December crude rose 2.40 on Thursday, or 2.72 percent, to settle at 90.52. That ended a run of three lower settles. The session ran from 86.65 up to 91.32, a 4.67 point range, and the settle finished at 82.9 percent of it. The range was 1.02 times the 14-day average daily range of 4.57 points. The 86.65 low is the lowest since the 86.00 low of 10/06/26.
Thursday's short card traded in a clear order. The card, published at Wednesday's settle, was a short from 90.40 to 90.70 with a 91.60 stop. The 10:00 AM ET bar first traded into the band. Target 1 at 89.50 followed in the 11:30 AM ET bar. After the settle, the 3:30 PM ET and 4:00 PM ET bars closed above 90.70, the card's condition for removing the edge. The stop did not trade. No fill and no result are asserted.
Products led the advance. Brent's January contract rose 3.88 percent and December heating oil 3.48 percent. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent on the same day. The provider's commentary attributed the advance to short covering and tight distillate supplies; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed.
Friday's setup is a short from 92.00 to 92.30, beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34, with a 93.00 stop. The band sits above the 90.52 settle and above the 91.32 session high. Target 1 at 91.30 sits above the settle. Target 2 at 90.45 and Target 3, the extended 89.60, sit beneath it. The setup asks for a rebound first.
December crude settled at 90.52, up 2.40 or 2.72 percent, at 82.9 percent of an 86.65 to 91.32 range. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. Resistance starts at the 90.99 high before the settle, then the 91.32 session high, the 91.43 stall price and the 50-day average at 92.01. Support starts at the 90.32 projection, then the Pivot Point at 89.50 and the 89.00 cash-hours low. The setup is a short from 92.00 to 92.30, with a 93.00 stop and targets at 91.30, 90.45 and an extended 89.60. Target 1 sits above the settle; Target 2 and Target 3 sit beneath it.
Thursday's short band traded, Target 1 followed, and two closes above 90.70 came after the settle
First, the grading. In Thursday's outlook we set a short on the December contract from 90.40 to 90.70, stop 91.60, with targets at 89.50, 88.45 and an extended 87.40. The card was published at Wednesday's settle, so it covers Thursday's whole session from the 6:00 PM ET reopen. A settle above the 92.01 retracement would negate it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes above 90.70 would remove the edge. The order of events comes from the 30-minute bars.
The session opened beneath the band. The reopen came at 88.05, 2.35 under the band's bottom. The overnight bars then fell to 86.65 in the 10:30 PM ET bar, 75 cents beneath Target 3. That low came before any trade in the band. A short that has not entered has nothing to grade there.
The rebound took the morning. The 6:00 AM ET bar reached 89.05. The 10:00 AM ET bar made 90.46, the first trade inside the band, 6 cents over its 90.40 bottom. The 11:00 AM ET bar ran to 90.99, 29 cents over the 90.70 top, and closed at 90.32. The 11:30 AM ET bar then fell to 89.00, 50 cents through Target 1 at 89.50, and closed at 90.09.
That was as far as the targets went. The low after the band was the 89.00 print, 55 cents above Target 2 at 88.45. Target 2 and the extended 87.40 did not trade after the band. The 2:30 PM ET settle came at 90.52, inside the band, 12 cents over its bottom and 18 cents beneath its top.
The edge condition printed after the settle. The 3:30 PM ET bar closed at 90.71, a cent over the band top. The 4:00 PM ET bar closed at 90.96. Those are the two consecutive 30-minute closes above 90.70 that the card named, and no earlier bar closed above 90.70. The 4:30 PM ET bar made the 91.32 high, 28 cents beneath the 91.60 stop. The stop never traded. The settle sat 1.49 beneath the 92.01 line. No fill and no result are asserted.
