At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November crude settled at 89.38, down 3.22 points or 3.48 percent from Monday's 92.60. It was the largest one-day decline since the 3.71 point loss of 09/21. The settle was the lowest since 88.57 on 09/04. The contract traded between 94.74 and 88.78, a 5.96 point range and the widest since the 6.03 point session of 09/21, and it finished at 10.1 percent of that range. Volume printed 313,854 contracts on the provider's dated daily record for Tuesday, against 370,326 on Monday's row.
The high came first. The provider's 30-minute series puts the 94.74 print in the 1:30 AM ET bar, and the contract then slid through the European hours to 90.13 in the 9:00 AM ET bar. A rebound to 91.76 in the 11:00 AM ET bar did not hold. The 2:00 PM ET bar reached 89.29 before the 2:30 PM ET settlement, and the 88.78 daily low printed in the 4:30 PM ET bar, after it. Post-settlement trade supplied the final 51 cents of the range.
Three forces got the credit. Provider commentary tied the decline to signs of a steady flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a dollar index at a two-month high, and an accelerated loss after the administration announced a release of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve. The news feed carried an energy-news item on the reserve offer at 2:31 PM ET. Brent's November contract settled at 102.59, down 2.69 points or 2.56 percent, per the news feed at 2:52 PM ET. WTI fell further. The Brent premium over November WTI widened to 13.21 from 12.68. After the settle, the industry group's weekly estimate carried on the news feed at 4:45 PM ET showed a crude build of 1.019 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.9 million. Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here. Its published 14-day average true range of 4.18 points is 4.68 percent of the settle.
November WTI settled at 89.38, down 3.48 percent, at 10.1 percent of a 94.74 to 88.78 range. That broke the 90.52 swing settle. The first overhead references are the 89.81 retracement and the 90.35 relative-strength line, with the 90.97 Pivot Point and the 91.25 to 91.27 pair above. Support starts at the 89.29 settle-window low and the 88.78 post-settlement low, then the 88.67 low of 09/22 and the 88.47 to 88.03 group. The primary setup is a short from 89.80 to 90.20, stop 91.40, targets 88.50, 87.20 and 85.80. Wednesday carries the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET. It is the first-order event for crude.
Tuesday's short, graded against the bar
Tuesday's outlook set a short from a rebound into 93.45 to 93.85 around the 93.46 Pivot Point, with a stop at 95.20, targets at 92.10, 90.55 and 89.00, and an outright invalidation on a settle above Pivot R1 at 95.68. Tuesday opened at 93.53, marked a 94.74 high and an 88.78 low, and settled at 89.38; the dated 09/29 row of the provider's daily record carries the same four prices. The band traded at once. The 6:00 PM ET reopen bar ran from 93.10 to 93.77, across the bottom of the band, and the overnight high later printed 89 cents above its top.
We put the stop at 95.20. Tuesday's high printed 94.74 in the 1:30 AM ET bar, 46 cents beneath it, and no 30-minute bar reached it. The targets came later, in order. The 92.10 first target first traded in the 5:30 AM ET bar, whose low was 92.08. The 90.55 second target first traded in the 8:30 AM ET bar, low 90.33. The 89.00 third target did not trade before the settle, because the settle-window low was 89.29; the 4:00 PM ET bar, after the settlement, printed 88.91. The 30-minute series shows that order across bars. It does not show fills, and this outlook asserts no result for the card.
One clause turned against the card first. It removed the edge on acceptance above the 93.96 18-day crossing, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 93.96 with the 94.06 one-deviation resistance also cleared. The 12:00 AM ET through 1:30 AM ET bars closed at 94.19, 94.32, 94.35 and 94.10, four consecutive closes above both levels. By the card's own terms the edge was gone overnight, hours before the first target traded. The outright invalidation held, with the settle 6.30 points beneath 95.68. The macro override named a confirmed attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian withdrawal from the talks or a United States military response. Tonight's reporting carries threats and mediation. None of those three events appears in it.
The range work missed low. The low-range case, 91.80 to 93.90, lost its bottom by 3.02 points at the low and by 2.42 at the settle, and the high ran 84 cents over its top. The most likely band, 90.90 to 94.70, gave way by 2.12 at the low and by 1.52 at the settle. Even the high-range case, 89.40 to 96.60, lost 62 cents at the low. It missed the settle by two cents.
The path call missed as well. That outlook weighted a settle between 90.54 and 93.46 above a settle outside it, and Tuesday settled 1.16 beneath 90.54. This time the 30-minute series scores the session bands. Globex, 91.90 to 94.70, traded 93.00 to 94.74 through the 2:30 AM ET bar, four cents over its top. London, 91.80 to 94.90, gave way by a full point at 90.80. The United States morning, 91.20 to 95.00, lost 1.14 at 90.06, and the afternoon, 91.00 to 94.80, lost 1.71 at 89.29 before the settle.
The high first, the low about 15 hours later
Tuesday opened at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen at 93.53, 93 cents above Monday's settle. Asia was firm. The bars from the reopen through the 1:00 AM ET bar held between 93.00 and 94.38, and the 1:30 AM ET bar added the 94.74 high before closing at 94.10.
Europe did the selling. The 4:00 AM ET bar reached 92.66, the 6:30 AM ET bar 91.80, the 7:30 AM ET bar 90.80 and the 9:00 AM ET bar 90.13. A news-feed sentiment item at 9:18 AM ET was headlined that hopes for an Iran deal pushed oil lower, which describes the morning move; no cause is drawn from it.
