Nasdaq Futures Settle at 28,534.00: Short 28,740 to 28,780

At the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen the December Nasdaq-100 contract opened at 29,180.00, 300.00 points beneath the short band we published for Friday. That first print was the session high. The band never traded. Within the first half hour the contract had already traded through the card's extended third target, and the low came in the 30-minute bar that opened at 2:30 PM ET on Friday.

The contract settled at 28,534.00, down 1,028.00 points, or 3.48 percent, at 31.8 percent of a 947.25 point range. It was the largest one-day decline since 06/05/26. The Nasdaq-100 cash index fell 3.46 percent to 28,384.85 and the semiconductor index 7.20 percent, against 1.82 percent for the S&P 500 cash index. Monday's map sits above the settle.

Friday’s card: the band stayed 300.00 points out of reach and the stop never traded

In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 29,480 to 29,520, stop 29,630. Its targets sat at 29,370, 29,240 and an extended 29,110. Friday's bar, from the review and the provider's 2026-10-30 settlement row, opened at 29,180.00 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a low of 28,232.75 and settled at 28,534.00. The open was also the high. So the band was never reached. Its bottom sat 300.00 points above the session's highest print.

The stop sat 450.00 points above the high. The first two targets never traded either. Their prices sat 190.00 and 60.00 points above the high. The extended third did trade, in the very first 30-minute bar: the bar that opened at 6:00 PM ET on Thursday reached 29,090.25, beneath 29,110. A short from the band needed the band to trade first, so no fill and no result are asserted. The low went 877.25 points beneath that third target. The settle finished 576.00 beneath it.

The card's other tests were never close. Its invalidation needed a settle above the published target price at 29,610.22. The settle finished 1,076.22 points beneath that line. Its acceptance test needed two consecutive 30-minute closes above 29,520. The 30-minute series rules that out. The highest close of the session, 29,110.25 in the bar that opened at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, sat 409.75 points beneath the line.

Its macro override named a cash-session reversal of the after-hours declines in an online retailer and a processor maker, described in market commentary, or a labour-cost reading taken as easing pressure on rates. Its reference, the 29,673.49 flip-level equivalent, did not trade. The high stopped 493.49 points beneath it. The employment cost index came at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it; per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, it rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast. The provider's commentary tied Friday's decline to the two companies' results and to a press report on an artificial-intelligence developer's credit rating. That is attributed commentary, and this article ties no price move to it.

This time the 30-minute series lets each session band be scored over its own window. None held its low. All three scenario cases held the 29,180.00 high. The most likely case of 28,900 to 29,620 missed the low by 667.25 points. The high-range case of 28,500 to 29,870 came closest, 267.25 short at the bottom, and the low-range case of 29,050 to 29,500 missed by 817.25. The night band of 28,980 to 29,500, scored from 6:00 PM ET to 3:00 AM ET, held the night's 29,180.00 high but missed its 28,821.50 low by 158.50. London's 28,950 to 29,520, from 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, missed its 28,762.75 low by 187.25.

The two cash-hours bands missed outright. From 9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET the contract traded between 28,610.75 and 28,860.50. The morning band of 28,900 to 29,620 never traded; its bottom sat 39.50 above that window's high. From 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET the range ran 28,232.75 to 28,670.25, and the afternoon band of 28,800 to 29,650 sat 129.75 above that high.

The most probable path, an analyst judgment, kept the contract between Pivot S2 at 28,805.83 and the published target price at 29,610.22. It weighted a failed rebound toward the Pivot Point at 29,489.08. No rebound came near that Pivot Point. The open, also the session high, sat 309.08 points beneath it. The range did not hold. The low went 573.08 beneath S2, and the settle finished 271.83 beneath it. The downside alternative named a fall through two standard deviations support at 29,088.83 at the cash open, bringing the 28,987.00 one-month low and Pivot S2 into play. All three gave way before the cash open: 29,088.83 in the 6:30 PM ET Thursday bar, 28,987.00 in the 8:30 PM ET bar and S2 in the 7:30 AM ET Friday bar. The upside alternative never came close.

