December crude fell 7.97 on Wednesday, or 8.29 percent, to settle at 88.12. The session ran from 97.15 down to 87.13, a 10.02 point range. The settle finished at 9.9 percent of it. That range was 2.21 times the 14-day average daily range of 4.53 points. The decline is the largest one-session point decline in the 259 completed settlements on file, which run from 10/24/25. The settle is the lowest since 10/07/26.
Wednesday's short card traded in order after it was set. The card, set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, was a short from 96.40 to 96.70 with a 97.30 stop. The 12:00 AM ET bar first traded into the band. The 2:30 AM ET bar then made the high after 10:15 PM ET, 96.87, 43 cents beneath the stop. All three targets traded after the band, the last in the 8:00 AM ET bar. The session's 97.15 high came in the 8:00 PM ET bar, before the card existed. No fill and no result are asserted.
Most of the decline came in the US morning and midday. The 11:30 AM ET bar alone fell 3.31, from 91.82 to 88.51. Brent's January contract fell 8.67 percent, heating oil 7.18 percent and gasoline 7.05 percent. The government petroleum status report showed a crude draw of 0.865 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.7 million, per the news-feed calendar.
Thursday's setup is a short from 90.40 to 90.70, beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80, with a 91.60 stop. The band sits above the 88.12 settle. Target 1 at 89.50 and Target 2 at 88.45 also sit above the settle; only Target 3, the extended 87.40, sits beneath it. The setup asks for a rebound first.
December crude settled at 88.12, down 7.97 or 8.29 percent, at 9.9 percent of an 87.13 to 97.15 range. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. Resistance starts at the 89.02 rebound high, then the 90.70 projection and the Pivot Point at 90.80. Support starts at the 88.04 post-settlement print, then the 87.99 midpoint, the 87.61 crossing price and the 87.13 low. The setup is a short from 90.40 to 90.70, with a 91.60 stop and targets at 89.50, 88.45 and an extended 87.40. Target 1 and Target 2 sit above the settle; only Target 3 sits beneath it.
Wednesday's short band traded after 10:15 PM ET, and all three targets followed
First, the grading. In Wednesday's outlook we set a short on the December contract from 96.40 to 96.70, stop 97.30, with targets at 95.80, 95.05 and an extended 94.30. The levels were set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, four hours into Wednesday's session. A settle above the 97.74 retracement would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes above 96.70 would remove the edge. The card is graded only from 10:15 PM ET forward, with the order of events taken from the 30-minute bars.
Part of the session came before the card. The reopen at 6:00 PM ET came at 96.81, and the first five bars all traded across 96.40. The 8:00 PM ET bar made the session's 97.15 high, 15 cents beneath what became the stop. Those bars came before the card existed. None of them counts here. The 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time and ran 95.13 to 95.68. It touched no card level.
So the card began beneath its band. The 10:30 PM ET, 11:00 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET bars all traded beneath Target 1 at 95.80. The 11:30 PM ET bar's 95.03 low went 2 cents beneath Target 2. Then the rebound came. The 12:00 AM ET bar reached 96.68, the first trade inside the band after the card. The 2:00 AM ET bar ran to 96.82, above the 96.70 top, and closed at 96.69. The 2:30 AM ET bar made 96.87, 43 cents beneath the 97.30 stop. No two 30-minute closes printed above 96.70.
The targets followed in order. After the band traded, the 3:00 AM ET bar was the first back at 95.80, with a low of 95.67. The 5:00 AM ET bar reached 94.60, through Target 2 at 95.05. The 8:00 AM ET bar reached 93.94, through the extended 94.30. The decline then ran on to the 87.13 low in the 12:30 PM ET bar, 7.17 beneath Target 3. The 88.12 settle sat 6.18 beneath Target 3 and 9.62 beneath the 97.74 line. The stop never traded after 10:15 PM ET. No fill and no result are asserted.
The session bands did not contain the decline. The night band of 94.70 to 95.90 covered the rest of that session. After 10:15 PM ET those bars ran 95.03 to 96.87, 97 cents over its top. London traded 94.43 to 96.65 against 94.50 to 96.30, through both ends. The morning traded 88.26 to 94.10 against 93.80 to 96.80, through the bottom by 5.54. The afternoon traded 87.13 to 89.02. That was entirely beneath its 93.80 to 96.80 band.
