At 11:30 PM ET on Tuesday, 75 minutes after we set Wednesday's card, the December Nasdaq-100 contract rose into the 27,840 to 27,880 short band. It kept going. The next 30-minute bar, which opened at 12:00 AM ET, reached 28,139.25, through the 28,000 stop, and closed at 28,105.25, the second consecutive close above the band. Neither of the two deeper targets traded.
Then the session turned twice more. The contract settled at 28,566.75 on Wednesday, up 261.00 points or 0.92 percent, after a 1,353.25 point range, the widest since 06/09/26. It was an outside day. Thursday's card points the other way again. It is a short from 28,640 to 28,680, above the settle.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 28,566.75 on Wednesday, up 261.00 points, after an outside day between 27,615.75 and 28,969.00, and back above the 200-day average after two settles beneath it. Scored from 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, when it was set, Wednesday's short band at 27,840 to 27,880 first traded in the 11:30 PM ET bar. The 12:00 AM ET bar traded through the 28,000 stop. The second and third targets never traded, and the settle finished 487.25 points above the card's Pivot S1 invalidation. No fill or result is asserted. The primary setup for Thursday is a short from 28,640 to 28,680, a band above the settle that holds the December equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level, stop 28,800, targets 28,520, 28,380 and an extended 28,240, all beneath the settle. Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them.
Wednesday’s card: the band traded at 11:30 PM ET, and the stop one bar later
In Wednesday’s outlook we set a short from 27,840 to 27,880, stop 28,000, at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, four hours into Wednesday's session. Its targets sat at 27,720, 27,580 and an extended 27,440. The contract traded at 27,678.50 when the levels were set. Wednesday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-11-04 settlement row, opened at 28,410.00 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, made a high of 28,969.00 and a low of 27,615.75, and settled at 28,566.75.
Only bars from 10:15 PM ET count. The 8:00 PM ET, 8:30 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars had traded inside the band. Those prints came before the card existed. The 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time. Its range, 27,615.75 to 27,756.00, held the 27,720 first target and stopped 84.00 points beneath the band; the order inside that bar is unknown.
The next two bars stayed low. The 10:30 PM ET and 11:00 PM ET bars traded beneath the first target, and their highs of 27,768.75 and 27,777.00 stopped 71.25 and 63.00 points short of the band. Then the 11:30 PM ET bar rose 255.50 points. It reached 27,956.25, 76.25 above the band top and 43.75 beneath the stop, and closed at 27,940.50. Its low of 27,634.25 also sat beneath the first target. The order within that bar is unknown.
The stop went next. The bar that opened at 12:00 AM ET reached 28,139.25, through the 28,000 stop and through Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, the card's settle invalidation level. Its 28,105.25 close made two consecutive 30-minute closes above 27,880, the acceptance the card defined as removing the edge. That bar never traded back into the band. Its low of 27,921.00 held 41.00 points above it.
The deeper targets never traded. From the 10:30 PM ET bar onward the lowest low was 27,634.25, 54.25 points above the 27,580 second target. The session low of 27,615.75, in the straddling bar, sat 35.75 above it and 175.75 above the 27,440 third target. No fill and no result are asserted.
The settle closed the matter. The card's invalidation, a settle above Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, was met by 487.25 points, and the settle sat 566.75 above the stop. The macro override had named a rebound in semiconductors at the cash open, or a reversal of the overnight selling, with Pivot S1 as its reference. That level traded in the 12:00 AM ET bar. This article ties no price move to any headline.
The 30-minute series also scores each range over its own window, from 10:15 PM ET. None held. Every scenario and session band was exceeded on the upside. The high-range case of 27,150 to 28,250 came closest, its top 719.00 points beneath the 28,969.00 high. The night band of 27,550 to 27,900, scored to 3:00 AM ET, held the night's 27,634.25 low by 84.25. Its top was exceeded by 386.50, at the 28,286.50 high of the 2:00 AM ET bar.
Later windows sat wholly above their bands. London's 27,500 to 27,950 compared with a window that traded between 28,252.50 and 28,662.00, its low 302.50 above the band top. The morning band of 27,400 to 28,000 met a window of 28,405.00 to 28,969.00. From 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET the contract traded between 28,510.50 and 28,776.25, all above the afternoon band of 27,350 to 28,080.
The base case, an analyst judgment, held the contract between one standard deviation support at 27,486.09 and Pivot S1 at 28,079.50, with a rebound toward Pivot S2 at 27,853.25 that stalls beneath Pivot S1. The rebound came; the stall did not. The ranked second case, a settle above Pivot S1 that brings the Pivot Point at 28,264.50 back into play, is the one that printed. The Pivot Point first traded in the 2:00 AM ET bar. The third case, a move beneath 27,486.09, never came, and the lowest low after the card held 148.16 points above it.