A 149.15 point basis, a band above the settle and five averages overhead

The basis narrowed to 149.15 points, the 28,534.00 settle less the 28,384.85 cash close, from 159.49 on Thursday. The review converts six positioning levels at it. The NDX 28,000 put side support base becomes 28,149.15 and the NDX 28,785 combination level 28,934.15. The modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 29,327 becomes 29,476.15, and the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 29,550 becomes 29,699.15. The NDX 29,675 strike, home of the largest gamma concentration and the call side ceiling, becomes 29,824.15. The NDX 29,000 key level becomes 29,149.15. The conversions are the review's own. Only the first sits beneath the settle.

Resistance starts 114.92 points up, at the Pivot Point at 28,648.92. The 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 28,767.40 follows; it sits inside Monday's short band. Then come the 28,934.15 combination equivalent, the 30 percent projection at 29,034.72, Pivot R1 at 29,065.08 and one standard deviation resistance at 29,095.71. Thursday's 29,111.00 low is next. Three levels sit within 30.85 points: the 29,149.15 key-level equivalent, the one-ATR line at 29,152.58 and Friday's 29,180.00 open and high.

Higher up sit the 14-day %K stall level at 29,267.91 and two standard deviations resistance at 29,328.37. Then a tight knot. The 9-day crossing price at 29,448.94, the 5-day average at 29,465.00, the 9-day average at 29,474.00 and the 29,476.15 flip equivalent sit within 27.21 points. Three standard deviations resistance at 29,506.90, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 29,525.34, Thursday's 29,562.00 settle and Pivot R2 at 29,596.17 follow. The 29,699.15 threshold equivalent, Thursday's 29,794.25 high and the 29,824.15 concentration equivalent come next. The 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 29,924.63, the 100-day average at 29,935.75 and Pivot R3 at 30,012.33 close the ladder. Beyond it sit the 50-day at 30,065.75, the 20-day at 30,134.00 and this week's 30,178.00 high. The 31,616.50 52-week high of 10/06 caps the list, 3,082.50 points up.

Support starts 45.12 points down, at the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 28,488.88. The 200-day average at 28,453.00 sits 35.88 beneath it. Friday's 28,232.75 low, now the one-month and 13-week low, follows, then the published target price at 28,196.83. The 28,149.15 put-base equivalent and Pivot S1 at 28,117.83 sit 31.32 apart. Beneath them come one standard deviation support at 27,972.29, the one-ATR line at 27,915.42 and the 3-10 day crossover stall level at 27,902.71. Two standard deviations support at 27,739.63, Pivot S2 at 27,701.67, three standard deviations support at 27,561.10 and the 50 percent retracement of the 52-week range at 27,522.75 are the extended references. Pivot S3 sits at 27,170.58.

Five averages sit overhead. The settle sits 931.00 points beneath the 5-day at 29,465.00, 940.00 beneath the 9-day at 29,474.00, 1,401.75 beneath the 100-day at 29,935.75, 1,531.75 beneath the 50-day at 30,065.75 and 1,600.00 beneath the 20-day at 30,134.00. Only the 200-day, at 28,453.00, sits beneath it, by 81.00. The review computed the averages from 260 completed daily settlements and rounded each once to the 0.25 tick. The 5-day fell 116.75 from Thursday's 29,581.75 as the 10/23 settle of 29,117.75 left the window. The 20-day fell 126.25 from 30,260.25 as the 10/02 settle of 31,061.75 dropped out. Older settlements sit lower. The 30 older ones in the 50-day window averaged 30,020.41, the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 29,805.92 and the 100 older ones in the 200-day window 26,970.28. Monday's 9-day crossing price is 29,448.94, 914.94 points above the settle.

Momentum sits low on its scale. Relative strength reads 29.99 on the 9-day, 34.26 on the 14-day and 37.91 on the 20-day. The raw stochastics read 15.49 percent on the 9-day and 11.27 percent on the 14-day. The 14-day %K at 26.45 percent sits 4.09 points beneath %D at 30.54 percent. Sellers lead both windows. On the 9-day, negative direction at 38.27 tops positive at 14.01 by 24.26, with the ADX at 35.35; on the 14-day, 34.68 tops 15.00 by 19.68, with the ADX at 25.91. Historic volatility reads 26.50 percent and 24.72 percent. These readings are as published, read at 6:24 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed for the weekend.