All three scenario cases broke at the bottom. The 87.13 low sat 5.87 beneath the 93.00 bottom of the high-range case. It sat 6.67 beneath the most likely case's 93.80. It sat 4.90 beneath one average true range around Tuesday's settle, 92.03 to 100.15, and 2.47 beneath the 89.60 bottom of three deviations.
The weighted path held the contract between Pivot S1 at 93.51 and the 97.15 overnight high, with a rebound first. The rebound came. After 10:15 PM ET the bars reached the Pivot Point at 96.17 in the 12:00 AM ET bar and the 96.76 print in the 2:00 AM ET bar. It stalled at 96.87, 28 cents beneath 97.15. Then the range gave way. The 94.28 target price broke in the 8:00 AM ET bar, Pivot S1 in the 8:30 AM ET bar and one standard deviation support at 92.34 in the 10:30 AM ET bar. The alternative, a settle above 97.74, did not print.
The macro override named a government report confirming a large draw, or a confirmed breakdown of US and Iran talks. The report showed a draw of 0.865 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.7 million, per the news-feed calendar. The review records no confirmed breakdown.
An 8.29 percent decline to 88.12, most of it in the US morning and midday
Most of the 7.97 came after dawn. The overnight hours held between 94.90 and 97.15. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract fell to 92.51 in the 9:00 AM ET bar and closed that window at 93.44. The 10:00 AM ET bar made the cash-hours high of 94.10. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 1.83, from 93.92 to 92.09, and coincided with the government inventory report. The 11:30 AM ET bar fell 3.31, from 91.82 to 88.51. No 30-minute bar in the session fell further. The 12:30 PM ET bar made the 87.13 low.
The rebound was small. The 1:00 PM ET bar rose 74 cents to 88.81, with a high of 89.02. No bar in the session rose more. The settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 88.04, 8 cents beneath the settle; that is a post-settlement quote.
Commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results linked them to the week's decline in oil; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The provider's commentary attributed the decline to hopes for progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The series does not establish that any single headline caused a particular move.
Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low. Its 97.15 high sat 1.67 beneath Tuesday's 98.82, and its 87.13 low sat 6.46 beneath Tuesday's 93.59. It was the third lower settle in a row. Settlements over six sessions read 102.78, 102.00, 104.12, 96.46, 96.09 and 88.12. The contract has fallen 16.00 since Friday's 104.12 settle. Over five sessions it is down 14.66 from the 102.78 settle of 10/28, which the provider publishes as a 14.26 percent five-day change.
Three comparisons frame the size. The 7.97 point decline is the largest one-session point decline in the 259 settlements on file. The 10.02 point range is the widest since 03/23/26. The 88.12 settle is the lowest since 10/07/26, when the contract settled at 87.55. The 87.13 low is the lowest since the 86.00 low of 10/06/26.
Ranges have widened for three sessions. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23 and 10.02. Wednesday's was the widest of the ten and the third in a row above 5 points. In the 30-minute bars the three largest declines came at 11:30 AM ET, 3.31, at 10:30 AM ET, 1.83, and at 5:00 AM ET, 1.31. The four-hour bar from 10:00 AM ET fell 5.36, from 93.36 to 88.00.
The swing highs keep stepping down. Friday's 104.99 high gave way to 102.75 on Monday, 98.82 on Tuesday and 97.15 on Wednesday. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 86.00 as the one-month low and 71.00 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 1.99 above the 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low. It sits 13 cents above the 87.99 midpoint of the 13-week range. The grid puts the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 92.01 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high sits at 97.74.
Resistance starts 90 cents up, at the 89.02 high of the 1:00 PM ET rebound bar. The 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 90.70 and the Pivot Point at 90.80 follow. The 50-day average at 91.79 comes next, which the review's list leaves out. The 92.01 retracement, the 92.49 projection, the 92.61 top of one average true range and the 92.86 stall price form the next band. The 93.77 crossing price, the 94.10 cash-hours high, one standard deviation resistance at 94.35 and Pivot R1 at 94.47 are the extended references. The 95.49 retracement sits beyond.
