At 7:30 AM ET on Monday, one 30-minute bar lifted December S&P 500 futures from 7,448.00 to 7,476.50. It reached the 7,465 to 7,475 short band we set at Friday’s settle, topped it by 1.50 and stopped 20.50 beneath the 7,497 stop. Two hours later the first cash bar ran to 7,525.50. That went through the stop. No fill and no result is asserted.
The rally kept going. December E-mini futures settled at 7,574.25 on Monday, up 172.25 points or 2.33 percent, after a 236.75 point range from 7,363.75 to 7,600.50. The low came in the 6:00 PM ET bar at the Sunday reopen and the high in the 3:00 PM ET bar. Both extremes sat above Friday’s. The settle finished at 88.9 percent of the range. It was the highest settle since 11/04/26.
December S&P 500 futures settled at 7,574.25 on Monday, above the 5-day average at 7,535.25 and the 200-day at 7,441.50, and beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day; it is the eighth straight settle beneath both the 20-day and the 50-day. Tuesday’s setup is a short from 7,645 to 7,655. The whole band sits above the settle, its bottom 70.75 points up and 44.50 above Monday’s 7,600.50 high, and its top sits 6.92 beneath Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. The stop is 7,680. The first two targets, 7,620 and 7,590, sit above the settle; only the extended 7,560 sits beneath it. Per the dataset’s levels, the cash index close of 7,549.94 on the provider’s daily record (a positioning console showed 7,558.85, so the sources differ, and the review uses the provider record) sits 8.06 points beneath its 7,558 modeled gamma-flip level. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, as the calendar lists it.
Monday’s short: band at 7:30 AM ET, stop in the first cash bar
In Monday’s outlook we set a short from 7,465 to 7,475 at Friday’s settle. Its stop sat at 7,497. The targets were 7,443, 7,416 and an extended 7,389. The card covers the whole Monday session, from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen. Monday’s completed bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-09 row, opened at 7,371.00. It ranged from 7,600.50 to 7,363.75 and settled at 7,574.25.
The night started beneath the band. The open sat 94.00 points under the band bottom. The 6:00 PM ET bar made the 7,363.75 low, beneath all three targets. Those prints came before any entry. For a short, a target print ahead of the band does not count. Through the 7:00 AM ET bar the highest print was 7,459.00, in the 6:00 AM ET bar, 6.00 beneath the band.
Then the band traded. The 7:30 AM ET bar opened at 7,448.00, rose to 7,476.50 and closed at 7,468.00. It topped the band by 1.50 and stayed 20.50 beneath the stop. From that bar through the 9:00 AM ET bar the lowest print was 7,444.75. That sat 1.75 above the first target. Every close in that stretch held at or beneath 7,475.
The cash open decided it. The 9:30 AM ET bar opened at 7,465.25 and ran to 7,525.50, through the 7,497 stop by 28.50. Its low of 7,455.75 stayed 12.75 above the first target, and its internal order is not established beyond that. Its 7,523.25 close and the 7,537.75 close of the 10:00 AM ET bar met the acceptance test the card named, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,475. From the 10:00 AM ET bar on, the lowest print was 7,519.25. No target traded after the stop. No fill and no result is asserted.
The thesis line gave way too. The card negated its thesis on a settle above Pivot R2 at 7,544.50. The 10:30 AM ET bar was the first to close above it, and the settle came in 29.75 points above it. The card’s base case was a rebound that stalls beneath Pivot R1 at 7,473.25. Monday’s high ran 127.25 past that pivot. The range left the base-case span, Pivot S1 at 7,326.50 to R1, through its top.
Our session bands missed on the high side. The night session, 6:00 PM to 3:00 AM ET, traded from 7,363.75 to 7,452.50, 2.50 above its 7,340 to 7,450 band. London, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, reached 7,476.50, 31.50 above its 7,350 to 7,445 band. The morning high of 7,564.50 sat 84.50 above 7,330 to 7,480. The afternoon high of 7,600.50 sat 130.50 above 7,330 to 7,470. Even the high-range case, 7,270 to 7,530, was topped by 70.50. We grade the card as written: band first at 7:30 AM ET, then the stop and the acceptance closes in the cash session, with no result claimed.
Up 172.25 to 7,574.25 from a 7,363.75 low at the reopen
December E-mini futures settled at 7,574.25 on Monday, up 172.25 points or 2.33 percent from Friday’s 7,402.00. The range ran 236.75 points, 1.72 times the 14-day average daily range of 137.95. That is 90.00 points wider than Friday’s and the widest since 11/05/26. Two higher settles have now recovered 191.25 of the 337.50 points lost on Thursday.
Both extremes rose. The 7,600.50 high sat 131.50 above Friday’s 7,469.00, and the 7,363.75 low sat 41.50 above Friday’s 7,322.25. The high still sat 138.25 beneath Thursday’s 7,738.75. Over five sessions the contract is down 0.25 from the 7,574.50 settle of 11/02, which the provider publishes as unchanged.
The low came first. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday at 7,371.00, 31.00 beneath Friday’s settle. The 6:00 PM ET bar made the 7,363.75 low and still rose 37.25 to close at 7,408.25. From the reopen to 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 7,363.75 and 7,452.50, with the 11:30 PM ET bar at the top of that window. The 2:30 AM ET bar fell 18.50 to 7,391.25 and closed the window.
