On Tuesday December crude settled at 99.90, down 1.86 or 1.83 percent, after a 3.38 point session between 99.44 and 102.82. The settle finished at 13.6 percent of that range, 46 cents above the low. Both ends sat beneath Monday's. The 102.82 high was 31 cents under Monday's 103.13, and the 99.44 low 89 cents under Monday's 100.33. It was the largest one-day decline since the 2.19 point drop of 09/25. The settle was the lowest since the 99.47 of 10/22.
Tuesday's range reached our band, our stop and two of our three targets. The Tuesday card was a long from 100.40 to 100.70 with a 99.55 stop. The 99.44 low printed 96 cents beneath the band's bottom and 11 cents beneath that stop. The 102.82 high printed 1.27 above the 101.55 first target and 27 cents above the 102.55 second target. No intraday series was preserved, so the order of those prints cannot be shown. No fill and no result is asserted.
Brent fell by more in points and less in percent. Its December contract settled at 113.88, down 1.93 or 1.67 percent, per the news feed at 2:46 PM ET and the provider's daily record. Its premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.98 from 14.05. December now sits 1.84 above January's 98.06, against 2.27 on Monday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased for a second session.
Statements around a possible end to the war dominated the news flow. At 6:36 AM ET the news feed carried an item that Iran's supreme leader called for meeting the conditions to end the war. At 2:52 PM ET it carried an item that Iran's president had left Russia. At 3:49 PM ET it carried the President reiterating that oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so the review does not attribute the move to any one of them.
December crude settled at 99.90, down 1.86. That is 13.6 percent of a 99.44 to 102.82 range, a lower high and a lower low against Monday. The settle sits 63 cents above the 9-day average at 99.27 and 41 cents beneath the 5-day at 100.31. Resistance starts at the 100.28 stall level, then the 5-day, Monday's 100.33 low and the 100.43 target price, with the 100.71 projection and the 100.72 Pivot Point just above. Support starts at the 99.62 crossing price for the 9-day, then Tuesday's 99.44 low, the 99.30 stall level, the 9-day average and the 99.11 projection, with Pivot S1 at 98.62 beneath. The setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 98.70 to 99.00, stop 97.85, targets 99.85, 100.85 and an extended 101.85. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 90 cents under it, and the 99.85 first target sits 5 cents beneath the settle too. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday.
Tuesday's 99.44 low ran beneath the band and the stop
First, the grading. In Tuesday's outlook we set a long on the December contract from 100.40 to 100.70, stop 99.55, with targets at 101.55, 102.55 and an extended 103.55. A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 99.17 would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 100.40 would remove the edge. The card is graded on December's Tuesday bar.
Then December traded. Its bar, from the provider's settlement row, opened at 101.29 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen. That was 59 cents above the band's top and 47 cents beneath Monday's settle. It marked a high of 102.82 and a low of 99.44, and settled at 99.90. The range covered the whole band. It covered the stop too. The low printed 96 cents beneath 100.40 and 11 cents beneath 99.55.
On the target side, the 102.82 high cleared the 101.55 first target by 1.27 and the 102.55 second target by 27 cents. It stopped 73 cents short of 103.55, so the extended target did not print. The settle finished beneath the band, 50 cents under its bottom and 35 cents above the stop. No invalidation settle printed. The low held 27 cents above the 99.17 line. Whether the acceptance condition printed needs a 30-minute series, and none was preserved. The daily bar cannot show whether the band, the targets or the stop traded first. No fill and no result is asserted.
Our ranges mostly held. The low-range case of 100.30 to 103.10 gave way at the bottom by 86 cents and held at the top by 28. The most likely case of 99.20 to 104.30 held, with 24 cents to spare at the bottom and 1.48 at the top. The high-range case of 98.10 to 105.40 held by 1.34 and 2.58. One deviation, 99.17 to 104.35, held by 27 cents at the bottom and 1.53 at the top. Two deviations, 98.09 to 105.43, held by 1.35, and three deviations, 97.27 to 106.25, by 2.17. One average true range around Monday's settle, 98.08 to 105.44, held by 1.36. The session bands for Globex, London, the morning and the afternoon need an intraday series, so they are not graded.
