At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, a 30-minute bar in December gold fell to 4,049.6. That went through the 4,055 stop on the long we had set for Friday. The 4,070 to 4,080 band had traded two and a half hours earlier, in the 8:00 PM ET bar. No bar between them reached the 4,095 first target. The contract went on to a 4,035.1 low in the 8:30 AM ET bar and settled at 4,074.9, down 38.6 points, or 0.94 percent.
Friday printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday and ended a run of two higher settles. The dollar index rose 0.74 percent to 102.30. The settle sits back beneath the 20-day average, one session after the first settle above it since 09/03/26. Monday's primary setup turns short, from 4,105 to 4,115, just beneath Pivot R1 at 4,115.7. It sits 30.1 to 40.1 points above the settle. It needs a rebound first.
December gold settled at 4,074.9 on Friday, down 38.6 or 0.94 percent, after a 4,035.1 to 4,116.2 range, at 49.1 percent of that range. It sits above the 5-day and 9-day averages. It sits beneath the 20-day at 4,080.7 and every longer average. The primary setup for Monday is a short from 4,105 to 4,115, stop 4,135, with targets at 4,085, 4,060 and an extended 4,035. The band and Target 1 sit above the settle; Target 2 and Target 3 sit beneath it. The composite reads "32% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest". Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, with weekend headline risk.
Friday traded the 4,070 to 4,080 long band, then its stop
In Friday’s outlook we set a long from 4,070 to 4,080 at Thursday's settle, with a stop at 4,055 and targets at 4,095, 4,115 and an extended 4,135. The card covered Friday's whole session. Friday's bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-06 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 4,098.5 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen. It marked a high of 4,116.2 and a low of 4,035.1 and settled at 4,074.9.
The targets printed first, without the band. The 6:00 PM ET bar traded through 4,095, and its 4,080.4 low held 0.4 above the band top. The 7:00 PM ET bar made the 4,116.2 high, through the 4,115 second target. None of that counts for the card. The 4,135 third target never traded. The high stayed 18.8 beneath it.
Then the band traded. The 8:00 PM ET bar fell 27.9, from 4,101.1 to 4,073.2, and its 4,073.1 low sat 6.9 beneath the band top. Thirty-minute bars do not show whether that bar's 4,106.7 high came before or after its low. No later bar reached 4,095. The 8:30 PM ET bar went through the 4,070 band bottom, to 4,065.3.
The stop followed. The 10:30 PM ET bar fell to 4,049.6, 5.4 beneath the 4,055 stop. The 10:00 PM ET and 10:30 PM ET bars closed at 4,059.5 and 4,054.8, the first two consecutive closes beneath 4,070, which is the card's acceptance test. We grade the card as written: the band traded, then the stop, before any target. No fill and no result is asserted.
The settle test never came into play. Friday settled at 4,074.9, 14.1 above the 4,060.8 invalidation line and 4.9 above the band bottom. The 4,035.1 low went 19.9 beneath the stop. It held 11.8 above Pivot S2 at 4,023.3, the reference our macro override named.
The override came late. It named a stronger employment report that lifts the dollar and yields. Payrolls rose 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, per the news-feed calendar. The dollar index rose 0.74 percent and the ten-year yield 3 basis points. The stop had traded at 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, ten hours before the 8:30 AM ET report. The moves coincided with gold's decline, and no series here separates their effects.
The path call missed. Our Friday outlook held the contract between Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and Pivot R1 at 4,157.2. It weighted a pullback into the band that held above Thursday's 4,067.0 low. The low went 31.9 beneath 4,067.0 and 33.3 beneath that Pivot S1. The high stayed 41.0 beneath Pivot R1.
The range work held up better. The 4,035.1 low went 14.9 beneath the 4,050 bottom of the most likely case and held 15.1 above the 4,020 bottom of the high-range case. It held 8.6 above the 4,026.5 bottom of the average-true-range envelope and 12.3 above one standard deviation support at 4,022.8. The settle sat inside all three scenario ranges.