The session bands ran high. The night band of 86.80 to 89.60 met bars from 86.65 to 88.43, 15 cents through its bottom. London traded 87.62 to 89.84 against 86.80 to 89.80, 4 cents over the top. The morning traded 89.00 to 90.99 against 86.40 to 90.40, 59 cents over its top. The afternoon traded 89.89 to 90.84 against the same band, 44 cents over.
The scenario cases split. The low-range case of 86.80 to 89.80 broke at both ends, by 15 cents at the low and 1.52 at the high. The most likely case, 85.80 to 90.80, held the low with 85 cents to spare. Its top gave way to the 91.32 high by 52 cents. The high-range case, 84.40 to 92.60, held the whole session. So did one average true range around Wednesday's settle, 83.63 to 92.61.
The weighted path called for a rebound toward the 89.02 high and the 90.70 to 90.80 band that stalls beneath the Pivot Point. The rebound came. The 11:00 AM ET bar reached 90.99, 19 cents above the 90.80 Pivot Point, and the 4:30 PM ET bar 91.32, 52 cents above it. The settle came back to 90.52, 28 cents beneath the Pivot Point. The alternative, a settle above 92.01, did not print. The other side, a move beneath the 86.00 one-month low, did not print either; the low held 65 cents above it.
The macro override named a confirmed breakdown of US and Iran talks or a supply disruption in the Gulf. The review records neither.
A 2.72 percent rebound to 90.52 after an overnight low at 86.65
The low came overnight. The bars from the 6:00 PM ET reopen to 3:00 AM ET held between 86.65 and 88.43. The 8:00 PM ET bar fell 60 cents, from 87.99 to 87.39. The 86.65 low printed in the 10:30 PM ET bar and again in the 11:30 PM ET bar. The 2:00 AM ET bar rose 83 cents, from 87.07 to 87.90. No 30-minute bar in the session moved further from open to close.
The recovery came through the European morning. From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 87.62 and 90.35. The 90.35 print came in the 8:00 AM ET bar. The 9:00 AM ET bar closed that window at 89.72. The four-hour bar from 2:00 AM ET rose 1.55, from 87.07 to 88.62, the largest gain of the six four-hour bars.
The cash hours held a narrow band. From 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET the bars traded between 89.00 and 91.05. The 10:00 AM ET bar rose 58 cents to 90.31. The 11:30 AM ET bar dipped to 89.00 and closed at 90.09. The 1:30 PM ET bar fell 60 cents, from 90.62 to 90.02. The 2:00 PM ET bar rose 53 cents to 90.55. The settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 90.52. The 4:30 PM ET bar then made the 91.32 high and closed at 91.20, 68 cents over the settle; that is a post-settlement quote.
The provider's commentary attributed the advance to short covering and tight distillate supplies; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
Thursday printed a lower high and a lower low. Its 91.32 high sat 5.83 beneath Wednesday's 97.15, and its 86.65 low sat 48 cents beneath Wednesday's 87.13. Yet it settled 2.40 higher, inside the lower half of Wednesday's 10.02 point range. Settlements over six sessions read 102.00, 104.12, 96.46, 96.09, 88.12 and 90.52. Thursday's gain recovered 2.40 of the 16.00 points lost over the prior three sessions. Over five sessions the contract is down 11.48 from the 102.00 settle of 10/29, which the provider publishes as an 11.25 percent five-day change.
Ranges narrowed. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23, 10.02 and 4.67. Thursday's 4.67 was the narrowest since the 2.56 of 10/30, after three sessions above 5 points. No 30-minute bar moved more than 83 cents from open to close. On Wednesday a single bar fell 3.31.
The swing highs keep stepping down. Friday's 104.99 high gave way to 102.75 on Monday, 98.82 on Tuesday, 97.15 on Wednesday and 91.32 on Thursday. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 86.00 as the one-month low and 71.31 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 2.37 above the 88.15 midpoint of the 13-week range. It sits 4.39 above the 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low. The grid puts the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 92.12, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 93.25 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49.
