At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December gold reopened at 4,075.4 and printed its low of the day, 4,067.0, in that first 30-minute bar. It never went lower. The 4,030 to 4,040 long band we set for Thursday sat 27.0 points beneath that low, so the card never traded. The contract settled at 4,113.5 at 1:30 PM ET, up 40.5 points, or 0.99 percent.
It was the second consecutive higher settle and the first above the 20-day average since 09/03/26, after 43 sessions beneath it. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent the same day. The ten-year yield eased to 4.84 percent and the dollar index held at 101.55. Friday's primary setup stays long, from 4,070 to 4,080, just above Pivot S1 at 4,068.4. It sits 33.5 to 43.5 points beneath the settle. It asks for a pullback first.
December gold settled at 4,113.5 on Thursday, up 40.5 or 0.99 percent, after a 4,067.0 to 4,155.8 range, at 52.4 percent of that range. It sits above the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages. It sits beneath the 50-day at 4,242.2 and every longer average. The primary setup for Friday is a long from 4,070 to 4,080, stop 4,055, with targets at 4,095, 4,115 and an extended 4,135. The band and Target 1 sit beneath the settle; Target 2 and Target 3 sit above it. The composite reads "16% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakening". The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, as the calendar lists it.
Thursday never came back to the 4,030 to 4,040 long band
In Thursday’s outlook we set a long from 4,030 to 4,040 at Wednesday's settle, with a stop at 4,010 and targets at 4,060, 4,085 and an extended 4,110. The card covered Thursday's whole session. Thursday's bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-05 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 4,075.4 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. It marked a low of 4,067.0 and a high of 4,155.8 and settled at 4,113.5.
The band never traded. The low came first, in the 6:00 PM ET reopen bar, and it held 27.0 above the 4,040 band top. No 30-minute bar reached the band, the 4,010 stop or the 4,060 first target. There was no entry. No fill and no result is asserted. We grade the card as written: not triggered.
The targets printed without the band. The session opened 15.4 above the 4,060 first target and never came back to it. The 4,085 second target traded in the 7:00 PM ET bar, which ran to 4,090.6. The 4,110 third target traded an hour later, in the 8:00 PM ET bar, which reached 4,128.5. None of it counts for the card.
Neither exit test came into play. No 30-minute close went beneath 4,030. The settle finished 110.3 above the 4,003.2 invalidation line. The macro override named a stronger dollar after the 8:30 AM ET US data, or a sharp rise in yields. Neither came. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.55 against 101.57, and the ten-year yield index fell 5 basis points to 4.84 percent. Productivity read 3.6 percent against a 2.7 percent forecast and unit labour costs minus 0.7 percent against 0.4 percent, per the news-feed calendar.
The path call missed. Our Thursday outlook held the contract between the Pivot Point at 4,027.5 and Pivot R1 at 4,126.7. It weighted a pullback toward 4,049.8 to 4,027.5. The low stayed 17.2 above that band. Our alternative was a move through the 4,103.6 retracement before any pullback, bringing Pivot R1 into play without the entry. That is the session that came. The 7:30 PM ET bar went through 4,103.6, and the 8:00 PM ET bar went through Pivot R1.
The range work held at the settle and missed at the top. The 4,113.5 settle sat inside the 4,000 to 4,120 most likely case, 6.5 beneath its top. The 4,155.8 high went 5.8 above the 4,150 top of the high-range case. It went 13.0 above one standard deviation resistance at 4,142.8. It stayed 4.1 beneath the 4,159.9 top of the average-true-range envelope and 16.0 beneath two deviations at 4,171.8. The high cleared Pivot R1 by 29.1; the settle finished 13.2 beneath it.
Every session band broke higher. From the reopen to 3:00 AM ET the contract traded from 4,067.0 to 4,155.8, 60.8 above the 4,095 top of the night band. London traded from 4,125.8 to 4,147.7, wholly above its 4,035 to 4,100 band. The morning ran 4,085.6 to 4,145.3 against 4,020 to 4,110. The afternoon ran 4,105.3 to 4,137.6 against 4,030 to 4,110.
One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-11-05 row reads 4,075.4, 4,155.8, 4,067.0 and 4,113.5 on 209,211 contracts, and the review states the same. Thursday's open interest was not yet reported. Wednesday's 2026-11-04 row was revised. It now carries 232,561 contracts against the preliminary 226,987 our Thursday outlook carried. Its open interest reads 264,948, which that outlook listed as not yet reported.