The weighted path expected a hold between one standard deviation support at 99.17 and Pivot R2 at 104.54. That outer frame held on the daily bar, with 27 cents to spare at the bottom and 1.72 at the top. The dip it pictured was meant to hold above Monday's 100.33 low. The low printed 89 cents beneath it. The named alternative pictured a move beneath Pivot S1 at 100.35 toward 99.17 and Friday's 98.84 low. The low did go 91 cents beneath that pivot. It stopped 27 cents above 99.17 and 60 cents above 98.84. The card's macro override named a confirmed de-escalation step from the Tehran or Moscow meetings. The review classes the day's items as statements and polls carried by the news feed and the provider, and records no confirmed step.
The December band at 98.70 to 99.00, just above Pivot S1
The map moved down 1.70, the gap between the two midpoints. Every price here is the December contract. The new band, 98.70 to 99.00, sits just above Pivot S1 at 98.62, its bottom 8 cents over that pivot. The 99.11 projection at 70 percent sits 11 cents above its top. Friday's 98.84 low sits inside it. The settle sits 90 cents above the band's top and 1.20 above its bottom, and Tuesday's 99.44 low sits 44 cents above the top. The stop at 97.85 sits 77 cents beneath Pivot S1. It sits 28 cents above one standard deviation support at 97.57.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday. So the provider's overview already showed the Wednesday session, with an open of 100.17, a high of 100.26 and a low of 100.06. Those prints belong to the new session. The provider's previous close of 99.90 is Tuesday's settle. Quotes after the reopen are not settlements and do not form a preserved intraday series.
Tuesday ran wider than Monday and closed weak. Its 3.38 range was 0.93 times the 14-day average daily range and the widest since the 5.08 of 10/23. The settle beneath the 101.29 open leaves a body of 1.39. The upper shadow runs 1.53 above the open and the lower shadow 46 cents beneath the settle. Settlements over seven sessions read 98.54, 97.82, 97.15, 99.47, 103.27, 101.76 and 99.90. That is two lower settles after the gains of 10/22 and 10/23. Lows from 10/20 to 10/26 read 95.25, 96.26, 97.72, 98.84 and 100.33. Tuesday's 99.44 ended that run of rising lows. Friday's 103.92 remains the one-month, 13-week and 52-week high. The one-month low is 86.00 and the 13-week low 71.00. Over five sessions the contract is still up 2.08 from the 97.82 settle of 10/20.
Resistance starts 38 cents up, at the 100.28 crossover stall level. The 5-day average at 100.31 and Monday's 100.33 low sit within 5 cents of it. The published target price at 100.43 follows. The 100.71 stochastic projection and the Pivot Point at 100.72 sit 1 cent apart. Then a gap of 1.28 to Pivot R1 at 102.00. One standard deviation resistance at 102.23, the 102.28 stall level and Tuesday's 102.82 high follow it. Monday's 103.13 high, two standard deviations resistance at 103.20, the 103.56 top of one average true range, Friday's 103.92 high and three standard deviations resistance at 103.94 come next. Pivot R2 at 104.10 and Pivot R3 at 105.38 are the extended references.
Support starts 28 cents down, at the 99.62 crossing price for the 9-day. Tuesday's 99.44 low, the 99.30 MACD stall level, the 9-day average at 99.27 and the 99.11 projection follow, all within 51 cents. Friday's 98.84 low sits inside the band. Pivot S1 at 98.62 sits beneath it. Then a gap of 1.05 to one standard deviation support at 97.57. Pivot S2 at 97.34 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 follow; that retracement sits 2.83 beneath the settle. The extended references come next. Two standard deviations support at 96.60, the 96.50 crossing stall level and the 96.24 bottom of one average true range lead them. Three standard deviations support at 95.86, the 18-day crossing at 95.25 and Pivot S3 at 95.24 follow. Then the long tail. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96, the 20-day at 94.40 and the 92.85 retracement from the four-week low lie further down. So do the 40-day crossing at 92.14, the 91.34 retracement from the 13-week high and the 50-day at 89.77. Four more sit far beneath. They are the 86.00 one-month low, the 100-day at 82.28, the 200-day at 76.96 and the 71.00 13-week low. No four-hour series was captured, so swing structure rests on daily bars only.
One average now sits above price. The settle is 41 cents beneath the 5-day at 100.31 and 63 cents above the 9-day at 99.27. It sits 5.50 above the 20-day at 94.40 and 10.13 above the 50-day at 89.77. The gaps to the 100-day at 82.28 and the 200-day at 76.96 are 17.62 and 22.94. The 5-day rose 42 cents from 99.89. The 10/20 settle of 97.82 left the window and 99.90 replaced it. The 20-day rose 63 cents from 93.77 as the 09/29 settle of 87.25 left, and the 50-day rose 38 cents from 89.38. The stack stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 86.68, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.79 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 71.64. Wednesday's crossing prices are 99.62 for the 9-day, 95.25 for the 18-day and 92.14 for the 40-day.
