Our Wednesday outlook set a short from 7,527 to 7,535 at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday. The band first traded in the 11:30 PM ET bar. The very next bar ran to 7,559.50, through the 7,556 stop, and the closes then held above the band. Before any entry the contract had already printed beneath the 7,506 first target. The second and third targets never traded. No fill and no result is asserted.
Then the day turned. December E-mini futures settled at 7,720.50 on Wednesday, up 123.75 points or 1.63 percent, after a 256.25 point range from 7,490.00 to 7,746.25. That range is the widest of the 259 completed sessions in the series. The low came in the 10:00 PM ET bar and the high in the 1:00 PM ET bar. The settle finished at 90.0 percent of the range.
December S&P 500 futures settled at 7,720.50 on Wednesday after an outside day, above the 5-day, 9-day, 100-day and 200-day settlement averages and 20.75 and 29.75 points beneath the 20-day and 50-day. Thursday’s setup is a long from 7,680 to 7,688. The whole band sits beneath the settle, its top 32.50 points down, with its bottom 3.12 above the 7,676.88 conversion of the 7,645 modeled volatility threshold. The stop is 7,662, 9.75 above the Pivot Point at 7,652.25. The first target, 7,706, sits 14.50 beneath the settle; the second, 7,728, and an extended 7,750 sit above it. Per the dataset’s model levels, the 7,688.62 cash close sits 43.62 points above that threshold and 11.38 beneath the 7,700 resistance (ES 7,731.88 at the measured basis). Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, as the calendar lists it.
Wednesday’s short met its stop one bar after the band traded
In Wednesday’s outlook we set a short from 7,527 to 7,535 at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, four hours into the session it was written for. Its stop sat at 7,556. The targets were 7,506, 7,481 and an extended 7,456. We grade it from 10:15 PM ET forward. Wednesday’s completed bar, from the review and the dated 2026-11-04 row, opened at 7,610.25 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen. It ranged from 7,490.00 to 7,746.25 and settled at 7,720.50.
Some trade came before the card existed. The 8:30 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars crossed the 7,527 to 7,535 band, and the 9:30 PM ET bar reached 7,506.00. Those prints predate the levels, so none counts. The 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time. It ranged from 7,490.00 to 7,511.75, through the first target and 15.25 beneath the band, and the order inside it is unknown.
After 10:15 PM ET the contract sat beneath the first target before any entry. The 10:30 PM ET bar reached 7,500.75 and the 11:00 PM ET bar 7,498.25. For a short, a target print ahead of the band does not count. The band traded at last in the 11:30 PM ET bar. That bar opened at 7,501.25, fell to 7,493.50, rose to 7,534.25, 0.75 beneath the band top, and closed at 7,531.25. Its internal order is not established.
Then the stop. The 12:00 AM ET bar ran from 7,530.50 to 7,559.50, 3.50 through 7,556. It closed at 7,554.00 and the 12:30 AM ET bar at 7,567.50. That pair met the acceptance test the card named, two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,535. From the 12:00 AM ET bar on, the lowest print was 7,530.50, 24.50 above the first target. The second and third targets never traded all session; the 7,490.00 low sat 9.00 above 7,481. No fill and no result is asserted.
The thesis line went too. The card negated its thesis on a settle above Pivot S1 at 7,553.92. Wednesday settled 166.58 points above it. The 2:30 AM ET bar first traded above the Pivot Point at 7,588.83, the card’s override reference. Of the card’s ranked paths, this was the second: a settle above Pivot S1 that brings the Pivot Point back into play.
Our ranges missed on the high side. Wednesday’s 7,746.25 high sat 146.25 above the top of even the high-range case, 7,400 to 7,600, while the low held 90.00 above its bottom. After 10:15 PM ET the night session reached 7,591.25, 46.25 over its 7,545 band top. London, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, traded from 7,588.25 to 7,687.75, wholly above its 7,450 to 7,550 band. The morning and afternoon bands sat beneath every print of their sessions. We grade the card as written: band, then stop, then the acceptance closes, with no result claimed.
Up 123.75 to 7,720.50 on a 256.25 point outside day
December E-mini futures settled at 7,720.50 on Wednesday, up 123.75 points or 1.63 percent from Tuesday’s 7,596.75. The range ran 256.25 points. That is the widest of the 259 completed sessions in the series, ahead of 242.00 on 06/09/26. The range was 2.44 times the 14-day average daily range of 105.13 points.
It was an outside day. The high cleared Tuesday’s 7,623.75 by 122.50 and the low undercut Tuesday’s 7,546.00 by 56.00. It was also the second higher settle in a row. The gain is the largest one-session gain since 08/04/26, when the contract rose 139.00. The low is the lowest since the 7,396.00 low of 07/30/26, and the settle the highest since the 7,754.25 settle of 10/29/26.
The session came in two halves. From the 7,633.50 high of the 6:30 PM ET bar the contract fell to 7,490.00 in the 10:00 PM ET bar. The 7:00 PM ET, 8:00 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars fell 26.25, 30.00 and 23.00, the three largest declines of the session. Through those hours the news feed carried commentary on the US midterm election results, and the two coincided. The bars do not establish that any of it caused a move.
The recovery began with the 11:30 PM ET bar, up 30.00. Between 3:00 AM ET and the 9:30 AM ET cash open the contract traded from 7,588.25 to 7,692.50. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 43.00, from 7,683.00 to 7,726.00, and its 7,679.75 low held as the cash-session low. The 11:30 AM ET bar rose 44.50, from 7,695.25 to 7,739.75, the largest 30-minute gain of the session. The 1:00 PM ET bar made the 7,746.25 high. From the 12:00 PM ET bar through the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 7,712.75 and 7,746.25. The settle sits 1.25 beneath the 7,721.75 close of the 3:30 PM ET bar, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 7,734.50, 14.00 above it.