Support starts 8 cents down, at the 88.04 post-settlement print. The 87.99 midpoint of the 13-week range, the 87.61 crossing price and Wednesday's 87.13 low follow. The 86.13 retracement and the 86.00 one-month low form the next band. Pivot S1 at 84.45, the 83.98 retracement and the 83.77 target price are the deeper references. The 83.63 bottom of one average true range and the 100-day at 83.37 come next; the review's list skips both. One standard deviation support at 81.89 and Pivot S2 at 80.78 sit beyond.
The settle now sits beneath four averages. It is 9.24 beneath the 5-day at 97.36, 11.27 beneath the 9-day at 99.39 and 9.11 beneath the 20-day at 97.23. It is 3.67 beneath the 50-day at 91.79. It sits 4.75 above the 100-day at 83.37 and 9.98 above the 200-day at 78.14. Wednesday's settle is the first beneath the 50-day since 08/07/26. The contract had settled above it on 61 straight sessions, from 08/10/26 through Tuesday. The 5-day fell 2.93 from Tuesday's 100.29 as the 10/28 settle of 102.78 left the window.
The stack beneath stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 88.16, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 74.95 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 72.91. The projection grid gives 98.90 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Thursday and 93.77 for the 40-day average.
Momentum reads stretched. Relative strength reads 30.53 on the 9-day, 38.19 on the 14-day and 43.26 on the 20-day. The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastics all read 5.54 percent. The 14-day %K at 22.15 percent sits beneath %D at 48.24 percent. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. On the 9-day it reads 32.46 against 13.48, with the ADX at 49.96. On the 14-day it reads 25.90 against 16.59, with the ADX at 41.10. Historic volatility reads 63.80 percent and 55.75 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read for Thursday is 24 percent sell, against 8 percent buy a session earlier. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 24 percent buy a month ago. Its signal strength is described as weak and its direction as average. The short horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium 25 percent sell and the long 67 percent buy. The trend composite reads sell. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen; the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.
Average ranges have widened. The 14-day average true range stands at 4.49 points, about 5.1 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 4.53. The 9-day figures are 4.95 and 4.85 and the 20-day 4.17 and 4.18. One average true range either side of the settle spans 83.63 to 92.61. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 81.89 to 94.35, 79.32 to 96.92 and 77.34 to 98.90. They describe dispersion only.
A smaller inventory draw, diplomacy reports and products that fell with crude
The inventory report came first. The government petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, as the calendar lists it. It showed a crude draw of 0.865 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.7 million and a prior draw of 1.892 million, per the news-feed calendar. Tuesday's after-settle industry estimate had shown a draw of 5.267 million. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 1.83 and coincided with the release. The next weekly report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it.
The day's US data came early. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, with a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against a forecast of 67 thousand. The services purchasing managers' survey, released at 10:00 AM ET, read 54.5 against a forecast of 54.8, per the news-feed calendar.
Diplomacy reports came in the afternoon. At 1:22 PM ET the news feed carried a regional press report, citing diplomatic sources, that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday and that significant progress had been made. At 1:45 PM ET it carried a Treasury statement on sanctions. These are reports carried by the feeds, not events confirmed for this review.
Supply drew reports only. At 2:54 PM ET the news feed carried a press report that a diesel arrangement with Russia had faltered as US fuel supplies reached a 20-year low. Two more followed. At 3:01 PM ET the commodity feed carried a report that the United Arab Emirates is weighing a third export line that bypasses the main Gulf sea route. At 6:00 PM ET it carried a report that Qatar has become the largest buyer of US liquefied natural gas. These are reports, not supply decisions. The producer group's monthly report is listed for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Products fell with crude. Brent's January contract settled at 94.62, down 8.98 or 8.67 percent, which the news feed described as its lowest settle since August 31. December heating oil settled at 4.2055 dollars a gallon, down 7.18 percent, and December gasoline at 2.7286, down 7.05 percent. Both margins narrowed. The heating oil margin over December WTI fell to 88.51 dollars a barrel from 94.20. The gasoline margin fell to 26.48 from 27.20. Natural gas's December contract settled at 2.9590, per the news feed.
