December crude fell 3.98 on Monday, or 4.38 percent, to settle at 86.85. That is the lowest settle since 09/04. The session ran from 85.02 to 91.42, a 6.40 point range and the widest since 11/04. The settle finished at 28.6 percent of it. The range was 1.38 times the 14-day average daily range of 4.63 points. Over five sessions the contract is down 9.61, or 9.96 percent, from the 96.46 settle of 11/02.
Monday's short card never came into play. The card, published at Friday's settle, was a short from 92.10 to 92.40 with a 92.90 stop. The session high was 91.42, in the 10:00 PM ET bar on Sunday. That print sat 68 cents beneath the band. The band never traded. No fill and no result are asserted.
The dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65, and Brent's January contract fell 5.85 percent. The provider's commentary attributed the decline to optimism about progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
Tuesday's setup is a short from 88.40 to 88.70, around the 88.50 cash-hours high, with an 89.30 stop. The whole band sits above the 86.85 settle. Target 1 at 87.80 and Target 2 at 87.05 sit above the settle too. Only Target 3, the extended 86.30, sits beneath it. The calendar lists the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET.
December crude settled at 86.85, down 3.98 or 4.38 percent, at 28.6 percent of an 85.02 to 91.42 range. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. Resistance starts at the Pivot Point at 87.76. Wednesday's 88.12 settle and the 88.48 to 88.50 pair sit above it, with the 89.01 projection higher. Support starts at the 86.38 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, then the 86.19 low of the 9:00 AM ET bar and the 86.13 retracement. The setup is a short from 88.40 to 88.70, with an 89.30 stop and targets at 87.80, 87.05 and an extended 86.30. Target 1 and Target 2 sit above the settle; only Target 3 sits beneath it.
The Nov 9 short band never traded, and Monday’s 91.42 high stopped 68 cents beneath it
First, the grading. In Monday's outlook we set a short on the December contract from 92.10 to 92.40, stop 92.90, with targets at 91.60, 90.95 and an extended 90.30. The card was published at Friday's settle, so it covers Monday's whole session from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. A settle above the 93.66 retracement would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes above 92.40 would remove the edge. The order of events comes from the 30-minute bars.
The band never traded. The session opened at 90.83, unchanged from Friday's settle and 1.27 beneath the band's 92.10 bottom. The bars climbed to 91.42 in the 10:00 PM ET bar on Sunday. That was the session high. It sat 68 cents beneath the band, 18 cents beneath the 91.60 Target 1 and 1.48 beneath the stop. The highest close was 91.33, in the 11:00 PM ET bar.
So the card never came into play. Its targets do not grade without an entry. The decline came from beneath the band, and the 2:30 PM ET settle came at 86.85. That sat 5.25 beneath the band's bottom and 6.81 beneath the 93.66 line. No fill and no result are asserted.
The session bands broke to the downside. The night band of 89.60 to 92.30 met bars from 89.34 to 91.42, 26 cents through its bottom. London traded 87.11 to 90.57 against 89.40 to 92.20, 2.29 through its bottom. The morning traded 86.19 to 88.50, wholly beneath its 89.30 to 92.50 band. The afternoon traded 86.63 to 87.91, wholly beneath 89.30 to 92.40.
The scenario cases missed on the low side. The low-range case of 89.80 to 92.20 broke by 4.78 at its bottom. The most likely case, 89.10 to 92.90, broke by 4.08. The high-range case, 87.90 to 94.30, broke by 2.88. One average true range around Friday's settle, 86.40 to 95.26, broke by 1.38. The two deviation band's 85.61 bottom gave way by 59 cents. The three deviation band held. Its 84.44 bottom sat 58 cents beneath the low.
The weighted path had the contract holding between Pivot S1 at 89.09 and Pivot R1 at 92.55, with a test of the 92.23 to 92.55 band. The 91.42 high stopped 1.13 beneath R1 and 81 cents beneath the start of that band. The other side named weekend headlines opening the contract beneath Pivot S1. The open came at 90.83, 1.74 above S1. The break came later. The 6:00 AM ET bar traded to 87.54, through S1. Pivot S2 at 87.35 gave way in the 7:30 AM ET bar, at 87.11. The rebound the setup needed did not come.