The basis widened. Wednesday’s settle less the 7,688.62 cash close measures 31.88 points, against 27.83 on Tuesday. Every cash equivalent here uses the new figure. The dataset keeps its own 29.35 point offset, 2.53 narrower. Its published futures pairs are 8,129.35 for the 8,100 call-side ceiling, 8,029.35 for the 8,000 gamma concentration, 7,674.35 for the 7,645 modeled volatility threshold, 7,610.35 for the 7,581 modeled gamma-flip level and 7,529.35 for the 7,500 put-side support base.
Resistance comes first. It starts 2.53 points above the settle, at 7,723.03, the price that would cross the 18-day average on Thursday (cash 7,691.15). The 7,727.54 projection for a 50 percent 14-day relative strength, the 7,728.44 published target price and the 7,731.88 conversion of the dataset’s 7,700 resistance follow. All four sit within 11.38 points of the settle. The 7,734.50 post-settlement print comes next. Then a tight group. The 20-day average at 7,741.25, the 7,741.83 retracement from the four-week high, Wednesday’s 7,746.25 high (cash 7,714.37), the 7,746.47 retracement from the 13-week high, the 7,748.75 crossing price for the 40-day average and the 50-day at 7,750.25 sit within 9.00. Wednesday’s high stopped 0.22 beneath 7,746.47.
Higher up sit the 7,754.25 settle of 10/29 and the 7,783.25 settle of 10/28. One standard deviation resistance at 7,800.58 and Pivot R1 at 7,814.50 (cash 7,782.62) are the extended references. The one-range frame top at 7,822.30, two deviations at 7,833.75 and three at 7,859.20 follow. The 7,897.50 one-month high and the 7,905.00 52-week and 13-week high from 08/13 (cash 7,873.12) come next, with Pivot R2 at 7,908.50 just 3.50 above that high. The 52-week high sits 184.50 points above the settle, which is 2.33 percent beneath it, measured against the high. The 8,029.35 pair and 8,031.88 conversion for the 8,000 concentration, Pivot R3 at 8,070.75 and the 8,129.35 ceiling pair complete the list.
Support starts 16.00 points down, at the 100-day average at 7,704.50 (cash 7,672.62). The 7,697.50 retracement of the 13-week range and the 7,693.75 retracement of the four-week range follow. The 9-day average at 7,686.25 sits inside the setup band. Then the threshold group. The 7,679.75 cash-session low, the 7,676.88 conversion of the 7,645 threshold and the dataset’s 7,674.35 pair sit within 5.40. The 7,664.50 40-day stall level, the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 (cash 7,620.37) and the 5-day average at 7,652.00 come next. One standard deviation support sits at 7,640.42.
Beneath that sit the 7,633.50 high of the 6:30 PM ET bar, the 7,631.88 conversion of the dataset’s 7,600 pivot, Tuesday’s 7,623.75 high and the one-range frame bottom at 7,618.70. The 7,612.88 conversion of the 7,581 flip level, its 7,610.35 pair, Wednesday’s 7,610.25 open and two deviations at 7,607.25 sit within 5.63. Tuesday’s 7,596.75 settle and three deviations at 7,581.80 follow. Deeper still sit Pivot S1 at 7,558.25 (cash 7,526.37), Tuesday’s 7,546.00 low, the 7,531.88 conversion of the put-side base and its 7,529.35 pair. Wednesday’s 7,490.00 low is now the one-month and 13-week low. The 200-day at 7,436.50, the 7,431.88 conversion of the 7,400 support, Pivot S2 at 7,396.00 and Pivot S3 at 7,302.00 complete the list.
The averages split around the settle. It sits 68.50 points above the 5-day, 34.25 above the 9-day, 16.00 above the 100-day and 284.00 above the 200-day. It sits 20.75 beneath the 20-day and 29.75 beneath the 50-day. Each was rounded once to the 0.25 tick from the 259-session settlement series. The 20-day fell from Tuesday’s 7,748.00 and the 50-day from 7,751.00. The 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged 7,756.15, which keeps the 20-day beneath the 50-day. The 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged 7,658.68 and the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window 7,168.38. The 200-day window starts on 01/22/26. It holds 29 rows with no recorded volume through 04/10/26, deferred-contract records, so that average rests on thin history.
Momentum sits near the middle. On the provider’s published readings, taken at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen, relative strength reads 51.06 on the 9-day, 49.47 on the 14-day and 49.31 on the 20-day. Those readings may already reflect the reopened session’s price. The raw stochastic reads 69.95 percent on the 9-day and 14-day and 58.06 percent on the 20-day. The smoothed 14-day %K at 31.19 percent sits 8.83 above %D at 22.36 percent.
Direction tilts slightly negative. The 9-day ADX reads 26.35, with +DI at 20.44 and -DI at 23.34. The 14-day ADX reads 19.87, with +DI at 19.13 and -DI at 23.94. Negative direction leads narrowly on both, by 2.90 and 4.81. Historic volatility reads 14.69 percent on the 9-day and 14.06 percent on the 14-day.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday is 48 percent sell, against 72 percent sell a session earlier. Its strength is described as minimum and its direction as weakest, and the trend composite reads sell. A week ago the snapshot read 64 percent buy, and a month ago 88 percent buy. The short-horizon group averages 80 percent sell, the medium-horizon group 50 percent sell and the long-horizon group 33 percent buy.
Wednesday’s range ran far past the averages. The 14-day average true range stands at 101.80 points and the 14-day average daily range at 105.13. The 9-day figures are 112.58 and 107.97, the 20-day figures 95.34 and 94.70. One average true range either side of the settle frames Thursday between 7,618.70 and 7,822.30. The deviation bands run 7,640.42 to 7,800.58 at one deviation, 7,607.25 to 7,833.75 at two and 7,581.80 to 7,859.20 at three. Built from five settlements, they describe dispersion and say nothing of intraday reach. The dataset’s implied one-day move is 0.61 percent.