New York bought some of it back. The 10:00 AM ET bar, which contained the job openings and consumer confidence releases, traded from 90.73 to 91.46, and the 11:00 AM ET bar reached 91.76. It faded. The 11:30 AM ET bar opened at 91.43 and traded down to 90.06, and the midday bars held between 90.01 and 90.85. The 2:00 PM ET bar opened at 90.11 and traded down to 89.29, a move that coincided with a 2:00 PM ET news-feed item in which the New York Fed president said one further rate increase is likely this year if the economy meets expectations. The series shows the move and the headline in the same bar. It does not establish causation.
Settlement came at 2:30 PM ET, at 89.38. Electronic trade kept sliding. The 2:30 PM ET bar traded between 89.06 and 89.62, and the 4:30 PM ET bar printed the 88.78 daily low and closed at 88.94. The settle-window range was therefore 94.74 to 89.29. The Wednesday session reopened at 89.00, 38 cents beneath the settle. The provider's overview page now shows that new session, with an 89.07 high and an 88.58 low, and neither is used as Tuesday's range.
The extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from its outer pairs. The third resistance point at 99.11 minus the third support point at 81.23, divided by three, returns 5.96, and 96.93 minus 85.01, divided by two, returns the same. Three times the 90.97 Pivot Point less the 89.38 settle gives a 183.53 high-plus-low sum, and 94.74 with 88.78 reproduces all seven rungs. The ladder checks out. The chart's completed Tuesday bar reads 93.53, 94.74, 88.78 and 89.38.
Both extremes stepped down. The 94.74 high sits 1.80 points beneath Monday's 96.54 and the 88.78 low 2.47 points beneath Monday's 91.25. That low is the weakest print since the 88.71 low of 09/23, and it sits 11 cents above the 88.67 low of 09/22, the low of the prior week. The prior week, September 21 through September 25, spanned 97.22 to 88.67. Tuesday held inside it, by 11 cents. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69, set on 09/15/26, sits 12.31 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 82.47, set on 08/31/26, 6.91 points beneath it. Across five sessions the contract lost 1.14 points or 1.26 percent from the 90.52 settle of 09/22. No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes stand in as the quarterly reference.
Eleven settles tell the swing: 100.75, 97.51, 97.23, 96.08, 92.37, 90.52, 92.16, 94.61, 92.41, 92.60 and 89.38. The rebound from the 90.52 settle of 09/22 peaked with Thursday's 96.78 high, and Monday's 96.54 was a lower high. Tuesday broke the swing settle. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 6.03, 5.17, 4.35, 5.55, 3.24, 5.29 and 5.96.
The retracement grid published for Wednesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 89.81, 43 cents above the settle, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 92.08 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 94.35. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high sits at 88.47 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 84.39. No four-hour series was captured. The 30-minute series is the only intraday evidence.
The averages come from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, 259 completed sessions through Tuesday. The 5-day stands at 92.23, the 9-day at 93.04, the 20-day at 93.14, the 50-day at 85.23, the 100-day at 81.49 and the 200-day at 74.48. The settle sits 2.85 points beneath the 5-day, 3.66 beneath the 9-day and 3.76 beneath the 20-day, and 4.15 points above the 50-day.
One average rose on a down day. The 20-day climbed 27 cents from Monday's 92.87 even though the settle fell 3.22 points, because the 08/31 settle of 84.06 left its window and 89.38 replaced it. The 9-day fell 90 cents from 93.94 as the 09/16 settle of 97.51 left, and the 5-day fell 23 cents from 92.46 as the 09/22 settle of 90.52 left. The projection grid puts Wednesday's 9-day crossing at 92.52. The 18-day crossing sits at 94.04 and the 40-day at 87.11.
Momentum slid. Oscillators are cited as published for the Wednesday session. That page was read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the latest value in each may include live Globex trade rather than the settle. Relative strength reads 41.69 on the 9-day, 48.06 on the 14-day and 51.44 on the 20-day. Stochastics sit near the bottom of their range. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 7.60 percent and the 14-day 5.45 percent, with the 14-day %K at 22.32 percent and %D at 34.39 percent. The 14-3 day raw stochastic's 20 percent threshold sits at 91.27 and its 30 percent threshold at 92.58.
Direction still points up, by less. On the 9-day the directional index reads 29.22 with positive direction at 20.39 and negative at 17.70; the 14-day reads 28.66, positive at 22.61 over negative at 16.84. Historic volatility runs 32.90 percent on the 9-day and 45.20 percent on the 14-day. The composite multi-indicator read for Wednesday fell to 24 percent buy from 48 percent in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as soft and direction as weakest. It read 16 percent a week ago and 24 percent a month ago. The short-horizon group averages hold, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy.
Volatility sets the scale. The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.18 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.82; the 9-day figures are 4.50 and 4.65, the 20-day figures 3.93 and 4.31. Tuesday's 5.96 point range was 1.24 times the 14-day average daily range. A one-range projection from 89.38 on the 14-day average true range frames Wednesday between 85.20 and 93.56. The published deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 87.51 to 91.25, two spans 86.74 to 92.02 and three spans 86.14 to 92.62. The bands describe settlement dispersion and say nothing about intraday reach.