The macro override named weekend headline risk in either direction. The settlement series does not tie Monday's 3.98 decline to any single headline.
A 4.38 percent decline to 86.85 on a 6.40 point range, the widest since 11/04
The high came first. From the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 89.34 and 91.42. They closed that window at 90.12. The 91.42 high printed in the 10:00 PM ET bar on Sunday.
The decline ran through the European morning. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 86.19 and 90.57. The 6:00 AM ET bar fell 1.08, from 89.45 to 88.37. That was the largest decline of any 30-minute bar. The 8:30 AM ET bar fell 78 cents, from 87.65 to 86.87. The 9:00 AM ET bar made the 86.19 low of that window and closed at 86.86.
The cash hours opened with a rebound. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 65 cents to 87.51, the largest gain of any bar. The 10:30 AM ET bar reached 88.50 and closed at 88.28. That 88.50 print is the cash-hours high. The 2:00 PM ET bar fell 72 cents to 86.90, and the settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 86.85.
The low came after the settle. The 2:30 PM ET bar traded down to 85.02 and closed at 85.94. At 2:38 PM ET, inside that bar, the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy; the low and the report coincided, and the report is unconfirmed. The 3:00 PM ET bar rose 61 cents to 86.55. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 86.38, 47 cents beneath the settle; that is a post-settlement quote.
Monday printed a lower high and a lower low. Its 91.42 high sat 1.11 beneath Friday's 92.53. Its 85.02 low sat 4.05 beneath Friday's 89.07. Settlements over six sessions read 96.46, 96.09, 88.12, 90.52, 90.83 and 86.85. The 3.98 decline gave back more than the 2.71 points recovered on Thursday and Friday. The settle sits 1.27 beneath Wednesday's 88.12.
Ranges widened again. Ten sessions of daily ranges from 10/27 read 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23, 10.02, 4.67, 3.46 and 6.40. Monday's 6.40 was the widest since the 10.02 of 11/04. No 30-minute bar moved more than 1.08 from open to close. The decline came as a sequence of bars.
The settle is the lowest since the 85.46 settle of 09/04/26. The 85.02 low is the lowest since the 83.15 low of that day. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high. It lists Monday's 85.02 as the one-month low and 74.39 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 2.84 beneath the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range. It sits 72 cents above the 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low sits at 86.08.
Resistance starts 91 cents up, at the Pivot Point at 87.76. Wednesday's 88.12 settle sits above it. The 88.48 stall of the 14-day %K and the 88.50 cash-hours high form the next pair, with the 89.01 projection above. The 89.69 midpoint, one standard deviation resistance at 90.40, the 5-day average at 90.48 and Pivot R1 at 90.51 follow. Friday's 90.83 settle, Monday's 91.42 high and the 50-day at 92.36 sit beyond. The review's list leaves out 88.12 and 90.83.
Support starts 47 cents down, at the 86.38 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar. The 86.19 low of the 9:00 AM ET bar comes next. The 86.13 and 86.08 retracements and the 85.84 target price lead into the 85.46 settle of 09/04 and Monday's 85.02 low. The 84.26 crossing price and Pivot S1 at 84.11 form the next band. The 100-day at 83.85, one standard deviation support at 83.30 and the 83.15 low of 09/04 follow. Pivot S2 at 81.36 is the deeper reference. The review's list leaves out 86.19, 85.46 and the 100-day.
The settle sits beneath four averages. It is 3.63 beneath the 5-day at 90.48, 8.46 beneath the 9-day at 95.31 and 10.06 beneath the 20-day at 96.91. It is 5.51 beneath the 50-day at 92.36. That is the fourth settle in a row beneath the 50-day and the sixth beneath the 20-day. It sits 3.00 above the 100-day at 83.85 and 8.26 above the 200-day at 78.59. The 5-day fell 1.92 from Friday's 92.40 as the 96.46 settle of 11/02 left its window.