Zoom out. Daily ranges over the last ten sessions, from 10/22, ran 122.00, 65.75, 87.75, 73.00, 69.25, 64.25, 154.75, 123.00, 77.75 and 256.25 points. Settlement changes read minus 95.75, minus 44.75, plus 54.75, plus 43.75, plus 25.00, minus 29.00, minus 140.25, minus 39.50, plus 22.25 and plus 123.75. Two gains followed three declines. Over five sessions the contract is down 62.75 points from the 7,783.25 settle of 10/28, which the provider publishes as a 0.81 percent five-day change. Wednesday opened 13.50 points above Tuesday’s settle.
The Dow rose 3.03 percent while the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent
News items keep their own times here. None is tied to a price move. The 30-minute bars place Wednesday’s low in the 10:00 PM ET bar and the high in the 1:00 PM ET bar, and the bars carry no cause.
Leadership rotated. The Dow industrials rose 3.03 percent and the S&P 500 cash index 1.58 percent, up 119.70 points to 7,688.62. The Nasdaq-100 cash index rose 0.91 percent. The semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent. So the advance was led away from semiconductors. Per the news feed, at 8:36 AM ET an investment-bank sentiment note, attributed commentary, described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence names. A sentiment gauge carried by the feed read 29 out of 100 at 10:18 AM ET.
Commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results, attributed and unconfirmed, described stocks and bonds rallying as oil fell. No move is tied to it.
Other markets moved at the same time. December crude fell 8.29 percent to 88.12 and December gold rose 3.37 percent to 4,073.0. The ten-year yield index eased to 4.89 percent from 4.95 percent. The dollar index’s daily record closed at 101.57 against 101.87. The volatility index closed at 16.61, down from 20.83. These moves coincided with the equity advance, and nothing in the data separates their effects.
Data came in mixed. Per the news-feed calendar, the private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against a forecast of 67 thousand. The services purchasing managers’ survey, released at 10:00 AM ET, read 54.5 against 54.8, with prices paid at 73.0 against 74.6, per the same calendar. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, as the calendar lists it. Per the news feed the deficit was 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion. At 2:04 PM ET the news feed carried a Treasury buyback that accepted 6 billion dollars of 39.636 billion offered.
Two policy items ran in the afternoon. At 1:22 PM ET the news feed carried a regional press report that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday. At 1:45 PM ET it carried a Treasury statement on sanctions. Both are reports carried by the feed and remain unconfirmed. No move is tied to either.
Results came after the bell. At 4:00 PM ET the news feed carried a chipmaker’s fiscal fourth-quarter results: adjusted earnings of 2.17 dollars against 2.16 and revenue of 10.44 billion against 10.12 billion. Its first-quarter guidance ran 2.15 to 2.35 dollars against an estimate of 2.32. A chip designer reported revenue of 1.44 billion against 1.38 billion, per the same feed. The feed also carried, at 2:45 PM ET, reports that a large technology company had cut internal artificial-intelligence usage budgets. At 4:03 PM ET it carried a 25 billion dollar bond offering by a large software company. These are company results and reports carried by the feed.
Activity rose. Wednesday’s December volume was 2,329,405 contracts on the 2026-11-04 row, against 1,645,013 on Tuesday’s revised 2026-11-03 row, a rise of 684,392 or 41.6 percent. Our Wednesday outlook carried the preliminary 1,579,232 for Tuesday. Tuesday’s open interest now reads 1,958,622 on the revised 2026-11-03 row, 5,177 beneath Monday’s 1,963,799. Wednesday’s final open interest was not yet reported.
The dealer-positioning dataset used here, the edition timed 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, takes Tuesday’s closes as its reference prices. Its 7,568 index reference sits 0.92 beneath Tuesday’s 7,568.92 cash close. Its 28,180 Nasdaq-100 reference sits 0.26 beneath Tuesday’s 28,180.26. Tuesday’s 7,568.92 plus 119.70 points, a 1.58 percent gain, gives the 7,688.62 close. Its narrative states the close as 7,689.
The close now sits above the model levels. It sits 43.62 points above the 7,645 modeled volatility threshold (ES 7,676.88 at the measured basis, dataset pair 7,674.35). It sits 107.62 above the 7,581 modeled gamma-flip level (ES 7,612.88, pair 7,610.35) and 188.62 above the 7,500 put-side support base (ES 7,531.88, pair 7,529.35). Overhead, the 8,000 gamma concentration sits 311.38 points above the close and the 8,100 call-side ceiling 411.38. In the dataset’s model, gamma tilt reads 0.827, gamma notional minus 589.303 million dollars and the gamma index minus 2.438. Its implied moves are 0.61 percent for one day, about 46.90 points on the close, and 1.48 percent for five. Its 25-delta risk reversal reads minus 0.061. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs; neither is an option strike.
The dataset draws its own map. Its summary lists resistance at 7,700, a dealer-positioning pivot at 7,600 and support at 7,600, 7,500 and 7,400. Its key strikes are 8,000, 7,000, 7,700 and 7,600, all in cash. At the measured basis the 7,700 resistance converts to 7,731.88, the 7,600 pivot to 7,631.88 and the 7,400 support to 7,431.88. The dataset’s summary treats the index as constructive above its 7,600 pivot. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path here comes from the futures bars.
The console adds detail. The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:18 PM ET, still carried Tuesday’s 7,568.92 as its last close. Its 7,704.40 console price is a console reading and differs from Wednesday’s cash close. It shows model call gamma of minus 3.07 billion against put gamma of minus 3.71 billion. One-month implied volatility reads 16.15 percent against realised volatility of 11.35 percent, 4.80 points apart. The implied-volatility rank reads 37.27 percent, the skew rank 38.00 percent and the put-to-call open-interest ratio 1.42. The dataset’s gamma figures and the console’s come from different models and timestamps, and neither is summed with the other.