Hormuz flow, a reserve release and a build after the settle
Tuesday's reporting did not settle the negotiations in either direction, and every element of it is reporting rather than settled fact. The headlines ran both ways. A press report carried on the news feed at 2:31 PM ET said mediators are pushing to break the United States and Iran deadlock. Threats followed. At 3:01 PM ET an energy-news item described Iranian threats against energy infrastructure across the Middle East as the Hormuz standoff deepens. At 3:24 PM ET the Iranian president's office said Iran will not compromise on nuclear rights, and at 3:56 PM ET the President said Iran is doing very poorly and that he does not know whether it will give up. The news feed carried all of these after the 2:30 PM ET settlement. None of them coincided with the settle-window decline.
The supply side carried the attribution. Provider commentary attributed part of Tuesday's decline to signs that a steady flow of crude is leaving the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. A news-feed item at 7:49 AM ET, a press report, said the President backs Russia sanction relief tied to a prisoner release; no supply measure followed in the captured feed. Nothing captured tonight shows a Venezuela supply development.
Producers sent quieter signals. A news-feed item at 3:22 PM ET quoted delegates saying the producer alliance is likely to keep its plan for steady quotas. That is reporting, and no decision was captured. Provider commentary cited tracking data showing Saudi crude exports of 5.28 million barrels a day in September, the highest in seven months, and said Saudi Arabia restored about 3.5 million barrels a day of the 7 million barrel a day capacity of its East-West crude line. The provider described both as supply-side negatives for the flat price. Neither is a measurement taken here.
The inventory numbers arrived late. The industry group's weekly estimate, carried on the news feed between 4:43 PM and 4:55 PM ET, showed a crude build of 1.019 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.9 million, a gasoline build of 2.991 million, a distillate draw of 0.286 million and a Cushing build of 0.233 million. Those figures came after the settle, with the contract already trading beneath 89.20 in electronic trade. The calendar lists the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on September 30, 2026, and the news-feed calendar a forecast draw of 0.71 million barrels against the prior build of 2.969 million. On the reserve side, provider commentary said the administration will release up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve, and the 2:31 PM ET energy-news item described a further 40 million barrel offer with diesel above 6 dollars.
Products fell less than crude. November gasoline settled at 3.1323 dollars a gallon, down 0.0255 or 0.81 percent, and provider commentary described gasoline at a two-and-a-half-week low. November heating oil settled at 4.51, up 0.0147 or 0.33 percent, per the provider's daily record. Both product margins widened on the settlement arithmetic. The gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, went to 42.18 from 40.03, and the heating oil margin to 100.04 from 96.20. At 5:01 PM ET an energy-news item said the White House is weighing red-dyed diesel relief as fuel prices rise. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured.
Rates stayed high. The dollar index closed at 101.37, up 0.17 points, and provider commentary described it as a two-month high. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.26 percent, up 2 basis points, after a 5.29 percent session high (provider record read at 6:46 PM ET) that provider commentary described as a new 19-year high; the thirty-year closed at 5.59 percent. A market note reported that the priced probability of an October rate increase fell to 45 percent from 70 percent after the New York Fed president's remarks, and provider commentary gave a figure of 52 percent. The two sources disagree. Neither is used as a level input.
Equities split. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,670.84, down 0.17 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index at 30,339.33, up 0.21 percent. Gold's December contract settled at 4,179.7, up 11.3 points or 0.27 percent. The job openings report showed 7.079 million openings against a 7.2275 million forecast, and the consumer confidence index printed 81.9 against a forecast of 89, per the news-feed calendar; provider commentary described the latter as a 12-year low. In our interpretation crude was the macro driver on Tuesday, and its decline eased part of the inflation pressure that had lifted yields on Monday.
Positioning data did not move. The positioning report as of September 22, 2026 is unchanged since Monday. Managed money held 223,190 contracts long against 121,362 short, a net long of 101,828. Commercials held 847,389 long against 1,017,278 short, a net short of 169,889, and swap dealers 111,924 long against 584,713 short. The next report covers positions as of Tuesday, September 29. The provider's overview shows open interest on the November contract at 285,845, the figure on Monday's dated row. Tuesday's row carries 294,853, which repeats a value published on Monday evening, so no change in open interest is asserted for Tuesday.
One gap is deliberate. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude: no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is borrowed from another instrument. The positioning inputs for crude are the weekly positioning report, the weekly inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
The trade map for Wednesday
Overhead, the first references sit close. The 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low is at 89.81, 43 cents above the settle, and the 14-day relative-strength 50 percent line at 90.35, with the 90.52 swing settle of 09/22 just above it and the Pivot Point at 90.97. One deviation resistance at 91.25 and the stochastic 20 percent threshold at 91.27 sit two cents apart. Tuesday's 91.76 rebound high in the 11:00 AM ET bar sits above that pair. The next band runs from two deviation resistance at 92.02 and the 92.08 half retracement through the 92.52 9-day crossing and the 92.58 stochastic 30 percent threshold to three deviation resistance at 92.62. That band spans 60 cents. Pivot R1 at 93.15 and the 20-day average at 93.14 sit one cent apart above that band. Tuesday's 94.74 high, the 94.35 retracement and Pivot R2 at 96.93 are the extended references.