Every session band broke lower. From the reopen to 3:00 AM ET the contract traded from 4,044.5 to 4,116.2, 15.5 beneath the 4,060 bottom of the night band. London traded from 4,059.6 to 4,090.7, 10.4 beneath its 4,070 bottom. The morning ran 4,039.3 to 4,077.6 against 4,050 to 4,160. The afternoon ran 4,062.6 to 4,088.2 against 4,070 to 4,150.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-11-06 row reads 4,098.5, 4,116.2, 4,035.1 and 4,074.9 on 166,431 contracts, and the review states the same. Friday's open interest was not yet reported. Thursday's 2026-11-05 row was revised. It now carries 215,643 contracts against the preliminary 209,211 our Friday outlook carried. Its open interest reads 260,278, which that outlook listed as not yet reported.
An evening high, a low on the jobs report, and the levels around 4,105 to 4,115
The decline started on Thursday evening. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 16.0 to 4,111.6 and made the 4,116.2 high, which the 7:30 PM ET bar matched. The 8:00 PM ET bar then fell 27.9, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. From the reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 4,044.5 and 4,116.2. That window closed at 4,065.0.
The pre-open hours ran wider. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 4,035.1 and 4,090.7. The 8:30 AM ET bar carried the employment report. It fell 15.6, from 4,069.5 to 4,053.9, after reaching the 4,035.1 low. The 9:00 AM ET bar fell 13.2 to 4,041.3.
Buyers came back at the cash open. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 17.0 to 4,058.1, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar, from the 4,039.3 cash-hours low. The 1:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,087.2. The 2:00 PM ET bar made the 4,088.2 cash-hours high and closed at 4,074.2. The settle, 4,074.9, was set in the 1:30 PM ET window. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,079.5, 4.6 above it.
The four-hour bars show the shape. The first, from 6:00 PM ET, fell 27.3 to 4,071.2. The rest read minus 11.6, plus 14.6, minus 15.7, plus 29.3 and minus 7.5. Their closes ran 4,071.2, 4,058.8, 4,073.5, 4,058.1, 4,087.2 and 4,079.5. The 10:00 AM ET block's plus 29.3 was the largest.
The bar itself was of ordinary width. Its 81.1 point range was 0.96 times the 14-day average daily range of 84.2, the narrowest since the 77.6 point range of 11/03. The settle finished at 49.1 percent of it, 39.8 above the low and 41.3 beneath the high. It sat 23.6 beneath the 4,098.5 open, which came 15.0 beneath Thursday's settle. The high sat 39.6 beneath Thursday's 4,155.8, and the low 31.9 beneath Thursday's 4,067.0.
The swing lows had stepped up all week. Since the 3,879.3 low of 10/30 they read 3,889.0 on 11/02, 3,904.1 on 11/03, 3,928.2 on 11/04 and 4,067.0 on 11/05. Friday's 4,035.1 was the first lower low of the week. The decline gave back 38.6 of the 173.1 points gained on Wednesday and Thursday. The 4,074.9 settle is the lowest since Wednesday's 4,073.0.
Resistance starts at the Pivot Point, 4,075.4, 0.5 above the settle. The 4,079.5 close after the settle and the 20-day average at 4,080.7 follow. Five marks sit within 3.3 points: the 4,084.9 price at which the 3-day and 10-day crossover stalls, the 4,086.2 projection for a 70 percent raw stochastic, the 4,087.2 close of the 1:30 PM ET bar, Thursday's 20-day of 4,087.8 and the 4,088.2 cash-hours high. The 4,090.7 pre-open high caps that group.
Then comes the band the setup uses. Friday's 4,098.5 open and the 4,101.1 open of the 8:00 PM ET bar sit beneath it. The 4,103.6 retracement from the four-week high sits 1.4 beneath the 4,105 band bottom. Inside the band sit the 4,107.9 price at which the 18-day crossing stalls, the 4,111.6 close of the 7:00 PM ET bar and Thursday's 4,113.5 settle. Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high sit 0.7 and 1.2 above the 4,115 band top. The 4,119.3 published target price sits beyond.
Above the 4,135 stop the references thin out. One standard deviation resistance at 4,149.8 sits 14.8 beyond it. Thursday's 4,155.8 high and Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 sit 0.7 apart. The 4,161.5 average-true-range mark, the 4,169.6 price that would cross the 40-day average and two deviations at 4,180.8 follow. Pivot R3 at 4,196.8, three deviations at 4,204.6 and the 4,213.8 retracement from the 13-week low are the extended references.
The rest is distant. The 50-day sits at 4,230.4, with the 4,242.3 one-month high just above it and the 100-day at 4,250.9. The 200-day sits at 4,569.7. The provider publishes 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 5,781.8 as the 52-week high.