The stack beneath stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 89.33. The 50 older ones in the 100-day window averaged 75.35, and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 73.33. The grid gives 84.26 as the price at which the 9-day and 40-day averages would cross.
Momentum stayed weak. Relative strength reads 31.76 on the 9-day, 38.00 on the 14-day and 42.50 on the 20-day. The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastics all read 9.16 percent. The 14-day %K at 17.69 percent sits 0.12 above %D at 17.57 percent. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. On the 9-day it reads 32.81 against 11.90, with the ADX at 47.31. On the 14-day it reads 27.36 against 14.81, with the ADX at 37.62. Historic volatility reads 63.99 percent and 58.14 percent.
The composite read for the Monday session is 24 percent sell, unchanged from a session earlier. It read 8 percent buy a week ago and 80 percent buy a month ago. Its signal strength is described as weak and its direction as strengthening. The short horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium 25 percent sell and the long 67 percent buy. The trend composite reads sell. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:18 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen. They may include the live price of the reopened session.
Average ranges stay wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 4.57 points, about 5.3 percent of the settle. The 14-day average daily range stands at 4.63. The 9-day figures are 4.94 and 5.22 and the 20-day 4.27 and 4.36. One average true range either side of the settle spans 82.28 to 91.42. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 83.30 to 90.40, 81.83 to 91.87 and 80.71 to 92.99. They describe dispersion only.
Brent fell 5.85 percent, the dollar eased 0.64 percent, and both margins narrowed
Monday brought no weekly inventory figures. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, as the calendar lists it. The next weekly government report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, as the calendar lists it. The Veterans Day holiday moved it. The producer group's monthly report is listed for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. At 4:10 PM ET the news feed carried Canadian tariff relief measures that include non-steel goods used in oil and gas extraction.
Products split around crude. Brent's January contract settled at 92.57, down 5.75 dollars or 5.85 percent, per the settlement record. December heating oil settled at 4.2148 dollars a gallon, down 2.70 percent. December gasoline settled at 2.6509, down 4.53 percent, against crude's 4.38 percent. Heating oil fell less than crude; gasoline fell more. The heating oil margin over December WTI narrowed to 90.17 dollars a barrel from 91.10. The gasoline margin narrowed to 24.49 from 25.79.
The dollar eased. Its daily record closed at 101.65, down 0.64 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up one basis point. Gold's December contract rose 0.97 percent and silver's 1.45 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 2.35 percent, the Nasdaq-100 3.40 percent and the semiconductor index 6.85 percent. The volatility index closed at 19.92. Crude fell while the dollar eased and equities rose; these moves coincided, and no series in the review separates their effects.
The provider's commentary attributed the decline to optimism about progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The settlement series does not establish that any single item caused a particular move. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Monday's US data was light. Wholesale trade data was released at 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The provider's commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent. At 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar.
Volume rose. December volume was 310,382 contracts on Monday against 288,175 on Friday. Friday's open interest, in the revised 11/06 row, stood at 198,227, against 212,960 on Thursday. Monday's open interest has not yet been reported. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.16 from 1.24. Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 6.88 from 8.73, as Brent fell 5.85 percent against 4.35 percent for January WTI. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The latest weekly positioning report covers the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The provider's overview listed managed money at 147,382 long, down 10,051, against 125,654 short, down 651. These figures are as listed and were not recomputed.