A composite multi-indicator read published for Monday sits at 56 percent sell, with strength described as strong and direction as strengthening, against 16 percent sell in the prior session's snapshot. A week ago it also read 56 percent sell. A month ago, 80 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 60 percent sell, the medium 50 percent sell and the long 33 percent sell.

Friday's bar opened at its high. The settle finished 646.00 points beneath the 29,180.00 open and 301.25 above the low. The high sat 614.25 points beneath Thursday's and the low 878.25 beneath Thursday's. The 947.25 point range was 1.49 times the 14-day average daily range of 634.88. The 14-day average true range stands at 618.58 points; the 9-day figures are 674.98 and 608.00 and the 20-day figures 585.40 and 570.97. The week opened at 29,268.00 and closed at 28,534.00, between 30,178.00 and 28,232.75. Against the prior week's 30,113.00 high and 28,987.00 low, that is a higher high and a lower low.

One average true range either side of the settle spans 27,915.42 to 29,152.58. The deviation bands, built from five settlements and centred on the settle, run 27,972.29 to 29,095.71, 27,739.63 to 29,328.37 and 27,561.10 to 29,506.90. They describe settlement dispersion only. Ten sessions of daily ranges read 757.50, 511.75, 385.50, 960.25, 339.00, 548.00, 593.25, 503.75, 683.25 and 947.25 points. The settlement changes over those sessions net to minus 857.50. Over five sessions the contract is down 583.75 points from the 29,117.75 settle of 10/23. The four-hour bars closed at 28,865.50, 28,979.75, 28,889.75, 28,842.00, 28,394.50 and 28,543.00. The one that opened at 10:00 AM ET fell furthest, from 28,841.75 to 28,394.50.

A 3.46 percent cash decline, a 7.20 percent chip slide and results after Thursday’s close

Technology led the decline. The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 28,384.85, down 1,017.66 points or 3.46 percent, after trading between 28,713.45 and 28,093.25. The S&P 500 cash index fell 1.82 percent and the Dow industrials 1.09 percent, so technology fell 1.64 percentage points more than the broad index. The semiconductor index fell 7.20 percent to 10,688.80. The provider's commentary noted that 12 of the 30 Dow components closed higher. In the review's reading, the rotation away from technology that the feeds described on Thursday continued, now with semiconductors leading the decline.

Results came first. An online retailer and a processor maker reported after the close on Thursday, October 29, as the calendar lists them. The news feed headlined both as disappointing. The news feed carried at 4:07 PM ET on Friday an item, unconfirmed, that the processor maker's shares fell 29 percent, their worst day in at least four decades. The provider's commentary tied Friday's decline to those results and to a press report on an artificial-intelligence developer's credit rating. These are reports carried by the feeds and attributed commentary.

Other items ran through the session. At 12:46 PM ET the news feed carried a press report that an artificial-intelligence developer may not secure an investment-grade rating after its listing. A regulator's statement followed. At 1:49 PM ET the feed carried a statement from the SEC's enforcement director that the agency is examining artificial-intelligence disclosures. At 3:25 PM ET it carried an item that large technology companies hold 3 trillion dollars in spending commitments for artificial-intelligence infrastructure. These are reports carried by the feeds. This article ties no price move to any of them.

Yields eased. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.93 percent, against 4.98 percent on Thursday. The employment cost index was released at 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it, and per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed it rose 0.8 percent, in line with the forecast. In the review's interpretation, lower yields that did not support technology mark the decline as earnings-driven rather than rate-driven. No real-yield series was captured, so no real-yield level is asserted.

The news feed carried reports of tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and of the President's remark at 4:01 PM ET that “there are talks” with Iran. December WTI crude rose 2.08 percent to 104.12. The provider's commentary cited higher oil prices and a 6.3 billion dollar theft at a cryptocurrency exchange among the day's pressures. These are reports carried by the feeds and attributed commentary. December gold fell 3.29 percent. The dollar index's daily record eased to 101.88 from 102.04. The volatility index closed at 19.42 against 17.20, after a session high of 23.93.

