By 9:48 PM ET on Sunday the December Nasdaq-100 contract had already been to 31,289.25. That overnight high cleared Pivot R1 at 31,265.83 by 23.42 points. The contract then traded near 31,186.25, up 77.50 points from Friday's settle, with the overnight low at 31,124.50, still 15.08 above the Pivot Point. Monday's long zone sits far below. Its 31,010 top is 176.25 points beneath that quote.
Friday was quiet by Nasdaq standards. December E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 31,108.75, up 139.25 points or 0.45 percent, inside Thursday's range: the 31,266.50 high sat 199.50 points beneath Thursday's 31,466.00 and the 30,953.00 low 161.00 above Thursday's 30,792.00. The 313.50 point range was the narrowest since the 307.25 point range of 10/06, and the settle finished at 49.7 percent of it. The cash index closed at 30,883.15, up 0.51 percent. Chips did not join in.
December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 31,108.75, 0.67 points beneath the 31,109.42 Pivot Point, above the 9-day through 200-day settlement averages and 147.55 points beneath the 5-day at 31,256.30. The primary setup is a long from 30,950 to 31,010 around Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 and the 30,988.67 published target price, beneath 31,015.60, the December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold, stop 30,780 beneath Pivot S2 at 30,795.92, targets 31,180, 31,380 and an extended 31,580. A fill in the band means the contract has slipped back under the threshold equivalent, so the thesis is a reclaim of it. Sunday's reopen traded near 31,186.25 at 9:48 PM ET, 176.25 points above the band top, so the setup needs a pullback to engage. Monday is Columbus Day: the cash Treasury market is closed while equities and futures trade normal hours.
Friday's 31,266.50 high reached the short band; the 31,282.75 acceptance line never traded
In Friday’s outlook we set a short from 31,180 to 31,240, stop 31,380, with targets at 31,040, 30,870 and an extended 30,700. Friday's bar, from the review, opened at 31,020.50 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, marked a high of 31,266.50 and a low of 30,953.00, and settled at 31,108.75. The open sat 159.50 points beneath the band. Later the high cleared the band's 31,240 top by 26.50 points. The stop held, with the high 113.50 points beneath 31,380.
Order decides the first target, and the record does not hold it. The 30,953.00 low went 87.00 points beneath 31,040, but the 31,020.50 open was already 19.50 beneath that level before price reached the band. No complete intraday series was preserved for Friday, so the record cannot say whether price returned to 31,040 after it traded in the band. The 30,870 and 30,700 targets never printed; the low held 83.00 and 253.00 points above them. No fill and no result is asserted.
The card's lines held cleanly. Its invalidation was a settle above Pivot R1 at 31,359.67, and the settle finished 250.92 points beneath it. Its acceptance line sat at 31,282.75, and the high stopped 16.25 points under it, so no 30-minute close above that line was possible. The settle landed 71.25 points beneath the band and 68.75 above the first target.
Our ranges did better on Friday. The most likely band of 30,650 to 31,300 contained the whole session, with the high 33.50 points beneath its top and the low 303.00 above its bottom. The low-range case of 30,750 to 31,200 held the settle but missed the high by 66.50. The weighted path expected a hold between Pivot S1 at 30,685.67 and Pivot R1 at 31,359.67, and it got one: the low stayed 267.33 points above that pivot and the high 93.17 beneath the other. The rally the card waited for did arrive in the 31,191.00 to 31,243.69 band and ran 22.81 points past its top, and the settle finished 82.25 points beneath its bottom.
Pivot S1 at 30,952.33, the 30,950 to 31,010 band and the 31,015.60 threshold equivalent
The basis narrowed to 225.60 points, the 31,108.75 settle less the 30,883.15 cash close, from 243.69 on Thursday. Every December equivalent of a positioning level in this article uses it: 31,225.60 for the 31,000 gamma concentration, 31,015.60 for the 30,790 modeled volatility threshold, 30,872.60 for the 30,647 modeled gamma-flip level and 30,425.60 for the 30,200 put-side base. These are our conversions; the note publishes no Nasdaq futures pair.
Resistance starts at the pivot. The Pivot Point at 31,109.42 sits 0.67 points above the settle. Then the 31,225.60 concentration equivalent, the 5-day average at 31,256.30, Pivot R1 at 31,265.83 and Friday's 31,266.50 high, the last three within 10.20 points. Sunday's 31,289.25 overnight high sits 22.75 points above Friday's. One standard deviation resistance at 31,321.24, two at 31,409.26 and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92 come next. Thursday's 31,466.00 high, three standard deviations resistance at 31,476.79, Pivot R3 at 31,579.33 and the 31,616.50 52-week high are the extended references.