Momentum readings eased. Relative strength reads 62.89 on the 9-day, 63.66 on the 14-day and 63.28 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 64.92 percent on the 9-day and 74.92 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 86.13 percent has slipped beneath %D at 87.34 percent, in the upper part of the range. Positive direction still leads on both windows. It reads 25.36 against 5.15 on the 9-day with the ADX at 58.12, and 25.38 against 6.36 on the 14-day with the ADX at 44.49. Historic volatility reads 31.37 percent and 28.10 percent. The composite multi-indicator read for Wednesday is 96 percent buy, against the prior session's 100 percent. Its signal strength is described as strong and its direction as average. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 48 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy and the medium and long groups 100 percent each. The trend indicator reads buy. These are the provider's published readings, read at about 6:21 PM ET on Tuesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's quote into them.
Ranges stay wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 3.66 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.65. The 9-day figures are 3.73 and 3.92 and the 20-day 3.55 and 3.62. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat. One average true range either side of the settle spans 96.24 to 103.56. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 97.57 to 102.23, 96.60 to 103.20 and 95.86 to 103.94. They describe settlement dispersion only. With the inventory report and the FOMC statement both on Wednesday, a release can carry the contract outside any of them. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80 and 3.38.
War statements, a 13.98 Brent premium and a 2.031 million barrel estimate
Statements filled the day. At 6:36 AM ET the news feed carried an item that Iran's supreme leader called for meeting the conditions to end the war. The provider's commentary described the statement as a call to pursue the conditions Iranian officials have set, made after Monday's Tehran meeting with Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials. At 2:46 PM ET the feed carried the Energy Secretary describing the war with Iran as unfortunate timing. At 2:52 PM ET it carried an item that Iran's president had left Russia. At 3:49 PM ET it carried the President reiterating that oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel held its election on Tuesday. The news feed carried exit polls from 4:00 PM ET onward showing the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot ahead with 52 seats against 50 for the bloc led by the prime minister and no majority for either, results attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. These are statements and polls carried by the news feed and the provider rather than events confirmed for this review, and none is treated as the cause of Tuesday's decline. They coincided with the session. No move is attributed to any one of them.
Producers stayed quiet. No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. At 3:13 PM ET a press report carried by the news feed said the United States and Russia are considering an oil venture off the Sakhalin coast after the war, as part of broader negotiations over Ukraine. It is a reported proposal, not a supply change measured for this review. At 3:01 PM ET the feed carried an industry article arguing that the diesel shortage is likely to persist into 2027 because supply remains limited by the Middle East conflict. It is commentary carried by the feed rather than data captured for this review.
Stocks came after the bell. At 4:46 PM ET the news feed carried an industry estimate of a 2.031 million barrel draw in crude stocks against a forecast build of 0.8 million and a prior draw of 4.93 million, a figure attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. The same item carried a gasoline build of 2.39 million barrels and a distillate build of 0.38 million barrels, and at 4:47 PM ET the feed carried a Cushing draw of 0.453 million barrels, all attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. These figures arrived after the 2:30 PM ET settle. They are not part of Tuesday's settlement. The calendar lists the next weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Its news-feed consensus is no change against a prior draw of 3.060 million barrels, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Products fell harder than crude. In the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.6172 dollars a gallon, down 2.49 percent from 4.7351, and December gasoline at 3.0638, down 2.18 percent from 3.1322. The heating oil margin is 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle. Against December WTI it stands at 94.02 dollars a barrel against 97.11 on Monday. The gasoline margin stands at 28.78 against 29.79. Both margins narrowed. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
The dollar firmed. The dollar index closed at 102.32 in the provider's daily record, up 0.36 from Monday's 101.96, and the provider's commentary described it as a one-and-a-half-week high. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The provider's commentary said markets discount a 7 percent chance of a rate increase at this week's meeting and a 91 percent chance at the December 8-9 meeting, figures attributed to that commentary and not verified independently. Data printed too. The durable goods report, which the calendar lists for 8:30 AM ET, printed 1.8 percent against a 1.9 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Consumer confidence printed 91.7 against an 81 forecast and the five-year note auction stopped at a 4.845 percent high yield, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Equities rose. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,722.60, up 0.60 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 1.29 percent, with the volatility index at 17.52 against 18.39. Metals firmed. Gold's December contract settled at 4,074.6, up 0.90 percent, and silver's December contract rose 0.32 percent. In the review's interpretation lower crude, firmer equities and a softer volatility index sit together as a modest easing of the energy risk premium.