Resistance starts 47 cents up, at the 90.99 high before the settle, then the 91.20 post-settlement print and the 91.32 high. The review's list starts at 91.32; the two prints beneath it come from the 30-minute bars. The 91.43 stall price follows. Pivot R1 at 92.34 sits with the 50-day average at 92.01, the 92.12 retracement and the 92.15 projection. The 93.17 stall price, the 93.25 retracement and the 93.75 crossing price form the next band. Pivot R2 at 94.17 sits beyond, then the 95.02 top of one average true range.
Support starts 20 cents down, at the 90.32 projection. The Pivot Point at 89.50 is next, then the 89.00 cash-hours low, which the review's list leaves out. The 88.15 midpoint, Pivot S1 at 87.67 and the 87.65 target price form the next band. Thursday's 86.65 low, the 86.50 crossover stall, the 86.13 retracement and the 86.00 one-month low are the deeper references. The 86.02 bottom of one average true range sits among them, also unlisted. Pivot S2 at 84.83 and one standard deviation support at 84.32 sit beyond.
The settle sits beneath four averages. It is 4.54 beneath the 5-day at 95.06, 7.45 beneath the 9-day at 97.97 and 6.70 beneath the 20-day at 97.22. It is 1.49 beneath the 50-day at 92.01, the second settle in a row beneath it. It sits 6.99 above the 100-day at 83.53 and 12.22 above the 200-day at 78.30. The 5-day fell 2.30 from Wednesday's 97.36 as the 102.00 settle of 10/29 left the window.
The stack beneath stays in order. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 88.54, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 75.04 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 73.06. The projection grid gives 93.75 as the price at which the 40-day average would be crossed on Friday. It gives 91.43 as the price at which that crossing stalls.
Momentum eased off its lows. Relative strength reads 37.23 on the 9-day, 42.62 on the 14-day and 46.42 on the 20-day. The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastics all read 21.10 percent. The 14-day %K at 18.54 percent sits beneath %D at 30.75 percent. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. On the 9-day it reads 30.12 against 12.05, with the ADX at 49.17. On the 14-day it reads 24.74 against 15.36, with the ADX at 39.84. Historic volatility reads 61.43 percent and 55.87 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read for Friday is 24 percent sell, unchanged from a session earlier. It read 100 percent buy a week ago and 40 percent buy a month ago. Its signal strength is described as minimum and its direction as average. The short horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium 25 percent sell and the long 67 percent buy. The trend composite reads sell. These are the provider's published readings, read at 6:23 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen; the page may already reflect the reopened session's price.
Average ranges stay wide. The 14-day average true range stands at 4.50 points, about 5.0 percent of the settle, and the 14-day average daily range at 4.57. The 9-day figures are 4.92 and 4.81 and the 20-day 4.20 and 4.20. One average true range either side of the settle spans 86.02 to 95.02. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 84.32 to 96.72, 81.75 to 99.29 and 79.78 to 101.26. They describe dispersion only.
Products outpaced crude, equities fell, and diplomacy reports came after the settle
Thursday brought no weekly inventory figures. The provider's commentary cited tight distillate stocks, including diesel, in Wednesday's government report; that is attributed commentary. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, as the calendar lists it. The next weekly government report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it. The producer group's monthly report is listed for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Products outpaced crude. Brent's January contract settled at 98.29, up 3.67 or 3.88 percent, per the news feed and the settlement record. December heating oil settled at 4.3519 dollars a gallon, up 3.48 percent. December gasoline settled at 2.7634, up 1.28 percent. The heating oil margin over December WTI widened to 92.26 dollars a barrel from 88.51. The gasoline margin narrowed to 25.54 from 26.48. Natural gas's December contract settled at 2.9470, per the news feed.
Equities fell. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent, the Nasdaq-100 6.36 percent and the semiconductor index 12.25 percent. The volatility index closed at 28.18, up 69.66 percent. Gold's December contract rose 0.99 percent and silver's 0.18 percent. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.55, little changed, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.84 percent, down five basis points. Crude rose while equities fell; these moves coincided, and no series in the review separates their effects.