Support starts just beneath the settle. The 4,074.2 close of the 2:00 PM ET bar, the 4,073.2 close of the 8:00 PM ET bar and Wednesday's 4,073.0 settle sit within 1.9 points of it. The 4,069.5 open of the 8:30 AM ET bar comes next. Then 4,067.0, both the price that would cross the 18-day average on Monday and Thursday's low. The 4,065.0 window close and the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range follow. The second target sits 0.8 beneath that midpoint.
Lower, Friday's own prints line up. The 4,058.1 close of the 9:30 AM ET bar, the 4,053.9 close of the 8:30 AM ET bar, the 4,044.5 night low, the 4,041.3 close of the 9:00 AM ET bar and the 4,039.3 cash-hours low lead into the next band. Friday's 4,035.1 low, Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and the 5-day average at 4,034.3 sit 0.8 points apart. The third target, 4,035, sits 0.1 beneath that low and 0.4 above Pivot S1.
Deeper down sit the 9-day at 4,025.3, the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low and one standard deviation support at 4,000.0. Thursday's 5-day of 3,999.1, Pivot S2 at 3,994.3 and the 3,988.3 average-true-range mark follow. The 3,969.6 settle of 11/02 and two deviations at 3,969.0 sit 0.6 apart. Pivot S3 at 3,953.5 and three deviations at 3,945.2 come next. The 3,940.4 settle of 11/03, the 3,928.2 low of 11/04, the 3,904.1 low of 11/03, the 3,898.9 settle of 10/30 and the 3,889.0 low of 11/02 lead to the 3,879.3 low of 10/30. The provider publishes that as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low.
The averages split around the settle. It sits 40.6 above the 5-day at 4,034.3 and 49.6 above the 9-day at 4,025.3. It sits 5.8 beneath the 20-day at 4,080.7, 155.5 beneath the 50-day at 4,230.4, 176.0 beneath the 100-day at 4,250.9 and 494.8 beneath the 200-day at 4,569.7. Thursday's settle was the first above the 20-day since 09/03/26. Friday's went back beneath it. The 5-day rose 35.2 from 3,999.1 as Friday's settle replaced the 10/30 settle of 3,898.9. The 20-day eased 7.1 from 4,087.8. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,330.2, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,271.4 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,888.6. The February contract's premium over December narrowed to 32.6 from 33.4.
Momentum sits just beneath the midline. Relative strength reads 50.55 on the 9-day, 47.14 on the 14-day and 45.59 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 70.74 percent on the 9-day, 66.17 percent on the 14-day and 53.88 percent on the 20-day. The 14-day %K at 64.51 percent sits 15.63 above %D at 48.88 percent. Negative direction leads on both systems. On the 9-day it leads narrowly, 24.03 against 23.21, with the ADX at 32.50. On the 14-day it leads 24.62 against 19.92, with the ADX at 28.29. Historic volatility reads 28.50 percent on the 9-day and 25.46 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:20 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed.
The composite moved further to the sell side. Published for the Friday session, it reads "32% SELL", with strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest". The prior session read "16% SELL", a week ago "88% SELL" and a month ago "72% SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: HOLD", the medium-term "25% SELL" and the long-term "67% SELL". The trend composite reads "SELL".
Over five sessions the contract is up 176.0 from the 3,898.9 settle of 10/30, which the provider also publishes as a 4.51 percent five-day change. Settlements over six sessions ran 3,898.9, 3,969.6, 3,940.4, 4,073.0, 4,113.5 and 4,074.9. Changes over ten sessions ran plus 30.5, plus 36.2, minus 23.0, minus 20.2, minus 132.5, plus 70.7, minus 29.2, plus 132.6, plus 40.5 and minus 38.6. Daily ranges ran 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8, 77.6, 153.0, 88.8 and 81.1 points.
The 14-day average true range stands at 86.6 points, with the 14-day average daily range at 84.2. The 9-day figures are 88.4 and 95.0, and the 20-day 87.4 and 79.1. One average true range either side of the settle spans 3,988.3 to 4,161.5. The deviation bands are built from five settlements. They run 4,000.0 to 4,149.8, 3,969.0 to 4,180.8 and 3,945.2 to 4,204.6, and describe dispersion, not intraday reach. The weekend adds headline risk that a single-session band does not reflect.