The trade map for Tuesday
The review's setup for Tuesday is a short on the December contract from 88.40 to 88.70, as published at the settle. The contract settled beneath the 50-day average for a fourth session after the widest range since 11/04. The composite reads 24 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. Monday's 10:30 AM ET rebound stopped at 88.50. In the review's reading, a rebound into the band, around the 88.50 cash-hours high and the 88.48 stall of the 14-day %K and beneath the 89.01 projection, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range. The review notes that a stretched decline and renewed headline risk on diplomacy, in either direction, can carry price through the band. It calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the cash-hours high are sold, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 88.55 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.75, 16.4 percent of the 14-day average true range of 4.57. The targets sit 0.75, 1.50 and 2.25 beneath the midpoint. That is exactly 1, 2 and 3 times the risk. The band's bottom sits 1.55 over the settle and its top 1.85 over it. Its top sits 31 cents beneath the 89.01 projection. Target 1 sits 95 cents above the settle and 4 cents above the Pivot Point. Target 2 sits 20 cents above the settle. Target 3 sits 55 cents beneath it. The stop sits 29 cents above the projection and 39 cents beneath the 89.69 midpoint.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 85.70 to 88.00, the most likely 84.90 to 88.70 and the high-range case 83.30 to 90.40. The most likely case tops out at the 88.70 band top. For the night session from 6:00 PM ET on Monday the review's bias is neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 87.76. Its expected band runs roughly 85.60 to 87.80, its top 60 cents beneath the setup band. The provider's overview showed an 86.43 open for the reopened session, beneath the settle.
London starts at 3:00 AM ET and runs roughly 85.40 to 87.90. Its bias is neutral between Monday's 85.02 low and the Pivot Point at 87.76. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Remarks by a UK central bank official at 7:30 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
The calendar lists the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, with real earnings. The news-feed calendar lists a forecast of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index against 0.6 percent previously. For the monthly core it lists 0.2 percent against 0.3 percent. In the review's judgment this is the first-order event for crude on Tuesday, through the dollar, alongside headline risk on diplomacy. The morning band runs roughly 85.20 to 88.70. Its top matches the setup band's top.
The afternoon runs roughly 85.30 to 88.50, its top 10 cents above the setup band's bottom. The calendar lists the Short-Term Energy Outlook at 12:00 PM ET. A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, as are remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 10:50 AM ET and 1:30 PM ET. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET and 6:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. The settlement comes at 2:30 PM ET. It fixes the reference ahead of the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, when Globex keeps normal hours.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Monday's 85.02 low and the 88.50 cash-hours high. A rebound toward the 88.40 to 88.70 band that stalls beneath the 89.01 projection is weighted above a settle through it. That band tops out 20 cents above the 88.50 bound. The composite reads 24 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both systems, and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages. In the review's interpretation, that favours selling a rebound over chasing a further decline from the reopen.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 90.51. That could bring Monday's 91.42 high and the 50-day average at 92.36 into play. On the other side, headline risk on diplomacy could carry the contract through Monday's 85.02 low toward Pivot S1 at 84.11. That path skips the rebound the setup needs.
The settle sits 1.55 beneath the band. The setup needs a rebound first.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 86.85 on Monday, down 3.98 or 4.38 percent from Friday's settle of 90.83, after trading between 91.42 and 85.02, a 6.40 point daily range. The settle finished at 28.6 percent of the range, and the range was 1.38 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 4.63 points. Monday printed a lower high, 1.11 beneath Friday's 92.53, and a lower low, 4.05 beneath Friday's 89.07. The settle is the lowest since 09/04/26, when the contract settled at 85.46, and the 6.40 point range is the widest since the 10.02 point range of 11/04/26. Over five sessions the contract is down 9.61 from the 96.46 settle of 11/02/26, a decline of 9.96 percent.
The high came on Sunday evening and the decline ran through the European morning and the US afternoon. The contract reached 91.42 in the 10:00 PM ET bar on Sunday, traded down to 86.19 in the 9:00 AM ET bar on Monday, rebounded to 88.50 in the 10:30 AM ET bar and then eased into the 2:30 PM ET settlement. The 85.02 low printed in the 2:30 PM ET bar, after the settle was fixed. At 2:38 PM ET, inside that bar, the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy; the low and the report coincided, and the report is unconfirmed.