Money managers had trimmed by October 20. The weekly positioning report dated that day puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and short positions at 127,226. That leaves a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the moves of the last five sessions. December open interest stood at 286,930 for Monday in the provider's record, down from 299,303 on Friday. Tuesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture. Tuesday's December volume was 255,150 contracts against a revised 266,519 on Monday. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Wednesday
The review's setup is a long on the December contract. It runs from 98.70 to 99.00. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 9-day to the 200-day, and positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. The composite holds at 96 percent buy. That is the trend case. In the review's reading, Tuesday's close near the low leaves room for a further dip. The band sits just above Pivot S1 at 98.62 and beneath the 99.11 projection at 70 percent. The stop at 97.85 sits 77 cents beneath Pivot S1 and above one standard deviation support at 97.57. The first target, 99.85, sits 5 cents beneath Tuesday's 99.90 settle. The second, 100.85, sits above the Pivot Point at 100.72 and beneath Pivot R1 at 102.00. The extended 101.85 sits beneath Pivot R1 and one standard deviation resistance at 102.23. In the review's reading, statements around an end to the war could deepen a pullback. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the trend averages hold, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 98.85 midpoint the risk to the stop is 1.00, 27.3 percent of the 14-day average true range of 3.66. The targets sit 1.00, 2.00 and 3.00 above the midpoint. Exact multiples, on paper. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 90 cents and its bottom 1.20 under it. The 99.85 first target also sits beneath the settle, by 5 cents, and 85 cents above the band's top. The 100.85 second target sits 95 cents above the settle and 13 cents above the Pivot Point. The extended 101.85 sits 15 cents beneath Pivot R1 and 38 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 98.60 to 101.20, the most likely 97.60 to 102.20 and the high-range case 96.20 to 103.60. Then by session. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday near the settle. The review's bias is neutral while the contract holds above Tuesday's 99.44 low, with an expected band of roughly 99.00 to 100.80 absent a Gulf headline. Australian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET and the New Zealand rate decision at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. London runs roughly 98.60 to 101.00 with a neutral bias. German consumer sentiment is listed at 3:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The review names the Pivot Point at 100.72 as the first resistance. Five levels sit between the settle and that pivot: 100.28, 100.31, 100.33, 100.43 and 100.71. It names Pivot S1 at 98.62 as the first meaningful support. Six levels sit between the settle and S1, from the 99.62 crossing price down to Friday's 98.84 low. The morning band runs roughly 97.60 to 101.80. The calendar lists the advance economic indicators report at 8:30 AM ET and the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET. The Pivot Point sits above the settle inside that band. The entry band sits beneath the settle, also inside it. The afternoon runs roughly 97.30 to 102.30. The review puts its outer edges near Pivot S2 at 97.34 and one standard deviation resistance at 102.23. Both sit just inside the band, 4 cents above its bottom and 7 cents beneath its top.
Wednesday is the heavy day. The calendar lists the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET, with a news-feed consensus of no change, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. It lists the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET and the press conference at 2:30 PM ET. So the statement lands half an hour before the 2:30 PM ET settle. Results from a search-advertising company are listed at 4:00 PM ET and from a software company at 4:05 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET after the 5:00 PM ET halt. On Thursday, October 29 the calendar lists GDP and the personal income and outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. On Friday, October 30 it lists the employment cost index at 8:30 AM ET. The seven-country producer meeting follows on Sunday, November 1, as the calendar lists it.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 97.57 and Pivot R1 at 102.00, with a further dip toward Pivot S1 at 98.62 that holds above 97.85 weighted slightly above a direct recovery through the Pivot Point at 100.72. In the review's reading the close near the low, the lower high and lower low, and the second easing of the front calendar spread argue for a test lower before any recovery. It names an alternative. A sustained move beneath one standard deviation support at 97.57 after the 10:30 AM ET inventory report would invalidate that reading and open Pivot S2 at 97.34 and the 97.07 retracement. The upside case is named too. A recovery above the Pivot Point at 100.72 would return the contract toward Pivot R1 at 102.00 without the dip the setup needs. In the review's judgment the first-order event for crude on Wednesday is the 10:30 AM ET weekly petroleum status report, with the 2:00 PM ET FOMC statement the second.