Other markets moved too. Gold's December contract rose 3.37 percent and silver's 5.08 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 1.58 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.03 percent and the Nasdaq-100 0.91 percent. The semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57 against 101.87, and the ten-year yield index closed lower at 4.89 percent. The volatility index closed lower at 16.61. These moves coincided with crude's decline, and no series in the review separates their effects.
Volume rose on Wednesday. December volume was 423,829 contracts against 376,081 on Tuesday. Tuesday's open interest stood at 231,146, against 236,239 on Monday; Wednesday's open interest had not been reported in final form. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.02 from 1.32. Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 7.52 from 8.83. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Thursday
The review's setup for Thursday is a short on the December contract from 90.40 to 90.70, as published at the settle. The contract settled at 9.9 percent of a 10.02 point range and beneath the 50-day average. The composite moved to 24 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. In the review's reading, a rebound into the band, beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80, offers a short with a defined risk point above the Pivot Point. The review notes that oscillators are stretched after a three-session decline and that diplomacy headlines can carry price through the band. It calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 90.55 midpoint the risk to the stop is 1.05, 23.4 percent of the 14-day average true range of 4.49. The targets sit 1.05, 2.10 and 3.15 beneath the midpoint. That is exactly 1, 2 and 3 times the risk. The band sits above the settle, its bottom 2.28 and its top 2.58 over it. Target 1 sits 1.38 above the settle. Target 2 sits 33 cents above it. Only Target 3 sits beneath the settle, 72 cents under it and 27 cents above the 87.13 low. The stop sits 80 cents above the Pivot Point and 19 cents beneath the 50-day average at 91.79.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 86.80 to 89.80, the most likely 85.80 to 90.80 and the high-range case 84.40 to 92.60. For the night session from 6:00 PM ET the review's bias is lower to neutral beneath the 90.70 to 90.80 band. Its expected band runs roughly 86.80 to 89.60. The Japanese composite survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
London starts at 3:00 AM ET and runs roughly 86.80 to 89.80, with a neutral bias beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80. European industrial data from 2:00 AM ET and the Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The morning band runs roughly 86.40 to 90.40. Its top meets the bottom of the setup band. The calendar lists preliminary productivity and costs at 8:30 AM ET. Weekly jobless claims are listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
The afternoon runs roughly 86.40 to 90.40, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET ahead of Friday's employment report. The calendar lists that report at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6. Remarks by the head of the European Central Bank at 11:00 AM ET and 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude for Thursday is unscheduled: US and Iran diplomacy headlines, which the news feed said would become clearer on Friday. The 8:30 AM ET US data is the scheduled test of the dollar.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 84.45 and the Pivot Point at 90.80. It favours a rebound first. A rebound toward the 89.02 high and the 90.70 to 90.80 band that stalls beneath the Pivot Point is weighted above a recovery through the 92.01 retracement. In the review's interpretation, relative strength at 30.53 and raw stochastics at 5.54 percent after a 16.00 point three-session decline favour a rebound attempt before any extension. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above 92.01. That could bring the 93.77 crossing price and Pivot R1 at 94.47 into play. On the other side, a move beneath the 86.00 one-month low before any rebound could bring Pivot S1 and the 83.77 target price into play without the rebound the setup needs.
The settle sits 2.28 beneath the band. The setup needs that gap closed first.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 88.12 on Wednesday, down 7.97 or 8.29 percent from Tuesday's settle of 96.09, after trading between 97.15 and 87.13, a 10.02 point daily range. The settle finished at 9.9 percent of the range, and the range was 2.21 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 4.53 points. Wednesday printed a lower high, 1.67 beneath Tuesday's 98.82, and a lower low, 6.46 beneath Tuesday's 93.59, and it was the third consecutive lower settle. The 88.12 settle is the lowest since 10/07/26, when the contract settled at 87.55, and the 87.13 low is the lowest since the 86.00 low of 10/06/26. The 7.97 point decline is the largest one-session point decline in the 259 completed settlements on file, which run from 10/24/25, and the 10.02 point range is the widest since 03/23/26.
The decline came in the US morning and midday. The overnight hours held between 94.90 and 97.15, and the contract then fell through the European morning and the cash session to the 87.13 low in the 12:30 PM ET bar. The 11:30 AM ET bar alone fell 3.31, from 91.82 to 88.51, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. Commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results linked them to the week's decline in oil; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The provider's commentary attributed the decline to hopes for progress in US and Iran diplomacy; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The series does not establish that any single headline caused a particular move.