The dollar rose 0.74 percent and gold fell 0.94 percent
The dollar firmed. The dollar index's daily record closed at 102.30, up 0.74 percent from 101.55. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up 3 basis points from 4.83 percent. Gold fell 0.94 percent across the same session. The moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects. Inflation-protected real yields were not available for this review.
The employment situation report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, as the calendar lists it. Payrolls rose 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent against a forecast of 4.2 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent on the month against 0.3 percent, per the same calendar. The 8:30 AM ET bar carried the 4,035.1 low. The series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
Commentary ran alongside. At 1:45 PM ET a macro-feed headline tied gold's drop below 4,100 to rising expectations of a Fed rate increase. That is attributed commentary. From 1:13 PM ET to 1:22 PM ET the news feed carried remarks from a Federal Reserve official that services inflation was not coming down as expected. At 2:00 PM ET the macro feed carried a headline that the official said the jobs data gives room for tightening. These are remarks carried by the feeds. The provider's commentary quoted another Federal Reserve official as saying inflation was too high, which is attributed commentary.
Equities rose. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.31 percent to 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq-100 1.35 percent to 26,989.99. The semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent. The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 9.01 percent. December crude rose 0.34 percent to 90.83. These moves coincided with gold's decline, and no series separates their effects.
Silver fell less. Its December contract fell 0.83 percent to 51.942. Gold fell more, so the gold-to-silver ratio eased to 78.45 from 78.54.
No structural demand figure was available. The feeds available for Friday carried no central-bank purchase figures and no fund-holdings data. The weekly positioning report, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, was released after the close. The macro feed's item put non-commercial net positions in gold at 179.5 thousand from 186.5 thousand, the figure as published and not recomputed. Friday's December volume was 166,431 contracts against a revised 215,643 on Thursday, down 49,212 or 22.8 percent. Open interest stood at 260,278 on Thursday 11/05 against 264,948 on Wednesday 11/04, down 4,670. Friday's open interest was not yet reported.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Friday, after the close, with a page date of 2026-11-06; every figure below is that evening read. The fund is a proxy, used qualitatively only and never translated into futures prices. It tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract. The console carried Thursday's 375.58 as its previous close. It showed a current price of 373.03, down 0.68 percent, a console reading and not a settlement.
Modeled call gamma read minus 229.9 million against put gamma of plus 92.84 million on the proxy. Modeled gamma on a proxy is a non-directional lens. Call volume of 184.52 thousand against put volume of 110.74 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only. Options volume says nothing about direction or demand. One-month implied volatility read 22.92 percent against realised volatility of 25.36 percent, 2.44 points beneath it. The implied-volatility rank read 19.91 percent and the skew rank 32.41 percent. The options-implied move was 5.43 dollars, about 1.46 percent of the 373.03 current price.
The console's level fields were not available for this review, and its high and low volatility point fields are excluded. These readings were taken after the close, so there is no reading of what options priced before or during Friday's session, and no inference about that is drawn. No fund figure sets a futures level here.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a short. Its band runs 4,105 to 4,115, 30.1 to 40.1 points above the settle. It holds the 4,107.9 price at which the 18-day crossing stalls, the 4,111.6 close of the 7:00 PM ET bar and Thursday's 4,113.5 settle. Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high sit just above it. The contract printed a lower high and a lower low and settled back beneath the 20-day average. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. The short needs a rebound into the band first.
Risk sits above Friday's high. The 4,135 stop sits 19.3 above Pivot R1, 18.8 above the high and 14.8 beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,149.8. Targets step down. The first, 4,085, sits 10.1 above the settle and 1.2 beneath the 4,086.2 raw-stochastic projection. Then comes 4,060, 14.9 beneath the settle and 0.8 beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range. The extended 4,035 sits 0.4 above Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and 0.1 beneath Friday's 4,035.1 low. The review names the case against the trade. The week's 176.0 point gain shows buying interest on dips. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, with no measured edge behind it.
The night session runs from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET Monday. Globex halted at 5:00 PM ET on Friday, so weekend headline risk sits between the settle and the reopen. Gap references run both ways. Above sit the 20-day average at 4,080.7, the 4,103.6 retracement and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7. Beneath sit the 4,060.8 midpoint, Friday's 4,035.1 low and Pivot S1 at 4,034.6. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's night bias is neutral to lower beneath the 20-day average. Its expected band runs roughly 4,040 to 4,110.