Diplomacy reports came after the settle. At 2:41 PM ET the news feed carried a report on US and Iran diplomacy: a senior Iranian official said a nuclear proposal had been sent to the US through an intermediary. At 2:42 PM ET it carried a report that the US was reviewing the proposal. Both arrived after the 2:30 PM ET settlement. These are reports carried by the feed, not events confirmed for this review. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Thursday's US data came early. Preliminary productivity and costs were released at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists them. Productivity came in at 3.6 percent against a forecast of 2.7 percent, and unit labour costs at minus 0.7 percent against a forecast of 0.4 percent, per the news-feed calendar. Weekly jobless claims of 189 thousand against a forecast of 196 thousand were listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The UK central bank raised its rate to 4.00 percent from 3.75 percent with nine votes for the increase, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Volume fell on Thursday. December volume was 308,350 contracts against 454,113 on Wednesday. Wednesday's open interest stood at 222,982, against 231,146 on Tuesday; Thursday's open interest had not been reported in final form. December's premium over January widened to 1.32 from 1.02. Brent's January premium over January WTI widened to 9.09 from 7.52. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude.
The trade map for Friday
The review's setup for Friday is a short on the December contract from 92.00 to 92.30, as published at the settle. The contract settled beneath the 50-day average for a second session. The composite reads 24 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. Thursday's rebound left a lower high at 91.32. In the review's reading, a test of the band, beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34 and around the 50-day average at 92.01, offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1. The review notes that Thursday's settle at 82.9 percent of its range sits near the top of that range, and that diplomacy headlines can carry price through the band. It calls the setup an analyst judgment that tests of the 50-day average are sold, not a measured edge.
Now the arithmetic. From the 92.15 midpoint the risk to the stop is 0.85, 18.9 percent of the 14-day average true range of 4.50. The targets sit 0.85, 1.70 and 2.55 beneath the midpoint. That is exactly 1, 2 and 3 times the risk. The band sits above the settle, its bottom 1.48 and its top 1.78 over it. Its bottom sits 68 cents over the 91.32 high, and its top 4 cents beneath Pivot R1. Target 1 sits 78 cents above the settle and 2 cents beneath the 91.32 high. Target 2 sits 7 cents beneath the settle. Target 3 sits 92 cents beneath it and 10 cents above the Pivot Point. The stop sits 66 cents above Pivot R1 and 17 cents beneath the 93.17 stall.
Scenario ranges in the review are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 89.60 to 92.20, the most likely 88.70 to 92.90 and the high-range case 87.60 to 94.20. The most likely case tops out 10 cents beneath the stop. For the night session from 6:00 PM ET the review's bias is neutral beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34 and the 92.01 50-day average. Its expected band runs roughly 89.80 to 92.40. Diplomacy headlines after Thursday's settlement are the main source of gap risk.
London starts at 3:00 AM ET and runs roughly 89.60 to 92.20, with a neutral bias between the Pivot Point at 89.50 and Pivot R1 at 92.34. European retail sales at 5:00 AM ET and remarks from a UK central bank official at 7:15 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The morning band runs roughly 89.20 to 92.60. The setup band sits in its upper end, its top 30 cents beneath the band's 92.60 top.
The calendar lists the employment situation report at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6. The review calls it the scheduled test of the dollar and yields. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 9:10 AM ET and the preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The afternoon runs roughly 89.20 to 92.40. Remarks by a Federal Reserve Board official at 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit at 3:00 PM ET follow, as the calendar lists them. The 2:30 PM ET settlement fixes the reference ahead of the weekend.
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, after two days of weekend headline risk on diplomacy. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. In the review's judgment the first-order influence on crude for Friday is the 8:30 AM ET employment report, through the dollar and yields. Diplomacy headlines are the main unscheduled source of movement.
