.50 beneath its top. The top sits 11.47 beneath the 29,991.47 retracement. Then the stop. At 30,080 it sits 42.88 points above the 30,037.12 retracement and 0.24 beneath the 30,080.24 relative strength projection.
All three targets sit beneath the settle. The first, 29,840, sits 1.34 beneath the 29,841.34 ceiling equivalent and 139.50 beneath the settle. The second, 29,720, sits 10.17 above Pivot S1 at 29,709.83. Then the extended third. At 29,600 it sits 11.66 beneath the 9-day crossing price at 29,611.66 and 9.55 above one standard deviation support at 29,590.45. Three consecutive higher lows show buyers remain active. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold after the results, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 29,960 midpoint the risk to the stop is 120 points, 22.2 percent of the 14-day average true range of 540.49. The targets sit 120, 240 and 360 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 100.00 points beneath the band bottom and 139.50 beneath the settle. The second sits 259.50 beneath the settle. The third sits 379.50 beneath it.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 29,550 to 29,950, its top 29.50 beneath the settle, and the most likely 29,430 to 30,080. The high-range case runs 29,206 to 30,368. Pivot S3 sits 0.08 inside its bottom, and one standard deviation resistance 0.55 above its top. Then the sessions. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and the review expects roughly 29,550 to 29,950 through the night, with a lower bias beneath the Pivot Point. London follows at 29,500 to 29,950, bias lower. Pivot S1 is the first pivot support beneath the Pivot Point, with the 29,841.34 and 29,756.34 equivalents between them. The morning band runs 29,430 to 30,040. The setup band's top sits 60.00 points beneath its top. The afternoon band runs 29,430 to 30,080. Two standard deviations support sits 0.71 beneath its bottom and the 30,080.24 projection 0.24 above its top.
Thursday's calendar starts overnight. Australian import and export prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals are listed at 5:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Then the data. GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Weekly jobless claims are listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European Central Bank decision is listed at 9:15 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash session opens at 9:30 AM ET. The seven-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A card network and a drugmaker report on Thursday, as the calendar lists them. An online retailer and a processor maker follow after the close, as the calendar lists them. Globex halts at 5:00 PM ET and reopens at 6:00 PM ET. The Bank of Japan decision is listed at 11:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The employment cost index follows at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, as the calendar lists it.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 29,440.17 and the 30,080.24 relative strength projection. Within it, a rebound toward the Pivot Point that fails is weighted slightly above a sustained recovery above Wednesday's settle. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative is a settle above Pivot R1 at 30,213.58 after the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays reports, as the calendar lists them. That would open the published target price at 30,246.28 and one standard deviation resistance at 30,368.55. On the other side, a fall through two standard deviations support at 29,429.29 would bring Pivot S3 at 29,206.08 into play without the rebound the setup needs. In the review's judgment the first-order event on Thursday is the cash-session reaction to the search-engine group and the software maker alongside the 8:30 AM ET release.
Wednesday's 29,979.50 settle, the highest since 10/21, sits 0.50 points beneath the top of Thursday's short band.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 29,979.50 on Wednesday, up 167.50 or 0.56 percent from Tuesday's settle of 29,812.00, after trading between 30,178.00 and 29,674.25, a 503.75 point daily range. The settle finished at 60.6 percent of the range, and the 503.75 point range was 0.88 multiples of the published 14-day average daily range of 572.59 points. Wednesday's high sat 296.75 points above Tuesday's 29,881.25 high and Wednesday's low sat 386.25 points above Tuesday's 29,288.00 low, so the session printed a higher high and a higher low. The gain was the third consecutive higher settle, the 29,979.50 settle was the highest since the 30,007.00 settle of 10/21, and the 30,178.00 high was the highest session high since the 30,225.00 high of 10/16.
The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 29,813.16, up 161.72 or 0.55 percent, and the semiconductor index rose 1.75 percent to 11,684.00, while the S&P 500 cash index rose 0.28 percent and the Dow industrials 0.19 percent. December WTI crude rose 2.88 percent to 102.78, the dollar index closed at 102.19 against 102.32 and the provider's ten-year yield record closed at 5.05 percent against 4.99 percent. The volatility index closed at 16.91 against 17.52. The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold, with two dissents in favour of an increase.
After the close the news feed carried a search-engine group's third-quarter results and call from 4:15 PM ET onward, including trailing free cash flow down 73 percent from a year earlier and an 8.2 billion dollar other-income loss attributed to a fall in the value of a holding. The provider's commentary said the search-engine group fell more than 7 percent after reporting disappointing revenue and that a software maker rose more than 3 percent in after-hours trading after its cloud results beat estimates, figures attributed to that commentary and not verified independently. These items arrived after the cash close, so they are not part of Wednesday's settlement; no intraday series was preserved for any claim about the session's path.