Support comes in layers. The 9-day crossing price for Monday at 31,100.31 sits 8.44 points beneath the settle and the 9-day average at 31,046.19 62.56 beneath it. Then the band that anchors the setup: the 31,015.60 threshold equivalent, the published target price at 30,988.67, Friday's 30,953.00 low and Pivot S1 at 30,952.33, a span of 63.27 points. The entry band runs from 30,950, 2.33 under Pivot S1, to 31,010, 5.60 under the threshold equivalent.
Beneath that sit one standard deviation support at 30,896.26, the 30,872.60 flip equivalent, the 18-day crossing at 30,816.25, two standard deviations support at 30,808.24 and Pivot S2 at 30,795.92. The 30,780 stop sits 15.92 points beneath that pivot and 12.00 beneath Thursday's 30,792.00 low. Three standard deviations support at 30,740.71, Pivot S3 at 30,638.83, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24 and the 20-day average at 30,591.46 follow. The 30,425.60 put-side equivalent, the 50 percent retracement at 30,334.75, the 40-day crossing at 30,168.06, the 50-day at 30,109.08 and the 100-day at 30,039.80 lie deeper, with the 29,053.00 one-month low and the 200-day at 28,202.03 at the bottom.
The 5-day is the one average overhead, 147.55 points above the settle. The settle sits 62.56 above the 9-day, 517.29 above the 20-day, 999.68 above the 50-day, 1,068.95 above the 100-day and 2,906.72 above the 200-day. The 5-day rose 9.40 points from 31,246.90 as the 10/02 settle of 31,061.75 left the window, and the 20-day rose 71.23 from 30,520.24. The older averages sit far lower. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 29,787.48, and the 50 older ones in the 100-day window 29,970.52.
Momentum cooled from high readings. Relative strength reads 59.49 on the 9-day and 59.87 on the 14-day. The raw stochastic reads 59.20 percent on the 9-day and 59.69 percent on the 14-day, and the smoothed 14-day %K at 70.34 percent sits beneath %D at 81.99 percent. Direction still favours buyers. On the 9-day, positive direction at 22.24 leads negative at 18.63 with the ADX at 25.72; on the 14-day, 23.28 leads 18.46 with the ADX at 18.83. Historic volatility reads 10.32 percent and 11.03 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read held at 80 percent buy, strength weak and direction average. A week ago it read 88 percent buy and a month ago 16 percent sell. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium 50 percent buy and the long 100 percent buy, and the trend indicator reads buy.
Ranges came in. The 14-day average true range stands at 454.82 points and the 14-day average daily range at 440.54; the 9-day figures are 449.38 and 442.00 and the 20-day figures 466.85 and 464.95. Friday's range was 0.71 times the 14-day average daily range. One average true range either side of the settle spans 30,653.93 to 31,563.57. The deviation bands run 30,896.26 to 31,321.24, 30,808.24 to 31,409.26 and 30,740.71 to 31,476.79. Eight sessions of daily ranges read 393.75, 622.25, 522.25, 413.50, 307.25, 378.00, 674.00 and 313.50 points. The prior week spanned 30,356.75 to 31,282.50, this week 30,792.00 to 31,616.50; the 52-week high sits 507.75 above the settle and the 29,053.00 one-month low 2,055.75 beneath it.
Software up, chips down, implied volatility lower and a weekend of Gulf headlines
Software did the lifting. Provider commentary said concerns about slowing demand for artificial-intelligence infrastructure eased after people familiar with the matter said a leading artificial-intelligence developer expects to reach or exceed 70 billion dollars of annualised revenue by year end, refuting Thursday's press report of a 20 billion dollar shortfall. The news feed carried at 2:40 PM ET that the largest software company's chief executive introduced a new in-house model, and at 3:43 PM ET a press report that the largest search company is testing a new version of its model. Megacaps helped. The desk note said the seven largest companies rose about 1 percent as a group and software about 3 percent.
Chips lagged again. The semiconductor index closed at 12,572.42, down 51.29 points or 0.41 percent, after a 12,507.88 to 12,826.67 session, extending Thursday's 3.39 percent decline. The note put the chip fund down about 1 percent and financials up about 1 percent, with one-month implied correlation falling to 6.93 as a dispersion theme continued. Chips missed the rally. In the review's interpretation the gain came from software and the largest companies, which leaves chips as the weak link into next week.