The review also weighs the path. In the review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 89.50 and Pivot R1 at 92.34. A test of the 92.01 to 92.34 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 is weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads 24 percent sell. Negative direction leads on both systems, and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day and 50-day averages. Thursday's 2.40 point gain and the 82.9 percent settle location describe a rebound attempt. In the review's interpretation, that favours selling a test of the 50-day average over a renewed decline from the open. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above the 93.17 stall. That could bring the 93.75 crossing price and Pivot R2 at 94.17 into play. On the other side, a move beneath Pivot S1 at 87.67 before any rebound could bring Thursday's 86.65 low and the 86.00 one-month low into play without the rebound the setup needs.
The settle sits 1.48 beneath the band. The setup needs that gap closed first.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Friday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath. Every price is the December contract unless January is named.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December crude contract settled at 90.52 on Thursday, up 2.40 or 2.72 percent from Wednesday's settle of 88.12, after trading between 91.32 and 86.65, a 4.67 point daily range. The settle finished at 82.9 percent of the range, and the range was 1.02 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 4.57 points. Thursday printed a lower high, 5.83 beneath Wednesday's 97.15, and a lower low, 0.48 beneath Wednesday's 87.13, yet settled higher, ending a run of three lower settles. The 86.65 low is the lowest since the 86.00 low of 10/06/26, and the 4.67 point range is the narrowest since the 2.56 point range of 10/30/26.
The low came overnight and the recovery came through the European morning and the US session. The contract reached 86.65 in the 10:30 PM ET bar on Wednesday evening, reached 90.35 in the 8:00 AM ET bar on Thursday, and held between 89.00 and 91.05 through the cash hours. The provider's commentary attributed the advance to short covering and tight distillate supplies; this is attributed commentary and unconfirmed. The series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move. The 91.32 high printed in the 4:30 PM ET bar, after the 2:30 PM ET settlement.
Brent's January contract settled at 98.29, up 3.67 or 3.88 percent, per the news feed and the settlement record, and heating oil's December contract rose 3.48 percent, ahead of crude. After the settlement the news feed carried a report on US and Iran diplomacy, a senior Iranian official saying a nuclear proposal had been sent to the US through an intermediary; this is a report carried by the feed, and it arrived after the 2:30 PM ET settle.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Friday is "24% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Average", unchanged in percentage from "24% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day and 50-day settlement averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. The Primary Setup in section 8 is a short from the 92.00 to 92.30 band beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34, stopped at 93.00, with objectives at 91.30, 90.45 and an extended 89.60.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Thursday session opened at 88.05 at the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.07 beneath Wednesday's settle, and the 30-minute series on the continuous symbol places the low of 86.65 in the 10:30 PM ET bar and the high of 91.32 in the 4:30 PM ET bar. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 86.65 and 88.43, and the 8:00 PM ET bar fell 0.60, from 87.99 to 87.39; the 2:00 AM ET bar rose 0.83, from 87.07 to 87.90, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 87.62 and 90.35, with the 9:00 AM ET bar closing that window at 89.72. Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 89.00 and 91.05; the 10:00 AM ET bar rose 0.58 to 90.31 and the 11:30 AM ET bar dipped to 89.00 before closing at 90.09. The 1:30 PM ET bar fell 0.60, from 90.62 to 90.02, and the 2:00 PM ET bar rose 0.53 to 90.55. The settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 90.52, and the 4:30 PM ET bar made the 91.32 high and closed at 91.20, 0.68 above the settle.