European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET. A European investor confidence survey at 4:30 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's London bias is neutral between Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7. Its band runs roughly 4,035 to 4,110.
Data arrive at 10:00 AM ET. Wholesale trade data is scheduled then, as the calendar lists it. Remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 8:40 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, and a consumer inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 AM ET, are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The morning band runs roughly 4,030 to 4,120. The setup band sits near its top; the 4,115 band top sits 5.0 beneath the 4,120 edge.
Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET, fixing the reference ahead of Tuesday's inflation data. A three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The afternoon band runs roughly 4,030 to 4,115. Its top meets the band top. The Monday evening session carries into the consumer price index, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In the review's judgment that is the first scheduled test of the dollar and yields after Friday's employment report. The producer price index follows at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
For the full session the review sets a low-range case of 4,040 to 4,110, a mid-range case, the most likely, of 4,020 to 4,125 and a high-range case of 3,990 to 4,160. The low-range top sits 5.0 beneath the band top. The high-range case sits just inside the average-true-range envelope. Its 3,990 bottom sits 1.7 above 3,988.3, and its 4,160 top 1.5 beneath 4,161.5.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7. Within it, a rebound toward the 4,103.6 to 4,115.7 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 is weighted above a settle through Friday's 4,116.2 high. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's interpretation, the "32% SELL" composite, negative direction on both systems and a settle beneath the 20-day favour a short on a rebound into Pivot R1 over an immediate extension lower.
The alternative that would invalidate the reading is a settle above Pivot R2 at 4,156.5. That would clear Thursday's 4,155.8 high and could bring the 4,169.6 crossing price of the 40-day average into play. On the other side, a reopen beneath Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 could bring Pivot S2 at 3,994.3 into play, without the rebound the setup needs.
Friday's long band traded two hours after the reopen. Monday's short band sits 30.1 points above the settle.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 4,074.9 on Friday, down 38.6 or 0.94 percent from Thursday's settle of 4,113.5, after trading between 4,116.2 and 4,035.1, an 81.1 point daily range. The settle finished at 49.1 percent of the range, and the range was 0.96 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 84.2 points. Friday printed a lower high, 39.6 beneath Thursday's 4,155.8, and a lower low, 31.9 beneath Thursday's 4,067.0, ending a run of two higher settles. Over the week the contract rose 176.0 from the 3,898.9 settle of 10/30/26, a gain of 4.51 percent.
The high came on Thursday evening and the low in the 8:30 AM ET bar that carried the employment report. The contract made the 4,116.2 high in the 7:00 PM ET bar and matched it in the 7:30 PM ET bar, the 8:00 PM ET bar fell 27.9, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session, and the 8:30 AM ET bar reached the 4,035.1 low before the cash hours held between 4,039.3 and 4,088.2. Payrolls rose 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, per the news-feed calendar, and a macro-feed headline at 1:45 PM ET tied gold's drop below 4,100 to rising expectations of a Fed rate increase; that is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
The dollar index rose 0.74 percent to 102.30 and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up three basis points. Silver's December contract fell 0.83 percent; gold fell more, so the ratio eased to 78.45 from 78.54. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.31 percent and the volatility index fell to 25.64.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "32% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest", against "16% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages and beneath the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day, back beneath the 20-day after one settle above it. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 4,105 to 4,115 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high, stopped at 4,135, with objectives at 4,085, 4,060 and an extended 4,035. Weekend headline risk separates Friday's settle from the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 4,098.5 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 15.0 beneath Thursday's settle, and the 30-minute series for the continuous contract places the high of 4,116.2 in the 7:00 PM ET bar on Thursday, matched in the 7:30 PM ET bar, and the low of 4,035.1 in the 8:30 AM ET bar on Friday. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 16.0 to 4,111.6, and the 8:00 PM ET bar fell 27.9, from 4,101.1 to 4,073.2. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 4,044.5 and 4,116.2 and closed that window at 4,065.0.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 4,035.1 and 4,090.7, with the 9:00 AM ET bar closing that window at 4,041.3. The 8:30 AM ET bar fell 15.6, from 4,069.5 to 4,053.9, after reaching the 4,035.1 low, and the 9:00 AM ET bar fell 13.2 to 4,041.3. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 17.0 to 4,058.1, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 4,039.3 and 4,088.2; the 1:30 PM ET bar rose to 4,087.2 and the 2:00 PM ET bar made the 4,088.2 high of that window before closing at 4,074.2. The settle of 4,074.9 is set in the 1:30 PM ET settlement window, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,079.5, 4.6 above the settle.