An outside day: a 1,353.25 point range, a 402.25 point fade and a settle back above the 200-day
Wednesday ran in three phases. The overnight hours fell from the 28,512.00 high of the 6:30 PM ET bar to the 27,615.75 low in the 10:00 PM ET bar. The 7:00 PM ET bar fell 173.50 points and the 8:00 PM ET bar 302.75, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar. Commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results ran through those hours. The two coincided in time, and the series does not establish that the commentary caused a particular bar.
Recovery began at 11:30 PM ET. Between 3:00 AM ET and the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 28,252.50 and 28,662.00. The 9:30 AM ET bar then rose 381.00 points, from 28,429.75 to 28,810.75, the largest gain of any bar. The 10:00 AM ET bar made the 28,969.00 high and closed at 28,816.75.
Then the fade. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 187.75 points. Through the rest of the cash session the bars held between 28,474.00 and 28,792.00, the latter the high of the 11:30 AM ET bar, which rose 240.50. The settle of 28,566.75 matched the 3:30 PM ET close, 402.25 points beneath the high. After the settle, the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,646.75, 80.00 points up.
The bar is wide on both ends. Its high topped Tuesday's 28,449.50 by 519.50 points, and its low undercut Tuesday's 28,038.25 by 422.50. The settle finished at 70.3 percent of the range. That range was 1.95 times the 14-day average daily range of 695.70. The low was the lowest since the 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26 and is now the one-month and 13-week low. The settle is the highest since 10/29/26, when the contract settled at 29,562.00.
The pivot ladder rests on that bar. The overview's open, high and low already belong to the reopened Thursday session, so the review takes Wednesday's range from the settlement record and the published ladder. Pivot R3 at 30,505.17 less Pivot S3 at 26,445.42, divided by three, returns 1,353.25. So does Pivot R2 at 29,737.08 less Pivot S2 at 27,030.58, divided by two. Three times the 28,383.83 Pivot Point less the settle gives 56,584.74, the sum of the high and the low within published rounding.
Two settles now run higher. The last six read 29,979.50, 29,562.00, 28,534.00, 28,127.50, 28,305.75 and 28,566.75. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,412.75 points, or 4.71 percent, from the 29,979.50 settle of 10/28. The 31,616.50 52-week high sits 3,049.75 points up, with the settle 9.65 percent beneath it.
Resistance starts close. The 5-day average at 28,619.25 sits 52.50 points up. The 28,629.58 threshold equivalent, the 28,646.75 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 28,664.58 flip equivalent follow, and Thursday's band sits among them. The 28,792.00 high of the 11:30 AM ET bar and the 28,920.38 projection for a 50 percent raw stochastic come next, with Wednesday's 28,969.00 high above them.
Higher up, the 9-day crossing price at 29,040.59 and the 9-day average at 29,049.25 sit 8.66 apart. One standard deviation resistance at 29,123.28, the 29,129.58 concentration equivalent, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,144.04 and Pivot R1 at 29,151.92 lie within 28.64 points. The one-ATR line at 29,234.59 and two deviations at 29,353.80 follow. The 18-day crossing price at 29,441.10 and three deviations at 29,530.69 close the ladder. Beyond sit the 29,616.13 four-week midpoint, the 20-day at 29,673.75, Pivot R2, the 100-day at 29,891.75, the 50-day at 29,993.00, Pivot R3 and the 52-week high.
Support sits in tiers. The 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88, the 200-day average at 28,486.75 and the published target price at 28,478.39 lie within 10.49 points, 77.87 to 88.36 beneath the settle. That is the first tier. Tuesday's 28,449.50 high, the 28,398.53 projection for a 30 percent raw stochastic and the Pivot Point at 28,383.83 come next. Tuesday's 28,305.75 settle, the 28,193.68 crossover stall level and the 28,129.58 equivalent of the NDX 28,000 key strike sit deeper.
Further down sit Tuesday's 28,038.25 low, one standard deviation support at 28,010.22 and the one-ATR line at 27,898.91. Pivot S1 at 27,798.67 and two deviations at 27,779.70 lie 18.97 apart. The 27,629.58 put-base equivalent, Wednesday's 27,615.75 low and three deviations at 27,602.81 sit within 26.77 points. The 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26, Pivot S2 at 27,030.58 and Pivot S3 at 26,445.42 are the extended references.
The averages split around the settle. It sits 80.00 points above the 200-day at 28,486.75, after Monday and Tuesday settled beneath it. It sits 52.50 beneath the 5-day at 28,619.25, 482.50 beneath the 9-day at 29,049.25 and 1,107.00 beneath the 20-day at 29,673.75. The 100-day at 29,891.75 sits 1,325.00 up and the 50-day at 29,993.00 sits 1,426.25 up. The review computed the averages from 259 completed daily settlements and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick.