The open, high and low on the provider's overview page now belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET for Friday, so Thursday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 97.01 minus Pivot S3 at 83.00, divided by three, returns 4.67, and Pivot R2 at 94.17 minus Pivot S2 at 84.83, divided by two, returns the same 4.67. Three times the Pivot Point of 89.50 less the 90.52 settle gives a high plus low sum of 177.98, which with the 4.67 range solves to 91.325 and 86.655, within the ladder's published rounding of the settlement row's 91.32 high and 86.65 low; that 91.32 and 86.65 pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 88.05 open, 91.32 high, 86.65 low and 90.52 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Thursday printed a lower high and a lower low against Wednesday but settled 2.40 higher, inside the lower half of Wednesday's 10.02 point range. Settlements over the last six sessions read 102.00, 104.12, 96.46, 96.09, 88.12 and 90.52, so Thursday's gain recovered 2.40 of the combined 16.00 points lost over the prior three sessions. Over five sessions the contract is down 11.48 from the 102.00 settle of 10/29, which the provider also publishes as an 11.25 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 86.00 as the one-month low and 71.31 as the 13-week low. The Thursday settle sits 2.37 above the 88.15 midpoint of the 13-week range, published as the 50 percent retracement from the 13-week high and low, and 4.39 above the 86.13 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/23, ran 5.08, 2.80, 3.38, 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23, 10.02 and 4.67, so Thursday's range was the narrowest since 10/30 after three sessions above 5 points. In the 30-minute series no bar moved more than 0.83 from open to close, against a 3.31 point decline in a single bar on Wednesday.
The swing sequence remains a run of lower highs since Friday's 104.99 high: 102.75 on Monday, 98.82 on Tuesday, 97.15 on Wednesday and 91.32 on Thursday. The published grid places the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 92.12, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 93.25 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 95.49.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Thursday; the partial row of the reopened Friday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 95.06, the 9-day at 97.97, the 20-day at 97.22, the 50-day at 92.01, the 100-day at 83.53 and the 200-day at 78.30.
The 90.52 settle sits 4.54 beneath the 5-day average, 7.45 beneath the 9-day, 6.70 beneath the 20-day and 1.49 beneath the 50-day, and 6.99 above the 100-day and 12.22 above the 200-day. It is the second consecutive settle beneath the 50-day average, after Wednesday's. The 5-day average fell from Wednesday's 97.36 as Thursday's settle replaced the 10/29 settle of 102.00.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 88.54. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 75.04, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 73.06. The projection grid gives 93.75 as the price at which the 40-day average would be crossed on Friday and 91.43 as the price at which that crossing stalls.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:23 PM ET on Thursday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, not this review's computations, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 37.23, the 14-day relative strength 42.62 and the 20-day relative strength 46.42.
The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastic all read 21.10 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 18.54 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 30.75 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 49.17 with the 9-day +DI at 12.05 and the 9-day -DI at 30.12, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 39.84 with the 14-day +DI at 15.36 and the 14-day -DI at 24.74, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 61.43 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 55.87 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is "24% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "24% SELL" for the prior session, "100% BUY" a week ago and "40% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "60% SELL", the medium group "25% SELL" and the long group "67% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.50 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.57 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.92 with a 9-day average daily range of 4.81, and the 20-day average true range is 4.20 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.20. Thursday's 4.67 point range was 1.02 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.50 from the 90.52 settle frames Friday between 86.02 and 95.02. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 84.32 to 96.72 at one deviation, 81.75 to 99.29 at two and 79.78 to 101.26 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and after the week's decline they remain wide.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 90.52 settle, the first references are the 91.32 post-settle high and the 91.43 price at which the 40-day average crossing stalls. Pivot R1 at 92.34 sits with the 50-day average at 92.01, the 92.12 retracement from the 13-week high and the 30 percent raw stochastic projection at 92.15. The 93.17 price at which the 18-day average stalls, the 93.25 retracement from the four-week low and the 93.75 price that would cross the 40-day average form the next band, with Pivot R2 at 94.17 beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sits the 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 90.32. The Pivot Point at 89.50 is next. The 88.15 midpoint of the 13-week range, Pivot S1 at 87.67 and the 87.65 published target price form the next band. Thursday's 86.65 low, the 86.50 crossover stall, the 86.13 retracement from the 52-week low and the 86.00 one-month low are the deeper references, with Pivot S2 at 84.83 and one standard deviation support at 84.32 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)
The feeds for Thursday contain commentary, with no producer-group decisions. The producer group's monthly report is listed for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.2 EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)
No weekly inventory figures were released on Thursday in the calendars. The provider's commentary cited tight distillate stocks, including diesel, in Wednesday's government report; that is attributed commentary. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the next weekly government report for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday, as the calendar lists it.
