Crude Oil 86.04: Short 87.30 to 87.60 Under Pivot R1

Executive Summary

The December crude contract settled at 86.04 on Tuesday, down 0.81 or 0.93 percent from Monday's settle of 86.85, after trading between 86.93 and 83.88, a 3.05 point daily range. The settle finished at 70.8 percent of the range, and the range was 0.67 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 4.55 points. Tuesday printed a lower high, 4.49 beneath Monday's 91.42, and a lower low, 1.14 beneath Monday's 85.02, and settled lower for a second session.

The settle is the lowest since 09/04/26, when the contract settled at 85.46, and the 83.88 low is the lowest since the 83.15 low of 09/04/26. The 3.05 point range is the narrowest since the 2.56 point range of 10/30/26. Over five sessions the contract is down 10.05 from the 96.09 settle of 11/03/26, a decline of 10.46 percent.

The low came before the US morning and the recovery came in the cash hours. The contract made the 83.88 low in the 4:30 AM ET bar, fell 0.73 in the 8:30 AM ET bar as the October consumer price index printed hotter than forecast, and then rose through the morning, with the 11:00 AM ET bar gaining 1.06 to 86.73, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session. The inflation print and the 8:30 AM ET decline coincided; the series does not separate the effect of the print from the dollar's response.

The provider's market commentary attributed the second day of declines to optimism over Iran diplomacy, which is attributed commentary. Brent's January contract settled at 91.49, down 1.08 dollars or 1.17 percent, per a news-feed settlement item and the settlement record. The dollar index closed at 102.23, up 0.57 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.98 percent after reaching 5.02 percent.

After the settle, at 4:48 PM ET, the news feed reported an industry estimate of a 9.8 million barrel crude inventory draw against a forecast 1 million barrel draw, with a 5.1 million barrel build at Cushing, a news-feed item that is unconfirmed against the verified calendar.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Tuesday evening is "32% SELL" with strength "Weak" and direction "Average", against "24% SELL" a session earlier. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day settlement averages and above the 100-day and 200-day. The primary setup is a short from the 87.30 to 87.60 band, around Pivot R1 at 87.35, stopped at 88.20, with objectives at 86.70, 85.95 and an extended 85.20. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday with CME Globex on normal hours, per the verified forward calendar, and the weekly government petroleum report moves to 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

Price Action & Technical Structure

Intraday and Session Review

The Tuesday session opened at 86.43 at the Monday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 0.42 beneath Monday's settle, and the 30-minute series places the high of 86.93 in the 8:00 PM ET bar on Monday and the low of 83.88 in the 4:30 AM ET bar on Tuesday. Between the 6:00 PM ET reopen and 3:00 AM ET the bars held between 84.83 and 86.93 and closed that window at 85.32, with the 2:30 AM ET bar making the 84.83 low of that window.

From 3:00 AM ET to the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded between 83.88 and 85.94. The 4:30 AM ET bar made the session low of 83.88, and the 5:00 AM ET bar rose 0.73 to 85.11. The 8:30 AM ET bar, which contained the release of the consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, fell 0.73 from 85.16 to 84.43 and traded down to 84.06, the largest decline of any 30-minute bar in the session; the 9:00 AM ET bar closed the window at 84.59.

Across the cash hours, from 9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET, the bars held between 84.45 and 86.83. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 0.90 to 85.49, and the 11:00 AM ET bar rose 1.06 to 86.73 and reached 86.83, the high of the cash hours. From 12:00 PM ET the bars held between 85.75 and 86.80, the 1:30 PM ET bar and the 2:00 PM ET bar both traded down to the 85.75 area, and the settle was fixed at 2:30 PM ET at 86.04. The 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 86.44, 0.40 above the settle.

The provider's overview page, read at 6:25 PM ET, carries an open of 86.43, a high of 86.45 and a low of 86.21 that belong to the Globex session that reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, not to Tuesday's completed session; its previous close field reads 86.04. Tuesday's completed range is instead recovered from the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 90.40 minus Pivot S3 at 81.25, divided by three, returns 3.05, and Pivot R2 at 88.67 minus Pivot S2 at 82.57, divided by two, returns the same 3.05. Three times the Pivot Point at 85.62, less the 86.04 settle, gives a high plus low sum of 170.82, within the rounding of the published Pivot Point at 85.62, which with the 3.05 range solves to a high of 86.935 and a low of 83.885, or 86.93 and 83.88 at the published two-decimal rounding.

That pair, with the 86.04 settle, reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row, the chart's completed daily bar and the 30-minute series, which carry the same 86.43 open, 86.93 high, 83.88 low and 86.04 settle, and by the provider's one-month low of 83.88 dated 11/10/26.

