Gold Futures 4,073.0: Long 4,030 to 4,040 for Thursday

At 12:30 AM ET on Wednesday, December gold opened a 30-minute bar at 3,967.8 and closed it at 4,008.6. That 40.8 point bar was the largest gain of any half hour in the session. It carried the contract through the 3,975 to 3,985 short band we had set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday. The contract settled at 4,073.0 at 1:30 PM ET, up 132.6 points, or 3.37 percent.

It was the largest one-session point gain since 08/05/26 and the highest settle since 10/27/26. Wednesday made a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday. The dollar index eased to 101.57, the ten-year yield to 4.89 percent, and silver rose 5.08 percent. Thursday's primary setup turns long, from 4,030 to 4,040, just above the Pivot Point at 4,027.5. It sits 33.0 to 43.0 points beneath the settle. It needs a pullback.

Wednesday's rally ran through the 3,975 to 3,985 short band in the 12:30 AM ET bar

In Wednesday’s outlook we set a short from 3,975 to 3,985 at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, four hours into Wednesday's session, with a stop at 4,005 and targets at 3,955, 3,930 and an extended 3,905. The contract printed 3,948.4 then. Wednesday's bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-04 row of the provider's daily record, opened at 3,940.8 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. It marked a low of 3,928.2 and a high of 4,081.2 and settled at 4,073.0.

We grade from 10:15 PM ET forward. Earlier bars came before the card existed. The 3,928.2 low in the 7:30 PM ET bar and the 3,974.4 high of the 8:30 PM ET bar are context only. The 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time. It traded from 3,937.0 to 3,950.8, beneath the band. Its low sat beneath the 3,955 first target, and the order inside that bar is unknown.

The band traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar. That bar opened at 3,967.8, 7.2 beneath the band, and ran to 4,020.3. The high went through the band and 15.3 through the 4,005 stop. The 30-minute bars do not show the sequence inside it. It closed at 4,008.6, 3.6 above the stop. No fill and no result is asserted.

The first target printed first. Lows at or beneath 3,955 came in the 10:30 PM ET, 11:00 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET bars, all before any band print, so they carry no result. After the 12:30 AM ET bar no bar went lower than 4,006.9. The 3,930 and 3,905 targets never traded from 10:15 PM ET on. The 3,930 level traded only in the 7:30 PM ET bar, before the card.

Both of the card's tests went against it. Acceptance above the band, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 3,985, came with the 12:30 AM ET close of 4,008.6 and the 1:00 AM ET close of 4,027.9. The settle finished 69.3 above the 4,003.7 invalidation line. We grade the card as written: invalidated.

The macro override named a services survey read as reducing the chance of a rate increase, or a further decline in the dollar. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57 against 101.87, lower on the day. The services survey read 54.5 against a forecast of 54.8, per the news-feed calendar. The review does not read that survey either way.

The path call missed. Our Wednesday outlook weighted a rebound toward Pivot R1 at 3,980.0 that stalls beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,003.7. It ranked that above a sustained recovery through the 4,001.6 crossing price. The recovery came instead. Our alternative named a settle above 4,003.7 bringing the 4,018.0 retracement and Pivot R2 at 4,019.7 into play. Both traded in the 12:30 AM ET bar. Pivot R3 at 4,057.6 followed in the 4:00 AM ET bar.

Our range work missed at the top. Wednesday's 4,081.2 high went 61.2 above the 4,020 top of the high-range case. It went 31.2 above three deviations resistance at 4,050.0 and 59.0 above the 4,022.2 top of the average-true-range envelope. The settle sat 83.0 above the 3,990 top of the most likely case.

Every session band broke higher. From the 10:00 PM ET bar to 3:00 AM ET the contract traded from 3,937.0 to 4,039.3, 64.3 above the 3,975 top of the night band. London traded from 4,030.9 to 4,062.2, wholly above its 3,905 to 3,975 band. The morning ran 4,038.0 to 4,078.9 against 3,890 to 3,990. The afternoon ran 4,066.0 to 4,081.2 against the same band.

One row anchors the score. The dated 2026-11-04 row reads 3,940.8, 4,081.2, 3,928.2 and 4,073.0 on 226,987 contracts, and the review states the same. Wednesday's open interest was not yet reported. Tuesday's 2026-11-03 row was revised. It now carries 163,000 contracts against the preliminary 157,136 our Wednesday outlook carried. Its open interest reads 268,217, which that outlook listed as not yet reported.