One caveat sits under the 200-day. Its window starts on 01/22/26 and holds 48 sessions, through 04/27/26, with no recorded volume. They are deferred-contract records from before the December contract became active. So the 200-day rests on thin history. The 5-day fell from Tuesday's 28,901.75 as the 10/28 settle of 29,979.50 left the window.
The order of the longer averages comes from their older settlements. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 30,205.83, above the 20-day, so the 20-day sits beneath the 50-day. The 50 older ones in the 100-day window averaged 29,790.74, and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 27,081.44. Both run lower. Thursday's crossing prices are 29,040.59 for the 9-day average and 29,441.10 for the 18-day.
Momentum stays low on its scale. Relative strength reads 36.17 on the 9-day, 37.73 on the 14-day and 39.96 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 37.12 percent, 36.45 percent and 24.70 percent on the 9, 14 and 20-day windows. The 14-day %K at 16.53 percent sits 4.17 points above %D at 12.36 percent. Sellers still lead. On the 9-day, negative direction at 27.12 tops positive at 16.90 by 10.22, with the ADX at 36.63; on the 14-day, 27.56 tops 16.68 by 10.88, with the ADX at 27.87.
Historic volatility reads 23.87 percent on the 9-day and 25.45 percent on the 14-day. These readings are as published, read at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, and may already reflect the reopened session's price. A composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday sits at 88 percent sell, unchanged from the prior session. Strength and direction are both described as average. A week ago it read 24 percent buy. A month ago, 88 percent buy. The short and medium-horizon groups average 100 percent sell and the long group 33 percent sell, and the trend composite reads sell.
One average true range either side of the settle spans 27,898.91 to 29,234.59, on the 14-day figure of 667.84. The 9-day average true and daily ranges read 734.35 and 685.39, the 20-day 624.73 and 643.74. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 28,010.22 to 29,123.28, 27,779.70 to 29,353.80 and 27,602.81 to 29,530.69. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges, from 10/22, read 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25 and 1,353.25 points.
A 0.91 percent cash gain, a 3.13 percent chip decline and results after Wednesday’s close
The broad market led on Wednesday. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,437.17, up 256.91 points or 0.91 percent. The S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent and the Dow industrials 3.03 percent. The semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent to 10,268.65. The contract's 402.25 point fade from the 10:00 AM ET high to the settle coincided with that decline, and no series here separates their effects.
Commentary filled in the picture, all of it attributed. At 8:36 AM ET the news feed carried an investment-bank sentiment note that described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence names. Investment-bank commentary carried by the feed described the same rotation, and the press wrap carried by the feed described stocks and bonds rallying as oil fell. These are attributed commentary and unconfirmed. At 9:39 AM ET the feed carried an investment-bank cut to its price target for a processor and graphics-chip maker.
Company news ran through the day, per the news feed. At 8:26 AM ET the feed carried record orders for a large internet-platform company's first euro bond. At 2:45 PM ET and 2:46 PM ET the feed carried reports that a consumer-electronics maker had cut internal artificial-intelligence usage budgets. At 4:03 PM ET the feed carried a 25 billion dollar bond offering by a large software company. This article ties no price move to any of them.
Results came after the bell. At 4:00 PM ET the news feed carried a mobile-chip designer's fiscal fourth-quarter results, adjusted earnings of 2.17 dollars a share against 2.16 and revenue of 10.44 billion dollars against 10.12 billion. Per the news feed, its first-quarter guidance of 2.15 to 2.35 dollars has a 2.25 midpoint, 0.07 beneath the 2.32 estimate. A chip-design licensor reported adjusted earnings of 0.52 dollars against 0.47, per the news feed. No move is attributed to either.
Yields eased. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.89 percent against 4.95 percent on Tuesday. The services purchasing managers' survey, released at 10:00 AM ET, read 54.5 against 54.8, and the private payrolls estimate 86 thousand against 67 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. The trade report, released at 8:30 AM ET as the calendar lists it, showed a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed.
Reports on US and Iran diplomacy also ran. At 1:22 PM ET the news feed carried a regional press report that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday. That is a report carried by the feed, not a confirmed event, and no move is attributed to it.
Elsewhere, December WTI crude fell 8.29 percent to 88.12 and December gold rose 3.37 percent to 4,073.0. The dollar index's daily record eased to 101.57 from 101.87. The volatility index closed at 16.61 against 20.83. Each move is reported on its own. None is presented here as the cause of another, or of the index's gain.
The cash close sits beneath two positioning lines. The dataset's reference prices are Tuesday's closes: NDX 28,180 corresponds to Tuesday's 28,180.26 cash close, and QQQ 685 to the fund console's previous close of 685.34. Against Wednesday's 28,437.17 close, the index sits 937.17 points above the 27,500 put side support base. It sits 62.83 beneath the 28,500 modeled volatility threshold and 97.83 beneath the 28,535 modeled gamma-flip level. The largest gamma concentration at 29,000 sits 562.83 up, and the call side ceiling at 29,675 sits 1,237.83 up.