Yields edged up. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.24 percent, up one basis point, and the thirty-year unchanged at 5.60 percent; the dollar index closed at 102.21, up 0.07 percent. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index printed 46.3 against a 47.6 forecast at 10:00 AM ET, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent and five-year at 3.5 percent, per the news feed and unconfirmed against a primary release. Then the rate odds. Provider commentary said markets price a 19 percent chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting.
Implied volatility dropped. The Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility gauge closed at 20.55, down 1.43, and the volatility index at 14.84, down 0.57. The note put the volatility-of-volatility index at 84.88, with S&P 500 at-the-money implied volatility for next week below 10 percent and Monday's near 5.6 percent. It said the S&P 500 hedging-flow measure finished at about minus 8 billion dollars of delta, mostly about minus 6 billion of same-day call selling, while the broader equities measure was relatively flat.
The cash close cleared both model lines. The 5:38 PM ET Friday note carries Thursday's closes in its reference column: 30,725 matches Thursday's 30,725.81 cash close and 747 the fund's 747.57. Against Friday's 30,883.15 close, the index sits 116.85 points beneath the 31,000 gamma concentration, 93.15 above the 30,790 modeled volatility threshold and 236.15 above the 30,647 modeled gamma-flip level. Tilt sits near one. Gamma tilt reads 1.033 for the index and 0.809 for the QQQ fund, with gamma notional of plus 2.187 million and minus 277.483 million. The note lists 31,000, 30,000, 30,500 and 30,300 as key strikes.
On the QQQ proxy the call-side ceiling sits at 760, the threshold and flip level both at 746, the largest concentration at 740 and the put-side base at 700. The console showed a 751.50 quote against the 747.57 previous close, with call gamma of minus 1.14 billion against put gamma of minus 2.34 billion and 22.18 percent of gamma in the nearest expiration, up from 15.70 percent. Fund gamma is negative on both sides. In the review's interpretation a close above both model lines, with index tilt just above one, places the contract in a more dampened zone than on Thursday. The threshold and flip level are model outputs; neither is an option strike.
Volume fell to 479,441 contracts from 701,251 on Thursday; the open-interest column lags one session, so no change is asserted.
Friday's headlines came from the Gulf and Moscow, per the news feed: Iranian state-affiliated media reports at 8:33 AM ET that a large liquefied petroleum gas tanker was hit and caught fire, the President's 11:36 AM ET remark that the Iran matter would be over soon, one way or the other, his 2:46 PM ET call with Russia's president on diesel supply and, at 4:57 PM ET, the Saudi-led coalition's statement on a wide-ranging operation against Houthi capabilities in Yemen. None was confirmed for this review.
The weekend added more, per the news feed. A missile struck the domestic terminals at Riyadh's airport on Saturday, October 10, a second strike was reported Sunday, airport operations were suspended, and the President said Saturday that the United States may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. A drone hit a tanker near Oman's Sohar anchorage just outside the Strait of Hormuz. The Energy Department approved an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels from the strategic reserve for the hurricane disruption, and Russia lifted its diesel export restrictions after Friday's supply arrangement. The contract reopened higher. By 9:48 PM ET it traded near 31,186.25, inside a 31,124.50 to 31,289.25 overnight range.
The trade map for Monday
The primary setup is a long from 30,950 to 31,010. The cash close sits above the modeled volatility threshold and the modeled gamma-flip level, positive direction leads on both directional windows, and the composite reads 80 percent buy. The band wraps Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 and the 30,988.67 published target price and tops out 5.60 points beneath 31,015.60. That band sits under a model line. A fill there means the contract has slipped back under the threshold equivalent, so the thesis is a reclaim of that level, with the 30,872.60 flip equivalent the last modeled line above the 30,780 stop. The targets sit at 31,180, 70.58 above the Pivot Point, 31,380, 29.26 beneath two standard deviations resistance, and an extended 31,580, 0.67 above Pivot R3. Caveats remain. A settle beneath the 5-day average, weak composite strength and lagging chips lead the review to call it an analyst judgment that dips hold above the threshold zone, with no measured edge behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 30,980 midpoint the risk to the stop is 200 points, 44.0 percent of the 14-day average true range of 454.82. The targets sit 200, 400 and 600 points above the midpoint. Exact multiples. Friday's settle sat 98.75 points above the band top. Sunday's quote widens that to 176.25, and 206.25 to the midpoint. The setup needs a pullback to engage, and the Sunday update names the first test: whether the contract holds the 31,109.42 Pivot Point on any dip.