The cash close sits beneath every positioning line but one. The dealer-positioning dataset's reference prices are Thursday's closes. NDX 29,402 corresponds to Thursday's 29,402.51 cash close, and QQQ 715 to the fund console's previous close of 715.34. Against Friday's 28,384.85 close, the index sits 942.15 points beneath the 29,327 modeled gamma-flip level. It sits 1,165.15 beneath the 29,550 modeled volatility threshold and 1,290.15 beneath 29,675. That strike holds the largest gamma concentration and the call side ceiling. The 28,000 put side support base sits 384.85 points beneath the close. The index model's gamma tilt reads 0.981 and its gamma notional plus 949.405 thousand dollars, both model outputs. That is close to flat. The dataset lists 29,675, 30,000, 29,000 and 29,200 as key index strikes. Its combination levels are 28,785, 28,991, 29,197 and 27,962.

On the QQQ proxy the call side ceiling sits at 723, the modeled volatility threshold and the largest gamma concentration at 720, the modeled gamma-flip level at 719 and the put side support base at 700. Those are proxy levels. The fund's gamma tilt reads 0.620 and its gamma notional minus 721.507 million dollars, proxy model outputs. The console, read at 6:19 PM ET, carried Thursday's 715.34 as its last close and a current price of 690.59, down 3.46 percent and 9.41 beneath the 700 put side base. On the console, call gamma reads minus 1.64 billion against put gamma of minus 2.64 billion. One-month implied volatility reads 20.90 percent against realised volatility of 19.21 percent, 1.69 points apart. The implied-volatility rank reads 41.14 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.38.

In the review's interpretation, drawn from the index model and the QQQ fund proxy, both model outputs, a close more than 900 points beneath the flip level, with fund gamma negative and the fund beneath its put side base, describes an environment in which dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them. Gamma stays a damping lens here. It carries no direction. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes, and no directional read is drawn from options volume or modeled gamma. Monday's band sits beneath the 29,476.15 flip equivalent and above the 28,149.15 put-base equivalent.

Activity jumped. Volume reached 1,023,028 contracts on the 2026-10-30 row, against Thursday's 806,178 on the 2026-10-29 row, a figure revised from the 794,700 carried in Friday's outlook. Open interest reads 268,077 on that 2026-10-29 row, which Friday's outlook listed as not yet reported. That is 435 above the 267,642 on the 2026-10-28 row. Friday's figure is not yet reported. The weekly positioning report released after Friday's close covers the week of October 27. Its Nasdaq-100 table was not captured, so no figure from it is carried.

The trade map for Monday

The primary setup is a short from 28,740 to 28,780. The composite reads 56 percent sell, with direction described as strengthening. Negative direction leads on both directional systems. Friday printed the largest decline since 06/05/26, and the settle sits beneath every average except the 200-day. The whole band sits above the settle. Its bottom sits 206.00 points up and its top 246.00. It holds the 20 percent raw stochastic projection at 28,767.40, 27.40 above its bottom and 12.60 beneath its top. The Pivot Point at 28,648.92 sits 91.08 beneath it.

Then the stop. At 28,900 it sits 120 points above the band top and 34.15 beneath the 28,934.15 combination-level equivalent. The first target, 28,620, also sits above the settle, 86.00 points up and 28.92 beneath the Pivot Point. The second, 28,480, sits 8.88 beneath the 61.8 percent retracement at 28,488.88 and 27.00 above the 200-day average. Then the extended third. At 28,340 it sits 107.25 above Friday's 28,232.75 low and 194.00 beneath the settle. The setup needs a rebound into the band. The 9-day relative strength reading of 29.99 leaves room for a sharp one, so the review calls the setup an analyst judgment that rebounds are sold, with no measured edge behind it.

Now the arithmetic. From the 28,760 midpoint the risk to the stop is 140 points, 22.6 percent of the 14-day average true range of 618.58. The targets sit 140, 280 and 420 points beneath the midpoint. Exact multiples. The first target sits 120 points beneath the band bottom and 86.00 above the settle. The second sits 54.00 beneath the settle. The third sits 194.00 beneath it.

