Market Outlook
Institutional ES futures and SPY options research, gamma levels, and key zones for trading the S&P 500.
Gold Loses All Three of Its Props in a Single Session
Gold near 4,079 is down 1.7% on a 100% sell composite as the war bid, the dollar, and real yields all turn against it. The fade setup and the 4,046 shelf.
S&P 500: A Pullback Inside an Uptrend Meets Negative Gamma
ES near 7,452 steadies below the 7,475 risk pivot after a 1.4% drop, in negative gamma and ahead of chip earnings and PCE. The fade setup and the dealer map.
Crude Oil Bleeds to a 3-Month Low as the War Premium Unwinds
WTI near 72.00 is down 20% in a month as Hormuz reopens and the war premium drains. The sell-the-rally setup and the 71.55 shelf the inventory print decides.
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Gold Breaks Below Every Moving Average at Once
Gold near 4,285 is down 2.2% and below every major moving average as the dollar firms and the war premium deflates. The fade setup and the 4,340 pivot.
Crude Oil's War Premium Keeps Draining Toward the 200-Day
WTI near 73.70 is down 21% in a month as the war premium drains toward the 200-day at 69.75. The oversold setup and the 73.42 shelf that decides the day.
S&P 500 Faces Expiration, Negative Gamma and a Holiday
ES near 7,536 repairs a hawkish-Fed selloff into monthly expiration and a Juneteenth weekend, in negative gamma. The dip-buy setup and the 7,350 flip.
Nasdaq-100 Makes Record Highs Through a Hawkish Fed
NQ near 30,420 prints record highs even after a hawkish Fed lifted its inflation projection. The buy-the-dip setup and the 30,500 to 31,100 resistance.
Crude Oil Is Oversold and Stabilizing Into the Fed
WTI is oversold near 75.6 after a 24% monthly collapse, trying to base into the EIA print and the Fed. The sell-the-rally setup and the 76.72 pivot.
Gold Pinned to Its Pivot Before the Fed Decision
Gold is pinned near 4,348 into the Fed, a five-day bounce against an 88% sell composite. The fade-strength setup and the 4,352 pivot that decides the day.
Nasdaq Claws Back the Chip Selloff Into the Fed
NQ near 30,470 claws back half of Tuesday's semiconductor selloff into the Fed, on a fragile negative-gamma backdrop. The buy-the-shelf setup and the levels.
S&P 500 Compresses a Percent Below Its Record Into the Fed
ES compresses near 7,595, a percent below its record, into the Fed on a freshly negative-gamma backdrop. The post-decision long setup and the dealer levels.
Crude's War Premium Collapse Hits a Two-Month Low
WTI fell to a two-month low at 77.25, down nearly 10% on the week, as the US-Iran deal drains the war premium. The sell-the-rally setup and the 75.45 magnet.
Gold Firms on a Softer Dollar Even as Oil Collapses
Gold rose to 4,365 on a softer dollar and falling yields, holding above the 4,342 pivot even on a risk-on day. The counter-trend long setup and the levels.
S&P 500 Holds Record Highs Before the Fed Decision
ES holds near 7,628 record proximity in a no-data pre-Fed session, with positive gamma capping at 7,671 and buying dips. The long-the-dip setup and the levels.
Nasdaq Compresses at a Record High Before the Fed
NQ holds a record high near 30,950, compressing under the 30,971 pivot with the strongest upside flow in a month, into Fed week. The buy-the-shelf setup and levels.
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Crude Crashes 5.5% as the US-Iran War Deal Lands
WTI gapped down 5.5% to 80.15 as a US-Iran deal to end the war reopens Hormuz and drains the supply premium. The sell-the-rally setup and the 77.22 magnet.
Gold Bounces 7.75% Off the Low as War Premium Unwinds
Gold is up 2.9% to 4,360, about 7.75% off the June-11 low, as a US-Iran deal unwinds the war premium. The counter-trend long setup and the 4,432 trend line.
S&P 500 Gaps Into Its 7,500 Ceiling Before the Fed
ES gapped 1.3% to 7,535 on the US-Iran deal, into the 7,500-7,550 gamma band two days before the Fed. The long-the-dip setup and the pin-and-fade risk.
Nasdaq Gaps Toward a Record on the US-Iran Deal
NQ gapped 2% higher toward the 30,807 record on a weekend US-Iran peace deal, but Fed week caps the runway. The buy-the-dip setup and the levels that gate it.
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ES vs SPX vs SPY: Three Ways to Trade the S&P 500
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ES, NQ, MES & MNQ Futures: Contract Specs & Point Value
ES futures are worth $50 per point ($12.50 a tick), NQ $20 per point, MES $5, MNQ $2. Full 2026 contract specs: tick sizes, margins, and trading hours.