An early 4,155.8 high, and the levels around 4,070 to 4,080
The advance came early. From the 4,067.0 low in the 6:00 PM ET bar, the bars climbed into the night. The 7:00 PM ET bar rose 15.5 and the 8:30 PM ET bar rose 19.5. The 10:30 PM ET bar made the 4,155.8 high. Then the 12:00 AM ET bar fell 17.6, and the window closed at 4,133.8 at 3:00 AM ET.
The pre-open hours held a narrow band. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 4,120.4 and 4,147.7 and closed the window at 4,131.2. Then the cash hours opened. The 9:30 AM ET bar made the cash-hours high of 4,145.3 and a low of 4,101.6. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 17.8 to 4,094.1, with the cash-hours low of 4,085.6.
Buyers returned at 11:00 AM ET. That bar rose 31.2, from 4,094.3 to 4,125.5, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 11:30 AM ET bar reached 4,138.2. The 12:00 PM ET bar fell 15.8. From 12:30 PM ET to 1:30 PM ET the bars held between 4,105.3 and 4,122.2, and the settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET at 4,113.5. After it, the 4:00 PM ET bar fell 10.7, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,097.9, 15.6 beneath the settle.
The four-hour bars show where the gain came from. The first, from 6:00 PM ET, rose 63.4 to 4,138.8. The rest changed little or eased: minus 2.1, plus 2.8, minus 17.0, minus 6.6 and minus 17.6. Their closes ran 4,138.8, 4,136.5, 4,139.4, 4,122.1, 4,115.3 and 4,097.9. The first four hours rose more than the session's 38.1 point body.
The bar itself was average in width. Its 88.8 point range was 1.08 times the 14-day average daily range of 82.4, the narrowest since the 77.6 point range of 11/03. The settle finished at 52.4 percent of it, 46.5 above the low and 42.3 beneath the high. The body ran 38.1 above the 4,075.4 open, which sat 2.4 above Wednesday's settle. The high cleared Wednesday's 4,081.2 by 74.6. The low held 138.8 above Wednesday's 3,928.2, and the settle sat 32.3 above Wednesday's high.
The swing lows keep stepping up. Since the 3,879.3 low of 10/30 they read 3,889.0 on Monday, 3,904.1 on Tuesday, 3,928.2 on Wednesday and 4,067.0 on Thursday. Two sessions added 173.1 points from Tuesday's 3,940.4 settle. The 4,113.5 settle is the highest since the 4,150.0 settle of 10/21/26. The 4,155.8 high is the highest since the 4,164.3 high of 10/22/26.
Resistance starts at 4,120.4, the low of the pre-open hours. The 4,122.2 high of the bars into the settle, the 4,125.5 close of the 11:00 AM ET bar and the 4,130.2 price at which the 3-day and 10-day crossover stalls follow. Then come the 4,131.2 and 4,133.8 window closes, the 4,138.2 high of the 11:30 AM ET bar and the 4,144.8 projection for an 80 percent raw stochastic. The 4,145.3 cash-hours high and the 4,147.7 pre-open high sit just beneath the 4,150.0 settle of 10/21.
Above that sits the band the review names. Thursday's 4,155.8 high and Pivot R1 at 4,157.2 sit 1.4 apart. The 4,164.3 high of 10/22, the 4,168.7 published target price and the 4,176.7 price that would cross the 40-day average come next. Pivot R2 at 4,200.9 sits beside the 4,200.5 average-true-range mark and one standard deviation resistance at 4,204.2. The 4,213.8 retracement from the 13-week low is the last extended reference.
The rest is distant. Two deviations resistance at 4,241.8, the 50-day at 4,242.2, the 4,242.3 one-month high and Pivot R3 at 4,246.0 sit within 4.2 points of each other. Wednesday's 50-day of 4,253.0, the 100-day at 4,254.3 and three deviations at 4,270.6 follow. The provider publishes 4,317.1 as the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high and 5,781.8 as the 52-week high. The 200-day sits at 4,574.8.
Support starts at the settle. The Pivot Point at 4,112.1 sits 1.4 beneath it. The 4,105.3 low of the bars into the settle, the 4,103.6 retracement from the four-week high and the 4,101.6 low of the 9:30 AM ET bar follow. The 4,097.9 close after the settle and the 4,094.1 close of the 10:30 AM ET bar sit above the 20-day average at 4,087.8. The 4,085.6 cash-hours low and Wednesday's 4,081.2 high close the upper group.