Brent's January contract settled at 94.62, down 8.98 or 8.67 percent, which the news feed described as its lowest settle since August 31. Heating oil fell 7.18 percent and gasoline 7.05 percent. The government petroleum status report, released at 10:30 AM ET as the calendar lists it, showed a crude draw of 0.865 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.7 million, per the news-feed calendar. After the settle the contract traded at 88.04 at the close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, 0.08 beneath the settle.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday is "24% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Average", against "8% BUY" a session earlier. The next weekly government report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 90.40 to 90.70 band beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80, stopped at 91.60, with objectives at 89.50, 88.45 and an extended 87.40.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 96.81 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.72 above Tuesday's settle, and the preserved 30-minute series on the continuous symbol places the high of 97.15 in the 8:00 PM ET bar and the low of 87.13 in the 12:30 PM ET bar. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 94.90 and 97.15, with the 9:30 PM ET bar making the overnight low; the 3:00 AM ET bar opened at 96.15.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract fell to 92.51 in the 9:00 AM ET bar and closed that window at 93.44. The 10:00 AM ET bar made the cash-hours high of 94.10. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 1.83, from 93.92 to 92.09, and coincided with the 10:30 AM ET government inventory report. The 11:30 AM ET bar fell 3.31 to 88.51 and the 12:30 PM ET bar made the 87.13 low. The 1:00 PM ET bar rose 0.74 to 88.81 with a high of 89.02. The settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 88.04.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Thursday, so Wednesday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 104.49 minus Pivot S3 at 74.43, divided by three, returns 10.02, and Pivot R2 at 100.82 minus Pivot S2 at 80.78, divided by two, returns the same 10.02. Three times the Pivot Point of 90.80 less the 88.12 settle gives a high plus low sum of 184.28, which solves to a high of 97.15 and a low of 87.13; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 96.81 open, 97.15 high, 87.13 low and 88.12 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Tuesday. Settlements over the last six sessions read 102.78, 102.00, 104.12, 96.46, 96.09 and 88.12, so the contract has fallen on each of the three sessions since Friday's 104.12 settle, a combined 16.00 points. Over five sessions the contract is down 14.66 from the 102.78 settle of 10/28, which the provider also publishes as a 14.26 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 86.00 as the one-month low and 71.00 as the 13-week low. The Wednesday settle sits 1.99 above the 86.13 retracement level, published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low, and 0.13 above the 87.99 midpoint of the 13-week range.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/22, ran 2.45, 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23 and 10.02, so Wednesday's range was the widest of the ten and the third session in a row above 5 points. In the preserved 30-minute series the three largest declines came in the 11:30 AM ET bar, 3.31, the 10:30 AM ET bar, 1.83, and the 5:00 AM ET bar, 1.31, while no bar rose more than 0.74.
The swing sequence is a run of lower highs since Friday's 104.99 high: 102.75 on Monday, 98.82 on Tuesday and 97.15 on Wednesday. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 92.01, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 97.74.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/24/25 through Wednesday; the partial row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 97.36, the 9-day at 99.39, the 20-day at 97.23, the 50-day at 91.79, the 100-day at 83.37 and the 200-day at 78.14.
The 88.12 settle sits 9.24 beneath the 5-day average, 11.27 beneath the 9-day, 9.11 beneath the 20-day and 3.67 beneath the 50-day, and 4.75 above the 100-day and 9.98 above the 200-day. The contract had settled above its 50-day average on each of the 61 sessions from 08/10/26 through Tuesday, and Wednesday's settle is beneath it, the first settle beneath it since 08/07/26. The 5-day average fell from Tuesday's 100.29 as Wednesday's settle replaced the 10/28 settle of 102.78.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 88.16. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 74.95, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 72.91. The projection grid gives 98.90 as the price at which the 9-day average would be crossed on Thursday and 93.77 for the 40-day average.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, not this review's computations, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 30.53, the 14-day relative strength 38.19 and the 20-day relative strength 43.26.