On a Friday evening Globex stays closed until the Sunday reopen, so the provider's overview page for Friday carries the completed Friday session itself, with an open of 4,098.5, a high of 4,116.2 and a low of 4,035.1. The completed range is still checked against the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 4,196.8 minus Pivot S3 at 3,953.5, divided by three, returns 81.1, and Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 minus Pivot S2 at 3,994.3, divided by two, returns the same 81.1. Three times the Pivot Point of 4,075.4 less the 4,074.9 settle gives a high plus low sum of 8,151.3, which with the 81.1 range solves to a high of 4,116.2 and a low of 4,035.1; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 4,098.5 open, 4,116.2 high, 4,035.1 low and 4,074.9 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday and settled 38.6 lower, inside the lower half of Thursday's 88.8 point range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 3,898.9, 3,969.6, 3,940.4, 4,073.0, 4,113.5 and 4,074.9, so Friday's decline gave back 38.6 of the 173.1 points gained on Wednesday and Thursday. Over five sessions the contract is up 176.0 from the 3,898.9 settle of 10/30, which the provider also publishes as a 4.51 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 5,781.8 as the 52-week high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 4,242.3 as the one-month high, and 3,879.3 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. The Friday settle sits 14.1 above the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range, published as the 50 percent retracement from the four-week high and low, and 28.7 beneath the 4,103.6 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/26, ran 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8, 77.6, 153.0, 88.8 and 81.1, so Friday's range was the narrowest since 11/03 and narrower than the 14-day average daily range. In the 30-minute series the largest declines came in the 8:00 PM ET bar, 27.9, the 8:30 AM ET bar, 15.6, and the 9:00 AM ET bar, 13.2, and the largest gains in the 9:30 AM ET bar, 17.0, and the 7:00 PM ET bar, 16.0.
The swing sequence since the 3,879.3 low of 10/30 shows higher lows at 3,889.0 on Monday, 3,904.1 on Tuesday, 3,928.2 on Wednesday, 4,067.0 on Thursday and a lower low of 4,035.1 on Friday, the first lower low of the week. The published grid places the price at which the 40-day average would be crossed at 4,169.6 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 4,213.8.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Friday; with Globex closed for the weekend there is no reopened-session row, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 4,034.3, the 9-day at 4,025.3, the 20-day at 4,080.7, the 50-day at 4,230.4, the 100-day at 4,250.9 and the 200-day at 4,569.7.
The 4,074.9 settle sits 40.6 above the 5-day average and 49.6 above the 9-day, and 5.8 beneath the 20-day, 155.5 beneath the 50-day, 176.0 beneath the 100-day and 494.8 beneath the 200-day. Thursday's settle was the first above the 20-day average since 09/03/26, and Friday's settle returned beneath it. The 5-day average rose from Thursday's 3,999.1 as Friday's settle replaced the 10/30 settle of 3,898.9, while the 20-day average eased from 4,087.8.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,330.2. The 50-day sits beneath the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged higher, at 4,271.4, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,888.6. The projection grid gives 4,067.0 as the price at which the 18-day average would be crossed on Monday and 4,107.9 as the price at which that crossing stalls.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:20 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed; they are the provider's readings, not computations made for this review. The 9-day relative strength reads 50.55, the 14-day relative strength 47.14 and the 20-day relative strength 45.59.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 70.74 percent, the 14-day raw stochastic 66.17 percent and the 20-day raw stochastic 53.88 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 64.51 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 48.88 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 32.50 with the 9-day +DI at 23.21 and the 9-day -DI at 24.03, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 28.29 with the 14-day +DI at 19.92 and the 14-day -DI at 24.62, so negative direction leads on both systems, narrowly on the 9-day. The 9-day historic volatility reads 28.50 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 25.46 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "32% SELL", with signal strength "Weak" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "16% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "72% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group reads "Average: HOLD", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 86.6 points and the 14-day average daily range at 84.2 points; the 9-day average true range is 88.4 with a 9-day average daily range of 95.0, and the 20-day average true range is 87.4 with a 20-day average daily range of 79.1. Friday's 81.1 point range was 0.96 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 86.6 from the 4,074.9 settle frames Monday between 3,988.3 and 4,161.5. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 4,000.0 to 4,149.8 at one deviation, 3,969.0 to 4,180.8 at two and 3,945.2 to 4,204.6 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the weekend adds headline risk that a single-session band does not reflect.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 4,074.9 settle, the first references are the Pivot Point at 4,075.4 and the 20-day average at 4,080.7, with the 4,084.9 crossover stall and the 4,088.2 cash-hours high above them. The 4,103.6 retracement from the four-week high, the 4,107.9 stall of the 18-day crossing, Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high form the next band, with the 4,119.3 published target price just above. One standard deviation resistance at 4,149.8, Thursday's 4,155.8 high and Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 4,067.0 price at which the 18-day average would be crossed and the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range. Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Friday's 4,035.1 low form the next band, with the 5-day average at 4,034.3 and the 9-day at 4,025.3 just beneath. The 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low, one standard deviation support at 4,000.0 and Pivot S2 at 3,994.3 are the deeper references, with Pivot S3 at 3,953.5 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index's daily record closed at 102.30, up 0.74 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up three basis points. Gold fell 0.94 percent across the same session. These moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects. Inflation-protected real yields were not available for this review.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
The employment situation report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent against a forecast of 4.2 percent and average hourly earnings up 0.4 percent on the month against a forecast of 0.3 percent, per the news-feed calendar. The news feed carried from 1:13 PM ET to 1:22 PM ET remarks from a Federal Reserve official that services inflation was not coming down as expected, and the macro feed at 2:00 PM ET a headline that the official said the jobs data gives room for tightening; these are remarks carried by the feeds. The provider's commentary quoted another Federal Reserve official as saying inflation was too high, which is attributed commentary.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The weekend carries headline risk before the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET. No report carried by the feeds is offered here as a cause of Friday's move.
4.4 China and Structural Demand
The feeds available for Friday carry no central-bank purchase figures and no fund-holdings data. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
December crude rose 0.34 percent to 90.83. The S&P 500 cash index rose 0.31 percent, the Nasdaq-100 1.35 percent and the semiconductor index 4.21 percent, and the volatility index closed at 25.64, down 9.01 percent. Silver's December contract fell 0.83 percent to 51.942, and gold fell more, so the gold to silver ratio eased to 78.45 from 78.54. These moves coincided with gold's decline, and no series here separates their effects.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026 was released after the close; the macro feed's item put non-commercial net positions in gold at 179.5 thousand from 186.5 thousand, which is the figure as published and was not recomputed. Exchange-traded fund holdings were not available for this review. Friday's December volume was 166,431 contracts against 215,643 on Thursday, per the settlement record; Thursday's figure is the revised one, against the preliminary 209,211 in our Friday outlook. Thursday's open interest reads 260,278 in the revised 2026-11-05 row, and Friday's open interest is not yet reported. February's premium over December narrowed to 32.6 from 33.4.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Friday, after the close, with a page date of 2026-11-06; every figure in this section is that evening read. The fund proxy is used qualitatively only and is never translated into futures prices; the fund tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract.
The console carried Thursday's 375.58 as its previous close and showed a current price of 373.03, down 0.68 percent, which is a console reading and not a settlement. Modeled call gamma reads minus 229.9 million against put gamma of plus 92.84 million. Call volume of 184.52 thousand against put volume of 110.74 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only; options volume is never a direction or demand read.
One-month implied volatility reads 22.92 percent against realised volatility of 25.36 percent, the implied-volatility rank 19.91 percent and the skew rank 32.41 percent, with an options-implied move of 5.43 dollars. The console's level fields were not available for this review, and its high and low volatility point fields are excluded.