Then the band. Inside 4,070 to 4,080 sit Thursday's 4,075.4 open and Wednesday's 4,073.0 settle. Beneath it, the 4,068.9 crossing price of the 18-day, Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and Thursday's 4,067.0 low sit 1.1, 1.6 and 3.0 beneath the band bottom. The 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range sits 5.8 above the 4,055 stop.
Deeper down the gap opens. The 10/29 settle of 4,031.4 left the 5-day window on Thursday. The 4,026.5 average-true-range mark, Pivot S2 at 4,023.3, one standard deviation support at 4,022.8, the 9-day at 4,021.3 and the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low form one band, 8.5 points wide.
The 5-day average at 3,999.1, two deviations support at 3,985.2, Wednesday's 5-day of 3,982.7 and Pivot S3 at 3,979.6 come next. Monday's 3,969.6 settle and three deviations support at 3,956.4 follow. Tuesday's 3,940.4 settle and Wednesday's 3,928.2 low lead into Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and the 10/30 settle of 3,898.9. Monday's 3,889.0 low sits above the 3,879.3 low of 10/30, which the provider publishes as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low.
The averages split around the settle. It sits 114.4 above the 5-day at 3,999.1, 92.2 above the 9-day at 4,021.3 and 25.7 above the 20-day at 4,087.8. It sits 128.7 beneath the 50-day at 4,242.2, 140.8 beneath the 100-day at 4,254.3 and 461.3 beneath the 200-day at 4,574.8. The 5-day rose 16.4 from 3,982.7 as Thursday's settle replaced the 10/29 settle of 4,031.4. The 20-day fell 2.2 from 4,090.0. The 50-day fell 10.8 from 4,253.0. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,345.2, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,266.4 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,895.3. The February contract's premium over December narrowed to 33.4 from 33.8.
Momentum sits around the midline. Relative strength reads 55.09 on the 9-day, 50.00 on the 14-day and 47.57 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 84.70 percent on the 9-day, 70.56 percent on the 14-day and 64.52 percent on the 20-day. The 14-day %K at 48.42 percent sits 15.48 above %D at 32.94 percent. Direction is split. On the 9-day, positive direction at 25.84 leads negative at 22.29 with the ADX at 36.35; on the 14-day, negative direction at 23.57 still leads positive at 21.35 with the ADX at 29.66. Historic volatility reads 27.93 percent on the 9-day and 25.29 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:25 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.
The composite eased. Published for Friday, it reads "16% SELL", with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakening". The prior session and a week ago read "88% SELL"; a month ago it read "80% SELL". The short-term group averages "40% BUY", the medium-term "25% SELL" and the long-term "67% SELL". The trend composite reads "SELL".
Over five sessions the contract is up 82.1 from the 4,031.4 settle of 10/29, which the provider also publishes as a 2.04 percent five-day change. Settlements over six sessions ran 4,031.4, 3,898.9, 3,969.6, 3,940.4, 4,073.0 and 4,113.5. Changes over ten sessions ran minus 52.5, plus 30.5, plus 36.2, minus 23.0, minus 20.2, minus 132.5, plus 70.7, minus 29.2, plus 132.6 and plus 40.5. Daily ranges ran 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8, 77.6, 153.0 and 88.8 points.
The 14-day average true range stands at 87.0 points, with the 14-day average daily range at 82.4. The 9-day figures are 89.3 and 91.9, and the 20-day 87.7 and 79.0. One average true range either side of the settle spans 4,026.5 to 4,200.5. The deviation bands are built from five settlements. They run 4,022.8 to 4,204.2, 3,985.2 to 4,241.8 and 3,956.4 to 4,270.6, and describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
Equities fell, yields eased and gold rose 0.99 percent
The dollar held. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.55 against 101.57, down 0.02. The ten-year yield index fell 5 basis points to 4.84 percent from 4.89 percent. Gold rose 0.99 percent across the same session. The moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects. Inflation-protected real yields were not available for this review.
Equities fell. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq-100 6.36 percent to 26,629.81. The semiconductor index fell 12.25 percent. The volatility index closed at 28.18, up 69.66 percent from 16.61. Gold traded between 4,085.6 and 4,145.3 across the cash hours while equities fell; the series does not establish what caused any particular move.
Metals and energy rose. Silver's December contract rose 0.18 percent to 52.376, so gold outperformed silver and the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 78.54 from 77.90. December crude rose 2.72 percent to 90.52, and Brent's January contract rose 3.88 percent. These moves coincided with gold's advance, and no series separates their effects.