The cash close sits 223.16 points above the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,590 and 138.16 points above the primary call side ceiling at NDX 29,675, and 186.84 points beneath the NDX 30,000 strike that carries the largest gamma concentration, in the dealer-positioning dataset, whose levels are model outputs. The composite multi-indicator read is "24% BUY", up from "16% SELL", with strength "Average" and direction "Average", and the settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages. The Primary Setup below is a short from the 29,940 to 29,980 band around the Pivot Point at 29,943.92, stopped at 30,080, with objectives at 29,840, 29,720 and an extended 29,600.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 29,814.25 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.25 points above Tuesday's settle, marked a daily high of 30,178.00 and a daily low of 29,674.25, and settled at 29,979.50. This review makes no claim about the order in which the high and the low printed; the daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, and that is the evidence used here.
The settle sits 305.25 points above the low and 198.50 points beneath the high, so the session closed in the upper half of its range. The body of the daily bar measures 165.25 points from the 29,814.25 open to the 29,979.50 settle, with an upper shadow of 198.50 points above the settle and a lower shadow of 140.00 points beneath the open.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 29,793.50, 29,794.25 and 29,686.25, belong to the new Thursday session and not to Wednesday's completed session. The provider's previous close of 29,979.50 is Wednesday's settle.
Wednesday's completed-session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 30,717.33 minus Pivot S3 at 29,206.08, divided by three, returns 503.75, and Pivot R2 at 30,447.67 minus Pivot S2 at 29,440.17, divided by two, returns the same 503.75. Three times the Pivot Point of 29,943.92 less the 29,979.50 settle gives a high plus low sum of 59,852.26, which the pair of 30,178.00 and 29,674.25 reproduces to within the published rounding at 59,852.25, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar carry the same 29,814.25 open, 30,178.00 high, 29,674.25 low and 29,979.50 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday's 30,178.00 high sits 296.75 points above Tuesday's 29,881.25, and the 29,674.25 low sits 386.25 points above Tuesday's 29,288.00, so the session printed a higher high and a higher low for a third consecutive session. Settlements over the last six sessions read 30,007.00, 29,142.00, 29,117.75, 29,437.25, 29,812.00 and 29,979.50 from 10/21, so the contract has recovered 837.50 points of the 865.00 point decline of 10/22.
The provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high is 31,616.50 from 10/06, the one-month low is Friday's 28,987.00 and the 13-week low is 27,482.00. The five-day change is minus 27.50 points from the 30,007.00 settle of 10/21.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 757.50, 511.75, 385.50, 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25 and 503.75 from 10/19, and the settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 331.00, minus 47.25, plus 331.75, minus 865.00, minus 24.25, plus 319.50, plus 374.75 and plus 167.50.
The retracement grid published for Thursday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,991.47, 11.97 points above the settle, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 30,037.12, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,301.75 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,612.03. Beneath, the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range sits at 29,549.25. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Wednesday; the partial Thursday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. Rounded once to the quarter-point tick, the 5-day average stands at 29,497.75, the 9-day at 29,587.25, the 20-day at 30,320.25, the 50-day at 30,091.75, the 100-day at 29,952.25 and the 200-day at 28,426.00.