Damping is the question for Thursday. In the review’s interpretation a cash close above the modeled threshold at 7,645 and the flip level at 7,581, with the dataset’s gamma notional still negative, describes a mixed environment. In the same interpretation, dealer hedging is less likely to extend declines while the index holds above the threshold. In that interpretation, the 7,700 resistance, 11.38 points above the close, is the first dataset reference overhead. Gamma is a damping lens. It carries no direction of its own.
The trade map for Thursday
The primary setup for Thursday, November 5, is a long from 7,680 to 7,688. It reverses Wednesday’s direction, with the band bottom 153.00 points higher. The contract rose 123.75 to settle at 90.0 percent of an outside-day range, the cash index closed above the modeled threshold and flip level, and the composite eased to 48 percent sell with direction weakest. Now the geometry. The whole band sits beneath Wednesday’s settle, its top 32.50 points down and its bottom 40.50 down. So the long asks for a pullback first. The band bottom sits 3.12 above the 7,676.88 threshold conversion and 0.25 above the 7,679.75 cash-session low, and the 9-day average at 7,686.25 sits inside the band. The stop at 7,662 sits 18.00 beneath the band, 2.50 beneath the 7,664.50 40-day stall level and 9.75 above the Pivot Point at 7,652.25. Targets step up from the band. The first, 7,706, sits 8.50 above the 7,697.50 retracement and 14.50 beneath the settle. The second, 7,728, sits 7.50 above the settle, 0.44 beneath the 7,728.44 target price and 3.88 beneath the 7,731.88 resistance conversion. The extended 7,750 sits 0.25 beneath the 50-day average and 29.50 above the settle. The evidence against is plain. The 20-day and 50-day averages sit 20.75 and 29.75 above the settle and could cap a rebound. The review calls the setup an analyst judgment that pullbacks toward the threshold are bought. No measured edge stands behind it.
Now the arithmetic. From the 7,684 midpoint the risk to the stop is 22 points, 21.6 percent of the 14-day average true range of 101.80. The targets sit 22, 44 and 66 points above the midpoint. Exact multiples. From the settle the midpoint sits 36.50 points lower, the pullback the setup needs. The invalidation line, the Pivot Point at 7,652.25, sits 9.75 beneath the stop and 0.25 above the 5-day average.
The session bands are the review’s analyst judgment. For the night session, 6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, the bias is neutral to higher above the 7,676.88 threshold conversion, with a band of roughly 7,690 to 7,760. That band starts 2.00 above the setup band’s top. The Japanese services survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. London, 3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET, carries a neutral bias above the conversion and runs roughly 7,685 to 7,760, starting inside the setup band. The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar with a forecast rise to 4 percent from 3.75 percent, unconfirmed.
Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, as the calendar lists it. Weekly jobless claims are listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Federal Reserve speakers are listed at 8:50 AM ET, 9:10 AM ET and 7:00 PM ET, also unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of whether Wednesday’s advance holds above the 7,700 resistance. The morning band, 9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET, runs roughly 7,670 to 7,775, with the setup band near its bottom. The afternoon band, 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET, runs the same 7,670 to 7,775. Remarks from the European Central Bank’s leadership are listed at 11:00 AM ET and 1:00 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
The scenario ranges, also analyst judgment, run 7,690 to 7,760 for the low-range case, 7,660 to 7,790 for the mid-range case, the most likely, and 7,620 to 7,820 for the high-range case. The low-range case never reaches the setup band. Its bottom sits 2.00 above 7,688. The 4:00 PM ET settle fixes the reference ahead of Friday. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, and remarks by the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision for 12:15 PM ET that day, as the calendar lists them.
Three paths, ranked. In the review’s analyst judgment the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 and the 50-day average at 7,750.25. In the same judgment, a pullback toward the 7,693.75 retracement and the 7,676.88 threshold conversion that holds above the threshold is weighted above a decline through the Pivot Point. That is our base case. The review weighs it that way because the settle sits at 90.0 percent of the range and above the 5-day, 9-day, 100-day and 200-day averages. The cash index closed above the modeled threshold and flip level, and the volatility index fell to 16.61. Against that, the composite still reads 48 percent sell. In the review’s interpretation the 7,741.25 to 7,750.25 band of the 20-day and 50-day averages is the first test above. The second scenario is a settle beneath the Pivot Point. It would invalidate the reading and could bring the 7,631.88 pivot conversion and the 7,612.88 flip-level conversion into play. The third runs higher first. A move through the 50-day at 7,750.25 before any pullback could bring one standard deviation resistance at 7,800.58 into play without the entry the setup needs.
Wednesday’s short met its stop one bar after its band traded; Thursday’s long sits 36.50 points beneath the settle at its midpoint, so the pullback has to come first.
The complete data picture
Every number behind Thursday’s plan, charted first, then the full level lists, then the complete numeric reference underneath.
Full numeric reference, every remaining figure from the session review
1. Executive Summary
The December S&P 500 contract settled at 7,720.50 on Wednesday, up 123.75 or 1.63 percent from Tuesday's settle of 7,596.75, after trading between 7,746.25 and 7,490.00, a 256.25 point daily range. The settle finished at 90.0 percent of the range, and the range was 2.44 multiples of the 14-day average daily range of 105.13 points. Wednesday's high exceeded Tuesday's 7,623.75 by 122.50 and its low undercut Tuesday's 7,546.00 by 56.00, an outside day, and it was the second consecutive higher settle. The 123.75 point gain is the largest one-session point gain since 08/04/26, when the contract rose 139.00, the 7,490.00 low is the lowest since the 7,396.00 low of 07/30/26, and the settle is the highest since 10/29/26, when the contract settled at 7,754.25. The 256.25 point range is the widest of the 259 completed sessions in the series.