The index model's gamma tilt reads 0.831, its gamma notional minus 4.436 million dollars and its 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.067, all model outputs. The dataset lists 29,000, 28,000, 29,675 and 30,000 as key index strikes.
On the QQQ proxy the largest gamma concentration sits at 700, the put side support base at 680, the modeled volatility threshold at 714, the modeled gamma-flip level at 715 and the call side ceiling at 760. Those are proxy levels. The fund's gamma notional reads minus 982.497 million dollars and its gamma tilt 0.548, proxy model outputs. The console, read at 6:18 PM ET, carried Tuesday's 685.34 as its previous close and a console price of 693.55, up 1.20 percent. The review treats that as a console reading. Call gamma reads minus 1.25 billion against put gamma of minus 2.29 billion. One-month implied volatility reads 26.95 percent against realised volatility of 22.26 percent, 4.69 points apart. The implied-volatility rank reads 82.55 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.23.
The basis widened to 129.58 points, the 28,566.75 settle less the 28,437.17 cash close, from 125.49 on Tuesday. The review converts five positioning levels at it. The NDX 27,500 put side support base becomes 27,629.58 and the NDX 28,000 key strike 28,129.58. The modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,500 becomes 28,629.58, and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,535 becomes 28,664.58. The largest gamma concentration at NDX 29,000 becomes 29,129.58. The conversions are the review's own.
In the review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, a cash close beneath the modeled threshold and the modeled gamma-flip level, with gamma notional negative on both, describes an environment in which dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. No directional read is drawn from options volume or modeled gamma. Thursday's band holds the 28,664.58 flip equivalent and sits 10.42 points above the 28,629.58 threshold equivalent.
Activity rose. Volume came to 980,905 contracts on the 2026-11-04 row, against Tuesday's 653,606 on the 2026-11-03 row, a figure revised from the 643,657 carried in Wednesday's outlook. Open interest reads 290,046 on that 2026-11-03 row, which Wednesday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 4,911 beneath the 294,957 on the 2026-11-02 row. Wednesday's open interest is not yet reported. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
The trade map for Thursday
The primary setup is a short from 28,640 to 28,680. The contract faded 402.25 points from its high to settle beneath the 5-day average. The composite reads 88 percent sell, negative direction leads on both directional systems, and the cash index closed beneath the modeled threshold and flip level. The whole band sits above the settle, its bottom 73.25 points up and its top 113.25. It holds the 28,664.58 flip equivalent, 24.58 above its bottom. It sits 10.42 above the 28,629.58 threshold equivalent and 20.75 above the 5-day average.
Then the stop. At 28,800 it sits 120 points above the band top, 8.00 above the 28,792.00 high of the 11:30 AM ET bar and 233.25 above the settle. The 28,920.38 stochastic projection sits 120.38 beyond it. All three targets sit beneath the settle. The first, 28,520, sits 46.75 beneath it and 31.12 above the 28,488.88 retracement. The second, 28,380, sits 3.83 beneath the Pivot Point. Then the extended third. At 28,240 it sits 46.32 above the 28,193.68 crossover stall.
The setup needs a rebound into the band. The broad index rose 1.58 percent, and a rotation into the contract's laggards can carry price through the band, so the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the equivalents are sold, with no measured edge behind it. Price has already been there. The 4:00 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET bars, after the settle, reached into the band, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,646.75, 6.75 above its bottom.
Now the arithmetic. From the 28,660 midpoint the risk to the stop is 140 points, 21.0 percent of the 14-day average true range of 667.84. The targets sit 140, 280 and 420 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 120 points beneath the band bottom.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 28,300 to 28,800, its top at the stop. The most likely case runs 28,100 to 28,950, its top 29.62 above the stochastic projection and 19.00 beneath Wednesday's high. The high-range case runs 27,800 to 29,150. Its bottom sits 1.33 above Pivot S1, its top 1.92 beneath Pivot R1.
Session by session, the review expects roughly 28,350 to 28,750 through the night to 3:00 AM ET, with a bias neutral to lower beneath the 28,629.58 to 28,664.58 equivalents. That top sits 70.00 above the band top and 50.00 beneath the stop. London follows from 3:00 AM ET at 28,300 to 28,750, with a neutral bias beneath the equivalents. The morning band runs 28,150 to 28,850, with the setup band in its upper half. The afternoon band is the same.
Thursday's calendar starts overnight. A Japanese services survey at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday and the Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Then the data. Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them, with weekly jobless claims listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Federal Reserve speakers at 8:50 AM ET and 9:10 AM ET and remarks by the head of the European Central Bank at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, as the calendar lists it.