The provider's commentary attributed the decline to optimism about progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. Brent's January contract settled at 92.57, down 5.75 dollars or 5.85 percent, per the settlement record, heating oil's December contract fell 2.70 percent and gasoline's December contract 4.53 percent. The dollar index closed at 101.65, down 0.64 percent, gold's December contract rose 0.97 percent and the S&P 500 cash index rose 2.35 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening is "24% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Strengthening", unchanged in percentage from "24% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day settlement averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 88.40 to 88.70 band, around the 88.50 cash-hours high and the 88.48 stall of the 14-day %K line, stopped at 89.30, with objectives at 87.80, 87.05 and an extended 86.30. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the Short-Term Energy Outlook for 12:00 PM ET that day, both as the calendar lists them.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 90.83 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, unchanged from Friday's settle, and the 30-minute series on the continuous symbol places the high of 91.42 in the 10:00 PM ET bar on Sunday and the low of 85.02 in the 2:30 PM ET bar on Monday. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 89.34 and 91.42 and closed that window at 90.12.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 86.19 and 90.57. The 6:00 AM ET bar fell 1.08, from 89.45 to 88.37, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session, and the 8:30 AM ET bar fell 0.78, from 87.65 to 86.87; the 9:00 AM ET bar made the 86.19 low of that window and closed it at 86.86.
Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 85.02 and 88.50. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 0.65 to 87.51, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session, and the 10:30 AM ET bar reached 88.50 and closed at 88.28. The 2:00 PM ET bar fell 0.72 to 86.90 and the settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 86.85. The 2:30 PM ET bar then traded down to 85.02 and closed at 85.94, the 3:00 PM ET bar rose 0.61 to 86.55, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 86.38, 0.47 beneath the settle.
The provider's overview page, read at 6:18 PM ET, is titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and its open of 86.43, high of 86.74 and low of 86.19 belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, not to Monday's completed session; its previous close field reads 86.85. Monday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 96.91 minus Pivot S3 at 77.71, divided by three, returns 6.40, and Pivot R2 at 94.16 minus Pivot S2 at 81.36, divided by two, returns the same 6.40. Three times the Pivot Point of 87.76 less the 86.85 settle gives a high plus low sum of 176.43, which with the 6.40 range solves to a high of 91.415 and a low of 85.015, or 91.42 and 85.02 at the published two-decimal rounding; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 90.83 open, 91.42 high, 85.02 low and 86.85 settle, and by the provider's one-month low of 85.02.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a lower high and a lower low against Friday and settled 3.98 lower, ending a run of two higher settles. Settlements over the last six sessions read 96.46, 96.09, 88.12, 90.52, 90.83 and 86.85, so Monday gave back more than the 2.71 points recovered on Thursday and Friday and settled 1.27 beneath Wednesday's 88.12. Over five sessions the contract is down 9.61 from the 96.46 settle of 11/02, which the provider also publishes as a 9.96 percent five-day change.
The settle is the lowest since the 85.46 settle of 09/04/26, and the 85.02 low is the lowest since the 83.15 low of 09/04/26. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 85.02 as the one-month low and 74.39 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 2.84 beneath the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range, published as the 50 percent retracement from the 13-week high and low, and 0.72 above the 86.13 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/27, ran 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23, 10.02, 4.67, 3.46 and 6.40, so the range expanded on Monday after two narrower sessions, and Monday's 6.40 points were the widest since 11/04/26. In the 30-minute series no bar moved more than 1.08 from open to close; the decline came as a sequence of bars rather than a single move.
The swing sequence since the 104.99 high of 10/30 shows lower highs at 102.75, 98.82, 97.15 and 91.32 through Thursday, a higher high at 92.53 on Friday and a lower high at 91.42 on Monday. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 86.08, the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 86.13 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 89.69.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/29/25 through Monday; the partial row dated Tuesday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 90.48, the 9-day at 95.31, the 20-day at 96.91, the 50-day at 92.36, the 100-day at 83.85 and the 200-day at 78.59.
The 86.85 settle sits 3.63 beneath the 5-day average, 8.46 beneath the 9-day, 10.06 beneath the 20-day and 5.51 beneath the 50-day, and 3.00 above the 100-day and 8.26 above the 200-day. It is the fourth consecutive settle beneath the 50-day average and the sixth consecutive settle beneath the 20-day. The 5-day average fell from Friday's 92.40 as Monday's settle replaced the 11/02 settle of 96.46.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 89.33. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 75.35, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 73.33. The projection grid gives 84.26 as the price at which the 9-day and 40-day averages would cross.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:18 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not this review's computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 31.76, the 14-day relative strength 38.00 and the 20-day relative strength 42.50.