4.3 Diplomacy and Supply Reports
The news feed carried at 2:41 PM ET a report on US and Iran diplomacy: a senior Iranian official said Iran had sent the US a nuclear proposal through an intermediary, to be discussed only after the US meets seven demands. At 2:42 PM ET it carried a report that the US was reviewing the proposal. Both arrived after the 2:30 PM ET settlement and are reports carried by the feed, not events confirmed for this review. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
Heating oil's December contract settled at 4.3519 dollars a gallon, up 3.48 percent, and gasoline's December contract at 2.7634, up 1.28 percent, against crude's 2.72 percent. Measured on the December contracts, the heating oil margin over December WTI widened to 92.26 dollars a barrel from 88.51, while the gasoline margin narrowed to 25.54 from 26.48. Natural gas's December contract settled at 2.9470, per the news feed.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.55, little changed, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.84 percent, down five basis points. Gold's December contract rose 0.99 percent and silver's December contract 0.18 percent. The S&P 500 cash index fell 4.36 percent, the Nasdaq-100 6.36 percent and the semiconductor index 12.25 percent, and the volatility index closed at 28.18, up 69.66 percent. Crude rose while equities fell; these moves coincided, and no series in this review separates their effects.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
Thursday's December volume was 308,350 contracts against 454,113 on Wednesday, per the settlement record; the open-interest column of the record is published with a lag; Thursday's open interest had not been reported in final form, and the revised 11/04 row reads 222,982. December's premium over January widened to 1.32 from 1.02, and Brent's January premium over January WTI widened to 9.09 from 7.52.
5. No Liquid Options Proxy
This review covers crude without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument in this review, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in section 3 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. No such dataset was read for this review, so no claim resting on one appears anywhere in this review or in this outlook. The positioning inputs used for crude are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the volume record.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Thursday to 3:00 AM ET Friday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET. Bias neutral beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34 and the 92.01 50-day average, expected band roughly 89.80 to 92.40, with diplomacy headlines after Thursday's settlement the main source of gap risk.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Friday)
European retail sales at 5:00 AM ET and remarks from a UK central bank official at 7:15 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral between the Pivot Point at 89.50 and Pivot R1 at 92.34, expected band roughly 89.60 to 92.20.