Beneath the settle, the 89.29 settle-window low and the 88.78 post-settlement low come first, then the 88.67 low of 09/22. The 88.47 retracement from the 13-week high, the 88.30 published target price and the 88.03 18-day average stall form the next group. Those three span 44 cents. One deviation support at 87.51 and Pivot S1 at 87.19 sit 32 cents apart, with the 40-day crossing at 87.11 eight cents beneath S1. Two deviation support at 86.74, the 86.51 three-and-ten day crossover stall, three deviation support at 86.14 and Pivot S2 at 85.01 are the deeper references.
The primary setup is a short from a rebound into 89.80 to 90.20. That band sits at the 89.81 retracement and beneath the 90.35 relative-strength line and the 90.97 Pivot Point. Tuesday settled 3.48 percent lower at 10.1 percent of a 5.96 point range, 3.76 points beneath the 20-day settlement average. The composite read fell from 48 to 24 percent buy. The build estimate came after the settle. A rebound toward the retracement and the relative-strength line offers a short with a defined risk point above one deviation resistance. The directional readings still show positive direction above negative and the Strait headlines can reverse quickly, so the setup is an analyst judgment against a live escalation risk. The stop sits 1.40 from the 90.00 entry midpoint.
The reopen sits beneath the entry band. The Wednesday session reopened at 89.00 at 6:00 PM ET, 38 cents beneath the settle and 80 cents beneath the band, after post-settlement trade had already carried the contract to 88.78. Asia opens below the band. Chinese manufacturing survey data and Australian consumer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The night session starts beneath the 89.29 settle-window low and the 89.81 retracement, so the first test is whether the post-settlement weakness extends toward the 88.47 to 88.03 group. Bias is mildly lower beneath 89.81. The expected Globex band is roughly 87.80 to 90.00, and a fresh Strait incident is the risk that would lift it toward 90.97.
Europe lists German unemployment at 3:55 AM ET and German consumer prices at 8:00 AM ET, forecast 3.1 percent year on year, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Tuesday's decline began in this window, per the 30-minute series. The captured feed does not time the Hormuz flow reports, and the only timed reserve item arrived at 2:31 PM ET, after the settle, so no ordering between those reports and the European decline is asserted. Bias is neutral to lower, with an expected band of roughly 87.60 to 90.30.
Wednesday's New York morning starts early. The private payroll survey is listed at 8:15 AM ET, forecast 74,000 against 38,000, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The calendar lists the personal income and outlays report and the third estimate of second-quarter output at 8:30 AM ET, and the news-feed calendar carries a core year-on-year forecast of 3.3 percent. The weekly petroleum status report follows at 10:30 AM ET. It is the first-order release for crude after the industry group's estimate showed a build. A hold beneath 90.35 through the morning keeps the 87.51 to 88.47 area in reach; acceptance above 90.97 returns the contract toward the 91.25 to 92.08 band. Expected band roughly 87.40 to 90.90.
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude settles at 2:30 PM ET. Wednesday is also the last session of the quarter. The afternoon carries the reaction to the inventory report into the settle. Expected band roughly 87.20 to 90.60.
After the pit closes, a Federal Reserve governor speaks at 3:25 PM ET, and Micron's quarterly results follow the equity close with the call at 4:30 PM ET, both on the calendar. Further Federal Reserve speakers are listed at 5:10 PM ET and 6:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The employment report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on October 2, 2026. The provider lists the November contract's expiration as 10/20/26.
Three scenarios frame the full session. The low-range case runs 87.60 to 90.00, the mid-range case, which is the most likely, 86.80 to 90.60, and the high-range case 85.40 to 91.80. In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds Globex beneath the 89.81 retracement as the post-settlement weakness and the industry group's build are digested, with rotation between the 88.47 retracement and the 89.29 settle-window low through the European hours. The 10:30 AM ET report then decides whether the contract tests the 87.51 to 87.19 group. A settle between 87.19 and 90.35 is weighted above a settle outside that band. Three readings carry that weighting. Tuesday closed at 10.1 percent of its range, the composite read fell to 24 percent buy and the settle broke beneath the 90.52 swing settle of 09/22. A security incident in the Strait or a collapse of the mediated talks would invalidate this reading and put the 90.97 to 92.08 band back in play.
Tuesday's post-settlement low stopped 11 cents above the prior week's 88.67. Wednesday reopened 33 cents above it.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Wednesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
Carried below in the review’s own order: the level notes from sections 3.1 and 3.2, the executive summary from section 1, sections 2.1 to 2.6, sections 4.1 to 4.6, the coverage note from section 5, the session-by-session forecast from section 6, the Wednesday calendar from section 7 and the primary setup from section 8.
3.1 Resistance and 3.2 Support, level notes
The first overhead references are the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 89.81 and the 14-day relative-strength 50 percent line at 90.35, with the Pivot Point at 90.97 above them. One standard deviation resistance at 91.25 and the stochastic 20 percent threshold at 91.27 sit two cents apart, and Tuesday's 91.76 rebound high in the 11:00 AM ET bar sits above that pair. The next band runs from two standard deviations resistance at 92.02 and the 50 percent retracement at 92.08 through the 9-day average crossing at 92.52 and the stochastic 30 percent threshold at 92.58 to three standard deviations resistance at 92.62. Pivot R1 at 93.15 and the 20-day settlement average at 93.14 sit one cent apart above that band. Tuesday's 94.74 high, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 94.35 and Pivot R2 at 96.93 are the extended references.