Tuesday's 99.44 low sits 44 cents above Wednesday's band, with the 99.11 projection in between.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Wednesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless November or January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 99.90 on Tuesday, down 1.86 or 1.83 percent from Monday's settle of 101.76, after trading between 102.82 and 99.44, a 3.38 point daily range. The settle finished at 13.6 percent of the range, close to the low, and the 3.38 point range was 0.93 times the published 14-day average daily range of 3.65 points. Tuesday's high sat 31 cents beneath Monday's 103.13 high and Tuesday's low sat 89 cents beneath Monday's 100.33 low, so the session printed a lower high and a lower low. The 1.86 point decline was the largest one-day decline since the 2.19 point decline of 09/25, and the 99.90 settle was the lowest since the 99.47 settle of 10/22.
Brent's December contract settled at 113.88, down 1.93 or 1.67 percent, per the news feed at 2:46 PM ET and the provider's daily record, so its premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.98 from 14.05 on Monday. The January WTI contract settled at 98.06 in the provider's daily record, which leaves December 1.84 points above January against 2.27 on Monday, a front-of-curve backwardation that eased for a second session. Over five sessions the contract is still up 2.08 points from the 97.82 settle of 10/20.
The day's news flow was dominated by statements around a possible end to the war rather than by new incidents. The news feed carried at 6:36 AM ET an item that Iran's supreme leader called for meeting the conditions to end the war, at 2:52 PM ET an item that Iran's president had left Russia, and at 3:49 PM ET the President reiterating that oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. These items coincided with the session; no intraday series was preserved for any path claim, so this review does not attribute the move to any one of them.
After the settle the news feed carried at 4:46 PM ET an industry estimate of a 2.031 million barrel crude draw against a forecast build of 0.8 million, a figure attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. The dollar index closed at 102.32 against 101.96 on Monday and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The published 14-day average true range is 3.66 points. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 98.70 to 99.00 band just above Pivot S1 at 98.62, stopped at 97.85 above one standard deviation support at 97.57, with objectives at 99.85, 100.85 and an extended 101.85.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Tuesday session opened at 101.29 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 47 cents beneath Monday's settle, marked a daily high of 102.82 and a daily low of 99.44, and settled at 99.90 at 2:30 PM ET. This review makes no claim about the order in which the high and the low printed; the daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, and that is the evidence used here.
The settle sits 46 cents above the low and 2.92 points beneath the high, so the session closed in the bottom seventh of its range. The body of the daily bar measures 1.39 points from the 101.29 open to the 99.90 settle, with an upper shadow of 1.53 points above the open and a lower shadow of 46 cents beneath the settle.
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, so the open, high and low shown on the provider's overview page, 100.17, 100.26 and 100.06, belong to the new Wednesday session and not to Tuesday's completed session. The provider's previous close of 99.90 is Tuesday's settle.
Tuesday's completed-session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar. Pivot R3 at 105.38 minus Pivot S3 at 95.24, divided by three, returns 3.38, and Pivot R2 at 104.10 minus Pivot S2 at 97.34, divided by two, returns the same 3.38. Three times the Pivot Point of 100.72 less the 99.90 settle gives a high plus low sum of 202.26, which the pair of 102.82 and 99.44 reproduces exactly, and that pair reproduces all seven published rungs.
Independent corroboration: the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar on the continuous symbol carry the same 101.29 open, 102.82 high, 99.44 low and 99.90 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Tuesday's 102.82 high sits 31 cents beneath Monday's 103.13, and the 99.44 low sits 89 cents beneath Monday's 100.33, so the session printed a lower high and a lower low. The 99.44 low ended the run of rising session lows: the lows over the five sessions from 10/20 to 10/26 read 95.25, 96.26, 97.72, 98.84 and 100.33 before Tuesday's 99.44.
Settlements over the last seven sessions read 98.54, 97.82, 97.15, 99.47, 103.27, 101.76 and 99.90, so Tuesday made two consecutive lower settles after the gains of 10/22 and 10/23. The provider's published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high is Friday's 103.92, the one-month low is 86.00 and the 13-week low is 71.00.