The scenario ranges are analyst judgment. The low-range case runs 30,950 to 31,270, the most likely 30,800 to 31,420 and the high-range case 30,654 to 31,564. Session by session the review expects roughly 30,950 to 31,270 through Globex, with a neutral to higher bias above Pivot S1, 30,940 to 31,300 through London and 30,900 to 31,330 in both the morning and the afternoon. Sunday's 31,289.25 high already sits 19.25 points above the Globex band's top. Friday's inside day leaves Thursday's 31,466.00 high and 30,792.00 low as the outer boundaries.
Monday's calendar carries only central-bank speakers: Bank of England policymakers at 5:30 AM ET and 8:50 AM ET and a regional Federal Reserve president at 12:10 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash session runs 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET on the Columbus Day holiday, with the cash Treasury market closed. Asia follows in the evening. Japanese producer prices at 7:50 PM ET, the Australian central bank's minutes at 8:30 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET follow, also unconfirmed. The week fills fast. Bank earnings begin on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, the September consumer price index lands at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the largest contract chipmaker's earnings conference is set for 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, retail sales and producer prices follow that morning, and the Fed chair speaks on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the calendar lists them.
One path is weighted. In the review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92, with a dip toward the 30,950 to 31,010 band that holds above the 30,872.60 flip equivalent weighted above a break lower. No measured frequency backs it. The alternative is a renewed slide in chip shares, or a weekend escalation that lifts yields and the dollar, carrying the contract through Pivot S2 toward Pivot S3 at 30,638.83.
Friday's whole session fit inside Thursday's; Sunday night's first three hours and 48 minutes already broke above Friday's high.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Monday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 31,108.75 on Friday, up 139.25 points or 0.45 percent from Thursday's settle of 30,969.50, after trading between 31,266.50 and 30,953.00, a 313.50 point daily range. The settle finished at 49.7 percent of the range, and the range was 0.71 times the published 14-day average daily range of 440.54 points. Friday was an inside day against Thursday, with a lower high and a higher low, and its 313.50 point range was the narrowest since the 307.25 point range of 10/06. Over the week the contract rose 47.00 points, or 0.15 percent, from the 31,061.75 settle of 10/02.
The Nasdaq-100 cash index closed at 30,883.15, up 157.34 points or 0.51 percent, after a session range of 30,770.06 to 30,946.74. Provider commentary said stocks settled higher on earnings optimism ahead of next week's bank results, and that concerns about slowing demand for artificial-intelligence infrastructure eased after people familiar with the matter said a leading artificial-intelligence developer expects to reach or exceed 70 billion dollars of annualised revenue by year end, refuting Thursday's press report. The semiconductor index still closed down 0.41 percent at 12,572.42, and the positioning note said semiconductor shares lagged while software rose about 3 percent.
The ten-year yield index closed at 5.24 percent, up one basis point. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index printed 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 at 10:00 AM ET, per the news feed and unconfirmed against a primary release. The cash close sits above the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,790 published in the positioning note, with gamma tilt for the index at 1.033.
The Monday session follows a weekend of Iran, Gulf and Russian supply headlines, and Monday is the Columbus Day holiday with Globex on normal hours, as the calendar lists it. The Primary Setup below is a long from the 30,950 to 31,010 band, around Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 and the published target price at 30,988.67, beneath 31,015.60, the December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold, stopped at 30,780 beneath Pivot S2 at 30,795.92, with objectives at 31,180, 31,380 and an extended 31,580.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Friday session opened at 31,020.50 at the Thursday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 51.00 points above Thursday's settle, marked a daily high of 31,266.50 and a daily low of 30,953.00, and settled at 31,108.75. No complete intraday series was preserved for this session, so this review makes no claim about when the high or the low printed or about the path between them.
After the settle, the chart's 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 31,123.25; that post-settlement quote is not used as the settlement anywhere in this review. Globex is closed for the weekend, so the provider's day open, high and low of 31,020.50, 31,266.50 and 30,953.00 belong to the completed Friday session, and the pivot ladder published for Monday is built from that session.