Commentary ran alongside. At 3:30 PM ET a headline carried by the news feed linked gold's move above 4,100 dollars to fading expectations of a December rate increase. That is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish what caused any particular move. At 9:24 AM ET the news feed carried a Federal Reserve official saying productivity gains reflected adaptation to labour shortages; that too is an attributed item.
Diplomacy headlines crossed the feed after the settle. At 2:41 PM ET the news feed carried a report, attributed to a senior Iranian official, that Iran had sent the US a nuclear proposal through an intermediary. At 2:42 PM ET it carried a report that the US was reviewing it. These reports on US and Iran diplomacy are not events confirmed for this review, and none is offered as a cause.
Rate items came from abroad. The UK central bank raised its rate to 4.00 percent from 3.75 percent with nine votes for the increase, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Press reports carried by the news feed said the Mexican central bank cut its rate to 6.25 percent from 6.50 percent. Both items are unconfirmed. Weekly jobless claims read 189 thousand against a forecast of 196 thousand, as listed by the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed against the calendar.
No structural demand figure was available. Central-bank purchase figures, fund holdings and the weekly positioning report were not available for this review, so none is asserted. The macro feed carried commentary that Chinese authorities were resisting the pace of yuan appreciation; that is attributed commentary, not a gold-specific flow. Thursday's December volume was 209,211 contracts against a revised 232,561 on Wednesday, down 23,350 or 10.0 percent. Open interest stood at 264,948 on Wednesday 11/04 against 268,217 on Tuesday 11/03, down 3,269. Thursday's open interest was not yet reported.
The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Thursday, after the close, with a page date of 2026-11-05; every figure below is that evening read. The fund is a proxy, used qualitatively only and never translated into futures prices. It tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract. The console carried Wednesday's 372.48 as its previous close. It showed a current price of 374.68, up 0.59 percent, a console reading and not a settlement.
Modeled call gamma read minus 585.93 million against put gamma of minus 481.34 million on the proxy. At that read aggregate gamma was negative on both sides; modeled gamma on a proxy is a non-directional lens. Call volume of 158.69 thousand against put volume of 78.55 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only. Options volume says nothing about direction or demand. One-month implied volatility read 21.26 percent against realised volatility of 24.87 percent, 3.61 points beneath it. The implied-volatility rank read 13.12 percent and the skew rank 56.00 percent. The options-implied move was 5 dollars, about 1.33 percent of the 374.68 current price.
The console lists the fund's largest gamma concentration at 400, which is also its call side ceiling, a secondary dealer level at 370 and the put side support base at 350. Those levels sit on the fund's scale. The console price sat 2.20 dollars above the previous close, above the 370 dealer level and beneath the 400 concentration. These readings were taken after the close, so there is no reading of what options priced before or during Thursday's session, and no inference about that is drawn. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded, and no fund figure sets a futures level here.
The trade map for Friday
The primary setup is a long. Its band runs 4,070 to 4,080, 33.5 to 43.5 points beneath the settle. It holds Thursday's 4,075.4 open and Wednesday's 4,073.0 settle. The 4,068.9 crossing price of the 18-day, Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and Thursday's 4,067.0 low sit just beneath it. The settle sits above the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages, and positive direction leads on the 9-day system. The long needs a pullback into the band first.
Risk sits beneath the midpoint of the four-week range. The 4,055 stop sits 5.8 beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint, 13.4 beneath Pivot S1 and 12.0 beneath Thursday's low. Targets step up. The first, 4,095, sits 8.6 beneath the 4,103.6 retracement and 18.5 beneath the settle, 7.2 above the 20-day. Then comes 4,115, 2.9 above the Pivot Point and 1.5 above the 4,113.5 settle. The extended 4,135 sits 4.8 above the 4,130.2 stall price and 9.8 beneath the 4,144.8 raw-stochastic projection. The review names the case against the trade. The 50-day average sits 128.7 above the settle, and negative direction still leads on the 14-day system. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that pullbacks toward Pivot S1 are bought, with no measured edge behind it.
The night session runs from the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET Friday. Globex reopened at 4,098.5, and as of 6:27 PM ET the reopened session had traded between 4,080.4 and 4,104.3, per the review; those are live prints, not a settle. The low print sat 0.4 above the band's 4,080 top. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 7:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's night bias is neutral between Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and the Pivot Point at 4,112.1, with an expected band of roughly 4,060 to 4,130.