London pushed higher. From 3:00 AM ET to the cash open the bars held between 7,391.25 and 7,476.50, with the 7:30 AM ET bar at the top. The 9:00 AM ET bar closed that window at 7,465.25. Then the 9:30 AM ET bar rose 58.00 to 7,523.25. No bar gained more. It was the only bar to move more than 40 points from open to close.
The cash session held its gains. From 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET the bars held between 7,455.75 and 7,600.50. The 10:30 AM ET bar rose 25.25 to 7,563.00 and the 11:00 AM ET bar fell 20.75 to 7,542.50. The 2:30 PM ET bar reached 7,598.00 and closed at 7,586.00. The 3:00 PM ET bar made the 7,600.50 high and closed at 7,597.75. Then the 3:30 PM ET bar fell 25.50 to 7,572.00, the largest decline of any bar. After the cash close the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 7,580.25, 6.00 above the settle.
The basis narrowed again. Monday’s settle less the cash index close of 7,549.94 on the provider’s daily record (a positioning console showed 7,558.85, so the sources differ, and the review uses the provider record) measures 24.31 points, against 25.14 on Friday. Every cash equivalent here uses that figure. The dataset keeps its own 22.32 point offset, 1.99 narrower. Its published futures pairs are 8,122.32 for the 8,100 call-side ceiling, 7,712.32 for the 7,690 modeled volatility threshold, 7,580.32 for the 7,558 modeled gamma-flip level, 7,322.32 for the 7,300 put-side support base and 7,022.32 for the 7,000 gamma concentration.
Resistance starts close. The 7,577.41 price that would cross the 9-day average on Tuesday sits 3.16 above the settle. The 7,580.25 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar (cash 7,555.94), the 7,580.32 flip pair and the 7,582.31 flip conversion sit within 2.06. Then a second band. The 11/03 settle of 7,596.75, the 7,597.75 close of the 3:00 PM ET bar, the 7,598.00 high of the 2:30 PM ET bar and the 9-day average at 7,600.25 come first. Monday’s 7,600.50 high (cash 7,576.19), the 7,604.63 midpoint of the four-week range and the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range (cash 7,589.32) follow, all within 16.88 of that settle.
Pivot R1 at 7,661.92 (cash 7,637.61) opens the next band. The 7,670.33 projection for the 70 percent raw stochastic, the 7,671.27 retracement from the four-week high, the 7,682.39 retracement from the 13-week high and the 20-day at 7,682.50 sit within 20.58 of R1. The 100-day at 7,699.00, the one-range frame top at 7,706.59, the 7,712.32 threshold pair, its 7,714.31 conversion, one standard deviation resistance at 7,716.16, the 11/04 settle of 7,720.50 and the 7,724.31 conversion of the 7,700 key strike come next. The 50-day at 7,730.25, Thursday’s 7,738.75 high and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 (cash 7,725.27) follow.
Higher still sit two deviations at 7,774.94 and three at 7,820.05. The 7,887.00 one-month high, Pivot R3 at 7,898.67, the 7,905.00 52-week and 13-week high (cash 7,880.69) and the 8,122.32 ceiling pair complete the list.
Support starts 2.25 points down, at the 7,572.00 close of the 3:30 PM ET bar (cash 7,547.69). The 7,563.00 close of the 10:30 AM ET bar follows. Then a tight group. The 7,544.86 retracement from the 13-week low (cash 7,520.55), the 7,542.50 close of the 11:00 AM ET bar, the 7,537.98 retracement from the four-week low and the 5-day at 7,535.25 come first. The 7,527.78 published target price, the 7,524.31 conversion of the 7,500 key strike and the 7,523.25 close of the 9:30 AM ET bar follow, the whole group within 21.61. The Pivot Point at 7,512.83 (cash 7,488.52) sits 61.42 beneath the settle.
The session prints come next. The 7,476.50 top of the pre-cash window, the 7,465.25 close of the 9:00 AM ET bar, the 7,455.75 cash-hours low and the 7,452.50 top of the overnight window sit beneath the Pivot Point. Then the 200-day. The one-range frame bottom at 7,441.91, the 200-day at 7,441.50 (cash 7,417.19), one standard deviation support at 7,432.34 and Pivot S1 at 7,425.17 (cash 7,400.86) sit within 16.74.
Lower down sit the 7,408.25 close of the 6:00 PM ET bar, Friday’s 7,402.00 settle, the 7,391.25 close of the overnight window and Thursday’s 7,383.00 settle. Then the session low. Two deviations at 7,373.56, Monday’s 7,371.00 open and the 7,363.75 low (cash 7,339.44) follow, then Thursday’s 7,346.00 low and three deviations at 7,328.45. The put-side base is next. The 7,324.31 conversion of the 7,300 put-side base, its 7,322.32 pair and Friday’s 7,322.25 low (cash 7,297.94), the one-month and 13-week low, sit within 6.20 of three deviations. Deeper still. Pivot S2 at 7,276.08, the 7,224.31 conversion of the 7,200 support, Pivot S3 at 7,188.42, the 7,024.31 conversion of the 7,000 key strike, its 7,022.32 pair and the 6,466.00 52-week low are the deeper references.
Two averages sit beneath the settle. It sits 39.00 points above the 5-day at 7,535.25 and 132.75 above the 200-day at 7,441.50. It is the first settle above the 200-day after two beneath it, on 11/05 and 11/06. Four sit above. The settle sits 26.00 beneath the 9-day at 7,600.25, 108.25 beneath the 20-day at 7,682.50, 156.00 beneath the 50-day at 7,730.25 and 124.75 beneath the 100-day at 7,699.00. It is the eighth consecutive settle beneath both the 20-day and the 50-day; the last settle above either came on 10/28/26.