Daily Structure

Tuesday printed a lower high and a lower low against Monday and settled 0.81 lower, a second consecutive lower settle. Settlements over the last six sessions read 96.09, 88.12, 90.52, 90.83, 86.85 and 86.04, so the contract has given back the 2.71 points recovered on Thursday and Friday and settled 2.08 beneath Wednesday's 88.12. Over five sessions the contract is down 10.05 from the 96.09 settle of 11/03, which the provider also publishes as a 10.46 percent five-day change.

The settle is the lowest since the 85.46 settle of 09/04/26, and the 83.88 low is the lowest since the 83.15 low of 09/04/26. The provider publishes 104.99 as the 52-week, 13-week and one-month high, 83.88 as the one-month low and 76.67 as the 13-week low. The settle sits 0.09 beneath the 86.13 level published as the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low, and 1.45 beneath the 87.49 level published as the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low.

The settle finished at 70.8 percent of the day's range, 2.16 above the 83.88 low and 0.89 beneath the 86.93 high. In our reading the close in the upper part of a narrower range, after a 4.38 percent decline on Monday, describes a pause in the decline rather than a reversal, because the settle still printed the lowest level since 09/04/26.

4-Hour and Swing Structure

Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/28, ran 3.80, 3.21, 2.56, 7.60, 5.23, 10.02, 4.67, 3.46, 6.40 and 3.05, so the range contracted on Tuesday to the narrowest since the 2.56 point range of 10/30/26. In the 30-minute series no bar moved more than 1.06 from open to close, and three bars, at 8:30 AM ET, 9:30 AM ET and 11:00 AM ET, spanned more than 1.20 from high to low.

The swing sequence since the 104.99 high of 10/30 shows lower highs at 102.75, 98.82, 97.15 and 91.32 through Thursday, a higher high at 92.53 on Friday, and lower highs at 91.42 on Monday and 86.93 on Tuesday. The lows read 89.07 on Friday, 85.02 on Monday and 83.88 on Tuesday. The published grid places the 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low at 86.13, the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low at 87.49, the 50 percent retracement of the 52-week range at 80.31 and the 13-week low at 76.67.

Moving Averages

The averages cited here were computed for this outlook from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/30/25 through Tuesday; the partial row dated Wednesday, opened by the 6:00 PM ET Globex reopen, was excluded before counting, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the cent. The 5-day average stands at 88.47, the 9-day at 93.45, the 20-day at 96.56, the 50-day at 92.44, the 100-day at 83.99 and the 200-day at 78.73.

The 86.04 settle sits 2.43 beneath the 5-day average, 7.41 beneath the 9-day, 10.52 beneath the 20-day and 6.40 beneath the 50-day, and 2.05 above the 100-day and 7.31 above the 200-day. It is the seventh consecutive settle beneath the 20-day average, the last settle above it on 10/30/26, and the fifth consecutive settle beneath the 50-day, the last settle above it on 11/03/26. The 5-day average fell from Monday's 90.48 as Tuesday's settle replaced the 11/03 settle of 96.09, and the 9-day fell from 95.31.

The 20-day average sits above the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged lower, at 89.70. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 75.54, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 73.46. The projection grid gives 78.29 as the level at which the 3-day and 10-day averages would cross.

Oscillator and Trend Readings

The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:26 PM ET on Tuesday after the Globex reopen, so they may include the live price of the reopened session; they are the provider's readings, not our computations. The 9-day relative strength reads 30.59, the 14-day relative strength 37.03 and the 20-day relative strength 41.68.

The 9-day, 14-day and 20-day raw stochastic all read 10.23 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 14.06 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 16.08 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 47.61 with the 9-day +DI at 11.05 and the 9-day -DI at 33.14, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 37.28 with the 14-day +DI at 14.09 and the 14-day -DI at 27.85, so negative direction leads on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 58.49 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 58.12 percent.

The composite multi-indicator read published on Tuesday evening, on a page titled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, is "32% SELL", with signal strength "Weak" and direction "Average". The snapshot history reads "24% SELL" for the prior session, "8% BUY" a week ago and "80% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "60% SELL", the medium group "50% SELL" and the long group "67% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".

Volatility and Expected Range

The published 14-day average true range stands at 4.46 points and the 14-day average daily range at 4.55 points; the 9-day average true range is 4.73 with a 9-day average daily range of 5.13, and the 20-day average true range is 4.21 with a 20-day average daily range of 4.36. Tuesday's 3.05 point range was 0.67 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.

Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 4.46 from the 86.04 settle frames Wednesday between 81.58 and 90.50. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 83.89 to 88.19 at one deviation, 83.00 to 89.08 at two and 82.32 to 89.76 at three. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach, and the holiday-shortened week moves the government inventory data to Thursday, which shifts event exposure out of Wednesday's session.