Two legs up, and the levels around 4,030 to 4,040

The advance came in two legs. The overnight leg turned higher after the 3,928.2 low in the 7:30 PM ET bar. The 8:00 PM ET bar rose 22.6, from 3,940.0 to 3,962.6. Then the 12:30 AM ET bar added 40.8 and took the contract above 4,000. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the range ran 3,928.2 to 4,039.3.

Then it rested. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract held between 4,030.9 and 4,062.2. The 9:00 AM ET bar fell 13.4, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 9:30 AM ET bar opened at 4,043.7.

The second leg came late in the morning. The 11:30 AM ET bar rose 25.3 to 4,076.8, the highest 30-minute close of the session. It coincided with crude's 11:30 AM ET decline of 3.31, per the review; the series does not establish that any headline caused a particular move. The 1:00 PM ET bar made the 4,081.2 high and closed at 4,073.1. The settle was fixed at 1:30 PM ET at 4,073.0. After it, the bars held between 4,066.0 and 4,078.1. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 4,072.2, 0.8 beneath the settle.

The bar itself was wide. Its 153.0 point range was 1.91 times the 14-day average daily range of 79.9. The settle finished at 94.6 percent of it, 144.8 above the low and 8.2 beneath the high. The body ran 132.2 points above the 3,940.8 open, which sat 0.4 above Tuesday's settle. The high cleared Tuesday's 3,981.7 by 99.5. The low held 24.1 above Tuesday's 3,904.1. Only 10/30, at 158.9 points, had a wider range in ten sessions.

Buyers carried it in one block. The four-hour bars closed at 3,945.4, 4,037.3, 4,057.0, 4,046.8, 4,071.7 and 4,072.2. The four-hour bar from 10:00 PM ET did most of the work, 92.1 points from 3,945.2 to 4,037.3. The one from 6:00 AM ET gave back 9.8. The swing lows have stepped up since 10/30: 3,879.3, then 3,889.0 on Monday, 3,904.1 on Tuesday and 3,928.2 on Wednesday. The high also cleared Monday's 3,980.8. Wednesday's gain undid Friday's 132.5 point decline in one session.

Resistance starts close. The 1:00 PM ET close of 4,073.1 sits 0.1 above the settle. The 4,074.6 settle of 10/27, the 4,076.8 close of the 11:30 AM ET bar and the 4,078.1 post-settle high follow. Wednesday's 4,081.2 high sits 0.5 beneath the 4,081.7 high of 10/29. The 4,087.8 price at which the 3-day and 10-day crossover stalls, the 20-day average at 4,090.0 and Tuesday's 20-day of 4,093.3 come next.

Above that sits the first test the review names. The published target price at 4,102.6, the 4,103.6 retracement from the four-week high and the 4,113.5 projection for a 50 percent 14-day relative strength form a band. Pivot R1 at 4,126.7 sits 53.7 above the settle. One standard deviation resistance at 4,142.8 and the 4,159.9 average-true-range mark follow. Then two deviations at 4,171.8, Pivot R2 at 4,180.5, the 4,184.3 crossing price of the 40-day and three deviations at 4,194.0.

The rest is distant. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low sits at 4,213.8. The provider publishes 4,242.3 as the one-month high. The 50-day at 4,253.0, the 100-day at 4,257.3 and Pivot R3 at 4,279.7 follow, with the 200-day at 4,579.3 far above.

Support starts at the settle. The 4,072.7 price at which the 18-day average would be crossed sits 0.3 beneath it. The 4,072.2 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar is next. The 4,066.0 post-settle low and the 4,062.2 high of the pre-open hours come before the 4,060.8 retracement of the four-week range. The 10/28 settle of 4,051.6, which left the 5-day window on Wednesday, sits 21.4 beneath the settle. The 4,049.8 projection for a 50 percent raw stochastic sits 23.2 beneath it.

Then the band. The 9:30 AM ET open at 4,043.7 sits 3.7 above it. Inside 4,030 to 4,040 sit the 4,039.3 overnight high, the 4,031.4 settle of 10/29 and the 4,030.9 pre-open low. The Pivot Point at 4,027.5 sits 2.5 beneath the band. The 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low, the 4,009.7 crossing price of the 9-day and the 9-day average at 4,009.5 follow. The 4,008.6 close of the 12:30 AM ET bar and one standard deviation support at 4,003.2 close the group.