The stack barely moved. The 5-day held at 7,535.25 as Monday’s settle replaced the 11/02 settle of 7,574.50, and the 200-day rose 2.25 from 7,439.25. The 9-day fell 20.50 from 7,620.75. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 7,762.00, which keeps the 20-day beneath the 50-day. The 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged 7,667.75 and the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window 7,184.00. The 200-day window holds 27 rows with no recorded volume from the contract’s thinly traded early months, so that average rests on thin history. Each average was rounded once to the 0.25 tick from the 259-session settlement series.
Momentum sits mid-range. On the provider’s published readings, taken at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen and so possibly including the reopened session’s live price, relative strength reads 45.69 on the 9-day, 44.92 on the 14-day and 45.25 on the 20-day. The raw stochastic reads 50.68 percent on the 9-day and 14-day and 45.20 percent on the 20-day. The smoothed 14-day %K at 24.84 percent sits 4.57 beneath %D at 29.41 percent.
Direction leads negative, narrowly. The 9-day ADX reads 25.18, with +DI at 19.94 and -DI at 21.67. The 14-day ADX reads 20.44, with +DI at 18.88 and -DI at 22.64. Negative direction leads on both, by 1.73 and 3.76. Historic volatility reads 29.49 percent on the 9-day and 24.90 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening is 64 percent sell, against 88 percent sell a session earlier. Its strength and its direction are both described as average, and the trend composite reads sell. A week ago the snapshot read 56 percent sell, and a month ago 80 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 40 percent sell, the medium-horizon group 100 percent sell and the long-horizon group 33 percent sell.
Monday’s range sat above the averages. The 14-day average true range stands at 132.34 points and the 14-day average daily range at 137.95. The 9-day figures are 154.35 and 169.06, the 20-day figures 118.27 and 125.04. One average true range either side of the settle frames Tuesday between 7,441.91 and 7,706.59. The deviation bands run 7,432.34 to 7,716.16 at one deviation, 7,373.56 to 7,774.94 at two and 7,328.45 to 7,820.05 at three. Built from five settlements, they describe dispersion and say nothing of intraday reach. The 8:30 AM ET inflation data adds event risk that a single-session band does not cover.
Zoom out. Daily ranges over the last ten sessions, from 10/27, ran 73.00, 69.25, 64.25, 154.75, 123.00, 77.75, 256.25, 392.75, 146.75 and 236.75 points. Settlements over the last six sessions read 7,574.50, 7,596.75, 7,720.50, 7,383.00, 7,402.00 and 7,574.25. The provider publishes 7,905.00 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 7,887.00 as the one-month high, 7,322.25 as the one-month and 13-week low and 6,466.00 as the 52-week low. The settle sits 29.39 above the 7,544.86 retracement and 39.38 beneath the 7,613.63 midpoint.
Chips rose 6.85 percent as the volatility index fell to 19.92
News items keep their own times here. None is tied to a price move as its cause. The 30-minute bars place Monday’s low in the 6:00 PM ET bar at the Sunday reopen and the high in the 3:00 PM ET bar, and the bars carry no cause.
Chips led. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,549.94 on the provider’s daily record (a positioning console showed 7,558.85, so the sources differ, and the review uses the provider record), up 173.08 points or 2.35 percent. The Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 3.40 percent, the semiconductor index 6.85 percent and the Dow industrials 2.15 percent. The provider’s commentary attributed the gain to dip buying in semiconductor and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares and to the decline in crude; that is attributed commentary. The series does not establish that any single report caused a particular move.
Other markets moved too. The volatility index closed at 19.92, down 5.72 points or 22.31 percent from 25.64. December crude fell 4.38 percent to 86.85 and December gold rose 0.97 percent to 4,114.5. The dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65, and the ten-year yield index rose one basis point to 4.86 percent. The contract rose as crude fell, and nothing in the data separates the effects.
Rates news came in pieces. At 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. The provider’s commentary quoted a Federal Reserve official as saying inflation is starting to kick up in services. The same commentary put the market-implied chance of a quarter-point increase at the next policy meeting at 83 percent; that is attributed commentary, and no probability was computed for this outlook. Wholesale trade data came out at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, as the calendar lists it. The provider’s commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent.
One chip name lagged. The provider’s commentary said the largest technology shares rallied on Monday and that a large chip designer closed down more than 4 percent, which is attributed commentary. Results come next week. The chip designer’s quarterly results are scheduled for about 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists them.
A diplomatic headline came later. At 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster’s report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy. The 2:30 PM ET bar reached 7,598.00 and the 3:00 PM ET bar made the 7,600.50 high; the report and the advance coincided. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Weekly positioning came from the latest report. For the week to Tuesday, November 3, the provider’s overview lists asset managers at 1,111,721 long, up 666, against 183,137 short, down 4,469. Leveraged funds held 125,269 long, up 23,190, against 497,587 short, down 5,096, as listed on the same overview and not recomputed.
Activity eased. Monday’s December volume was 1,887,643 contracts on the 2026-11-09 row, against 1,973,517 on Friday’s revised 2026-11-06 row, a drop of 85,874 or 4.4 percent. Our Monday outlook carried the preliminary 1,877,813 for Friday. Friday’s open interest now reads 2,003,789 on the revised 2026-11-06 row, 13,546 beneath Thursday’s 2,017,335. Monday’s open interest was not yet reported.