Key Levels

Resistance

Above the 86.04 settle, the first references are the 86.44 close of the 4:30 PM ET bar and the 86.93 session high, with the 86.83 cash-hours high just beneath it. Pivot R1 at 87.35 and the 87.49 retracement from the 13-week low form the next band. The 88.10 projection for the 20 percent raw stochastic, the 88.12 stall of the 14-day %K line and one standard deviation resistance at 88.19 sit above it, followed by the 5-day average at 88.47 and Pivot R2 at 88.67. The 89.08 two-deviation band and the 50-day average at 92.44 are the deeper references.

Support

Beneath the settle sits the Pivot Point at 85.62. The 84.75 published target price and Pivot S1 at 84.30 lead into the 83.89 one standard deviation support and Tuesday's 83.88 low, now the one-month low. Two standard deviation support at 83.00, the 83.15 low of 09/04/26 and Pivot S2 at 82.57 form the next band, with Pivot S3 at 81.25 and the 80.31 midpoint of the 52-week range as the deeper references.

Macro Drivers

OPEC and Supply Policy (Quotas, Compliance, Saudi/Russia Signals)

The captured feeds for Tuesday carry supply-risk reports rather than supply policy. The producer group's monthly report is listed for 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed against the verified forward calendar.

EIA and API Inventory (Crude Stocks, Gasoline, Distillates, Cushing, SPR)

At 4:48 PM ET the news feed reported an industry estimate of a 9.8 million barrel crude draw against a forecast 1 million barrel draw and a prior 5.267 million barrel draw, a 5.1 million barrel build at Cushing, an 8 million barrel distillate draw and a 2.7 million barrel gasoline build; that is a news-feed item, unconfirmed against the verified calendar, and it printed after the 2:30 PM ET settle. The weekly government petroleum report moves to 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 because of the Veterans Day holiday, per the verified forward calendar. The Short-Term Energy Outlook was scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar; its contents were not captured this analysis.

Geopolitical backdrop

Feeds carried reports on Iran diplomacy through the afternoon. These are reports carried by the feeds, and the settlement series does not establish that any single item caused a particular move.

Demand and Refining (Refinery Utilization, Crack Spreads, Seasonal Pattern)

Heating oil's December contract settled at 4.1309 dollars a gallon, down 1.99 percent, and gasoline's December contract at 2.6088, down 1.59 percent, against crude's 0.93 percent decline. Measured on the December contracts, the heating oil margin over December WTI narrowed to 87.46 dollars a barrel from 90.17, and the gasoline margin narrowed to 23.53 from 24.49. The provider's commentary described gasoline at an 8-month low, which is attributed commentary.

Dollar and Cross-Asset (DXY, Commodities Complex, Equity Risk-On/Off)

The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October against a 0.3 percent forecast, and the core index 0.3 percent against a 0.2 percent forecast, per the news-feed calendar's actual values for the 8:30 AM ET release scheduled on the verified forward calendar. The dollar index's daily record closed at 102.23, up 0.57 percent, and the ten-year yield index closed at 4.98 percent, up 12 basis points, after a 5.02 percent high. Gold's December contract fell 2.05 percent and silver's December contract 2.79 percent, and the S&P 500 cash index fell 0.38 percent. Crude's recovery from the 4:30 AM ET low came while the dollar firmed and yields rose; these moves coincided, and the data captured no series that separates their effects.

The macro feed carried remarks from Fed officials after the data: at 11:15 AM ET a headline that a Fed official sees two more hikes, a news-feed item unconfirmed against the verified calendar, and from 3:31 PM ET remarks from the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision that the data suggest inflation pressures may persist. At 4:00 AM ET the market-moving feed carried remarks from a Fed Governor that a half-point hike may be needed in December if October core inflation came in around 0.3 percent or higher. For crude, these items bear on demand expectations through the dollar and rates rather than on supply.

Institutional Positioning (COT, Money Manager vs Commercial Hedger, Speculator Length)

The latest weekly positioning report, for the week to Tuesday, November 3, 2026, shows managed money at 147,382 long, down 10,051, against 125,654 short, down 651, as listed on the provider's overview and not recomputed. Tuesday's December volume was 263,404 contracts against 337,279 on Monday, per the settlement record. December's premium over January widened to 1.18 from 1.16, and Brent's January premium over January WTI narrowed to 6.63 from 6.88 as Brent's January contract fell 1.17 percent against 0.97 percent for January WTI.