European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET. Remarks by a regional Federal Reserve official and a European central bank official at 4:30 AM ET, and European retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's London band runs roughly 4,070 to 4,130, with a neutral bias. Its bottom meets the band bottom.
Data arrive at 8:30 AM ET. The employment situation report is scheduled then, as the calendar lists it. In the review's judgment it is the first-order test for gold, through the dollar and the ten-year yield. The preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET, with its inflation expectations, is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The morning band runs roughly 4,050 to 4,160. The setup band's 4,070 bottom sits 20.0 above its lower edge, and the whole band sits beneath the 4,098.5 reopen print.
Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET, fixing the reference ahead of the weekend. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. The afternoon band runs roughly 4,070 to 4,150. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, with weekend headline risk on diplomacy. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
For the full session the review sets a low-range case of 4,070 to 4,130, a mid-range case, the most likely, of 4,050 to 4,160 and a high-range case of 4,020 to 4,200. The low-range bottom meets the band bottom. The high-range case's 4,020 bottom sits 6.5 beneath the 4,026.5 bottom of the average-true-range envelope; its 4,200 top sits 0.5 beneath the 4,200.5 top. Next week, the consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and Pivot R1 at 4,157.2. Within it, a pullback toward the 4,070 to 4,080 band that holds above Thursday's 4,067.0 low is weighted above a break beneath it. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's interpretation, with the 50-day 128.7 above the settle and negative direction still ahead on the 14-day system, a pullback entry is favoured over a move through Pivot R1 at 4,157.2.
The alternative that would invalidate the reading is a settle beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint. That could bring Pivot S2 at 4,023.3 and the 4,018.0 retracement into play. A move through Pivot R1 at 4,157.2 before any pullback could instead bring the 4,176.7 crossing price and Pivot R2 at 4,200.9 into play, without the entry the setup needs.
Thursday's card waited 27.0 points beneath the low. Friday's asks for 33.5.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December gold contract settled at 4,113.5 on Thursday, up 40.5 or 0.99 percent from Wednesday's settle of 4,073.0, after trading between 4,155.8 and 4,067.0, an 88.8 point daily range. The settle finished at 52.4 percent of the range, and the range was 1.08 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 82.4 points. Thursday printed a higher high, 74.6 above Wednesday's 4,081.2, and a higher low, 138.8 above Wednesday's 3,928.2, and it was the second consecutive higher settle. The 4,113.5 settle is the highest since the 4,150.0 settle of 10/21/26, and the 4,155.8 high is the highest since the 4,164.3 high of 10/22/26.
The high came early. The contract reached 4,155.8 in the 10:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening, held between 4,120.4 and 4,147.7 from 3:00 AM ET to the cash open, and traded between 4,085.6 and 4,145.3 across the cash hours as equities fell. A headline carried by the news feed at 3:30 PM ET linked gold's move above 4,100 dollars to fading expectations of a December rate increase; that is attributed commentary, and the series does not establish what caused any particular move.
The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent and the Nasdaq-100 6.36 percent, the volatility index closed at 28.18, up 69.66 percent, the ten-year yield eased to 4.84 percent, down five basis points and the dollar index held at 101.55. Silver's December contract rose 0.18 percent, so the gold to silver ratio rose to 78.54 from 77.90. The settle is the first above the 20-day settlement average since 09/03/26, after 43 sessions beneath it.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Friday is "16% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakening", against "88% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a long from the 4,070 to 4,080 band above Pivot S1 at 4,068.4, stopped at 4,055, with objectives at 4,095, 4,115 and an extended 4,135.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Thursday session opened at 4,075.4 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 2.4 above Wednesday's settle, and the 30-minute series for the continuous contract places the low of 4,067.0 in the 6:00 PM ET bar and the high of 4,155.8 in the 10:30 PM ET bar. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars climbed from the low to the high; the 7:00 PM ET bar rose 15.5 and the 8:30 PM ET bar rose 19.5, and the 12:00 AM ET bar fell 17.6, the window closing at 4,133.8.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract held between 4,120.4 and 4,147.7 and closed that window at 4,131.2. The 9:30 AM ET bar made the cash-hours high of 4,145.3 and a low of 4,101.6, and the 10:30 AM ET bar fell 17.8 to 4,094.1 with the cash-hours low of 4,085.6. The 11:00 AM ET bar rose 31.2, from 4,094.3 to 4,125.5, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session, and the 11:30 AM ET bar reached 4,138.2. The 12:00 PM ET bar fell 15.8, and the bars from 12:30 PM ET to 1:30 PM ET held between 4,105.3 and 4,122.2 into the 1:30 PM ET settlement at 4,113.5. After the settle the 4:00 PM ET bar fell 10.7, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,097.9, 15.6 beneath the settle.