The forward curve remains in backwardation at the front: December settled 1.84 points above January's 98.06, against 2.27 points on Monday and 2.33 points on Friday.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions ran 1.81, 4.28, 4.05, 2.99, 6.12, 4.14, 2.45, 5.08, 2.80 and 3.38, so Tuesday's range was the widest since the 5.08 range of 10/23. The settlement changes over the same ten sessions read plus 0.73, plus 2.60, plus 2.52, minus 0.48, minus 0.72, minus 0.67, plus 2.32, plus 3.80, minus 1.51 and minus 1.86.
The retracement grid published for Wednesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07, 2.83 points beneath the settle, and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 94.96. Further beneath, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low sits at 92.85 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 91.34. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions through Tuesday; the partial Wednesday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The 5-day average stands at 100.31, the 9-day at 99.27, the 20-day at 94.40, the 50-day at 89.77, the 100-day at 82.28 and the 200-day at 76.96.
The 99.90 settle sits 41 cents beneath the 5-day average and 63 cents above the 9-day, 5.50 points above the 20-day, 10.13 points above the 50-day, 17.62 points above the 100-day and 22.94 points above the 200-day. The 5-day average rose 42 cents from Monday's 99.89, because the 10/20 settle of 97.82 left the window and was replaced by 99.90. The 20-day rose 63 cents from 93.77, because the 09/29 settle of 87.25 left that window, and the 50-day rose 38 cents from 89.38.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 94.40 against 89.77 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 86.68. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.79, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 71.64. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Wednesday: 99.62 for the 9-day, 95.25 for the 18-day and 92.14 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at about 6:21 PM ET on Tuesday after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the provider may already be blending the reopened session's quote into them; they are the provider's published readings, not this review's computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 62.89, the 14-day relative strength 63.66 and the 20-day relative strength 63.28.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 64.92 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 74.92 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 86.13 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 87.34 percent, so %K has slipped beneath %D in the upper part of the range.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 58.12 with the 9-day +DI at 25.36 and the 9-day -DI at 5.15; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 44.49 with the 14-day +DI at 25.38 and the 14-day -DI at 6.36, so positive direction still leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 31.37 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 28.10 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Wednesday session is "96% BUY", against the prior session's snapshot of "100% BUY", with signal strength described as "Strong" and direction as "Average". The snapshot history reads "100% BUY" a week ago and "48% BUY" a month ago. The short-horizon group averages "80% BUY" and the medium-horizon and long-horizon groups each average "100% BUY", and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 3.66 points and the 14-day average daily range at 3.65 points; the 9-day average true range is 3.73 with a 9-day average daily range of 3.92, and the 20-day average true range is 3.55 with a 20-day average daily range of 3.62. These were read after the reopen and carry the same caveat as the oscillators. Tuesday's 3.38 point range was 0.93 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 3.66 points from the 99.90 settle frames Wednesday between 96.24 and 103.56. The published standard-deviation bands are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 97.57 to 102.23, two spans 96.60 to 103.20 and three spans 95.86 to 103.94. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach, and with the weekly inventory report and the FOMC statement both on Wednesday a release can carry the contract outside any of them.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 99.90 settle, the first overhead reference is the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 100.28, followed by the published target price at 100.43, the 14-3 day raw stochastic projection at 80 percent, 100.71, and the Pivot Point at 100.72. Pivot R1 at 102.00, one standard deviation resistance at 102.23 and the 14-day %K stochastic stall level at 102.28 form the next band, with Tuesday's 102.82 high above. Two standard deviations resistance at 103.20, Friday's 103.92 high, which is also the published 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, three standard deviations resistance at 103.94 and Pivot R2 at 104.10 are the extended references, with Pivot R3 at 105.38 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 9-day average crossing price at 99.62, then Tuesday's 99.44 low, the MACD stall level at 99.30 and the 70 percent raw stochastic projection at 99.11. Pivot S1 at 98.62 is the first published pivot support, with one standard deviation support at 97.57, Pivot S2 at 97.34 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.07 beneath. Two standard deviations support at 96.60, the 9-day average crossing stall level at 96.50, three standard deviations support at 95.86, the 18-day average crossing price at 95.25 and Pivot S3 at 95.24 are the extended references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
No producer-group statement was carried on the feeds read for this review, so no quota or compliance change is asserted. The calendar lists the seven-country producer meeting deciding December production for Sunday, November 1, 2026. A press report carried by the news feed at 3:13 PM ET said the United States and Russia are considering an oil venture off the Sakhalin coast after the war, as part of broader negotiations over Ukraine; it is a reported proposal, not a supply change measured for this review.