The session ran in two phases. The overnight hours fell from the 7,633.50 high of the 6:30 PM ET bar to the 7,490.00 low in the 10:00 PM ET bar, and the 7:00 PM ET, 8:00 PM ET and 9:00 PM ET bars fell 26.25, 30.00 and 23.00 while the news feed carried commentary on the US midterm election results, with no bar tied to it. From the 11:30 PM ET bar the contract recovered, and the 9:30 AM ET bar rose 43.00 and the 11:30 AM ET bar 44.50, the largest gain of any 30-minute bar in the session, before the 1:00 PM ET bar made the 7,746.25 high. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,688.62, up 119.70 or 1.58 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.03 percent and the Nasdaq-100 0.91 percent, while the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent and the volatility index closed lower at 16.61.
Attributed and unconfirmed commentary carried by the news feed on the US midterm election results described stocks and bonds rallying as oil fell, and an investment-bank sentiment note carried by the feed described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence names; these are attributed commentary and unconfirmed. December crude fell 8.29 percent, the ten-year yield eased to 4.89 percent and the dollar index to 101.57; these moves coincided with the equity advance, and no series in the review separates their effects. The contract traded at 7,734.50 at the close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, 14.00 above the settle.
The composite multi-indicator read published for Thursday is "48% SELL" with strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest", against "72% SELL" a session earlier. The cash index closed above the dataset's modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,645 and modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,581, and 11.38 points beneath its SPX 7,700 resistance. The primary setup is a long from the 7,680 to 7,688 band above the 7,676.88 conversion of the modeled volatility threshold, stopped at 7,662, with objectives at 7,706, 7,728 and an extended 7,750.
2. Price Action & Technical Structure
2.1 Intraday and Session Review
The Wednesday session opened at 7,610.25 at the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen, 13.50 above Tuesday's settle, and the 30-minute series of the December contract places the low of 7,490.00 in the 10:00 PM ET bar and the high of 7,746.25 in the 1:00 PM ET bar. The 7:00 PM ET bar fell 26.25, the 8:00 PM ET bar 30.00 and the 9:00 PM ET bar 23.00, and the news feed carried commentary on the US midterm election results through those hours, and the two coincided; the series does not establish that any of it caused a particular bar.
From the 11:30 PM ET bar, which rose 30.00, the contract recovered, and between 3:00 AM ET and the 9:30 AM ET cash open it traded between 7,588.25 and 7,692.50. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 43.00 from 7,683.00 to 7,726.00, and through the cash session the 30-minute bars held between 7,679.75, the low of that 9:30 AM ET bar, and the 7,746.25 high. The 11:30 AM ET bar rose 44.50 from 7,695.25 to 7,739.75, and from the 12:00 PM ET bar to the 3:30 PM ET bar the contract held between 7,712.75 and 7,746.25. The settle of 7,720.50 sits 1.25 beneath the 7,721.75 close of the 3:30 PM ET bar, and the 4:30 PM ET bar closed at 7,734.50.
Wednesday's completed range is taken from the settlement record and the published pivot ladder. Pivot R3 at 8,070.75 minus Pivot S3 at 7,302.00, divided by three, returns 256.25, and Pivot R2 at 7,908.50 minus Pivot S2 at 7,396.00, divided by two, returns the same 256.25. Three times the Pivot Point of 7,652.25 less the 7,720.50 settle gives a high plus low sum of 15,236.25, which solves to a high of 7,746.25 and a low of 7,490.00; that pair reproduces all seven published rungs. These are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they are corroborated by the provider's settlement row and the chart's completed daily bar, which carry the same 7,610.25 open, 7,746.25 high, 7,490.00 low and 7,720.50 settle.
2.2 Daily Structure
Wednesday was an outside day against Tuesday. Settlements over the last six sessions read 7,783.25, 7,754.25, 7,614.00, 7,574.50, 7,596.75 and 7,720.50, so the contract has risen on Tuesday and Wednesday after three lower settles. Over five sessions the contract is down 62.75 from the 7,783.25 settle of 10/28, which the provider also publishes as a 0.81 percent five-day change.
The provider publishes 7,905.00 as the 52-week and 13-week high and 7,897.50 as the one-month high, and the settle sits 2.33 percent beneath the 52-week high. Wednesday's 7,490.00 low is now published as the one-month and 13-week low.
2.3 4-Hour and Swing Structure
Daily ranges for the last ten sessions, from 10/22, ran 122.00, 65.75, 87.75, 73.00, 69.25, 64.25, 154.75, 123.00, 77.75 and 256.25, so Wednesday's range was the widest of the ten. In the 30-minute series the three largest gains came in the 11:30 AM ET bar, 44.50, the 9:30 AM ET bar, 43.00, and the 11:30 PM ET bar, 30.00, and the three largest declines in the 8:00 PM ET bar, 30.00, the 7:00 PM ET bar, 26.25, and the 9:00 PM ET bar, 23.00.
The published grid places the 50 percent retracement of the four-week range at 7,693.75, the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 7,697.50, the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 7,741.83 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 7,746.47, so Wednesday's high stopped 0.22 beneath the last of these.
2.4 Moving Averages
The averages cited here were computed from the provider's daily settlement series for the December contract, which holds 259 completed sessions from 10/27/25 through Wednesday; the partial row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded, and each average is carried at full precision and rounded once to the quarter point. The 5-day average stands at 7,652.00, the 9-day at 7,686.25, the 20-day at 7,741.25, the 50-day at 7,750.25, the 100-day at 7,704.50 and the 200-day at 7,436.50.
The 7,720.50 settle sits 68.50 above the 5-day average, 34.25 above the 9-day, 16.00 above the 100-day and 284.00 above the 200-day, and 20.75 beneath the 20-day and 29.75 beneath the 50-day. The 200-day window, which starts on 01/22/26, contains 29 rows with no recorded volume between 01/22/26 and 04/10/26, deferred-contract records from before the December contract became active, so the 200-day average rests on thin history. The 20-day average fell from Tuesday's 7,748.00 and the 50-day from 7,751.00.