The session extremes used here are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, back-solved from the outer pivot pairs and verified against every rung. Pivot R3 at 31,579.33 minus Pivot S3 at 30,638.83, divided by three, returns 313.50, and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92 minus Pivot S2 at 30,795.92, divided by two, returns the same 313.50. Three times the Pivot Point of 31,109.42 less the 31,108.75 settle gives a high plus low sum of 62,219.51, one hundredth from the 62,219.50 of the solved pair because the published pivot is rounded, and the pair of 31,266.50 and 30,953.00 reproduces all seven published rungs. Independent corroboration: the provider's overview, the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed Friday daily bar carry the same 31,266.50 high and 30,953.00 low.
2.2 Daily Structure
Friday printed an inside day against Thursday: the 31,266.50 high sits 199.50 points beneath Thursday's 31,466.00, and the 30,953.00 low sits 161.00 points above Thursday's 30,792.00. The settle near the middle of the range leaves an upper shadow of 157.75 points and a lower shadow of 67.50 points on the daily bar. The sequence of session highs over the last six sessions reads 31,282.50, 31,371.00, 31,616.50, 31,521.00, 31,466.00 and 31,266.50, and the sequence of session lows reads 30,760.25, 30,957.50, 31,309.25, 31,143.00, 30,792.00 and 30,953.00. Settlements over the same six sessions ran 31,061.75, 31,317.75, 31,483.25, 31,402.25, 30,969.50 and 31,108.75.
The prior week, September 28 through October 2, spanned 31,282.50 to 30,356.75. This week, October 5 through October 9, spanned 31,616.50 to 30,792.00 and closed 47.00 points higher. The 52-week, 13-week and one-month high of 31,616.50 sits 507.75 points above the settle, and the one-month low of 29,053.00 sits 2,055.75 points beneath it.
No prior-quarter high or low was captured for this review, so the 13-week extremes serve as the available quarterly reference.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last eight sessions ran 393.75, 622.25, 522.25, 413.50, 307.25, 378.00, 674.00 and 313.50. The settlement changes over the same eight sessions read plus 85.50, plus 61.75, plus 301.25, plus 256.00, plus 165.50, minus 81.00, minus 432.75 and plus 139.25.
The retracement grid published for Monday places the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 30,637.24 and the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 30,334.75. No four-hour series was captured for this review, so swing structure here rests on daily bars only.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited in this subsection were computed for this review from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 260 completed sessions through Friday. The 5-day average stands at 31,256.30, the 9-day at 31,046.19, the 20-day at 30,591.46, the 50-day at 30,109.08, the 100-day at 30,039.80 and the 200-day at 28,202.03.
The 31,108.75 settle sits 147.55 points beneath the 5-day average and 62.56 points above the 9-day, 517.29 points above the 20-day and 999.68 points above the 50-day. The 5-day average rose 9.40 points from Thursday's 31,246.90, because the 10/02 settle of 31,061.75 left the window and was replaced by 31,108.75. The 20-day rose 71.23 points from 30,520.24.
The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the last 20 settlements averaged 30,591.46 against 30,109.08 for the full 50, which means the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 29,787.48. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 29,970.52. The projection grid gives the prices at which each average would be crossed on Monday: 31,100.31 for the 9-day, 30,816.25 for the 18-day and 30,168.06 for the 40-day.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page dated for the Friday session and read after the settle; Globex is closed for the weekend, so the page reflects the completed session. The 9-day relative strength reads 59.49 and the 14-day relative strength 59.87.
The 9-day raw stochastic reads 59.20 percent and the 14-day raw stochastic 59.69 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 70.34 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 81.99 percent, so the smoothed lines sit in the upper half of their range with %K beneath %D.
The 9-day directional index ADX reads 25.72 with the 9-day +DI at 22.24 and the 9-day -DI at 18.63; the 14-day directional index ADX reads 18.83 with the 14-day +DI at 23.28 and the 14-day -DI at 18.46, so positive direction leads on both. The 9-day historic volatility reads 10.32 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 11.03 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Friday session is 80 percent buy, unchanged from the prior session's snapshot, with signal strength described as weak and direction as average. The snapshot history reads 88 percent buy a week ago and 16 percent sell a month ago. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent buy, the medium-horizon group 50 percent buy and the long-horizon group 100 percent buy, and the composite trend indicator reads buy.