The dealer-positioning dataset used here, the edition timed 5:29 PM ET on Monday, takes Friday’s closes as its reference prices. Its 7,376 index reference sits 0.86 beneath Friday’s 7,376.86 cash close. Its 26,989 Nasdaq-100 reference sits 0.99 beneath Friday’s 26,989.99. Friday’s 7,376.86 plus 173.08 points, a 2.35 percent gain, gives the cash close of 7,549.94 on the provider’s daily record (a positioning console showed 7,558.85, so the sources differ, and the review uses the provider record). Every level below is read against that provider close.
The close sits just beneath the flip level. It sits 8.06 points beneath the 7,558 modeled gamma-flip level (ES 7,582.31 at the measured basis, dataset pair 7,580.32) and 49.94 above the 7,500 key strike (ES 7,524.31). The dataset’s summary, computed from Friday’s closes, still lists 7,500 as resistance, and the close now sits above it. The 7,690 modeled volatility threshold sits 140.06 above the close (ES 7,714.31, pair 7,712.32) and the 8,100 call-side ceiling 550.06 above. The 7,300 put-side base sits 249.94 beneath (ES 7,324.31, pair 7,322.32), and the 7,000 gamma concentration 549.94 beneath. In the dataset’s model, gamma tilt reads 0.683, gamma notional minus 1.202 billion dollars and the gamma index minus 4.28. Its implied moves are 0.70 percent for one day, about 52.85 points on the close, and 1.48 percent for five, about 111.74. Its 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.083. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs; neither is an option strike.
The dataset draws its own map. Its summary lists resistance at 7,500, a dealer-positioning pivot at 7,690 and support at 7,200. Its key strikes are 7,000, 8,000, 7,500 and 7,700, all in cash. These levels were computed from Friday’s closes, and the dataset does not state how they shifted during Monday’s session. At the measured basis the 7,200 support converts to 7,224.31, the 7,700 key strike to 7,724.31 and the 7,000 key strike to 7,024.31. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path here comes from the futures bars.
The console adds detail. The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:23 PM ET, carried Friday’s 7,376.86 as its previous close. Its 7,558.85 price, up 2.47 percent, is a console reading and sits 8.91 above the provider’s 7,549.94 daily-record close; the sources differ, and the review uses the provider record. It shows model call gamma of minus 2.51 billion against put gamma of minus 3.67 billion. Options volume read 951.01 thousand calls against 1.41 million puts, which says nothing about direction. One-month implied volatility reads 18.61 percent against realised volatility of 19.31 percent, 0.70 points beneath it. The implied-volatility rank reads 53.17 percent, the skew rank 8.00 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.42. The dataset’s gamma figures and the console’s come from different models and timestamps, and neither is summed with the other.
The close sits at a transition. In the review’s interpretation, a cash close 8.06 points beneath the 7,558 flip level and 49.94 above the 7,500 key strike places the index at the dataset’s transition zone, with the 7,690 threshold the next reference above and the 7,300 base well beneath. Gamma is a damping lens. It carries no direction of its own.
The trade map for Tuesday
The primary setup for Tuesday, November 10, is a short from 7,645 to 7,655. The contract settled beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages for an eighth session. The composite reads 64 percent sell, and negative direction leads narrowly on both directional systems. Now the geometry. The whole band sits above Monday’s settle, its bottom 70.75 points up and its top 80.75 up. It also sits 44.50 above Monday’s 7,600.50 high. So the short asks for a further rebound first. The band bottom sits 31.37 above the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range, and the band top sits 6.92 beneath Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. The stop at 7,680 sits 25.00 above the band, 18.08 above Pivot R1, 8.73 above the 7,671.27 retracement and 2.39 beneath the 7,682.39 retracement. Targets step down. The first, 7,620, sits 6.37 above the 7,613.63 midpoint and 45.75 above the settle. The second, 7,590, sits 7.69 above the 7,582.31 flip-level conversion, still 15.75 above the settle. Only the extended 7,560 sits beneath the settle, 14.25 down and 15.14 above the 7,544.86 retracement. The evidence against is plain. In the review’s words, two higher settles and a close near the top of the range are the main risk to a short. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold. No measured edge stands behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 7,650 midpoint the risk to the stop is 30 points, 22.7 percent of the 14-day average true range of 132.34. The targets sit 30, 60 and 90 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. From the settle the midpoint sits 75.75 points higher, the rebound the setup needs. The invalidation line, the 7,714.31 threshold conversion, sits 34.31 above the stop.
The session bands are the review’s analyst judgment. Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, and the provider’s overview showed a 7,580.75 open for the new session, 6.50 above the settle, with a 7,582.75 high and a 7,576.00 low. For the night session, 6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, the bias is neutral above the Pivot Point at 7,512.83, with a band of roughly 7,545 to 7,610. That band tops out 35.00 beneath the setup band. Headline risk on diplomacy and on a large chip designer remains the main item in that window. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, as the calendar lists them, just after it.
London, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, carries a neutral bias between the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 and the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range, and runs roughly 7,540 to 7,615. Its top sits 1.37 above that midpoint and 30.00 beneath the band bottom. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, as the calendar lists it, together with real earnings. The news-feed calendar lists forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index, against 0.6 percent previously. For the monthly core index it lists 0.2 percent, against 0.3 percent previously.