The 20-day average sits beneath the 50-day because the 30 older settlements in the 50-day window averaged higher, at 7,756.15. The 50-day sits above the 100-day because the 50 older settlements in the 100-day window averaged lower, at 7,658.68, and the 100-day sits above the 200-day because the 100 older settlements in the 200-day window averaged lower, at 7,168.38. The projection grid gives 7,723.03 as the price at which the 18-day average would be crossed on Thursday and 7,748.75 for the 40-day average.
2.5 Oscillator and Trend Readings
The oscillator figures below are as published on the provider's technical page, read at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen; they are the provider's readings, none was computed for this review, and the page may already reflect the reopened session's price. The 9-day relative strength reads 51.06, the 14-day relative strength 49.47 and the 20-day relative strength 49.31.
The 9-day and 14-day raw stochastic both read 69.95 percent and the 20-day raw stochastic 58.06 percent, while the 14-day stochastic %K reads 31.19 percent and the 14-day stochastic %D 22.36 percent. The 9-day directional index ADX reads 26.35 with the 9-day +DI at 20.44 and the 9-day -DI at 23.34, and the 14-day directional index ADX reads 19.87 with the 14-day +DI at 19.13 and the 14-day -DI at 23.94, so negative direction leads narrowly on both systems. The 9-day historic volatility reads 14.69 percent and the 14-day historic volatility 14.06 percent.
The composite multi-indicator read published for the Thursday session is "48% SELL", with signal strength "Minimum" and direction "Weakest". The snapshot history reads "72% SELL" for the prior session, "64% BUY" a week ago and "88% BUY" a month ago. The short horizon group averages "80% SELL", the medium group "50% SELL" and the long group "33% BUY", and the trend composite reads "SELL".
2.6 Volatility and Expected Range
The published 14-day average true range stands at 101.80 points and the 14-day average daily range at 105.13 points; the 9-day average true range is 112.58 with a 9-day average daily range of 107.97, and the 20-day average true range is 95.34 with a 20-day average daily range of 94.70. Wednesday's 256.25 point range was 2.44 multiples of the 14-day average daily range.
Adding and subtracting the 14-day average true range of 101.80 from the 7,720.50 settle frames Thursday between 7,618.70 and 7,822.30. The published standard-deviation bands, built from five settlements, span 7,640.42 to 7,800.58 at one deviation, 7,607.25 to 7,833.75 at two and 7,581.80 to 7,859.20 at three. The dataset's implied one-day move for the index is 0.61 percent. These bands describe dispersion, not intraday reach.
3. Key Levels
3.1 Resistance
Above the 7,720.50 settle, the first references are the 7,723.03 18-day crossing price, the 7,727.54 projection for a 50 percent 14-day relative strength, the published target price at 7,728.44 and the 7,731.88 conversion of the dataset's SPX 7,700 resistance. The 20-day average at 7,741.25, Wednesday's 7,746.25 high, the 7,746.47 retracement from the 13-week high and the 50-day average at 7,750.25 form the next band. One standard deviation resistance at 7,800.58 and Pivot R1 at 7,814.50 are the extended references, with the 7,905.00 52-week high beyond.
3.2 Support
Beneath the settle sit the 7,697.50 retracement of the 13-week range, the 7,693.75 retracement of the four-week range and the 9-day average at 7,686.25. The 7,676.88 conversion of the modeled volatility threshold, the source's own futures pair for it at 7,674.35 and the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 form the next band, with one standard deviation support at 7,640.42 beneath. The 7,612.88 conversion of the modeled gamma-flip level, Pivot S1 at 7,558.25 and the 7,531.88 conversion of the put side support base are the deeper references, with Wednesday's 7,490.00 low beyond.
4. Macro Drivers
4.1 Dollar, Rates, and Fed Policy
The ten-year yield index closed lower at 4.89 percent. The dollar index's daily record closed at 101.57, beneath Tuesday's 101.87. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against a forecast of 67 thousand, and the services purchasing managers' survey released at 10:00 AM ET read 54.5 against 54.8, with prices paid at 73.0 against 74.6, per the news-feed calendar. At 2:04 PM ET the news feed carried a Treasury buyback that accepted 6 billion dollars of 39.636 billion offered. Federal Reserve speakers are listed for Thursday at 8:50 AM ET, 9:10 AM ET and 7:00 PM ET by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
4.2 Large-Cap Leadership and Earnings
After the cash close the news feed carried a chipmaker's fiscal fourth-quarter results at 4:00 PM ET, adjusted earnings of 2.17 dollars against 2.16 and revenue of 10.44 billion against 10.12 billion, with first-quarter guidance of 2.15 to 2.35 dollars against an estimate of 2.32, and a chip designer's results with revenue of 1.44 billion against 1.38 billion. It also carried at 2:45 PM ET reports that a large technology company had cut internal artificial-intelligence usage budgets and at 4:03 PM ET a 25 billion dollar bond offering by a large software company. These are company results and reports carried by the feed.
4.3 Geopolitical Backdrop
The news feed carried at 1:22 PM ET a regional press report that the course of US and Iran negotiations would become clearer on Friday, and at 1:45 PM ET a Treasury statement on sanctions. These are reports carried by the feed, not confirmed events, and no move is tied to them.
4.4 Sector Breadth and Rotation
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.03 percent and the S&P 500 1.58 percent, while the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.91 percent and the semiconductor index fell 3.13 percent, so the advance was led away from semiconductors. The news feed carried at 8:36 AM ET an investment-bank sentiment note that described a rotation away from artificial-intelligence names, which is attributed commentary. A sentiment gauge carried by the feed read 29 out of 100 at 10:18 AM ET.