Deeper down sit the 3,986.1 average-true-range mark and the 5-day average at 3,982.7. Tuesday's 3,981.7 high, Monday's 3,980.8 high and Tuesday's 5-day of 3,978.4 follow. Two deviations support at 3,974.2 and Pivot S1 at 3,973.7 sit 0.5 apart. Monday's 3,969.6 settle, the 3,967.8 open of the 12:30 AM ET bar and three deviations support at 3,952.0 come next.

The day's base is lower still. Wednesday's 3,940.8 open, Tuesday's 3,940.4 settle and the 3,928.2 low lead into Tuesday's 3,904.1 low and the 10/30 settle of 3,898.9. Monday's 3,889.0 low sits above the 3,879.3 low of 10/30, which the provider publishes as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month low. Pivot S2 at 3,874.5 and Pivot S3 at 3,820.7 are the extended references.

The averages split around the settle. It sits 90.3 above the 5-day at 3,982.7 and 63.5 above the 9-day at 4,009.5. It sits 17.0 beneath the 20-day at 4,090.0, 180.0 beneath the 50-day at 4,253.0, 184.3 beneath the 100-day at 4,257.3 and 506.3 beneath the 200-day at 4,579.3. The 5-day rose 4.3 from 3,978.4 as Wednesday's settle replaced the 10/28 settle of 4,051.6. The 20-day fell 3.4 from 4,093.3. Older settlements explain the order. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 4,361.7, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 4,261.7 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 4,901.2. The February contract's premium over December widened to 33.8 from 32.1.

Momentum sits near the midline. Relative strength reads 50.98 on the 9-day, 46.86 on the 14-day and 45.20 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 88.89 percent on the 9-day, 56.79 percent on the 14-day and 53.36 percent on the 20-day. The 14-day %K at 33.72 percent sits 11.49 above %D at 22.23 percent. Sellers still lead on direction. On the 9-day, negative direction at 25.06 leads positive at 18.62 with the ADX at 39.97; on the 14-day, 25.42 leads 16.43 with the ADX at 31.56. Historic volatility reads 28.75 percent on the 9-day and 24.87 percent on the 14-day. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.

The composite lags. Published for Thursday, it reads "88% SELL", with strength "Weak" and direction "Weakening". The prior session and a week ago also read "88% SELL"; a month ago it read "72% SELL". The short-term group reads "Average: 60% SELL", the medium-term "Average: 100% SELL" and the long-term "Average: 100% SELL". The trend composite reads "SELL". In the review's words, the composite lags a one-day reversal of this size.

Over five sessions the contract is up 21.4 from the 4,051.6 settle of 10/28, which the provider also publishes as a 0.53 percent five-day change. Settlements over six sessions ran 4,051.6, 4,031.4, 3,898.9, 3,969.6, 3,940.4 and 4,073.0. Changes over ten sessions ran minus 89.6, minus 52.5, plus 30.5, plus 36.2, minus 23.0, minus 20.2, minus 132.5, plus 70.7, minus 29.2 and plus 132.6. Daily ranges ran 127.5, 61.1, 53.1, 77.8, 60.3, 65.4, 158.9, 91.8, 77.6 and 153.0 points.

The 14-day average true range stands at 86.9 points, with the 14-day average daily range at 79.9. The 9-day figures are 89.4 and 88.8, and the 20-day 87.6 and 76.6. One average true range either side of the settle spans 3,986.1 to 4,159.9. The deviation bands are built from five settlements. They run 4,003.2 to 4,142.8, 3,974.2 to 4,171.8 and 3,952.0 to 4,194.0, and describe dispersion, not intraday reach.

A softer dollar, lower yields and a 5.08 percent rise in silver

The dollar eased. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57 against 101.87, down 0.30 or 0.29 percent. The ten-year yield index fell 6 basis points to 4.89 percent from 4.95 percent. Gold rose on a day both fell; the moves coincided, and no series here separates their effects. Real-yield data were not available for this review.

Metals rose together. Silver's December contract rose 5.08 percent to 52.282, and the gold-to-silver ratio narrowed to 77.90 from 79.20. December crude fell 8.29 percent to 88.12, and Brent's January contract fell 8.67 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 1.58 percent. The volatility index closed lower, at 16.61 against 20.83.