The 29,979.50 settle sits 481.75 points above the 5-day average, 392.25 points above the 9-day, 340.75 points beneath the 20-day, 112.25 points beneath the 50-day, 27.25 points above the 100-day and 1,553.50 points above the 200-day. The 5-day average fell 5.50 points from Tuesday's 29,503.25, because the 10/21 settle of 30,007.00 left the window and was replaced by 29,979.50. The 20-day fell 36.00 points from 30,356.25, because the 09/30 settle of 30,698.75 left that window, and the 50-day rose 2.00 points from 30,089.75.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 29,939.42. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,812.64, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 26,899.58. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Thursday: 29,611.66 for the 9-day, 30,192.04 for the 18-day and 30,217.83 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:24 PM ET on Wednesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's quote into them; they are the provider's published readings and were not computed here. The 9-day relative strength reads 50.08, the 14-day relative strength 48.62 and the 20-day relative strength 48.89.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 80.17 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 43.11 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 31.39 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 19.68 percent, so %K sits above %D in the lower half of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 34.98 with the 9-day +DI at 21.41 and the 9-day -DI at 23.80; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 24.91 with the 14-day +DI at 19.91 and the 14-day -DI at 24.55, so negative direction still leads on both, by a narrower margin on the 9-day. The 9-day historic volatility reads 23.97 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 20.99 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is "24% BUY", against the prior session's snapshot of "16% SELL", with signal strength described as "Average" and direction as "Average". The snapshot history reads "32% SELL" a week ago and "88% BUY" a month ago. The short-horizon group averages "20% BUY", the medium-horizon group "25% BUY" and the long-horizon group "67% BUY", and the composite trend indicator reads sell.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 540.49 points and the 14-day average daily range at 572.59 points; the 9-day average true range is 558.78 with a 9-day average daily range of 617.25, and the 20-day average true range is 529.29 with a 20-day average daily range of 546.67. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat as the oscillators. Wednesday's 503.75 point range was 0.88 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 540.49 points from the 29,979.50 settle frames Thursday between 29,439.01 and 30,519.99. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 29,590.45 to 30,368.55, two spans 29,429.29 to 30,529.71 and three spans 29,305.64 to 30,653.36. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and the after-hours reaction to the search-engine group and the software maker, followed by GDP and inflation data on Thursday morning, can carry the contract outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 29,979.50 settle, the first overhead references are the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,991.47 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 30,037.12, followed by the 14-day relative strength projection at 50 percent, 30,080.24, and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 30,089.64, with the 50-day average at 30,091.75 2.11 points above it. Wednesday's 30,178.00 high, the 30,166.34 conversion of the NDX 30,000 strike at the measured basis, the 18-day average crossing price at 30,192.04, Pivot R1 at 30,213.58 and the 40-day average crossing price at 30,217.83 form the next band. The published target price at 30,246.28, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,301.75, the 20-day average at 30,320.25, one standard deviation resistance at 30,368.55 and Pivot R2 at 30,447.67 come next, with the one-ATR line at 30,519.99, two standard deviations resistance at 30,529.71, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,612.03, three standard deviations resistance at 30,653.36 and Pivot R3 at 30,717.33 the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 100-day average at 29,952.25 and the Pivot Point at 29,943.92, then Tuesday's 29,881.25 high, the 29,841.34 conversion of the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675, Wednesday's 29,814.25 open, Tuesday's 29,812.00 settle and the 29,756.34 conversion of the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,590. Pivot S1 at 29,709.83, Wednesday's 29,674.25 low, the 9-day average crossing price at 29,611.66, one standard deviation support at 29,590.45 and the 9-day average at 29,587.25 form the next band, with the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 29,549.25, the 29,520.34 conversion of the modeled gamma-flip level and the 5-day average at 29,497.75 beneath. Pivot S2 at 29,440.17, the one-ATR line at 29,439.01, two standard deviations support at 29,429.29, three standard deviations support at 29,305.64, Tuesday's 29,288.00 low, Pivot S3 at 29,206.08 and Friday's 28,987.00 low, the one-month low, are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Largest-Company Results and the AI Spending Cycle
Results from a search-engine group and a software maker were released after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only. The news feed carried from 4:15 PM ET onward the search-engine group's statement that search query growth was the fastest in five years, at 4:18 PM ET trailing twelve-month free cash flow of 19.75 billion dollars, down 73 percent from a year earlier, at 4:58 PM ET research and development spending up 36 percent, and at 4:59 PM ET an 8.2 billion dollar other-income loss attributed to a fall in the value of a holding. The call also covered tensor-processor work with an artificial-intelligence developer, a consumer-electronics maker and a social-media group, per the news feed.
The provider's commentary said the search-engine group fell more than 7 percent after reporting disappointing revenue and the software maker rose more than 3 percent in after-hours trading after its cloud results beat estimates, and that a database-software group rallied more than 11 percent after the close, all attributed to that commentary and not verified independently. Results from an online retailer and a processor maker are due after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index closed at 11,684.00, up 201.49 or 1.75 percent, after trading between 11,731.31 and 11,488.36. The provider's commentary said chip stocks received a boost after the world's second-largest memory chipmaker reported favourable quarterly results; that is the provider's framing, not a relationship measured. The Nasdaq-100 cash index's 0.55 percent gain outpaced the S&P 500 cash index's 0.28 percent and the Dow industrials' 0.19 percent.