The 89.29 settle-window low in the 2:00 PM ET bar and the 88.78 post-settlement daily low sit directly beneath the settle, and the 88.67 low of 09/22 follows. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.47, the published target price at 88.30 and the 18-day average stall at 88.03 form the next group. Beneath that, one standard deviation support at 87.51 and Pivot S1 at 87.19 sit 32 cents apart, with the 40-day average crossing at 87.11 eight cents beneath Pivot S1. Two standard deviations support at 86.74, three standard deviations support at 86.14, the three-and-ten day crossover stall at 86.51 and Pivot S2 at 85.01 are the deeper references.
1. Executive Summary
The November crude contract settled at 89.38 on Tuesday, down 3.22 points or 3.48 percent from Monday's 92.60 settle, after trading between 94.74 and 88.78, a 5.96 point daily range. It was the largest one-day decline since the 3.71 point loss of 09/21, the lowest settle since the 88.57 settle of 09/04, and the widest daily range since the 6.03 point session of 09/21. The row finished at 10.1 percent of its range, and the 5.96 point range was 1.24 times the published 14-day average daily range of 4.82 points.
The provider's 30-minute series fixes the order and the windows. The contract reopened Monday evening at 93.53, printed the 94.74 high in the 1:30 AM ET bar, and then declined through the European hours to 90.13 in the 9:00 AM ET bar. A rebound to 91.76 in the 11:00 AM ET bar did not hold, the 11:30 AM ET bar opened at 91.43 and traded down to 90.06, and the 2:00 PM ET bar reached 89.29 before the 2:30 PM ET settlement at 89.38. The 88.78 low in the daily row printed in the 4:30 PM ET bar, after the settle, so the settle-window range was 94.74 to 89.29 and the final 51 cents of the daily range came in post-settlement electronic trade.
Provider commentary tied the decline to signs of a steady flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a dollar index at a two-month high, and an accelerated loss after the administration announced a release of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve; the news feed carried an energy-news item at 2:31 PM ET on the reserve offer. Brent's November contract settled at 102.59, down 2.69 points or 2.56 percent per the news feed at 2:52 PM ET, so WTI fell further than Brent and the Brent premium over the November WTI contract widened to 13.21 from 12.68. After the settle, the industry group's weekly estimate carried on the news feed at 4:45 PM ET showed a crude build of 1.019 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.9 million.
Crude remains the most volatile of the four instruments covered here; the published 14-day average true range of 4.18 points is 4.68 percent of the settle. The primary setup below is a short from the 89.80 to 90.20 band beneath the Pivot Point at 90.97, stopped above one standard deviation resistance, with objectives at 88.50, 87.20 and an extended 85.80.
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Tuesday session opened at 93.53 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 93 cents above Monday's settle, marked a daily high of 94.74 and a daily low of 88.78, and settled at 89.38 at 2:30 PM ET. The provider's 30-minute series, 46 bars from the reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar, places the high in the 1:30 AM ET bar and the daily low in the 4:30 PM ET bar, so the session made its high first and its low about 15 hours later.
The Asian hours were firm: the bars from the reopen through the 1:00 AM ET bar held between 93.00 and 94.38, and the 1:30 AM ET bar added the 94.74 high before closing at 94.10. The decline began in the European morning. The 4:00 AM ET bar reached 92.66, the 6:30 AM ET bar 91.80, the 7:30 AM ET bar 90.80 and the 9:00 AM ET bar 90.13. A news-feed sentiment item at 9:18 AM ET was headlined that hopes for an Iran deal pushed oil lower, which describes the morning move rather than explaining it.
The United States morning brought a partial recovery: the 10:00 AM ET bar, which contained the job openings and consumer confidence releases, traded from 90.73 to 91.46, and the 11:00 AM ET bar reached 91.76. The 11:30 AM ET bar then opened at 91.43 and traded down to 90.06, and the midday bars held between 90.01 and 90.85. The 2:00 PM ET bar opened at 90.11 and traded down to 89.29, a move that coincided with a 2:00 PM ET news-feed item in which the New York Fed president said one further rate increase is likely this year if the economy meets expectations. The series shows the move and the headline in the same bar; it does not establish causation.
After the 2:30 PM ET settlement, electronic trade continued lower. The 2:30 PM ET bar traded between 89.06 and 89.62, and the 4:30 PM ET bar printed the 88.78 daily low and closed at 88.94. The Wednesday session reopened at 89.00.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. The third resistance point at 99.11 minus the third support point at 81.23, divided by three, returns 5.96, and the second resistance point at 96.93 minus the second support point at 85.01, divided by two, returns the same 5.96. Three times the Pivot Point of 90.97 less the 89.38 settle gives a high plus low sum of 183.53, and the resulting pair of 94.74 and 88.78 reproduces all seven published rungs. The chart's completed Tuesday daily bar reads 93.53, 94.74, 88.78 and 89.38, an independent confirmation of the same values, and the intraday series shows that the ladder's low belongs to the post-settlement window.
Because Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET, the provider's overview page now shows the Wednesday session: its open of 89.00, high of 89.07 and low of 88.58 belong to the new session and are not used as Tuesday's range anywhere here.
2.2 Daily Structure
Tuesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Monday: the 94.74 high sits 1.80 points beneath Monday's 96.54, and the 88.78 low sits 2.47 points beneath Monday's 91.25. The 88.78 low is the lowest print since the 88.71 low of 09/23, and it sits 11 cents above the 88.67 low of 09/22, which is the low of the prior week.