6.3 Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Friday, US Open / Pit Session)
The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and is the scheduled test of the dollar and yields. The preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 89.20 to 92.60; the 92.00 to 92.30 setup band sits in its upper end, its top 0.30 beneath the 92.60 band top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Friday, NYMEX Pit Close)
Remarks by a Federal Reserve Board official are scheduled for 12:15 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the settlement at 2:30 PM ET fixes the reference ahead of the weekend. Expected band roughly 89.20 to 92.40.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Sunday reopen)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, after two days of weekend headline risk on diplomacy. Chinese inflation data at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
6.6 Expected Range (Friday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 89.60 to 92.20
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 88.70 to 92.90
High-range scenario: 87.60 to 94.20
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 89.50 and Pivot R1 at 92.34, with a test of the 92.01 to 92.34 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34 weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "24% SELL", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 20-day and 50-day averages, while Thursday's 2.40 point gain and the 82.9 percent settle location describe a rebound attempt, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a test of the 50-day average rather than a renewed decline from the open.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above the 93.17 stall of the 18-day average, which would bring the 93.75 crossing price and Pivot R2 at 94.17 into play. On the other side, a move beneath Pivot S1 at 87.67 before any rebound would bring Thursday's 86.65 low and the 86.00 one-month low into play without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Friday Economic Calendar
Thursday's releases are complete. Preliminary productivity and costs were released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with productivity at 3.6 percent against a forecast of 2.7 percent and unit labour costs at minus 0.7 percent against a forecast of 0.4 percent, per the news-feed calendar. Weekly jobless claims of 189 thousand against a forecast of 196 thousand were listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed against the calendar. The UK central bank raised its rate to 4.00 percent from 3.75 percent with nine votes for the increase, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
On Friday, November 6, 2026, the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, remarks by a Federal Reserve Board official for 12:15 PM ET and consumer credit for 3:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists it. The preliminary consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET and remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 9:10 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Next week, the consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 and the delayed weekly petroleum report for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the first-order influence on crude for Friday is the 8:30 AM ET employment report through the dollar and yields, with diplomacy headlines the main unscheduled source of movement.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 50-day average for a second session, the composite reads "24% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while Thursday's rebound left a lower high at 91.32. A test of the 92.00 to 92.30 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 92.34 and around the 50-day average at 92.01, offers a short with a defined risk point above Pivot R1 at 92.34. Thursday's settle at 82.9 percent of its range sits near the top of that range, and diplomacy headlines can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that tests of the 50-day average are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 92.00 to 92.30
Stop Loss: 93.00 (above Pivot R1 at 92.34 and beneath the 93.17 stall of the 18-day average)
Target 1 (T1): 91.30 (beneath the 91.32 post-settle high)
Target 2 (T2): 90.45 (beneath the 90.52 settle)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 89.60 (above the Pivot Point at 89.50)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above the 93.17 stall of the 18-day average negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 92.30; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A weaker employment report that pulls the dollar lower, or weekend headline risk on diplomacy, could lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 93.00 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 93.17 stall becomes the reference, 0.17 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 4.50.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December WTI crude contract (CLZ26), prepared after Thursday's close on November 5, 2026 for the Friday, November 6, 2026 session. December is the contract the chart's continuous symbol tracks. Thursday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 97.01 less Pivot S3 at 83.00, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 94.17 less Pivot S2 at 84.83, divided by two, both return 4.67. Three times the 89.50 Pivot Point less the 90.52 settle gives 177.98, which solves to 91.325 and 86.655, the 91.32 high and the 86.65 low within the ladder's rounding. The provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Thursday bar carry the same 88.05 open, extremes and settle.
Thursday's card was written on the December contract and published at Wednesday's settle. It is graded across Thursday's whole session, on the 30-minute bars of the continuous symbol: 46 bars from the Wednesday 6:00 PM ET reopen to the 4:30 PM ET bar, labelled in Eastern standard time. The provider's December settlement row for 11/05 reads open 88.05, high 91.32, low 86.65, settle 90.52, volume 308,350. No price move is tied to a headline by this outlook.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for December, 259 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Thursday; the partial row of the reopened Friday session is excluded, and no reopened-session price is quoted. The oscillators and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:23 PM ET on Thursday. Wednesday's 11/04 row has been revised: December volume now reads 454,113 against the 423,829 cited in Thursday's outlook, and open interest, not reported then, reads 222,982. Thursday's open interest had not been reported in final form. The 90.35 print is placed in the 8:00 AM ET bar, where the 30-minute bars put it. The dollar index percentage is computed from the dated closes of 101.57 and 101.55.
No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude; the positioning inputs are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins and the open-interest and volume record. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news feed or its calendar. Clock times are Eastern standard time, as the review and the calendar state them.
Thursday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the gold contract’s Thursday outlook covers the metal whose December contract settled at 4,113.5 on Thursday, up 0.99 percent. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
Monday’s follow-up outlook for crude oil, written after Friday’s close, is here.