The morning band, 9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET, runs roughly 7,500 to 7,665. The setup band sits near its top. In the review’s judgment the 9:30 AM ET cash open is the first cash-session test of the response against the 7,558 flip level. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 10:50 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The afternoon band, 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET, runs roughly 7,520 to 7,650, its top inside the setup band. Three listings follow. A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET and remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 1:30 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET, as the calendar lists them, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET.
Midweek comes next. The Tuesday evening session carries into the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, November 11, when Globex keeps normal hours, as the calendar lists it. The producer price index follows at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, as the calendar lists it.
The scenario ranges, also analyst judgment, run 7,540 to 7,620 for the low-range case, 7,500 to 7,660 for the mid-range case, the most likely, and 7,430 to 7,715 for the high-range case. The low-range case tops out at the first target, 25.00 beneath the band bottom. The mid-range top sits 5.00 above the band and 20.00 beneath the stop. Only the high-range case reaches past the stop, by 35.00, and past the 7,714.31 invalidation line by 0.69.
Three paths, ranked. In the review’s analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 and Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. In the same judgment, a test of the 7,645 to 7,655 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 is weighted above a settle through it. That is our base case. The review weighs it that way because the composite reads 64 percent sell and negative direction leads narrowly on both directional systems. The settle also sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day for an eighth session. Against that, two higher settles, a close at 88.9 percent of the range and a settle back above the 200-day describe a rebound. In the review’s interpretation that favours a test of Pivot R1 that is sold over a bid at the reopen. The second scenario is a settle above the 7,714.31 threshold conversion. It would invalidate the reading and could bring the 7,724.31 conversion of the 7,700 key strike and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 into play. The third runs lower first. A firmer inflation print could send the contract back through the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 toward the 200-day average at 7,441.50 without the rebound the setup needs.
Monday’s rally stopped at 7,600.50; Tuesday’s band starts 44.50 points above that high.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Tuesday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December S&P 500 contract settled at 7,574.25 on Monday, up 172.25 or 2.33 percent from Friday's settle of 7,402.00, after trading between 7,600.50 and 7,363.75, a 236.75 point daily range. The settle finished at 88.9 percent of the range, and the range was 1.72 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 137.95 points. Monday printed a higher high, 131.50 above Friday's 7,469.00, and a higher low, 41.50 above Friday's 7,322.25, and settled higher for a second session. The settle is the highest since 11/04/26, when the contract settled at 7,720.50. Over five sessions the contract is down 0.25 from the 7,574.50 settle of 11/02/26, which the provider publishes as unchanged.
The low came at the Sunday reopen and most of the gain in the cash session. The contract made the 7,363.75 low in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Sunday, rose to 7,465.25 by the close of the 9:00 AM ET bar, and the 9:30 AM ET bar rose 58.00 to 7,523.25, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 3:00 PM ET bar made the 7,600.50 high after the 2:30 PM ET bar reached 7,598.00; at 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy, and the advance and the report coincided.
The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,549.94 on the provider's daily record, up 2.35 percent (a positioning console showed 7,558.85; the sources differ and the provider record is used), the Nasdaq-100 rose 3.40 percent and the semiconductor index 6.85 percent, computed from the index closes. The provider's commentary attributed the gain to dip buying in semiconductor and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares and to the decline in crude, which is attributed commentary. December crude fell 4.38 percent, the dollar index eased 0.64 percent to 101.65, the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent and the volatility index closed at 19.92.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening is "64% SELL" with strength "Average" and direction "Average", against "88% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits above the 5-day and 200-day settlement averages and beneath the 9-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day, back above the 200-day after two settles beneath it. The primary setup is a short from the 7,645 to 7,655 band, beneath Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, stopped at 7,680, with objectives at 7,620, 7,590 and an extended 7,560. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Monday session opened at 7,371.00 at the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 31.00 beneath Friday's settle, and the 30-minute series of the December contract places the low of 7,363.75 in the 6:00 PM ET bar on Sunday and the high of 7,600.50 in the 3:00 PM ET bar on Monday. The 6:00 PM ET bar rose 37.25 to 7,408.25, and between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 7,363.75 and 7,452.50, with the 11:30 PM ET bar making the high of that window; the 2:30 AM ET bar fell 18.50 to 7,391.25, closing that window.
From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 7,391.25 and 7,476.50, with the 7:30 AM ET bar making the high of that window, and the 9:00 AM ET bar closed it at 7,465.25. Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 7,455.75 and 7,600.50. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 58.00 to 7,523.25, the 10:30 AM ET bar rose 25.25 to 7,563.00 and the 11:00 AM ET bar fell 20.75 to 7,542.50. The 2:30 PM ET bar reached 7,598.00 and closed at 7,586.00, the 3:00 PM ET bar made the 7,600.50 high and closed at 7,597.75, and the 3:30 PM ET bar fell 25.50 to 7,572.00, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 7,580.25, 6.00 above the settle.