After the close the news feed carried results from a parcel carrier, an online marketplace and an automaker, each beating its adjusted earnings estimate, per the news feed.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the press conference began at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold, with two members dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point increase, and the provider's commentary described the market reading of the outcome as slightly dovish, with the two-year yield down 4 basis points. The provider's ten-year yield record closed at 5.05 percent against 4.99 percent. No real-yield series was captured, so no real-yield level is asserted.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 3:57 AM ET an item that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal, at 11:59 AM ET a press report that the Vice President was engaging an Iranian hard-liner to revive talks, and at 3:44 PM ET a press report that mediators and Iran were discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. December WTI crude rose 2.88 percent to 102.78, and the provider's commentary listed the oil rally among the factors that undercut stocks.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed at 16.91 against 17.52 on Tuesday. The dollar index closed at 102.19 against 102.32. Gold's December contract fell 0.56 percent to 4,051.6. The fund's one-month implied volatility of 21.50 percent against realised volatility of 18.99 percent, read on the QQQ console at about 6:26 PM ET, puts implied 2.51 points above realised with the remaining mega-cap results still ahead.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts leveraged-fund long positions at 51,749 contracts and short positions at 50,799, a net long of 950 against a net short of 11,593 a week earlier, and asset-manager long positions at 109,985 against short positions of 32,195. The report predates the moves of the last six sessions.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 267,148 for Tuesday, on the 2026-10-27 row of the provider's record, and Wednesday's open interest is not yet reported; Wednesday's December volume was 600,583 contracts, against 592,565 on Tuesday's 2026-10-27 row, revised from the 580,617 carried in Wednesday's outlook.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
This review uses the QQQ fund and the index columns of the dealer-positioning dataset as the proxy for the positioning data available. The dataset's reference prices are the prior session's closes: NDX 29,651 corresponds to Tuesday's 29,651.44 cash close and QQQ 721 corresponds to the fund's previous close of 721.24 shown on the console.
On the index the modeled volatility threshold sits at NDX 29,590, the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675, the largest gamma concentration at NDX 30,000, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,354 and the put side support base at NDX 28,000. Against Wednesday's 29,813.16 cash close, the close sits 223.16 points above the threshold, 459.16 points above the flip level, 138.16 points above the call side ceiling and 1,813.16 points above the put side base, and 186.84 points beneath the 30,000 strike. Index gamma tilt reads 1.229 and gamma notional 4.806 million dollars, both model outputs, and the key index strikes are NDX 30,000, 29,675, 29,000 and 31,000.
On the fund the modeled volatility threshold sits at 721, the largest gamma concentration at 720, the call side ceiling at 760, the modeled gamma-flip level at 725 and the put side support base at 700. Fund gamma tilt reads 0.756 and gamma notional minus 543.966 million dollars, proxy model outputs. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
At the measured 166.34 point basis, the December settle of 29,979.50 less the 29,813.16 cash close, this review converts the index threshold to 29,756.34, the flip level to 29,520.34, the call side ceiling to 29,841.34 and the 30,000 strike to 30,166.34 in December futures terms. These conversions are this review's, not the dataset's.
The QQQ console, read at about 6:26 PM ET with a page date of 2026-10-28, shows call gamma of minus 1.73 billion against put gamma of minus 2.29 billion, one-month implied volatility of 21.50 percent against realised volatility of 18.99 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 45.24 percent, a skew rank of 61.60 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.42, with the fund at 719.92 at the read. The console's high and low volatility point fields are not carried.