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 454.82 points and the 14-day average daily range at 440.54 points; the 9-day average true range is 449.38 with a 9-day average daily range of 442.00, and the 20-day average true range is 466.85 with a 20-day average daily range of 464.95. Friday's 313.50 point range was 0.71 times the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 454.82 points from the 31,108.75 settle frames Monday between 30,653.93 and 31,563.57. The published standard-deviation bands are narrower because they are built from five settlements: one deviation spans 30,896.26 to 31,321.24, two spans 30,808.24 to 31,409.26 and three spans 30,740.71 to 31,476.79. These bands describe settlement dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
The settle at 31,108.75 sits 0.67 points beneath the Pivot Point at 31,109.42, the first resistance. The 31,225.60 December equivalent of the largest gamma concentration at NDX 31,000, the 5-day settlement average at 31,256.30, Pivot R1 at 31,265.83 and Friday's 31,266.50 high come next. One standard deviation resistance at 31,321.24, two standard deviations resistance at 31,409.26 and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92 follow. Thursday's 31,466.00 high, three standard deviations resistance at 31,476.79, Pivot R3 at 31,579.33 and the 31,616.50 52-week high are the extended references.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle, the 9-day average crossing price at 31,100.31 and the 9-day settlement average at 31,046.19 come first. The 31,015.60 December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,790, the published target price at 30,988.67, Friday's 30,953.00 low and Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 form the band that anchors the setup. One standard deviation support at 30,896.26, the 30,872.60 December equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,647, the 18-day average crossing price at 30,816.25, two standard deviations support at 30,808.24 and Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 form the next grouping. Thursday's 30,792.00 low, three standard deviations support at 30,740.71, Pivot S3 at 30,638.83 and the 20-day settlement average at 30,591.46 follow, with the 30,425.60 December equivalent of the primary put side support base at NDX 30,200 beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Mag7 Earnings and AI Capex Cycle
Provider commentary said concerns about slowing demand for artificial-intelligence infrastructure eased on Friday after people familiar with the matter said a leading artificial-intelligence developer expects to reach or exceed 70 billion dollars of annualised revenue by year end, refuting Thursday's press report of a 20 billion dollar shortfall. The news feed carried at 2:40 PM ET that the largest software company's chief executive introduced a new in-house model, and at 3:43 PM ET a press report that the largest search company is testing a new version of its model. The positioning note said the seven largest companies rose about 1 percent as a group. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday; provider commentary said third-quarter earnings season begins next week with the money-centre banks.
4.2 Semiconductor Cycle and Tech Sector Rotation
The semiconductor index closed at 12,572.42, down 51.29 points or 0.41 percent, after a session range of 12,507.88 to 12,826.67, extending Thursday's 3.39 percent decline. The positioning note said semiconductors lagged with the chip fund down about 1 percent, while software rose about 3 percent and financials about 1 percent, and that a dispersion theme continued with its one-month implied correlation measure falling to 6.93. In this review's interpretation the gain in the Nasdaq-100 came from software and the largest companies rather than from chips, which leaves the semiconductor group as the weak link into next week.
4.3 Fed Policy and Real Yields (Duration Sensitivity)
The ten-year yield index closed at 5.24 percent, up one basis point. The thirty-year yield index closed unchanged at 5.60 percent. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index printed 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 at 10:00 AM ET, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent and five-year expectations at 3.5 percent, per the news feed and unconfirmed against a primary release. Provider commentary said markets price a 19 percent chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting. The consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
4.4 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 8:33 AM ET Iranian state-affiliated media reports that a large liquefied petroleum gas tanker was hit and caught fire, and at 11:36 AM ET the President said the Iran matter would be over soon, one way or the other. At 2:46 PM ET he said he had concluded a call with Russia's president on diesel supply. After the cash close, at 4:57 PM ET, the Saudi-led coalition said it is carrying out a wide-ranging operation against Houthi capabilities in Yemen. These are statements carried by the news feed rather than events confirmed for this review. November WTI crude settled up 0.39 percent.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility gauge closed at 20.55, down 1.43. The S&P 500 volatility index closed at 14.84, down 0.57. The positioning note put the volatility-of-volatility index at 84.88 and said near-term implied volatility fell one to two points, with S&P 500 at-the-money implied volatility for next week below 10 percent and Monday's near 5.6 percent. The dollar index closed at 102.21, up 0.07 percent. The December contract's settle of 31,108.75 less the 30,883.15 cash close gives a measured closing basis of 225.60 points, against 243.69 on Thursday.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
Friday's volume on the December contract was 479,441 contracts against 701,251 on Thursday. The open-interest column on the provider's settlement series lags one session, so no open-interest change is asserted for Friday. The positioning note said the S&P 500 hedging-flow measure finished at about minus 8 billion dollars of delta, driven mainly by about minus 6 billion of same-day call selling, while the broader equities measure was relatively flat, and that the short tenor of the flow suggests traders did not add longer-dated risk ahead of the weekend.