The provider's overview page, read at 6:19 PM ET, is titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and its open of 7,580.75, high of 7,582.75 and low of 7,576.00 belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, not to Monday's completed session; its previous close field reads 7,574.25. Monday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 7,898.67 minus Pivot S3 at 7,188.42, divided by three, returns 236.75, and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 minus Pivot S2 at 7,276.08, divided by two, returns the same 236.75. Three times the Pivot Point of 7,512.83 less the 7,574.25 settle gives a high plus low sum of 14,964.24, which with the 236.75 range solves to a high of 7,600.495 and a low of 7,363.745, or 7,600.50 and 7,363.75 at the published rounding; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 7,371.00 open, 7,600.50 high, 7,363.75 low and 7,574.25 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Monday printed a higher high and a higher low against Friday and settled 172.25 higher, the second consecutive higher settle after Friday's 19.00 point gain. Settlements over the last six sessions read 7,574.50, 7,596.75, 7,720.50, 7,383.00, 7,402.00 and 7,574.25, so the two higher settles recovered 191.25 of Thursday's 337.50 point decline. Over five sessions the contract is down 0.25 from the 7,574.50 settle of 11/02, which the provider publishes as an unchanged five-day change.
The settle is the highest since the 7,720.50 settle of 11/04/26. The provider publishes 7,905.00 as the 52-week and 13-week high, 7,887.00 as the one-month high, 7,322.25 as the one-month and 13-week low and 6,466.00 as the 52-week low. The settle sits 29.39 above the 7,544.86 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low and 39.38 beneath the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/27, ran 73.00, 69.25, 64.25, 154.75, 123.00, 77.75, 256.25, 392.75, 146.75 and 236.75, so Monday's range expanded after Friday's narrower session and was the widest since 11/05/26. In the 30-minute series only the 9:30 AM ET bar moved more than 40 points from open to close.
The swing sequence shows Thursday's 7,346.00 low and Friday's 7,322.25 low, now the one-month low, followed by Monday's higher low at 7,363.75, while Monday's 7,600.50 high sits 138.25 beneath Thursday's 7,738.75 high. The published grid places the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 7,604.63, the 13-week midpoint at 7,613.63 and the price that would cross the 9-day average at 7,577.41.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/30/25 through Monday; the partial row dated Tuesday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 5-day average stands at 7,535.25, the 9-day at 7,600.25, the 20-day at 7,682.50, the 50-day at 7,730.25, the 100-day at 7,699.00 and the 200-day at 7,441.50. The 200-day window includes 27 zero-volume rows from the contract's deferred period, so the longer averages carry thin early settlements.
The 7,574.25 settle sits 39.00 above the 5-day average and 132.75 above the 200-day, and 26.00 beneath the 9-day, 108.25 beneath the 20-day, 156.00 beneath the 50-day and 124.75 beneath the 100-day. It is the first settle above the 200-day average after settles beneath it on 11/05 and 11/06, and the eighth consecutive settle beneath both the 20-day and the 50-day, the last settle above either coming on 10/28/26. The 5-day average is unchanged at 7,535.25 at the quarter-point rounding as Monday's settle replaced the 11/02 settle of 7,574.50, and the 200-day average rose from 7,439.25.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 7,762.00. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 7,667.75, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 7,184.00.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, and none was computed for this review. The 9-day relative strength reads 45.69, the 14-day relative strength 44.92 and the 20-day relative strength 45.25.
The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastic read 50.68 percent and the 20-day 45.20 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 24.84 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 29.41 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 25.18 with the 9-day +DI at 19.94 and the 9-day -DI at 21.67, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 20.44 with the 14-day +DI at 18.88 and the 14-day -DI at 22.64, so negative direction leads narrowly on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 29.49 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 24.90 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published on Monday evening, on a page titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, is "64% SELL", with signal strength "Average" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "88% SELL" for the prior session, "56% SELL" a week ago and "80% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "40% SELL", the medium group "100% SELL" and the long group "33% SELL", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 132.34 points and the 14-day average daily range at 137.95 points; the 9-day average true range is 154.35 with 169.06 points as the 9-day average daily range, and the 20-day average true range is 118.27 with 125.04 points as the 20-day average daily range. Measured against the 14-day average daily range, Monday's range was 1.72 multiples of it.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 132.34 from the 7,574.25 settle frames Tuesday between 7,441.91 and 7,706.59. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 7,432.34 to 7,716.16 at one deviation, 7,373.56 to 7,774.94 at two and 7,328.45 to 7,820.05 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the inflation data at 8:30 AM ET adds event risk that a single-session band does not cover.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 7,574.25 settle, the first references are the 7,580.32 source pair and the 7,582.31 conversion of the dataset's SPX 7,558 flip level, Monday's 7,600.50 high, the 7,604.63 midpoint of the four-week range and the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range. Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, the 7,670.33 projection for the 70 percent raw stochastic, the 7,671.27 retracement from the four-week high and the 7,682.39 retracement from the 13-week high form the next band. The 7,712.32 source pair and the 7,714.31 conversion of the SPX 7,690 threshold, one standard deviation resistance at 7,716.16, the 7,724.31 conversion of the SPX 7,700 key strike and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 follow.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 7,544.86 retracement from the 13-week low and the 7,537.98 retracement from the four-week low, with the 5-day average at 7,535.25 beneath them. The 7,527.78 published target price, the 7,524.31 conversion of the SPX 7,500 key strike and the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 form the next band. The 200-day average at 7,441.50, one standard deviation support at 7,432.34 and Pivot S1 at 7,425.17 follow, with the 7,324.31 conversion and the 7,322.32 source pair of the SPX 7,300 put side support base and Friday's 7,322.25 low beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar, Rates, and Federal Reserve Policy
The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.65, down 0.64 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.86 percent, up one basis point. At 3:15 PM ET the news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent against 4.932 percent previously, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar. The provider's commentary quoted a Federal Reserve official as saying inflation is starting to kick up in services and put the market-implied chance of a quarter-point increase at the next policy meeting at 83 percent, which is attributed commentary; no probability was computed for this review. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with the news-feed calendar listing forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index.