The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastic all read 9.16 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 17.69 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 17.57 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 47.31 with the 9-day +DI at 11.90 and the 9-day -DI at 32.81, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 37.62 with the 14-day +DI at 14.81 and the 14-day -DI at 27.36, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 63.99 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 58.14 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening, on a page titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, is "24% SELL", with signal strength "Weak" and direction "Strengthening". The snapshot history reads "24% SELL" for the prior session, "8% BUY" a week ago and "80% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "60% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.57 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.63 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.94 with a 9-day average daily range of 5.22, and the 20-day average true range is 4.27 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.36. Monday's 6.40 point range was 1.38 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.57 from the 86.85 settle frames Tuesday between 82.28 and 91.42. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 83.30 to 90.40 at one deviation, 81.83 to 91.87 at two and 80.71 to 92.99 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the inflation data at 8:30 AM ET adds event risk that a single-session band does not reflect.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 86.85 settle, the first reference is the Pivot Point at 87.76. The 88.50 high of the cash hours, with the 88.48 stall of the 14-day %K line beside it, forms the next band, and the 89.01 projection for the 20 percent raw stochastic sits above it. The 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range, one standard deviation resistance at 90.40, the 5-day average at 90.48 and Pivot R1 at 90.51 follow, with Monday's 91.42 high and the 50-day average at 92.36 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 86.38 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, the last print of the completed session. The 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low, the 86.08 retracement from the 13-week low and the 85.84 published target price lead into Monday's 85.02 low, now the one-month low. The 84.26 crossing of the 9-day and 40-day averages and Pivot S1 at 84.11 form the next band, with one standard deviation support at 83.30, the 83.15 low of 09/04/26 and Pivot S2 at 81.36 as the deeper references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Supply Policy
The feeds for Monday carry no supply-policy decisions. The producer group's monthly report is listed for 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. At 4:10 PM ET the news feed carried Canadian tariff relief measures that include non-steel goods used in oil and gas extraction.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The calendars carry no weekly inventory release for Monday. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the weekly government petroleum report moves to 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 because of the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Diplomacy and Supply Reports
At 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy; that is a sourced report, unconfirmed. The provider's commentary attributed the decline to optimism about progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. These are a report and commentary carried by the feeds, and the settlement series does not establish that any single item caused a particular move. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
Heating oil's December contract settled at 4.2148 dollars a gallon, down 2.70 percent, and gasoline's December contract at 2.6509, down 4.53 percent, against crude's 4.38 percent decline. Measured on the December contracts, the heating oil margin over December WTI narrowed to 90.17 dollars a barrel from 91.10, and the gasoline margin narrowed to 24.49 from 25.79.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.65, down 0.64 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up one basis point on the session. Gold's December contract rose 0.97 percent and silver's December contract 1.45 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 2.35 percent, the Nasdaq-100 3.40 percent and the semiconductor index 6.85 percent, and the volatility index closed at 19.92. At 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. Crude fell while the dollar eased and equities rose; these moves coincided, and no series in this review separates their effects.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The latest weekly positioning report, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 147,382 long, down 10,051, against 125,654 short, down 651, as listed on the provider's overview and not recomputed. Monday's December volume was 310,382 contracts against 288,175 on Friday, per the settlement record. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.16 from 1.24, and Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 6.88 from 8.73 as Brent's January contract fell 5.85 percent against 4.35 percent for January WTI.