4.5 Cross-Asset and Volatility
The volatility index closed lower at 16.61, beneath Tuesday's close. December crude fell 8.29 percent to 88.12 and December gold rose 3.37 percent to 4,073.0. The futures settle carried a 31.88 point basis over the 7,688.62 cash close, against 27.83 on Tuesday, both measured as the settle less the provider's cash close on the same completed session.
4.6 Institutional Positioning
Wednesday's December volume was 2,329,405 contracts against 1,645,013 on Tuesday, per the settlement record; Wednesday's open interest was not yet reported.
5. SPX Options Flow Context
The dealer-positioning dataset read for this section, the edition timed 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, uses Tuesday's closes as its reference prices, not Wednesday's: SPX 7,568 sits 0.92 beneath Tuesday's 7,568.92 cash close and NDX 28,180 sits 0.26 beneath Tuesday's 28,180.26. Tuesday's 7,568.92 plus 119.70 points, a 1.58 percent gain, gives the provider's 7,688.62 close, which the dataset's narrative also states as 7,689; every level below is read against the provider's close.
On the index the primary call side ceiling sits at SPX 8,100, the largest gamma concentration at SPX 8,000, the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,645, the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,581 and the primary put side support base at SPX 7,500. The close sits 411.38 points beneath the ceiling and 311.38 beneath the largest concentration, and 43.62 above the threshold, 107.62 above the flip level and 188.62 above the put side base. Gamma tilt reads 0.827, gamma notional minus 589.303 million dollars and the dataset's gamma index minus 2.438, with an implied one-day move of 0.61 percent, an implied five-day move of 1.48 percent and a 25-delta risk reversal of minus 0.061. The dataset's summary lists resistance at 7,700, its dealer-positioning pivot at 7,600 and support at 7,600, 7,500 and 7,400, and its key strikes are SPX 8,000, 7,000, 7,700 and 7,600.
The dataset publishes its own December futures pair for each level, carrying the source's 29.35 point offset and not the measured 31.88 point basis: the ceiling at 8,129.35, the largest concentration at 8,029.35, the modeled volatility threshold at 7,674.35, the modeled gamma-flip level at 7,610.35 and the put side support base at 7,529.35. These are quoted as the source's pairs. The modeled threshold and flip level are model outputs, not option strikes. At the measured basis the SPX 7,400 support converts to 7,431.88, the SPX 7,500 base to 7,531.88, the SPX 7,581 flip level to 7,612.88, the SPX 7,600 pivot to 7,631.88, the SPX 7,645 threshold to 7,676.88, the SPX 7,700 resistance to 7,731.88 and the SPX 8,000 concentration to 8,031.88.
The dataset's summary treats the index as constructive above its 7,600 pivot. Statements in the dataset about the order of intraday moves are not used; the session path in section 2.1 comes from the 30-minute futures series.
The S&P 500 positioning console, read at 6:18 PM ET, carried Tuesday's 7,568.92 as its last close and a console price of 7,704.40, which is a console reading rather than Wednesday's cash close. It shows call gamma of minus 3.07 billion against put gamma of minus 3.71 billion, one-month implied volatility of 16.15 percent against realised volatility of 11.35 percent, an implied-volatility rank of 37.27 percent, a skew rank of 38.00 percent and a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 1.42.
In this review's interpretation a cash close above the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,645 and the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,581, with the dataset's gamma notional still negative, describes a mixed environment: dealer hedging is less likely to extend declines while the index holds above the threshold, and the SPX 7,700 resistance, 11.38 points above the close, is the first dataset reference overhead. The primary setup buys the 7,680 to 7,688 band just above the 7,676.88 conversion of the threshold, with the stop above the Pivot Point at 7,652.25.
6. Forecast
6.1 Night Session (6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 3:00 AM ET Thursday, Globex/Asia)
Globex reopened at 6:00 PM ET. The Japanese services survey at 7:30 PM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. Bias neutral to higher above the 7,676.88 threshold conversion, expected band roughly 7,690 to 7,760, its bottom 2.00 above the 7,688 top of the setup band.
6.2 London Session (3:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET Thursday)
The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET is listed by the news-feed calendar with a forecast rise to 4 percent from 3.75 percent, unconfirmed. Bias neutral above the threshold conversion, expected band roughly 7,685 to 7,760.
6.3 Morning Session (9:30 AM to 12:00 PM ET Thursday, RTH Open)
Preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with weekly jobless claims listed at the same time by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed. The cash open at 9:30 AM ET is the first directional test of whether Wednesday's advance holds above the SPX 7,700 resistance. Expected band roughly 7,670 to 7,775, with the 7,680 to 7,688 setup band near the bottom.
6.4 Afternoon Session (12:00 PM to 4:00 PM ET Thursday)
The remarks from the European Central Bank's leadership at 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed, and the 4:00 PM ET settle fixes the reference ahead of Friday's employment report. Expected band roughly 7,670 to 7,775.
6.5 Night Session Forward (6:00 PM ET Thursday)
The Thursday evening session at 6:00 PM ET carries the settle into Friday. The employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, as the calendar lists it.
6.6 Expected Range (Thursday Full Session)
Low-range scenario: 7,690 to 7,760 (its bottom 2.00 above the setup band)
Mid-range scenario (most likely): 7,660 to 7,790
High-range scenario: 7,620 to 7,820
6.7 Most Likely Path
In this review's analyst judgment, the most probable path holds the contract between the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 and the 50-day average at 7,750.25, with a pullback toward the 7,693.75 retracement and the 7,676.88 threshold conversion that holds above the threshold weighted above a decline through the Pivot Point at 7,652.25. The settle sits at 90.0 percent of the range, above the 5-day, 9-day, 100-day and 200-day averages, the cash index closed above the modeled threshold and flip level and the volatility index fell to 16.61, while the composite still reads "48% SELL" and the 20-day and 50-day averages at 7,741.25 and 7,750.25 sit just above the settle, which in this review's interpretation makes the 7,741.25 to 7,750.25 band the first test above.