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Friday, so Thursday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 4,246.0 minus Pivot S3 at 3,979.6, divided by three, returns 88.8, and Pivot R2 at 4,200.9 minus Pivot S2 at 4,023.3, divided by two, returns the same 88.8. Three times the Pivot Point of 4,112.1 less the 4,113.5 settle gives a high plus low sum of 8,222.8, which solves to a high of 4,155.8 and a low of 4,067.0; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 4,075.4 open, 4,155.8 high, 4,067.0 low and 4,113.5 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Thursday printed a higher high and a higher low against Wednesday, and it settled 40.5 higher, above Wednesday's 4,081.2 high. Settlements over the last six sessions read 4,031.4, 3,898.9, 3,969.6, 3,940.4, 4,073.0 and 4,113.5, so the contract has added 173.1 over the last two sessions. Over five sessions the contract is up 82.1 from the 4,031.4 settle of 10/29, which the provider also publishes as a 2.04 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 5,781.8 as the 52-week high, 4,755.0 as the 13-week high, 4,242.3 as the one-month high and 3,879.3 as the one-month, 13-week and 52-week low. The Thursday settle sits 9.9 above the 4,103.6 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high and 52.7 above the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/23, ran 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8, 77.6, 153.0 and 88.8, so Thursday's range was the narrowest since the 77.6 point range of 11/03. In the 30-minute series the largest gains came in the 11:00 AM ET bar, 31.2, the 8:30 PM ET bar, 19.5, and the 7:00 PM ET bar, 15.5, and the largest declines in the 10:30 AM ET bar, 17.8, and the 12:00 AM ET bar, 17.6.
The swing sequence since the 10/30 low of 3,879.3 is a run of higher lows: 3,889.0 on Monday, 3,904.1 on Tuesday, 3,928.2 on Wednesday and 4,067.0 on Thursday. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 4,103.6, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 4,213.8 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 4,317.1.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Thursday; the partial row of the reopened Friday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the tenth. The 5-day average stands at 3,999.1, the 9-day at 4,021.3, the 20-day at 4,087.8, the 50-day at 4,242.2, the 100-day at 4,254.3 and the 200-day at 4,574.8.
The 4,113.5 settle sits 114.4 above the 5-day average, 92.2 above the 9-day and 25.7 above the 20-day, and 128.7 beneath the 50-day, 140.8 beneath the 100-day and 461.3 beneath the 200-day. It is the first settle above the 20-day average since 09/03/26, after 43 consecutive sessions beneath it. The 5-day average rose from Wednesday's 3,982.7 as Thursday's settle replaced the 10/29 settle of 4,031.4, and the 50-day average fell from 4,253.0.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 4,345.2. The 50-day sits beneath the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged higher, at 4,266.4, and the 100-day sits beneath the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged higher, at 4,895.3. The projection grid gives 4,176.7 as the price at which the 40-day average would be crossed on Friday and 4,068.9 for the 18-day average.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:25 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, not computations made for this review, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 55.09, the 14-day relative strength 50.00 and the 20-day relative strength 47.57.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 84.70 percent, the 14-day raw stochastic 70.56 percent and the 20-day raw stochastic 64.52 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 48.42 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 32.94 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 36.35 with the 9-day +DI at 25.84 and the 9-day -DI at 22.29, so positive direction leads on the 9-day system, while the 14-day directional index ADX reads 29.66 with the 14-day +DI at 21.35 and the 14-day -DI at 23.57, so negative direction still leads on the 14-day system. The 9-day historic volatility reads 27.93 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 25.29 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "16% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakening". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "88% SELL" a week ago and "80% SELL" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% BUY", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 87.0 points and the 14-day average daily range at 82.4 points; the 9-day average true range is 89.3 with a 9-day average daily range of 91.9, and the 20-day average true range is 87.7 with a 20-day average daily range of 79.0. Thursday's 88.8 point range was 1.08 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 87.0 from the 4,113.5 settle frames Friday between 4,026.5 and 4,200.5. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 4,022.8 to 4,204.2 at one deviation, 3,985.2 to 4,241.8 at two and 3,956.4 to 4,270.6 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 4,113.5 settle, the first references are the 4,130.2 price at which the 3-10 day average crossover stalls and the 4,144.8 projection published for an 80 percent reading of the 14-3 day oscillator. Thursday's 4,155.8 high and Pivot R1 at 4,157.2 form the next band, with the 4,168.7 published target price and the 4,176.7 price that would cross the 40-day average above them. Pivot R2 at 4,200.9, one standard deviation resistance at 4,204.2 and the 4,213.8 retracement from the 13-week low are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the Pivot Point at 4,112.1, the 4,103.6 retracement from the four-week high and the 4,087.8 20-day average. The 4,068.9 price that would cross the 18-day average, Pivot S1 at 4,068.4, Thursday's 4,067.0 low and the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range form the next band. Pivot S2 at 4,023.3, one standard deviation support at 4,022.8 and the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low are the deeper references.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar and Real Yields
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.55, little changed, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.84 percent, a decline of five basis points. Gold rose 0.99 percent across the same session. These moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects. Inflation-protected real yields were not available for this review.