5. Options Positioning Coverage
This review covers crude without a dealer-positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins, the volume record and the weekly positioning figures in section 4.6.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday with the overview showing an 86.43 open, beneath the 86.85 settle. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists them, outside this window, and headline risk on diplomacy remains in view. Bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point at 87.76, expected band roughly 85.60 to 87.80.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday are scheduled, as the calendar lists them, and remarks by a UK central bank official at 7:30 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral between Monday's 85.02 low and the Pivot Point at 87.76, expected band roughly 85.40 to 87.90.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, US Open / Pit Session)
The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar listing a forecast of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline against 0.6 percent previously; the dollar's response carries into this window. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 10:50 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 85.20 to 88.70, with the 88.40 to 88.70 setup band at the top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Tuesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and a ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The settlement at 2:30 PM ET fixes the reference ahead of the Veterans Day holiday. Expected band roughly 85.30 to 88.50.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
The Tuesday evening session carries into the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, when Globex keeps normal hours per the calendar's exchange notice, and into the producer group's monthly report listed for 8:00 AM ET that day by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday are scheduled, as the calendar lists them.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 85.70 to 88.00
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 84.90 to 88.70
High-range scenario: 83.30 to 90.40
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Monday's 85.02 low and the 88.50 cash-hours high, with a rebound toward the 88.40 to 88.70 band that stalls beneath the 89.01 projection weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "24% SELL" with direction "Strengthening", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages after the widest range since 11/04/26, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a rebound over chasing a further decline from the reopen.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R1 at 90.51, which could bring Monday's 91.42 high and the 50-day average at 92.36 into play. On the other side, headline risk on diplomacy could carry the contract through Monday's 85.02 low toward Pivot S1 at 84.11 without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. Wholesale trade data was released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the provider's commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent. The news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent at 3:15 PM ET, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. December WTI settled at 2:30 PM ET.
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists them. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, together with real earnings. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET. The news-feed calendar lists forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index, against 0.6 percent previously, and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index, against 0.3 percent previously. A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET and remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 10:50 AM ET and 1:30 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday with Globex on normal hours, the weekly petroleum report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, all as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order event for crude on Tuesday is the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, through the dollar, alongside headline risk on diplomacy.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 50-day average for a fourth session after the widest range since 11/04/26, the composite reads "24% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while the 10:30 AM ET rebound stopped at 88.50. A rebound into the 88.40 to 88.70 band, around the 88.50 cash-hours high and the 88.48 stall of the 14-day %K line and beneath the 89.01 projection, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range. A stretched decline and renewed headline risk on diplomacy, in either direction, can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the cash-hours high are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 88.40 to 88.70
Stop Loss: 89.30 (above the 89.01 projection, beneath the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range)
Target 1 (T1): 87.80 (above the Pivot Point at 87.76)
Target 2 (T2): 87.05 (above the 86.85 settle)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 86.30 (beneath the 86.38 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, above the 86.13 retracement)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R1 at 90.51 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 88.70; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: Headline risk on diplomacy, or a firmer dollar after the inflation data, could lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 89.30 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 89.69 midpoint of the 13-week range becomes the reference, 0.39 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 4.57.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Monday's close on November 9, 2026 for the Tuesday, November 10, 2026 session, which opened at the Monday 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen. December is the contract the chart's continuous symbol tracks. Monday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 96.91 less Pivot S3 at 77.71, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 94.16 less Pivot S2 at 81.36, divided by two, both return 6.40. Three times the 87.76 Pivot Point less the 86.85 settle gives 176.43, which solves to the 91.42 high and the 85.02 low. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Monday bar carry the same 90.83 open, extremes and settle.
Monday's card was written on the December contract and published at Friday's settle. It is graded across Monday's whole session, on the 30-minute bars of the continuous symbol: 46 bars from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 4:30 PM ET bar, labelled in Eastern standard time. The provider's December settlement row for 11/09 reads open 90.83, high 91.42, low 85.02, settle 86.85, volume 310,382. No price move is tied to a headline by this outlook.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions from 10/29/25 through Monday; the partial row opened by the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen is excluded. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:18 PM ET on Monday after the reopen. Friday's 11/06 row has been revised: December volume now reads 288,175 against the 253,859 cited in Monday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 198,227. Monday's open interest had not yet been reported. The review prints the semiconductor index change as 6.86 percent; the dated closes of 9,390.25 and 10,033.93 give 6.85 percent, which this outlook carries.
No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins, the volume record and the weekly positioning figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar. Clock times are Eastern standard time, as the review and the calendar state them.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Monday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,114.5 on Monday, up 0.97 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