4.2 Large-Cap Leadership and Earnings
The provider's commentary said the largest technology shares rallied on Monday and that a large chip designer closed down more than 4 percent, which is attributed commentary. The chip designer's quarterly results are scheduled for about 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the call at 5:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists them.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
At 2:38 PM ET the news feed carried a regional broadcaster's report, citing sources, on the terms of US and Iran diplomacy. A tentative diplomatic meeting on Russia and Ukraine is listed for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.4 Sector Breadth and Rotation
The semiconductor index rose 6.85 percent, computed from its closes, and the Nasdaq-100 cash index 3.40 percent, against the S&P 500's 2.35 percent and a 2.15 percent gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The provider's commentary described dip buyers returning to beaten-down chipmakers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares, and a lower crude price, which is attributed commentary.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed at 19.92. December crude fell 4.38 percent and gold rose 0.97 percent. The cash basis, the settle less the S&P 500 cash close of 7,549.94 on the provider's daily record (a positioning console showed 7,558.85; the sources differ), is 24.31 points, against 25.14 on Friday; both legs are completed-session daily records from the provider, read at 6:18 PM ET.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
The latest weekly positioning report, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows asset managers at 1,111,721 long, up 666, against 183,137 short, down 4,469, and leveraged funds at 125,269 long, up 23,190, against 497,587 short, down 5,096, as listed on the provider's overview and not recomputed. Monday's December volume was 1,887,643 contracts against 1,973,517 on Friday, per the settlement record.
5. SPX Options Flow Context
The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section, the edition timed 5:29 PM ET on Monday, uses Friday's closes as its reference prices, not Monday's: SPX 7,376 sits 0.86 beneath Friday's 7,376.86 cash close and NDX 26,989 sits 0.99 beneath Friday's 26,989.99. Friday's 7,376.86 plus 173.08 points, a 2.35 percent gain, gives the provider's 7,549.94 Monday close, which differs from the 7,558.85 console reading, and every level below is read against the provider close.
On the index the primary call side ceiling sits at SPX 8,100, the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,690, the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,558, the primary put side support base at SPX 7,300 and the largest gamma concentration at SPX 7,000. The close sits 550.06 points beneath the ceiling, 140.06 beneath the threshold and 8.06 beneath the flip level, and 249.94 above the put side base and 549.94 above the largest concentration. Gamma tilt reads 0.683, gamma notional minus 1.202 billion dollars and the dataset's gamma index minus 4.28, with an implied one-day move of 0.70 percent, an implied five-day move of 1.48 percent and a 25-delta risk reversal of minus 0.083. The dataset's summary lists resistance at 7,500, its dealer-positioning pivot at 7,690 and support at 7,200, and its key strikes are SPX 7,000, 8,000, 7,500 and 7,700. These levels were computed from Friday's closes, and the dataset does not state how they shifted during Monday's session.
The dataset publishes its own December futures pair for each level, carrying the source's 22.32 point offset and not the measured 24.31 point basis: the ceiling at 8,122.32, the modeled volatility threshold at 7,712.32, the modeled gamma-flip level at 7,580.32, the put side support base at 7,322.32 and the largest concentration at 7,022.32. These are quoted as the source's pairs. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. At the measured basis the SPX 7,000 key strike converts to 7,024.31, the SPX 7,200 support to 7,224.31, the SPX 7,300 base to 7,324.31, the SPX 7,500 key strike to 7,524.31, the SPX 7,558 flip level to 7,582.31, the SPX 7,690 threshold to 7,714.31 and the SPX 7,700 key strike to 7,724.31.
The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:23 PM ET, carried Friday's 7,376.86 as its previous close and a console price of 7,558.85, up 2.47 percent, which is a console reading rather than Monday's cash close. It shows call gamma of minus 2.51 billion against put gamma of minus 3.67 billion, call volume of 951.01 thousand against put volume of 1.41 million, which says nothing about direction, one-month implied volatility of 18.61 percent against realised volatility of 19.31 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 53.17 percent, a skew rank of 8.00 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.42.
In this review's interpretation a cash close 8.06 points beneath the SPX 7,558 flip level and 49.94 above the SPX 7,500 key strike places the index at the dataset's transition zone, with the SPX 7,690 threshold the next dataset reference above and the SPX 7,300 base well beneath. The primary setup sells a rebound toward Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, beneath the 7,714.31 conversion of the SPX 7,690 threshold. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path in section 2.1 comes from the 30-minute futures series.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Monday to 3:00 AM ET Tuesday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Monday with the overview showing a 7,580.75 open, 6.50 above the settle. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 are scheduled, as the calendar lists them, just after this window, and headline risk on diplomacy and on a large chip designer remains the main headline item. Bias neutral above the Pivot Point at 7,512.83, expected band roughly 7,545 to 7,610.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Tuesday)
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 are scheduled as the calendar lists it. Bias neutral between the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 and the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range, expected band roughly 7,540 to 7,615.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Tuesday, RTH Open)
The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and in the review's judgment the cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first cash-session test of the response against the SPX 7,558 flip level. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official at 10:50 AM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Expected band roughly 7,500 to 7,665, with the 7,645 to 7,655 setup band near the top.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Tuesday)
A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. Expected band roughly 7,520 to 7,650.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Tuesday)
The Tuesday evening session carries into the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, when Globex keeps normal hours, as the calendar's exchange notice lists it, and into the producer price index scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Tuesday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 7,540 to 7,620
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 7,500 to 7,660
High-range scenario: 7,430 to 7,715
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 and Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, with a test of the 7,645 to 7,655 band that stalls beneath Pivot R1 at 7,661.92 weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "64% SELL", negative direction leads narrowly on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day for an eighth session, while two higher settles, a close at 88.9 percent of the range and a settle back above the 200-day describe a rebound, which in this review's interpretation favours selling a test of Pivot R1 over buying the reopen.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above the 7,714.31 conversion of the SPX 7,690 threshold, which would bring the 7,724.31 conversion of the SPX 7,700 key strike and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 into play. On the other side, a firmer inflation print could send the contract back through the Pivot Point at 7,512.83 toward the 200-day average at 7,441.50 without the rebound the setup needs.