The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastic all read 5.54 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 22.15 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 48.24 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 49.96 with the 9-day +DI at 13.48 and the 9-day -DI at 32.46, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 41.10 with the 14-day +DI at 16.59 and the 14-day -DI at 25.90, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 63.80 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 55.75 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is "24% SELL", with signal strength "Weak" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "8% BUY" for the prior session, "100% BUY" a week ago and "24% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "60% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.49 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.53 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.95 with a 9-day average daily range of 4.85, and the 20-day average true range is 4.17 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.18. Wednesday's 10.02 point range was 2.21 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.49 from the 88.12 settle frames Thursday between 83.63 and 92.61. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 81.89 to 94.35 at one deviation, 79.32 to 96.92 at two and 77.34 to 98.90 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and after a decline of this size they are wide.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 88.12 settle, the first references are the 89.02 high of the 1:00 PM ET rebound bar and the 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 90.70, with the Pivot Point at 90.80 just above it. The 92.01 retracement from the 13-week high, the 30 percent raw stochastic projection at 92.49 and the 92.86 price at which the 18-day average stalls form the next band. The 93.77 price that would cross the 40-day average, one standard deviation resistance at 94.35 and Pivot R1 at 94.47 are the extended references, with the 95.49 retracement of the four-week range beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 87.99 midpoint of the 13-week range, the 87.61 price at which the 9-day and 18-day averages would cross and Wednesday's 87.13 low. The 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low and the 86.00 one-month low form the next band. Pivot S1 at 84.45, the 83.98 retracement from the 13-week low and the published target price at 83.77 are the deeper references, with one standard deviation support at 81.89 and Pivot S2 at 80.78 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
The feeds for Wednesday contain commentary, with no producer-group decisions. The commodity feed carried at 3:01 PM ET a report that the United Arab Emirates is weighing a third export line that bypasses the main Gulf sea route, and at 6:00 PM ET a report that Qatar has become the largest buyer of US liquefied natural gas; these are reports, not supply decisions. The producer group's monthly report is listed for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
The government petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and showed a crude draw of 0.865 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.7 million and a prior draw of 1.892 million, per the news-feed calendar. Tuesday's after-settle industry estimate had shown a draw of 5.267 million. The 10:30 AM ET bar fell 1.83 and coincided with the release. The next weekly government report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela)
At 1:22 PM ET the news feed carried a regional press report, citing diplomatic sources, that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday and that significant progress had been made. At 1:45 PM ET it carried a Treasury statement on sanctions. At 2:54 PM ET it carried a press report that a diesel arrangement with Russia had faltered as US fuel supplies reached a 20-year low. These are reports carried by the feeds, not events confirmed for this review.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
Heating oil's December contract settled at 4.2055 dollars a gallon, down 7.18 percent, and gasoline's December contract at 2.7286, down 7.05 percent, declines close to crude's 8.29 percent. Measured on the December contracts, the heating oil margin over December WTI narrowed to 88.51 dollars a barrel from 94.20 and the gasoline margin to 26.48 from 27.20. Natural gas's December contract settled at 2.9590, per the news feed.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57 against 101.87, and the ten-year yield index closed lower at 4.89 percent. Gold's December contract rose 3.37 percent. Silver's December contract rose 5.08 percent. The S&P 500 cash index rose 1.58 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.03 percent and the Nasdaq-100 0.91 percent, while the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent and the volatility index closed lower at 16.61. These moves coincided with crude's decline, and no series in this review separates their effects.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
Wednesday's December volume was 423,829 contracts against 376,081 on Tuesday, per the settlement record; the open-interest column of the record is published with a lag and is not used. December's premium over January narrowed to 1.02 from 1.32, and Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 7.52 from 8.83.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET. The Japanese composite survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias lower to neutral beneath the 90.70 to 90.80 band, expected band roughly 86.80 to 89.60, with US and Iran headlines the main source of gap risk.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
The Bank of England decision is listed for 7:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and European industrial data from 2:00 AM ET. Bias neutral beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80, expected band roughly 86.80 to 89.80.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, US Open / Pit Session)
Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with weekly jobless claims listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 86.40 to 90.40; the 90.40 to 90.70 setup band begins at that 90.40 top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Thursday, NYMEX Pit Close)