4.2 Fed and Monetary Policy
The news feed carried at 9:24 AM ET a Federal Reserve official saying productivity gains reflected adaptation to labour shortages rather than artificial intelligence, and its headline at 3:30 PM ET described fading expectations of a December rate increase; both are attributed items. The UK central bank raised its rate to 4.00 percent from 3.75 percent with nine votes for the increase, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and press reports carried by the news feed said the Mexican central bank cut its rate to 6.25 percent from 6.50 percent, unconfirmed. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 12:15 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 2:41 PM ET a report, attributed to a senior Iranian official, that Iran had sent the US a nuclear proposal through an intermediary, and at 2:42 PM ET a report that the US was reviewing it. These reports on US and Iran diplomacy were carried by the feed, are not events confirmed for this review, and none is offered as a cause.
4.4 China and Structural Demand
The feeds available for Thursday carry no central-bank purchase figures. The macro feed carried commentary that Chinese authorities were resisting the pace of yuan appreciation, which is attributed commentary. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.5 Energy and Cross-Asset
December crude rose 2.72 percent to 90.52. Brent's January contract rose 3.88 percent. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent, the Nasdaq-100 6.36 percent and the semiconductor index 12.25 percent, and the volatility index closed at 28.18. Silver's December contract rose 0.18 percent to 52.376, so gold outperformed silver and the ratio rose to 78.54 from 77.90. These moves coincided with gold's advance, and no series here separates their effects.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The weekly positioning report and exchange-traded fund holdings were not available for this review. Thursday's December volume was 209,211 contracts against 232,561 on Wednesday, per the settlement record; Wednesday's figure is the revised one, against the preliminary 226,987 in our Thursday outlook. The open-interest column of the record is published with a lag and is not used, so Thursday's open interest is not yet reported. February's premium over December narrowed to 33.4 from 33.8.
5. Gold Fund Options Context (Proxy)
The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Thursday, after the close, with a page date of 2026-11-05; every figure in this section is that evening read. The fund proxy is used qualitatively only and is never translated into futures prices; the fund tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract.
The console carried Wednesday's 372.48 as its previous close and showed a current price of 374.68, up 0.59 percent, which is a console reading and not a settlement. Modeled call gamma reads minus 585.93 million against put gamma of minus 481.34 million, so aggregate gamma is negative on both sides. Call volume of 158.69 thousand against put volume of 78.55 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only; options volume is never a direction or demand read.
One-month implied volatility reads 21.26 percent against realised volatility of 24.87 percent, the implied-volatility rank 13.12 percent and the skew rank 56.00 percent, with an options-implied move of 5 dollars. The console lists the fund's largest gamma concentration at 400, which is also its call side ceiling, a secondary dealer level at 370 and the put side support base at 350. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded.