The prior week, September 21 through September 25, spanned 97.22 to 88.67, so Tuesday's range sits inside it by 11 cents on the low side. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 101.69, set on 09/15/26, sits 12.31 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 82.47, set on 08/31/26, sits 6.91 points beneath it. Across five sessions the contract lost 1.14 points or 1.26 percent from the 90.52 settle of 09/22.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
The daily settlement sequence after the 09/15 peak reads 100.75, 97.51, 97.23, 96.08, 92.37, 90.52, 92.16, 94.61, 92.41, 92.60 and 89.38. The rebound from the 90.52 settle of 09/22 peaked with Thursday's 96.78 high and Monday's 96.54 lower high, and Tuesday's settle broke beneath the 90.52 swing settle. Daily ranges for the last seven sessions ran 6.03, 5.17, 4.35, 5.55, 3.24, 5.29 and 5.96.
The retracement grid published for Wednesday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 89.81, 43 cents above the settle, the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 92.08 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 94.35. The 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high sits at 88.47 and the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 84.39. No four-hour series was captured; the 30-minute series in section 2.1 is the only intraday evidence used.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the November contract, 259 completed sessions through Tuesday. The 5-day average stands at 92.23, the 9-day at 93.04, the 20-day at 93.14, the 50-day at 85.23, the 100-day at 81.49 and the 200-day at 74.48.
The 89.38 settle sits 2.85 points beneath the 5-day average, 3.66 beneath the 9-day and 3.76 beneath the 20-day, and 4.15 points above the 50-day. The 20-day average rose 27 cents from Monday's 92.87 even though the settle fell 3.22 points, because the 08/31 settle of 84.06 left the 20-day window and was replaced by 89.38. The 9-day average fell 90 cents from 93.94 as the 09/16 settle of 97.51 left its window, and the 5-day fell 23 cents from 92.46 as the 09/22 settle of 90.52 left.
The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Wednesday: 92.52 for the 9-day, 94.04 for the 18-day and 87.11 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Wednesday session, which was read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, so the most recent value in each may include live Globex trade rather than the settle. Relative strength reads 41.69 on the 9-day, 48.06 on the 14-day and 51.44 on the 20-day.
Stochastics sit near the bottom of their range. The 9-day raw stochastic reads 7.60 percent and the 14-day 5.45 percent, with the 14-day %K at 22.32 percent and %D at 34.39 percent. The published grid places the 14-3 day raw stochastic 20 percent threshold at 91.27 and its 30 percent threshold at 92.58.
The directional system still reads positive direction above negative direction, with the gap narrowing. On the 9-day the directional index reads 29.22 with positive direction at 20.39 and negative direction at 17.70; on the 14-day it reads 28.66 with positive direction at 22.61 over negative at 16.84. Historic volatility reads 32.90 percent on the 9-day and 45.20 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Wednesday is 24 percent buy, down from 48 percent buy in the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as soft and direction as weakest. The snapshot history reads 16 percent buy a week ago and 24 percent buy a month ago. The short-horizon group averages hold, the medium-horizon group 25 percent buy and the long-horizon group 67 percent buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.18 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.82 points; the 9-day figures are 4.50 and 4.65, and the 20-day figures 3.93 and 4.31. Tuesday's 5.96 point range was 1.24 times the 14-day average daily range.
A one-range projection from the 89.38 settle using the 14-day average true range frames Wednesday between 85.20 and 93.56. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 87.51 to 91.25, two spans 86.74 to 92.02 and three spans 86.14 to 92.62. These bands describe settlement dispersion and say nothing about intraday reach.
4.1 OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi and Russia Signals)
A news-feed item at 3:22 PM ET quoted delegates saying the producer alliance is likely to keep its plan for steady quotas; that is reporting, and no decision was captured. Provider commentary cited tracking data showing Saudi crude exports of 5.28 million barrels a day in September, the highest in seven months, and said Saudi Arabia restored about 3.5 million barrels a day of the 7 million barrel a day capacity of its East-West crude line. Both are supply-side negatives for the flat price as described by the provider, and neither is a measurement taken here.
4.2 Inventory Data (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, Strategic Reserve)
The industry group's weekly estimate, carried on the news feed between 4:43 PM and 4:55 PM ET, showed a crude build of 1.019 million barrels against a forecast draw of 1.9 million, a gasoline build of 2.991 million, a distillate draw of 0.286 million and a Cushing build of 0.233 million. Those figures arrived after the settle, while the contract was already trading beneath 89.20 in electronic trade.
The calendar lists the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on September 30, 2026, with the news-feed calendar listing a forecast draw of 0.71 million barrels against the prior build of 2.969 million. On the reserve side, provider commentary said the administration will release up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve, and an energy-news item on the feed at 2:31 PM ET described a further 40 million barrel offer with diesel above 6 dollars.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop (Middle East, Iran, Russia and Ukraine, Venezuela)
Tuesday's reporting did not settle the negotiations in either direction, and every element of it is reporting rather than settled fact. A press report carried on the news feed at 2:31 PM ET said mediators are pushing to break the United States and Iran deadlock. At 3:01 PM ET an energy-news item described Iranian threats against energy infrastructure across the Middle East as the Hormuz standoff deepens, at 3:24 PM ET the Iranian president's office said Iran will not compromise on nuclear rights, and at 3:56 PM ET the President said Iran is doing very poorly and that he does not know whether it will give up. All of these items were carried after the 2:30 PM ET settlement, so none of them coincided with the settle-window decline.