These are readings taken after the close and describe the fund's options surface at that time only; no inference is drawn about what options priced before or during Friday's session. Nothing in this section is used to set a futures level; every level in this review originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex halted at 5:00 PM ET on Friday and reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026, with weekend headline risk between Friday's settle and the reopen. Gap references run both ways: above, the 20-day average at 4,080.7, the 4,103.6 retracement and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7; beneath, the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range, Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Friday's 4,035.1 low. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 20-day average, expected band roughly 4,040 to 4,110.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
A European investor confidence survey at 4:30 AM ET on Monday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral between Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7, expected band roughly 4,035 to 4,110.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Monday, US Open)
Wholesale trade data is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 8:40 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET and a consumer inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 AM ET on Monday are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 4,030 to 4,120, with the 4,105 to 4,115 setup band near the top, its 4,115 top 5.0 beneath the 4,120 edge.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
A three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET on Monday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the 1:30 PM ET settlement window fixes the reference ahead of Tuesday's inflation data. Expected band roughly 4,030 to 4,115.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The Monday evening session carries into the consumer price index scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it; in this review's judgment it is the first scheduled test of the dollar and yields after Friday's employment report.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 4,040 to 4,110
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 4,020 to 4,125
High-range scenario: 3,990 to 4,160
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 and Pivot R1 at 4,115.7, with a rebound toward the 4,103.6 to 4,115.7 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 weighted above a settle through Friday's 4,116.2 high. The composite reads "32% SELL" with direction "Weakest", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits back beneath the 20-day average with the dollar at 102.30, while the week's 176.0 point gain and the higher settles of Wednesday and Thursday describe a recovery that in this review's interpretation favours a short on a rebound into Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 over an immediate extension lower.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R2 at 4,156.5, which would clear Thursday's 4,155.8 high and bring the 4,169.6 crossing price of the 40-day average into play. On the other side, a reopen beneath Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 would bring Pivot S2 at 3,994.3 into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Friday's releases are complete. The employment situation report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with payrolls of 165 thousand against a forecast of 70 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official were scheduled for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and consumer credit rose 27.84 billion dollars against a forecast of 13.8 billion, per the news-feed calendar. The preliminary consumer sentiment index printed 51.0 against a forecast of 48, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed against the calendar.
Over the weekend, Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. On Monday, November 9, 2026, wholesale trade data is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it; remarks by Federal Reserve officials, a consumer inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 AM ET and a three-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, the consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, both as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order event for gold on Monday is the Sunday reopen at 6:00 PM ET after the employment report and the dollar's 0.74 percent rise, with Tuesday's inflation data the first scheduled test of rate expectations.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract printed a lower high and a lower low, settled back beneath the 20-day average after one settle above it, and the composite reads "32% SELL" with direction "Weakest" while negative direction leads on both directional systems and the dollar index closed at 102.30. A rebound into the 4,105 to 4,115 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high and around the 4,107.9 stall of the 18-day crossing, offers a short with a defined risk point above Friday's high. The week's 176.0 point gain shows buying interest on dips, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 4,105 to 4,115
Stop Loss: 4,135 (above Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday's 4,116.2 high, beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,149.8)
Target 1 (T1): 4,085 (beneath the 4,086.2 raw stochastic projection)
Target 2 (T2): 4,060 (beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 4,035 (above Pivot S1 at 4,034.6)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,115; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: Weekend headline risk or a softer dollar at the reopen could lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 4,135 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and one standard deviation resistance at 4,149.8 becomes the reference, 14.8 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 86.6.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on November 6, 2026 for the Monday, November 9, 2026 session. Friday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Monday: Pivot R3 at 4,196.8 less Pivot S3 at 3,953.5, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 less Pivot S2 at 3,994.3, divided by two, both return 81.1, and three times the 4,075.4 Pivot Point less the settle gives 8,151.3, which the 4,116.2 high and the 4,035.1 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Friday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. Only those figures, the dated 2026-11-06 row of the provider's daily record, Friday's 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Friday's card, which was set at Thursday's settle and covers the whole session from the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The 30-minute bars run from that reopen to the bar that opened at 4:30 PM ET on Friday, labelled in Eastern standard time. Each timed statement here names the bar in which a price first traded; the order of prices inside a single bar is not stated.
Globex is closed for the weekend, so the 2026-11-06 row is Friday's completed session. Thursday's 2026-11-05 row has been revised since our Friday outlook: volume now reads 215,643 contracts against the preliminary 209,211, and open interest 260,278, which that outlook listed as not yet reported; Thursday's prices are unchanged. Friday's open interest was not yet reported, so none is stated. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 260 completed sessions through Friday and rounded once to the 0.1 tick. The oscillators and range measures are cited as published, read at 6:20 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its gamma figures are modeled, its level fields were not available, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The volume and open interest changes, the fund's implied move as a percent and the gold and silver comparison are computed from the stated figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Friday outlook covers the December WTI contract. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
Tuesday’s follow-up outlook for gold, written after Monday’s close, is here.