The alternative that would invalidate this reading is a settle beneath the Pivot Point at 7,652.25, which would bring the 7,631.88 pivot conversion and the 7,612.88 flip-level conversion into play. On the other side, a move through the 50-day average at 7,750.25 before any pullback would bring one standard deviation resistance at 7,800.58 into play without the entry the setup needs.
7. Thursday Economic Calendar
Wednesday's releases are complete. The trade report was released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as the calendar lists it, with a deficit of 105.0 billion dollars against a forecast of 107.9 billion, per the news feed. The private payrolls estimate came in at 86 thousand against 67 thousand and the services purchasing managers' survey released at 10:00 AM ET read 54.5 against 54.8, per the news-feed calendar. A chipmaker and a chip designer reported after the cash close, per the news feed.
On Thursday, November 5, 2026, preliminary productivity and costs are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, as the calendar lists it. The Bank of England decision at 7:00 AM ET, weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET, Federal Reserve speakers at 8:50 AM ET and 9:10 AM ET and remarks from the European Central Bank's leadership at 11:00 AM ET and 1:00 PM ET are listed by the news-feed calendar, unconfirmed.
Later, the employment situation report is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, and remarks by the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision at 12:15 PM ET the same day, both as the calendar lists them. In this review's judgment the first-order event for the contract on Thursday is the 9:30 AM ET cash open testing the SPX 7,700 resistance after Wednesday's advance, with the 8:30 AM ET data the scheduled test of yields.
8. Primary Trade Setup
Direction: Long
Rationale: The contract rose 123.75 to settle at 90.0 percent of a 256.25 point outside-day range, the cash index closed above the modeled volatility threshold and flip level, and the composite eased to "48% SELL" with direction "Weakest". A pullback into the 7,680 to 7,688 band, just above the 7,676.88 conversion of the threshold and near the 7,679.75 cash-session low, offers a long with a defined risk point above the Pivot Point at 7,652.25. The 20-day and 50-day averages sit 20.75 and 29.75 above the settle and can cap a rebound, so the setup is an analyst judgment that pullbacks toward the threshold are bought, not a measured edge.
Entry Zone: 7,680 to 7,688
Stop Loss: 7,662 (beneath the 7,664.50 40-day stall and above the Pivot Point at 7,652.25)
Target 1 (T1): 7,706 (above the 7,697.50 retracement)
Target 2 (T2): 7,728 (beneath the 7,728.44 target price and the 7,731.88 resistance conversion)
Target 3 (T3, extended): 7,750 (beneath the 50-day average at 7,750.25)
Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 to T1, 1:2 to T2, 1:3 to T3
Invalidation: A settle beneath the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 negates the thesis. Short of that, the edge is removed by acceptance beneath the entry band, defined as two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 7,680; a touch alone does not remove it.
Macro override: A rise in yields after the 8:30 AM ET data, or a renewed semiconductor decline that spreads to the broad index, would pressure the contract. In that scenario a move through the 7,662 stop invalidates the long before the targets, and the Pivot Point at 7,652.25 becomes the reference, 9.75 beneath the stop and well inside one 14-day average true range of 101.80.
Sources and methodology
This outlook is built from our session review of the December E-mini S&P 500 contract, the December ’26 contract, prepared after Wednesday’s close on November 4, 2026 for the Thursday, November 5, 2026 session. Wednesday’s completed extremes are the inputs behind the published pivot ladder: Pivot R3 at 8,070.75 less Pivot S3 at 7,302.00, divided by three, and Pivot R2 at 7,908.50 less Pivot S2 at 7,396.00, divided by two, both return 256.25, and three times the 7,652.25 Pivot Point less the settle gives a high-plus-low sum of 15,236.25, which the pair of 7,746.25 and 7,490.00 reproduces. The provider’s settlement row and the chart’s completed Wednesday daily bar carry the same 7,610.25 open, 7,746.25 high, 7,490.00 low and 7,720.50 settle. Those figures, the 30-minute bars of the December contract from the Tuesday 6:00 PM ET reopen and the review’s own statements are the only evidence used to grade Wednesday’s card. That card was set at 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, so it is graded from that time forward; the 10:00 PM ET bar straddles the setting time and its internal order is unknown. Times of day come from the bars and are Eastern time. The partial row of the reopened Thursday session is excluded from every count and average. Tuesday’s volume now reads 1,645,013 contracts on the revised 2026-11-03 row, which replaces the preliminary 1,579,232 carried in Wednesday’s outlook, and that row’s open interest reads 1,958,622; that post was not changed. Wednesday’s final open interest was not yet reported.
The moving averages were computed from the provider’s 259-session daily settlement series through Wednesday and rounded once to the 0.25 tick. The oscillators, directional readings, historic volatility and range averages are cited as published, read at 6:21 PM ET on Wednesday after the Globex reopen. The dealer-positioning dataset uses Tuesday’s closes as its reference prices and a fixed 29.35 point translation for its futures column, so cash equivalents here use the 31.88 point basis measured on Wednesday, settlement against cash close. The dataset’s statements about the order of intraday moves are not used. The dataset’s gamma figures and the console’s call and put gamma are separate model measures from different timestamps; they are shown side by side, each with its source, and never combined. Company results are described generically. Scenario ranges are analyst judgment. Items marked unconfirmed come from the news-feed calendar or the news feed, and every catalyst whose release time had passed at the time of writing is recorded as completed.
Wednesday’s outlook for this contract is here, and the Nasdaq-100 contract’s Wednesday outlook set the levels for the index whose cash close rose 0.91 percent on Wednesday. Outlooks for ES, NQ, GC and CL are collected on the market outlook page, and our forward trading record is on the performance statement.