7. Tuesday Economic Calendar
Monday's releases are complete. Wholesale trade data was released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the provider's commentary put September wholesale trade sales up 2.8 percent against an expected 1.1 percent. The news feed reported a three-year note auction yield of 4.627 percent at 3:15 PM ET, a feed item unconfirmed against the calendar.
Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it. The consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, together with real earnings. The news-feed calendar lists forecasts of 0.3 percent for the monthly headline index, against 0.6 percent previously, and 0.2 percent for the monthly core index, against 0.3 percent previously. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official are scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET. A ten-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET and remarks by Federal Reserve officials at 10:50 AM ET and 1:30 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later in the week, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday with Globex on normal hours and the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the contract on Tuesday is the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the 9:30 AM ET cash open against the SPX 7,558 flip level and the SPX 7,500 key strike.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Rationale: The contract settled beneath the 20-day and 50-day averages for an eighth session, the composite reads "64% SELL" and negative direction leads narrowly on both directional systems, while the rebound has carried the contract back above the 200-day average toward Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. A rebound into the 7,645 to 7,655 band, above the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range and beneath Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, offers a short with a defined risk point beneath the 7,682.39 retracement and the 7,714.31 threshold conversion. Two higher settles and a close near the top of the range are the main risk to a short, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 7,645 to 7,655
Stop Loss: 7,680 (above Pivot R1 at 7,661.92 and the 7,671.27 retracement, beneath the 7,682.39 retracement)
Target 1 (T1): 7,620 (above the 7,613.63 midpoint of the 13-week range)
Target 2 (T2): 7,590 (above the 7,582.31 conversion of the SPX 7,558 flip level)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 7,560 (beneath the 7,574.25 settle, above the 7,544.86 retracement)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle above the 7,714.31 conversion of the SPX 7,690 threshold negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,655; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A softer inflation print, or a further report of progress in diplomacy, would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 7,680 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and the 7,682.39 retracement becomes the reference, 2.39 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 132.34.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini S&P 500 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Monday’s close on November 9, 2026 for the Tuesday, November 10, 2026 session. Monday’s completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 7,898.67 less Pivot S3 at 7,188.42, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 7,749.58 less Pivot S2 at 7,276.08, divided by two, both return 236.75, and three times the 7,512.83 Pivot Point less the settle gives a high-plus-low sum of 14,964.24, which the pair of 7,600.50 and 7,363.75 reproduces at the published rounding. The provider’s settlement row and the chart’s completed Monday daily bar carry the same 7,371.00 open, 7,600.50 high, 7,363.75 low and 7,574.25 settle. The provider’s overview, read after the 6:00 PM ET reopen, already shows the Tuesday session, so its open, high and low are not used as Monday’s range. Those figures, the 30-minute bars of the December contract from the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen and the review’s own statements are the only evidence used to grade Monday’s card, which was set at Friday’s settle and covers the whole session. Times of day come from the bars and are Eastern time. Friday’s volume now reads 1,973,517 contracts on the revised 2026-11-06 row, which replaces the preliminary 1,877,813 carried in Monday’s outlook, and that row’s open interest reads 2,003,789; that post was not changed. Monday’s open interest was not yet reported.
The moving averages were computed from the provider’s 259-session daily settlement series through Monday and rounded once to the 0.25 tick. The oscillators, directional readings, historic volatility and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:19 PM ET on Monday after the Globex reopen. The S&P 500 cash close differs between sources: the provider’s daily record shows 7,549.94 and the positioning console showed 7,558.85; the review uses the provider record, and so does every cash equivalent here, through the 24.31 point basis measured on Monday, settlement against that close. The dealer-positioning dataset uses Friday’s closes as its reference prices and a fixed 22.32 point translation for its futures column. The dataset’s statements about the order of intraday moves are not used. The dataset’s gamma figures and the console’s call and put gamma are separate model measures from different timestamps; they are shown side by side, each with its source, and never combined. The semiconductor index change is computed from its daily closes, 10,033.93 against 9,390.25, as 6.85 percent. Company and institution items are described generically. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed, and every catalyst whose release time had passed at the time of writing is recorded as completed.
Monday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the Nasdaq-100 contract’s Monday outlook set the levels for the index whose cash close rose 3.40 percent on Monday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
Wednesday’s follow-up outlook for S&P 500, written after Tuesday’s close, is here.