Commentary ran alongside. At 1:15 PM ET the news feed's currency coverage, in its commentary on the US midterm election results, carried a headline that gold had reclaimed 4,000 as the dollar weakened. That is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. An investment-bank note carried by the feed described the dollar weakening alongside renewed weakness in technology shares, also attributed and unconfirmed. Neither is a measured cause.

Other reports crossed the feed. At 1:22 PM ET it carried a regional press report that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday. At 1:45 PM ET it carried a Treasury statement on sanctions. Investment-bank notes carried by the feed also commented on the US midterm election results. These are reports carried by the feeds, not events confirmed for this review, and none is offered as a cause.

The data were mixed. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against a forecast of 67 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The services purchasing managers' survey, released at 10:00 AM ET, read 54.5 against 54.8, with prices paid at 73.0 against 74.6, per the same calendar. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed. The euro-area flash inflation estimate read 4.0 percent, per the news-feed calendar.

No structural demand figure was available. Central-bank purchase data and fund holdings were not available for this review, and neither was the weekly positioning report, so none is asserted. The news feed's currency coverage carried commentary that the Chinese central bank had slowed the yuan's gains; that is commentary, not a gold-specific flow. Wednesday's December volume was 226,987 contracts against a revised 163,000 on Tuesday, up 63,987 or 39.3 percent. Open interest stood at 268,217 on Tuesday 11/03 against 265,746 on Monday 11/02, up 2,471. Wednesday's open interest was not yet reported.

The fund console comes next. The gold fund's options console was read at 6:18 PM ET on Wednesday, after the close, with a page date of 2026-11-04; every figure below is that evening read. The fund is a proxy, used qualitatively only and never translated into futures prices. It tracks bullion at a different scale with a fee drag and has no clean basis to the December contract. The console carried Tuesday's 359.28 as its previous close. It showed a current price of 372.03, up 3.55 percent, a console reading, not a settlement.

Modeled call gamma read minus 406.61 million against put gamma of minus 523.50 million on the proxy. At that read aggregate gamma was negative on both sides; modeled gamma on a proxy is a non-directional lens. Call volume of 116.73 thousand against put volume of 76.70 thousand and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.5 show calls ahead of puts in the day's volume and open interest, an observation only. Options volume says nothing about direction or demand. One-month implied volatility read 22.79 percent against realised volatility of 21.68 percent, 1.11 points apart. The implied-volatility rank read 19.35 percent and the skew rank 23.60 percent. The options-implied move was 5.17 dollars, about 1.39 percent of the 372.03 current price.

The console lists the fund's largest gamma concentration at 380, a secondary dealer level at 370, the call side ceiling at 400 and the put side support base at 345. Both comparison figures were read after the close, at 6:18 PM ET. The console price sat 12.75 dollars above the previous close, above the 370 dealer level and beneath the 380 concentration, while the options-implied move read 5.17 dollars. Because the implied move was read after the session, there is no reading of what options priced before Wednesday's advance, and no inference about that is drawn. The console's high and low volatility point fields are excluded, and no fund figure sets a futures level here.

The trade map for Thursday

The primary setup is a long. Its band runs 4,030 to 4,040, 33.0 to 43.0 points beneath the settle, and holds the 4,031.4 settle of 10/29, the 4,030.9 pre-open low and the 4,039.3 overnight high. The Pivot Point at 4,027.5 sits 2.5 beneath it. The settle sits above the 5-day and 9-day averages and at 94.6 percent of the range. The dollar index and the ten-year yield eased. The long needs a pullback into the band first.

Risk sits beneath the retracement. The 4,010 stop sits 8.0 beneath the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low and 6.8 above one standard deviation support at 4,003.2. It also sits 0.3 above the 4,009.7 crossing price of the 9-day. Targets step up. The first, 4,060, sits 0.8 beneath the 4,060.8 retracement and 13.0 beneath the settle. Then comes 4,085, 12.0 above the settle, 3.8 above the 4,081.2 high and 2.8 beneath the 4,087.8 stall price. The extended 4,110 sits 6.4 above the 4,103.6 retracement and 3.5 beneath the 4,113.5 relative-strength projection. The review names the case against the trade. The composite still reads "88% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems. So the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that pullbacks toward the Pivot Point are bought, with no measured edge behind it.

The night session runs from the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET Thursday. As of 6:23 PM ET the reopened session had traded between 4,067.0 and 4,075.4, per the review; those are live prints, not a settle. The Japanese services survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The review's night bias is neutral to higher above the Pivot Point, with an expected band of roughly 4,040 to 4,095. Its bottom meets the band's 4,040 top.