Provider commentary attributed part of Tuesday's decline to signs that a steady flow of crude is leaving the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. A news-feed item at 7:49 AM ET, a press report, said the President backs Russia sanction relief tied to a prisoner release; no supply measure followed in the captured feed. Nothing captured tonight shows a Venezuela supply development.
4.4 Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilisation, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)
The product complex fell less than crude. The November gasoline contract settled at 3.1323 dollars a gallon, down 0.0255 or 0.81 percent, and provider commentary described gasoline at a two-and-a-half-week low. The November heating oil contract settled at 4.51, up 0.0147 or 0.33 percent, per the provider's daily record. Both product margins widened on the settlement arithmetic as the WTI contract fell 3.48 percent: the gasoline margin, 42 gallons times the gasoline settle less the WTI settle, went to 42.18 from 40.03, and the heating oil margin to 100.04 from 96.20.
The diesel policy question continued: an energy-news item at 5:01 PM ET said the White House is weighing red-dyed diesel relief as fuel prices rise. No refinery utilisation figure and no seasonal demand series were captured, so neither is asserted.
4.5 Dollar and Cross-Asset (Dollar Index, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk Appetite)
The dollar index closed at 101.37, up 0.17 points, and provider commentary described it as a two-month high. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.26 percent, up 2 basis points, after a 5.29 percent session high (provider record read at 6:46 PM ET) that provider commentary described as a new 19-year high; the thirty-year closed at 5.59 percent. A market note reported that the priced probability of an October rate increase fell to 45 percent from 70 percent after the New York Fed president's remarks, and provider commentary gave a figure of 52 percent; the two sources disagree and neither is used as a level input.
Equities were mixed: the S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,670.84, down 0.17 percent, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index at 30,339.33, up 0.21 percent. Gold's December contract settled at 4,179.7, up 11.3 points or 0.27 percent. The job openings report showed 7.079 million openings against a 7.2275 million forecast, and the consumer confidence index printed 81.9 against a forecast of 89, per the news-feed calendar; provider commentary described the latter as a 12-year low. In our interpretation crude was the macro driver on Tuesday, and its decline eased part of the inflation pressure that had lifted yields on Monday.
4.6 Institutional Positioning (Commitments Data, Money Manager and Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)
The positioning report as of September 22, 2026, unchanged since Monday, shows managed money long 223,190 contracts against short 121,362, a net long of 101,828. Commercials held 847,389 long against 1,017,278 short, a net short of 169,889, and swap dealers held 111,924 long against 584,713 short. The next report covers positions as of Tuesday, September 29.
The provider's overview shows open interest on the November contract at 285,845. The daily row for Tuesday carries an open interest figure of 294,853 that repeats a value published on Monday evening, so no change in open interest is asserted for Tuesday.
5. No liquid options proxy
Crude is covered here without a positioning dataset. There is no dealer-positioning surface read for this instrument, no gamma map, no options concentration levels and no flow attribution, and none is inferred from any other instrument. Every level in sections 3.1 and 3.2 originates in published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the provider's daily record, or the completed-session extremes described in section 2.1.
This is a statement about coverage, not about the existence of listed crude options. The positioning inputs used for crude are the weekly positioning report, the weekly inventory report, the Brent spread and the product margins.
Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex and Asia)
The Wednesday session reopened at 89.00 at 6:00 PM ET, 38 cents beneath the settle, after post-settlement trade had already carried the contract to 88.78. Chinese manufacturing survey data and Australian consumer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The night session starts beneath the 89.29 settle-window low and the 89.81 retracement, so the first test is whether the post-settlement weakness extends toward the 88.47 to 88.03 group. Bias mildly lower beneath 89.81, expected Globex band roughly 87.80 to 90.00, with a fresh Strait incident the risk that would lift it toward 90.97.
London Session (3:00 AM ET to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)
The European morning carries German unemployment at 3:55 AM ET and German consumer prices at 8:00 AM ET, forecast 3.1 percent year on year, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Tuesday's decline began in this window, per the 30-minute series; the captured feed does not time the Hormuz flow reports, and the only timed reserve item arrived at 2:31 PM ET, after the settle, so no ordering between those reports and the European decline is asserted. Bias neutral to lower, expected band roughly 87.60 to 90.30.
Morning Session (9:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, United States Open and Pit Session)
The calendar lists the personal income and outlays report at 8:30 AM ET, with the news-feed calendar listing a core year-on-year forecast of 3.3 percent. The weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET, and it is the first-order release for crude after the industry group's estimate showed a build. A hold beneath 90.35 through the morning keeps the 87.51 to 88.47 area in reach; acceptance above 90.97 returns the contract toward the 91.25 to 92.08 band. Expected band roughly 87.40 to 90.90.
Afternoon Session (12:00 PM ET to 2:30 PM ET Wednesday, NYMEX Pit Close)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and crude's settlement falls at 2:30 PM ET. Wednesday is also the last session of the quarter. The afternoon carries the reaction to the inventory report into the settle. Expected band roughly 87.20 to 90.60.
Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)
A Federal Reserve governor speaks at 3:25 PM ET, and Micron's quarterly results follow the equity close, with the call at 4:30 PM ET, both on the calendar. Further Federal Reserve speakers are listed at 5:10 PM ET and 6:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The employment report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on October 2, 2026.
Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 87.60 to 90.00. Mid-range scenario (most likely): 86.80 to 90.60. High-range scenario: 85.40 to 91.80.
Most Likely Path
In our analyst judgment the most probable path holds the Globex session beneath the 89.81 retracement as the post-settlement weakness and the industry group's build are digested, with rotation between the 88.47 retracement and the 89.29 settle-window low through the European hours. Through the United States morning the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET on September 30, 2026 decides whether the contract tests the 87.51 to 87.19 group, and a settle between 87.19 and 90.35 is weighted above a settle outside that band, because Tuesday closed at 10.1 percent of its range, the composite read fell to 24 percent buy and the settle broke beneath the 90.52 swing settle of 09/22. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a security incident in the Strait or a collapse of the mediated talks, which would put the 90.97 to 92.08 band back in play.
7. Wednesday Economic Calendar
The Wednesday session reopened at 6:00 PM ET Tuesday. Chinese manufacturing survey data and Australian consumer prices are listed at 9:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The European morning lists United Kingdom output data at 2:00 AM ET, French consumer prices at 2:45 AM ET, German unemployment at 3:55 AM ET and German consumer prices at 8:00 AM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.
The United States morning carries the private payroll survey at 8:15 AM ET, forecast 74,000 against 38,000, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, then the personal income and outlays report and the third estimate of second-quarter output at 8:30 AM ET, both on the calendar. The weekly petroleum status report follows at 10:30 AM ET, with a forecast draw of 0.71 million barrels on the news-feed calendar. A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 1:30 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, and a Federal Reserve governor speaks at 3:25 PM ET, on the calendar. Micron's results follow the equity close with the call at 4:30 PM ET, on the calendar.
The November contract's expiration is listed as 10/20/26 by the provider. The single first-order event for crude on Wednesday is the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET, after the industry group's estimate showed a crude build against a forecast draw.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: Tuesday settled 3.48 percent lower at 10.1 percent of a 5.96 point range, beneath the Pivot Point at 90.97 and 3.76 points beneath the 20-day settlement average, while the composite read fell from 48 to 24 percent buy and the industry group's estimate showed a crude build after the settle; a rebound toward the 89.81 retracement and the 90.35 relative-strength line offers a short with a defined risk point above one standard deviation resistance. The directional readings still show positive direction above negative direction and the Strait headlines can reverse quickly, so the setup is an analyst judgment against a live escalation risk.
Entry Zone: 89.80 to 90.20
Stop Loss: 91.40 (above one standard deviation resistance at 91.25 and the Pivot Point at 90.97)
Target 1 (T1): 88.50 (three cents above the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 88.47)
Target 2 (T2): 87.20 (one cent above Pivot S1 at 87.19)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 85.80 (beneath three standard deviations support at 86.14 and above Pivot S2 at 85.01)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3, from the 90.00 entry midpoint against a 1.40 point stop distance
Invalidation: A settle above the Pivot Point at 90.97 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above 90.35 rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 90.35 with the 89.81 retracement held beneath.
Macro override: A confirmed attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian withdrawal from the talks, or a weekly inventory report showing a large draw would restore the supply-risk premium. In that scenario the short is wrong immediately, and the 91.25 to 92.08 band becomes the reference within one 14-day average true range of 4.18 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the November NYMEX WTI crude contract, CLX26, the November ’26 month, tracked on the continuous CL1! chart and prepared after Tuesday’s close on September 29, 2026 for the Wednesday, September 30, 2026 session. The contract domain was checked before any level was used: the daily chart’s reading of 88.68 with its stated change of minus 0.78 percent returns 89.38, the provider’s published previous close, and the chart’s completed Tuesday bar equals the provider’s settlement row, so chart and levels sit on the same November contract. The day high, day low and open shown on the provider’s overview page belong to the Wednesday session and are not presented anywhere here as Tuesday’s range.
Tuesday’s session extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs, checked against all seven published rungs and reproduced by the chart’s daily bar. The 5-day, 9-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages were computed from the provider’s 259-session daily settlement series. Volume and open interest are quoted from the dated rows of that daily record for 09/28 and 09/29; the partial row dated 09/30 belongs to the reopened session and is not used. The 09/28 row now reads volume 370,326 and open interest 285,845, where Monday evening’s outlook cited the 348,010 and 294,853 published at that time. Oscillator readings are cited as published, with the reopen caveat stated. Every intraday ordering claim rests on the provider’s 30-minute series for Tuesday, 46 bars from the reopen through the 4:30 PM ET bar. No dealer-positioning dataset was read for crude, so no gamma, dealer-positioning or options-flow claim is made. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar captured for this session; catalysts whose time had passed at 6:20 PM ET, when collection began, are recorded as completed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment and carry no calibration. Tuesday’s grade uses Tuesday’s open, high, low and settle as stated in tonight’s review and the dated 09/29 row of the daily record, which agree, the 30-minute series for the order of prints, and the setup card as published on Tuesday’s outlook.
Not captured, and stated nowhere as a figure: a four-hour series, a prior-quarter high or low, a producer-group quota decision, a refinery utilisation figure, a seasonal demand series, a timed Hormuz flow report, and any Venezuela supply development.
Tuesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and Tuesday’s gold outlook is here. Outlooks for the equity index, technology index, gold and crude contracts are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