The news feed carried an industry article at 3:01 PM ET arguing that the diesel shortage is likely to persist into 2027 because supply remains limited by the Middle East conflict. It is commentary carried by the feed rather than data captured for this review.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
After the settle, the news feed carried at 4:46 PM ET an industry estimate of a 2.031 million barrel draw in crude stocks against a forecast build of 0.8 million and a prior draw of 4.93 million, a gasoline build of 2.39 million barrels and a distillate build of 0.38 million barrels, and at 4:47 PM ET a Cushing draw of 0.453 million barrels, all attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. These figures arrived after the 2:30 PM ET settle, so they are not part of Tuesday's settlement.
The next official weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a news-feed consensus of no change against a prior draw of 3.060 million barrels, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
The news feed carried at 6:36 AM ET an item that Iran's supreme leader called for meeting the conditions to end the war, and the provider's commentary described the statement as a call to pursue the conditions Iranian officials have set, made after Monday's Tehran meeting with Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials. At 2:46 PM ET the feed carried the Energy Secretary describing the war with Iran as unfortunate timing, at 2:52 PM ET an item that Iran's president had left Russia, and at 3:49 PM ET the President reiterating that oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel held its election on Tuesday. The news feed carried exit polls from 4:00 PM ET onward showing the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot ahead with 52 seats against 50 for the bloc led by the prime minister and no majority for either, results attributed to the news feed and unconfirmed. These are statements and polls carried by the news feed and the provider rather than events confirmed for this review, and none is treated as the cause of Tuesday's decline.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
On the December contracts in the provider's daily record, December heating oil settled at 4.6172 dollars a gallon, down 2.49 percent from 4.7351 on Monday, and December gasoline at 3.0638, down 2.18 percent from 3.1322. Both products fell by more than crude in percentage terms.
Against the December WTI settle, the heating oil margin, 42 gallons times the heating oil settle less the WTI settle, stands at 94.02 dollars a barrel against 97.11 on Monday, and the gasoline margin at 28.78 against 29.79. Both margins narrowed. No national refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index closed at 102.32 in the provider's daily record, up 0.36 from Monday's 101.96, and the provider's commentary described it as a one-and-a-half-week high. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.99 percent against 4.98 percent. The provider's commentary said markets discount a 7 percent chance of a rate increase at this week's meeting and a 91 percent chance at the December 8-9 meeting, figures attributed to that commentary and not verified independently.
Gold's December contract settled at 4,074.6, up 0.90 percent, and silver's December contract rose 0.32 percent. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,722.60, up 0.60 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 1.29 percent, with the volatility index at 17.52 against 18.39. In this review's interpretation lower crude, firmer equities and a softer volatility index sit together as a modest easing of the energy risk premium.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The weekly positioning report dated October 20, shown on the provider's overview, puts managed-money long positions at 163,413 contracts and managed-money short positions at 127,226, for a net long of 36,187 against 40,574 a week earlier. Commercial long positions stand at 890,913 and commercial short positions at 1,007,071. The report predates the moves of the last five sessions.
Open interest on the December contract is shown at 286,930 for Monday in the provider's record, and Tuesday's open interest had not been reported at the time of capture; Tuesday's December volume was 255,150 contracts. Brent's December premium over December WTI narrowed to 13.98 from 14.05, and the December-January WTI spread eased to 1.84 from 2.27.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 near the settle. Australian consumer prices are listed at 8:30 PM ET and the New Zealand rate decision at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral while the contract holds above Tuesday's 99.44 low, expected band roughly 99.00 to 100.80 absent a Gulf headline.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)
German consumer sentiment is listed at 3:00 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bias neutral, expected band roughly 98.60 to 101.00, with the Pivot Point at 100.72 the first resistance and Pivot S1 at 98.62 the first meaningful support.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, US Open / Pit Session)
The advance economic indicators report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the weekly petroleum status report for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The inventory report is the first-order scheduled release for crude on Wednesday. Expected band roughly 97.60 to 101.80, with the Pivot Point at 100.72 above and the 98.70 to 99.00 entry band beneath.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Wednesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the press conference for 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, so the statement lands half an hour before the 2:30 PM ET settle. Expected band roughly 97.30 to 102.30, with the outer edges near Pivot S2 at 97.34 and one standard deviation resistance at 102.23.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday after the 5:00 PM ET halt. Results from a search-advertising company are listed at 4:00 PM ET and from a software company at 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and the GDP and personal income and outlays reports are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The forward window therefore carries the reaction to the FOMC press conference and to large-cap results.