The scenarios are ranked. In the review's analyst judgment the base case holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 28,383.83 and Wednesday's 28,969.00 high. Within it, rebounds into the 28,629.58 to 28,664.58 equivalents that stall, and a test of the 28,488.88 to 28,478.39 band, are weighted above a renewed advance through the 28,920.38 stochastic projection. No measured frequency backs it. The semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent on a day the broad index rose.
Second comes a settle above the 28,920.38 projection, which would invalidate this reading and could bring the 29,040.59 crossing price and Pivot R1 at 29,151.92 into play. Third, a move beneath the Pivot Point before any rebound could bring the 28,129.58 key strike equivalent into play without the rebound the setup needs. The band would stay untraded. In the review's judgment the first-order event on Thursday is the cash open at 9:30 AM ET, the first directional test of the semiconductor decline and of the after-hours reaction to the mobile-chip designer's results, with the 8:30 AM ET data the scheduled test of yields.
Thursday's band sits 73.25 points above the settle, and the last bar of Wednesday's session closed inside it.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Both lists are classified against the 28,566.75 settle. Thursday’s band, 28,640 to 28,680, sits above the settle and holds the 28,646.75 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 28,664.58 flip equivalent.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,566.75 on Wednesday, up 261.00 or 0.92 percent from Tuesday's settle of 28,305.75, after trading between 28,969.00 and 27,615.75, a 1,353.25 point daily range. The settle finished at 70.3 percent of the range, and the range was 1.95 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 695.70 points. Wednesday's high exceeded Tuesday's 28,449.50 by 519.50 and its low undercut Tuesday's 28,038.25 by 422.50, an outside day, and it was the second consecutive higher settle. The 1,353.25 point range is the widest since 06/09/26, the 27,615.75 low is the lowest since the 27,492.75 low of 07/30/26, and the settle is the highest since 10/29/26, when the contract settled at 29,562.00.
The session ran in three phases. The overnight hours fell from the 28,512.00 high of the 6:30 PM ET bar to the 27,615.75 low in the 10:00 PM ET bar, with the 8:00 PM ET bar alone falling 302.75 while the news feed carried commentary on the US midterm election results; the two coincided in time, and no move is attributed to that commentary. From the 11:30 PM ET bar the contract recovered, and the 9:30 AM ET bar rose 381.00, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session, before the 10:00 AM ET bar made the 28,969.00 high. The contract then gave back 402.25 from that high to the settle. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,437.17, up 0.91 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent, the Dow industrials 3.03 percent and the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent.
Investment-bank commentary carried by the news feed described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence and related names, and the press wrap carried by the feed described stocks and bonds rallying as oil fell; these are attributed commentary and unconfirmed. After the cash close the news feed carried a mobile-chip designer's results, with revenue and adjusted earnings above estimates and a first-quarter earnings range whose midpoint sat below the estimate. The contract traded at 28,646.75 at the close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, 80.00 above the settle.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday is "88% SELL" with strength "Average" and direction "Average", unchanged in level from "88% SELL" a session earlier. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 28,640 to 28,680 band, which holds the 28,664.58 futures conversion of the dataset's modeled gamma-flip level and sits 10.42 above the 28,629.58 conversion of its modeled volatility threshold, stopped at 28,800, with objectives at 28,520, 28,380 and an extended 28,240.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 28,410.00 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 104.25 above Tuesday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the high of 28,969.00 in the 10:00 AM ET bar and the low of 27,615.75 in the 10:00 PM ET bar. The 7:00 PM ET bar fell 173.50 and the 8:00 PM ET bar 302.75, and the news feed carried commentary on the US midterm election results through those hours; the two coincided, and the series does not establish that the commentary caused a particular bar.
From the 11:30 PM ET bar, which rose 255.50, the contract recovered, and between 3:00 AM ET and the 9:30 AM ET cash open it traded between 28,252.50 and 28,662.00. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 381.00 from 28,429.75 to 28,810.75, and the 10:00 AM ET bar made the 28,969.00 high and closed at 28,816.75. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 187.75, and through the rest of the cash session the 30-minute bars held between 28,474.00 and 28,792.00. The settle of 28,566.75 matched the close of the 3:30 PM ET bar, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 28,646.75 after the mobile-chip designer's results at 4:00 PM ET, carried by the news feed; no move is attributed to them.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Thursday, so Wednesday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 30,505.17 minus Pivot S3 at 26,445.42, divided by three, returns 1,353.25, and Pivot R2 at 29,737.08 minus Pivot S2 at 27,030.58, divided by two, returns 1,353.25. Three times the Pivot Point of 28,383.83 less the 28,566.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 56,584.74, which solves to a high of 28,969.00 and a low of 27,615.75 within published rounding; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 28,410.00 open, 28,969.00 high, 27,615.75 low and 28,566.75 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday was an outside day against Tuesday. Settlements over the last six sessions read 29,979.50, 29,562.00, 28,534.00, 28,127.50, 28,305.75 and 28,566.75, so the contract has risen on Tuesday and Wednesday after three lower settles. Over five sessions the contract is down 1,412.75 from the 29,979.50 settle of 10/28, which the provider also publishes as a 4.71 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 31,616.50 as the 52-week high, and the settle sits 9.65 percent beneath it. Wednesday's 27,615.75 low is now published as the one-month and 13-week low.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/22, ran 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25, 947.25, 789.50, 411.25 and 1,353.25, so Wednesday's range was the widest of the ten. In the 30-minute series the three largest gains came in the 9:30 AM ET bar, 381.00, the 11:30 PM ET bar, 255.50, and the 11:30 AM ET bar, 240.50, and the three largest declines in the 8:00 PM ET bar, 302.75, the 10:30 AM ET bar, 187.75, and the 7:00 PM ET bar, 173.50.