Positioning inputs

Crude carries no options positioning map in this outlook. Every level comes from published pivot arithmetic, published standard-deviation bands, published retracement and moving-average projections, settlement averages computed from the daily record, or Tuesday’s session extremes. The positioning inputs are the Brent spread, the front calendar spread, the product margins, the volume record and the weekly positioning figures.

Forecast

Night Session (6:00 PM ET Tuesday to 3:00 AM ET Wednesday, Globex/Asia)

Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday with the overview showing an 86.43 open, above the 86.04 settle, after the 4:48 PM ET industry inventory estimate. Remarks by the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision are scheduled for 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Bias neutral between the Pivot Point at 85.62 and Pivot R1 at 87.35, expected band roughly 85.40 to 87.20.

London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Wednesday)

Remarks by the European Central Bank President are listed for 3:45 AM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral beneath Pivot R1 at 87.35, expected band roughly 85.20 to 87.30.

Morning Session (9:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET Wednesday, US Open / Pit Session)

The producer group's monthly report is listed for 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the 9:30 AM ET equity cash open follows. Expected band roughly 84.90 to 87.60, with the 87.30 to 87.60 setup band at the top.

Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET Wednesday, NYMEX Pit Close)

The settlement at 2:30 PM ET fixes the reference on the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours and normal settlement times, per the verified forward calendar. Expected band roughly 85.00 to 87.40.

Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Wednesday)

The Wednesday evening session carries into the weekly government petroleum report at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Japanese producer prices are listed for 6:50 PM ET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Expected Range (Wednesday Full Session)

• Low-range scenario: 85.20 to 87.00
• Mid-range scenario (most likely): 84.30 to 87.60
• High-range scenario: 83.00 to 88.70

Most Likely Path

In our analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 85.62 and Pivot R1 at 87.35, with a rebound toward the 87.30 to 87.60 band that stalls beneath the 88.12 to 88.19 grouping weighted above a settle through it. The composite reads "32% SELL" with strength "Weak", negative direction leads on both directional systems and the settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day averages at the lowest level since 09/04/26, which in our reading favours selling a rebound rather than chasing a further decline from the reopen.

The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle above Pivot R2 at 88.67, which would bring the 89.08 two-deviation band and the 92.44 50-day average into play; the after-close inventory estimate and the pipeline report are the inputs most likely to drive that alternative. On the other side, further progress in Iran diplomacy could carry the contract through Tuesday's 83.88 low toward Pivot S2 at 82.57 without the rebound the setup needs.

Calendar

Tuesday's releases are complete. The consumer price index was released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the news-feed calendar records a monthly headline rise of 0.4 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast and a core rise of 0.3 percent against 0.2 percent. The Short-Term Energy Outlook was scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. The news feed reported a ten-year note auction high yield of 5.02 percent at 1:00 PM ET, a feed item unconfirmed against the verified calendar. December WTI settled at 2:30 PM ET at 86.04.

Remarks by the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision were scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, with a second appearance at 6:30 PM ET. Wednesday, November 11, 2026 is the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex on normal hours and normal settlement times and banks closed, per the verified forward calendar. The producer group's monthly report is listed for 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Later in the week, the weekly government petroleum report is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026 and the producer price index for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, both per the verified forward calendar. Weekly jobless claims are listed for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.

Primary setup

Direction: Short

Rationale: The contract settled at the lowest level since 09/04/26 and beneath the 50-day average for a fifth session, the composite reads "32% SELL" and negative direction leads on both directional systems, while the 11:00 AM ET rebound stopped at 86.83 and the session high at 86.93. A rebound into the 87.30 to 87.60 band, around Pivot R1 at 87.35 and the 87.49 retracement from the 13-week low, offers a short with a defined risk point above the 88.10 to 88.19 grouping. A stretched decline, an after-close inventory draw and a Gulf supply headline can carry price through the band, so the setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold, not a measured edge.

Entry Zone: 87.30 to 87.60

Stop Loss: 88.20 (above the 88.12 stall of the 14-day %K line and one standard deviation resistance at 88.19)

Target 1 (T1): 86.70 (beneath the 86.83 cash-hours high)

Target 2 (T2): 85.95 (beneath the 86.04 settle, above the Pivot Point at 85.62)

Target 3 (T3, extended): 85.20 (above the 84.75 published target price)

Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3

Invalidation: A settle above Pivot R2 at 88.67 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance above the entry band rather than by a touch, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes above 87.60.

Macro override: A setback in Iran diplomacy, a new supply disruption in the Gulf, or a government inventory figure that confirms the industry draw would lift the contract. In that scenario a move through the 88.20 stop invalidates the short before the targets, and Pivot R2 at 88.67 becomes the reference, 0.47 beyond the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 4.46.