6.6 Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 98.60 to 101.20
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 97.60 to 102.20
High-range scenario: 96.20 to 103.60
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between one standard deviation support at 97.57 and Pivot R1 at 102.00, with a further dip toward Pivot S1 at 98.62 that holds above 97.85 weighted slightly above a direct recovery through the Pivot Point at 100.72. The settle still sits above every settlement average from the 9-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on both directional systems and the composite reads "96% BUY", while the close near the low, the lower high and lower low, and the second easing of the front calendar spread argue for a test lower before any recovery.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a sustained move beneath one standard deviation support at 97.57 after the 10:30 AM ET inventory report on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, which would open Pivot S2 at 97.34 and the 97.07 retracement. On the other side, a recovery above the Pivot Point at 100.72 would return the contract toward Pivot R1 at 102.00 without the dip the setup needs.
7. Wednesday Economic Calendar
Tuesday's releases are complete. The durable goods report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and printed 1.8 percent against a 1.9 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Consumer confidence printed 91.7 against an 81 forecast and the five-year note auction stopped at a 4.845 percent high yield, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Crude settled at 2:30 PM ET.
On Wednesday, October 28, 2026 German consumer sentiment is listed at 3:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The advance economic indicators report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a news-feed consensus of no change, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET and the press conference for 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, both as the calendar lists them, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Results from a search-advertising company are listed at 4:00 PM ET and from a software company at 4:05 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
Later in the week, GDP and the personal income and outlays report are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, as the calendar lists it, the employment cost index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 30, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the seven-country producer meeting is listed for Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order event for crude on Wednesday is the 10:30 AM ET weekly petroleum status report, with the 2:00 PM ET FOMC statement the second.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The settle sits above every settlement average from the 9-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems and the composite holds at "96% BUY", while Tuesday's close near the low leaves room for a further dip. A dip into the 98.70 to 99.00 band, just above Pivot S1 at 98.62 and beneath the 70 percent raw stochastic projection at 99.11, offers a long with a defined risk point above one standard deviation support at 97.57. Statements around an end to the war can deepen a pullback, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips are bought while the trend averages hold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 98.70 to 99.00
Stop Loss: 97.85 (77 cents beneath Pivot S1 at 98.62 and above one standard deviation support at 97.57)
Target 1 (T1): 99.85 (beneath Tuesday's 99.90 settle)
Target 2 (T2): 100.85 (above the Pivot Point at 100.72 and beneath Pivot R1 at 102.00)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 101.85 (beneath Pivot R1 at 102.00 and one standard deviation resistance at 102.23)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath one standard deviation support at 97.57 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 98.70.
Macro override: An inventory report showing a large build, or a confirmed step toward ending the war, would remove part of the supply premium. In that scenario a move through the 97.85 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S2 at 97.34 becomes the reference, 51 cents beyond the stop and inside one 14-day average true range of 3.66 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Tuesday's close on October 27, 2026 for the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 session. December, which the chart's continuous symbol tracks, is the front month. Tuesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 105.38 less Pivot S3 at 95.24, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 104.10 less Pivot S2 at 97.34, divided by two, both return 3.38, and three times the 100.72 Pivot Point less the 99.90 settle gives 202.26, which the 102.82 high and 99.44 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Tuesday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. No intraday series was preserved for Tuesday, so no timed price path is asserted, and no price move is tied to a headline.
Tuesday's card was written on the December contract and is graded only on the provider's December settlement row for 10/27 (open 101.29, high 102.82, low 99.44, settle 99.90, volume 255,150). The daily bar fixes the open, the extremes and the settle, so the order of events within Tuesday cannot be shown, and the card's session bands are not graded.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions through Tuesday; the partial Wednesday row of the reopened Globex session was dropped before counting. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at about 6:21 PM ET after the reopen. Tuesday's volume and the open-interest figures equal the provider's dated rows. Monday's 10/26 row has been revised: December volume now reads 266,519 against the 246,789 cited in Tuesday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 286,930. Tuesday's open interest had not been reported. The weekly positioning report is dated October 20. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the weekly positioning report, the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar.
Tuesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Tuesday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,074.6 on Tuesday, up 0.90 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