5. QQQ Options Flow Context (Proxy)
This review uses the QQQ fund as the proxy for the positioning dataset available, alongside the index levels published in the same positioning note. The positioning note read for this section is the 5:38 PM ET edition for Friday. Its reference prices are the prior session's closes, not Friday's: NDX 30,725 equals Thursday's 30,725.81 cash close and QQQ 747 equals Thursday's 747.57 fund close, and 30,725.81 plus 0.51 percent gives 30,882.5, consistent with the provider's 30,883.15 close. Every level below is read against Friday's 30,883.15 cash close.
On the Nasdaq-100 index the largest gamma concentration sits at NDX 31,000, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,790, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,647 and the primary put side support base at NDX 30,200. The published call side figure of NDX 29,475 sits beneath the put side figure and beneath the close, so it is treated as low-confidence and excluded. The 30,883.15 cash close sits 116.85 points beneath the 31,000 concentration, 93.15 points above the threshold and 236.15 points above the flip level. The note lists NDX 31,000, 30,000, 30,500 and 30,300 as key strikes. Gamma tilt reads 1.033 for the index and 0.809 for the fund, and gamma notional reads plus 2.187 million for the index and minus 277.483 million for the fund.
On the QQQ proxy the primary call side ceiling sits at 760, the modeled volatility threshold and the modeled gamma-flip level both at 746, the largest gamma concentration at 740 and the primary put side support base at 700. The fund's positioning console, Date Updated 2026-10-09, showed a 751.50 quote against a 747.57 previous close, above the 746 threshold, with call gamma of minus 1.14 billion against put gamma of minus 2.34 billion and 22.18 percent of gamma attributed to the nearest expiration, up from 15.70 percent in Thursday's read. The console's high and low volatility point fields are treated as low-confidence and excluded.
At the measured closing basis of 225.60 points, the December settlement of 31,108.75 less the 30,883.15 cash close, NDX 31,000 corresponds to 31,225.60 on the December contract, the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,790 to 31,015.60, the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,647 to 30,872.60 and the put side support base at NDX 30,200 to 30,425.60. These are conversions made by this review; the source publishes no Nasdaq futures pair, and the modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes.
In this review's interpretation a cash close above both the modeled volatility threshold and the flip level, with index gamma tilt just above one, places the contract in a more dampened zone than on Thursday, and the 31,015.60 threshold equivalent is the level the setup in section 8 buys beneath.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Sunday to 3:00 AM ET Monday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, after two days of weekend headline exposure, with the 4:57 PM ET Friday coalition statement on Yemen, the Hormuz tanker reports and the Russian diesel arrangement unresolved at the close. A gap above Pivot R1 at 31,265.83 or beneath Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 would reset the level map. Bias neutral to higher above Pivot S1, expected Globex band roughly 30,950 to 31,270.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Monday)
A Bank of England policymaker is listed at 5:30 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Friday's inside day leaves Thursday's 31,466.00 high and 30,792.00 low as the outer boundaries. Bias neutral to higher, expected band roughly 30,940 to 31,300, with the 30,950 to 31,010 band the first meaningful support beneath the Pivot Point.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Monday, RTH Open)
A second Bank of England policymaker is listed at 8:50 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET sets the session's first directional test on the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours, as the calendar lists it. Expected band roughly 30,900 to 31,330.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Monday)
A regional Federal Reserve president is listed at 12:10 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash close follows at 4:00 PM ET. Expected band roughly 30,900 to 31,330.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Monday)
The Tuesday session opens at 6:00 PM ET Monday. Japanese producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET, both per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Bank earnings begin on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Monday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 30,950 to 31,270
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 30,800 to 31,420
High-range scenario: 30,654 to 31,564
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92, with a dip toward the 30,950 to 31,010 band that holds above the 30,872.60 flip equivalent weighted above a break lower, because the cash close sits above the modeled volatility threshold, positive direction leads on the directional systems and the composite reads 80 percent buy. The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a renewed slide in chip shares, or a weekend escalation that lifts yields and the dollar, carrying the contract through Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 toward Pivot S3 at 30,638.83.