The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 28,250 to 28,800 and the most likely 28,100 to 28,950. The high-range case runs 27,740 to 29,330, within 0.37 and 1.63 points of the two-deviation band. Then the sessions. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, and the review expects roughly 28,250 to 28,800 through the night, with a lower bias beneath the Pivot Point at 28,648.92. Gap references sit at and above the settle at 28,534.00, 28,648.92 and 28,767.40, and beneath it at 28,488.88, 28,232.75 and 28,149.15. London follows from 3:00 AM ET at 28,200 to 28,850, bias neutral to lower beneath the Pivot Point. The morning band runs 28,150 to 28,900. The setup band sits in its upper half, its top 120.00 points beneath the band's top, which equals the stop. The afternoon band runs 28,100 to 28,950, its top 50.00 above the stop.

Monday's calendar starts on Sunday. US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 AM ET on Sunday, November 1, as the calendar lists it, so Monday's clock times are standard time. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET that evening. Two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settle from the reopen. Manufacturing surveys are listed for Monday morning, and a US manufacturing survey for Monday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash session opens at 9:30 AM ET. Construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET and the senior loan officer survey for 2:00 PM ET, as the calendar lists them. The calendar lists results from a consumer-electronics maker and a data-analytics software group for Monday, November 2, for the date only; the time is not confirmed. Tuesday's midterm elections are listed per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed.

One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between two standard deviations support at 27,739.63 and Pivot R1 at 29,065.08. Within it, a rebound toward the Pivot Point at 28,648.92 that fails beneath the 28,934.15 equivalent is weighted above a sustained recovery. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative is a settle above Pivot R1, which would open Friday's 29,180.00 high and the 29,476.15 flip-level equivalent. On the other side, a reopen beneath Friday's 28,232.75 low would bring the 28,149.15 put-base equivalent and Pivot S1 at 28,117.83 into play without the rebound the setup needs. In the review's judgment the first-order event on Monday is the cash open at 9:30 AM ET after Friday's semiconductor decline.

Monday's band sits between Friday's settle, 206.00 points beneath its bottom, and Pivot R1, 285.08 points above its top.

The complete data picture

Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.

Sources and methodology

This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 30, 2026 for the Monday, November 2, 2026 session. Friday's open, high, low and settle come from the provider's daily settlement record for the December contract, the 2026-10-30 row, and match the chart's completed daily bar. Friday's session opened at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, and with Globex closed for the weekend the overview's open, high and low belong to that completed session. Pivot R3 at 30,012.33 less Pivot S3 at 27,170.58, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 29,596.17 less Pivot S2 at 27,701.67, divided by two, both return 947.25, and three times the 28,648.92 Pivot Point less the settle gives 57,412.76, against 57,412.75 for the pair of 29,180.00 and 28,232.75, a difference within the published rounding. Every time of day given for Friday's prices comes from the 30-minute series for Friday's session, which starts at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, read as Eastern clock times; session windows are scored over the bars that open inside each window. Monday's clock times are standard time after daylight saving time ends on Sunday, as the calendar lists it.

The moving averages are the review's, computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, 260 completed sessions, and rounded once to the 0.25 tick. The oscillators and the average true and daily ranges are cited as published, read at 6:24 PM ET on Friday with Globex closed. Volume and open interest come from the provider's daily record: the 2026-10-30 row reads 1,023,028 contracts with open interest not yet reported, and the 2026-10-29 row now reads 806,178 contracts and open interest of 268,077, where Friday's outlook carried 794,700 contracts and open interest not yet reported; the 2026-10-28 row reads open interest of 267,642. The weekly positioning report covering the week of October 27 was released after Friday's close, and its Nasdaq-100 table was not captured. The dealer-positioning dataset carries Thursday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is the review's conversion at the 149.15 point measured basis, the December settlement less the cash close, against 159.49 on Thursday. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels. The reading that dealer hedging is more likely to extend moves than to damp them is the review's interpretation from the index model and that proxy, both model outputs, and gamma is read as a damping lens with no direction; the fund console was read at 6:19 PM ET. Company results are dated by the calendar and described per the news feed, and the provider's attribution of Friday's decline is its commentary. The volume and open-interest changes, the session-window highs and lows and the distances in this article are computed. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar.

Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Friday outlook covers the index that fell 1.82 percent in cash on Friday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.

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