These are readings taken after the close and describe the fund's options surface at that time only; no inference is drawn about what options priced before or during Thursday's session. Nothing in this section is used to set a futures level; every level in this review originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET at 4,098.5, and as of 6:27 PM ET the chart's reopened daily bar had traded between 4,080.4 and 4,104.3; these are live prints, not a settle. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 7:00 PM ET on Thursday are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral between Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and the Pivot Point at 4,112.1, expected band roughly 4,060 to 4,130.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Friday)
Remarks by a regional Federal Reserve official and a European central bank official at 4:30 AM ET, and European retail sales at 5:00 AM ET, are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral, expected band roughly 4,070 to 4,130.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Friday, US Open)
The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and in this review's judgment is the first-order test for gold through the dollar and yields. The preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 4,050 to 4,160, with the 4,070 to 4,080 setup band beneath the 4,098.5 reopen print, its 4,070 bottom 20.0 above the 4,050 edge.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 4:00 PM ET Friday)
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists them. The settlement at 1:30 PM ET fixes the reference ahead of the weekend. Expected band roughly 4,070 to 4,150.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, with weekend headline risk on diplomacy. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
6.6 Expected Range (Friday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 4,070 to 4,130
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 4,050 to 4,160
High-range scenario: 4,020 to 4,200
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and Pivot R1 at 4,157.2, with a pullback toward the 4,070 to 4,080 band that holds above Thursday's 4,067.0 low weighted above a break beneath it. The composite eased to "16% SELL" from "88% SELL", the settle sits above the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day averages and positive direction leads on the 9-day system, while the 14-day system still shows negative direction ahead and the 50-day average sits 128.7 above the settle, which in this review's interpretation favours a pullback entry over a move through Pivot R1 at 4,157.2.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range, which would bring Pivot S2 at 4,023.3 and the 4,018.0 retracement into play. On the other side, a move through Pivot R1 at 4,157.2 before any pullback would bring the 4,176.7 crossing price and Pivot R2 at 4,200.9 into play without the entry the setup needs.
7. Friday Economic Calendar
Thursday's releases are complete. Preliminary productivity and costs were released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with productivity at 3.6 percent against a forecast of 2.7 percent and unit labour costs at minus 0.7 percent against a forecast of 0.4 percent, per the news-feed calendar. Weekly jobless claims of 189 thousand against a forecast of 196 thousand were listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed against the calendar. The UK central bank decision at 7:00 AM ET raised the rate to 4.00 percent, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
On Friday, November 6, 2026, the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, remarks by a Federal Reserve official for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. The preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET, with its inflation expectations, is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Next week, the consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on gold for Friday is the 8:30 AM ET employment report through the dollar and the ten-year yield.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The contract printed a higher high and a higher low, settled above the 20-day average for the first time since 09/03/26, and the composite eased to "16% SELL" from "88% SELL" while positive direction leads on the 9-day system. A pullback into the 4,070 to 4,080 band, above Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and the 4,067.0 session low, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range. The 50-day average sits 128.7 above the settle and the 14-day system still shows negative direction ahead, so the setup is an analyst judgment that pullbacks toward Pivot S1 are bought, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 4,070 to 4,080
Stop Loss: 4,055 (beneath Pivot S1 at 4,068.4 and the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range)
Target 1 (T1): 4,095 (beneath the 4,103.6 retracement)
Target 2 (T2): 4,115 (above the Pivot Point at 4,112.1 and the 4,113.5 settle)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 4,135 (beneath the 4,144.8 raw stochastic projection)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath the 4,060.8 midpoint of the four-week range negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 4,070; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A stronger employment report that lifts the dollar and yields would pressure the contract. In that scenario a move through the 4,055 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and Pivot S2 at 4,023.3 becomes the reference, 31.7 beneath the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 87.0.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Thursday's close on November 5, 2026 for the Friday, November 6, 2026 session. Thursday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Friday: Pivot R3 at 4,246.0 less Pivot S3 at 3,979.6, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,200.9 less Pivot S2 at 4,023.3, divided by two, both return 88.8, and three times the 4,112.1 Pivot Point less the settle gives 8,222.8, which the 4,155.8 high and the 4,067.0 low reproduce. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Thursday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. Only those figures, the dated 2026-11-05 row of the provider's daily record, Thursday's 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Thursday's card, which was set at Wednesday's settle and covers the whole session from the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The 30-minute bars run from that reopen to the bar that opened at 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, labelled in Eastern standard time; each timed statement here names the bar in which a price first traded.
A partial early row of the reopened Friday session in the provider's daily record is excluded from every count, average and grade. Wednesday's 2026-11-04 row has been revised since our Thursday outlook: volume now reads 232,561 contracts against the preliminary 226,987, and open interest 264,948, which that outlook listed as not yet reported; Wednesday's prices are unchanged. Thursday's open interest was not yet reported, so none is stated. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 259 completed sessions through Thursday and rounded once to the 0.1 tick; the oscillators and range measures are cited as published, read at 6:25 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The dollar index's percent change, the volume and open interest changes and the fund's implied move as a percent are computed from the stated figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Thursday outlook covers the December WTI contract. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
Monday’s follow-up outlook for gold, written after Friday’s close, is here.