European trading opens at 3:00 AM ET, with European central bank speakers listed from then by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The UK central bank decision is listed for 7:00 AM ET, with a forecast rise to 4 percent from 3.75 percent, also unconfirmed. The review's London band runs roughly 4,035 to 4,100, with a neutral bias. Its bottom sits at the band's 4,035 midpoint.

Data arrive at 8:30 AM ET. Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled then, as the calendar lists it. Weekly jobless claims are listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Federal Reserve speakers are listed at 8:50 AM ET and 9:10 AM ET, unconfirmed. In the review's judgment the 8:30 AM ET US data and the 7:00 AM ET UK decision are the first-order events for gold, as tests of the dollar's decline. The morning band runs roughly 4,020 to 4,110. The setup band's 4,030 bottom sits 10.0 above its lower edge.

Gold settles at 1:30 PM ET, fixing the reference ahead of Friday's employment report. Remarks by the head of the European central bank are listed for 11:00 AM ET and 1:00 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The afternoon band runs roughly 4,030 to 4,110. Another Federal Reserve speaker is listed for 7:00 PM ET, unconfirmed.

For the full session the review sets a low-range case of 4,030 to 4,100, a mid-range case, the most likely, of 4,000 to 4,120 and a high-range case of 3,970 to 4,150. The low-range bottom meets the band bottom. The high-range case's 3,970 bottom sits 16.1 beneath the 3,986.1 bottom of the average-true-range envelope; its 4,150 top sits 9.9 beneath the 4,159.9 top. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, and a Federal Reserve official is scheduled to speak at 12:15 PM ET that day, as the calendar lists them. The next policy statement is listed for 2:00 PM ET on December 9 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 4,027.5 and Pivot R1 at 4,126.7. Within it, a pullback toward the 4,049.8 to 4,027.5 band that holds above the Pivot Point is weighted above a renewed decline through one standard deviation support at 4,003.2. No measured frequency backs it. In the review's interpretation, with the 20-day at 4,090.0 sitting 17.0 above the settle and the composite at "88% SELL", the 4,081.2 to 4,103.6 band is the first test above. That band is 22.4 points wide.

The alternative that would invalidate the reading is a settle beneath 4,003.2. That could bring Pivot S1 at 3,973.7 into play. A move through the 4,103.6 retracement before any pullback could instead bring Pivot R1 at 4,126.7 into play, without the entry the setup needs.

Wednesday ran 153.0 points in one session. Thursday's band asks for 33.0 of them back.

The complete data picture

Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.

Sources and methodology

This outlook is built from our session review of the December gold contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Wednesday's close on November 4, 2026 for the Thursday, November 5, 2026 session. Wednesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder for Thursday: Pivot R3 at 4,279.7 less Pivot S3 at 3,820.7, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 4,180.5 less Pivot S2 at 3,874.5, divided by two, both return 153.0, and three times the 4,027.5 Pivot Point less the settle gives 8,009.5, which the 4,081.2 high and the 3,928.2 low reproduce to within the published rounding at 8,009.4. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Wednesday bar carry the same open, extremes and settle. Only those figures, the dated 2026-11-04 row of the provider's daily record, Wednesday's 30-minute bars and the review's statements are used to grade Wednesday's card, from 10:15 PM ET Tuesday, when it was set. The 30-minute bars run from the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the bar that opened at 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, labelled in Eastern standard time; each timed statement here names the bar in which a price first traded.

A partial early row of the reopened Thursday session in the provider's daily record is excluded from every count, average and grade. Tuesday's 2026-11-03 row has been revised since our Wednesday outlook: volume now reads 163,000 contracts against the preliminary 157,136, and open interest 268,217, which that outlook listed as not yet reported; Tuesday's prices are unchanged. Wednesday's open interest was not yet reported, so none is stated. The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series of 259 completed sessions through Wednesday and rounded once to the 0.1 tick; the oscillators and range measures are cited as published, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, and the composite strings are quoted verbatim. The gold fund is a proxy used qualitatively; its gamma figures are modeled, its high and low volatility point fields were not used, and no fund level is translated into a futures price. The dollar index's percent change, the volume and open interest changes and the fund's implied move as a percent are computed from the stated figures. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.

Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the crude oil contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the December WTI contract, which settled at 88.12 on Wednesday, down 8.29 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.

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