In this review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, an index close above the threshold, the flip level and the call side ceiling, with index gamma notional only marginally positive and the fund's still negative, describes an environment where the ceiling has been crossed and dealer hedging gives little damping; gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction. The setup in section 8 sells the 29,940 to 29,980 band, above the 29,841.34 conversion of the call side ceiling and beneath the 30,166.34 conversion of the 30,000 strike.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex and Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and the provider's overview showed the new session trading beneath Wednesday's settle at the time of capture, after the search-engine group's results. Australian import and export prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath the Pivot Point at 29,943.92, expected band roughly 29,550 to 29,950.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals are listed at 5:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias lower beneath the Pivot Point at 29,943.92, expected band roughly 29,500 to 29,950, with Pivot S1 at 29,709.83 the first pivot support beneath the Pivot Point, and the 29,841.34 and 29,756.34 conversions between the Pivot Point and it.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, RTH Open)
GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the European Central Bank decision is listed at 9:15 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of the overnight reaction to the results. Expected band roughly 29,430 to 30,040, with the top of the 29,940 to 29,980 setup band 60.00 points beneath the top of that range.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)
The seven-year note auction is listed at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 29,430 to 30,080, with the outer edges near two standard deviations support at 29,429.29, which sits 0.71 points beneath the bottom, and the 30,080.24 relative strength projection, 0.24 points above the top.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday after the 5:00 PM ET halt. Results from the online retailer and the processor maker are due after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, which lists them for the date only, and the Bank of Japan decision is listed at 11:30 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 29,550 to 29,950; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 29,430 to 30,080; High-range scenario: 29,206 to 30,368.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 29,440.17 and the 30,080.24 relative strength projection, with a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 29,943.92 that fails weighted slightly above a sustained recovery above Wednesday's settle. The composite reads "24% BUY" with negative direction still leading on both directional systems and the settle beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages, while three consecutive higher lows and the cash close above the call side ceiling, a model output, argue that buyers remain active.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 30,213.58 after the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays reports on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, which would open the published target price at 30,246.28 and one standard deviation resistance at 30,368.55. On the other side, a fall through two standard deviations support at 29,429.29 would bring Pivot S3 at 29,206.08 into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Wednesday's releases are complete. The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 PM ET and the press conference began at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both as the calendar lists it; the news feed carried a 10-2 vote to hold. Results from the search-engine group and the software maker were released after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
On Thursday, October 29, 2026 UK consumer credit is listed at 5:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with weekly jobless claims listed at 8:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European Central Bank decision is listed at 9:15 AM ET and the seven-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Results from a card network and a drugmaker are listed for Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, and results from the online retailer and the processor maker are due after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists them, for the date only.
Later in the cycle, the employment cost index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and a consumer-electronics maker's results are listed for Monday, November 2, 2026, as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the Nasdaq-100 on Thursday is the cash-session reaction to the search-engine group and the software maker alongside the 8:30 AM ET GDP and personal income and outlays release, with the online retailer after the close the next large-company test.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The composite reads "24% BUY" with the composite trend indicator on sell, negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages, while the reopened session traded beneath the settle after the search-engine group's results. A rebound into the 29,940 to 29,980 band, around the Pivot Point at 29,943.92 and beneath the 29,991.47 retracement, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 30,080.24 relative strength projection. Three consecutive higher lows show buyers remain active, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold after the results, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 29,940 to 29,980
Stop Loss: 30,080 (above the 30,037.12 retracement and beneath the 30,080.24 relative strength projection)
Target 1 (T1): 29,840 (beneath the 29,841.34 conversion of the call side ceiling)
Target 2 (T2): 29,720 (above Pivot S1 at 29,709.83)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 29,600 (beneath the 9-day average crossing price at 29,611.66 and above one standard deviation support at 29,590.45)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 30,213.58 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 29,980.
Macro override: A cash-session reversal of the after-hours decline in the search-engine group that the provider's commentary described, or GDP and inflation data read as easing pressure on rates, would support the index. In that scenario a move through the 30,080 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Wednesday's 30,178.00 high becomes the reference, 98.00 points beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 540.49 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Wednesday's close on October 28, 2026 for the Thursday, October 29, 2026 session. Wednesday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-10-28 row, and match the chart's completed daily bar. Wednesday's completed extremes are also the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 30,717.33 less Pivot S3 at 29,206.08, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 30,447.67 less Pivot S2 at 29,440.17, divided by two, both return 503.75, and three times the 29,943.92 Pivot Point less the settle gives 59,852.26, against 59,852.25 for the pair of 30,178.00 and 29,674.25, a difference within the published rounding. No intraday series was preserved for Wednesday, so no statement in this article places a Wednesday print at a time of day, and Wednesday's card is graded against the daily bar alone. Wednesday's session opened at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, and Thursday's session opened at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The open, high and low on the provider's overview page, 29,793.50, 29,794.25 and 29,686.25, belong to that new Thursday session and are not used as Wednesday's range; the provider's previous close of 29,979.50 is Wednesday's settle.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions with the partial Thursday row dropped, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at about 6:24 PM ET on Wednesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already blend the reopened session's quote into them. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-28 row reads 600,583 contracts with open interest not yet reported, and the 2026-10-27 row now reads 592,565 contracts and open interest of 267,148, where Wednesday's outlook carried 580,617 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-10-26 row reads open interest of 271,460. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Tuesday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is the review's conversion at the 166.34 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 160.56 on Tuesday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. The reading that the ceiling has been crossed and that dealer hedging gives little damping is the review's interpretation from the index model and that proxy, both model outputs, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction; the fund console, dated 2026-10-28, was read at about 6:26 PM ET. After-hours share moves for the large technology companies are the provider's commentary and are not verified independently. The volume and open-interest changes, the ten-session net change and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the index that rose 0.28 percent in cash on Wednesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