The published grid places the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,144.04 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 29,616.13.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Wednesday; the partial row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 5-day average stands at 28,619.25, the 9-day at 29,049.25, the 20-day at 29,673.75, the 50-day at 29,993.00, the 100-day at 29,891.75 and the 200-day at 28,486.75.
The 28,566.75 settle sits 52.50 beneath the 5-day average, 482.50 beneath the 9-day, 1,107.00 beneath the 20-day, 1,426.25 beneath the 50-day and 1,325.00 beneath the 100-day, and 80.00 above the 200-day. The contract had settled beneath its 200-day average on Monday and Tuesday and settled above it on Wednesday. The 200-day window, which starts on 01/22/26, contains 48 rows with no recorded volume between 01/22/26 and 04/27/26, deferred-contract records from before the December contract became active, so the 200-day average rests on thin history. The 5-day average fell from Tuesday's 28,901.75 as Wednesday's settle replaced the 10/28 settle of 29,979.50.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 30,205.83. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,790.74, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 27,081.44. The projection grid gives 29,040.59 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Thursday and 29,441.10 for the 18-day average.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings and were not computed here, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 36.17, the 14-day relative strength 37.73 and the 20-day relative strength 39.96.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 37.12 percent, the 14-day raw stochastic 36.45 percent and the 20-day raw stochastic 24.70 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 16.53 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 12.36 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 36.63 with the 9-day +DI at 16.90 and the 9-day -DI at 27.12, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 27.87 with the 14-day +DI at 16.68 and the 14-day -DI at 27.56, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 23.87 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 25.45 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is "88% SELL", with signal strength "Average" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "24% BUY" a week ago and "88% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "100% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 667.84 points and the 14-day average daily range at 695.70 points; the 9-day average true range is 734.35 with a 9-day average daily range of 685.39, and the 20-day average true range is 624.73 with a 20-day average daily range of 643.74. Wednesday's 1,353.25 point range was 1.95 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 667.84 from the 28,566.75 settle frames Thursday between 27,898.91 and 29,234.59. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 28,010.22 to 29,123.28 at one deviation, 27,779.70 to 29,353.80 at two and 27,602.81 to 29,530.69 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 28,566.75 settle, the first references are the 5-day average at 28,619.25, the 28,629.58 conversion of the modeled volatility threshold and the 28,664.58 conversion of the modeled gamma-flip level, with the 28,646.75 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar beside them. The 28,792.00 high of the 11:30 AM ET bar and Wednesday's 28,969.00 high bracket the next band, which holds the 28,920.38 projection for a 50 percent raw stochastic. The 29,040.59 9-day crossing price, the 9-day average at 29,049.25, one standard deviation resistance at 29,123.28, the 29,129.58 conversion of the largest gamma concentration, the 29,144.04 retracement from the four-week low, Pivot R1 at 29,151.92 and the one-ATR line at 29,234.59 are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 28,488.88 retracement from the 52-week low, the 200-day average at 28,486.75 and the published target price at 28,478.39. Tuesday's 28,449.50 high, the 28,398.53 projection for a 30 percent raw stochastic and the Pivot Point at 28,383.83 form the next band, with Tuesday's 28,305.75 settle beneath them; the 28,193.68 crossover stall and the 28,129.58 conversion of the NDX 28,000 key strike sit beneath. Tuesday's 28,038.25 low, one standard deviation support at 28,010.22, the one-ATR line at 27,898.91, Pivot S1 at 27,798.67 and two deviations at 27,779.70 are the deeper references, with the 27,629.58 conversion of the put side support base and Wednesday's 27,615.75 low beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Largest-Company Results and the AI Spending Cycle
The news feed carried at 2:45 PM ET and 2:46 PM ET reports that a consumer-electronics maker had cut internal artificial-intelligence usage budgets, at 4:03 PM ET a 25 billion dollar bond offering by a large software company and at 8:26 AM ET record orders for a large internet-platform company's first euro bond. After the cash close the news feed carried a mobile-chip designer's fiscal fourth-quarter results at 4:00 PM ET, adjusted earnings of 2.17 dollars against 2.16 and revenue of 10.44 billion against 10.12 billion, with first-quarter guidance of 2.15 to 2.35 dollars against an estimate of 2.32, and a chip-design licensor's results with adjusted earnings of 0.52 dollars against 0.47. These are company results and reports carried by the feed.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent to 10,268.65 while the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.91 percent, the S&P 500 1.58 percent and the Dow industrials 3.03 percent. The news feed carried at 8:36 AM ET an investment-bank sentiment note that described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence names, and at 9:39 AM ET an investment-bank cut to its price target for a processor and graphics-chip maker; these are attributed commentary. The contract's 402.25 point fade from the 10:00 AM ET high to the settle coincided with the semiconductor decline, and no series here separates their effects.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The ten-year yield index closed lower at 4.89 percent. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57, beneath Tuesday's 101.87. The services purchasing managers' survey released at 10:00 AM ET read 54.5 against 54.8 and the private payrolls estimate 86 thousand against 67 thousand, per the news-feed calendar. Federal Reserve speakers are listed for Thursday at 8:50 AM ET and 9:10 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.4 Diplomacy Reports