The settlement at 2:30 PM ET fixes the reference ahead of Friday's employment report, with US and Iran diplomacy headlines the main unscheduled source of movement. Expected band roughly 86.40 to 90.40.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
The Thursday evening session at 6:00 PM ET carries the settle into Friday. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the press report carried by the news feed said the course of the negotiations would become clearer on Friday.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 86.80 to 89.80
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 85.80 to 90.80
High-range scenario: 84.40 to 92.60
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S1 at 84.45 and the Pivot Point at 90.80, with a rebound toward the 89.02 rebound high and the 90.70 to 90.80 band that stalls beneath the Pivot Point weighted above a recovery through the 92.01 retracement. The composite moved to "24% SELL" from "8% BUY", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day and 50-day averages, while the 9-day relative strength at 30.53 and raw stochastics at 5.54 percent describe a contract that is stretched after a 16.00 point three-session decline, which in this review's interpretation favours a rebound attempt before any extension.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above the 92.01 retracement from the 13-week high, which would bring the 93.77 crossing price and Pivot R1 at 94.47 into play. On the other side, a move beneath the 86.00 one-month low before any rebound would bring Pivot S1 at 84.45 and the 83.77 target price into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Wednesday's releases are complete. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against a forecast of 67 thousand, and the services purchasing managers' survey released at 10:00 AM ET read 54.5 against a forecast of 54.8, per the news-feed calendar. The government petroleum status report was released at 10:30 AM ET as the calendar lists it, as described in section 4.2.
On Thursday, November 5, 2026, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET, weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and remarks by the head of the European Central Bank at 11:00 AM ET and 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later, the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude for Thursday is unscheduled: US and Iran diplomacy headlines, which the news feed said would become clearer on Friday, with the 8:30 AM ET US data the scheduled test of the dollar.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled at 9.9 percent of a 10.02 point range, beneath the 50-day average for the first time since 08/07/26, the composite moved to "24% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems. A rebound into the 90.40 to 90.70 band, beneath the Pivot Point at 90.80, offers a short with a defined risk point above the Pivot Point. Oscillators are stretched after a three-session decline and diplomacy headlines can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the Pivot Point are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 90.40 to 90.70
Stop Loss: 91.60 (above the 90.80 Pivot Point and beneath the 92.01 retracement)
Target 1 (T1): 89.50 (above the 89.02 rebound high)
Target 2 (T2): 88.45 (above the 88.12 settle)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 87.40 (above the 87.13 session low)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above the 92.01 retracement from the 13-week high negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 90.70; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A confirmed breakdown of US and Iran talks, or a supply disruption in the Gulf, could lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 91.60 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 92.01 retracement becomes the reference, 0.41 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 4.49.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Wednesday's close on November 4, 2026 for the Thursday, November 5, 2026 session. December is the contract the chart's continuous symbol tracks. Wednesday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 104.49 less Pivot S3 at 74.43, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 100.82 less Pivot S2 at 80.78, divided by two, both return 10.02. Three times the 90.80 Pivot Point less the 88.12 settle gives 184.28, which solves to the 97.15 high and the 87.13 low. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Wednesday bar carry the same 96.81 open, extremes and settle.
Wednesday's card was written on the December contract and set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday. It is graded only from that time forward, on the 30-minute bars of the continuous symbol: 46 bars from the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 4:30 PM ET bar, labelled in Eastern standard time. The 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time; earlier bars are context only. The provider's December settlement row for 11/04 reads open 96.81, high 97.15, low 87.13, settle 88.12, volume 423,829. No price move is tied to a headline by this outlook.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions from 10/24/25 through Wednesday; the partial row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded, and no reopened-session price is quoted. The 50-day count is computed from the same series. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:20 PM ET on Wednesday. Tuesday's 11/03 row has been revised: December volume now reads 376,081 against the 348,750 cited in Wednesday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 231,146. Wednesday's open interest had not been reported in final form. The cash-hours high of 94.10 is placed in the 10:00 AM ET bar, where the 30-minute bars put it. The dollar index percentage is computed from the dated closes of 101.87 and 101.57.
No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar. Clock times are Eastern standard time, as the review and the calendar state them.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Wednesday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,073.0 on Wednesday, up 3.37 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