7. Monday Economic Calendar
Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11. Monday, October 12, is the Columbus Day holiday, with Globex on normal hours and products settling at normal times, as the calendar lists it; the Federal Reserve is closed and its daily statistical releases move to Tuesday, as the same calendar lists it.
A Bank of England policymaker is listed at 5:30 AM ET and a second at 8:50 AM ET, and a regional Federal Reserve president at 12:10 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The cash session runs from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET. Japanese producer prices are listed at 7:50 PM ET, the Australian central bank's minutes at 8:30 PM ET and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook at 10:00 PM ET, all per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. The captured calendars carry no mega-capitalisation earnings entry for Monday.
Later in the week, bank earnings begin on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with the largest bank's results at about 7:00 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The consumer price index for September is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, as the calendar lists it, and the largest contract chipmaker's earnings conference for 2:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as the calendar lists it. In this review's judgment the captured calendars carry only central-bank speakers for Monday, so the first-order influences on the Nasdaq-100 are weekend headlines and chip-sector follow-through, with the September consumer price index on Wednesday the week's key scheduled event.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The cash close sits above the modeled volatility threshold at NDX 30,790 and the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 30,647, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite reads 80 percent buy; a dip into Pivot S1 at 30,952.33 and the published target price at 30,988.67, beneath 31,015.60, the December equivalent of that threshold, offers a long with a defined risk point beneath Pivot S2 at 30,795.92. Because the band sits beneath 31,015.60, a fill means the contract has slipped back under the December equivalent of the modeled volatility threshold, so the thesis is a reclaim of that level rather than a hold above it, with the 30,872.60 flip equivalent the last modeled level above the 30,780 stop. The settle sits beneath the 5-day average, the composite's strength is described as weak and chip shares lagged on Friday, so the setup is an analyst judgment that dips hold above the threshold zone, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 30,950 to 31,010
Stop Loss: 30,780 (beneath Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 and the 30,872.60 gamma-flip equivalent)
Target 1 (T1): 31,180 (70.58 above the Pivot Point at 31,109.42)
Target 2 (T2): 31,380 (29.26 beneath two standard deviations resistance at 31,409.26)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 31,580 (0.67 above Pivot R3 at 31,579.33 and 36.50 beneath the 31,616.50 52-week high)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath Pivot S2 at 30,795.92 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath 30,872.60, the December equivalent of the modeled gamma-flip level, rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 30,872.60.
Macro override: A renewed slide in chip shares, or a weekend escalation that lifts yields and the dollar, would invalidate the long in real time. In that scenario a gap beneath the 30,780 stop removes the setup before entry, and Pivot S3 at 30,638.83 and the 30,425.60 put side equivalent become the references within one 14-day average true range of 454.82 points.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Friday's close on October 9, 2026 for the Monday, October 12, 2026 session, and from the Sunday evening update written at 9:48 PM ET on October 11, 2026, which carries the overnight quotes and weekend headlines. Friday's completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 31,579.33 less Pivot S3 at 30,638.83, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 31,422.92 less Pivot S2 at 30,795.92, divided by two, both return 313.50, and three times the 31,109.42 Pivot Point less the settle gives 62,219.51, 0.01 from the 62,219.50 of the solved pair of 31,266.50 and 30,953.00. The provider's overview, settlement row and the chart's completed Friday bar carry the same extremes, and only those figures and the review's statements are used to grade Friday's card. No complete intraday series was preserved, so no claim is made about when the high or low printed. Thursday's volume now reads 701,251 contracts in the review.
The moving averages were computed from the provider's 260-session daily settlement series; the oscillators are cited as published for the Friday session, read after the settle with Globex closed. The desk note used is the 5:38 PM ET Friday edition, with Thursday's closes in its reference column; every Nasdaq futures equivalent is our conversion at the 225.60 point measured basis. The QQQ fund is a proxy read alongside the index levels; its console's high and low volatility point fields and the note's 29,475 call-side figure are excluded as low-confidence. The 100-day and 200-day distances are computed from the stated averages. Sunday quotes are those in the 9:48 PM ET update, with the session still open. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment, and items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or press reports.
Friday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the S&P 500 contract’s Friday outlook covers the index that rose 0.59 percent in cash on Friday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