The news feed carried at 1:22 PM ET a regional press report that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday. This is a report carried by the feed, not a confirmed event, and no move is attributed to it.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed lower at 16.61, beneath Tuesday's close. December crude fell 8.29 percent and December gold rose 3.37 percent. The futures settle carried a 129.58 point basis over the 28,437.17 cash close, against 125.49 on Tuesday, both measured as the settle less the provider's cash close on the same completed session.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
Wednesday's December volume was 980,905 contracts on the 2026-11-04 row of the provider's settlement record, against 653,606 on Tuesday's 2026-11-03 row, revised from the 643,657 carried in Wednesday's outlook. Wednesday's open interest is not yet reported; Tuesday's reads 290,046 on the 2026-11-03 row. No weekly positioning report figure is carried.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
This review uses the QQQ fund and the Nasdaq-100 index columns of the dealer-positioning dataset as the positioning proxy for the December contract; the dataset tracks the index and the fund, and the futures translation below is this review's. The dataset read for this section, the edition timed 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, uses Tuesday's closes as its reference prices: NDX 28,180 corresponds to Tuesday's 28,180.26 cash close and QQQ 685 corresponds to the fund console's previous close of 685.34. Tuesday's 28,180.26 plus 256.91 points, a 0.91 percent gain, gives the provider's 28,437.17 close, and every level below is read against that close.
On the index the put side support base sits at NDX 27,500, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 28,500, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,535, the largest gamma concentration at NDX 29,000 and the call side ceiling at NDX 29,675. The close sits 937.17 points above the put side base, 62.83 beneath the threshold, 97.83 beneath the flip level, 562.83 beneath the concentration and 1,237.83 beneath the ceiling. Gamma tilt reads 0.831, gamma notional minus 4.436 million dollars and the 25-delta risk reversal minus 0.067, all model outputs. The dataset's key index strikes are 29,000, 28,000, 29,675 and 30,000. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
On the fund the largest gamma concentration sits at 700, the put side support base at 680, the modeled volatility threshold at 714, the modeled gamma-flip level at 715 and the call side ceiling at 760. Fund gamma notional reads minus 982.497 million dollars with a gamma tilt of 0.548, proxy model outputs. The QQQ console, read at 6:18 PM ET, carried Tuesday's 685.34 as its previous close and a console price of 693.55, up 1.20 percent, which is a console reading rather than a cash close. The console shows call gamma of minus 1.25 billion against put gamma of minus 2.29 billion, one-month implied volatility of 26.95 percent against realised volatility of 22.26 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 82.55 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.23.
At the measured basis of 129.58 points the NDX 27,500 base converts to 27,629.58, the NDX 28,000 key strike to 28,129.58, the NDX 28,500 threshold to 28,629.58, the NDX 28,535 flip level to 28,664.58 and the NDX 29,000 concentration to 29,129.58. In this review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, a cash close beneath the modeled threshold and the modeled gamma-flip level, with gamma notional negative on both the index and the fund, describes an environment in which dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them, with the 28,629.58 to 28,664.58 conversions as the first dataset references above the settle; gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex and Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET. The Japanese services survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to lower beneath the 28,629.58 to 28,664.58 conversions, expected band roughly 28,350 to 28,750.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral beneath the conversions, expected band roughly 28,300 to 28,750.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, RTH Open)
Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with weekly jobless claims listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of the semiconductor decline and of the after-hours reaction to the mobile-chip designer's results. Expected band roughly 28,150 to 28,850, with the 28,640 to 28,680 setup band in the upper half.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)
The remarks by the head of the European Central Bank at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the 4:00 PM ET settle fixes the reference ahead of Friday's employment report. Expected band roughly 28,150 to 28,850.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
The Thursday evening session at 6:00 PM ET carries the settle into Friday. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 28,300 to 28,800; Mid-range scenario (most likely): 28,100 to 28,950; High-range scenario: 27,800 to 29,150.
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 28,383.83 and Wednesday's 28,969.00 high, with rebounds into the 28,629.58 to 28,664.58 conversions that stall and a test of the 28,488.88 to 28,478.39 band weighted above a renewed advance through the 28,920.38 stochastic projection. The composite holds at "88% SELL", negative direction leads on both directional systems, the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day and 50-day averages and the cash index closed beneath the modeled threshold and flip level, while the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent on a day the broad index rose.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above the 28,920.38 stochastic projection, which would bring the 29,040.59 crossing price and Pivot R1 at 29,151.92 into play. On the other side, a move beneath the Pivot Point at 28,383.83 before any rebound would bring the 28,129.58 conversion into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Wednesday's releases are complete. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against 67 thousand and the services purchasing managers' survey released at 10:00 AM ET read 54.5 against 54.8, per the news-feed calendar. A mobile-chip designer reported at 4:00 PM ET, per the news feed.
On Thursday, November 5, 2026, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET, weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and Federal Reserve speakers at 8:50 AM ET and 9:10 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later, the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the contract on Thursday is the 9:30 AM ET cash open as the first directional test of the semiconductor decline and of the after-hours reaction to the mobile-chip designer's results, with the 8:30 AM ET data the scheduled test of yields.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract faded 402.25 from its 28,969.00 high to settle beneath the 5-day average, the composite reads "88% SELL", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the cash index closed beneath the modeled threshold and flip level. A rebound into the 28,640 to 28,680 band, which holds the 28,664.58 conversion and sits 10.42 above the 28,629.58 conversion, offers a short with a defined risk point above the 28,792.00 midday high. The broad index rose 1.58 percent and a rotation into the contract's laggards can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the conversions are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 28,640 to 28,680
Stop Loss: 28,800 (above the 28,792.00 high of the 11:30 AM ET bar)
Target 1 (T1): 28,520 (above the 28,488.88 retracement)
Target 2 (T2): 28,380 (beneath the Pivot Point at 28,383.83)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 28,240 (above the 28,193.68 crossover stall)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above the 28,920.38 stochastic projection negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band and not by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,680.
Macro override: Two scenarios could lift the contract: a rebound in semiconductors, or a fall in yields after the 8:30 AM ET data. In either scenario a move through the 28,800 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 28,920.38 projection becomes the reference, 120.38 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 667.84.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Wednesday's close on November 4, 2026 for the Thursday, November 5, 2026 session; its setup is the review's as published at the settle. Wednesday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-11-04 row, and match the chart's completed daily bar; the partial 2026-11-05 row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded from every count and average and is not quoted. Wednesday's session opened at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. The overview's open, high and low already belong to the session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, so Wednesday's range comes from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 30,505.17 less Pivot S3 at 26,445.42, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 29,737.08 less Pivot S2 at 27,030.58, divided by two, both return 1,353.25, and three times the 28,383.83 Pivot Point less the settle gives 56,584.74, the sum of the 28,969.00 high and the 27,615.75 low within published rounding. Every time of day given for Wednesday's prices comes from the 30-minute series for Wednesday's session, which starts at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, read as Eastern standard-time clock labels. Wednesday's card, set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, is scored only from that time: the 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time, so the order of prices within it is treated as unknown, and earlier bars are context only. Session windows are scored over the bars that open inside each window.
The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 259 completed sessions, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick; 48 of the 200 sessions in the 200-day window carry no recorded volume. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-11-04 row reads 980,905 contracts, and Wednesday's open interest is not yet reported; the 2026-11-03 row now reads 653,606 contracts and open interest of 290,046, where Wednesday's outlook carried 643,657 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-11-02 row reads open interest of 294,957. No weekly positioning report figure is carried. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Tuesday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is the review's conversion at the 129.58 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 125.49 on Tuesday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. The reading that dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them is the review's interpretation from the index model and that proxy, both model outputs, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction; the fund console was read at 6:18 PM ET. Company results and reports are described per the news feed with generic descriptions; investment-bank notes and the press wrap carried by the news feed are attributed commentary; commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results is described only as coinciding in time with the overnight bars. Cross-asset moves are reported side by side, and none is presented as the cause of another. The volume and open-interest changes, the session-window highs and lows and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the index that rose 1.58 percent in cash on Wednesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
